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The US economy is in for a sharp slowdown in 2024 as a closely watched survey of top economists foresees stubbornly high inflation, a rise in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession.

A slew of headwinds will slow the current quarter’s Gross Domestic Product — a comprehensive measure of economic activity and performance — to a pace of 1.2%, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ latest Outlook Survey released on Monday.

That’s versus a 5.2% annualized rate during the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported — the fastest rate of expansion since the end of 2021. Adjusted for inflation, real GDP increased 2.1%.

Panelists foresee the GDP slowing even further, to 1%, between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, NABE President and Morgan Stanley chief economist Ellen Zentner said in the survey, which was earlier reported on by Fox Business.

On the heels of the dismal data, of the 30-plus economists surveyed, one in four said they’re now forecasting a recession, assigning a probability of at least 50%, NABE reported.

The last time the US experienced a financial crisis was in 2008. At the time, of the economic downturn, the federal funds rate was 5.25% while inflation rose 4.1% on an annual basis, per the Consumer Price Index.

Now, inflation isn’t slowing as quickly as the Fed has hoped, and remains well above central bankers’ goal at 3.2%. That’s a trend that will likely remain entrenched during the coming year, according to the survey.

“Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation — excluding food and energy costs — but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Boards 2% target before year-end 2024,” said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month released a weaker-than-expected October jobs report, when the economy only added 150,000 positions — as the unemployment rate came in above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast, at 3.9%.

When November job data comes out on Friday, employers are expected to have added 180,000 positions, while unemployment is expected to hold at 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow forecasting model attributed the impending economic slowdown to a decline in construction spending and manufacturing as labor costs have surged and productivity has waned.

In New York, construction has been hindered by the precipitous 421a property tax exemption, which was given to real estate developers building new multifamily residential housing buildings in New York City before it expired in June 2022.

A lack of 421a, coupled with high borrowing rates, have pumped the brakes on new development.

An economic slowdown is also likely on the horizon as Taylor Swift’s blockbuster concert, “Eras Tour,” leaves the US.

Since Swift’s three-hour show kicked off in March in Arizona, loyal Swifties have shelled out so much for tickets and hotel rooms that the show has spurred growth in the economy of each of the cities its stopped at.

In Pittsburgh, an estimated 24,000 hotel rooms were booked at premium prices by fans making the Eras Tour pilgrimage back in June for the three-hour set, while tourists drummed up more traffic than usual for local businesses, from parking garages to restaurants.

While Swift’s concert continues its 100-plus-city trot around the globe, Beyonce’s “Renaissance” concert has also drawn a slew of fanfare as its embarked on a 56-stop world tour.

The economy will surely miss the so-called “Taylor Swift effect” after the 33-year-old songstress returns stateside to take her final Eras Tour bow in Indianapolis, Ind., in November 2024.

Beyonce, meanwhile, concluded her Renaissance tour on Oct. 1 in Kansas City, Mo.

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Business

AA owners line up banks to steer path towards £4.5bn exit

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May 24, 2025

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AA owners line up banks to steer path towards £4.5bn exit

The owners of the AA, Britain’s biggest breakdown recovery service, are lining up bankers to steer a path towards a sale or stock market listing next year which could value the company at well over £4bn.

Sky News has learnt that JP Morgan and Rothschild are in pole position to be appointed to conduct a review of the AA’s strategic options following a recovery in its financial and operating performance.

The AA, which has more than 16 million customers, including 3.3 million individual members, is jointly owned by three private equity firms: Towerbrook Capital Partners, Warburg Pincus and Stonepeak.

Insiders said this weekend that any form of corporate transaction involving the AA was not imminent or likely to take place for at least 12 months.

They added that there was no fixed timetable and that a deal might not take place until after 2026.

Nevertheless, the impending appointment of advisers underlines the renewed confidence its shareholders now have in its prospects, with the business having recorded four consecutive years of customer, revenue and earnings growth.

A strategic review of the AA’s options is likely to encompass an outright sale, listing on the public markets or the disposal of a further minority stake.

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Stonepeak invested £450m into the company in a combination of common and preferred equity, in a transaction which completed in July last year.

That deal was undertaken at an enterprise valuation – comprising the AA’s equity and debt – of approximately £4bn, the shareholders said at the time.

Given the company’s growth and the valuation at which Stonepeak invested, any future transaction would be unlikely to take place with a price of less than £4.5bn, according to bankers.

The AA, which has a large insurance division as well as its roadside recovery operations, remains weighed down by a substantial – albeit declining – debt burden.

Its most recent set of financial results disclosed that it had £1.9bn of net debt, which it is gradually paying down as profitability improves.

AA owners over the years

The company has been through a succession of owners during the last 25 years.

In 1999, it was bought by Centrica, the owner of British Gas, for £1.1bn.

It was then sold five years later to CVC Capital Partners and Permira, two buyout firms, for £1.75bn, and sat under the corporate umbrella Acromas alongside Saga for a decade.

The AA listed on the London Stock Exchange in 2014, but its shares endured a miserable run, being taken private nearly seven years later at little more than 15% of its value on flotation.

Under the ownership of Towerbrook and Warburg Pincus, the company embarked on a long-term transformation plan, recruiting a new leadership team in the form of chairman Rick Haythornthwaite – who also chairs NatWest Group – and chief executive Jakob Pfaudler.

For many years, the AA styled itself as “Britain’s fourth emergency service”, competing with fierce rival the RAC for market share in the breakdown recovery sector.

Founded in 1905 by a quartet of driving enthusiasts, the AA passed 100,000 members in 1934, before reaching the one million mark in 1950.

Last year, it attended 3.5 million breakdowns on Britain’s roads, with 2,700 patrols wearing its uniform.

The company also operates the largest driving school business in the UK under the AA and BSM brands.

In the past, it has explored a sale of its insurance arm, which also has millions of customers, at various points but is not actively doing so now.

By recruiting a third major shareholder last, the AA mirrored a deal struck in 2021 by the RAC.

The RAC’s then owners – CVC Capital Partners and the Singaporean state fund GIC – brought the technology-focused private equity firm, Silver Lake, in as another major investor.

A spokesman for the AA declined to comment on Saturday.

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Judge overturns fraud convictions in Mango Markets exploit case

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May 24, 2025

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Judge overturns fraud convictions in Mango Markets exploit case

Judge overturns fraud convictions in Mango Markets exploit case

A US federal judge has vacated key fraud and manipulation convictions against Avraham Eisenberg, the trader at the center of the case involving a $110 million exploit of the decentralized exchange Mango Markets.

On Friday, US District Judge Arun Subramanian ruled that the evidence presented at trial failed to support the jury’s conclusion that Eisenberg made materially false representations to Mango Markets.

The decision vacates Eisenberg’s convictions for commodities fraud and market manipulation and acquits him of a third charge, significantly weakening the government’s case.

Eisenberg, a self-proclaimed “applied game theorist,” was convicted in 2024 for artificially inflating the price of Mango’s MNGO token by over 1,300% in a matter of minutes and using the resulting gains as collateral to withdraw $110 million in crypto assets from the platform.

Related: US DOJ seizes $24M in crypto from accused Qakbot malware developer

Judge sides with Eisenberg

The Justice Department argued that he deceived Mango’s smart contract-based lending system, but Eisenberg’s defense maintained that he merely exploited poorly designed, permissionless code — without making any false representations.

Judge Subramanian agreed, writing that “Mango Markets was permissionless and automatic,” meaning the system couldn’t be deceived in a legal sense. “There was insufficient evidence of falsity,” the judge added, siding with Eisenberg’s interpretation of DeFi mechanics.

Judge overturns fraud convictions in Mango Markets exploit case
US judge siding with Eisenberg on nature of the exploit. Source: Bwbx.io

The judge also rejected prosecutors’ argument that the case should be heard in New York. Eisenberg was in Puerto Rico at the time of the trades, and the court found that no meaningful activity tied to the alleged crime occurred in New York.

The DOJ had cited a Poughkeepsie-based Mango user and a third-party vendor in Manhattan, but the judge ruled these were not enough to establish proper venue.

The US government must now decide whether to refile the vacated charges, though the Trump administration has recently signaled a reduced focus on crypto enforcement. Eisenberg still faces civil suits from both the SEC and CFTC.

While this ruling clears Eisenberg in the Mango Markets case, he remains behind bars.

Related: Mango Markets exploiter sentenced to over 4 years on child abuse material charges

Eisenberg charged with child pornography

In a separate case, Eisenberg was sentenced to nearly four years in prison on May 1 after pleading guilty to possessing child pornography — a charge stemming from unrelated evidence uncovered during his arrest.

In December 2022, US federal law enforcement authorities arrested Eisenberg in Puerto Rico. FBI officials charged the hacker with one count of commodities fraud and one count of commodities manipulation.

A jury found Eisenberg guilty of wire fraud, commodities fraud, and commodities manipulation in April 2024. The defense argued that the exploit was not a cybercrime and represented a “successful and legal trading strategy.”

Magazine: Crypto scam hub expose stunt goes viral, Kakao detects 70K scam apps: Asia Express

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Sports

Braves’ Acuña homers on 1st pitch after year away

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May 24, 2025

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Braves' Acuña homers on 1st pitch after year away

  • ESPN News Services

May 23, 2025, 08:12 PM ET

ATLANTA — Ronald Acuña Jr. crushed his first pitch 467 feet for a home run in his dramatic return to the Atlanta Braves on Friday night, almost one year after he tore his left ACL.

Acuña, in his customary leadoff position in the lineup, turned on a fastball from San Diego Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta and sent the ball into the seats in left-center. Acuña hesitated briefly on his jog around the bases for a shuffle step.

The homer by Acuña had an exit velocity of 115.5 mph. It was the hardest hit ball by a Braves player this season.

Acuña added a single in his next at-bat and also enjoyed a defensive highlight, throwing out Elias Díaz at second base in the eighth following Díaz’s single.

But San Diego’s Manny Machado hit a tiebreaking homer off Raisel Iglesias in the ninth inning to overcome Acuña’s homer and beat the Braves 2-1 to end a six-game losing streak.

Acuña said after the game “I had a feeling” about hitting a homer in his return.

When asked if he meant he had a feeling about a first-pitch homer, Acuña said: “Exactly how it happened. … To me that’s just the culmination of all the work I put in.”

Infielder Orlando Arcia, a 2023 All-Star, was designated for assignment to clear a roster spot for Acuña, who started in right field.

Acuña said through interpreter Franco Garcia that he was “super excited, super happy” to make his return and added “I couldn’t sleep that much” after receiving the news of his return Thursday.

Braves manager Brian Snitker announced after Thursday night’s 8-7 loss at Washington that Acuña would make his season debut Friday night.

Snitker said Friday it felt good to make out his first lineup of 2025 that included Acuña.

“He’s one of those players that you better not go get a beer or whatever because you might miss something really cool, you know?” Snitker said. “I mean, he’s that type of force, I think, in the game. I think he’s going to energize everybody. Going to energize the fans. Going to energize his teammates.”

Acuña, the 2023 NL MVP, hurt his left knee May 26, 2024, and had surgery on June 6. The 27-year-old played six games in the minors on a rehab assignment, going 6-for-15 with two home runs.

Acuña played in only 49 games last season, batting .250 with four homers, 15 RBIs, 16 stolen bases and a .716 OPS.

This is Acuña’s second comeback from a major knee injury. He tore his right ACL on July 10, 2021, and returned the following April. When asked Friday what is different about this rehabilitation process, he said, “Patience. The patience, for sure. … I just think I’m in a much better place.”

Atlanta is 24-26 after an 0-7 start.

“It’s huge,” third baseman Austin Riley said. “The talent is there. The energy he brings, having Ronald up there at the top of the lineup. … He can change a game at any point.”

Acuña was a unanimous NL MVP in 2023 when he hit .336 with 41 home runs, 106 RBIs and a league-leading 1.012 OPS. Acuña also stole 73 bases that year to become the only player with 40 homers and 70 steals in one season.

Arcia, 30, was a 2023 NL All-Star when he hit .264 with 17 homers and 65 RBIs. Arcia lost his starting job due to an inability to compensate at the plate while suffering a defensive decline. He hit only .194 in 31 at-bats this season.

Snitker said he hopes Arcia will accept a minor league assignment if he does not land another job in the majors.

“I think we all know that it’s a business,” Acuña said of Arcia getting cut. “I’m happy to be back but I’m sorry that’s the move.”

Nick Allen has taken over as the starting shortstop. Snitker said Luke Williams is the backup shortstop and Eli White, a part-time starter in the outfield, will see more time in the infield.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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