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Back in January 2022, Rishi Sunak made a promise to the British people and his party that he would stop small boat crossings.

Immigration – particularly illegal migration – was an issue that mattered to his voters and he insisted that he would be a prime minister of delivery.

Politics Live: Home secretary can’t guarantee migrants will be sent to Rwanda before next election

But the past few weeks have revealed the yawning gap between his rhetoric and reality as Mr Sunak now battles to keep his policy on track against the backdrop of a parliamentary party that looks like it could be about to go into freefall.

For he has ended the year more than 20 points behind in the polls, with net migration at a record high and his party on the precipice of a huge blowup over how he responds to the Supreme Court blocking plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

The Conservative Party hasn’t just broken its 2019 manifesto promise to get migration below 250,000 but totally destroyed it, with migration at an estimated 745,000 in the year to December 2022.

Now the prime minister is trying to get back on track with a three-part migration plan.

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On Monday, he published a five-point plan to get net migration back below 500,000 – the figure he inherited when he became prime minister last October. It’s still beyond the promise his predecessor Boris Johnson made to voters in 2019, but it is at least a start.

Far more thorny is how he might handle his most recent promise to voters – getting flights to Rwanda off the ground after the Supreme Court ruled last month that Rwanda was not a safe country.

On Tuesday the prime minister dispatched his new home secretary to Kigali on Tuesday to sign an update treaty which James Cleverly says should address the judges’ concerns.

But it is the third act, the emergency legislation to declare Rwanda safe and prevent further court challenges – that is the most politically significant for the prime minister who is struggling to maintain any authority over this party as the election gets closer but the gap between two parties in the polls remains desperately wide.

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Cleverly can’t guarantee that migrants will arrive in Rwanda from the UK before the next election

And now his MPs are in open revolt, with many fearful that he might fail to deliver on getting flights to Rwanda and another chunk fearful of what he might do to ensure they do. And both sides are now making their positions public as tensions over what Mr Sunak might do go into overdrive.

On the right of the party a trio of groupings – the European Research Group, the New Conservatives and the Commonsense Group – are teaming up tonight to discuss the policy and their position.

Perhaps up to 100 MPs in total, members I have spoken to are clear: the prime minister must include a controversial “notwithstanding” clause to disapply UK’s international and domestic human rights obligations when it comes to Rwanda policy.

Their cheerleaders are the former home secretary Suella Braverman and the immigration minister and once close ally of the prime minister, Robert Jenrick. One former cabinet minister told me on Tuesday that Mr Jenrick was now on resignation watch as he pushes for these measures against others in cabinet – Justice Secretary Alex Chalk and Attorney General Victoria Prentis – who are concerned about the UK withdrawing from international obligations.

“I think the PM has underestimated Rob on this. He thought that this stuff was all being pushed by Suella and Rob was just going along with it, and now he learns that it is actually what Rob believes in,” said the source, adding that Mr Jenrick could quit if the PM doesn’t embrace this option.

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And then this evening the One Nation caucus, which has a membership of 106 MPs, put out its own release arguing that the government can reduce migration without undermining the ECHR, and warned of trouble if the prime minister presses ahead.

“Leaving the ECHR..would be a mistake and doesn’t have public support,” said Stephen Hammond in a statement “Furthermore, moderates and mainstream Conservatives MPs may struggle to support the so-called full-fat deal.”

I think this is what you’d describe as being between a rock and hard place, with the prime minister destined to provoke a battle with a sizeable chunk of his backbenchers whatever he decides.

He will no doubt have front and centre of his mind his pledge to the British voting public when he decides how to proceed: how to make the legislation as watertight as he can in order to get those planes off to Rwanda by the spring.

The problem is, it’s not in his gift: his emergency laws must pass through both Houses of Parliament and then survive the inevitable legal wrangling that will follow.

When he made the pledge to stop small boats in January it seemed hard enough, and now he closes out the year with another promise he will not only struggle to keep but looks certain to further split his parliamentary party.

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DePIN needs thoughtful regulation — not lawsuits

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DePIN needs thoughtful regulation — not lawsuits

The new SEC leadership has an opportunity to set a positive precedent for crypto regulation by providing clear guidelines for DePIN projects.

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Richard Rice says Reform UK made ‘right judgement’ to suspend MP over allegations of bullying

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Richard Rice says Reform UK made 'right judgement' to suspend MP over allegations of bullying

Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice has said it was “right” to suspend the MP at the centre of bullying and threat allegations.

The party announced on Friday that they had reported Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe to police following allegations of bullying made by two women and threats made against Reform’s chair.

Many have questioned the timing of the announcement, as it came the day after Mr Lowe appeared to question Nigel Farage‘s leadership of the party. Mr Lowe has denied all the allegations.

Mr Tice was asked why the incidents have only come to light now, when complaint were made to police in December.

Rupert Lowe. File pic: PA
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Rupert Lowe denies the allegations against him. Pic: PA

He told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “There’s been a variety of instances and you have to make difficult judgements through the process.

“But of course it’s unfortunate. Of course it’s difficult.

“But there are these allegations of bullying by two separate female members of staff to the parliamentary authorities. Those clearly have to be dealt with in the proper, responsible way.”

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He added: “Rupert has been doing some great work on a variety of important issues, but ultimately, if you can’t work with someone, if the situation becomes impossible, which regrettably… then you have to say, this is not going to end well.

“And so we made the right judgement.”

Mr Tice also pointed out that if the party had brushed the incident “under the carpet” or tried to cover it up, then “everyone would’ve been raging”.

Read more:
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Reform UK row explained

Asked if the situation was “fishy” due to the timing of the party’s pronouncement, Mr Tice strongly disagreed.

“The reality is, behind the scenes, there have been a number of difficulties and challenges, and you get to the point where you say, enough’s enough,” he said.

Mr Farage wrote in the Telegraph overnight, saying the party “did our best to keep a lid on things but, in the end, containment strategies invariably fail”.

Mr Tice said an incident with party chair Zia Yusuf recently was the catalyst for taking action against Mr Lowe.

Mr Lowe has vehemently denied the claims against him, and said he was targeted for challenging the way the party was being run.

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Posting on social media just before Mr Tice’s interview, Mr Lowe said this included his outspoken stance on wanting to deport all illegal migrants.

He said: “I have been warned by those at the top of Reform about my position on deportations. As you likely know from reading my extensive output on the subject, I did not listen to a word said.

“We need deportations, and lots of them.

“I make no apologies for stating that.”

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UK has no plans for conscription – but future decisions will respond to ‘new reality’, says minister

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UK has no plans for conscription - but future decisions will respond to 'new reality', says minister

The UK is not considering introducing conscription to ready the country for a potential war – but decisions may be needed in the future to respond to the “new reality” we are now living in, a minister has told Sky News.

In an interview with Trevor Phillips, Latvian President Edgars Rinkeviks has urged European countries to follow his country’s lead and “absolutely” introduce conscription, conceding the continent is “quite weak” militarily.

Politics latest: Calls for European nations to reintroduce conscription

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‘Debate’ in Latvia about introducing conscription for women

Asked if the UK government is considering introducing the measure to boost the armed forces, Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden said it is important the UK does not find itself operating under “old assumptions” – and that it may be “decisions are needed in the future that respond to a new reality”.

He told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “We are not considering conscription, but of course we have announced a major increase in defence expenditure.

“We do have to recognise that the world has changed. The phrase ‘step up’ is used a lot. Europe does have to step up in terms of its own defence.

President Trump isn’t actually the first president to say that, but he said it more loudly and with more force than his predecessors – so, I think we have got to recognise that moment.”

‘UK cannot cling to old assumptions’

He added: “When the world is changing as fast as it is, it’s important that we don’t cling on to old assumptions.

“I think the prime minister has played a tremendous role in recent weeks in responding to that situation and explaining it to the public.

“That is why the decision on increasing defence expenditure was needed.

“It may be why other decisions are needed in the future that respond to a new reality, and that we don’t find ourselves caught operating under the same assumption as we used to in the past when the situation has changed.”

‘Battlefield is changing’

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP but has not set out when this will be achieved. Ministers say a defence review to be published this spring will set out a “roadmap” to it.

The number is much lower than the US president has demanded NATO members spend on defence, with Mr Trump saying they should all be spending 5% – an amount last seen during the Cold War.

Asked if the “new reality” involved a bigger army, Mr McFadden said ministers were waiting for the conclusion of the review.

But he added: “One thing is for sure, you would not spend money today on the same things as you would 10 years ago.

“The experience of the three years of the war in Ukraine has shown just how fast the battlefield is changing in terms of cyber, drones, the use of intelligence.”

History of conscription in UK

In the UK, military conscription has existed for two periods in modern times.

The first was from 1916 to 1920 following the outbreak of the First World War in 1914, due to the dwindling number of volunteers for military service.

Lord Kitchener’s campaign – promoted by his famous “Your Country Needs You” poster – had encouraged more than one million men to enlist by January 1915. But this was not enough.

In January 1916, after much debate, the Military Service Act was passed. This imposed conscription on all single men aged between 18 and 41, but exempted the medically unfit, clergymen, teachers and certain classes of industrial worker.

Conscientious objectors – men who objected to fighting on moral grounds – were also exempt, and were given civilian jobs or non-fighting roles at the front.

Conscription was not applied to Ireland because of the 1916 Easter Rising, although many Irishmen volunteered to fight.

A second Act passed in May 1916 extended conscription to married men, and in 1918, during the last months of the war, the age limit was raised to 51.

Conscription was extended until 1920 to allow the army to deal with continuing trouble spots in the Empire and parts of Europe.

In the run-up to the Second World War, plans for limited conscription applying to single men aged between 20 and 22 were given parliamentary approval in the Military Training Act in May 1939. This required men to undertake six months’ military training.

When Britain declared war against Germany on 3 September 1939, the National Service (Armed Forces) Act imposed conscription on all males aged between 18 and 41.

Those medically unfit were exempt, as were others in key industries and jobs such as baking, farming, medicine, and engineering, while conscientious objectors had to appear before a tribunal to argue their reasons for refusing to join up.

In December 1941, a second National Service Act was approved, making all unmarried women and all childless widows between the ages of 20 and 30 liable to call-up.

The last conscription term ended in 1960, although many soldiers chose to continue in the service beyond 1963.

The Conservatives’ first policy announcement of last year’s general election campaign was that the party would introduce a new form of mandatory National Service for 18-year-olds.

Asked if the Tories still stood by the plan which was in their manifesto, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “We are obviously not going to write our manifesto now, so I am not going to recommit to things in the previous manifesto.

“We’ll need to do the thinking properly. I am not going to speculate four years ahead of the election.

“I don’t think it was really exactly conscription that was being proposed, it was a National Citizen Service which is a bit different.

“The idea of getting younger people to do voluntary work and perform useful tasks is not a bad idea.”

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‘Right time’ to think about conscription

Last year, Britain’s former top NATO commander told Sky News it was time to “think the unthinkable” and consider introducing conscription.

General Sir Richard Sherriff, ex-deputy supreme allied commander of the military organisation, said: “I think we need to get over many of the cultural hang-ups and assumptions, and frankly think the unthinkable.

“I think we need to go further and look carefully at conscription.”

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