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The nation hosting the COP28 climate summit has had its climate plan downgraded to the lowest category.

The United Arab Emirates‘ climate plan is now rated “critically insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of climate analysts and thinktanks.

The group assesses whether countries’ plans – known as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) – are good enough to fulfil their part of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Even though the UAE recently ramped up the targets in its plan, the policies to match it were missing, CAT said.

“A country like the UAE with very high per capita emissions and very high GDP per capita, they need to reduce their emissions. That’s very clear. And that’s currently not happening,” said Dr Niklas Hohne, an analyst from New Climate Institute involved in the research, and a professor in cutting emissions.

In October, the UAE’s national oil company, ADNOC, awarded contracts worth $17bn (£13bn) for the development of the Hail and Ghasha offshore gas fields, as part of a $150bn (£118bn) fossil fuel expansion plan.

“That’s totally counter to what is discussed here [at the climate summit],” said Dr Hohne.

More on Cop28

The UAE’s COP28 team was not immediately available to comment.

It comes as the UAE’s COP presidency team unveiled a slew of announcements on energy it had brokered with governments and industries.

More than 110 countries pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, in a bid to displace demand for fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, more than 20 nations committed to trebling nuclear power, and more than 50 oil and gas companies said they would tackle emissions from their operations.

World leaders pose for a group photo during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, December 1, 2023. COP28 / Mahmoud Khaled/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY.
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World leaders pose for a group photo during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai

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Tom Evans from thinktank E3G, which was not involved with the analysis, but is tracking progress in Dubai, said: “For all the flashy announcements made on the stage of COP, when you look closer it’s clear that there’s much more the UAE needs to do to get its emissions down.”

CAT had already rated the UAE’s plan “insufficient”, the fourth lowest of five categories.

The downgrade was partly due to the analysts filling out missing data about greenhouse gas emissions from air conditioning, relied on by people here in Dubai, where it is currently 30C in winter.

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Inside the climate summit

Read more:
Is Dubai playing its part to tackle climate change?
Will COP28 actually change the world?
Is the UK ‘fuelling’ the climate crisis?

The change was also down to an update in what science says is needed to try to limit global warming to 1.5C – a change that affected other countries’ assessments too.

The coal-powered Hassyan power plant is seen under construction in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2020. The planned $3.4 billion coal-fired power plant in Dubai instead will be converted to use natural gas, the sheikhdom announced Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022, amid the United Arab Emirates' wider pledge to have net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)
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The coal-powered Hassyan power plant is seen under construction in Dubai

But Dr Hohne said it was “particularly unfortunate” in the case of the UAE because as COP28 president it has a leadership role, “and usually they should really do the right things”.

However, he praised the advances the UAE has made, including its investment in renewable power domestically and in dozens of countries abroad, though it is outweighed by the investment in oil and gas.

Other countries rated ‘critically insufficient’ include fellow major fossil fuel producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia, as well as Turkey, Singapore and Thailand.

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China and Hong Kong brace for super typhoon after 14 killed in Taiwan – with 129 missing

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China and Hong Kong brace for super typhoon after 14 killed in Taiwan - with 129 missing

At least 14 people have been killed in an area of Taiwan popular with tourists after Super Typhoon Ragasa lashed the island nation, with Hong Kong and mainland China braced for impact.

The powerful storm – the strongest in years – has forced thousands to flee their homes, with flights cancelled and schools and businesses shuttered as about 70cm (28 inches) of rain has fallen on eastern areas.

At least four more people were reported to have been killed in the Philippines, where nearly 700,000 people were affected by the super typhoon in the main northern region of Luzon.

The deaths in Taiwan were reported in the eastern Taiwanese county of Hualien, which is popular with tourists.

At least 129 people are missing after a town, Guangfu, was flooded by a deluge from a barrier lake which burst its banks on Tuesday afternoon.

Around 60 million tonnes of water was released, the Taiwanese government said, the equivalent of a major reservoir in southern Taiwan.

A man stands near a military vehicle on a road filled with mud brought by flooding in Hualien, Taiwan. Pic: Reuters
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A man stands near a military vehicle on a road filled with mud brought by flooding in Hualien, Taiwan. Pic: Reuters

Taiwan’s fire department said all the fatalities and missing people are from Guangfu.

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One resident, a postman who gave his family name as Hsieh, told Reuters news agency the water hit like a “tsunami” which swept his car into his living room.

Late on Wednesday morning, a new flood warning sounded in Guangfu, where shouts were heard from residents and rescuers of “the flood waters are coming, run fast”.

Elsewhere, Dama, a village of around 1,000 people, has been completely flooded.

Its chieftain, Wang Tse-an, told Reuters many locals are still stranded there, adding: “It’s chaotic now. There are mud and rocks everywhere.”

Regions across Taiwan have sent at least 340 soldiers to Hualien to help rescue efforts.

In Guangfu, troops operating from an armoured personnel carrier to avoid the thick mud on the streets went door-to-door
handing out water and instant noodles.

Ragasa is set to hit China’s Guangdong province, where more than 370,000 residents have been evacuated, on Wednesday.

Hong Kong’s storm level is at its highest level of 10 as people reported being woken by fierce winds in the early hours.

Parts of a pedestrian bridge’s roof were blown away, hundreds of trees were knocked down across the city and more than 30 injured people were treated at hospitals.

A video that showed waves of water crashing through the doors of a hotel and flooding its interiors went viral in the financial hub, where warnings of hurricane-force winds of well over 120mph have been issued.

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Trump disparages Russian military – and backs Ukraine to retake all lost territory

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Trump disparages Russian military - and backs Ukraine to retake all lost territory

Donald Trump disparaged the Russian military and backed Ukraine to retake all its occupied territory in an astonishing about-turn on the war.

In a post on Truth Social, made after talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations in New York, the US president said a return to “the original borders from where this war started is very much an option”.

“I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form,” he wrote.

Mr Trump said “time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO” could help Kyv win back lost territory, and said Russia was in “economic trouble”.

He said Moscow had been “fighting aimlessly” for three-and-a-half years – and had it been a “real military power” it would have defeated Ukraine in less than a week.

“This is not distinguishing Russia. In fact, it is very much making them look like ‘a paper tiger’,” he added.

Mr Zelenskyy told Sky News US correspondent Mark Stone it was a “big shift” from his US counterpart.

He later admitted he was surprised by Mr Trump’s comments, telling Fox News’ Special Report he has a better relationship with the president than before.

Read more: Why emboldened Trump has changed his stance on Ukraine

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations. Pic: Reuters

Trump’s patience not ‘infinite’

Mr Trump also appeared to pour cold water on his hopes of persuading Vladimir Putin to sign a peace deal.

Speaking to Emmanuel Macron at the UN summit, he said their relationship had turned out to be meaningless.

Just last month, Mr Trump rolled out the red carpet for the Russian president at a summit in Alaska – in a push to expedite the war’s conclusion.

Before returning to the White House, he repeatedly claimed he’d be able to end the conflict in 24 hours.

Speaking at the UN Security Council, his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, admitted ending the war had proven an “extraordinary challenge”.

He said Mr Trump had “worked on it tirelessly”, but warned Russia his patience is not “infinite”.

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Rigby to Trump: Was Putin’s Alaska invite a mistake?

The US president has previously suggested Ukraine will never be able to reclaim all the territory Russia has occupied since seizing the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

Ukraine has lost large areas of land in the east of the country.

In the Donetsk region, Russia now controls about 70% of the territory. Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to four cities analysts have dubbed the “fortress belt”.

Moscow has partly annexed three other regions, too: Luhansk in the east, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson further west.

The situation in Ukraine on 19 September
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The situation in Ukraine on 19 September

Trump tells NATO to shoot down Russian jets in its skies

Meanwhile, Russia appears to be provoking its neighbours to the west. Last week, Estonia said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated its airspace for 12 minutes before Italian NATO jets escorted them away.

The week before, about 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO jets to shoot some of them down and the alliance to beef up its defence of Europe’s eastern flank.

While talking to Mr Zelenskyy at the UN, Mr Trump was asked by reporters whether he thought NATO should shoot down any Russian planes that entered NATO airspace.

“Yes, I do,” Mr Trump replied.

On Truth Social, he said the US would continue to supply weapons to NATO, and it was for the alliance to “do what they want with them”.

Read more:
Trump makes full-throttle assault on UN
Has Trump ‘ended seven wars’?

Mr Trump also suggested the Russian people are not aware of “what is really going on with this war”.

He added: “Most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine. Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”

He has called on European and NATO allies to increase economic sanctions on Moscow.

In a joint statement following the president’s comments, G7 foreign ministers said discussions were ongoing about additional economic sanctions on Russia.

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Why emboldened Donald Trump has changed his stance on Ukraine

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Why emboldened Donald Trump has changed his stance on Ukraine

As U-turns go, it’s a game-changer.

Donald Trump has pivoted from pressing Ukraine to surrender territory to suggesting it’s able to win all its land back.

This is the man who threw Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy out of the White House in February and brought Russia’s Vladimir Putin in from the cold in Alaska last month.

So, why the handbrake turn from framing negotiations as the most practical outcome to a new-found confidence in Ukraine, when supported by its European neighbours and NATO?

Trump held talks with Zelenskyy at the UN. Pic: Reuters
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Trump held talks with Zelenskyy at the UN. Pic: Reuters

Firstly, it could be the military and economic reality on the ground. Russia’s paying a high price for the war, both in manpower and finances.

Trump has acknowledged that Moscow is in “big economic trouble”, which strengthens the case for Ukraine prevailing with Western help.

Ukraine’s resilience has also shifted perceptions – the impossible now looking possible if allies remain committed.

Secondly, it could be the influence of allies. European leaders flew to Washington en masse last month to urge caution in dealings with Putin.

European NATO members have stepped up aid to Ukraine, further weakening the President’s rhetoric about America carrying the financial burden.

He’s suddenly aligning himself with European countries, endorsing the shooting down of Russian planes violating their airspace.

Thirdly, it could be more about domestic politics, with the president under bipartisan scrutiny at home over his “softly, softly” approach to Russia.

A tougher national defence posture could help him consolidate support among Republicans, while also appealing to moderates, who regard the defence of Ukraine as a test of national credibility.

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Zelenskyy on Trump’s ‘big shift’ over Ukraine

Trump versus the world

There’s another factor worth considering – Trump’s negotiating tactic. He has a long record of changing position to gain leverage.

Talk of compromise might have been the strategy for getting Ukraine and Russia into talks, but with Russia showing no willingness to compromise, his calculation shifting back to the restoration of Ukraine.

Whatever the reason for his change of heart, and whether it translates into US policy, the last three days have shown an emboldened Trump.

From his declaration of “hate” for his opponents during a memorial service for Charlie Kirk, to his sensational claim to have “found an answer on autism”, to his derision of the UN, he’s unfiltered right now.

Place him in front of a microphone or online, and it’s Trump versus the world.

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