If you want a sensible document with some interesting and well-reasoned ideas for what we ought to do about the UK economy (and some brilliant charts), you could hardly do better than read the Resolution Foundation’s book/report on the topic, Ending Stagnation.
It’s a thick tome with plenty of analysis about the problems facing this country – low earnings growth, weak productivity, high inequality and so on – and a bit about our strengths too. And it synthesises much of what you might call the “Whitehall view” about what needs to be done to try to kickstart growth in the economy.
So it suggests raising benefits, lifting public investment, removing some of the countless allowances which allow people to avoid taxes, improving statutory sick pay and trying to lift cities outside London.
It’s a useful checklist, even if much of it will be vaguely familiar to anyone who has followed the economic debate in recent years.
Weak productivity is one of Britain’s biggest problems. If our bang-for-buck (which is ultimately what productivity is a measure of) had been stronger in recent years, then a lot of issues we’re currently plagued with – from high public debt to weak income growth – could have been solved.
And while there’s a good chance this document becomes a sort of Bible, which both Labour and the Conservative Party borrow from, as they seek to construct their policy manifestos ahead of the coming general election – it is not for nothing that both Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer both appeared at the launch event.
Both parties want this election to be fought on economic grounds.
Both parties want the British public to know that they want to increase Britain’s economic growth rate. Indeed, Starmer has even pledged that under Labour, UK per capita growth will outpace the rest of the G7 in the coming years – an ambitious promise, though it’s unclear how he or anyone could achieve it.
And that’s because while there are some obvious ingredients for economic growth, it’s a fiendishly difficult thing to generate, or for that matter to understand.
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Starmer: ‘This is an age of insecurity’
Reservations about the report
Economists still debate why the US has a perennial productivity advantage over so many of its rich world counterparts. Is it tax policy? Does it come down to investment incentives, to the existence of strong markets, or to something else completely unquantifiable? The short answer is no-one knows for sure.
But if you’re after a decent handbook of some of the most plausible policies for boosting that growth rate, you could hardly do better than the Resolution Foundation’s tome – with a few reservations.
The first is that, this being a left-leaning thinktank, the solutions do incline towards higher taxes. Others will have different views.
Second, while the report suggests government should be investing more and mentions the need for more housebuilding in passing, it could put even more emphasis on the desperate deterioration of Britain’s physical infrastructure.
Third, and most problematic, one of the most important of all economic factors barely crops up in the report at all: energy. Britain has some of the developed world’s highest energy costs.
This is at least part of the explanation for weak productivity and investment in recent years. Bringing down wholesale energy costs would make an enormous difference in boosting activity in this country – not just for manufacturing firms but also for everyone else.
This comes back to something else. It’s tempting, since Britain’s stagnation began at the time of the financial crisis, to assume that it must all be related to what happened in the square mile back in 2008. And this is almost certainly a large part of the explanation.
However, something else happened around then too: Britain went from being a net oil and gas exporter, able to enjoy a large and constant stream of public and private revenues from the North Sea, to being a net importer. It’s going way too far to blame this watershed shift for everything, but it’s equally odd that it isn’t mentioned even once in the Resolution Foundation document.
It all matters, even the boring stuff we mostly ignore. This new document is a fascinating blueprint on some of the things we could do to get this country going again.
But it’s just the beginning of the conversation – not the end of it.
Retail giants including Asda, Marks & Spencer, Primark and Tesco will mount a new year campaign to warn Rachel Reeves that plans to hike business rates on larger shops will put jobs and stores under threat.
Sky News has learnt that some of Britain’s biggest chains – which also include J Sainsbury, Morrisons and Kingfisher-owned B&Q – have agreed to revive a group called the Retail Jobs Alliance (RJA).
Sources said the RJA, which was established to push for reform of Britain’s archaic business rates regime, is expected to engage with the Treasury in the coming weeks to say that a wave of tax rises and regulatory changes will threaten investment by major retailers in economically deprived areas of the country.
They intend to produce analysis showing many of the stores with so-called rateable values above a new £500,000 threshold are located in areas which rely on retailers for employment opportunities.
The revamped coalition is expected to be launched in January and is likely to include other high street names, according to insiders.
It is said to be coordinating its plans with the British Retail Consortium (BRC), the industry’s leading trade body.
In total, the RJA’s members employ more than a million people across Britain and account for a significant proportion of the stores with rateable values in excess of the proposed threshold.
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One source close to the group’s plans said it intended to highlight that the higher business rates multiplier contradicted Labour’s manifesto pledge to “[level] the playing field between high street and online retailers”.
These included a £2.3bn hit from changes to employers’ national insurance, £2.73bn from an increase in the national living wage and a £2bn packaging levy bill.
Stuart Machin, the M&S chief executive, and Andrew Higginson, the JD Sports Fashion and BRC chair, have been among those publicly critical of the new measures.
Tesco alone faces having to pay £1bn in extra employer national insurance contributions during this parliament.
This week, ShoeZone, a footwear chain, said it would close 20 shops as a result of poor trading and the increased costs announced in the budget.
The hospitality industry has also highlighted the possibility of price hikes and job losses after the chancellor delivered her statement on 30 October.
In response to the growing business backlash, Ms Reeves told the CBI’s annual conference last month that she was “not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes”.
The RJA was initially put together in 2022 by WPI Strategy, a London-based public affairs firm.
None of the members of the RJA contacted by Sky News this weekend would comment.
The UK’s retail sales recovery was smaller than expected in the key Christmas shopping month of November, official figures show.
Retail sales rose just 0.2% last month despite discounting events in the run-up to Black Friday. It followed a 0.7% fall seen in October, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Sales growth of 0.5% had been forecast by economists.
Behind the fall was a steep drop in clothing sales, which fell 2.6% to the lowest level since the COVID lockdown month of January 2022.
Sales have still not recovered to levels before the pandemic. Compared with February 2020, volumes are down 1.6%.
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It was economic rather than weather factors behind this as retailers told the ONS they faced tough trading conditions.
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Christmas more expensive this year?
For the first time in three months, however, there was a boost in food store sales, and supermarkets in particular. It was also a good month for household goods retailers, most notably furniture shops, the ONS said.
Clothes became more expensive in November, data from earlier this week demonstrated, and it was these price rises that contributed to overall inflation rising again – topping 2.6%.
Retail sales figures are of significance as the data measures household consumption, the largest expenditure across the UK economy.
The data can also help track how consumers feel about their finances and the economy more broadly.
Industry body the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said higher energy bills and low consumer sentiment impacted spending.
The BRC’s director of insight Kris Hamer said it was a “shaky” start to the festive season.
Shoppers were holding off on purchases until full Black Friday offers kicked in, he added.
The period in question covers discounting coming up to Black Friday but not the actual Friday itself as the ONS examined the four weeks from 27 October to 23 November.
UK car manufacturing fell again in November, the ninth month of decline in a row, according to industry data.
A total of 64,216 cars were produced in UK factories last month, 27,711 fewer than in November last year – a 30% drop, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
The figures also mean it was the worst November for UK car production since 1980, when 62,728 vehicles were produced.
It comes after the government launched a review into its electric car mandate – a system of financial penalties levied against car makers if zero-emission vehicles make up less than 22% of all sales to encourage electric vehicle (EV) production.
The mandate will rise to 80% of all sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
But car manufacturers have long expressed unhappiness with the target, saying the consumer demand is not there and EVs are costlier to produce.
Separate figures from the SMMT suggested a £5.8bn hit to the sector from the EV mandate.
Despite the criticism, EV sales goals were surpassed last month. One in every four new cars sold was an electric vehicle.
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