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JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon sounded the alarm on a possible recession, warning Wall Street to prepare for the threat of rising interest rates even as inflation slows.

A lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary. Be prepared, Dimon said at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York on Wednesday.

Interest rates may go up and that might lead to recession,” he added, according to CNN Business.

Dimon’s comments suggest that he doesn’t forecast a rate cut following the next two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 11 and 12.

Federal Reserve officials have unanimously decided to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at its current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, for the past two policy meetings with little indication that theyll slash interest rates moving forward.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell even reiterated during his closely watched speech during the International Monetary Funds policy panel in Washington, DC, earlier this month: “If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.”

Economists have been divided on what central bankers’ next move is — and whether it means the US economy is in for a soft landing, which will see it skirting a recession, or a hard landing.

“Im cautious about the economy,” Dimon said, per CNN.

The 67-year-old investment banking boss also noted that “inflation is hurting people,” and in a moment of positivity, pointed to the resilient labor market.

Representatives for Dimon at JPMorgan declined to comment.

Economists have cited October’s weaker-than-expected jobs report — when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 150,000 positions — as a signal that an interest rate cut is forthcoming.

The unemployment rate is now 3.9%, the agency said, above the Feds 3.8% year-end forecast.

Inflation has also trended weaker than central bankers estimates as Americans see some reprieve from the Feds aggressive tightening cycle, which began in March 2022, when rates were between 0.25% and 0.5%.

By June of last year, inflation peaked at 9.1% and rates have since increased at a pace not seen in 40 years.

The Fed hasn’t cut interest rates in over a year despite falling inflation, which slowed to 3.2% in October, according to the Consumer Price Index, which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services.

The figure marked a drop from Septembers 3.7% advance, though it remains well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which the US economy hasnt seen since 2012.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV last month, Dimon suggested that Americans are in for an interest-rate hike as steep as 1.5 percentage points, to a staggering 7%, which would mark the highest federal funds rate sine December 1990.

Dimon’s warnings of a recession echo those of hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, who said just this week that the Fed needs to slash interest rates as early as the first quarter in order to avert a real risk of a hard landing for the US economy.

Ackman told Bloomberg that if the Fed keeps rates around the 5.5% range while inflation trends below 3%, thats a very high real rate of interest.

Whats happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines, said the Pershing Square Capital Management founder.

I think theres a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesnt start cutting rates pretty soon, Ackman added, per Bloomberg, noting that hes seen evidence of a weakening economy.

Traders, however, arent fully pricing in a rate cut until the end of 2024s second quarter, in June, Bloomberg reported, citing swaps market data.

The chance of a cut happening in May is some 80%, the data showed.

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Nvidia CEO to Cramer: Synopsys deal is ‘culmination of everything I showed you’ over the years

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China poses ‘real national security threats’ to UK, Starmer warns

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China poses 'real national security threats' to UK, Starmer warns

Sir Keir Starmer has warned China poses “real national security threats to the United Kingdom”.

But the prime minister also described China as a “nation of immense scale, ambition and ingenuity” and a “defining force in technology, trade and global governance”.

“The UK needs a China policy that recognises this reality,” he added in a speech at the Guildhall in London.

“Instead, for years we have blown hot and cold.

“So our response will not be driven by fear, nor softened by illusion. It will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters
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Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters

Describing the absence of engagement with China – the world’s second-biggest economy – as “staggering” and “a dereliction of duty”, Sir Keir said: “This is not a question of balancing economic and security considerations. We don’t trade off security in one area, for a bit more economic access somewhere else.

“Protecting our security is non-negotiable – our first duty. But by taking tough steps to keep us secure, we enable ourselves to cooperate in other areas.”

Sir Keir’s remarks come after MPs and parliamentarians were warned last month of new attempts to spy on them by China.

And they follow the collapse of a prosecution of two people suspected of spying on behalf of China.

That case led to controversy over how the government under Labour responded to the Crown Prosecution Service’s requests for evidence.

Speech at the annual Lady Mayor's Banquet. Pic: Reuters
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Speech at the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet. Pic: Reuters

At the time, Sir Keir sought to blame the previous Conservative government for the issues, which centred on whether China could be designated an “enemy” under First World War-era legislation.

Meanwhile, Sky News understands the prime minister is set to approve plans for a controversial Chinese “super embassy” in central London.

Read more:
MI5 spying warning aims to send signal to China
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A final decision on the planning application for the former Royal Mint site near the Tower of London is due on 10 December, after numerous previous delays.

Sir Keir is also understood to be preparing for a likely visit to China in the new year.

Since he was elected last year, Sir Keir has been active on the world stage, trumpeting deals with the US, India and the EU and leading the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine.

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PM preparing for likely China visit

But he has also faced criticism from his opponents, who accuse him of spending too much time out of the UK attending international summits rather than focusing on domestic issues.

Sir Keir offered a defence of his approach, describing it as “the biggest shift in British foreign policy since Brexit” and “a decisive move to face outward again”.

While saying he would “always respect” the Brexit vote as a “fair, democratic expression”, he said the way the UK’s departure from the EU had been “sold and delivered” was “simply wrong”.

He said: “Wild promises were made to the British people and not fulfilled. We are still dealing with the consequences today.”

In his speech on Monday, the prime minister accused opposition politicians of offering a “corrosive, inward-looking attitude” on international affairs.

Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
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Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters

Taking aim at those who advocate leaving the European Convention on Human Rights or NATO, he said they offered “grievance rather than hope” and “a declinist vision of a lesser Britain”.

Sir Keir said: “Moreover, it is a fatal misreading of the moment, ducking the fundamental challenge posed by a chaotic world – a world which is more dangerous and unstable than at any point for a generation, where international events reach directly into our lives, whether we like it or not.”

He added: “In these times, we deliver for Britain by looking outward with renewed purpose and pride, not by shrinking back. In these times, internationalism is patriotism.”

Responding to the prime minister’s speech, shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel said: “From China’s continued flouting of economic rules to transnational repression of Hong Kongers in Britain, Starmer’s ‘reset’ with Beijing is a naive one-way street, which puts Britain at risk while Beijing gets everything it wants.

“Starmer continues to kowtow to China and is captivated by half-baked promises of trade.

“Coming just days after the latest Chinese plot to interfere in our democracy was exposed, his love letter to the Chinese Communist Party is a desperate ploy to generate economic growth following his budget of lies and is completely ill-judged.

“While China poses a clear threat to Britain, China continues to back Iran and Russia, and plots to undermine our institutions. Keir Starmer has become Beijing’s useful idiot in Britain.”

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OBR chief Richard Hughes resigns after budget leak investigation

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OBR chief Richard Hughes resigns after budget leak investigation

The chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has resigned after an investigation into the leak of last week’s budget criticised the watchdog’s leadership.

Richard Hughes stepped down following the publication of a report into the early release of Rachel Reeves’s fiscal event.

The OBR’s official forecast, which revealed the contents of the record-breaking tax rise budget, was accessed at 11.35am last Wednesday, about an hour before the chancellor stood up to deliver it.

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Rachel Reeves said she only found out about the leak when she was in the House of Commons
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Rachel Reeves said she only found out about the leak when she was in the House of Commons

In a letter to Ms Reeves and the chairwoman of the Commons Treasury Committee Dame Meg Hillier, Mr Hughes said he was quitting to allow the OBR to “quickly move on from this regrettable incident”.

He said he took “full responsibility” for “the shortcomings identified in the report”.

Mr Hughes said: “By implementing the recommendations in this report, I am certain the OBR can quickly regain and restore the confidence and esteem that it has earned through 15 years of rigorous, independent economic analysis.”

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An investigation ordered by the independent fiscal forecaster soon after the budget called the leak “the worst failure in the 15-year history of the OBR” and strongly criticised the watchdog’s processes for protecting sensitive information.

The probe found there was “nothing to suggest” the premature access was the result of “hostile cyber activity by foreign actors or cyber criminals, or of connivance by anyone working for the OBR”.

“Nor was it simply a matter of pressing the publication button on a locally managed website too early,” the report stated.

It concluded that “configuration errors” led to “a failure to ensure the protections which hide documents from public view immediately before publication were in place”.

“The ultimate responsibility for the circumstances in which this vulnerability occurred and was then exposed rests, over the years, with the leadership of the OBR,” the investigation said.

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Did Rachel Reeves mislead the nation with her budget?

Kemi Badenoch claimed that Ms Reeves was trying to use Mr Hughes as a “human shield”.

The Conservative leader said on social media: “More serious questions for the chancellor as she tries to make Richard Hughes her human shield.

“Her actions have turned this into a full blown political crisis for the government. If [Prime Minister] Keir Starmer had a backbone, he would have sacked Reeves long ago.”

Mr Hughes had been under pressure to explain the leak, which he immediately apologised for, and ordered the investigation.

It is also led by Professor David Miles and Tom Josephs, with Baroness Sarah Hogg and Dame Susan Rice as non-executive members.

There are 52 permanent staff, who are civil servants, with six of those working on the strategy, operations and communications team.

The report acknowledged the leak “changed the pattern of budget day to the chancellor’s disadvantage”.

Read more:
The budget’s key points
‘Of course I didn’t’ lie about budget forecasts – Reeves

OBR’s budget leak timeline on 26 November

5.10am: OBR website host emailed staff to confirm server modification to accommodate higher website traffic when the forecast is released

5.16am: A request was made to access the forecast document’s web address, but the PDF had not been uploaded yet. Between this time and 11.30am there were 44 unsuccessful requests to the URL from seven unique IP addresses

9am onwards: The web developer set up webpages in draft form in the content management system, creating IDS for all the downloads to be used across the website

11.02am: PDF documents were emailed to the web developer, including the forecast

11.03am-11.35am: The web developer began uploading documents to the draft area of the OBR website – which was understood by all involved not to be publicly accessible

11.35am: The first successful request to the document’s URL was made. This IP address had made 32 unsuccessful attempts at that URL that morning. There were 43 successful requests between this time and 12.07pm, from 32 unique IP addresses

11.41am: A Reuters news alert is the first evidence of the forecast being available publicly

11.43am: The OBR was first made aware by a non-Reuters journalist that Reuters was flashing forecast details. OBR staff, not knowing the URL was accessible even if known or guessed, found no evidence via webpages going live accidentally

11.50am onwards: Images and facts from the forecast began appearing widely online from many people

11.52am: Senior OBR and Treasury officials had a phone call to discuss the breach. Treasury staff made OBR staff aware of the URL

11.53am: OBR staff and the web developer tried to pull the PDF from the website, and to pull the entire website, but struggled to initially due to the website being overloaded with traffic

11.58am: A Reuters journalist emailed the OBR confirming they had published details and asked for a comment

12.07pm: The forecast PDF was renamed by the web developer, but it still appeared on the internet archive via search engines

12.08pm: The PDF was removed from the website’s content management system, taking it offline. The OBR chair and staff drafted a statement setting out what had happened and confirming its website was the source of the error

12.15pm: the statement was posted on the OBR’s website and on X

12.34pm: Chancellor’s budget statement began

1.38pm: The chancellor’s statement ended and the forecast and supporting documents were pushed live

It revealed the OBR’s spring statement 2025 was also accessed ahead of time, but said the likely explanation “is benign”.

And it said last week’s budget forecast document had multiple attempts to access it before it was inadvertently made accessible online.

The investigation partly blamed the Treasury and the Cabinet Office, as the OBR’s IT services were moved on to the Treasury’s shared systems in 2023 to “align more closely with Treasury security arrangements”, particularly around the sharing of sensitive budget information between the OBR and Treasury.

It said the Treasury should pay “greater attention” when setting the OBR’s budget, currently £6.4m, to the need for adequate support.

The investigation said there was pressure on the small team involved to ensure the full economic and fiscal outlook was published when the chancellor sat down after giving her budget, so a pre-publication “facility” was used.

But this commonly used device created a “potential vulnerability if not configured properly” and had not received the same amount of attention by the OBR as it had placed on security of communications with the Treasury “during the long period of run-up to the budget”.

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Starmer says he did not mislead the public

An outside web developer, who has helped the OBR team since it came into existence 15 years ago, assists the internal team and manages content and uploads at times of pressure, including the release of the budget forecast.

The report said the risks of this approach have increased over the years as technologies have developed and online threats have risen.

“With hindsight, it is clear that over the years this arrangement should have been regularly reexamined and assessed by the management of the OBR,” the report said.

It recommended the process for publishing forecasts should “immediately” be removed from the OBR’s locally managed website, which is a WordPress website, and published as part of a government website.

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