Blueprint for ending UK’s economic stagnation has a glaring omission
If you want a sensible document with some interesting and well-reasoned ideas for what we ought to do about the UK economy (and some brilliant charts), you could hardly do better than read the Resolution Foundation’s book/report on the topic, Ending Stagnation.
It’s a thick tome with plenty of analysis about the problems facing this country – low earnings growth, weak productivity, high inequality and so on – and a bit about our strengths too. And it synthesises much of what you might call the “Whitehall view” about what needs to be done to try to kickstart growth in the economy.
So it suggests raising benefits, lifting public investment, removing some of the countless allowances which allow people to avoid taxes, improving statutory sick pay and trying to lift cities outside London.
It’s a useful checklist, even if much of it will be vaguely familiar to anyone who has followed the economic debate in recent years.
Weak productivity is one of Britain’s biggest problems. If our bang-for-buck (which is ultimately what productivity is a measure of) had been stronger in recent years, then a lot of issues we’re currently plagued with – from high public debt to weak income growth – could have been solved.
And while there’s a good chance this document becomes a sort of Bible, which both Labour and the Conservative Party borrow from, as they seek to construct their policy manifestos ahead of the coming general election – it is not for nothing that both Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer both appeared at the launch event.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt speaks at the Resolution Foundation conference in London
Both parties want this election to be fought on economic grounds.
Both parties want the British public to know that they want to increase Britain’s economic growth rate. Indeed, Starmer has even pledged that under Labour, UK per capita growth will outpace the rest of the G7 in the coming years – an ambitious promise, though it’s unclear how he or anyone could achieve it.
And that’s because while there are some obvious ingredients for economic growth, it’s a fiendishly difficult thing to generate, or for that matter to understand.
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Reservations about the report
Economists still debate why the US has a perennial productivity advantage over so many of its rich world counterparts. Is it tax policy? Does it come down to investment incentives, to the existence of strong markets, or to something else completely unquantifiable? The short answer is no-one knows for sure.
But if you’re after a decent handbook of some of the most plausible policies for boosting that growth rate, you could hardly do better than the Resolution Foundation’s tome – with a few reservations.
The first is that, this being a left-leaning thinktank, the solutions do incline towards higher taxes. Others will have different views.
Second, while the report suggests government should be investing more and mentions the need for more housebuilding in passing, it could put even more emphasis on the desperate deterioration of Britain’s physical infrastructure.
Third, and most problematic, one of the most important of all economic factors barely crops up in the report at all: energy. Britain has some of the developed world’s highest energy costs.
This is at least part of the explanation for weak productivity and investment in recent years. Bringing down wholesale energy costs would make an enormous difference in boosting activity in this country – not just for manufacturing firms but also for everyone else.
This comes back to something else. It’s tempting, since Britain’s stagnation began at the time of the financial crisis, to assume that it must all be related to what happened in the square mile back in 2008. And this is almost certainly a large part of the explanation.
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However, something else happened around then too: Britain went from being a net oil and gas exporter, able to enjoy a large and constant stream of public and private revenues from the North Sea, to being a net importer. It’s going way too far to blame this watershed shift for everything, but it’s equally odd that it isn’t mentioned even once in the Resolution Foundation document.
It all matters, even the boring stuff we mostly ignore. This new document is a fascinating blueprint on some of the things we could do to get this country going again.
But it’s just the beginning of the conversation – not the end of it.
Billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe has told Sky News that Britain is ready for a change of government after scolding the Conservatives over their handling of the economy and immigration after Brexit.
While insisting his petrochemicals conglomerate INEOS is apolitical, Sir Jim backed Brexit and spent last weekend with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at Manchester United – the football club he now runs as minority owner.
“I’m sure Keir will do a very good job at running the country – I have no questions about that,” Sir Jim said in an exclusive interview.
“There’s no question that the Conservatives have had a good run,” he added. “I think most of the country probably feels it’s time for a change. And I sort of get that, really.”
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Sir Jim was a prominent backer of leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum but now has issues with how Brexit was delivered by Tory prime ministers.
“Brexit sort of unfortunately didn’t turn out as people anticipated because… Brexit was largely about immigration,” Sir Jim said.
“That was the biggest component of that vote. People were getting fed up with the influx of the city of Southampton coming in every year. I think last year it was two times Southampton.
“I mean, no small island like the UK could cope with vast numbers of people coming into the UK.
“I mean, it just overburdens the National Health Service, the traffic service, the police, everybody.
“The country was designed for 55 or 60 million people and we’ve got 70 million people and all the services break down as a consequence.
“That’s what Brexit was all about and nobody’s implemented that. They just keep talking about it. But nothing’s been done, which is why I think we’ll finish up with the change of government.”
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UK needs to get ‘sharper on the business front’
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated an election is due this year but Monaco-based Sir Jim is unimpressed by the Conservatives’ handling of the economy.
“The UK does need to get a bit sharper on the business front,” he said. “I think the biggest objective for the government is to create growth in the economy.
“There’s two parts of the economy, there’s the services side of the economy and there’s the manufacturing side. And the manufacturing, unfortunately, has been sliding away now for the last 25 years.
“We were very similar in scale to Germany probably 25 years ago.
“But today we’re just a fraction of where Germany is and I think that isn’t healthy for the British economy… particularly when you think the north of England is very manufacturing based, and that talks to things like energy competitiveness, it talks to things like, why do you put an immensely high tax on the North Sea?
“That just disincentivises people from finding hydrocarbons in the North Sea, in energy.
“And what we need is competitive energy. So I mean, in America, in the energy world, in the oil and gas world, they just apply a corporation tax to the oil and gas companies, which is about 30%. And in the UK we’ve got this tax of 75% because we want to kill off the oil and gas companies.
“But if we don’t have competitive energy, we’re not going to have a healthy manufacturing industry. And that just makes no sense to me at all. No.”
‘We’re apolitical’
Asked about INEOS donating to Labour, Sir Jim replied: “We’re apolitical, INEOS.
“We just want a successful manufacturing sector in the UK and we’ve talked to the government about that. It’s pretty clear about our views.”
Sir Jim was keener to talk about the economy and politics than his role at struggling Manchester United, which he bought a 27.7% stake in from the American Glazer family in February – giving him an even higher business profile.
Old Trafford stadium in Manchester. Pic: AP
Push for stadium of the North
He is continuing to push for public funds to regenerate Old Trafford and the surrounding areas despite no apparent political support being forthcoming. Sir Keir was hosted at the stadium for a Premier League match last weekend just as heavy rain exposed the fragility of the ageing venue.
“There’s a very good case, in my view, for having a stadium of the North, which would serve the northern part of the country in that arena of football,” Sir Jim said. “If you look at the number of Champions League the North West has won, it’s 10. London has won two.
“And yet everybody from the North has to get down to London to watch a big football match. And there should be one [a large stadium] in the North, in my view.
“But it’s also important for the southern side of Manchester, you know, to regenerate.
“It’s the sort of second capital of the country where the Industrial Revolution began.
“But if you have a regeneration project, you need a nucleus or a regeneration project and having that world-class stadium there, I think would provide the impetus to regenerate that region.”
Marks & Spencer’s website and app has not been working for several hours, with a message telling shoppers “you can’t shop with us right now”.
“We’re working hard to be back online as soon as possible,” it adds.
All the menus and images have disappeared apart from one showing a model in a green jacket.
Customers trying to use the app got the message: “Sorry you can’t shop through the app right now. We’re busy making some planned changes, but will be back soon.”
The site is understood to have been down for several hours.
Replying to one customer on X, the retailer said: “We’re experiencing some technical issues but we are working on it.”
M&S is the latest high street name to have technical issues – last month some Sainsbury’s shoppers had problems with their online orders.
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The outage comes a few days before M&S is expected to reveal a big jump in annual profits.
It’s been a successful year for the brand, with strong sales across the business following a turnaround plan that has included store closures and cost cutting.
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