The five factors that could help Michigan win the national title
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — The mood inside Michigan’s Crisler Center media room late Saturday afternoon was equally reflective and forward-looking.
Michigan had beaten rival Ohio State and won the Big Ten East. The division title didn’t come as a surprise, given the strong roster the Wolverines returned in 2023, but it continued a historic season. This was the first time Michigan had beaten its rival three straight times since 1997, the program’s last national championship season.
As the Wolverines return to the Big Ten championship game for the third consecutive year, they have national championship aspirations again.
Safety Rod Moore‘s diving interception of an underthrown pass by Ohio State’s Kyle McCord secured Michigan’s 30-24 win Saturday and ensured a return to Indianapolis. But the twists and turns of Michigan’s journey have made this season stand apart from the school’s past two championship runs.
“It’s been a lot,” quarterback J.J. McCarthy said.
Michigan won six of its 12 games without coach Jim Harbaugh on the sideline because of two separate suspensions. The program has been under intense scrutiny since mid-October, when the NCAA began investigating an off-campus scouting/signal-stealing operation led by former staff member Connor Stalions. There have also been standard obstacles, like injuries to key starters — guard Zak Zinter, cornerback Will Johnson — in the Ohio State game. But whether self-created or not, Michigan found ways to navigate whatever obstacles fell in its path, reaching 1,001 all-time wins.
“No one cried, no one whined,” running back Blake Corum said. “It was like, ‘OK, this is what we have to do.’ The job has to get done, no matter what.”
And there’s still work left to do as Michigan faces No. 17 Iowa this coming Saturday. A win would give the Wolverines three straight outright Big Ten championships for the first time in team history.
“It’s been a tremendous season, right in the exact position that we hoped for, that we worked so hard to be in,” Harbaugh said Sunday. “It’s onward now. We’ve accomplished many of our goals, but not all of them yet.”
Here are five factors that helped Michigan complete its journey back to Indianapolis and could help the Wolverines finally win an elusive national title.
1. A veteran-laden roster that doesn’t flinch, starting with QB McCarthy
The experience of this Michigan team has been especially important given Harbaugh’s suspension and the intense media scrutiny on the program. Almost every position group boasts numerous players with significant starts or notable field time. Even after a devastating injury like Zinter’s against Ohio State, Michigan responded by moving fifth-year lineman Karsen Barnhart to right guard and then sliding in Trente Jones, another fifth-year player, to Barnhart’s spot at tackle. The offense continued to move.
“We’re always talking about the six best guys, the five best guys, whoever it is,” said Sherrone Moore, who oversees the line.
McCarthy’s savvy has stood out this season as Michigan has asked different things of him than in 2022, when the team rode running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. After an excellent start — he had 2,134 pass yards with 18 touchdowns on 75.7% completions through Michigan’s first nine games — he didn’t attempt a pass down the stretch against Penn State, as the Wolverines called 32 consecutive runs. Then, after a shaky performance last week at Maryland, McCarthy executed a precision passing game to near perfection against Ohio State, completing 16 of 20 attempts for 148 yards and a thread-the-needle touchdown to Roman Wilson. He completed 12 of 12 passes of 5 yards or less, and recorded his fifth game with at least 80% completions, tying Oregon’s Bo Nix for most in the FBS. His mobility also stood out against a fast Buckeyes defense.
“I told him before the game: ‘Listen, when the game matters in some critical situations, I’m going to put the ball in your hands, because I know you’re going to make a great decision,'” Moore said. “I know where his mindset is at, especially on those critical downs.”
2. Moore’s growth as a coach
Harbaugh has generally hired good staff members at Michigan. Several of his ex-assistants have moved on to head-coaching positions or to the NFL. His 2023 staff projected well, especially with two up-and-coming coordinators in Jesse Minter, a Broyles Award finalist in 2022, and Moore. Back in late spring, Michigan had no idea how much of the season Harbaugh would miss and how much it would have to rely on the rest of the coaching staff in his absence.
Although the 37-year-old Moore has never been a head coach and only became a coordinator in 2021, he was the clear choice to lead Michigan on game days during the stretch run. Moore took a necessary conservative approach in an emotionally charged game against Penn State, which has an aggressive defense filled with NFL-level talent, but an offense that was not set up to truly challenge Michigan. He got Michigan through a shaky performance against Maryland, in which the Wolverines needed scores in all three phases to overcome the Terrapins.
Before the Ohio State game, Harbaugh had two messages for Moore: Love you and be you. The latter meant: make more aggressive play calls. Moore kept the offense on the field for three fourth-down opportunities and converted each time, including twice on a 14-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that put Michigan up 14-3 in the second quarter. He also opened the fourth quarter with a halfback pass, as Edwards found tight end Colston Loveland for 34 yards, and mixed in Alex Orji as a “change-up” quarterback and got a 20-yard run.
“Coach Moore said from the get-go that he’s going to call the most aggressive game he’s ever called,” McCarthy said. “For the big boys, for Blake, for myself, it’s music to our ears, just knowing that he has confidence in us to go get that extra yard or go get that 2 yards. It means the world because that’s who we are.”
Harbaugh said Ohio State’s defense was the best he had seen, and Michigan’s game plan required creativity.
“Not a thing I would have changed in the way he called that game and the decisions he made in that kind of environment, that kind of pressure,” Harbaugh said.
Moore’s 3-0 Big Ten stretch without Harbaugh showed that he’s ready to lead his own program. Given the uncertainty about Harbaugh’s future — Harbaugh has interviewed for NFL jobs each of the past two winters, and likely will face another NCAA suspension if he returns to Michigan in 2024 — Moore has emerged as a very capable option to take over at Michigan, whenever that day comes.
3. A defensive front with few stars but plenty of depth
When Michigan broke through in 2021, winning its first Big Ten title in 17 years, its frontman was defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. He shined down the stretch, becoming the Heisman Trophy runner-up and cementing himself as a top NFL draft pick. And Michigan has had plenty of other star defensive linemen during Harbaugh’s tenure — David Ojabo, Kwity Paye, Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich, Taco Charlton, Mazi Smith and Mike Morris.
The 2023 line might not be remembered for its big names, but it will be remembered for its depth, skill, experience and performances in big games. No Michigan defensive lineman has more than 5.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss or five quarterback hurries, but eight have at least 1.5 sacks and seven have multiple QB hurries.
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Sam Acho: Michigan’s defense the difference in win vs. Ohio State
Sam Acho breaks down the keys to Michigan’s victory over Ohio State and the Buckeyes’ chances of reaching the College Football Playoff.
There have been expected contributions from veterans such as tackle Kris Jenkins and end Jaylen Harrell, but sophomore Mason Graham has emerged into a surprise star — he’s tied for the team lead with 6.5 tackles for loss and has contributed three sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. The California native was an ESPN three-star recruit who originally committed to Boise State. And Josaiah Stewart, a Coastal Carolina transfer, has been a valuable addition on the edge.
Kenneth Grant, a 339-pound sophomore, has contributed 2.5 sacks, 5 quarterback hurries and 4 pass breakups, and drew national attention when he raced down Penn State running back Kaytron Allen, saving a possible touchdown and wowing Harbaugh and his teammates.
“We get ourselves just ready for the moment, and when that moment comes, we know what we’re going to do,” Graham said. “That’s a big part of our team in handling adversity.”
4. Those who stayed have positioned Michigan for more championships
The famous Bo Schembechler line that appears everywhere around Michigan’s program — “Those who stay will be champions” — has taken on new and added meaning. Michigan had several players pass up potential NFL opportunities to return for another run at a Big Ten title and the CFP. The “One More Year” fund, started by the Champions Circle NIL collective, helped the program retain standouts such as Corum, Zinter, Jenkins, offensive lineman Trevor Keegan and wide receiver Cornelius Johnson. Michigan also brought back other accomplished players, such as defensive back Mike Sainristil and linebacker Michael Barrett. The Wolverines had only three underclassmen enter the NFL draft — Smith, Morris and cornerback D.J. Turner.
All of Michigan’s returnees have made significant contributions this fall. Sainristil is an All-America candidate, recording five interceptions and five pass breakups, while Barrett leads the team in both forced fumbles (three) and fumble recoveries (two). Johnson recorded his third consecutive season of 32 or more receptions. Zinter and Keegan have anchored a line for a remarkably balanced offense that averages 37.6 points per game.
Although Corum’s overall rushing production (976 yards) doesn’t match what he did last season (1,463), he has gained the most critical yards, setting a Michigan single-season record with 22 rushing touchdowns.
“I just look back and pray that I left a legacy, I stamped my mark here, I made a difference, on and off the field,” Corum said. “Looking back at [the Ohio State game], this is why I came back. I couldn’t go out in the Big House like I did last year, hurt. I’m so appreciative for the University of Michigan.”
5. Special teams remain solid
Michigan didn’t enter the season with many glaring concerns, but special teams carried some question marks after kicker Jake Moody and punter Brad Robbins both were selected in the NFL draft. The Wolverines became only the second team in the past 40 years to have two specialists picked in the same draft. Moody, the 2021 Lou Groza Award winner and Michigan’s career scoring leader, seemed to be a particularly big loss.
But the Wolverines have continued to shine in the kicking game. On Saturday against Ohio State, James Turner went 3-for-3 on field goals, including a 50-yarder early in the third quarter, while Ohio State’s Jayden Fielding missed from 52 yards out to end the first half. Tommy Doman averaged 63.3 yards per punt, placing one at the Ohio State 2-yard line late in the opening half.
“He was money,” Corum said of Turner. “He was calm, cool and collected, hit all of them. Couldn’t ask for a better kicker than my guy, so jolly good fellow to him.”
Turner, a Louisville transfer, is 12-for-14 on field goal attempts this season and 8-for-8 from within 40 yards. Doman averaged 45 yards per punt with 18 fair catches and 14 punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Although Michigan isn’t exceptional on returns, Jake Thaw and Tyler Morris have been a solid tandem on punt runbacks, and the coverage teams haven’t had any busts. The Wolverines’ special teams play shined at Maryland, as they blocked a punt for a safety and downed a Doman punt inside the Terrapins’ 1-yard line, leading to another late safety.
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David Hale
It was just a little more than 10 months ago that Ohio State won a national championship. In the time since, the Buckeyes have only offered further assurance of their greatness, marching through the 2025 season with one emphatic win after another, a convincing No. 1 team in the country entering Rivalry Week.
But, of course, none of that really mattered — not when Michigan still had the last word.
For every genuinely astounding new note on Ohio State’s résumé, there was always the simple retort: “Yeah, but … Michigan.”
For every big win the Buckeyes enjoyed, there was the reminder, like one of those signs that keeps tabs on how many days have passed since the last time someone needed medical treatment after getting their hair caught in the industrial sandblaster. By Saturday, Ohio State’s sign read: 2,191 days.
For all the superstars, high-priced transfers and NFL draft picks who have come and gone over the past six years, none of them could claim a victory over the most hated rival.
And then Saturday, it all changed.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin followed an early interception with a brilliant performance. Wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate were dominant. Bo Jackson powered his way through the Wolverines’ defensive front. The Buckeyes’ defense was stifling, holding Michigan to a mere 163 total yards.
When it was over, Ohio State had exorcised its greatest demon, toppling Michigan 27-9. And to paraphrase the great statesman Hans Gruber, coach Ryan Day could stare out across the vastness of the Big House and weep, for he had no more worlds to conquer.
The Buckeyes’ triumph was less a statement of their dominance; that much had been obvious all along. And while Saturday’s outing felt like affirmation of Sayin’s ascension into the rarified air of the nation’s top QBs, and while it was a performance in which so many of Ohio State’s stars shone their brightest, it was ultimately more of a relief than a victory. Nothing Ohio State did was surprising. This is the team we’ve come to expect. Only, we also had come to expect that in this game, all that makes the Buckeyes great could sneak out the back door, like a head coach facing NCAA sanctions for a comically overwrought sign-stealing scam.
Saturday’s outcome also was relief for Oklahoma. The Sooners’ 17-13 win over LSU was hardly a College Football Playoff-worthy performance. The offense was again frustratingly out of sync, saved only by a pair of big plays — a 48-yard catch-and-run by Deion Burks and a 58-yard bomb to Isaiah Sategna III that proved to be the difference. Instead, Oklahoma continued to rely on an intractable defense, one that held LSU to just 198 total yards and forced the Tigers’ QB into the worst performance by a Van Buren since the Panic of 1837. By the time LSU called a delayed timeout before a fourth-and-2 that would decide the game, Oklahoma coach Brent Venables looked as if he had just slipped a whoopee cushion onto LSU’s chair, his sly grin making it clear it was only a matter of time before the Tigers embarrassed themselves.
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LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners: Full Highlights
LSU Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners: Full Highlights
Oregon took a deep sigh of relief too after Dante Moore delivered a dart to Malik Benson for a 64-yard touchdown with 7:55 to play, securing a 26-14 win over Washington. The Ducks had controlled the game throughout, but a Denzel Boston touchdown had pulled Washington to within five and, suddenly, Oregon’s playoff spot didn’t feel quite so secure. In truth, this has been the story of Oregon’s season. Given the Ducks’ offensive weapons and relentless defense, this campaign has often felt just a touch too difficult, like trying to put plastic wrap on a casserole dish. But here they are, 11-1 and safely in the playoff, while Ohio State and Indiana head to the Big Ten title game. The Ducks are positioned like last year’s version of Ohio State — rested ahead of the playoff, its best football still ahead, biding its time, waiting to assert itself when the time is right, like a woman named Karen who’s displeased with her Panera order.
Perhaps no team felt more relief Saturday than Alabama. Logically, there was no reason to worry about this Auburn team, a program that had fired its head coach and frittered away every opportunity to win a big one. But this is the Iron Bowl: Strange things happen, and this contest had all the makings of another shocker.
The first half was a slog for Alabama’s offense, but its defense was virtually impenetrable, like a quarter-inch of snow on Interstate 20 through Talladega. After the break, however, the script flipped, and suddenly a 17-6 Crimson Tide lead disappeared, as Auburn’s Jeremiah Cobb rumbled into the end zone to tie the score at 20.
So, would Bama flop like the bangs that bear its name?
Alas, all the dark magic that resides within the storied history of this rivalry wasn’t enough to cover up what Auburn has been all season. A series of Tigers penalties kept an Alabama drive alive, and coach Kalen DeBoer opted to go for it on a fourth-and-2 from Auburn’s 6-yard line. Ty Simpson hit Isaiah Horton in the end zone for the score, assuring DeBoer would be allowed to return to Tuscaloosa without full-time security.
Auburn still had a shot to tie it, driving into Tide territory, but a Cam Coleman fumble effectively ended the comeback bid.
Ohio State, Oregon, Oklahoma and Alabama all now look like locks for the playoff. The same can’t be said for others.
Were Saturday’s results a relief for Vanderbilt, BYU and Miami? All three won, remaining alive for the playoff. But the lack of chaos around them only made the margin thinner. BYU controls its destiny, at least, getting a shot at the Big 12 title against Texas Tech. Vandy and Miami can do nothing more than wait and hope the committee reevaluates assumptions it has already clarified again and again.
For Miami, which utterly dismantled a ranked Pitt team 38-7, the wait is particularly galling. The Hurricanes are clearly the ACC’s best team but surely feel like a chance at a conference title — and the guaranteed playoff bid that comes with it — has been stolen from them like so many Lamborghinis in Carson Beck‘s driveway. Instead, 7-5 Duke will go to the league title game in Charlotte, North Carolina, to face Virginia, all because some convoluted tiebreaker scenarios are punishing Miami for losing a pair of games. Oh, and the ACC refs; they’re always helping out Coach K.
The last bits of stress before the College Football Playoff remain, but Saturday’s results offered a healthy dose of certainty, effectively stacking the deck and leaving Championship Week as a final chance to shuffle the cards.
No, the final chapter of the 2025 regular season didn’t upend the status quo. We end it all but assured of seeing Ohio State, Oregon, Oklahoma and Alabama in the playoff. But we learned something about each on Saturday in the way that they fought and survived and prevailed.
In January, there’s a good chance we’ll look back at what happened in Week 14 and see that the foundation for a national title was built among the chaos held at bay by teams that refused to loosen their grasp on a championship.
More:
Rivalry recaps | Trends
Under the radar | Heisman five
CFP takeaways
Rivalry recaps
Rivalry Week never disappoints, and the 2025 installment was another chance for hated rivals to add fuel to their longstanding hatred.
Lone Star Showdown
Texas‘ playoff hopes were on life support, but the Longhorns did what they had to do Friday to warrant continued consideration, knocking off previously undefeated Texas A&M 27-17.
Arch Manning recovered from a miserable first half to finish with 232 total yards and two touchdowns, including a 35-yard run that proved the dagger.
After the win, Texas rubbed a little salt in the wound, reminding Aggies coach Mike Elko of his statement that A&M was “the flagship program” in the state.
Texas just put an exclamation point on the win against Texas A&M with the ultimate fired shot!!! pic.twitter.com/iAzb9KaGpT
— Anwar Richardson (@AnwarRichardson) November 29, 2025
This, of course, forced A&M to retort with a brutal “I’m rubber, you’re glue” followed by Texas trumping the Aggies once again with a jumbled “alosersayswhat,” baffling Elko who was forced to ask for clarification, after which officials declared the battle over and Texas the victor.
A&M remains securely in the College Football Playoff field, but Texas’ case is one worth revisiting. Few contenders have a better track record against high-level competition, with the Longhorns now owning wins over A&M, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — all top-15 teams — plus a one-possession defeat on the road against No. 1 Ohio State. And, while the committee isn’t supposed to consider dreaminess, Manning did state the Horns’ case by pushing his bangs back from his forehead nonchalantly and batting his eyes, to which committee chair Hunter Yurachek responded by fainting onto a couch and declaring he had “a case of the vapors.”
Egg Bowl
Unlike Lane Kiffin’s job search, Ole Miss had no trouble putting Mississippi State to bed Friday, as Trinidad Chambliss threw for 359 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-19 win.
The final score was of little consequence. There were bigger questions to be answered: Who stole Chambliss’ jersey from the Ole Miss locker room before the game? Would Kiffin leave for another job? Would he be allowed to coach in the playoffs? Would Marty Smith’s perfectly manicured beard survive another day in Oxford?
All those questions were left to simmer throughout Saturday’s action, with answers likely sometime Sunday. Our preference remains that Kiffin announces his retirement then buys a house right next door to Nick Saban in a “Dennis the Menace” situation wherein Kiffin routinely sets Saban’s lawn on fire while trying to turn his skateboard into a rocket ship; but that’s admittedly a long shot.
Instead, we’ll likely spend the coming weeks debating the moral implications of taking another job while your team still has playoff aspirations. Oh, we’re talking about North Texas‘ Eric Morris, of course.
Sunshine Showdown
Six days after Florida State announced Mike Norvell would return for the 2026 season, Norvell offered a clear response: “Seriously? Can’t we ‘Old Yeller’ this situation? I’m dying here!”
DJ Lagway threw for three touchdowns, Florida ran for 272 yards, and the Gators torched Florida State 40-21.
The loss means FSU won’t play in a bowl game, which is probably for the best given that Norvell had already printed out most of the Amazon return labels for the bulk of his roster and arranged a UPS pickup on Monday.
For Florida, it was a small consolation after a lost season that ends with a 4-8 record, a 2-6 mark in SEC play and a large floral display that reads “Welcome Lane” that it now has no use for.
‘Clean Old-Fashioned Hate’
Georgia toppled Georgia Tech for the eighth straight time 16-9, matching the longest streak by either team in the rivalry’s history (previously set by Bobby Dodd’s Yellow Jackets teams from 1949 through 1956). It was hardly a stellar day for Gunner Stockton, who threw for just 70 yards — the lowest output for a Georgia offense since 2019 — but still finished the game leading both teams with 23 “we’ll get ’em next times,” six “bless his hearts” and four older people helped across the street. Stockton’s Heisman campaign likely took a hit, but he remains the favorite for this year’s top QB who knows a really good fishin’ hole, and his touchdown-to-“aw shucks” ratio remains elite.
Territorial Cup
Kenny Dillingham’s elaborate ploy to convince Jeff Sims that the past six years of his career never happened and were instead just a horrible dream came to a screeching halt Friday when Sims glimpsed a Waffle House en route to the game, igniting a vivid flashback to his time at Georgia Tech, and suddenly the reality all became clear like the final scene of “The Usual Suspects.” Sims proceeded to throw three interceptions as Arizona State fell to Arizona 23-7.
Palmetto Bowl
A year after LaNorris Sellers bulldozed the Clemson defense in an upset win in Death Valley, the Tigers got revenge, sacking the South Carolina QB five times, forcing two fumbles and picking off Sellers twice en route to a 28-14 win.
Love to see it 🐅
📺 SECN || @ricardojones05 pic.twitter.com/KfEdnUXarJ
— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) November 29, 2025
Clemson finished the regular season with four straight wins, allowing Dabo Swinney to celebrate afterward by gleefully tearing up a piece of paper labeled “Guys I guess I have to go get in the portal for 2026,” then opening an envelope labeled “Christopher Vizzina Heisman campaign materials.”
Commonwealth Cup
For just the second time in 21 years, Virginia upended rival Virginia Tech, securing the Cavaliers’ spot in the ACC championship game with a 27-7 victory.
J’Mari Taylor, once a walk-on at North Carolina Central, led the way with 80 yards on the ground, 34 receiving yards and both a touchdown run and a scoring pass in the win.
It’s a watershed moment for Virginia’s program. Just three months ago, a Virginia team capable of making the College Football Playoff after knocking off the Hokies in emphatic fashion would’ve seemed like a unicorn or a leprechaun or some other sort of mythical creature. Instead, the Cavaliers are playing their best football of the campaign behind a dominant defense and a ground game that has blossomed down the stretch.
Now all that’s left for the Hoos is to keep the ACC from massive embarrassment. It might be their greatest challenge of all.
Victory Bell
Jayden Maiava threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns, King Miller ran for 124 and a pair of scores, and USC mercifully ended UCLA‘s season with a 29-10 win Saturday.
USC has now won eight of the past 11 against UCLA, including three of four under Lincoln Riley. If UCLA can’t turn the tables in the rivalry after moving to SoFi Stadium, the Bruins have promised to keep moving home games farther and farther away until USC gets so sick of traffic on Interstate 405 that the Trojans just forfeit.
Nameless NC State–North Carolina rivalry game
The Wolfpack wasted no time dispatching Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels 42-19.
North Carolina ends Belichick’s first season at 4-8, including an 0-8 mark against teams that finished 5-7 or better.
Belichick was tight-lipped about the future after the game, suggesting he would begin evaluating the team’s progress this week, having not given it any thought at all prior. But he is definitely committed to UNC and not just coaching out of spite (as he mumbled about Robert Kraft being a real jerk).
Governor’s Cup
Despite playing with a roster made up almost entirely of guys Jeff Brohm found at the KFC drive-through, injury-ravaged Louisville demolished rival Kentucky 41-0 Saturday. Miller Moss threw for three touchdowns, Louisville ran for 258 yards, the Cards’ defense picked off Cutter Boley twice and sacked him six times, keeping the Wildcats from becoming bowl-eligible in the process. After it was over, a defiant Mark Stoops sat at his kitchen table, sipped a coffee amid a blazing inferno, and announced, “This is fine.”
Week 14 vibe shifts
The regular season has drawn to a close, and it has been a wild ride. Some stories were impossible to miss — Lane Kiffin’s job search, Penn State and Clemson falling from the top five, shirtless men everywhere — but others were so subtle we might not fully grasp their impact for years to come. We’ve tried to capture those smaller vibe shifts here.
Trending up: A Big 12 showdown
Texas Tech and BYU clinched their spots in the Big 12 title game, setting up a rematch of the Red Raiders’ emphatic win from Nov. 8.
Texas Tech finished the regular season with a dominant 48-0 victory over West Virginia, the Red Raiders’ 11th win of the season by at least 20 points. In the playoff era, only 2018 Alabama (12 such wins) and 2019 Ohio State had done that — though both fell to Clemson in the College Football Playoff and did not win a title.
BYU also locked up its spot with a 41-21 win over UCF, ensuring Scott Frost’s sixth straight losing season as a coach after the famed 13-0 season with the Knights in 2017. After the loss, Frost returned to his office, unlocked the bottom drawer of his desk, pulled out an envelope and read the note that helped explain his career’s shocking downward spiral: “Never hold a parade after I win a title. I have powerful friends. – Nick S.” that helped to explain his career’s downward spiral.
Should the Red Raiders win the Big 12, plans are to immediately melt down the championship trophy, sell the gold at a local pawn shop and add the funds to the school’s NIL collective.
Trending down: NCAA eligibility rules
It’s possible — likely even — that Saturday represented the last regular-season game of Diego Pavia‘s career. If so, he’s going out in style, accounting for 402 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 45-24 Vanderbilt win over Tennessee, the Commodores’ 10th win of the season.
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Diego Pavia hits the Heisman celly after Vanderbilt TD
Diego Pavia celebrates a rushing touchdown for Vanderbilt by doing the Heisman pose vs. Tennessee.
And sure, Pavia has been playing college football since the Carter administration, but that doesn’t change the fact that the sport is simply a lot more fun with him on the field. So, we beseech the NCAA to change its rules and allow him to keep playing for as long as he would like.
In a just world, we’ll all be settling in to our cryogenic pods to enjoy the 2056 Moon Bowl (which, despite its name, is actually played in Myrtle Beach) to see 73-year-old Pavia quarterback lead Akron past Space Force with 160 passing yards, 105 rushing yards and another 64 crypto-yards before retiring to the locker room, handing out hard candies to his teammates and regaling them with tales of embarrassing Hugh Freeze.
Trending up: Utah State‘s social cache
Utah State blew a 24-13 second-half lead and fell to Boise State 25-24 on Friday. It was a stroke of genius by head coach Bronco Mendenhall.
With the loss, Utah State falls to 6-6. Lose a bowl game and the Aggies will wrap up a season with a sterling 6-7 record, and as anyone under the age of 16 can tell you, there is no greater accomplishment in our current society than being 6-7. Even more impressive though is that this would make Utah State’s fifth 6-7 season of the playoff era, two more than any other team.
So, to recap, Utah State is the most 6-7 program in America and now awaits its invitation to the White House or the Nickelodeon Kids’ Choice Awards.
Trending up: Bird battle in Conference USA
Jacksonville State‘s Garrison Rippa booted a 28-yard field goal as time expired to lead the Gamecocks over Western Kentucky 27-24 and lock up a berth in the Conference USA championship game.
Jacksonville State will take on Kennesaw State, which upended Liberty 48-42 on Saturday, for a chance to hoist the Conference USA championship trophy, which, thanks to a nice infusion of cash from Missouri State and Delaware joining the league this year, is no longer just a Burger King crown that came with a value meal Rich Rodriguez ordered two years ago.
Trending down: Prime time in Boulder
Kansas State knocked off Colorado 24-14 on Saturday, ending the Buffaloes’ season with a 3-9 record.
Times are bleak in Boulder without Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders. Colorado could never figure out its offensive identity, cycling through QBs repeatedly, and ending the year with five straight losses.
A year ago, Deion Sanders had Colorado at the tip of the cultural zeitgeist, with social media abuzz, games drawing big ratings and A-list celebrities on the sideline each week. This year, the TikTok algorithm downgraded Buffs content beneath videos of cats wearing mittens, and the biggest celebrities to attend a game were the surviving members of “The Love Boat” cast and the kid in the “Charlie bit my finger” video from 2007.
Trending up: Extraction missions
One of the season’s most memorable highlights came during Louisville’s come-from-behind win against Pitt, when a Cardinals ball boy was tasked with retrieving a pick-six from Rasheem Biles, who was having none of it.
— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) September 27, 2025
Not to be outdone, a Texas A&M equipment manager tussled with an even more fearsome adversary on Friday as he attempted to retrieve a ball from Bevo.
Of course, none of that compared to the nearly impossible task faced by an Ole Miss staffer who was sent on a mission Friday to retrieve Lane Kiffin, who had boarded a Greyhound bus bound for Louisiana at halftime of the Egg Bowl.
Holding steady: James Madison playoff hopes
James Madison issued a statement to the playoff committee on Saturday by demolishing Coastal Carolina 59-10.
The Dukes, who remain unranked and behind at least Tulane in the race for the Group of 5 playoff berth, have played a relatively light schedule in a down Sun Belt Conference, but they’ve largely destroyed their opposition.
Yet while JMU was celebrating an easy win, its top competition — North Texas and Tulane — also won with ease.
The Mean Green demolished Temple 52-25, and Tulane shut out Charlotte 27-0.
A Tulane win in the American championship game would effectively lock up a playoff bid for the Green Wave. How the committee would view a comparison between North Texas and James Madison is tougher to figure, but a Mean Green win over Tulane would likely be a boost for UNT.
But thanks to SMU‘s loss to Cal, there is another option. The ACC title game will feature Virginia and Duke, a team with five losses, including two to teams outside the Power 4. Could that leave the door open for the Sun Belt’s champion to jump the ACC’s champion should the Blue Devils topple the Cavaliers?
Surely nothing that catastrophic could happen to the ACC, a league whose entire personality is basically that pharmaceutical commercial in which the lady holds up a cutout smiley face everywhere she goes so people won’t realize how miserable she is.
So, Duke or Dukes? Green Wave or Mean Green? The 11th and 12th playoff seeds might be the last truly interesting debate heading into Championship Week.
Trending down: Hope for Rutgers
Rutgers led Penn State 36-33 midway through the fourth quarter and appeared well on its way to bowl eligibility. But even in 2025, when Penn State misery would appear to be at its apex, it’s impossible to outdo Rutgers for sheer football ineptitude.
Driving deep into Penn State territory looking to go up two scores, Athan Kaliakmanis fumbled, and Penn State’s Amare Campbell recovered the ball and returned it 61 yards for a go-ahead touchdown.
Rutgers still had a chance, thanks largely to KJ Duff‘s miraculous one-handed grab on third-and-13, setting up another Scarlet Knights scoring chance.
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‘What a catch!’ KJ Duff with an unbelievable catch with one hand
Athan Kaliakmanis makes a 42-yard pass to KJ Duff who grabs it out of the air for a one-handed catch vs. Penn State.
Rutgers picked up 8 yards on first down but then went nowhere on three straight plays, turning the ball over on downs. Penn State ran out the clock on its ensuing drive, giving the Nittany Lions bowl eligibility and sending Rutgers home for another long offseason wearing track pants on a leather couch and rewatching the “Entourage” movie over and over.
Trending up: MAC parties
The hottest club in FBS is MACtion.
It has everything: Eddie George, feral raccoons, random Tuesday night shootouts and that thing where a giant bird does the Griddy with a bunch of sentient stuffed Christmas ornaments.
There’s something in the air 🕺🕺🕺 @MiamiRedHawks | @SickosCommittee | #MACtion pic.twitter.com/c5yEzDWsvi
— MACtion (@MACSports) November 29, 2025
Anyway, congratulations to Western Michigan for wrapping up the MAC regular-season title, which we assume comes with a gift card to Culver’s and a framed poster of Jordan Lynch arm wrestling a kangaroo.
Trending down: Memorable UMass seasons
The Minutemen wrapped up their first season in the MAC with a perfect record, a 12 in one column and a zero in the other. No, no, don’t ask follow-up questions. Just enjoy that information.
Actually, UMass was 0-12, with only two games decided by single digits after a 45-14 loss to Bowling Green in Week 14. As bad as UMass has been since moving to FBS, the first winless season for a program that has gone 1-11 five different times (plus an 0-4 COVID season) since moving to FBS in 2012. Still, it wasn’t the worst recent FBS season — Kent State was demonstrably worse last year — and it probably wasn’t even the worst UMass performance. UMass’s 2019 campaign in which it finished 1-11 but was outscored by an average of 33 points per game almost certainly was worse overall. So, congratulations to 2025 UMass. The Minutemen even lost the battle to be the worst UMass team.
Under-the-radar play of the week
South Dakota State dominated New Hampshire 41-3 in the opening round of the FCS playoff Saturday, a win highlighted by a 42-yard touchdown reception by Jack Smith, who then celebrated with his teammates in a snowbank that, we assume, is permanently installed inside the Jackrabbits’ stadium.
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Chase Mason throws 42-yard touchdown pass vs. New Hampshire
Chase Mason throws 42-yard touchdown pass vs. New Hampshire
The play marked the most notable snow celebration following a touchdown since Wisconsin’s Jim Leonhard enjoyed a big win at Camp Randall by adding an enchanted sweatshirt to a snowman, who then came to life and went on to a successful career coaching the Badgers, Arkansas and Illinois.
Under-the-radar game of the week
New Mexico‘s game against San Diego State on Friday had been a fun back-and-forth affair that, by the start of the fourth quarter, had devolved into an elaborate “Three Stooges” routine that lacked only someone dropping an anvil on Sean Lewis’ head.
The two teams combined for six fourth-quarter punts, SDSU took a sack with 17 seconds left to end regulation, then both turned the ball over in the first overtime. The Aztecs tossed a pick on their first play of overtime, with New Mexico only too happy to respond by fumbling away the ball three plays later.
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Keith’s one-handed catch-and-run TD wins it for Lobos in 2OT
Jack Layne finds Cade Keith for a 25-yard touchdown to win it for New Mexico in double overtime.
But New Mexico found a little magic in the second overtime period, with Jack Layne connecting with Cade Keith for a brilliant one-handed touchdown grab.
The win moves New Mexico to 9-3, the Lobos’ best season since 2016, and it sets up a four-way tie atop the Mountain West that will be settled Sunday via either a combination of computer metrics or a rap battle, depending on whether or not Dan Mullen gets his way.
Heisman five
Next week’s Big Ten championship game between Indiana and Ohio State might also be the deciding factor in who wins the Heisman Trophy. This stands in stark contrast to nearly every other Big Ten game this season in which the quarterback position remains a theoretical anomaly Wisconsin’s finest physicists still haven’t proven actually exists in the real world.
1. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin
If there was a knock on Sayin’s Heisman candidacy, it’s that it felt buoyed as much by the talent around him as anything he had done himself. That myth was dispelled Saturday as Sayin lit up the Michigan defense, rebounding from an early interception to look poised, dynamic and aggressive, throwing for 233 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-9 win. Sure, he looks as if a sorting hat assigned him to the least likable clique at his high school, but the important takeaway is he finally took down Ohio State’s Voldemort.
2. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza was just 8-of-15 passing for 117 yards in his final game of the regular season, but that was still enough to account for three touchdowns and a blowout win over Purdue to secure the Old Oaken Bucket. As opposed to last year’s riveting rivalry win at Cal when Mendoza famously went “98 yards with my boys,” this was a bit more like “117 passing yards with some guys I met nine months ago against a team that hasn’t won a Big Ten game in two years,” which doesn’t have quite the same ring to it but we assume is special to Mendoza anyway.
3. Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
Love carried 10 times for 59 yards and a touchdown before leaving Notre Dame’s game against Stanford with an apparent injury. Though he did reenter the game, we implore Notre Dame to keep Love covered in Bubble Wrap until we know whether the Fighting Irish are in the playoff or not.
4. Nebraska RB Emmett Johnson
Remember a month ago when everyone was so certain Penn State would hire Matt Rhule that Nebraska went out and locked him up through the 2032 season? Those were simpler times. Since then, the Huskers have lost three of four games and will finish with five or more losses for the eighth year in a row, the third-longest streak among Power 4 programs (trailing Boston College and Rutgers). Anyway, none of that should overshadow the fact that Johnson was one of the most prolific players in the country this year, including 217 yards rushing in a 40-16 loss to Iowa. How does a player rush for 217 yards and his team manage just 16 points? How does anyone give up 40 to Iowa? These are questions best posed to “Tungsten Arm” O’Doyle.
5. North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker
The Mean Green are 11-1 and headed to the American Conference championship game with a real shot at a playoff berth, and they’ve done it all with a QB who didn’t even start for his high school team. Mestemaker was a walk-on who got a chance in last year’s bowl game and won the job this year. He finished the regular season with another 366 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-25 win over Temple. For the year, Mestemaker has thrown for 29 touchdowns. In comparison, the entire Iowa team has 29 passing touchdowns over the past three years combined. So, we restate our longstanding theory that Iowa could’ve just found a guy who was the backup on his high school team and is now working the overnight shift at Walmart and gotten more production in the passing game than it currently has.
Alabama’s black (hoodie) magic continued.
What else can explain the Tide’s wild, playoff-saving, SEC title game-clinching, penalty-laden win against rival Auburn on Saturday night?
While bubble teams such as Miami and Texas were hoping for chaos, 11 of the committee’s top-12 teams won during Rivalry Week, leaving Texas A&M the lone team to drop in this week’s projection.
And that’s it.
With the exception of teams that will play for their respective conference championship games, the résumés are complete. Though there likely will be some shuffling after the conference championship games, the fifth and penultimate ranking Tuesday night will be the best indicator all season of which teams should feel comfortable heading into Selection Day — and which might need some help.
Here’s a prediction of what the committee might do in its fifth ranking Tuesday night.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: This is where the selection committee has had the Buckeyes in each of its first four rankings, and beating No. 15 Michigan will further cement their place at the top. It was only Ohio State’s second win against a CFP top-25 opponent, along with the season-opening win against Texas, but the committee has been wowed by Ohio State’s talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: It wouldn’t make sense for the committee to drop the Buckeyes after beating a ranked rival on the road when Indiana defeated a 2-10 Purdue team 56-3. After Texas A&M’s loss to Texas on Friday night, though, Indiana entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, but Ohio State was No. 1 in game control. The Buckeyes have the lowest schedule strength (No. 54) of the top contenders, except Texas Tech (No. 57).
Need to know: Given that Ohio State is entering the Big Ten title game undefeated, it still has a strong chance of finishing in the top four with a first-round bye, even if it loses to Indiana. The top four seeds are no longer reserved for conference champions.
Up next: Ohio State will face Indiana in the Big Ten championship game Dec. 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Why they could be here: This is where the committee has had the Hoosiers for four straight weeks — looking up at No. 1 Ohio State — and a lopsided win against Purdue is unlikely to change that. The Hoosiers’ best win was Oct. 11 at Oregon, and it remains their lone victory against a CFP top-25 opponent.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising if the committee flipped Ohio State and Indiana at this point — not to mention difficult to justify — but if the Hoosiers win the Big Ten championship game, it’s an easy move. Indiana entered Saturday leading the nation in total efficiency — just a percentage point ahead of Ohio State — and is No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Need to know: No two teams in the country have better chances of earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye, according to ESPN Analytics. Indiana leads the country with a 99.7% chance to earn a bye, followed by the Buckeyes at 96.8%. Because the Hoosiers will enter the conference title game undefeated, they still have a strong chance of finishing in the top four, even with a loss.
Up next: Indiana will face Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game Dec. 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Why they could be here: The committee will likely bump the Bulldogs up a spot after their win against rival Georgia Tech, and Texas A&M’s loss to Texas. Georgia also played Texas, and the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns soundly 35-10. The committee would consider that common opponent along with Georgia’s wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech, though the Jackets could fall out of the CFP top 25 this week.
Why they could be lower: Georgia entered Saturday ranked outside the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and has trailed in several games this season. Against Georgia Tech, quarterback Gunner Stockton completed 11 of 21 passes for only 70 yards and an interception.
Need to know: Georgia’s win against Georgia Tech was critical because it gives the Bulldogs some margin for error in the SEC championship game if the Bulldogs finish as a two-loss runner-up. Georgia’s only regular-season loss was by three points to Alabama on Sept. 27. If the Bulldogs lose a close game to the Tide again, the committee would have a hard time ignoring the head-to-head results, which means Georgia would lose its first-round bye, but not its place in the playoff.
Up next: Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC championship game Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders brought the sledgehammer down on West Virginia — in the first half — and could get a bump into the top four after Texas A&M lost to Texas. The committee has been impressed this season with the Red Raiders’ consistent dominance, ranking No. 2 in the country with an average points margin of 30.4 points per game. Texas Tech is No. 3 in the country with an average of 42 points per game while holding its opponents to 12.27 points per game, No. 3 in the country.
Why they could be lower: The Aggies have entered the one-loss debate, and how far they fall will be one of the biggest questions for the committee this week. Texas Tech has the worst loss (to Arizona State) of any of the one-loss contenders. The Red Raiders also trail the Aggies, Oregon and Ole Miss in strength of record and strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics.
Need to know: Texas Tech’s chance at a first-round bye depends on whether it wins the Big 12 title. The Red Raiders will face BYU in the Big 12 championship game and should feel secure in their playoff place, whether they win or lose. The victory over WVU gives them a cushion to earn a CFP spot even as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. Nobody else in the country could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
Up next: Texas Tech will face BYU in the Big 12 title game Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Why they could be here: The Ducks could get a small promotion this week if the committee drops the Aggies after their loss to Texas on Friday night. Oregon earned a respectable win at Washington, and has impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. Even if the committee keeps the Aggies above Oregon, the Ducks should be in a position to host a first-round home game as one of the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss teams on Selection Day.
Why they could be lower: With Texas A&M joining the pack of one-loss teams, it’s possible the committee still believes the Aggies are better than Oregon, an opinion it has indicated for the past four weeks. How much does a loss to Texas change that perception? The Aggies’ road win against Notre Dame is better than Oregon’s best victory, which was at home against USC.
Need to know: It’s possible that by Selection Day, Oregon’s only loss is to the Big Ten champs. It’s one small factor that could help the committee distinguish the one-loss teams. Oregon’s loss to Indiana would likely be viewed as better than Texas Tech’s defeat (Arizona State) and Texas A&M’s (Texas), but both were on the road, while the Ducks lost to IU at home.
Up next: Oregon will await the Selection Day results.
Why they could be here: The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. It was carrying them before, and it might not be enough now to keep a first-round bye as one of the top-four teams. The Aggies will likely drop to the four to six range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins, including a 35-10 drubbing of Texas, a common opponent. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama), and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. There would be a strong debate, though, about whether the Aggies should fall below Texas Tech and/or Oregon. The Ducks have impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Why they could be higher: The committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins. The Aggies entered the weekend with a noticeable edge over Texas Tech in strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee drops the Aggies only one spot, flipping them with Georgia, which means they’d still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed.
Need to know: The top-four seeds and first-round byes are no longer reserved for conference champions, so it’s still possible for Texas A&M — or another at-large team — to earn a first-round bye without winning its league.
Up next: The Aggies have been knocked out of the SEC championship game, and will wait for Selection Day.
Why they could be here: With the win against rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, the Rebels should be a lock for the CFP and are still in position to host a first-round game. Their Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives the Rebels an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ Sept. 20 victory against Tulane is one of their best wins, as the Green Wave is still leading the Group of 5’s playoff contenders after they clinched a spot in the American championship game.
Why they could be higher: It would be a bit surprising to see the Aggies fall as far as No. 7, but some committee members could reward the Rebels for their win against No. 8 Oklahoma more than the Aggies’ victory against No. 9 Notre Dame. Some could also argue that the Aggies’ loss to Texas is worse than the Rebels’ defeat to Georgia. The Bulldogs hosted both schools, but beat the Rebels 45-35 and the Longhorns 35-10.
Need to know: If Ole Miss turns to an interim coach for the playoff, the selection committee could consider that. CFP protocol states the group will consider “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee surmises the team won’t be the same without him.
Up next: Ole Miss will await Selection Day results.
Why they could be here: The Sooners’ defense continues to play at an elite level, helping compensate for what OU has been lacking on offense. Oklahoma has found ways to win all month, including back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the setback against Texas is still likely to be overcome because the Longhorns have a third loss.
Why they could be lower: Oklahoma ranked No. 48 in offensive efficiency heading into Saturday — a glaring discrepancy from the other CFP contenders. The Sooners are No. 101 in the country with 128.2 rushing yards per game, and the selection committee has noted flaws like that. The members have done it with Alabama this year, pointing out the Tide’s inability to run the ball since their season-opening loss to FSU.
Need to know: Oklahoma likely locked up a playoff spot with its win against LSU, but hosting a first-round game is still fluid. The order can still change on Selection Day with conference championship game results. If Alabama and BYU win their respective conferences, they could make significant jumps, and OU would lose its first-round home game if it got bumped out of the top eight. The committee would also consider, though, that Oklahoma won at Alabama on Nov. 15, and that could be a road victory against the eventual SEC champs.
Up next: The Sooners will await Selection Day results.
Why they could be here: The Irish earned a decisive win at Stanford, leaving no doubt that they’re the better team against unranked competition — something other contenders struggled with during Rivalry Week. Though the committee compares common opponents — Notre Dame and Miami beat Pitt — the results were similar enough that it wouldn’t sway the committee enough to make a change. Notre Dame beat Pitt 37-15 while Miami topped Pitt 38-7. The committee has used losses to help separate Notre Dame and Miami, as the Irish lost to the Canes and Aggies by a combined four points. Miami’s loss to SMU looks worse after the Mustangs collapsed against Cal and were knocked out of the ACC championship game picture.
Why they could be lower: If the committee didn’t reward Alabama for its schedule strength yet, it’s unlikely to change after the Tide beat Auburn. Though there has been much public debate about Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, the bigger conversation in the room has focused on Notre Dame and Alabama.
Need to know: Notre Dame isn’t a lock for the CFP, though it would be difficult to imagine the Irish being excluded. If Alabama wins the SEC, though, and jumps Notre Dame, the Irish could be in danger of being excluded if two Big 12 teams are in. That could happen if BYU beats Texas Tech, and both teams finish in the top 10. That would mean a team currently ranked in the top 10 would have to be excluded to make room for BYU.
Up next: The Irish will await the Selection Day results.
Why they could be here: Alabama will play Georgia in the SEC championship game after punctuating its résumé with a road win against rival Auburn. Alabama continues to have one of the best résumés in the country, including what could be a top-three win at Georgia on Sept. 27. The Tide’s Oct. 4 victory at Vandy continues to boost their résumé, but Alabama will stay behind Oklahoma for now because of the Nov. 15 home loss to the Sooners. The committee has kept Alabama behind Notre Dame in part because of the Tide’s defeat to Florida State, and that took yet another hit Saturday after the 5-7 Noles lost to 4-8 rival Florida.
Why they could be higher: The committee has already had an in-depth conversation about Notre Dame and Alabama, and made its decision — and a win against 5-7 Auburn is unlikely to change the votes now. Alabama can leapfrog Notre Dame with an SEC title, though, as it would be one more win against a ranked opponent the independent Irish won’t have. The committee would have a difficult decision about how high to rank Alabama if it wins the SEC, though, because of its loss to Oklahoma. Would the head-to-head result keep the Tide behind the Sooners, even with an SEC title?
Need to know: The potential for chaos isn’t over. One of the selection committee’s biggest decisions could be what to do with Alabama if the Tide finish as a three-loss SEC runner-up. Alabama would have lost to Georgia — a team it beat on the road during the regular season. At No. 10, Alabama is already in a dangerous position if the Big 12 has two teams in the field. Three-loss Alabama could potentially wind up with the same fate as last year — ranked in the top 12 on Selection Day but excluded during the seeding process to make room for conference champions that are guaranteed spots.
Up next: Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game Dec. 6 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Why they could be here: The Cougars’ lone loss was at Texas Tech, which could be a top-four team Tuesday. The double-overtime road win at Arizona looks a little better with the Wildcats’ victory against rival Arizona State this week, and the committee will continue to value the 24-21 win against Utah. BYU entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and No. 6 in total efficiency.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward Miami for its convincing 38-7 win against No. 22 Pitt, and the Canes’ victory against No. 9 Notre Dame trumps anything on BYU’s résumé. BYU also hasn’t been as consistently dominant as Miami, ranking 14th in game control compared with Miami at No. 6 entering Week 14.
Need to know: If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the league runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. It could be as simple as No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 BYU flipping positions on Selection Day. The difference would be that BYU lost to Texas Tech twice, while Alabama would have defeated the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road.
Up next: BYU will face Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game Dec. 6 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Why they could be here: The Canes did what they needed to: earned a convincing road win against a ranked Pitt team. They’ve also shown the committee the consistency it is seeking. Miami has earned four straight wins by outscoring its opponents 151-41 and still has one of the best wins in the country, against Notre Dame. “I don’t think Miami has ever had a problem passing the eye test,” committee chair Hunter Yurachek said last week. “When we watch the games and we watch them on film, Miami is a really good team. What we have talked about as a committee in the middle of the season, Miami lacks some consistency, especially on the offensive side of the ball. It appears in the last three weeks, they have fixed that …” Now, they have to see if it was enough to unseat BYU and Alabama. The committee will also compare the Canes with Texas, and Miami’s win against Florida can help separate them from the Longhorns.
Why they could be higher: Miami has scored at least 34 points in each of its past four games, but No. 12 is probably the Canes’ ceiling, given there weren’t upsets immediately above them. Entering Saturday, Miami was also a notch below Notre Dame in ESPN’s strength of record, game control and strength of schedule metrics. The Canes (No. 47) are also significantly behind Alabama (No. 10) in strength of schedule.
Need to know: Virginia and Duke will play for the ACC title, so Miami’s only path to the playoff is through an at-large bid. The committee isn’t ignoring the Canes’ head-to-head victory against Notre Dame, but the members also are not only comparing Miami with the Irish. The Canes also need to earn an edge against Alabama and BYU — two teams the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point.
Up next: Miami will await Selection Day results.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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