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The Bank of England has said that UK households and businesses have been “resilient” in the face of rising interest rates – but repeated previous warnings that the full effect of higher interest rates was yet to come through.

Unveiling its latest Financial Stability Report – which is published twice yearly – the Bank said that household finances remained “stretched by increased living costs and higher interest rates, some of which has yet to be reflected in higher mortgage repayments.”

The Bank, which raised its main policy rate 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August this year to the current 15-year high of 5.25%, said that, because most mortgages taken out over recent years had been at a fixed interest rate, higher interest rates tended to have a lagged effect on households with a mortgage.

It said that around 55% of mortgage borrower accounts, around five million, had repriced since interest rates began to rise in late 2021.

But it warned: “Higher rates are expected to affect around five million [further] households by 2026.

“For the typical owner-occupier mortgagor rolling off a fixed rate between [April to June] 2023 and the end of 2026, their monthly mortgage repayments are projected to increase by around £240, or around 39%.

“As higher mortgage rates continue to flow through to UK households, the average debt servicing burden will increase.”

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The report noted that, although average quoted mortgage rates had come down since the Bank’s last Financial Stability Report in July this year, they remained “higher than in the recent past”.

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People are waiting for mortgage rates to drop

Andrew Bailey, the governor, emphasised that the UK banking sector remained well capitalised and had come through the Bank’s recent stress tests well.

He added: “If economic and financial conditions were to materially worsen for households and businesses, our banking sector has the capacity to support them.”

He said that there was evidence that net interest margins (the spread between what banks charge borrowers and pay depositors and a key driver of bank profits) had peaked.

The governor highlighted that, “thank goodness”, despite higher mortgage costs there had not been a big increase in home repossessions as in the past.

He added: “The financial system is much better placed to support borrowers. It’s a benefit of financial stability that the system is able to take these actions. And that’s a good thing, a very good thing.”

Mr Bailey said that, while UK households and businesses had remained resilient in the face of higher borrowing costs, the Bank had noticed an increase in arrears among home owners – both those living in their own homes with a mortgage and among buy-to-let landlords.

He said that the Bank was “very alert” to the issue of renters and particularly in view of the fact that, with home ownership in decline, renters now formed a larger proportion of the population and also tended to be at the lower end of the income scale.

He went on: “There is obviously a financial stability lens on this and it comes through the buy-to-let market.”

Asked about the way in which some borrowers were responding to higher mortgage rates Sarah Breedon, the deputy governor responsible for financial stability, said the Bank had noted an increased uptake, over time, of long-dated mortgages of up to 35 years and particularly among younger borrowers.

She added: “The more important thing is lending into retirement when people might not have the income [to cover mortgage payments]. We don’t judge it as a financial stability risk but it is something we are watching.”

Mr Bailey said that, among corporates, there was also evidence of some arrears building up and in particular among small and medium sized businesses.

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But the report noted that the share of corporates at higher risk had fallen from its pandemic peak and pointed out that the bulk of UK corporate debt on fixed rates was due to mature in or after 2025.

The governor added: “We judge that the UK corporate sector as a whole has remained resilient.”

Further afield, Mr Bailey said that the overall risk environment remained challenging, singling out the Chinese economy – where many parts of the property sector remain under strain – as a particular risk for the global economy. He added that the “tragic events in the Middle East” had also contributed to geopolitical uncertainty.

The governor also sounded a warning on vulnerabilities in so-called ‘non-bank’ finance – services such as loans and credit which are not provided by banks but by other institutions, such as insurers, venture capital firms and currency exchanges.

In particular, he highlighted market-based finance – the provision of types of corporate credit, such as high-yield bonds and leveraged loans – where he said risks remained significant and, in some cases, had increased since the Bank’s last report in July.

He added: “There are now larger imbalances in the market in derivatives for US government debt – a key instrument in the financial system.”

The governor said that this could contribute to market volatility if hedge funds needed to unwind their positions in such instruments rapidly and noted that sharp movements in the prices of such assets could lead to wider dislocations as was shown during the LDI crisis which followed Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget in September last year.

The report also revealed that, since July, the Bank’s financial policy committee had been briefed on the continued adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in financial services and their potential financial stability implications.

Mr Bailey said: “I don’t pretend to be an expert on AI, because I am not, but when I speak to people who are they make the point [on] the complexity of the code behind it and the extent to which it is understood.

“It obviously has tremendous potential and particularly to improve productivity which would be a welcome thing.”

The governor also paid tribute to Alistair Darling, the former Chancellor, who died last week. He said Lord Darling was “wise, kind and had an absolutely wicked sense of humour.”

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Energy grid £28bn upgrade to add £108 to household bills

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Energy grid £28bn upgrade to add £108 to household bills

The energy regulator has confirmed plans for a massive upgrade to the UK’s energy grids, adding £108 to customer bills by 2031.

Ofgem said on Thursday that the £28bn investment over the next five years would bolster resilience in the transition to a renewable energy future and that much of the bill would be offset by increased efficiency.

It pointed to estimated savings for households of around £80 because of the planned investment in gas and power infrastructure, leaving a net additional contribution of £28.

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Ofgem said the £28bn sum formed part of an estimated £90bn to be invested in the energy networks by 2031, with “adaptive” funding arrangements helping to shield customers from volatility in the market.

Most of the funding announced on Thursday will go towards maintaining gas networks, which will remain a key source of energy as green power capacity is built up further.

“Investing now to maintain world-class resilience and expand grid capacity is the most cost-effective way to harness clean power, support economic growth and protect the country from gas price shocks like the one seen in 2022”, Ofgem said.

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Then, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s refusal to buy Russian gas in response, meant that energy bills hit unprecedented levels and gave birth to the wider cost-of-living crisis as higher energy costs were passed on across the economy.

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Ofgem made its announcement as costs of government energy policy and other upgrades make the biggest upwards contributions to household bills. However, the budget moved to take away some costs from April next year.

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley said: “The funding announced today will keep Britain’s energy network among the safest, most secure and resilient in the world. The investment will support the transition to new forms of energy and support new industrial customers to help drive economic growth and insulate us from volatile gas prices.

“But this is not investment at any price. Every pound must deliver value for consumers. Ofgem will hold network companies accountable for delivering on time and on budget, and we make no apologies for the efficiency challenge we’re setting as the industry scales up investment.

“We’ve built strong consumer protections into these contracts, meaning funds will only be released when needed and clawed back if not used. Households and businesses must get value for money, and we will ensure they do.”

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‘It’s either keep warm or eat’

A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: “This government is taking action to bring down energy bills for families, with the budget taking an average £150 of costs off bills in April, and expanding our £150 Warm Home Discount to over six million families.

“Upgrading our gas and electricity networks after years of underinvestment is essential to keep the lights on and ensure energy security for our country. Without these plans, which were first set out under the previous government, costs would spiral and our security would be compromised.

“The only way to bring down bills for good and get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster is with this government’s mission to deliver clean homegrown that we control.”

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Stronger reforms called for over baby formula crisis

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Stronger reforms called for over baby formula crisis

The UK government is being urged to take even stronger action to tackle the ongoing crisis of families unable to afford baby formula milk. 

The prime minister backed limited reforms to the market to help parents save money but will not yet support more radical changes.

Sir Keir Starmer confirmed support for better public health messaging to inform parents that cheaper brands are nutritionally equivalent when compared with the most expensive.

A ban on spending store loyalty points on baby formula will also be lifted.

They were among recommendations made by the Competition and Markets Authority which investigated the baby formula industry and described the price rises in recent years as unjustifiable.

A newborn. File Pic: iStock
Image:
A newborn. File Pic: iStock

In the House of Commons the prime minister said: “For too long parents have been pushed into spending more on infant formula.

“They were told they’re paying for better quality and left hundreds of pounds out of pocket.

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“I can announce today that we’re changing that. We will take action to give parents and carers the confidence to access infant formula at more affordable prices, with clearer guidance for retailers on helping new parents use loyalty points and vouchers together.”

It comes two-and-a-half years after a Sky News investigation revealed the extreme measures families were taking to feed their babies.

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Parents described how they had resorted to stealing to feed their infants, some were watering down formula milk or substituting it for condensed milk.

The British Pregnancy Advisory Service described the situation in 2023 as a “national scandal”.

Campaigners told Sky News the UK government needed to go further to address the crisis.

Co-founder of Feed UK Erin Williams told Sky News: “It is progress, they promised to look at this enormous nationwide problem and they have.

“At the moment women are still not routinely getting important information before giving birth – this should be given proactively to everybody and that will be a big win.

“The prime minister though needs to be tougher on the baby formula companies.

“Their marketing claims, their unjustified pricing – it’s stacked against families who just need to feed their babies safely.”

The UK government stopped short of accepting all of the recommendations made by the CMA.

More radical ideas such as a price cap on baby formula are not being considered.

Charities have also told Sky News the situations some families find themselves in have not eased.

Founder of the Hartlepool Baby Bank, Emilie De Bruijn, told Sky News the demand they see from desperate families is “constant and unmanageable”.

She said: “Parents are really feeling the pinch right now, and demands on baby banks are rising and it can feel quite relentless.

“We are pleased to see the extension of the National Breastfeeding Helpline alongside measures such as allowing parents to use points and vouchers.

“It is important that parents are supported to feed their children in whatever way they want and we hope that steps will continue to be taken to reduce the cost of formula and increase understanding that all brands are nutritionally the same.”

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Engineer loses case against her employer over transgender toilet policy

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Engineer loses case against her employer over transgender toilet policy

An engineer who took aerospace giant Leonardo UK to an employment tribunal for having to share women’s toilets with transgender colleagues has lost a discrimination claim.

Maria Kelly alleged harassment related to sex, direct sex discrimination and indirect sex discrimination.

Ms Kelly took action after lodging a formal grievance with the company.

The tribunal was heard in Edinburgh in October, but all of her claims have now been dismissed by employment judge Michelle Sutherland.

Ms Kelly said she believes the outcome “fundamentally misunderstands both the law and my case”, as she announced plans to appeal.

In a written judgment published on Wednesday, Ms Sutherland said Leonardo UK’s position was that “one out of 9,500 employees raised a concern about the impact of the policy despite multiple means to do so”.

She found there was no “disadvantage” due to the policy.

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Ms Sutherland added: “Any fear or privacy impact could be addressed by affected female staff making recourse to the single occupancy facilities.

“Any effect on risk of assault arising from 0.5% of men using the women’s toilets instead of the men’s toilets would not have changed the overall risk profile across toilet facilities generally.

“In the circumstances of this case, the toilet access policy was in the alternative a proportionate means of achieving a legitimate aim.”

The case followed the UK Supreme Court judgment in April which ruled the terms “woman” and “sex” in the 2010 Equality Act refer to a biological woman and biological sex.

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Ms Kelly, people and capability lead for the firm, had told the tribunal she began using a “secret” toilet at her workplace after encountering a transgender colleague in a female bathroom in March 2023.

She said she had first become aware of a transgender person using the female toilets in 2019 but did not raise the issue with the company at the time as she feared being labelled “transphobic” or being put on the “naughty list”.

Ms Kelly said: “I am of course disappointed by the judgment, which I believe fundamentally misunderstands both the law and my case.

“I intend to appeal, and I will ask the EAT (Employment Appeal Tribunal) to consider expediting my appeal as the decision risks further confounding the already widespread misunderstanding and defiance of the Supreme Court’s judgment in For Women Scotland.”

Maya Forstater, chief executive of charity Sex Matters, said: “This judgment interprets the law as transactivists would wish it to be, and is incompatible with the Supreme Court ruling in For Women Scotland in several places.

“It is incredible that even after the highest court in the land has ruled that the law recognises men and women in terms of biological sex, there are lower courts still trying to see the world in terms of gender identity.”

Leonardo UK acknowledged the tribunal’s judgment.

A spokesperson for the firm added: “We recognise that the process has been demanding for everyone involved and we appreciate the professionalism shown by colleagues who supported the proceedings.

“Our focus now is to ensure that workplace conduct remains respectful and that our facilities’ policies continue to meet legal standards.

“We will review the forthcoming Equality and Human Rights Commission guidance when it is published and will make any adjustments that are required.

“Leonardo remains a supportive and inclusive environment for all employees.”

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