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JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon sounded the alarm on a possible recession, warning Wall Street to prepare for the threat of rising interest rates even as inflation slows.

A lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary. Be prepared, Dimon said at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York on Wednesday.

Interest rates may go up and that might lead to recession,” he added, according to CNN Business.

Dimon’s comments suggest that he doesn’t forecast a rate cut following the next two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 11 and 12.

Federal Reserve officials have unanimously decided to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at its current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, for the past two policy meetings with little indication that theyll slash interest rates moving forward.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell even reiterated during his closely watched speech during the International Monetary Funds policy panel in Washington, DC, earlier this month: “If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.”

Economists have been divided on what central bankers’ next move is — and whether it means the US economy is in for a soft landing, which will see it skirting a recession, or a hard landing.

“Im cautious about the economy,” Dimon said, per CNN.

The 67-year-old investment banking boss also noted that “inflation is hurting people,” and in a moment of positivity, pointed to the resilient labor market.

Representatives for Dimon at JPMorgan declined to comment.

Economists have cited October’s weaker-than-expected jobs report — when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 150,000 positions — as a signal that an interest rate cut is forthcoming.

The unemployment rate is now 3.9%, the agency said, above the Feds 3.8% year-end forecast.

Inflation has also trended weaker than central bankers estimates as Americans see some reprieve from the Feds aggressive tightening cycle, which began in March 2022, when rates were between 0.25% and 0.5%.

By June of last year, inflation peaked at 9.1% and rates have since increased at a pace not seen in 40 years.

The Fed hasn’t cut interest rates in over a year despite falling inflation, which slowed to 3.2% in October, according to the Consumer Price Index, which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services.

The figure marked a drop from Septembers 3.7% advance, though it remains well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which the US economy hasnt seen since 2012.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV last month, Dimon suggested that Americans are in for an interest-rate hike as steep as 1.5 percentage points, to a staggering 7%, which would mark the highest federal funds rate sine December 1990.

Dimon’s warnings of a recession echo those of hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, who said just this week that the Fed needs to slash interest rates as early as the first quarter in order to avert a real risk of a hard landing for the US economy.

Ackman told Bloomberg that if the Fed keeps rates around the 5.5% range while inflation trends below 3%, thats a very high real rate of interest.

Whats happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines, said the Pershing Square Capital Management founder.

I think theres a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesnt start cutting rates pretty soon, Ackman added, per Bloomberg, noting that hes seen evidence of a weakening economy.

Traders, however, arent fully pricing in a rate cut until the end of 2024s second quarter, in June, Bloomberg reported, citing swaps market data.

The chance of a cut happening in May is some 80%, the data showed.

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Crypto regulation needs more technologists and fewer suits

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Crypto regulation needs more technologists and fewer suits

Crypto regulation needs more technologists and fewer suits

The crypto community is missing the opportunity to reimagine rather than transpose rulemaking for financial services. More technologists must join the regulatory conversation.

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Whitehall officials tried to cover up grooming scandal in 2011, Dominic Cummings says

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Whitehall officials tried to cover up grooming scandal in 2011, Dominic Cummings says

Whitehall officials tried to convince Michael Gove to go to court to cover up the grooming scandal in 2011, Sky News can reveal.

Dominic Cummings, who was working for Lord Gove at the time, has told Sky News that officials in the Department for Education (DfE) wanted to help efforts by Rotherham Council to stop a national newspaper from exposing the scandal.

In an interview with Sky News, Mr Cummings said that officials wanted a “total cover-up”.

Politics latest: Grooming gangs findings unveiled

The revelation shines a light on the institutional reluctance of some key officials in central government to publicly highlight the grooming gang scandal.

In 2011, Rotherham Council approached the Department for Education asking for help following inquiries by The Times. The paper’s then chief reporter, the late Andrew Norfolk, was asking about sexual abuse and trafficking of children in Rotherham.

The council went to Lord Gove’s Department for Education for help. Officials considered the request and then recommended to Lord Gove’s office that the minister back a judicial review which might, if successful, stop The Times publishing the story.

Lord Gove rejected the request on the advice of Mr Cummings. Sources have independently confirmed Mr Cummings’ account.

Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA
Image:
Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA

Mr Cummings told Sky News: “Officials came to me in the Department of Education and said: ‘There’s this Times journalist who wants to write the story about these gangs. The local authority wants to judicially review it and stop The Times publishing the story’.

“So I went to Michael Gove and said: ‘This council is trying to actually stop this and they’re going to use judicial review. You should tell the council that far from siding with the council to stop The Times you will write to the judge and hand over a whole bunch of documents and actually blow up the council’s JR (judicial review).’

“Some officials wanted a total cover-up and were on the side of the council…

“They wanted to help the local council do the cover-up and stop The Times’ reporting, but other officials, including in the DfE private office, said this is completely outrageous and we should blow it up. Gove did, the judicial review got blown up, Norfolk stories ran.”

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Grooming gangs victim speaks out

The judicial review wanted by officials would have asked a judge to decide about the lawfulness of The Times’ publication plans and the consequences that would flow from this information entering the public domain.

A second source told Sky News that the advice from officials was to side with Rotherham Council and its attempts to stop publication of details it did not want in the public domain.

One of the motivations cited for stopping publication would be to prevent the identities of abused children entering the public domain.

There was also a fear that publication could set back the existing attempts to halt the scandal, although incidents of abuse continued for many years after these cases.

Sources suggested that there is also a natural risk aversion amongst officials to publicity of this sort.

Read more on grooming gangs:
What we do and don’t know from the data
A timeline of the scandal

Mr Cummings, who ran the Vote Leave Brexit campaign and was Boris Johnson’s right-hand man in Downing Street, has long pushed for a national inquiry into grooming gangs to expose failures at the heart of government.

He said the inquiry, announced today, “will be a total s**tshow for Whitehall because it will reveal how much Whitehall worked to try and cover up the whole thing.”

He also described Mr Johnson, with whom he has a long-standing animus, as a “moron’ for saying that money spent on inquiries into historic child sexual abuse had been “spaffed up the wall”.

Asked by Sky News political correspondent Liz Bates why he had not pushed for a public inquiry himself when he worked in Number 10 in 2019-20, Mr Cummings said Brexit and then COVID had taken precedence.

“There are a million things that I wanted to do but in 2019 we were dealing with the constitutional crisis,” he said.

The Department for Education and Rotherham Council have been approached for comment.

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Whitehall officials tried to cover up grooming scandal in 2011, Dominic Cummings says

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Whitehall officials tried to cover up grooming scandal in 2011, Dominic Cummings says

Whitehall officials tried to convince Michael Gove to go to court to cover up the grooming scandal in 2011, Sky News can reveal.

Dominic Cummings, who was working for Lord Gove at the time, has told Sky News that officials in the Department for Education (DfE) wanted to help efforts by Rotherham Council to stop a national newspaper from exposing the scandal.

In an interview with Sky News, Mr Cummings said that officials wanted a “total cover-up”.

Politics latest: Grooming gangs findings unveiled

The revelation shines a light on the institutional reluctance of some key officials in central government to publicly highlight the grooming gang scandal.

In 2011, Rotherham Council approached the Department for Education asking for help following inquiries by The Times. The paper’s then chief reporter, the late Andrew Norfolk, was asking about sexual abuse and trafficking of children in Rotherham.

The council went to Lord Gove’s Department for Education for help. Officials considered the request and then recommended to Lord Gove’s office that the minister back a judicial review which might, if successful, stop The Times publishing the story.

Lord Gove rejected the request on the advice of Mr Cummings. Sources have independently confirmed Mr Cummings’ account.

Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA
Image:
Education Secretary Michael Gove in 2011. Pic: PA

Mr Cummings told Sky News: “Officials came to me in the Department of Education and said: ‘There’s this Times journalist who wants to write the story about these gangs. The local authority wants to judicially review it and stop The Times publishing the story’.

“So I went to Michael Gove and said: ‘This council is trying to actually stop this and they’re going to use judicial review. You should tell the council that far from siding with the council to stop The Times you will write to the judge and hand over a whole bunch of documents and actually blow up the council’s JR (judicial review).’

“Some officials wanted a total cover-up and were on the side of the council…

“They wanted to help the local council do the cover-up and stop The Times’ reporting, but other officials, including in the DfE private office, said this is completely outrageous and we should blow it up. Gove did, the judicial review got blown up, Norfolk stories ran.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Grooming gangs victim speaks out

The judicial review wanted by officials would have asked a judge to decide about the lawfulness of The Times’ publication plans and the consequences that would flow from this information entering the public domain.

A second source told Sky News that the advice from officials was to side with Rotherham Council and its attempts to stop publication of details it did not want in the public domain.

One of the motivations cited for stopping publication would be to prevent the identities of abused children entering the public domain.

There was also a fear that publication could set back the existing attempts to halt the scandal, although incidents of abuse continued for many years after these cases.

Sources suggested that there is also a natural risk aversion amongst officials to publicity of this sort.

Read more on grooming gangs:
What we do and don’t know from the data
A timeline of the scandal

Mr Cummings, who ran the Vote Leave Brexit campaign and was Boris Johnson’s right-hand man in Downing Street, has long pushed for a national inquiry into grooming gangs to expose failures at the heart of government.

He said the inquiry, announced today, “will be a total s**tshow for Whitehall because it will reveal how much Whitehall worked to try and cover up the whole thing.”

He also described Mr Johnson, with whom he has a long-standing animus, as a “moron’ for saying that money spent on inquiries into historic child sexual abuse had been “spaffed up the wall”.

Asked by Sky News political correspondent Liz Bates why he had not pushed for a public inquiry himself when he worked in Number 10 in 2019-20, Mr Cummings said Brexit and then COVID had taken precedence.

“There are a million things that I wanted to do but in 2019 we were dealing with the constitutional crisis,” he said.

The Department for Education and Rotherham Council have been approached for comment.

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