Financial crash could have been far worse for UK were it not for Alistair Darling
Even before Northern Rock collapsed and the financial crisis exploded, Alistair Darling was already wrangling with an unenviable inheritance as chancellor of the exchequer.
Not only was he having to follow in the footsteps of the longest-serving chancellor of modern times – a man who presided over an almost unprecedentedly long period of stability and growing prosperity – he was doing so under the shadow of that same man.
After years of waiting, in June 2007 Gordon Brown had finally taken over as prime minister, and he had little intention of allowing anyone else to meddle with the economic plans he had laid out in his time at the Treasury.
Most officials would have crumpled in the face of this task, but Darling was a consummate politician – a smooth, unshowy operator who rarely ruffled feathers, despite having led some of the most challenging departments in Whitehall.
He had been work and pensions secretary, transport secretary and trade secretary too.
Competent and capable, he was also, crucially, less cursed with ego than most of his counterparts.
And when he got the job it seemed quite likely that he would spend most of his time being overshadowed by the prime minister, but then, a couple of months in, Britain’s mortgage securitisation market froze.
Within a few weeks, Northern Rock was in big trouble.
By September, the high street lender was effectively finished, seeking emergency support from the Bank of England and triggering the first bank run since Victorian times.
Darling’s time in office would be defined by the financial crisis, by the collapse not just of Northern Rock but of other British banking icons, by the nationalisation of RBS and, more importantly still, the deep recession that followed.
This was a global financial crisis, but Britain, with its global banking system and strong dependence on the sector, was worse hit than most countries.
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Former chancellor Alistair Darling dies
The slump was deep and so too was the impact on Britain’s public finances.
Moreover, having managed and steered this system for more than a decade up until recently, there was no mistaking which politician was most responsible for Britain’s part in the malaise: the new PM.
Yet for most of his time in office Darling maintained his composure and attempted to clean up the mess without briefing about his predecessor’s part in it.
A scarred relationship with Gordon Brown
Tellingly, the moment that most scarred his relationship with Gordon Brown came when Darling warned that Britain was facing “the worst downturn in 60 years”.
While Darling suggested that crisis would be “more profound and long-lasting than people thought”, Brown believed (or wanted to believe) that it would all be over in six months.
There were furious briefings from “Gordon’s attack dogs”, as Darling later put it, suggesting that the chancellor had lost the plot. It was, Darling said, like the “forces of hell” had been deployed against him.
“I won’t deny,” he wrote in his memoirs some years later, “that this episode was deeply hurtful and that it shaped a difficult relationship for the rest of our term in office”.
The gentlemanly path
It was a telling moment in other respects. For it underlined what mattered most to Darling.
While Brown was desperate to avoid having to internalise or publicise the bad news facing the country, Darling was compelled to be honest.
While Brown would routinely use his press officials to brief against his opponents, Darling preferred to take the gentlemanly path.
But the rift that grew between No 10 and No 11 would in other respects prove a blessing to Alistair Darling. In the following years he grew in stature and independence.
No-one suggested in the months that ensued, as he implemented the tax cuts and then rises in the face of recession, that he wasn’t his own man.
And while it is hard to take much that is positive from this period in British history, it would arguably have been very different (and potentially far worse) had it not been for Alistair Darling.
Perhaps the most significant moment came when he resisted the pressure (including aggressive phone calls from the US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson) for Barclays to take over Lehman Brothers as the American investment bank careered towards collapse.
How different Britain’s fate would have been had it absorbed Lehman’s toxic waste and instruments onto its balance sheet.
An elder statesman
After leaving office, Darling did much as he had while in office.
He tried to be the statesman. He led the Better Together campaign during the Scottish independence referendum.
He sat in the House of Lords until 2020. He did not shout from the side lines but very quickly became an elder statesman, respected and admired across political divides.
Perhaps his greatest legacy is something else, something quite intangible.
It is hard to think of many politicians who will be remembered with such affection – as a good man, a kind man.
His loss, so much earlier than expected, leaves British politics a sadder, somewhat less dignified place.
The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.
A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.
It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.
A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.
This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.
Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.
Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.
A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture
It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.
“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.
But the picture was not all bad.
Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.
It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.
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The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.
While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.
Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.
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Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.
“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.
Why did the economy shrink?
The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.
The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.
It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.
Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.
However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.
This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.
Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.
Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.
Hangover from artificial growth
However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.
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In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.
Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.
Signs of recovery
Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.
“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.
A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.
Struggles ahead
It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.
The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.
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Is Britain going bankrupt?
Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.
Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.
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