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Back in January 2022, Rishi Sunak made a promise to the British people and his party that he would stop small boat crossings.

Immigration – particularly illegal migration – was an issue that mattered to his voters and he insisted that he would be a prime minister of delivery.

Politics Live: Home secretary can’t guarantee migrants will be sent to Rwanda before next election

But the past few weeks have revealed the yawning gap between his rhetoric and reality as Mr Sunak now battles to keep his policy on track against the backdrop of a parliamentary party that looks like it could be about to go into freefall.

For he has ended the year more than 20 points behind in the polls, with net migration at a record high and his party on the precipice of a huge blowup over how he responds to the Supreme Court blocking plans to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

The Conservative Party hasn’t just broken its 2019 manifesto promise to get migration below 250,000 but totally destroyed it, with migration at an estimated 745,000 in the year to December 2022.

Now the prime minister is trying to get back on track with a three-part migration plan.

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On Monday, he published a five-point plan to get net migration back below 500,000 – the figure he inherited when he became prime minister last October. It’s still beyond the promise his predecessor Boris Johnson made to voters in 2019, but it is at least a start.

Far more thorny is how he might handle his most recent promise to voters – getting flights to Rwanda off the ground after the Supreme Court ruled last month that Rwanda was not a safe country.

On Tuesday the prime minister dispatched his new home secretary to Kigali on Tuesday to sign an update treaty which James Cleverly says should address the judges’ concerns.

But it is the third act, the emergency legislation to declare Rwanda safe and prevent further court challenges – that is the most politically significant for the prime minister who is struggling to maintain any authority over this party as the election gets closer but the gap between two parties in the polls remains desperately wide.

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Cleverly can’t guarantee that migrants will arrive in Rwanda from the UK before the next election

And now his MPs are in open revolt, with many fearful that he might fail to deliver on getting flights to Rwanda and another chunk fearful of what he might do to ensure they do. And both sides are now making their positions public as tensions over what Mr Sunak might do go into overdrive.

On the right of the party a trio of groupings – the European Research Group, the New Conservatives and the Commonsense Group – are teaming up tonight to discuss the policy and their position.

Perhaps up to 100 MPs in total, members I have spoken to are clear: the prime minister must include a controversial “notwithstanding” clause to disapply UK’s international and domestic human rights obligations when it comes to Rwanda policy.

Their cheerleaders are the former home secretary Suella Braverman and the immigration minister and once close ally of the prime minister, Robert Jenrick. One former cabinet minister told me on Tuesday that Mr Jenrick was now on resignation watch as he pushes for these measures against others in cabinet – Justice Secretary Alex Chalk and Attorney General Victoria Prentis – who are concerned about the UK withdrawing from international obligations.

“I think the PM has underestimated Rob on this. He thought that this stuff was all being pushed by Suella and Rob was just going along with it, and now he learns that it is actually what Rob believes in,” said the source, adding that Mr Jenrick could quit if the PM doesn’t embrace this option.

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And then this evening the One Nation caucus, which has a membership of 106 MPs, put out its own release arguing that the government can reduce migration without undermining the ECHR, and warned of trouble if the prime minister presses ahead.

“Leaving the ECHR..would be a mistake and doesn’t have public support,” said Stephen Hammond in a statement “Furthermore, moderates and mainstream Conservatives MPs may struggle to support the so-called full-fat deal.”

I think this is what you’d describe as being between a rock and hard place, with the prime minister destined to provoke a battle with a sizeable chunk of his backbenchers whatever he decides.

He will no doubt have front and centre of his mind his pledge to the British voting public when he decides how to proceed: how to make the legislation as watertight as he can in order to get those planes off to Rwanda by the spring.

The problem is, it’s not in his gift: his emergency laws must pass through both Houses of Parliament and then survive the inevitable legal wrangling that will follow.

When he made the pledge to stop small boats in January it seemed hard enough, and now he closes out the year with another promise he will not only struggle to keep but looks certain to further split his parliamentary party.

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Arthur Hayes says to trade new stablecoin IPOs like a ‘hot potato’

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Arthur Hayes says to trade new stablecoin IPOs like a ‘hot potato’

Arthur Hayes says to trade new stablecoin IPOs like a ‘hot potato’

The BitMEX founder warned that most new stablecoin issuers will be overvalued and likely fail due to locked distribution channels.

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Paradigm urges jury clarity in Roman Storm’s Tornado Cash case

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Paradigm urges jury clarity in Roman Storm’s Tornado Cash case

Paradigm urges jury clarity in Roman Storm’s Tornado Cash case

Paradigm’s chief legal officer and general counsel said if Roman Storm is found guilty, it could slow future software development in the crypto and fintech industries.

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Flawed data used repeatedly to dismiss claims about ‘Asian grooming gangs’, Baroness Casey finds

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Flawed data used repeatedly to dismiss claims about 'Asian grooming gangs', Baroness Casey finds

Flawed data has been used repeatedly to dismiss claims about “Asian grooming gangs”, Baroness Louise Casey has said in a new report, as she called for a new national inquiry.

The government has accepted her recommendations to introduce compulsory collection of ethnicity and nationality data for all suspects in grooming cases, and for a review of police records to launch new criminal investigations into historical child sexual exploitation cases.

Politics latest: Yvette Cooper reveals details of grooming gangs report

Baroness Louise Casey answering question from the London Assembly police and crime committee at City Hall in east London. Pic: PA
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Baroness Louise Casey carried out the review. Pic: PA

The crossbench peer has produced an audit of sexual abuse carried out by grooming gangs in England and Wales, after she was asked by the prime minister to review new and existing data, including the ethnicity and demographics of these gangs.

In her report, she has warned authorities that children need to be seen “as children” and called for a tightening of the laws around the age of consent so that any penetrative sexual activity with a child under 16 is classified as rape. This is “to reduce uncertainty which adults can exploit to avoid or reduce the punishments that should be imposed for their crimes”, she added.

Baroness Casey said: “Despite the age of consent being 16, we have found too many examples of child sexual exploitation criminal cases being dropped or downgraded from rape to lesser charges where a 13 to 15-year-old had been ‘in love with’ or ‘had consented to’ sex with the perpetrator.”

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Grooming gangs victim speaks out

The peer has called for a nationwide probe into the exploitation of children by gangs of men.

She has not recommended another over-arching inquiry of the kind conducted by Professor Alexis Jay, and suggests the national probe should be time-limited.

The national inquiry will direct local investigations and hold institutions to account for past failures.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the inquiry’s “purpose is to challenge what the audit describes as continued denial, resistance and legal wrangling among local agencies”.

On the issue of ethnicity, Baroness Casey said police data was not sufficient to draw conclusions as it had been “shied away from”, and is still not recorded for two-thirds of perpetrators.

‘Flawed data’

However, having examined local data in three police force areas, she found “disproportionate numbers of men from Asian ethnic backgrounds amongst suspects for group-based child sexual exploitation, as well as in the significant number of perpetrators of Asian ethnicity identified in local reviews and high-profile child sexual exploitation prosecutions across the country, to at least warrant further examination”.

She added: “Despite reviews, reports and inquiries raising questions about men from Asian or Pakistani backgrounds grooming and sexually exploiting young white girls, the system has consistently failed to fully acknowledge this or collect accurate data so it can be examined effectively.

“Instead, flawed data is used repeatedly to dismiss claims about ‘Asian grooming gangs’ as sensationalised, biased or untrue.

“This does a disservice to victims and indeed all law-abiding people in Asian communities and plays into the hands of those who want to exploit it to sow division.”

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From January: Grooming gangs: What happened?

The baroness hit out at the failure of policing data and intelligence for having multiple systems which do not communicate with each other.

She also criticised “an ambivalent attitude to adolescent girls both in society and in the culture of many organisations”, too often judging them as adults.

‘Deep-rooted failure’

Responding to Baroness Casey’s review, Ms Yvette Cooper told the House of Commons: “The findings of her audit are damning.

“At its heart, she identifies a deep-rooted failure to treat children as children. A continued failure to protect children and teenage girls from rape, from exploitation, and serious violence.

She added: “Baroness Casey found ‘blindness, ignorance, prejudice, defensiveness and even good but misdirected intentions’ all played a part in this collective failure.”

Ms Cooper said she will take immediate action on all 12 recommendations from the report, adding: “We cannot afford more wasted years repeating the same mistakes or shouting at each other across this House rather than delivering real change.”

Yvette Cooper makes a statement in the House of Commons, London, on Baroness Casey's findings on grooming gangs.
Pic: PA
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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper responded to the report. Pic: PA

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: “After months of pressure, the prime minister has finally accepted our calls for a full statutory national inquiry into the grooming gangs.

“We must remember that this is not a victory for politicians, especially the ones like the home secretary, who had to be dragged to this position, or the prime minister. This is a victory for the survivors who have been calling for this for years.”

Ms Badenoch added: “The prime minister’s handling of this scandal is an extraordinary failure of leadership. His judgement has once again been found wanting.

“Since he became prime minister, he and the home secretary dismissed calls for an inquiry because they did not want to cause a stir.

“They accused those of us demanding justice for the victims of this scandal as, and I quote, ‘jumping on a far right bandwagon’, a claim the prime minister’s official spokesman restated this weekend – shameful.”

The government has promised new laws to protect children and support victims so they “stop being blamed for the crimes committed against them”.

It is also launching new police operations and a new national inquiry to direct local investigations and hold institutions to account for past failures.

There will also be new ethnicity data and research “so we face up to the facts on exploitation and abuse,” the home secretary said.

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