The world’s energy future is being decided at COP28 – these few words could decide how it unfolds
Right now in Dubai, pretty much every government in the world is debating what kind of energy we will all be using in just 25 years’ time, which will influence the climate we live in and the air we breathe.
A very early draft version of the final treaty released today moots a plan to “phase out fossil fuels” – but radically different ideas are on the table.
The text will morph as negotiators thrash it out over the next few weeks, and will fight right down to the wire.
Here are a few small, key words that are fuelling major tensions, and could shape what kind of world we live in.
Fossil fuels: to ‘phase out’, or ‘phase down’ – that is the question
Small, fragile economies that are already being battered by climate change want a “phase out of fossil fuels”.
This is the most ambitious option on the table, and the previous 27 COP summits have so far barely addressed a reduction on fossil fuels.
At COP26 in Glasgow, countries agreed to “phase down coal”, and at COP27 in Egypt last year about 80 countries lobbied to expand that to all fossil fuels, but were defeated.
“Phase out” may morph into “phase down”, which is regarded a softer version.
Environmentalists want a deadline including those phrases, so governments can be held accountable on their progress.
There are lots of other words in the mix that soften this phase out/phase down language.
‘Just’
Vulnerable nations in particular are pushing for a “just” phase out, in the interests of fairness.
“Climate justice” advocates the idea that developed countries like the UK, USA and Norway have already got rich from fossil fuels, and so ought to ditch them faster than developing nations like Nigeria or South Africa, which have less cash and fewer options for their economic development.
Unabated
The UK, US and the 27-strong EU bloc are among those lobbying for a phase out of “unabated” fossil fuels – providing much more wiggle room.
Unabated coal, oil or gas power is when these fossil fuels are burned without the technology to capture their emissions.
That is how virtually every power plant or emitting factory in the world runs at the moment, as the technology exists but has proved extremely difficult to get off the ground.
Campaigners call it a “fairytale solution”.
The scientific consensus assimilated by IPCC scientists, says that without abatement, limiting warming to agreed levels means by 2050, global coal use must fall 100%, oil by 60% and gas 70%, compared with 2019 levels.
These findings were signed off by all governments in the world.
Demand for all three is still rising, though peak demand is in sight by 2030. Residual emissions need “abating”, but this is supposed to be reserved only as a last resort, for industries like aviation that are as yet impossible to get off fossil fuels.
CCUS, CDR
These are technologies that “abate” emissions or suck them from the air.
CCUS stands for “carbon capture, usage and storage” and refers to a range of different equipments that prevent carbon dioxide from things like power plants or manufacturing facilities from reaching the atmosphere, by capturing it from the source.
It is then “used” in processes like injecting it back into oil wells to extract further oil, or “stored” underground in rock or empty gas fields, for example.
Carbon dioxide removals sucks the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere, as opposed to the source.
Major oil producers like Saudi Arabia lobby hard for these solutions, which in theory would allow them to continue producing at the same volumes for years to come.
Professor Johan Rockström, who runs Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and is a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, said: “To be clear, CDR needs to be used as an additionality. It cannot be used as a way of moving slow on oil and gas.”
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What is carbon capture?
Predominantly
The EU wants – as well as a phase out of “unabated” fossil fuels – an energy sector “predominantly free of
fossil fuels well ahead of 2050″.
Again, “predominantly” allows for some room to manoeuvre, so this word may pop up in different places in subsequent versions.
Those outside the world of COP may be raising their eyebrows to read that counties could spend hours fighting over a word like “predominantly”.
A sceptical interpretation of this is that it allows countries to get away with doing less – these sceptics might be right.
But it’s at least a testament to the fact these negotiations – flawed though the process is – matter; otherwise, countries wouldn’t fight so hard over them.
For example, if you’re from low-lying, island nation Palau, these decisions influence how quickly you lose swathes of your land underwater.
New pictures show the moment of impact as an Israeli missile hit a Beirut apartment block and exploded.
The block was one of five buildings destroyed by airstrikes on Friday alone.
Israel launched airstrikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut in a fourth consecutive day of intense attacks.
There were no immediate reports of casualties.
An Associated Press photographer captured a sequence of images showing an Israeli bomb approaching and hitting a multi-storey apartment building in Beirut’s Tayouneh area.
Richard Weir, a senior crisis, conflict and arms researcher at Human Rights Watch, reviewed the close-up photos to determine what type of weapon was used.
“The bomb and components visible in the photographs, including the strake, wire harness cover, and tail fin section, are consistent with a Mk-84 series 2,000-pound class general purpose bomb equipped with Boeing’s joint directed attack munition tail kit,” he told AP.
Pics: AP
Smoke covers a building that collapses following the strike. Pic: AP
Deadly strikes as bombardment stepped up
Israel stepped up its bombardment this week – an escalation that has coincided with signs of movement in US-led diplomacy towards a ceasefire.
The Israeli military said its fighter jets attacked munitions warehouses, a headquarters and other Hezbollah infrastructure. It issued a warning on social media identifying buildings ahead of the strikes.
Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed five members of the same family in a home in Ain Qana in the southern province of Nabatiyeh, Lebanon’s state media said.
The report said a mother, father and their three children were killed but didn’t provide their ages.
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Three other Israeli strikes killed six people and wounded 32 in different parts of Tyre province on Friday, also in south Lebanon, the report said.
Video footage also showed a building being struck and turning into a cloud of rubble and debris that billowed into Horsh Beirut, the city’s main park.
Residents check the site of the airstrike in Tayouneh, Beirut. Pic: AP
More than 3,200 people have been killed in Lebanon during 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah – most of them since mid-September.
About 27% of those killed were women and children, according to Lebanon’s health ministry.
Israel dramatically escalated its bombardment of Lebanon from September, vowing to cripple Hezbollah and end its barrages in Israel.
Friday’s strikes come as Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister has asked Iran to help secure a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah.
The prime minister appeared to urge Ali Larijani, a top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, to convince the militant group to agree to a deal that could require it to pull back from the Israel-Lebanon border.
Iran is a main backer of Hezbollah and for decades has been funding and arming the Lebanese militant group.
On Thursday, Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister and a member of its security cabinet, said that prospects for a ceasefire with Lebanon were the most promising since the conflict began.
The Washington Post reported Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was rushing to advance a Lebanon ceasefire to deliver an early foreign policy win to his ally, US President-elect Donald Trump.
“Super high-IQ revolutionaries” who are willing to work 80+ hours a week are being urged to join Elon Musk’s new cost-cutting department in Donald Trump’s incoming US government.
The X and Tesla owner will co-lead the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE) with former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
And in a post on X, the official DOGE account put out a call to arms for people to sign up and help “dismantle government bureaucracy”.
The post said: “We are very grateful to the thousands of Americans who have expressed interest in helping us at DOGE.
“We don’t need more part-time idea generators.
“We need super high-IQ small-government revolutionaries willing to work 80+ hours per week on unglamorous cost-cutting.
“If that’s you, DM this account with your CV. Elon & Vivek will review the top 1% of applicants.”
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Elon Musk speaking at an event held at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Pic: AP Photo/Alex Brandon
In a reply to an interested party, Mr Musk suggested the lucky applicants would be working for free.
“Indeed, this will be tedious work, make lost of enemies & compensation is zero,” the world’s richest man wrote.
“What a great deal!”
When announcing the new department, President-elect Donald Trump said Mr Musk and Mr Ramaswamy “will pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies”.
Mr Musk has previously made clear his desire to see cuts to “government waste” and in a post on his X platform suggested he could axe as many as three-quarters of the more than 400 federal departments in the US, writing: “99 is enough.”
At least 10 people have been killed after a fire broke out at a retirement home in northern Spain in the early hours of this morning, officials have said.
A further two people were seriously injured in the blaze at the residence in the town of Villafranca de Ebro in Zaragoza, according to the Spanish news website Diario Sur.
Two people remain in a critical condition following the blaze. Pic: AP
They remain in a critical condition, while several others received treatment for smoke inhalation.
Firefighters were alerted to the blaze at the residence – the Jardines de Villafranca – at 5am (4am UK time) on Friday.
Several residents were treated for smoke inhalation. Pic: AP
Those who were killed in the fire died from smoke inhalation, Spanish newspaper Heraldo reported.
The residence is home to 82 elderly residents.
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The blaze started in one of the rooms, Fernando Beltran, the national government’s top official in the region, told reporters.
All of the victims were elderly residents, he added.
Relatives wait for news outside the care home. Pic: AP
Fire crews, paramedics and police officers remain on site, said a spokesperson for the regional government of Aragon who confirmed the fatalities.
It took firefighters several hours to extinguish the blaze, they said.
The cause of the fire is unknown and is being investigated.
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