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The Bank of England has said that UK households and businesses have been “resilient” in the face of rising interest rates – but repeated previous warnings that the full effect of higher interest rates was yet to come through.

Unveiling its latest Financial Stability Report – which is published twice yearly – the Bank said that household finances remained “stretched by increased living costs and higher interest rates, some of which has yet to be reflected in higher mortgage repayments.”

The Bank, which raised its main policy rate 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August this year to the current 15-year high of 5.25%, said that, because most mortgages taken out over recent years had been at a fixed interest rate, higher interest rates tended to have a lagged effect on households with a mortgage.

It said that around 55% of mortgage borrower accounts, around five million, had repriced since interest rates began to rise in late 2021.

But it warned: “Higher rates are expected to affect around five million [further] households by 2026.

“For the typical owner-occupier mortgagor rolling off a fixed rate between [April to June] 2023 and the end of 2026, their monthly mortgage repayments are projected to increase by around £240, or around 39%.

“As higher mortgage rates continue to flow through to UK households, the average debt servicing burden will increase.”

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The report noted that, although average quoted mortgage rates had come down since the Bank’s last Financial Stability Report in July this year, they remained “higher than in the recent past”.

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People are waiting for mortgage rates to drop

Andrew Bailey, the governor, emphasised that the UK banking sector remained well capitalised and had come through the Bank’s recent stress tests well.

He added: “If economic and financial conditions were to materially worsen for households and businesses, our banking sector has the capacity to support them.”

He said that there was evidence that net interest margins (the spread between what banks charge borrowers and pay depositors and a key driver of bank profits) had peaked.

The governor highlighted that, “thank goodness”, despite higher mortgage costs there had not been a big increase in home repossessions as in the past.

He added: “The financial system is much better placed to support borrowers. It’s a benefit of financial stability that the system is able to take these actions. And that’s a good thing, a very good thing.”

Mr Bailey said that, while UK households and businesses had remained resilient in the face of higher borrowing costs, the Bank had noticed an increase in arrears among home owners – both those living in their own homes with a mortgage and among buy-to-let landlords.

He said that the Bank was “very alert” to the issue of renters and particularly in view of the fact that, with home ownership in decline, renters now formed a larger proportion of the population and also tended to be at the lower end of the income scale.

He went on: “There is obviously a financial stability lens on this and it comes through the buy-to-let market.”

Asked about the way in which some borrowers were responding to higher mortgage rates Sarah Breedon, the deputy governor responsible for financial stability, said the Bank had noted an increased uptake, over time, of long-dated mortgages of up to 35 years and particularly among younger borrowers.

She added: “The more important thing is lending into retirement when people might not have the income [to cover mortgage payments]. We don’t judge it as a financial stability risk but it is something we are watching.”

Mr Bailey said that, among corporates, there was also evidence of some arrears building up and in particular among small and medium sized businesses.

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How is the mortgage crisis affecting you?

But the report noted that the share of corporates at higher risk had fallen from its pandemic peak and pointed out that the bulk of UK corporate debt on fixed rates was due to mature in or after 2025.

The governor added: “We judge that the UK corporate sector as a whole has remained resilient.”

Further afield, Mr Bailey said that the overall risk environment remained challenging, singling out the Chinese economy – where many parts of the property sector remain under strain – as a particular risk for the global economy. He added that the “tragic events in the Middle East” had also contributed to geopolitical uncertainty.

The governor also sounded a warning on vulnerabilities in so-called ‘non-bank’ finance – services such as loans and credit which are not provided by banks but by other institutions, such as insurers, venture capital firms and currency exchanges.

In particular, he highlighted market-based finance – the provision of types of corporate credit, such as high-yield bonds and leveraged loans – where he said risks remained significant and, in some cases, had increased since the Bank’s last report in July.

He added: “There are now larger imbalances in the market in derivatives for US government debt – a key instrument in the financial system.”

The governor said that this could contribute to market volatility if hedge funds needed to unwind their positions in such instruments rapidly and noted that sharp movements in the prices of such assets could lead to wider dislocations as was shown during the LDI crisis which followed Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget in September last year.

The report also revealed that, since July, the Bank’s financial policy committee had been briefed on the continued adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in financial services and their potential financial stability implications.

Mr Bailey said: “I don’t pretend to be an expert on AI, because I am not, but when I speak to people who are they make the point [on] the complexity of the code behind it and the extent to which it is understood.

“It obviously has tremendous potential and particularly to improve productivity which would be a welcome thing.”

The governor also paid tribute to Alistair Darling, the former Chancellor, who died last week. He said Lord Darling was “wise, kind and had an absolutely wicked sense of humour.”

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Banks ‘investing heavily’ in digital platforms as payday glitch chaos strikes again

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Banks 'investing heavily' in digital platforms as payday glitch chaos strikes again

The banking sector is “investing heavily” in digital platforms, according to the body which represents the country’s lenders as many face a backlash over the latest payday glitch chaos to hit customers.

Millions were exposed on Friday to varying challenges from slow app or online banking performance to being blocked out of their accounts altogether.

Users said the brands caught up in the issues – which did not appear to be the result of a single problem – included Lloyds, Halifax, Nationwide, TSB, Bank of Scotland and First Direct.

It marked the second month in a row for payday problems and no reasons have been given for them.

Money latest: How is my bank affected by banking glitch?

The industry has been historically reluctant to talk about the common challenges but its mouthpiece, UK Finance, told Sky News there was help available and protections in place during times of disruption while acknowledging customer frustrations.

The body spoke up as MPs and regulators take a greater interest in the resilience issue due to mounting concerns over the number of glitches.

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All this comes at a time when major lenders face criticism for continuing to cut branch services at a regular pace – blaming ever higher demand for online services.

The UK’s big banking brands have been shutting branches since the fallout from the financial crisis in 2008, which sparked a rush to cut costs.

The uptake of digital banking services has seen more than 6,200 sites go to the wall since 2015, according to the consumer group Which?

The latest closures were revealed last month by Lloyds – Britain’s biggest mortgage lender.

General view of signage at a branch of Lloyds bank, in London, Britain October 31, 2021. REUTERS/Tom Nicholson
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Lloyds revealed in January that it was cutting a further 130+ branches from its network of brands. Pic: Reuters

Its announcements meant that it planned, across the group, to have just 386 Lloyds-branded branches left, with Halifax down to 281.

Bank of Scotland would have just 90 once the closure programme was completed.

Critics have long accused the industry of failing to sufficiently invest their branch closure savings in better online services.

But a UK Finance spokesperson said: “All banks invest heavily in their systems and technology to ensure customers have easy access to banking services.

“Where issues arise, they work extremely hard to rectify them quickly and to support their customers.

“Banks have been posting information on their websites and social media accounts to ensure they keep customers updated.”

Are banks doing enough?

Earlier this month, The Treasury committee of MPs wrote to bank bosses to request information on the scale and impact of IT failures over the past two years.

Their responses should have been received by Wednesday.

The letters followed an outage at Barclays which led to some customers being unable to access some services for up to three days from Friday 31 January.

The day marked HMRC’s self-assessment deadline alongside pay day.

The Bank of England has also been taking a greater interest in the issue for financial stability reasons.

The MPs sought data from the banks on the volumes of customers affected by glitches – and the compensation that had been offered.

Committee chair, Dame Meg Hillier, said then: “When a bank’s IT system goes down, it can be a real problem for our constituents who were relying on accessing certain services so they can buy food or pay bills.

“For it to happen at a major bank such as Barclays at such a crucial time of year is either bad luck or bad planning. Either way, it’s important to learn what has happened and what will be done about it.

“The rapidly declining number of high street bank branches makes the impact of IT outages even more painful; that’s why I’ve decided to write to some of our biggest banks and building societies.”

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Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

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Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

From bin collections and parks to social care, it’s estimated local authorities in England provide more than 800 services for residents, touching on many different aspects of our lives all the way from childhood to elderly care.

A National Audit Office report found spending on services increased by £12.8bn – from £60bn to £72.8bn – between 2015-16 and 2023-24, a 21% increase in real terms.

Most of this increased spending – £10.3bn – has gone to adult and children’s social care, which represents councils’ biggest spend, increasing as a share of overall spending from 53% to 58% over the period.

Previous central funding cuts and an increasing population mean that spending power per person has largely stagnated, however, and remains 1% lower per person than in 2015/16, the report said.

This is a measure of the funding available to local authorities from central government grants, council tax and business rates. Though grant funding has increased in recent years, it has not yet made up for pre-2020 government cuts.

Complex needs

The population in England has increased by 5% over the period, accounting for some of this increased pressure, but it’s not the only driver.

In many areas, demand has outpaced population growth, as external events and the complexity of people’s needs has shifted over time.

The rapid increase in costs of temporary accommodation, for example, has been driven by the large increases in people facing homelessness because of inflationary pressures and housing shortages.

At the same time, demand for new adult social care plans has increased by 15%.

As life expectancies have increased, the length of time in people’s lives during which they suffer from health problems has also increased.

“We see that in adult social care that people have multiple conditions and need more and more support and often will be appearing as if they’re frailer at an earlier age. So that’s an important trend,” explained Melanie Williams, president of the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services.

“We’re constantly focusing on most urgent things at the expense of not doing the preventative work,” she added.

“When we’re just focusing on getting people home from hospital, we’re not doing that piece of work to enable them not to go there in the first place.”

Budget cliff edge over SEND spending

Meanwhile, demand for education, health and care (EHC) plans, for children with more complex special educational support needs has more than doubled, increasing by 140% to 576,000.

Budgets for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) have not kept pace, meaning local authority spending has consistently outstripped government funding, leading to substantial deficits in council budgets.

Most authorities with responsibilities for SEND have overspent their budget as they have been allowed to until March 2026 on a temporary override, but they will need to draw on their own reserves to make these payments in a year.

One in three councils will have deficits that they can’t cover when the override ends.

Cuts to services

In the latest figures for 2023/24, the NAO found £3 in every £5 of services spending by English local authorities went towards social care and education, totalling £42.3bn.

This has left little headroom for other services, many of which have experienced real-terms financial cuts over the same time period, with councils forced to identify other services like libraries, parks and the arts to make savings.

But, Williams warned, cultural and environmental services like these can play a vital role in wellbeing and may actually exacerbate demand for social care.

“For us to be able to safeguard both adults and children – so people that need extra support – we do need that wider bit for councils to do,” said Williams, who also serves as corporate director of adult social care for Nottingham County Council.

“It’s no good me just providing care and support if somebody can’t go out and access a park, or go out and access leisure, or go out and have that wider support in the community.”

Commenting on the report, Cllr Tim Oliver, chairman of the County Councils Network, said: “As we have warned, councils have little choice but to spend more and more on the most demand-intensive services, at the expense of everything else – leaving them providing little more than care services.

“It is market-specific cost pressures, mainly in adult social care, children’s services, and special educational needs, that are driving councils’ costs rather than deprivation. Therefore government must recognise and address these pressures in its fair funding review, otherwise it will push many well-run councils to the brink.”

Fighting fires

The NAO report describes a vicious cycle where councils’ limited budgets have resulted in a focus on reactive care addressing the most urgent needs.

More efficient preventative care that could lower demand in the long term has fallen to the wayside.

In one example cited by the NAO, the Public Health Grant, which funds preventative health services, is expected to fall in real terms by £846m (20.1%) between 2015/16 and 2024/25.

Other areas have seen a switch in funding from prevention to late intervention.

Councils’ funding towards homelessness support services increased by £1.57bn between 2015/16 and 2013/24, while money for preventative and other housing services fell by £0.64bn.

Financing overhaul needed

Since 2018, seven councils have issued section 114 notices, which indicate that a council’s planned spending will breach the Local Government Finance Act when the local authority believes it’s become unable to balance its budget.

And 42 local authorities have received over £5bn of support through the Exceptional Financial Support (EFS) framework since its introduction in 2020.

According to a recent Local Government Association survey referenced in the NAO report, up to 44% of councils believe they’ll have to issue a section 114 notice within the next two years should the UK government cease providing exceptional financial support.

Read more:
Councils to get £68m to build thousands of homes
Council tax to rise to pay for police funding increase
Councils to receive £1bn boost to tackle homelessness

Looking ahead to upcoming funding settlements, and the government’s planned reforms of local government, the NAO warns that short-term measures to address acute funding shortfalls have not addressed the systemic weaknesses in the funding model, with a whole system overhaul required.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Committee of Public Accounts, said: “Short-term support is a sticking plaster to the underlying pressures facing local authorities. Delays in local audits are further undermining public confidence in local government finances.

“There needs to be a cross-government approach to local government finance reform, which must deliver effective accountability and value for money for taxpayers.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Victims of second Post Office scandal criticise ‘grinding wheels of bureaucracy’ as they try to get compensation

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Victims of second Post Office scandal criticise 'grinding wheels of bureaucracy' as they try to get compensation

Victims of ‘Capture’, a second faulty Post Office accounting system, say their redress scheme may not be in place until the autumn.

Former sub-postmasters and their relatives met with government representatives for an update on compensation.

While lawyers describe “positive steps”, some victims have told Sky News that they are disappointed with the timescale and described coming up against the “grinding wheels of bureaucracy”.

Capture software was an accounting system rolled out in Post Office branches between 1992 and 1999 and was likely to have caused false shortfalls.

It was the predecessor to Horizon, which led to hundreds of sub-postmasters being wrongly convicted of stealing between 1999 and 2015.

Former sub-postmaster Lee Bowerman, who was never accused of stealing but had to sell his Post Office business after using Capture, said the meeting was a “damp squib” and criticised “the grinding wheels of bureaucracy”.

He agreed that the proposed redress scheme would be “quicker than Horizon” but added “you can’t use them as a yardstick because at the end of the day …people still haven’t been paid out”.

Mr Bowerman added: “So don’t compare us to them when those schemes aren’t even fit for purpose.”

Around 100 Capture victims so far could be eligible for redress.

The scheme, however, would not apply to anyone currently convicted.

The Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC) have confirmed that they are now reviewing 27 Capture convictions.

Victims were told the government is considering a separate “fast track” redress scheme for anyone who has their conviction overturned in the future.

Lee Bowerman had to sell his Post Office business after using Capture
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Lee Bowerman had to sell his Post Office business after using Capture

Steve Marston’s case is among those being considered after he was convicted of stealing from his branch in 1996 following shortfalls of nearly £80,000.

“I don’t think it would be human nature not to be disappointed that [the redress scheme] is not being sorted out in the next couple of days even,” he said.

“But we are talking about the government, aren’t we? They’ve got to fill in a form in triplicate, get it rubber stamped three times and that’s for a box of paper clips,” he added.

“I mean it is what it is, we have got to roll with it, stick in there and keep pushing as much as we can”.

Clare Brennan, daughter of Peter Lloyd-Halt, who was a sub-postmaster accused of stealing whilst using Capture, said she and her mother Agnes found the meeting “positive”.

She went on to describe a “weight being lifted” after they were told that it had been officially recognised that Mr Lloyd-Halt had worked for the Post Office.

The family say all Mr Lloyd-Halt’s documents and evidence have been lost and it’s been a challenge to their case.

Lawyers for victims also described “positive steps” towards a new compensation scheme, following the government meeting.

Read more:
Sub-postmasters ‘still going through hell’
What is the Horizon Post Office scandal?

Agnes Lloyd-Holt and Clare Brennan
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Agnes Lloyd-Holt and Clare Brennan

Neil Hudgell, of Hudgell Solicitors, said that they were “reassured by the Department for Business and Trade today that good progress is being made with learnings taken from previous Post Office compensation schemes to form this one”.

He added that “there is a clear willingness to do right by those who have suffered at the hands of the Post Office in relation to Capture”.

“We always appreciate that redress can never come quick enough for these victims and we push as much as we can to take things forward.”

A spokesperson from the Department for Business and Trade said: “Officials met with postmasters today as part of the government’s commitment to develop an effective and fair redress process that takes into account the circumstances of those affected by Capture.

“Ensuring postmasters are treated with dignity and respect is our absolute priority and we will continue to update on the development of the redress mechanism as it progresses.”

The next meeting with Capture victims is due in April.

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