Hype Trap Bet: Expect chaos in conference championship games
“Introduce a little anarchy, upset the established order and everything becomes chaos. I’m an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It’s fair.”
I’m not going to advocate for the Joker’s political ideologies from “The Dark Knight” — one of the best movies ever — but I am going to agree with how that quote can apply to the College Football Playoff. As an alum of a Division I-AA football school (shoutout to Villanova in the second round of the FCS playoffs this Saturday!) I don’t have a significant attachment to FBS teams. My best friend went to Alabama for law school, so I dabble in Crimson Tide fandom here and there. But I mostly root for chaos and upsets.
Which could make this the best conference championship week of college football in quite some time.
Excluding the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season, only seven 1-loss Power 5 teams have missed the CFP (less than one per year). With the right amount of chaos, we could have four of them this year alone. Sure, that would require Iowa Hawkeyes to beat Michigan Wolverines, Louisville Cardinals to beat Florida State Seminoles, Alabama to beat Georgia Bulldogs, Oregon Ducks to beat Washington Huskies and Texas Longhorns to beat Oklahoma State Cowboys. But it’s possible!
The betting public seems to be on the other side, expecting the status quo to continue. All 4 unbeaten teams were seeing the majority of tickets on the spread at ESPN BET as of Tuesday night.
The public seems to think chaos won’t happen at all. The above scenarios paint a picture where we have four unbeatens and ZERO 1-loss Power 5 teams. In that situation, even the infamously indecisive Chidi Anagonye from The Good Place could pick the playoff teams without any stress.
But we need to have some chaos right? These head coaches have to earn their paychecks somehow. As the Joker notes, “If you’re good at something, never do it for free.”
Trend or Trap
We probably won’t see Gotham descend into true chaos, but might there be a few upsets brewing? Here’s a quick look at some of the notable betting storylines in Power 5 championship games this weekend.
No. 5 Oregon (-9.5, 65.5) at No. 3 Washington
Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Oregon is a 9.5-point favorite over Washington despite losing their first meeting this season. It’s the first time since 2020 that a team has been at least a nine-point favorite in a same-season rematch after losing the first meeting. That year, Clemson won and covered an 11-point spread against Notre Dame in the ACC Championship Game.
This doesn’t bode well for the Huskies, who clung to victory in Seattle but were significantly outplayed in most of the ways that are predictive moving forward. Washington was outgained by 126 yards, had nine fewer minutes of possession, and blew an 11-point lead. The Ducks were 0-3 on fourth down, including multiple possessions inside the 10-yard line and a third opportunity to seal the victory with 2 minutes left. Even after all that, Oregon missed a 43-yard field goal that would have sent the game to OT.
Washington deserved the win, and Michael Penix Jr. had his shining moment, but they were not the better team in October, and they won’t be the better team in December. I can’t wait for this game, but I would lean towards Oregon if forced to make a pick here. The Ducks are 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season and 15-3-1 ATS vs Washington since 2004 (including covering two months ago as 3.5-point dogs).
Washington is the hero the College Football Playoff deserves, but not the one it needs right now.
No. 1 Georgia at No. 8 Alabama (-5.5, 54.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
This is the fourth time Alabama has been an underdog since 2010. All four of those games have been against Georgia.
The chart above paints a similar picture of Alabama as an underdog, occasionally sparking the upset and winning big, or losing by multiple scores.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are the Harvey Dent of college football. You either lose as an underdog, or you win so often that you see yourself become the villain. Georgia has lost just once in the last three calendar years, an SEC title game defeat to Alabama, which they avenged one month later.
Will the new Goliath fall? We’ll find out on Saturday afternoon.
The Bets
“Two-Face”: split bets on Georgia-Alabama
As I mentioned above, we’ve seen two versions of this Alabama team this season. We’ve also seen Georgia’s offense look unstoppable for much of the last month since Brock Bowers returned. There’s a reason the total opened at 49.5 and is now at 54.5 and pushing higher.
Ideally you could have gotten these bets in with more closing line value, but the concept is the same. I expect the over to hit, and I also expect Alabama to win outright, or Georgia to win in dominant fashion.
That means using Harvey Dent’s lucky coin and grabbing significant plus-money odds on two separate outcomes. On one side, give me Alabama ML (+180) and over 54.5 (-115) parlayed together. On the other side, I’ll take Georgia -11.5 (+175) and the over 54.5 (-115) in another parlay. Both would pay out over 4-to-1.
Place 0.5 units on each bet, so you have a full wager on the game, and if 1 of them hits, you’re still going to win more than double your money.
One last parting nugget of info: Alabama is 6-5 outright and 6-4-1 against the spread as an underdog under Nick Saban. Breaking that down, all six outright wins are also covers. Which means in all five Saban losses as an underdog, they failed to cover the spread, which gives me more confidence in the split bet above.
SMU +3.5 (-115), SMU ML (+150), SMU -6.5 alt line
Another different way to balance out your bets is to use a “ladder” when you think the projection or line is way off the market.
In this scenario, ESPN Analytics has SMU as an 8.3-point favorite against Tulane in the AAC title game, listing the Mustangs as the 20th best team and the Green Wave as the 50th best team according to FPI.
You could simply say “I’m very confident SMU covers here” and leave it at that. You could also say “SMU should win this game, so I’ll take the moneyline bet”. Or a riskier bettor could take the exact FPI projection and find an alternate line for SMU -8.5.
Laddering allows you to mitigate risk on an overall bet while banking in some extra upside for a line that has the potential for extreme outcomes. My suggestion for this bet would be a half-unit on SMU to cover +3.5, and a quarter-unit on each of the next two options listed above.
If SMU wins by a touchdown or more, all 3 bets pay out and you profit a lot more thanks to the risk you took. If SMU covers but doesn’t win, you end up about breakeven. But the reason for using less than full bets on each is that if SMU fails to cover the +3.5, you only lose one full unit rather than three all at once.
The final week ahead of the 2024-25 NHL trade deadline brought new faces to contending teams across the league, reaching a crescendo on deadline day, with Mikko Rantanen traded to the Dallas Stars, Brad Marchand shipped to the Florida Panthers and the Colorado Avalanche loading up with two new centers (Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle).
And now, the race for the playoffs is officially on!
In the East, the Atlantic Division seeds seem pretty well set, and that goes for two of three Metro Division seeds as well; the New Jersey Devils, in the No. 3 spot, are dealing with major injury woes. They are currently without Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler.
But it’s in the wild-card race where things get truly, well, wild. The Columbus Blue Jackets (68 points in 62 games) and Ottawa Senators (67 in 61) hold those positions heading into Saturday’s slate of games. But five teams are within four points of the Sens, with around 20 games left each.
There are six teams in the West that seem fairly secure in their playoff position — the top three Central teams (along with the Minnesota Wild in the first wild-card spot), as well as the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers in the Pacific. The Los Angeles Kings (71 points in 60 games) and Vancouver Canucks (69 in 62) have some work left to do to stave off the Calgary Flames (68 in 62), St. Louis Blues (68 in 64) and Utah Hockey Club (66 in 63).
There is a lot of runway left until the final day of the season on April 17, and we’ll help you keep track of it all here on the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide detail on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Saturday’s schedule
Friday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Columbus Blue Jackets
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Ottawa Senators
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Saturday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators, 12:30 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers, 12:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning, 3 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, 6 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames, 7 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
St. Louis Blues at Los Angeles Kings, 8 p.m.
Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, 10 p.m.
New York Islanders at San Jose Sharks, 10 p.m.
Friday’s scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets 6, New Jersey Devils 1
Washington Capitals 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Utah Hockey Club 3 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
St. Louis Blues 4, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 105.4
Next game: vs. BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 104.5
Next game: @ COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 20
Points pace: 103.2
Next game: vs. BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 21
Points pace: 90.1
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 85.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 87.3
Next game: @ CGY (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 19.8%
Tragic number: 40
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 85.9
Next game: @ OTT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 8.3%
Tragic number: 38
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2.5%
Tragic number: 34
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 21
Points pace: 72.6
Next game: @ FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 30
Metro Division
Points: 90
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 117.1
Next game: vs. SEA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 101.5
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92.3
Next game: @ PHI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 86.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 20
Points pace: 89.9
Next game: @ NYR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 27.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 88.6
Next game: @ OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 31.1%
Tragic number: 41
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 21
Points pace: 84.7
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 29.7%
Tragic number: 39
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 80.7
Next game: vs. SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 9.5%
Tragic number: 34
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 73.2
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 26
Central Division
Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 117.9
Next game: @ CAR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 111.1
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98.9
Next game: vs. TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98.9
Next game: vs. PIT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 94.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 37.2%
Tragic number: 36
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 85.9
Next game: vs. TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 26.4%
Tragic number: 36
Points: 53
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 70.1
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 48
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 62.5
Next game: @ NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18
Pacific Division
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 20
Points pace: 108.5
Next game: vs. LA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 100.5
Next game: vs. DAL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 22
Points pace: 97.0
Next game: vs. STL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 84.1%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91.3
Next game: vs. DAL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 30.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 89.9
Next game: vs. MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 27.5%
Tragic number: 40
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 80.7
Next game: vs. NYI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 72.9
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 55.1
Next game: vs. NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 11
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters.
Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Points: 48
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 53
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 54
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 61
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 63
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 67
Regulation wins: 29
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Sports
Winners and losers of the 2025 NHL trade deadline including the Panthers, Stars and double-flip deals
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Ryan S. Clark
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Greg Wyshynski
The NHL trade deadline for the 2024-25 season is not until March 7, but teams have not waited until the last minute to make major moves.
For every significant trade that occurs during the season, you’ll find a grade for it here, the Colorado Avalanche and San Jose Sharks swapping goaltenders, Cam Fowler to the St. Louis Blues, Kaapo Kakko to the Seattle Kraken, the blockbuster deal sending Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes and Martin Necas to the Avalanche, J.T. Miller from the Vancouver Canucks to the New York Rangers, and the Canucks staying busy and getting Marcus Pettersson from the Pittsburgh Penguins.
March 1 featured three big trades, with Ryan Lindgren headed to the Colorado Avalanche, the Minnesota Wild adding Gustav Nyquist, and Seth Jones joining the Florida Panthers. The middle of deadline week included a reunion for Yanni Gourde, heading back to the Tampa Bay Lightning along with Oliver Bjorkstrand. March 6 also brought a flurry, with Reilly Smith traded back to the Vegas Golden Knights, Brock Nelson headed to the Avalanche and Jake Walman shipped to the Edmonton Oilers.
Read on for grades from Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski, and check back the next time a big deal breaks.
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