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Within half an hour of the latest truce ending on Friday, Israeli fighter jets were bombing Gaza, and Hamas was firing salvos of rockets into Israel.

Although the Israel Defence Forces had been preparing for a resumption of their ground offensive if further truces could not be agreed, both sides are motivated to progress the release of hostages.

So why have the negotiations stalled and war resumed?

One of the IDF’s objectives is to liberate hostages, and the truces have proven an effective way to achieve this objective.

However, the IDF also wants to destroy Hamas, and is determined to resume military operations if the hostage negotiations stall.

Hamas knows it is no match militarily for the IDF, but is using the hostages as leverage to ensure its survival through extended ceasefires.

The initial focus was on releasing Israeli women and children, with three Palestinian prisoners released for every hostage liberated.

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However, the next category of hostages will include young males and foreign nationals held, and Hamas will place a greater value on these hostages before considering their release.

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Israel’s military has begun Phase 2 of its offensive

The IDF soldiers will probably be the most prized hostages held by Hamas, and although Hamas might drip-feed their release, they only need a handful of IDF hostages – plus maybe a couple of foreign nationals – to maintain a credible negotiation capability.

Hamas once held an IDF soldier for five years and only agreed an exchange in return for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners – one of which was Yahya Sinwar, who is now the leader of Hamas in Gaza.

Read more: Who are the first 79 Israeli hostages released by Hamas?

Aftermath of explosions in Gaza Strip following end of ceasefire
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Aftermath of explosions in Gaza Strip following the end of the ceasefire

Meanwhile, Israel appears primarily focused on destroying Hamas, and although any truce will be welcome if it liberates hostages, the IDF will not tolerate any prevarication by Hamas.

Although Israel has resumed its combat operations, the military objectives will likely remain unchanged: destroying Hamas and liberating all hostages.

The second phase of its ground offensive appears to be focused on southern Gaza, where the population density is higher.

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Israel launches strikes on Gaza as truce ends

The IDF admits the casualties will be greater during Phase 2 – for both the IDF and the Palestinian civilians.

Israel claims to have killed 5,000 Hamas fighters in the first phase of the war, but in total more than 15,000 Palestinians have lost their lives since the start of the conflict – and that ignores those bodies yet to be discovered in the rubble.

If Israel’s military objective remains to destroy Hamas and they have killed 20% of the fighters to date, then by extrapolation the next phase of the conflict could result in another 60,000 Palestinian lives lost – not accounting for the increased risk due to the greater population density in the south of Gaza.

Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza
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Pressure is steadily growing on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war

Read more:
Blinken tells Israel it needs ‘clear plan’ to protect civilians
Israel accuses Hamas of violating truce deal – military operations resume

Any such dramatic increase in the levels of civilian casualties or escalation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza will be of grave concern to the international community.

Even the US – Israel’s closest ally – is using increasingly cautionary language and urging restraint. It will be very difficult for Israel to maintain international support for a prolonged offensive in pursuit of its military objectives.

Regardless, Israel is clearly not prepared to let Hamas seize the initiative.

Israel supports an extension to the truce in exchange for hostages, leaving Hamas to choose between negotiation or war.

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Fighting resumes in Gaza

Qatari mediators are continuing their efforts to negotiate a fresh agreement, and we should expect periodic pauses in the hostilities as fresh agreements are reached and more hostages are released.

However, these are increasingly frustrating times for Israel who, despite overwhelming military superiority and securing the release of more than 100 hostages, are fast losing the initiative in this conflict.

Despite mounting a determined and aggressive ground offensive into Gaza, Israel has not destroyed Hamas, has yet to free all hostages, and is facing increasing calls to end the war.

Despite the devastation, the conflict has done little to resolve the underlying issues that polarise opinions in the region.

However, from the horrors of war, the opportunities for a lasting peace emerge, but only with international commitment and leadership will lasting progress be made.

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MI5 is also trying to send a signal to China with spying warning to parliamentarians

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MI5 is also trying to send a signal to China with spying warning to parliamentarians

The warning was meant for British parliamentarians, of course, but MI5 and the government are also trying to send a signal to China.

We know what you are doing, and in ministers’ words today we “won’t stand for it”.

But in the wake of the collapsed China spying case last month, the security services also want to reestablish a badly dented sense of deterrence.

Politics latest: China responds to MI5’s spy warning to MPs

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Security minister accuses China of interference

That case against two British men accused of spying for Beijing fell apart because officials would not use the words “enemy” or “national security threat” to describe China.

The failure projected a sense of weakness in the face of Chinese espionage efforts, something the government is keen to dispel.

(L-R) Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry had the charges against them withdrawn in September. Pics: Reuters
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(L-R) Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry had the charges against them withdrawn in September. Pics: Reuters

Those efforts remain persistent and dangerous, security officials insist.

China has always aggressively sought the official and commercial secrets of Western nations.

It regards that mission as a patriotic duty, an essential part of a national project to catch up with and then overtake the West.

In the words of Britain’s security minister, Dan Jarvis, on Tuesday, China seeks “to interfere in our sovereign affairs in favour of its own interests”.

Read more:
Parliamentarians warned of spying attempts from China agents

Indeed, much of China’s technological and economic progress was, until recently, built on intellectual property stolen from rival nations.

Its private sector has been notorious for ripping off and reverse engineering Western know-how, pilfered from joint venture partners or through commercial espionage.

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Intelligence agencies say the Chinese have also hoovered up vast amounts of personal data from all of us through social media platforms like TikTok and other methods, collecting in bulk for now, for sifting and harvesting later.

Officially, the Chinese government denies all these allegations. It has to be said that Western spies are also hard at work snooping on China.

But critics say Western nations have been naive and too trusting of the Chinese threat.

While the British government remains unsure whether to identify China as an enemy or simply a commercial rival, an ambivalence remains, which Beijing will continue doing its best to exploit.

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Sudan ‘epicentre of suffering in the world’, says UN humanitarian chief

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Sudan 'epicentre of suffering in the world', says UN humanitarian chief

Mass killings and millions forced to flee for their lives have made Sudan the “epicentre of suffering in the world”, according to the UN’s humanitarian affairs chief.

About 12 million people are believed to have been displaced and at least 40,000 killed in the civil war – but aid groups say the true death toll could be far greater.

Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, told Sky’s The World With Yalda Hakim the situation was “horrifying”.

“It’s utterly grim right now – it’s the epicentre of suffering in the world,” he said of Sudan.

The war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – who were once allies – started in Khartoum in April 2023 but has spread across the country.

A child receives treatment at a camp in Tawila after fleeing Al Fashir . Pic: AP
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A child receives treatment at a camp in Tawila after fleeing Al Fashir . Pic: AP

The fighting has inflicted almost unimaginable misery on a nation that was already suffering a humanitarian crisis.

Famine has been declared in some areas and Mr Fletcher said there was a “sense of rampant brutality and impunity” in the east African nation.

“I spoke to so many people who told me stories of mass executions, mass rape, sexual violence being weaponised as part of the conflict,” he said.

The fall of a key city

Last month, the RSF captured Al Fashir – the capital of North Darfur state – after a siege of more than 18 months.

Hundreds have been killed and tens of thousands forced to flee, according to the UN and aid groups.

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Explained: Key Sudan city falls

The World Health Organisation said more than 450 people alone were reportedly killed at a maternity hospital in the city.

RSF fighters also went house to house to murder civilians and carried out sexual assault and rape, according to aid workers and displaced people.

The journey to escape Al Fashir goes through areas with no access to food, water or medical help – and Mr Fletcher said people had described to him the “horrors” of trying to make it out.

“One woman [was] carrying her dead neighbour’s malnourished child – and then she herself was attacked on the road as she fled towards Tawila,” he told Sky News.

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Investigating thousands missing in Sudan’s war

Such is the violence in Al Fashir, blood from mass killings appears to stain the sand in satellite images from Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab, Mr Fletcher added.

“We’ve got to make sure there are teams going in to investigate these atrocities. Al Fashir is a crime scene right now,” he said.

“But we’ve also got to make sure we’ve got protection for civilians from the future atrocities.”

Children at the forefront of suffering

Mr Fletcher told Yalda Hakim that children had “borne the brunt” and made up one in five of those killed in Al Fashir.

He said a child he met “recoiled from me” and “flinched” when he gestured towards a Manchester City logo on his shirt when they were kicking a ball around.

“This is a six-year-old, so what has he seen and experienced to be that terrified of other people?” he asked.

He’s urging the international community to boost funding to help civilians, and a “much more vigorous, energised diplomacy” to try to end the fighting.

“This can’t be so complex, so difficult, that the world can’t fix it,” he told Sky News.

“And we’ve seen some momentum. We’ve seen the quad – Egypt, America, Saudi, the UAE just recently – getting more engaged.

“I’m in daily contact with them all, including the White House envoy, Dr Massad Boulos, but we need to sustain that diplomatic engagement and show the creativity and patience that’s needed.”

Read more:
Genocide unfolding in Darfur, warns Sudanese government

Tens of thousands killed in two days’ in Sudan city

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In full: Monday’s The World

Hopes of an imminent end to the violence currently look unlikely.

Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, said on Friday that his forces would not stop until the RSF is wiped out.

“This war will not come to an end with a truce, but when rebels are destroyed,” he said – according to a statement from Sudan’s ruling council.

“We call on all Sudanese to join the fight, and for those who can carry weapons to come forward.”

The RSF and the Sudanese army have previously agreed to various ceasefire proposals during their two-and-a-half-year-old war, but none have succeeded.

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UN Security Council backs Trump peace plan for Gaza

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UN Security Council backs Trump peace plan for Gaza

The United Nations Security Council has passed a US resolution which endorses Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza.

Russia, which had circulated a rival resolution, abstained along with China on the 13-0 vote.

The resolution endorses the US president’s 20-point ceasefire plan, which calls for a yet-to-be-established Board of Peace as a transitional authority that Mr Trump would head.

Read more: What does Trump’s Gaza peace plan look like?

US ambassador Mike Waltz said the resolution was “historic and constructive”, but it was “just the beginning”.

“Today’s resolution represents another significant step towards a stable Gaza that will be able to prosper and an environment that will allow Israel to live in security,” he added.

Pic: Reuters
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Pic: Reuters

The proposal gives no timeline or guarantee for an independent Palestinian state, only saying “the conditions may finally be in place” after advances in the reconstruction of Gaza and reforms of the Palestinian Authority – now governing parts of the West Bank.

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It also says that the US “will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence”.

The language on statehood was strengthened after Arab nations and Palestinians pressured the US over nearly two weeks of negotiations, but it has also angered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He has vowed to oppose any attempt to establish a Palestinian state, and on Sunday pledged to demilitarise Gaza “the easy way or the hard way”.

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From October: How will peace plan unfold?

Hamas: International force is ‘in favour of’ Israel

In a statement rejecting the resolutions’ passing, a Hamas spokesperson said that it “falls far short of the political and humanitarian demands and rights of our Palestinian people”.

“The effects and repercussions of this war continue to this day, despite the declared end of the war according to President Trump’s plan,” they added.

“The resolution imposes an international trusteeship mechanism on the Gaza Strip, which our people, their forces, and factions reject.”

The spokesperson then said that “assigning the international force with tasks and roles inside the Gaza Strip, including disarming the resistance, strips it of its neutrality, and turns it into a party to the conflict in favour of the occupation”.

Read more:
Trump asks Israeli president to ‘fully pardon’ Netanyahu
Inside Jordan warehouse holding Gaza aid ‘refused entry by Israel’

The Palestinian Authority, however, issued a statement welcoming the resolution and said it is ready to take part in its implementation.

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