The US economy is in for a sharp slowdown in 2024 as a closely watched survey of top economists foresees stubbornly high inflation, a rise in unemployment and a 50% chance of recession.
A slew of headwinds will slow the current quarter’s Gross Domestic Product — a comprehensive measure of economic activity and performance — to a pace of 1.2%, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ latest Outlook Survey released on Monday.
That’s versus a 5.2% annualized rate during the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported — the fastest rate of expansion since the end of 2021. Adjusted for inflation, real GDP increased 2.1%.
Panelists foresee the GDP slowing even further, to 1%, between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, NABE President and Morgan Stanley chief economist Ellen Zentner said in the survey, which was earlier reported on by Fox Business.
On the heels of the dismal data, of the 30-plus economists surveyed, one in four said they’re now forecasting a recession, assigning a probability of at least 50%, NABE reported.
The last time the US experienced a financial crisis was in 2008. At the time, of the economic downturn, the federal funds rate was 5.25% while inflation rose 4.1% on an annual basis, per the Consumer Price Index.
Now, inflation isn’t slowing as quickly as the Fed has hoped, and remains well above central bankers’ goal at 3.2%. That’s a trend that will likely remain entrenched during the coming year, according to the survey.
“Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation — excluding food and energy costs — but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Boards 2% target before year-end 2024,” said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month released a weaker-than-expected October jobs report, when the economy only added 150,000 positions — as the unemployment rate came in above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast, at 3.9%.
When November job data comes out on Friday, employers are expected to have added 180,000 positions, while unemployment is expected to hold at 3.9%.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantas GDPNow forecasting model attributed the impending economic slowdown to a decline in construction spending and manufacturing as labor costs have surged and productivity has waned.
In New York, construction has been hindered by the precipitous 421a property tax exemption, which was given to real estate developers building new multifamily residential housing buildings in New York City before it expired in June 2022.
A lack of 421a, coupled with high borrowing rates, have pumped the brakes on new development.
An economic slowdown is also likely on the horizon as Taylor Swift’s blockbuster concert, “Eras Tour,” leaves the US.
Since Swift’s three-hour show kicked off in March in Arizona, loyal Swifties have shelled out so much for tickets and hotel rooms that the show has spurred growth in the economy of each of the cities its stopped at.
In Pittsburgh, an estimated 24,000 hotel rooms were booked at premium prices by fans making the Eras Tour pilgrimage back in June for the three-hour set, while tourists drummed up more traffic than usual for local businesses, from parking garages to restaurants.
While Swift’s concert continues its 100-plus-city trot around the globe, Beyonce’s “Renaissance” concert has also drawn a slew of fanfare as its embarked on a 56-stop world tour.
The economy will surely miss the so-called “Taylor Swift effect” after the 33-year-old songstress returns stateside to take her final Eras Tour bow in Indianapolis, Ind., in November 2024.
Beyonce, meanwhile, concluded her Renaissance tour on Oct. 1 in Kansas City, Mo.
Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
There is an art to becoming a full-time NHL starting goaltender.
There is art, too, in being a successful NHL backup.
It requires embracing the unknown. It’s preparing to play without actually playing. There are long stretches of no puck touches — but the expectation of delivering your best at a moment’s notice.
That kind of pressure isn’t for everyone. But Edmonton Oilers‘ goaltender Calvin Pickard isn’t just anyone. He has forged a career excelling in secondary roles, the classic blue-collar contributor exemplifying work ethic and a straightforward mentality. One day at a time. One game after another.
It’s not easy. Pickard just makes it seem that way.
“I guess you’d say he’s one of the rare goalies,” Oilers forward Evander Kane said. “He’s just a normal guy. He’s really popular in [our] room.”
And how. Pickard has helped save Edmonton from back-breaking deficits in this NHL postseason not once, but twice. And Pickard could be on track to keep the Oilers alive again as they face elimination in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final against the Florida Panthers on Tuesday (8 p.m. ET, TNT/Max).
That’s as pressure-packed as it gets, yet Pickard’s most recent efforts showcased a goalie at his peak.
Pickard entered the Final as Edmonton’s No. 2 behind Stuart Skinner. He looked on as the Oilers split the series’ first two games, and then entered troubled waters. Skinner started again in Game 3, and Florida pounded Edmonton 6-1. Coach Kris Knoblauch replaced Skinner with Pickard late in that debacle, where all Pickard could offer was cleanup duty.
Edmonton moved on to Game 4 with a 2-1 series deficit, carrying an undeniable whiff of fragility that was about to be painfully exposed.
Knoblauch passed over Pickard for Skinner as his starter. The result was disastrous. Skinner gave up three goals on 14 shots in the first period, for an .824 save percentage. Edmonton limped off the ice down 3-0 and Knoblauch had to do something.
Enter Pickard.
The 33-year-old took over Edmonton’s crease and backstopped them to a shocking comeback as the Oilers scored three second-period goals for a 3-3 tie heading into the third. Pickard was excellent holding off the Panthers’ attack with tough, critical stops that gave the Oilers a chance to offer some goal support at the other end. And Edmonton’s eventual 5-4 victory in overtime would not have been possible without Pickard’s 22 saves.
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How ‘clutch’ Calvin Pickard helped spur Oilers to Game 4 win
Steve Levy and Kevin Weekes break down the Oilers’ comeback win in overtime in Game 4 to even the series with the Panthers.
It was simple enough then that when the series returned to Edmonton tied 2-2 going into Game 5 on Saturday that Pickard would have at least 24 hours notice of his next playing time. That it was happening in the Cup Final could rattle other goalies who hadn’t actually started a full game in five weeks.
But then again, Pickard isn’t a typical backup. He’s built differently.
“I guess you could look at [Game 5] as the biggest game in my life, but the last game was the biggest game in my life until the next one,” Pickard said. “It’s rinse and repeat for me. It’s been a great journey; I’ve been to a lot of good places. Grateful that I had the chance to come to Edmonton a couple years ago, and this is what you play for. I’m excited.”
The game itself didn’t go to plan for Edmonton. The Oilers fell behind early — again — and this time no number of eye-popping stops by Pickard (including a massive one on Carter Verhaeghe in the first period) could save Edmonton from itself in a 5-2 loss.
Pickard’s stat line was weak — giving up four goals on 18 shots for a .778 save percentage — but Knoblauch wasn’t convinced he was the problem. Nor would Knoblauch commit to him for Game 6.
“I’m not going to make that decision right now after a tough loss tonight,” the coach said after Game 5. “But from what I saw, I think Picks didn’t have much chance on all those goals. Breakaways, shots through screens, slot shots. There was nothing saying that it was a poor performance.”
It was Pickard’s first loss in the postseason, a testament to his body of work. It wasn’t so long ago he was in control of the Oilers’ crease. A stronger team effort in front of Pickard could have him shining there again Tuesday; Edmonton has been outscored 15-8 in its past three games, a frustrating reality given the Oilers’ depth of offensive talent and defensive capabilities.
“The quality of opportunities were really good [in Game 5], so there’s no fault at Calvin at all on any of those goals,” Knoblauch said. “When the pressure’s not on [the goalies] that they have to make every single save to keep this close or keep us ahead [it’s better]. It’d be nice to get some goal support. [Game 5] was a case where we were having difficulty generating offense. It’d be nice to have that lead and play knowing that they have to open things up when they’re trailing.”
THE OILERS WERE in a bad spot midway through the first round.
They’d entered the playoffs among the field’s Cup favorites after making the Final a year ago, falling there in Game 7 to the same franchise they’re battling now. The Oilers rebounded in a strong regular season, finishing third in the Pacific Division with 101 points.
It was worrisome then that they started the postseason with a thud, falling behind 2-0 in their first-round series against the Los Angeles Kings. Skinner was Edmonton’s starter at the time, and had given up 11 goals in those two defeats. Pickard had watched (almost) all of it happen from the bench, save for a brief appearance late in Game 2.
Knoblauch tapped Pickard to start in Game 3. Cue another comeback.
Pickard helped the Oilers reel off four straight wins to vanquish the Kings and send Edmonton to the second round. He peeled off another pair of wins against the Vegas Golden Knights to spot Edmonton a 2-0 series lead — only to sustain a lower-body injury in Game 2 that would cut his magical postseason run off at 6-0-0 with an .892 save percentage and 2.76 goals-against average.
Edmonton again turned to Skinner, who responded with a sensational run of his own leading the Oilers through their Western Conference finals series against the Dallas Stars. The now-healthy Pickard was more of a spectator again. Biding his time had become second nature.
“The last couple of years, [Skinner] has played much more than I have,” Pickard said. “So, practice time is huge for me. [Our staff] has me dialed in when I’m not playing and doing different drills to replicate situations in games, and for when that chance comes.”
Pickard has learned how to leverage his reps, perceiving each one as meaningful even when the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
“Getting the time in Game 3 [of the Final] at the end, even when it was out of hand there [with the score], it’s still good ice time for me to get out there and see game action,” Pickard said. “That propelled me to be ready for Game 4. [Any of that] practice time’s huge.”
It’s also fitting for a goalie like Pickard — who can revel entering a rout — to be on the path to a potentially distinctive feat. According to ESPN Research, the last time multiple goalies on a Cup-winning team recorded decisions in a Final for non-injury related reasons was when the Boston Bruins alternated between Gerry Cheevers and Eddie Johnston in 1972. Cheevers started Game 1, Game 3 and the clinching Game 6 in that series.
Skinner and Pickard are also only the second tandem in NHL history to have each recorded at least seven victories in a single postseason, joining Marc-Andre Fleury (nine wins) and Matt Murray (seven) during the Pittsburgh Penguins‘ Cup run in 2017.
But Pickard’s road here wasn’t quite like his predecessors — or his current goalie teammate.
Pickard was drafted by Colorado in the second round at No. 49 in the 2010 NHL draft. His first and only season as a starter for the Avalanche was in 2016-17, when he filled in for injured Semyon Varlamov.
Colorado exposed him that summer in the expansion draft and Pickard was selected by Vegas, with the idea he’d be Fleury’s backup. But the Golden Knights also selected Malcom Subban off waivers and put him behind Fleury instead. Pickard was then put on waivers and picked up by the Toronto Maple Leafs, who sent him to the minors.
From there, the New Brunswick, Canada, native kept moving around, waived by Toronto and then Philadelphia before a brief stint in Arizona. In July 2019, Pickard signed as a free agent with the Detroit Red Wings — his fifth team in two years — and still couldn’t take hold in the NHL. He toggled between the Red Wings and the American Hockey League for three seasons.
In July 2022, Pickard arrived in Edmonton … sort of. He signed a two-year, two-way deal with the club and spent his first season in the AHL. Pickard finally saw sustained NHL play the next season as the Oilers grappled with struggling starter Jack Campbell, giving Pickard his most games in the league (23) since 2016-17. That was enough to keep him on as Skinner’s backup this season.
The rest, as they say, is history. Pickard’s patience through the process has impressed those teammates now relying on him to pull them through to a Cup title.
“He’s been doing this for a long time, he has a ton of experience and been to a lot of different dressing rooms,” Kane said. “That can help you along when you do come on to different teams, making a little bit of an easier transition. Now you’re just seeing that off-ice translate on to the ice with his performance, and how much he’s helped us to where we are here today … in the Stanley Cup Final.”
If people weren’t paying attention to Pickard when he stepped in for Skinner against the Kings, there’s no doubt all eyes are on him now. It’s attention that Pickard has earned.
“[Pickard is] someone who’s just kind of stuck with it all along and he’s been a true pro and a great person all the way through,” Edmonton captain Connor McDavid said. “I think good people get rewarded and he works as hard as I’ve seen. Couldn’t be more deserving.”
KNOBLAUCH ISN’T ONE to be rushed.
He has been cagey about naming a starter throughout the Final. That will hold true again for Game 6.
“[It’s] a conversation with the staff, obviously our goaltending coach, Dustin Schwartz, but with all the assistants, the general manager,” Knoblauch said. “[We’ll] kind of weigh in how everyone feels and what’s best moving forward. It’s not an easy decision. We’ve got two goalies that have shown that they can play extremely well, win hockey games and we feel that no matter who we choose, they can win the game.”
Pickard’s numbers in the series (.878 SV%, 2.88 GAA) are stronger than Skinner’s (.860 SV%, 4.20 GAA) and they are on par for the entire postseason (Pickard holds an .886 SV% and 2.85 GAA to Skinner’s .891 SV% and 2.99 GAA). Their records, though, are quite different: 7-1 for Pickard, 7-6 for Skinner.
So, who gives the Oilers their best chance to win Game 6 and drag Florida back to Edmonton for a second straight Game 7 finale between these teams in the Cup Final?
If Pickard does get the call, it will be a culmination of 10 years of consistent effort to be trusted when there’s no tomorrow. There’s only the present moment — where the right backup goalie has always been trained to stay ready.
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Weekes perplexed by Oilers: ‘They look like a shell of themselves’
Kevin Weekes calls out the energy level by the Oilers in their Game 5 loss to the Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final.
The UK’s cost of living crisis hangover is facing fresh pressure from the Israel-Iran conflict and growing tensions across the Middle East.
Whenever the region, particularly a major oil-producing country, is embroiled in some kind of fracas, the potential consequences are first seen in global oil prices.
The Middle East accounts for a third of world output.
Iran’s share of the total is only about 3%, but it is the second-largest supplier of natural gas.
Add to that its control of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route, and you can understand why any military action involving Iran has huge implications for the global economy at a time when a US-inspired global trade war is already playing out.
What’s happened to oil prices?
Global oil prices jumped by up to 13% on Friday as the Israel-Iran conflict ramped up.
It was the biggest one-day leap seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which gave birth to the energy-driven cost-of-living crisis.
From lows of $64 (£47) a barrel for Brent crude, the international benchmark, earlier this month, the cost is currently 15% higher.
Iran ships all its oil to China because of Western sanctions, so the world’s second-largest economy would have the most to lose in the event of disruption.
Should that happen, China would need to replace that oil by buying elsewhere on the international market, threatening higher prices.
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1:42
How the Middle East conflict escalated
How are natural gas prices holding up?
UK day-ahead prices are 15% up over the past week alone.
Europe is more dependent on Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) these days because of sanctions against Russia.
The UK is particularly exposed due to the fact that we have low storage capacity and rely so much on gas-fired power to keep the lights on and for heating.
The day-ahead price, measured in pence per therm (I won’t go into that), is at 93p on Monday.
It sounds rather meaningless until you compare it with the price seen less than a week ago – 81p.
The higher sum was last seen over the winter – when demand is at its strongest.
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Aftermath of Iranian missile strike in northern Israel
What are the risks to these prices?
Market experts say Brent crude would easily exceed $100 (£74) a barrel in the event of any Iranian threats to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz – the 30-mile wide shipping lane controlled by both Iran and Oman.
While Iran has a history of disrupting trade, analysts believe it will not want to risk its oil and gas income through any blockade.
What do these price increases mean for the UK?
There are implications for the whole economy at a time when the chancellor can least afford it, as she bets big on public sector-led growth for the economy.
We can expect higher oil, gas and fuel costs to be passed on down supply chains – from the refinery and factory – to the end user, consumers. It could affect anything from foodstuffs to even fake tan.
Increases at the pumps are usually the first to appear – probably within the next 10 days. Prices are always quick to rise and slow to reflect easing wholesale costs.
Energy bills will also take in the gas spike, particularly if the wholesale price rises are sustained.
The energy price cap from September – and new fixed-term price deals – will first reflect these increases.
But energy price rises are an inflation risk and a potential threat to future interest rate cuts.
While LSEG data shows financial markets continuing to expect a further two interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, the rate-setting committee will be reluctant to cut if the pace of price growth is led higher than had been expected.
At a time when employers are grappling with higher taxes and minimum pay thresholds, and consumers a surge in bills following the ‘awful April’ hikes to council tax, water and other essentials, a fresh energy-linked inflation spike is the last thing anyone needs.
U.S. President Donald Trump walks as workers react at U.S. Steel Corporation–Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, U.S., May 30, 2025.
Leah Millis | Reuters
U.S. Steel shares jumped on Monday after President Donald Trump approved its controversial merger with Japan’s Nippon Steel.
U.S. Steel shares were last up about 5% in premarket trading.
Trump issued an executive order on Friday that allowed U.S. Steel and Nippon to finalize their merger so long as they signed a national security agreement with the U.S. government. The companies said they signed the agreement with the government, completing the final hurdle for the deal.
U.S. Steel said the national security agreement includes a golden share for the U.S .government, without specifying what powers the government would wield with its share. Trump said on Thursday that the golden share gives the U.S. president “total control.”
Typically, golden shares allow the holder veto power over important decisions the company makes. Pennsylvania Sen. Dave McCormick told CNBC in May that the golden share will give the U.S. government control of several board seats and ensure production levels aren’t cut.
Trump has avoided calling the transaction a merger, describing the deal instead as a “partnership.” U.S. Steel confirmed in a regulatory filing Monday that the company will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Nippon Steel North America.
“All regulatory approvals required for the completion of the Transaction have been received,” U.S. Steel said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. “The Transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, and is expected to be completed promptly.”