Five million more households yet to feel full rate hike burden, Bank of England warns
The Bank of England has said that UK households and businesses have been “resilient” in the face of rising interest rates – but repeated previous warnings that the full effect of higher interest rates was yet to come through.
Unveiling its latest Financial Stability Report – which is published twice yearly – the Bank said that household finances remained “stretched by increased living costs and higher interest rates, some of which has yet to be reflected in higher mortgage repayments.”
The Bank, which raised its main policy rate 14 consecutive times between December 2021 and August this year to the current 15-year high of 5.25%, said that, because most mortgages taken out over recent years had been at a fixed interest rate, higher interest rates tended to have a lagged effect on households with a mortgage.
It said that around 55% of mortgage borrower accounts, around five million, had repriced since interest rates began to rise in late 2021.
But it warned: “Higher rates are expected to affect around five million [further] households by 2026.
“For the typical owner-occupier mortgagor rolling off a fixed rate between [April to June] 2023 and the end of 2026, their monthly mortgage repayments are projected to increase by around £240, or around 39%.
“As higher mortgage rates continue to flow through to UK households, the average debt servicing burden will increase.”
The report noted that, although average quoted mortgage rates had come down since the Bank’s last Financial Stability Report in July this year, they remained “higher than in the recent past”.
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People are waiting for mortgage rates to drop
Andrew Bailey, the governor, emphasised that the UK banking sector remained well capitalised and had come through the Bank’s recent stress tests well.
He added: “If economic and financial conditions were to materially worsen for households and businesses, our banking sector has the capacity to support them.”
He said that there was evidence that net interest margins (the spread between what banks charge borrowers and pay depositors and a key driver of bank profits) had peaked.
The governor highlighted that, “thank goodness”, despite higher mortgage costs there had not been a big increase in home repossessions as in the past.
He added: “The financial system is much better placed to support borrowers. It’s a benefit of financial stability that the system is able to take these actions. And that’s a good thing, a very good thing.”
Mr Bailey said that, while UK households and businesses had remained resilient in the face of higher borrowing costs, the Bank had noticed an increase in arrears among home owners – both those living in their own homes with a mortgage and among buy-to-let landlords.
He said that the Bank was “very alert” to the issue of renters and particularly in view of the fact that, with home ownership in decline, renters now formed a larger proportion of the population and also tended to be at the lower end of the income scale.
He went on: “There is obviously a financial stability lens on this and it comes through the buy-to-let market.”
Asked about the way in which some borrowers were responding to higher mortgage rates Sarah Breedon, the deputy governor responsible for financial stability, said the Bank had noted an increased uptake, over time, of long-dated mortgages of up to 35 years and particularly among younger borrowers.
She added: “The more important thing is lending into retirement when people might not have the income [to cover mortgage payments]. We don’t judge it as a financial stability risk but it is something we are watching.”
Mr Bailey said that, among corporates, there was also evidence of some arrears building up and in particular among small and medium sized businesses.
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How is the mortgage crisis affecting you?
But the report noted that the share of corporates at higher risk had fallen from its pandemic peak and pointed out that the bulk of UK corporate debt on fixed rates was due to mature in or after 2025.
The governor added: “We judge that the UK corporate sector as a whole has remained resilient.”
Further afield, Mr Bailey said that the overall risk environment remained challenging, singling out the Chinese economy – where many parts of the property sector remain under strain – as a particular risk for the global economy. He added that the “tragic events in the Middle East” had also contributed to geopolitical uncertainty.
The governor also sounded a warning on vulnerabilities in so-called ‘non-bank’ finance – services such as loans and credit which are not provided by banks but by other institutions, such as insurers, venture capital firms and currency exchanges.
In particular, he highlighted market-based finance – the provision of types of corporate credit, such as high-yield bonds and leveraged loans – where he said risks remained significant and, in some cases, had increased since the Bank’s last report in July.
He added: “There are now larger imbalances in the market in derivatives for US government debt – a key instrument in the financial system.”
The governor said that this could contribute to market volatility if hedge funds needed to unwind their positions in such instruments rapidly and noted that sharp movements in the prices of such assets could lead to wider dislocations as was shown during the LDI crisis which followed Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget in September last year.
The report also revealed that, since July, the Bank’s financial policy committee had been briefed on the continued adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning in financial services and their potential financial stability implications.
Mr Bailey said: “I don’t pretend to be an expert on AI, because I am not, but when I speak to people who are they make the point [on] the complexity of the code behind it and the extent to which it is understood.
“It obviously has tremendous potential and particularly to improve productivity which would be a welcome thing.”
The governor also paid tribute to Alistair Darling, the former Chancellor, who died last week. He said Lord Darling was “wise, kind and had an absolutely wicked sense of humour.”
Billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe has told Sky News that Britain is ready for a change of government after scolding the Conservatives over their handling of the economy and immigration after Brexit.
While insisting his petrochemicals conglomerate INEOS is apolitical, Sir Jim backed Brexit and spent last weekend with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer at Manchester United – the football club he now runs as minority owner.
“I’m sure Keir will do a very good job at running the country – I have no questions about that,” Sir Jim said in an exclusive interview.
“There’s no question that the Conservatives have had a good run,” he added. “I think most of the country probably feels it’s time for a change. And I sort of get that, really.”
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Sir Jim was a prominent backer of leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum but now has issues with how Brexit was delivered by Tory prime ministers.
“Brexit sort of unfortunately didn’t turn out as people anticipated because… Brexit was largely about immigration,” Sir Jim said.
“That was the biggest component of that vote. People were getting fed up with the influx of the city of Southampton coming in every year. I think last year it was two times Southampton.
“I mean, no small island like the UK could cope with vast numbers of people coming into the UK.
“I mean, it just overburdens the National Health Service, the traffic service, the police, everybody.
“The country was designed for 55 or 60 million people and we’ve got 70 million people and all the services break down as a consequence.
“That’s what Brexit was all about and nobody’s implemented that. They just keep talking about it. But nothing’s been done, which is why I think we’ll finish up with the change of government.”
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Sir Jim’s mission to succeed at ‘the one challenge the UK has never brought home’
UK needs to get ‘sharper on the business front’
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated an election is due this year but Monaco-based Sir Jim is unimpressed by the Conservatives’ handling of the economy.
“The UK does need to get a bit sharper on the business front,” he said. “I think the biggest objective for the government is to create growth in the economy.
“There’s two parts of the economy, there’s the services side of the economy and there’s the manufacturing side. And the manufacturing, unfortunately, has been sliding away now for the last 25 years.
“We were very similar in scale to Germany probably 25 years ago.
“But today we’re just a fraction of where Germany is and I think that isn’t healthy for the British economy… particularly when you think the north of England is very manufacturing based, and that talks to things like energy competitiveness, it talks to things like, why do you put an immensely high tax on the North Sea?
“That just disincentivises people from finding hydrocarbons in the North Sea, in energy.
“And what we need is competitive energy. So I mean, in America, in the energy world, in the oil and gas world, they just apply a corporation tax to the oil and gas companies, which is about 30%. And in the UK we’ve got this tax of 75% because we want to kill off the oil and gas companies.
“But if we don’t have competitive energy, we’re not going to have a healthy manufacturing industry. And that just makes no sense to me at all. No.”
‘We’re apolitical’
Asked about INEOS donating to Labour, Sir Jim replied: “We’re apolitical, INEOS.
“We just want a successful manufacturing sector in the UK and we’ve talked to the government about that. It’s pretty clear about our views.”
Sir Jim was keener to talk about the economy and politics than his role at struggling Manchester United, which he bought a 27.7% stake in from the American Glazer family in February – giving him an even higher business profile.
Old Trafford stadium in Manchester. Pic: AP
Push for stadium of the North
He is continuing to push for public funds to regenerate Old Trafford and the surrounding areas despite no apparent political support being forthcoming. Sir Keir was hosted at the stadium for a Premier League match last weekend just as heavy rain exposed the fragility of the ageing venue.
“There’s a very good case, in my view, for having a stadium of the North, which would serve the northern part of the country in that arena of football,” Sir Jim said. “If you look at the number of Champions League the North West has won, it’s 10. London has won two.
“And yet everybody from the North has to get down to London to watch a big football match. And there should be one [a large stadium] in the North, in my view.
“But it’s also important for the southern side of Manchester, you know, to regenerate.
“It’s the sort of second capital of the country where the Industrial Revolution began.
“But if you have a regeneration project, you need a nucleus or a regeneration project and having that world-class stadium there, I think would provide the impetus to regenerate that region.”
Marks & Spencer’s website and app has not been working for several hours, with a message telling shoppers “you can’t shop with us right now”.
“We’re working hard to be back online as soon as possible,” it adds.
All the menus and images have disappeared apart from one showing a model in a green jacket.
Customers trying to use the app got the message: “Sorry you can’t shop through the app right now. We’re busy making some planned changes, but will be back soon.”
The site is understood to have been down for several hours.
Replying to one customer on X, the retailer said: “We’re experiencing some technical issues but we are working on it.”
M&S is the latest high street name to have technical issues – last month some Sainsbury’s shoppers had problems with their online orders.
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The outage comes a few days before M&S is expected to reveal a big jump in annual profits.
It’s been a successful year for the brand, with strong sales across the business following a turnaround plan that has included store closures and cost cutting.
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