Economists forecast 50% recession odds amid stark economic slowdown in 2024

Published

11 months ago

December 7, 2023

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The US economy is in for a sharp slowdown in 2024 as a closely watched survey of top economists foresees stubbornly high inflation, a rise in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession.

A slew of headwinds will slow the current quarter’s Gross Domestic Product — a comprehensive measure of economic activity and performance — to a pace of 1.2%, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ latest Outlook Survey released on Monday.

That’s versus a 5.2% annualized rate during the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported — the fastest rate of expansion since the end of 2021. Adjusted for inflation, real GDP increased 2.1%.

Panelists foresee the GDP slowing even further, to 1%, between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, NABE President and Morgan Stanley chief economist Ellen Zentner said in the survey, which was earlier reported on by Fox Business.

On the heels of the dismal data, of the 30-plus economists surveyed, one in four said they’re now forecasting a recession, assigning a probability of at least 50%, NABE reported.

The last time the US experienced a financial crisis was in 2008. At the time, of the economic downturn, the federal funds rate was 5.25% while inflation rose 4.1% on an annual basis, per the Consumer Price Index.

Now, inflation isn’t slowing as quickly as the Fed has hoped, and remains well above central bankers’ goal at 3.2%. That’s a trend that will likely remain entrenched during the coming year, according to the survey.

“Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation — excluding food and energy costs — but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Boards 2% target before year-end 2024,” said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month released a weaker-than-expected October jobs report, when the economy only added 150,000 positions — as the unemployment rate came in above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast, at 3.9%.

When November job data comes out on Friday, employers are expected to have added 180,000 positions, while unemployment is expected to hold at 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow forecasting model attributed the impending economic slowdown to a decline in construction spending and manufacturing as labor costs have surged and productivity has waned.

In New York, construction has been hindered by the precipitous 421a property tax exemption, which was given to real estate developers building new multifamily residential housing buildings in New York City before it expired in June 2022.

A lack of 421a, coupled with high borrowing rates, have pumped the brakes on new development.

An economic slowdown is also likely on the horizon as Taylor Swift’s blockbuster concert, “Eras Tour,” leaves the US.

Since Swift’s three-hour show kicked off in March in Arizona, loyal Swifties have shelled out so much for tickets and hotel rooms that the show has spurred growth in the economy of each of the cities its stopped at.

In Pittsburgh, an estimated 24,000 hotel rooms were booked at premium prices by fans making the Eras Tour pilgrimage back in June for the three-hour set, while tourists drummed up more traffic than usual for local businesses, from parking garages to restaurants.

While Swift’s concert continues its 100-plus-city trot around the globe, Beyonce’s “Renaissance” concert has also drawn a slew of fanfare as its embarked on a 56-stop world tour.

The economy will surely miss the so-called “Taylor Swift effect” after the 33-year-old songstress returns stateside to take her final Eras Tour bow in Indianapolis, Ind., in November 2024.

Beyonce, meanwhile, concluded her Renaissance tour on Oct. 1 in Kansas City, Mo.

Entertainment

Davina McCall out of surgery after operation to remove brain tumour

Published

3 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Davina McCall out of surgery after operation to remove brain tumour

Davina McCall’s partner has said she is out of surgery after undergoing an operation to remove a brain tumour.

The 57-year-old television presenter had revealed in a video posted on Instagram earlier today she had a benign brain tumour, a colloid cyst, which she described as “very rare”.

She said the chances of having it were “three in a million,” and she had discovered it a few months ago, after a company offered her a health scan in return for giving a menopause talk.

She also announced she would be having the surgery this evening.

Now her partner – hairdresser Michael Douglas – has posted on social media to say the operation went well.

He said: “Hey all. Davina is out of surgery and according to the surgeon it was textbook! She’s currently recovering in ICU as a precaution, as you can imagine she’s utterly exhausted.

“Thanks so much for all the love from everyone on here… it’s powerful stuff, we are super grateful.”

McCall earlier said the tumour’s discovery came as a shock.

She said: “I slightly put my head in the sand for a while, and then I saw quite a few neurosurgeons, I got lots of opinions. I realised that I have to get it taken out.”

McCall described it as “big”, 14mm wide, adding: “It needs to come out, because if it grows it would be bad.”

She explained that she would have it removed via a craniotomy, describing the procedure: “They go through the top of my head here and through the two halves of my brain to the middle.

“They get the cyst, take it out, empty it, and Bob’s your uncle.”

She added before the surgery: “Say a prayer for me, I am in good spirits.”

She said she would be in hospital “for around nine days”, but during her recovery, she would be “off my phone for a while”.

Joking and smiling, she urged fans “not to worry about me”, admitting, “I’m doing that enough!”

She went on to counter that, explaining: “I’m not worrying too much, and I am in a good space, and I have all the faith in the world in my surgeon and his team, and I’m handing the reins over to him. He knows what he’s doing, and I’m going to do the getting better bit after.”

She signed off saying, “see you on the other side”.

What is a benign brain tumour?

According to the NHS website, a benign (non-cancerous) brain tumour is a mass of cells that grows relatively slowly in the brain.

They are unlikely to spread, but are still serious and can be life-threatening.

When successfully removed, a tumour will not usually return at all, but if it cannot be completely removed it may grow back, and so will be monitored using scans or treated with radiotherapy.

Many people return to normal activities following successful surgery, but some are left with persistent problems, such as seizures and difficulties with speech and walking.

Non-cancerous brain tumours are more common in people over the age of 50, and symptoms include headaches, blackouts, behavioural changes and loss of consciousness.

Davina McCall says her tumour is a colloid cyst – which is made up of a gelatinous material. Symptoms can include headache, vertigo, memory deficits, diplopia, behavioural disturbances, and in extreme cases, sudden death.

Celebrity friends were quick to send their support, with stars including Rylan, Alan Carr and Holly Willoughby sending love.

According to the NHS, non-cancerous brain tumours are slow-growing and unlikely to spread, but are still serious and can be life-threatening.

McCall rose to fame presenting on MTV in the mid-1990s, and later on Channel 4’s Streetmate, before becoming a household name as the host of Big Brother from 2000 to 2010.

She’s gone on to present programmes across the networks, and currently presents ITV dating show My Mum, Your Dad.

Last year, McCall was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) in the 2023 Birthday Honours for services to broadcasting.

In recent years, McCall has spoken regularly on women’s health and the effects of menopause in a bid to break taboos around the subject. Her 2022 book, Menopausing, won book of the year at the British Book Awards.

The same year, McCall fronted the Channel 4 documentary Davina McCall: Sex, Mind And The Menopause, and told the BBC that the perimenopausal symptoms caused her difficulties multi-tasking and she considered that she had a brain tumour or Alzheimer’s disease at the time.

The presenter has previously raised money for Cancer Research UK by running for Race For Life in honour of her late sister, Caroline Baday, who died from lung cancer in 2012 at the age of 50.

Married twice, McCall has three children, two daughters and a son, with her second husband, presenter Matthew Robertson.

She has lived with Douglas since 2022, and they present a weekly lifestyle podcast together, Making The Cut.

Entertainment

Stars send best wishes to Davina McCall after presenter reveals rare brain tumour

Published

3 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Stars send best wishes to Davina McCall after presenter reveals rare brain tumour

Stars have rushed to share their support after Davina McCall revealed she’s undergoing surgery to remove a rare brain tumour.

The presenter shared the news in a short Instagram video, telling fans the benign tumour is called a colloid cyst and is around 14mm wide.

McCall explained it “needed to come out, because if it grows it would be bad,” and described a procedure called a craniotomy which would remove the cyst through the top of her head.

The former Big Brother host said she was “in good spirits,” and would be in hospital “for around nine days” following the procedure.

It’s not clear on which day McCall’s surgery is scheduled, or if she has had the procedure yet.

Quick to share his love with the 57-year-old star, presenter Rylan wrote: “We’re all thinking of you beautiful,” while comedian Alan Carr wrote: “Big love my darling!!”

Ex-This Morning presenter Holly Willoughby wrote: “I’m sending you all the love and then a whole lot more,” and singer Ashley Roberts added: “All the love gorgeous one!! Sending all the healing vibes. Love you!!”

Former Popstars judge and presenter Nicki Chapman wrote: “You and I have chatted about this day… you are in amazing hands with your surgeon and the team. Everyone loves you.

“Thank you for not only being a brave girl but for sharing your condition. You will help sooooo many other people. big hugs. 30-second rule. See you soon N xx.”

Actress and chef Lisa Faulkner wrote: “Sending all my love to you. Best wishes and all positive prayers for a speedy recovery”.

McCall’s current partner, hairdresser Michael Douglas, has said he will be sharing updates from her account while she is “off-grid” and recovering, assuring fans the presenter is “in great shape and in very good hands”.

Other celebrities to share positive thoughts included Stacey Dooley, Donna Air, Helen Skelton, Denise Van Outen and Kimberly Wyatt.

McCall rose to fame presenting on MTV in the mid-1990s, and later on Channel 4’s Streetmate, before becoming a household name as the host of Big Brother from 2000 to 2010.

She’s gone on to present programmes across the networks, and last year was appointed Member of the Order of the British Empire (MBE) in the 2023 Birthday Honours for services to broadcasting.

She has three children with her second husband, presenter Matthew Robertson.

Entertainment

And the host of the Oscars is… Conan O’Brien

Published

3 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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And the host of the Oscars is… Conan O'Brien

Conan O’Brien has been announced as the host of next year’s Oscars.

It’s the Emmy Award-winning comedian’s first time heading up the ceremony, which is Hollywood‘s most high-profile showbiz event.

“America demanded it and now it’s happening: Taco Bell’s new Cheesy Chalupa Supreme. In other news, I’m hosting the Oscars,” O’Brien said in a statement.

He also shared a spoof short video on social media, showing him clasping an Oscar statuette and thanking the Academy for his Oscar, before clarifying he was hosting the show rather than receiving an award.

The 61-year-old TV presenter, writer, producer and comedian is best known for hosting the late-night talk shows Late Night with Conan O’Brien, The Tonight Show with Conan O’Brien and Conan.

Before fronting his own self-named shows, he wrote for the enormously popular US late-night sketch show Saturday Night Live and the long-running satirical cartoon The Simpsons.

Recently fronting a travelogue, Conan O’Brien Must Go, he currently hosts the podcast Conan O’Brien Needs a Friend.

Over his career, he has won five Primetime Emmys and earned 31 nominations for his work.

The last two years of the Oscars were hosted by comedian Jimmy Kimmel, who recently became emotional about Donald Trump’s re-election, and before that Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes shared the stage.

Between 2019 and 2021 the Oscars went without a main presenter.

Oscars executive producers Raj Kapoor and Katy Mullan said in a statement: “Conan has all the qualities of a great Oscars host, he is incredibly witty, charismatic and funny and has proven himself to be a master of live event television.

“We are so looking forward to working with him to deliver a fresh, exciting and celebratory show for Hollywood’s biggest night.”