Hedge fund titan Bill Ackman predicted the Federal Reserve will begin slashing interest rates as early as the first quarter to avert “a real risk of a hard landing” for the US economy.
Fed officials have unanimously decided to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at its current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, for the past two policy meetings with little indication that they’ll slash interest rates following the next two-day meeting on Dec. 12 and Dec. 13.
Ackman told Bloomberg that if the Fed keeps rates around the 5.5% range while inflation trends below 3%, thats a very high real rate of interest.
Inflation, meanwhile, has been decelerating. October’s Consumer Price Index which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services — rose 3.2%, a slowdown from September’s 3.7% advance, but a figure Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly reiterated is still above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Whats happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines, Ackman told Bloomberg.
I think theres a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesnt start cutting rates pretty soon, Ackman added, noting that hes seen evidence of a weakening economy.
Traders however, aren’t fully pricing in a rate cut until the end of 2024’s second quarter, in June, Bloomberg reported, citing swaps market data.
The chance of a cut happening in May is some 80%, the data showed.
Though Ackman didn’t elaborate on the “evidence” he sees that the US economy could be headed towards its first recession since 2007, last month’s surge in long-term Treasury yields stoked fears of a hard landing.
At the time, bond yields briefly surpassed 5%, making it more expensive for consumers and companies to borrow money, thereby undercutting the economy and increasing the risk of a recession.
Ackman, whose made his name building up Pershing Square Capital Management’s $17 billion portfolio, insisted to Bloomberg that he’s not convinced the US economy is headed for a “soft landing,” in which the Fed would be able to continue its tightening regime while staving off a recession.
He acted on this belief back in August, when he shorted 30-year Treasury bonds — a move that netted Ackman’s fund a profit of about $200 million.
Representatives for Ackman at Pershing Square did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for comment.
Economists have also largely predicted that an interest rate cut is forthcoming, especially given a weaker-than-expected jobs report in October, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 150,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate is now 3.9%, the agency said, above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast.
Inflation has also trended weaker than central bankers’ estimates as Americans see some reprieve from the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle, which began in March 2022.
Rates have since increased at a pace not seen in 40 years, and the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates in over a year despite falling inflation.
A former soldier has been found guilty of raping his ex-girlfriend during a four-hour attack in which he killed her, her mother and her sister.
Warning: This article contains distressing details.
Kyle Clifford, 26, previously admitted murdering BBC racing commentator John Hunt’s wife Carol Hunt, 61, and their daughters Louise, 25, and Hannah, 28.
He also pleaded guilty to false imprisonment of Louise, who was tied and gagged with duct tape, and possession of the crossbow used to kill her and her sister, and the 10-inch butcher’s knife he stabbed their mother to death with.
Image: Kyle Clifford. Pic: Hertfordshire Police
Prosecutors said he raped Louise in an “act of spite” during the attack in the Hunt family home in Bushey, Hertfordshire, on 9 July last year after she broke up with him 13 days earlier.
Clifford, who refused to attend the four-day trial at Cambridge Crown Court, claimed DNA evidence found on her body was from a consensual sexual encounter 16 days before the attack.
But he was found guilty by a jury after the court heard his explanation was “completely untenable”.
Image: Louise Hunt
Pic: Facebook
There was applause from the public gallery and cries of “yes!”, with one woman pumping her fists and another woman crying as the guilty verdict was heard.
The court was told Clifford began planning the murders after Louise, who told a friend he had a “nasty temper”, ended their 18-month relationship in a message on 26 June.
Judge pays tribute to family of the victims
Mr Justice Joel Bennathan said he will sentence Clifford on Tuesday for his “dreadful” and “almost unspeakable” crimes.
The judge paid tribute to the family of the deceased, adding: “They conducted themselves with huge dignity and restraint and I pay tribute to them.”
Detective Chief Inspector Nick Gardner said Clifford’s failure to attend his trial was an “absolute act of cowardice”.
He pointed out that the trial had been held in Cambridge to meet Clifford’s accessibility needs – he required a wheelchair after he shot himself with the crossbow.
“He has put the family through the ordeal of the trial, he has created everything that’s happened over this past week and failing to show his face is completely cowardly,” he added.
Image: Carol Hunt pictured with her husband John Hunt.
Pic: Facebook
Image: Hannah Hunt. Pic: Facebook
Clifford ‘planned a terrible attack’
Louise’s friends and family, who had described Clifford as “odd”, and “disrespectful, rude and arrogant”, backed her decision to end the relationship, sparked by his behaviour at a friend’s wedding.
Prosecutor Alison Morgan KC said Clifford, who had hidden relationships with two other women from Louise, was “angered” that she rebuffed his attempts to get back together.
“The defendant planned a terrible attack on Louise Hunt and her family, enraged by her rejection of him,” she told jurors during the trial.
“That attack included an act of sexual violence, committed out of spite, when she was restrained and unable to escape him.”
Image: The recovered crossbow.
Pic: Hertfordshire Police
She said the murders were “carefully planned and executed”, with Clifford tricking his way inside the family home on the pretext of returning Louise’s belongings and delivering a “thank you” card to her parents after checking Mr Hunt was not home.
He carried out “a brutal knife attack” on Carol, then waited for his ex-girlfriend to return home from working at her dog grooming business in a pod in the garden, the court heard.
It was added that customers of Louise’s business were using the gate at the side of the house, “not realising what was happening” when Carol was attacked and killed.
Louise was held for hours before Clifford shot her with the crossbow moments before her sister Hannah, a beautician, came home from work.
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Footage shows Clifford fleeing the Hunt family home
Hannah is heard on audio at the Hunt family home saying: “Kyle, I swear to God,” after finding him inside the house, the court heard.
The prosecution said Hannah messaged her partner, Alex Klein, telling him to “call police… immediately. To mine. Now. Kyle here. Police now. He’s tying us up”.
Clifford’s own sister messaged him on the day of the attacks when she realised he had taken the crossbow, asking: “What are you playing at?”
A loud whooshing sound was caught on a doorbell camera as the weapon was fired, while Hannah could be heard to shout, “Oh my god”, as she found her mother and sister.
Image: The 10-inch butcher’s knife Clifford used was never found but police released an image of the packaging.
Pic: PA
She was also shot but managed to call police, and emergency services found her collapsed in the doorway, but she died soon after.
Clifford, who served in the army from 2019 to 2022, shot himself in the chest with a crossbow as armed police found him in a cemetery the next day after a manhunt and is now paralysed from the chest downwards.
Violent misogyny promoted by the likes of Andrew Tate fuelled Clifford’s attack, prosecutors argued in court.
He also had been searching YouTube for the controversial influencer’s podcast the day before he carried out the four-hour attack, it was said in legal argument ahead of his trial.
It can only now be reported because the judge excluded the evidence from the trial, saying that it was of “limited relevance” and too prejudicial.