“Introduce a little anarchy, upset the established order and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair.”
I’m not going to advocate for the Joker’s political ideologies from “The Dark Knight” — one of the best movies ever — but I am going to agree with how that quote can apply to the College Football Playoff. As an alum of a Division I-AA football school (shoutout to Villanova in the second round of the FCS playoffs this Saturday!) I don’t have a significant attachment to FBS teams. My best friend went to Alabama for law school, so I dabble in Crimson Tide fandom here and there. But I mostly root for chaos and upsets.
Which could make this the best conference championship week of college football in quite some time.
The betting public seems to be on the other side, expecting the status quo to continue. All 4 unbeaten teams were seeing the majority of tickets on the spread at ESPN BET as of Tuesday night.
The public seems to think chaos won’t happen at all. The above scenarios paint a picture where we have four unbeatens and ZERO 1-loss Power 5 teams. In that situation, even the infamously indecisive Chidi Anagonye from The Good Place could pick the playoff teams without any stress.
But we need to have some chaos right? These head coaches have to earn their paychecks somehow. As the Joker notes, “If you’re good at something, never do it for free.”
Trend or Trap
We probably won’t see Gotham descend into true chaos, but might there be a few upsets brewing? Here’s a quick look at some of the notable betting storylines in Power 5 championship games this weekend.
No. 5 Oregon (-9.5, 65.5)at No. 3 Washington Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Oregon is a 9.5-point favorite over Washington despite losing their first meeting this season. It’s the first time since 2020 that a team has been at least a nine-point favorite in a same-season rematch after losing the first meeting. That year, Clemson won and covered an 11-point spread against Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game.
This doesn’t bode well for the Huskies, who clung to victory in Seattle but were significantly outplayed in most of the ways that are predictive moving forward. Washington was outgained by 126 yards, had nine fewer minutes of possession, and blew an 11-point lead. The Ducks were 0-3 on fourth down, including multiple possessions inside the 10-yard line and a third opportunity to seal the victory with 2 minutes left. Even after all that, Oregon missed a 43-yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT.
Washington deserved the win, and Michael Penix Jr. had his shining moment, but they were not the better team in October, and they won’t be the better team in December. I can’t wait for this game, but I would lean towards Oregon if forced to make a pick here. The Ducks are 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 15-3-1 ATS vs Washington since 2004 (including covering two months ago as 3.5-point dogs).
Washington is the hero the College Football Playoff deserves, but not the one it needs right now.
No. 1 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama (-5.5, 54.5) Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
This is the fourth time Alabama has been an underdog since 2010. All four of those games have been against Georgia.
The chart above paints a similar picture of Alabama as an underdog, occasionally sparking the upset and winning big, or losing by multiple scores.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are the Harvey Dent of college football. You either lose as an underdog, or you win so often that you see yourself become the villain. Georgia has lost just once in the last three calendar years, an SEC title game defeat to Alabama, which they avenged one month later.
Will the new Goliath fall? We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon.
The Bets
“Two-Face”: split bets on Georgia-Alabama
As I mentioned above, we’ve seen two versions of this Alabama team this season. We’ve also seen Georgia’s offense look unstoppable for much of the last month since Brock Bowers returned. There’s a reason the total opened at 49.5 and is now at 54.5 and pushing higher.
Ideally you could have gotten these bets in with more closing line value, but the concept is the same. I expect the over to hit, and I also expect Alabama to win outright, or Georgia to win in dominant fashion.
That means using Harvey Dent’s lucky coin and grabbing significant plus-money odds on two separate outcomes. On one side, give me Alabama ML (+180) and over 54.5 (-115) parlayed together. On the other side, I’ll take Georgia -11.5 (+175) and the over 54.5 (-115) in another parlay. Both would pay out over 4-to-1.
Place 0.5 units on each bet, so you have a full wager on the game, and if 1 of them hits, you’re still going to win more than double your money.
One last parting nugget of info: Alabama is 6-5 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread as an underdog under Nick Saban. Breaking that down, all six outright wins are also covers. Which means in all five Saban losses as an underdog, they failed to cover the spread, which gives me more confidence in the split bet above.
SMU +3.5 (-115), SMU ML (+150), SMU -6.5 alt line
Another different way to balance out your bets is to use a “ladder” when you think the projection or line is way off the market.
In this scenario, ESPN Analytics has SMU as an 8.3-point favorite against Tulane in the AAC title game, listing the Mustangs as the 20th best team and the Green Wave as the 50th best team according to FPI.
You could simply say “I’m very confident SMU covers here” and leave it at that. You could also say “SMU should win this game, so I’ll take the moneyline bet”. Or a riskier bettor could take the exact FPI projection and find an alternate line for SMU -8.5.
Laddering allows you to mitigate risk on an overall bet while banking in some extra upside for a line that has the potential for extreme outcomes. My suggestion for this bet would be a half-unit on SMU to cover +3.5, and a quarter-unit on each of the next two options listed above.
If SMU wins by a touchdown or more, all 3 bets pay out and you profit a lot more thanks to the risk you took. If SMU covers but doesn’t win, you end up about breakeven. But the reason for using less than full bets on each is that if SMU fails to cover the +3.5, you only lose one full unit rather than three all at once.
Missouri State senior football player Todric McGee died early Saturday from what police believe was a “possible accidental self-inflicted gunshot wound.”
A spokesperson for the Springfield (Missouri) Police Department said they found McGee at his residence while performing a wellness check Friday morning. He was transported to a hospital, where he died from his injuries.
He was 21.
“Our football family is in shock and in mourning at the loss of Todric,” Bears head football coach Ryan Beard said in a statement. “We ask everyone to please respect the privacy of his family and our MoState football team at this time as we begin the healing process. Join us in praying for Todric and the people who loved him.”
McGee, a fifth-year senior, started each of the past two seasons for the Bears. He earned All-Missouri Valley Football Conference honors in 2023.
“This tragedy has shaken our football program to the core, and we want them to know we are here to support them in every way possible at this extremely difficult time,” athletic director Patrick Ransdell said in the school’s statement.
The investigation into McGee’s death is ongoing, police said.
BOULDER, Colo. — Deion Sanders didn’t get a chance to fully enjoy the moment as his son, Shedeur, and his just-like-a-son, Travis Hunter, had their jerseys retired Saturday before the spring game.
The Colorado coach had too many other obligations — checking out his new QBs, watching special teams and making sure the product was entertaining for a national television audience tuning in.
He was appreciative of the moment, though, even if the jersey retirement has rankled some former Colorado players and fans.
“I looked in both of their eyes — I know [Shedeur and Travis] were pleased, they were thankful, and they were proud,” Deion Sanders said. “That means a lot to me.
“The time frame, nobody’s going to be happy with. Somebody’s always going have something to say. But the way we are right now, we are a now generation. … those guys deserve what they deserve right now. So I’m proud of them.”
It was one of the last times that Hunter and Shedeur Sanders will team up on the turf at Folsom Field. Standing at midfield, they watched their retired jersey numbers — No. 2 for Sanders, No. 12 for Hunter — unveiled on the east face of the stadium.
This kicked off a busy week for Hunter, the Heisman Trophy winner, and Sanders, the Johnny Unitas Award winner as college football’s top QB. Both are expected to be high draft picks when the NFL draft starts on Thursday.
Once the retired ceremony concluded, the Buffaloes got down to the business of football.
Namely, finding a successor for Shedeur Sanders.
It figures to be a two-QB race between Kaidon Salter, a transfer from Liberty, and Julian “JuJu” Lewis, the five-star recruit who arrived on campus last fall to get an early start.
Lewis was the first to take the field and there were early jitters. He mixed the pass with the run, which will be a familiar sight as Colorado emphasizes the ground game this season now that the younger Sanders is gone. The Buffaloes brought in Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk as the running backs coach to provide a spark.
“He’s still a young man,” Deion Sanders said of Lewis. “We don’t care about the age and the stage, though.”
Salter showed a veteran’s poise when it was his turn. The dual-threat QB threw for 56 TDs at Liberty and ran for 21 scores.
“I fell in love with the offense,” Salter said of why he chose Colorado. “We have a fully loaded staff here that knows what it takes to get to the next level.”
Shedeur Sanders sauntered along the sideline, taking in the action of his heirs apparent, Lewis and Salter. Looking on as well was Hunter.
Sanders and Hunter became the fifth and sixth players in Colorado’s 135-year history to have their jerseys retired.
At halftime, the Buffaloes announced the late coach Bill McCartney would be honored next season with a statue. McCartney, who led the program to its only football national championship in 1990, died in January at 84.
Deion Sanders said he only wishes the tribute came earlier.
“Why are we waiting? Wouldn’t (McCartney) have wanted him to see (it), to be involved in it, to feel it, to feel the love, the respect, the appreciation? Why’d we wait?” asked Sanders, who plans to honor McCartney next fall by donning a similar hat and jacket as the Hall of Fame coach used to wear. “Everything we get is right now. We want something, we order it off Amazon — right now. We’re not a … waiting generation no more. That’s over. That’s a wrap on that. Everybody in here is impatient. You download stuff right now, putting it out as I speak. Let’s stop.
“I’m sad because I wanted him to see that. He can’t see that.”
Bring on Syracuse?
The attendance was announced at 20,430 fans, which was down from the previous two spring games. Sanders thinks the NCAA nixing a plan to play Syracuse hurt ticket sales. Still, he wants to see more seats filled.
“We do have a tremendous fan base, but we need a little more support when it comes to whatever we do inside the stadium,” Sanders said. “We should be packing it like it’s a game.”
Walk-on honored
Walk-on safety Ben Finneseth was awarded a scholarship by Sanders.
“As soon as I put my head in his shoulder, I said, ‘Thank you for believing in me.’ Because he’s believed in me since Day 1,” Finneseth said. “I can’t thank everyone enough for giving me the opportunity.”
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
Oklahoma defensive tackle David Stone entered the NCAA transfer portal Friday, sources told ESPN.
Stone, a former five-star recruit and the No. 6 overall player in the ESPN 300 for the 2024 class, made the surprising decision to enter the portal after playing in all 13 games as a true freshman with the Sooners. The 6-foot-3 313-pounder saw limited playing time, playing 88 snaps and recording 6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and 1 sack.
Stone was expected to compete for a more significant role as a sophomore, and Oklahoma coach Brent Venables recently praised him as the Sooners’ most improved defensive tackle this offseason.
The Oklahoma native finished his high school career at IMG Academy in Florida and was a significant recruiting victory for Venables and his coaching staff in August 2023. Stone chose the Sooners over Texas A&M, Oregon, Florida, Miami and Michigan State.
The SEC does not grant immediate eligibility to players who transfer within the conference during the spring transfer window, so Stone would need to sit out the 2025 season if he moves on to another SEC program.
Oklahoma returns its top three defensive tackles from 2024 in Damonic Williams, Gracen Halton and Jayden Jackson. It also added Trent Wilson, the No. 164 recruit in the ESPN 300 for 2025, as an early enrollee this spring.