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The US economy is in for a sharp slowdown in 2024 as a closely watched survey of top economists foresees stubbornly high inflation, a rise in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession.

A slew of headwinds will slow the current quarter’s Gross Domestic Product — a comprehensive measure of economic activity and performance — to a pace of 1.2%, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ latest Outlook Survey released on Monday.

That’s versus a 5.2% annualized rate during the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported — the fastest rate of expansion since the end of 2021. Adjusted for inflation, real GDP increased 2.1%.

Panelists foresee the GDP slowing even further, to 1%, between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, NABE President and Morgan Stanley chief economist Ellen Zentner said in the survey, which was earlier reported on by Fox Business.

On the heels of the dismal data, of the 30-plus economists surveyed, one in four said they’re now forecasting a recession, assigning a probability of at least 50%, NABE reported.

The last time the US experienced a financial crisis was in 2008. At the time, of the economic downturn, the federal funds rate was 5.25% while inflation rose 4.1% on an annual basis, per the Consumer Price Index.

Now, inflation isn’t slowing as quickly as the Fed has hoped, and remains well above central bankers’ goal at 3.2%. That’s a trend that will likely remain entrenched during the coming year, according to the survey.

“Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation — excluding food and energy costs — but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Boards 2% target before year-end 2024,” said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month released a weaker-than-expected October jobs report, when the economy only added 150,000 positions — as the unemployment rate came in above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast, at 3.9%.

When November job data comes out on Friday, employers are expected to have added 180,000 positions, while unemployment is expected to hold at 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow forecasting model attributed the impending economic slowdown to a decline in construction spending and manufacturing as labor costs have surged and productivity has waned.

In New York, construction has been hindered by the precipitous 421a property tax exemption, which was given to real estate developers building new multifamily residential housing buildings in New York City before it expired in June 2022.

A lack of 421a, coupled with high borrowing rates, have pumped the brakes on new development.

An economic slowdown is also likely on the horizon as Taylor Swift’s blockbuster concert, “Eras Tour,” leaves the US.

Since Swift’s three-hour show kicked off in March in Arizona, loyal Swifties have shelled out so much for tickets and hotel rooms that the show has spurred growth in the economy of each of the cities its stopped at.

In Pittsburgh, an estimated 24,000 hotel rooms were booked at premium prices by fans making the Eras Tour pilgrimage back in June for the three-hour set, while tourists drummed up more traffic than usual for local businesses, from parking garages to restaurants.

While Swift’s concert continues its 100-plus-city trot around the globe, Beyonce’s “Renaissance” concert has also drawn a slew of fanfare as its embarked on a 56-stop world tour.

The economy will surely miss the so-called “Taylor Swift effect” after the 33-year-old songstress returns stateside to take her final Eras Tour bow in Indianapolis, Ind., in November 2024.

Beyonce, meanwhile, concluded her Renaissance tour on Oct. 1 in Kansas City, Mo.

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Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney named prime minister of Canada – succeeding Justin Trudeau

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Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney named prime minister of Canada - succeeding Justin Trudeau

Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney has been named Canadian prime minister after winning the Liberal Party leadership race in a landslide victory.

Mr Carney, who also used to be the head of Canada’s central bank, emerged as the frontrunner in the contest as the country deals with the impact of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

He ended up winning 85.9% of the vote.

During his victory speech, he told the crowd: “Donald Trump, as we know, has put unjustified tariffs on what we build, on what we sell and how we make a living.

“He’s attacking Canadian families, workers and businesses and we cannot let him succeed and we won’t.”

Mr Carney said Canada would keep retaliatory tariffs in place until “the Americans show us respect”.

Mr Trump’s tariffs against Canada and his talk of making the country America’s 51st state have infuriated Canadians.

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The American national anthem has been repeatedly booed at NHL and NBA games.

“Think about it. If they succeeded, they would destroy our way of life… America is a melting pot. Canada is a mosaic,” Mr Carney added.

“America is not Canada. Canada will never ever be part of America in any way, shape or form.”

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‘You can’t take our country or our game’

The 59-year-old will replace Justin Trudeau, who has served as prime minister since 2015.

Mr Trudeau announced he was stepping down in January after facing calls to quit from a chorus of his own MPs.

The 53-year-old’s popularity had declined as food and house prices rose.

Mr Carney will now have to decide when to call a general election in Canada – which must take place on or before 20 October.

In 2013, he became the first non-UK citizen to run the Bank of England since it was founded in 1694.

His appointment was popular in Britain after Canada recovered from the 2008 financial crisis faster than many other countries.

Read more:
Trudeau steps down with his popularity in shreds
Canadian PM criticises Trump over tariffs

During leadership debates, Mr Carney argued he was the only person prepared to handle Trump.

“I know how to manage crises,” he said.

“In a situation like this, you need experience in terms of crisis management, you need negotiating skills.”

The surge in Canadian nationalism has bolstered the Liberal Party’s chances in a parliamentary election.

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Donald Trump says Ukraine ‘may not survive’ war against Russia even if US support continues

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Donald Trump says Ukraine 'may not survive' war against Russia even if US support continues

US President Donald Trump has suggested Ukraine “may not survive” the war against Russia even if American support continued.

In an interview with Fox News channel’s ‘Sunday Morning Futures’, Mr Trump was asked about his controversial decision to pause support for Kyiv as it fends off Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Mr Trump, who had a disastrous meeting with Mr Zelenskyy at the White House last week, was asked about a warning from Polish President Andrzej Duda “that without American support, Ukraine will not survive”.

Asked if he was “comfortable” with that outcome, the US president said: “Well, it may not survive anyway.

“But we have some weaknesses with Russia. You know, it takes two,” Mr Trump added.

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Donald Trump. File Pic: Reuters

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It comes as Mr Zelenskyy will visit Saudi Arabia for a Monday meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while Ukrainian diplomatic and military representatives will meet with a US delegation on Tuesday.

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Mr Trump’s latest remarks come amid global concern over the souring relationship between Ukraine and the US, which alongside the EU has been Kyiv’s main backer in its defence against Russia’s three-year land, air and sea invasion.

The US paused military aid and the sharing of intelligence with Ukraine this month after a meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy on 28 February descended into acrimony in front of the world’s media.

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Mr Trump ordered the pause as he attempts to put pressure on Mr Zelenskyy to negotiate a ceasefire deal with Russia.

Mr Trump has privately made it clear to aides that a signed minerals deal between Washington and Kyiv will not be enough to restart aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Sky News’ US partner network NBC reported earlier on Sunday.

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How are Americans feeling after nearly 50 days of Trump?

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Rating Donald Trump’s second term so far

‘Trump bump’ turns to a Trump slump

The 78-year-old president is said to want the deal signed, but also wants to see a change in Mr Zelenskyy’s attitude towards peace talks.

Officials have told NBC News that Mr Trump also wants Mr Zelenskyy to make some movement towards holding elections in Ukraine and possibly stepping down as his country’s leader.

Mr Zelenskyy said in a recent interview he would be ready to step down as Ukraine’s president if it meant his country would become a NATO member and find peace.

That came after he was branded a “dictator” by Mr Trump as Ukraine had not held fresh elections – despite laws prohibiting it during wartime.

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Donald Trump says Ukraine ‘may not survive’ war against Russia even if US support continues

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Donald Trump says Ukraine 'may not survive' war against Russia even if US support continues

US President Donald Trump has suggested Ukraine “may not survive” the war against Russia even if American support continued.

In an interview with Fox News channel’s ‘Sunday Morning Futures’, Mr Trump was asked about his controversial decision to pause support for Kyiv as it fends off Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Mr Trump, who had a disastrous meeting with Mr Zelenskyy at the White House last week, was asked about a warning from Polish President Andrzej Duda “that without American support, Ukraine will not survive”.

Asked if he was “comfortable” with that outcome, the US president said: “Well, it may not survive anyway.

“But we have some weaknesses with Russia. You know, it takes two,” Mr Trump added.

Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump. File Pic: Reuters

Follow the latest updates on Donald Trump

It comes as Mr Zelenskyy will visit Saudi Arabia for a Monday meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while Ukrainian diplomatic and military representatives will meet with a US delegation on Tuesday.

More on Donald Trump

Mr Trump’s latest remarks come amid global concern over the souring relationship between Ukraine and the US, which alongside the EU has been Kyiv’s main backer in its defence against Russia’s three-year land, air and sea invasion.

The US paused military aid and the sharing of intelligence with Ukraine this month after a meeting between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy on 28 February descended into acrimony in front of the world’s media.

👉 Follow Trump 100 on your podcast app 👈

Mr Trump ordered the pause as he attempts to put pressure on Mr Zelenskyy to negotiate a ceasefire deal with Russia.

Mr Trump has privately made it clear to aides that a signed minerals deal between Washington and Kyiv will not be enough to restart aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, Sky News’ US partner network NBC reported earlier on Sunday.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

How are Americans feeling after nearly 50 days of Trump?

Read more:
Rating Donald Trump’s second term so far

‘Trump bump’ turns to a Trump slump

The 78-year-old president is said to want the deal signed, but also wants to see a change in Mr Zelenskyy’s attitude towards peace talks.

Officials have told NBC News that Mr Trump also wants Mr Zelenskyy to make some movement towards holding elections in Ukraine and possibly stepping down as his country’s leader.

Mr Zelenskyy said in a recent interview he would be ready to step down as Ukraine’s president if it meant his country would become a NATO member and find peace.

That came after he was branded a “dictator” by Mr Trump as Ukraine had not held fresh elections – despite laws prohibiting it during wartime.

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