OPEC+ oil producers head into meeting with quota unease and geopolitical risks casting a shadow
Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman on Oct. 5, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The influential Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, convene to decide next production policy steps on Thursday, in a postponed virtual meeting overshadowed by conflict in the Middle East, internal disgruntlement and the imminent expiry of a key Saudi supply cut.
All eyes have turned on whether the OPEC subset of the group — steered by heavyweight Saudi Arabia — will have mended its differences, after sources told CNBC that Angola and Nigeria objected to lower baselines for next year. Baselines, levels off which cuts and quotas are decided, have been a bone of contention within OPEC+, stalling talks amid UAE pushback in the summer of 2021.
Angola and Nigeria have struggled with declining output amid underfunding, spare capacity depletion and infrastructural sabotage. But accepting lower baselines would pose risks in the event of future output recoveries. The two countries’ baselines for 2024 — and implicitly their production quotas — were due to be studied following assessment from three independent data providers.
Two OPEC+ delegates, who could only speak anonymously because of the sensitivity of discussions, told CNBC Tuesday that a compromise had yet to be reached, as the clock ticks toward key meetings between OPEC, OPEC+ and their technical committee.
The gatherings were initially scheduled as in-person meetings last weekend in Vienna, before a last-minute downgrade to virtual conferences. Their new date overlaps with the first day of the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) hosted by key OPEC member the UAE, which is trying to raise its profile as a champion of the green transition.
Beyond internal strife, OPEC+ has been contending with a perceived disconnect between prices and supply-demand fundamentals, which has frustrated the group — including Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who warned market speculators they should “watch out” in May.
Last week, three OPEC+ delegates stressed recent oil prices were pressured by liquidations in a tight future markets, while a fourth delegate said that prices are now shaped by global politics, including developments in Gaza.
OPEC+ members already have a 2 million barrels-per-day production cut in place, compounded by 1.66 million-barrels-per-day voluntary declines from some members. Both were agreed until the end of 2024.
Topping this, Saudi Arabia and Russia instituted respective supply drops of 1 million barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day until the end of this year. These drops fleetingly boosted prices that languished amid high interest rates and banking turmoil in the first half of the year, but gains have since retreated, given a fragile recovery in China and political uncertainty in the Middle East.
One of the aforementioned delegates said that OPEC+ would have to make a policy announcement to “support the market,” while another delegate suggested cuts could be discussed. But a different delegate assessed it is unlikely that the coalition will change course, acknowledging uncertainty over Iran and Venezuela, where the U.S. signaled tightening and easing its oil sanctions, respectively.
Further cuts could stir dormant tensions with the White House, which prefers prices low at the pump but has stayed silent since a war of words with Riyadh last year. U.S. calls for additional production could conflict with Washington-endorsed efforts for global solidarity around decarbonization at COP28.
Oil spill
OPEC+ and broader markets face uncertainty whether the conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas would spread into the Middle East, echoing the crisis of 50 years prior that resulted in several Arab countries restricting oil exports to the U.S.
Two OPEC+ delegates said the coalition would not politicize production, with one of the sources noting that the embargo of 1973 was decided by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Riyadh’s tone against Israel, reined back by U.S. efforts to normalize relations between its two allies, has slowly sharpened, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman now urging countries not to provide Israel with weapons. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s calls for an Islamic oil embargo against Israel have so far gone unheeded — and Iran’s sanctioned status has heavily reduced its influence in OPEC+ diplomacy.
Tehran’s own crude flows are themselves under long-term question. Amos Hochstein, White House energy security advisor, told Bloomberg TV that the U.S. will now enforce oil sanctions against Iran amid the resurgent Middle East war, noting of Iran’s oil exports, “Those numbers will come down.”
Separately, Libya voted to strengthen a law criminalizing relations with Israel, turning away a vessel from loading crude locally because of a previous voyage to Israel, a Libyan shipper told CNBC. A separate decision by Yemen’s Houthi to hijack a cargo ship on suspicion of Israeli connections and label all tankers owned by or dealing with Israel as a “legitimate target” dampens the security of popular oil routes in the Red Sea.
Tesla has started to offer discounted financing on Cybertruck as the electric pickup truck undoubtedly turns out to be a flop.
Tesla claimed over 1 million reservations for the Cybertruck, and CEO Elon Musk said he could see Tesla producing 500,000 units per year.
However, that was before Tesla announced that the production version would be much more expensive and have a shorter range than what was initially announced.
The Cybertruck has now been in production for a year and a half, and it looks like Tesla would be lucky to sell about 10% of Musk’s goal of 500,000 units.
The automaker doesn’t report Cybertruck sales, but it is estimated that Tesla delivered roughly 40,000 Cybertrucks in 2024, and it is expected to have even more issues selling the truck this year.
Tesla has taken several steps to help sales.
We reported that Tesla launched Cybertruck leases to help move vehicles. The company is even still tucked with “Foundations Series” Cybertrucks, and we found out that Tesla buffed “Foundations Series” badges out of some trucks to sell them as cheaper regular Cybertrucks.
For the remaining “Foundations Series,” which there still are despite Tesla switching to regular Cybertruck production in October, Tesla has even offered free Supercharging for life.
Now, Tesla is stepping up its game, and it is offering discounted financing on new Cybertruck orders:
Tesla announced 1.99% APR for a limited time:
1.99% APR available for a limited time for well-qualified buyers
WIthout the “promotion”, the rate for excellent credit is 5.84%.
While Tesla is discounting the rates, it is not discounting them as much as for new Model 3 orders.
We reported earlier this week that Tesla offers 0% and 0.99% with $0 down on new Model 3 orders in the US until the end of the quarter.
Electrek’s Take
It is very possible that Tesla can’t sell more than 10,000 Cybertrucks this quarter, which would extrapolate to 40,000 units per year or less than 10% of what Elon said he would see Tesla delivering.
Now, the cheaper single motor Cybertruck should help, but by how much? It could bring Tesla to 20-30% of the volume Elon saw possible?
I think it’s fairly clear that the Cybertruck is a flop.
Tesla launched a single new vehicle in the last 5 years and it is a flop.
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Environment
Toyota launched its cheapest EV in China and it crashed the server starting at just $15,000
Toyota looks to grab a bigger share of the world’s largest EV market as it takes aim at BYD and other low-cost leaders. On Thursday, Toyota launched its cheapest EV in China, the bZ3X, starting at roughly $15,000. The new electric SUV crashed the server with over 10,000 orders in an hour.
Meet Toyota’s cheapest EV in China, the bZ3X
The bz3X is Toyota’s “first 100,000 yuan-level pure electric SUV” in China and its cheapest EV to hit the market so far.
Toyota’s Chinese joint venture, GAC-Toyota officially launched the “Bozhi 3X,” or bZ3X for short, in China on March 6. Shortly after, the company said orders for its new electric SUV were “so popular that the server crashed” after revealing prices start at just over $15,000 (109,800 yuan).
After securing over 10,000 orders in just one hour, Toyota boasted again that “the server is overwhelmed.” The launch comes after blind pre-orders opened in December, starting at just under $14,000 (100,000 yuan).
The bZ3X is available in two versions, with or without its full-scenario smart driving tech. The non-smart tech model starts at 109,800 yuan ($15,000) with five trim options while the smart driving model starts at 149,800 yuan ($20,500).
For 159,800 yuan ($22,000), the range-topping “610 Max” trim provides up to 610 km (379 miles) CLTC range from a 67.92 kWh LFP battery. The base “430 Air” gets up to 430 km (267 miles) from a 50.03 kWh LFP battery pack.
Toyota said the interior provides “a mobile space that is comfortable as home,” with front and rear seats that can fold down to provide nearly 10 feet (3 meters) of space.
Inside, the electric SUV has a 14.6″ infotainment screen with voice recognition and an 8.8″ driver display. It also includes a two-spoke multi-function steering wheel.
Toyota’s new bZ3X is its first vehicle with the Momenta 5.0 Intelligent Driving System. Powered by NVIDIA Drive AGX Orin X, it comes with 25 ADAS features, such as parallel parking, remote control parking, high-speed pilot, light traffic assist, and blind spot monitoring.
GAC-Toyota claimed it will be “one of the first automakers in the world to realize a one-stage end-to-end intelligent driving model.” With human-like intelligence, the vehicle “gets smarter and better with use.”
At 4,600 mm long, 1,875 mm wide, and 1,645 mm tall, Toyota’s cheapest EV in China is about the size of BYD’s Yuan Plus (Atto 3) at 4,455 mm long, 1,875 mm wide, and 1,615 mm tall. Starting at 115,800 yuan ($16,000), Toyota’s new bZ3X slightly undercuts BYD’s electric SUV.
What do you think of Toyota’s new electric SUV? Would you buy one for around $15,000? We’ll keep dreaming.
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