Blueprint for ending UK’s economic stagnation has a glaring omission

Published

2 years ago

December 4, 2023

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If you want a sensible document with some interesting and well-reasoned ideas for what we ought to do about the UK economy (and some brilliant charts), you could hardly do better than read the Resolution Foundation’s book/report on the topic, Ending Stagnation.

It’s a thick tome with plenty of analysis about the problems facing this country – low earnings growth, weak productivity, high inequality and so on – and a bit about our strengths too. And it synthesises much of what you might call the “Whitehall view” about what needs to be done to try to kickstart growth in the economy.

So it suggests raising benefits, lifting public investment, removing some of the countless allowances which allow people to avoid taxes, improving statutory sick pay and trying to lift cities outside London.

It’s a useful checklist, even if much of it will be vaguely familiar to anyone who has followed the economic debate in recent years.

Weak productivity is one of Britain’s biggest problems. If our bang-for-buck (which is ultimately what productivity is a measure of) had been stronger in recent years, then a lot of issues we’re currently plagued with – from high public debt to weak income growth – could have been solved.

And while there’s a good chance this document becomes a sort of Bible, which both Labour and the Conservative Party borrow from, as they seek to construct their policy manifestos ahead of the coming general election – it is not for nothing that both Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer both appeared at the launch event.

Both parties want this election to be fought on economic grounds.

Both parties want the British public to know that they want to increase Britain’s economic growth rate. Indeed, Starmer has even pledged that under Labour, UK per capita growth will outpace the rest of the G7 in the coming years – an ambitious promise, though it’s unclear how he or anyone could achieve it.

And that’s because while there are some obvious ingredients for economic growth, it’s a fiendishly difficult thing to generate, or for that matter to understand.

Reservations about the report

Economists still debate why the US has a perennial productivity advantage over so many of its rich world counterparts. Is it tax policy? Does it come down to investment incentives, to the existence of strong markets, or to something else completely unquantifiable? The short answer is no-one knows for sure.

But if you’re after a decent handbook of some of the most plausible policies for boosting that growth rate, you could hardly do better than the Resolution Foundation’s tome – with a few reservations.

The first is that, this being a left-leaning thinktank, the solutions do incline towards higher taxes. Others will have different views.

Second, while the report suggests government should be investing more and mentions the need for more housebuilding in passing, it could put even more emphasis on the desperate deterioration of Britain’s physical infrastructure.

Third, and most problematic, one of the most important of all economic factors barely crops up in the report at all: energy. Britain has some of the developed world’s highest energy costs.

This is at least part of the explanation for weak productivity and investment in recent years. Bringing down wholesale energy costs would make an enormous difference in boosting activity in this country – not just for manufacturing firms but also for everyone else.

This comes back to something else. It’s tempting, since Britain’s stagnation began at the time of the financial crisis, to assume that it must all be related to what happened in the square mile back in 2008. And this is almost certainly a large part of the explanation.

However, something else happened around then too: Britain went from being a net oil and gas exporter, able to enjoy a large and constant stream of public and private revenues from the North Sea, to being a net importer. It’s going way too far to blame this watershed shift for everything, but it’s equally odd that it isn’t mentioned even once in the Resolution Foundation document.

It all matters, even the boring stuff we mostly ignore. This new document is a fascinating blueprint on some of the things we could do to get this country going again.

But it’s just the beginning of the conversation – not the end of it.

Business

Hundreds of jobs at risk as River Island takes axe to store base

Published

17 hours ago

June 20, 2025

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Hundreds of jobs at risk as River Island takes axe to store base

Hundreds more high street jobs are being put at risk as part of a sweeping overhaul of the family-owned fashion retailer River Island.

Sky News has learnt that the clothing chain, which trades from about 230 stores, is proposing to close 33 shops in a restructuring plan which will be put to creditors in August.

The fate of a further 70 stores is dependent upon agreements being reached with landlords to slash rent payments.

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Confirmation of the plans comes less than a month after Sky News revealed that the company, which was founded in 1948 by Bernard Lewis, was working with PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on a restructuring plan.

In a statement issued on Friday, Ben Lewis, River Island’s chief executive, said: “River Island is a much-loved retailer, with a decades-long history on the British high street.

“However, the well-documented migration of shoppers from the high street to online has left the business with a large portfolio of stores that is no longer aligned to our customers’ needs.

“The sharp rise in the cost of doing business over the last few years has only added to the financial burden.

“We have a clear strategy to transform the business to ensure its long-term viability.

“Recent improvements in our fashion offer and in-store shopping experience are already showing very positive results, but it is only with a restructuring plan that we will be able to see this strategy through and secure River Island’s future as a profitable retail business.

“We regret any job losses as a result of store closures, and we will try to keep these to a minimum.”

The company declined to comment on how many jobs would be put at risk by the initial 33 shop closures, or on the scale of the rent cuts being sought during talks with landlords.

In total, it is understood to employ about 5,500 people.

Sources said that new funding will be injected into River Island if the restructuring plan is approved in August.

Previously named Lewis and Chelsea Girl, the business, it adopting its current brand during the 1980s.

Accounts for River Island Clothing Co for the 52 weeks ended 30 December 2023 show the company made a £33.2m pre-tax loss.

Turnover during the year fell by more than 19% to £578.1m.

A restructuring plan is a court-supervised process which enables companies facing financial difficulties to compromise creditors such as landlords in order to avoid insolvency proceedings.

An identical process is being used to close scores of Poundland shops and slash rents at hundreds more.

In its latest accounts at Companies House, River Island Holdings Limited warned of a multitude of financial and operational risks to its business.

“The market for retailing of fashion clothing is fast changing with customer preferences for more diverse, convenient and speedier shopping journeys and with increasing competition especially in the digital space,” it said.

“The key business risks for the group are the pressures of a highly competitive and changing retail environment combined with increased economic uncertainty.

“A number of geopolitical events have resulted in continuing supply chain disruption as well as energy, labour and food price increases, driving inflation and interest rates higher and resulting in weaker disposable income and lower consumer confidence.”

Retailers have complained bitterly about the impact of tax changes announced by Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in last autumn’s Budget.

Since then, a cluster of well-known chains, including Lakeland and The Original Factory Shop, have been forced to seek new owners.

Business

Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be ‘brought to account’

Published

22 hours ago

June 20, 2025

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Post Office Capture scandal: Sir Alan Bates calls for those responsible for wrongful convictions to be 'brought to account'

Sir Alan Bates has called for those responsible for the wrongful convictions of sub postmasters in the Capture IT scandal to be “brought to account”.

It comes after Sky News unearthed a report showing Post Office lawyers knew of faults in the software nearly three decades ago.

The documents, found in a garage by a retired computer expert, describe the Capture system as “an accident waiting to happen”.

Sir Alan said the Sky News investigation showed “yet another failure of government oversight; another failure of the Post Office board to ensure [the] Post Office recruited senior people competent of bringing in IT systems” and management that was “out of touch with what was going on within its organisation”.

The unearthed Capture report was commissioned by the defence team for sub postmistress Patricia Owen and served on the Post Office in 1998 at her trial.

It described the software as “quite capable of producing absurd gibberish” and concluded “reasonable doubt” existed as to “whether any criminal offence” had taken place.

Ms Owen was found guilty of stealing from her branch and given a suspended prison sentence.

She died in 2003 and her family had always believed the computer expert, who was due to give evidence on the report, “never turned up”.

Adrian Montagu reached out after seeing a Sky News report earlier this year and said he was actually stood down by the defending barrister with “no reason given”.

The barrister said he had no recollection of the case.

Victims and their lawyers hope the newly found “damning” expert report, which may never have been seen by a jury, could help overturn Capture convictions.

‘These people have to be brought to account’

Sir Alan, the leading campaigner for victims of the Horizon Post Office scandal, said while “no programme is bug free, why [was the] Post Office allowed to transfer the financial risk from these bugs on to a third party ie the sub postmaster, and why did its lawyers continue with prosecutions seemingly knowing of these system bugs?”

He continued: “Whether it was incompetence or corporate malice, these people have to be brought to account for their actions, be it for Capture or Horizon.”

More than 100 victims have come forward

More than 100 victims, including those who were not convicted but who were affected by the faulty software, have so far come forward.

Capture was used in 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999, just before Horizon was introduced – which saw hundreds wrongfully convicted.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the body responsible for investigating potential miscarriages of justice, is currently looking at a number of Capture convictions.

A CCRC spokesperson told Sky News: “We have received applications regarding 29 convictions which pre-date Horizon.
25 of these applications are being actively investigated by case review managers, and two more recent applications are in the preparatory stage and will be assigned to case review managers before the end of June.

“We have issued notices under s.17 of the Criminal Appeal Act 1995 to Post Office Ltd requiring them to produce all material relating to the applications received.

“To date, POL have provided some material in relation to 17 of the cases and confirmed that they hold no material in relation to another 5. The CCRC is awaiting a response from POL in relation to 6 cases.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Business and Trade said: “Postmasters negatively affected by Capture endured immeasurable suffering. We continue to listen to those who have been sharing their stories on the Capture system, and have taken their thoughts on board when designing the Capture Redress Scheme.”

Business

Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

Published

1 day ago

June 19, 2025

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Government considering measure to slash industrial energy prices

Ministers are considering a commitment to cut soaring industrial energy prices for British companies to the same level enjoyed by competitors in France and Germany as part of its industrial strategy.

Sky News understands proposals to make energy prices more competitive are at the heart of final discussions between the Department for Business and Trade and the Treasury ahead of the publication of its industrial strategy on Monday.

Industrial electricity prices in the UK are the highest in the G7 and 46% above the median for the 32 member states of the International Energy Agency, which account for 75% of global demand.

In 2023, British businesses paid £258 per megawatt-hour for electricity compared to £178 in France and £177 in Germany, according to IEA data. Matching those prices will require a reduction of around 27% at a cost of several billion pounds.

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Earlier this month, automotive giant Nissan said UK energy prices make its Sunderland plant its most expensive in the world.

Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds is understood to be sympathetic to business concerns, and chancellor Rachel Reeves told the CBI’s annual dinner the issue of energy prices “is a question we know we need to answer”.

Extending relief

While around 350 companies in energy-intensive industries, including steel, ceramics and cement, enjoy some relief from prices through the energy supercharger scheme, which refunds 60% of network charges and is expected to rise to 90%, there is currently no support for manufacturers.

Sky News understands ministers are considering introducing a similar scheme to support the 200,000 manufacturing businesses in the UK.

Cutting network costs entirely could save more than 20% from electricity prices.

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The mechanism for delivering support is expected to require consultation before being introduced to ensure only businesses for whom energy is a central cost would benefit. This could be based on the proportion of outgoings spent on energy bills.

It is not clear how the scheme would be funded, but the existing industrial supercharger is paid for by a levy on energy suppliers that is ultimately passed on to customers.

A central demand

Bringing down prices, particularly for electricity, has been the central demand of business and industry groups, with Make UK warning high prices are rendering businesses uncompetitive and risk “deindustrialising” the UK.

The primary driver of high electricity costs in the UK is wholesale gas, which both underpins the grid and sets the price in the market, even in periods when renewables provide the majority of supply.

Why are costs so high?

Wholesale prices account for around 39% of bills, with operating costs and network charges – the cost of using and maintaining the grid – making up another 25%, and VAT 20%.

Business groups, including the manufacturers group Make UK, have called for a reduction in those additional charges, as well as the so-called policy costs that make up the final 16% of bills.

These are made up of levies and charges introduced by successive governments to encourage and underwrite the construction of renewable sources of power.

Make UK estimate that shifting policy costs into general taxation would cost around £3.8bn, but pay for itself over time in increased growth.

Government sources confirmed that energy prices are a central issue that the industrial strategy will address, but said no final policy decisions have been agreed.

The industrial strategy, which is delayed from its scheduled publication earlier this month, will set out the government’s plans to support eight sectors identified as having high-growth potential, including advanced manufacturing, life sciences, defence and creative industries.