Within half an hour of the latest truce ending on Friday, Israeli fighter jets were bombing Gaza, and Hamas was firing salvos of rockets into Israel.
Although the Israel Defence Forces had been preparing for a resumption of their ground offensive if further truces could not be agreed, both sides are motivated to progress the release of hostages.
So why have the negotiations stalled and war resumed?
One of the IDF’s objectives is to liberate hostages, and the truces have proven an effective way to achieve this objective.
However, the IDF also wants to destroy Hamas, and is determined to resume military operations if the hostage negotiations stall.
Hamas knows it is no match militarily for the IDF, but is using the hostages as leverage to ensure its survival through extended ceasefires.
The initial focus was on releasing Israeli women and children, with three Palestinian prisoners released for every hostage liberated.
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However, the next category of hostages will include young males and foreign nationals held, and Hamas will place a greater value on these hostages before considering their release.
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4:32
Israel’s military has begun Phase 2 of its offensive
The IDF soldiers will probably be the most prized hostages held by Hamas, and although Hamas might drip-feed their release, they only need a handful of IDF hostages – plus maybe a couple of foreign nationals – to maintain a credible negotiation capability.
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Hamas once held an IDF soldier for five years and only agreed an exchange in return for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners – one of which was Yahya Sinwar, who is now the leader of Hamas in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israel appears primarily focused on destroying Hamas, and although any truce will be welcome if it liberates hostages, the IDF will not tolerate any prevarication by Hamas.
Although Israel has resumed its combat operations, the military objectives will likely remain unchanged: destroying Hamas and liberating all hostages.
The second phase of its ground offensive appears to be focused on southern Gaza, where the population density is higher.
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0:59
Israel launches strikes on Gaza as truce ends
The IDF admits the casualties will be greater during Phase 2 – for both the IDF and the Palestinian civilians.
Israel claims to have killed 5,000 Hamas fighters in the first phase of the war, but in total more than 15,000 Palestinians have lost their lives since the start of the conflict – and that ignores those bodies yet to be discovered in the rubble.
If Israel’s military objective remains to destroy Hamas and they have killed 20% of the fighters to date, then by extrapolation the next phase of the conflict could result in another 60,000 Palestinian lives lost – not accounting for the increased risk due to the greater population density in the south of Gaza.
Any such dramatic increase in the levels of civilian casualties or escalation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza will be of grave concern to the international community.
Even the US – Israel’s closest ally – is using increasingly cautionary language and urging restraint. It will be very difficult for Israel to maintain international support for a prolonged offensive in pursuit of its military objectives.
Regardless, Israel is clearly not prepared to let Hamas seize the initiative.
Israel supports an extension to the truce in exchange for hostages, leaving Hamas to choose between negotiation or war.
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3:18
Fighting resumes in Gaza
Qatari mediators are continuing their efforts to negotiate a fresh agreement, and we should expect periodic pauses in the hostilities as fresh agreements are reached and more hostages are released.
However, these are increasingly frustrating times for Israel who, despite overwhelming military superiority and securing the release of more than 100 hostages, are fast losing the initiative in this conflict.
Despite mounting a determined and aggressive ground offensive into Gaza, Israel has not destroyed Hamas, has yet to free all hostages, and is facing increasing calls to end the war.
Despite the devastation, the conflict has done little to resolve the underlying issues that polarise opinions in the region.
However, from the horrors of war, the opportunities for a lasting peace emerge, but only with international commitment and leadership will lasting progress be made.
Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant has held talks over the possibility of expanding Israel’s military offensive – as tanks were pictured on the country’s border with Lebanon.
In a statement on Saturday, Mr Gallant’s office said he was conducting “an operational situation assessment” regarding what it called “the expansion of IDF (Israel Defence Forces) activities in the northern arena”.
Israeli tanks and troops were later pictured near the border, in what Sky News’ security and defence editorDeborah Haynes said is the “clearest sign yet” that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah is “about to expand even further”.
The military said it was mobilising three more battalions of reserve soldiers to serve across the country. It had already sent two brigades to northern Israel to prepare for a possible ground invasion.
The deployment comes after Hezbollah confirmed that its leader of more than three decades Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday.
The militant group – which is aligned with Iran – vowed to continue its fight against Israel even as attacks continued to bombard areas around Lebanon’s capital.
At least six people were killed in the strikes – not including Nasrallah – and 91 were wounded, according to preliminary figures from Lebanon’s health ministry.
The United Nations high commissioner for refugees said that airstrikes led to the displacement of “well over 200,000” people inside Lebanon.
“More than 50,000 Lebanese people, and Syrians living in Lebanon, have crossed the border into Syria,” Filippo Grande wrote on X on Saturday.
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‘Israel is on the move’
In his first public remarks since the killing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Nasrallah as a “terrorist” and said his killing would help bring displaced Israelis back to their homes in the north and would pressure Hamas to free Israeli hostages held in Gaza.
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1:09
Netanyahu: Nasrallah ‘was the terrorist’
But with the threat of retaliation high, he said the coming days would bring “significant challenges” and warned Iran against trying to strike.
“There is no place in Iran or the Middle East that the long arm of Israel will not reach, and today you already know how true this is,” Mr Netanyahu said.
“We have great achievements, but the work is not yet complete. In the coming days we will face significant challenges, and we will face them together,” he added.
“We are determined to continue to strike at our enemies, return our residents to their homes, and return all our abductees. We do not forget them for a moment.
“Israel is on the move.”
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the killing and announced five days of mourning. He said Lebanon will make Israel “regret their actions” and Nasrallah’s blood “will not go unavenged”.
In a letter to the UN Security Council, Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani asked for an “emergency meeting” of the 15-member body, calling on it to “compel Israel” to cease all military action in both Gaza and Lebanon and “comply with relevant UNSC resolutions”.
Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters took to the streets of Tehran, waving Hezbollah flags and chanting “death to Israel” and “death to Netanyahu the murderer”.
People also gathered in the Lebanese city of Sidon and in Amman, Jordan, to mourn Nasrallah. The 64-year-old had countless followers across the Arab and Islamic world, but was viewed as an extremist in much of the West.
Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?
Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.
There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.
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But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution.And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?
US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.
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A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.
“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.
With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.
For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.
Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?
If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.
But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.
The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.
For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.
Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.
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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?
There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?
That also comes down to Israel.
It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.
The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.
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Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.
If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.
The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it carried out a “precise strike” on Hezbollah’s “central headquarters”, which it claimed was “embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut”.
The first wave of attacks shook windows across the city and sent thick clouds of smoke billowing into the air.
While Israel stressed it had been a “precise” strike, preliminary figures from Lebanon’s health ministry confirmed at least six other people were killed and 91 were wounded.
Israel said Nasrallah was the intended target and initially there were claims he had survived.
However, after several hours of confusion, his death was confirmed by Israel.
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“Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorise the world,” the IDF said.
Hours later, a defiant Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death but vowed their fight with Israel would continue after confirming they had fired upon sites in northern Israel.
“The leadership of Hezbollah pledges to the highest, holiest, and most precious martyr in our path full of sacrifices and martyrs to continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people,” they said.
Alongside claiming to have killed Nasrallah, the IDF said it had killed a number of other commanders, including Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front.
The country’s military said the strike was carried out while Hezbollah leadership met at their underground headquarters in Dahieh.
In the aftermath of the most recent attacks, an Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment on whether US-made Mark 84 heavy bombs were used in the strike against Nasrallah.
“The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel,” Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said in a media briefing.
He continued: “We hope this will change Hezbollah’s actions.”
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6:17
Hezbollah leader killed says IDF
He added the number of civilian casualties was unclear but blamed Hezbollah for positioning itself in residential areas.
“We’ve seen Hezbollah carry out attacks against us for a year. It’s safe to assume that they are going to continue carrying out their attacks against us or try to,” he said.
Meanwhile, Iran said it was in constant contact with Hezbollah and other allies to determine its “next step”, but Reuters reported the country’s supreme leader was transferred to a secure location in light of the latest attack.
Speaking after the attack, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Muslims “to stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah” and said: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront,” state media reported.
Nasrallah’s death will be a blow to Hezbollah as it continues to reel from a campaign of escalating Israeli attacks.
Nasrallah is latest Hezbollah leader to fall
While Nasrallah’s death is certainly the most high-profile of recent attacks, it continues a trend of Israel targeting Hezbollah’s leadership structure.
Also on Saturday, in the early hours of the morning, the commander of the group’s missile unit and his deputy were killed in another Israeli attack in southern Lebanon.
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