“Introduce a little anarchy, upset the established order and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair.”
I’m not going to advocate for the Joker’s political ideologies from “The Dark Knight” — one of the best movies ever — but I am going to agree with how that quote can apply to the College Football Playoff. As an alum of a Division I-AA football school (shoutout to Villanova in the second round of the FCS playoffs this Saturday!) I don’t have a significant attachment to FBS teams. My best friend went to Alabama for law school, so I dabble in Crimson Tide fandom here and there. But I mostly root for chaos and upsets.
Which could make this the best conference championship week of college football in quite some time.
The betting public seems to be on the other side, expecting the status quo to continue. All 4 unbeaten teams were seeing the majority of tickets on the spread at ESPN BET as of Tuesday night.
The public seems to think chaos won’t happen at all. The above scenarios paint a picture where we have four unbeatens and ZERO 1-loss Power 5 teams. In that situation, even the infamously indecisive Chidi Anagonye from The Good Place could pick the playoff teams without any stress.
But we need to have some chaos right? These head coaches have to earn their paychecks somehow. As the Joker notes, “If you’re good at something, never do it for free.”
Trend or Trap
We probably won’t see Gotham descend into true chaos, but might there be a few upsets brewing? Here’s a quick look at some of the notable betting storylines in Power 5 championship games this weekend.
No. 5 Oregon (-9.5, 65.5)at No. 3 Washington Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Oregon is a 9.5-point favorite over Washington despite losing their first meeting this season. It’s the first time since 2020 that a team has been at least a nine-point favorite in a same-season rematch after losing the first meeting. That year, Clemson won and covered an 11-point spread against Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game.
This doesn’t bode well for the Huskies, who clung to victory in Seattle but were significantly outplayed in most of the ways that are predictive moving forward. Washington was outgained by 126 yards, had nine fewer minutes of possession, and blew an 11-point lead. The Ducks were 0-3 on fourth down, including multiple possessions inside the 10-yard line and a third opportunity to seal the victory with 2 minutes left. Even after all that, Oregon missed a 43-yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT.
Washington deserved the win, and Michael Penix Jr. had his shining moment, but they were not the better team in October, and they won’t be the better team in December. I can’t wait for this game, but I would lean towards Oregon if forced to make a pick here. The Ducks are 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 15-3-1 ATS vs Washington since 2004 (including covering two months ago as 3.5-point dogs).
Washington is the hero the College Football Playoff deserves, but not the one it needs right now.
No. 1 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama (-5.5, 54.5) Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
This is the fourth time Alabama has been an underdog since 2010. All four of those games have been against Georgia.
The chart above paints a similar picture of Alabama as an underdog, occasionally sparking the upset and winning big, or losing by multiple scores.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are the Harvey Dent of college football. You either lose as an underdog, or you win so often that you see yourself become the villain. Georgia has lost just once in the last three calendar years, an SEC title game defeat to Alabama, which they avenged one month later.
Will the new Goliath fall? We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon.
The Bets
“Two-Face”: split bets on Georgia-Alabama
As I mentioned above, we’ve seen two versions of this Alabama team this season. We’ve also seen Georgia’s offense look unstoppable for much of the last month since Brock Bowers returned. There’s a reason the total opened at 49.5 and is now at 54.5 and pushing higher.
Ideally you could have gotten these bets in with more closing line value, but the concept is the same. I expect the over to hit, and I also expect Alabama to win outright, or Georgia to win in dominant fashion.
That means using Harvey Dent’s lucky coin and grabbing significant plus-money odds on two separate outcomes. On one side, give me Alabama ML (+180) and over 54.5 (-115) parlayed together. On the other side, I’ll take Georgia -11.5 (+175) and the over 54.5 (-115) in another parlay. Both would pay out over 4-to-1.
Place 0.5 units on each bet, so you have a full wager on the game, and if 1 of them hits, you’re still going to win more than double your money.
One last parting nugget of info: Alabama is 6-5 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread as an underdog under Nick Saban. Breaking that down, all six outright wins are also covers. Which means in all five Saban losses as an underdog, they failed to cover the spread, which gives me more confidence in the split bet above.
SMU +3.5 (-115), SMU ML (+150), SMU -6.5 alt line
Another different way to balance out your bets is to use a “ladder” when you think the projection or line is way off the market.
In this scenario, ESPN Analytics has SMU as an 8.3-point favorite against Tulane in the AAC title game, listing the Mustangs as the 20th best team and the Green Wave as the 50th best team according to FPI.
You could simply say “I’m very confident SMU covers here” and leave it at that. You could also say “SMU should win this game, so I’ll take the moneyline bet”. Or a riskier bettor could take the exact FPI projection and find an alternate line for SMU -8.5.
Laddering allows you to mitigate risk on an overall bet while banking in some extra upside for a line that has the potential for extreme outcomes. My suggestion for this bet would be a half-unit on SMU to cover +3.5, and a quarter-unit on each of the next two options listed above.
If SMU wins by a touchdown or more, all 3 bets pay out and you profit a lot more thanks to the risk you took. If SMU covers but doesn’t win, you end up about breakeven. But the reason for using less than full bets on each is that if SMU fails to cover the +3.5, you only lose one full unit rather than three all at once.
EDMONTON, Alberta — Reilly Smith scored with 0.4 seconds left on a shot that deflected in off Edmonton forward Leon Draisaitl‘s stick to give the Vegas Golden Knights a stunning 4-3 victory in Game 3 on Saturday night.
Smith’s goal is tied for the latest game winner in regulation in Stanley Cup playoffs history along with Nazem Kadri‘s goal for the Colorado Avalanche in 2020 and Jussi Jokinen’s goal for the Carolina Hurricanes in 2009, according to ESPN Research.
“Honestly, I’ve seen [Vegas forward William Karlsson] use that play a few times where he forechecks and spins it out in front of the net, jumping off the bench,” Smith said when asked about the play. “I think there was around seven seconds. I just tried. And being first on it. … So I thought there was a chance. And once it popped out I saw a lot of guys sell out. So I just hope that I had enough time to kind of pump-fake and find a lane and, you know, worked out.”
The game-winning goal came after Oilers star Connor McDavid tied it with 3:02 to go with a centering pass that went in off defender Brayden McNabb‘s skate.
“We didn’t sort it out very well to let the puck get into the slot. After that, it’s unlucky, it’s unfortunate,” Draisaitl said of the game-winning goal. “It goes off my stick, and I’m just trying to keep it out of the net. It’s just a bad bounce.”
After Corey Perry gave Edmonton an early 2-0 lead, Nicolas Roy and Smith tied it with goals in a 54-second span late in the first period. Karlsson put the Golden Knights in front with 2:55 left in the second, beating goalie Stuart Skinner off a give-and-go play with Noah Hanifin. And Adin Hill made 17 saves for Vegas.
The Golden Knights’ win Saturday cut Edmonton’s lead to 2-1 in the Western Conference semifinal series. Game 4 is Monday night in Edmonton.
“Before the series starts, if you were to tell us that we were gonna be up 2-1 after three, we’d be happy,” Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch said. “We’d be pleased with that, not only up 2-1, but Game 4 at home.”
“Big win for our team,” Smith said. “We need to use the momentum in front of us to push forward, but focus one game at a time. That’s kind of always been the mindset for this group. We have a lot of resiliency. So as long as you focus on that next game and get a little bit better every night.”
Roy, playing a day after being fined but not suspended for cross-checking Trent Frederic in the face in overtime in Game 2, cut it to 2-1 off a rebound with 4:43 left in the first. Smith then slipped a backhander through Skinner’s legs with 3:49 to go in the period.
Skinner stopped 20 shots, taking over in goal for the injured Calvin Pickard. Pickard appeared uncomfortable and was seen shaking out his left leg after Vegas forward Tomas Hertl landed on his left pad in Game 2.
WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Aaron Judge celebrated his return to the Sacramento area by hitting two home runs Saturday in a losing effort for the New York Yankees against the Athletics to extend his major league leading total to 14.
Judge is playing in the Sacramento area for the first time since college in New York’s first visit to the A’s temporary home near California’s capital.
Judge was born in Sacramento and grew up not far away in Linden and had many friends and family in the crowd of 12,113 at the minor league park that is hosting the A’s.
“It just felt like being home,” Judge said after the Yankees’ win Friday night. “Any time we play the A’s, that’s always something that’s familiar to me and close to home to me. It was special.”
After going 1-for-4 with a walk and two near homers in the series opener, Judge granted A’s owner John Fisher his wish Saturday in an 11-7 victory for the home team.
He led off the fourth inning with a homer off JP Sears and then connected again to lead off the sixth against Justin Sterner to the delight of the Yankees fans in attendance, many of whom chanted “MVP! MVP!”
“Not surprising,” Yankees starter Carlos Rodon said. “Once again putting on great swings like he always does. Really good player.”
The second homer gave Judge 14 on the season and gave him 41 career multihomer games — fourth most in Yankees history.
Judge leads the majors in batting average (.396), on-base percentage (.486), slugging percentage (.772) homers and RBIs (37).
When the A’s announced their plans last season to play in this minor league park, Fisher said he was excited to see what players like Judge could do in a stadium known for offense.
“We’re excited to be here for the next three years playing in this beautiful ballpark but also being able to watch some of the best players in baseball, whether they be Athletics players or Aaron Judge and others launch home runs out of this very intimate, the most intimate ballpark in all of Major League Baseball,” he said.
The ball carried well for everyone with the teams combining for six homers — including a go-ahead, three-run shot by Shea Langeliers for the A’s that pitcher Fernando Cruz was shocked carried over the wall.
Cruz said he went to back up home plate, assuming it would be a potential sacrifice fly only to see the ball carry out.
“It’s the same for all of us,” Cruz said. “It’s the same for the other team, the same for me, the same for my other teammates. Just have to come back tomorrow and do the same thing, pitch and locate a little better.”
Games at this stadium that had previously been solely used in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League have had a combined 2.75 home runs per game — up more than 40% from the rate of homers hit last season at the Oakland Coliseum.
“I’m sure as the summer builds up and the heat builds up, the PCL is known for that,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said about the way the ball carries. “I’d be speaking out of turn if I said I knew how this place is going to play throughout. Today was a little different throughout.”
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Boston Red Sox put first baseman Romy Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list with a left-quad contusion, retroactive to May 8. In a corresponding move, the Red Sox recalled second baseman Nick Sogard from Triple-A Worcester with a plan to have him split time with Abraham Toro.
Sogard was in the starting lineup Saturday against Kansas City left-hander Cole Ragans. He went 1-for-4 with a walk and a run scored in Boston’s 10-1 win.
“I think it’s a short-term thing,” Boston manager Alex Cora said of Gonzalez before Saturday’s game. “He wasn’t bouncing back the way we expected early. So it makes sense just to take care of him and he’ll be alright.”
There was plenty of drama following Thursday’s win over the Texas Rangers, when designated hitter Rafael Devers said he wouldn’t play first base. That caused the Red Sox brass to travel to Kansas City for meetings with Devers. Cora was asked if this latest move might lead to Devers starting to take ground balls at first base.
“We’ll keep talking about stuff,” he said, deflecting the question. “We’ll keep looking for our alternatives. We’ll do what we need to do to keep getting better. We’ve got Romy, we’ve got Toro now, and we’ve got Sogi. That’s the route we’re going to have right now.”
Devers had a big night at the plate Saturday, going 4-for-4 with three RBIs.
Gonzalez was hitting .308 in 17 games after replacing Triston Casas, who is out for the year with a ruptured tendon in his left knee. He has an OPS of .785.
Sogard made his season debut Saturday, after hitting .188 in 28 games with Worcester. His OPS is .562. He hit .273 in 31 games with Boston in 2024.
“He’s a good defender,” Cora said. “He’s a good player. We’ll mix and match with him and Toro. Today (Kansas City has) a tough lefty on the mound, so I think it made sense for him to play. The two of them will be splitting first the next week or so.”
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.