JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon sounded the alarm on a possible recession, warning Wall Street to prepare for the threat of rising interest rates even as inflation slows.
A lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary. Be prepared, Dimon said at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York on Wednesday.
Interest rates may go up and that might lead to recession,” he added, according to CNN Business.
Dimon’s comments suggest that he doesn’t forecast a rate cut following the next two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 11 and 12.
Federal Reserve officials have unanimously decided to keep the benchmark federal funds rate at its current 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, for the past two policy meetings with little indication that theyll slash interest rates moving forward.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell even reiterated during his closely watched speech during the International Monetary Funds policy panel in Washington, DC, earlier this month: “If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.”
Economists have been divided on what central bankers’ next move is — and whether it means the US economy is in for a soft landing, which will see it skirting a recession, or a hard landing.
“Im cautious about the economy,” Dimon said, per CNN.
The 67-year-old investment banking boss also noted that “inflation is hurting people,” and in a moment of positivity, pointed to the resilient labor market.
Representatives for Dimon at JPMorgan declined to comment.
Economists have cited October’s weaker-than-expected jobs report — when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 150,000 positions — as a signal that an interest rate cut is forthcoming.
The unemployment rate is now 3.9%, the agency said, above the Feds 3.8% year-end forecast.
Inflation has also trended weaker than central bankers estimates as Americans see some reprieve from the Feds aggressive tightening cycle, which began in March 2022, when rates were between 0.25% and 0.5%.
By June of last year, inflation peaked at 9.1% and rates have since increased at a pace not seen in 40 years.
The Fed hasn’t cut interest rates in over a year despite falling inflation, which slowed to 3.2% in October, according to the Consumer Price Index, which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services.
The figure marked a drop from Septembers 3.7% advance, though it remains well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which the US economy hasnt seen since 2012.
In an interview with Bloomberg TV last month, Dimon suggested that Americans are in for an interest-rate hike as steep as 1.5 percentage points, to a staggering 7%, which would mark the highest federal funds rate sine December 1990.
Dimon’s warnings of a recession echo those of hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, who said just this week that the Fed needs to slash interest rates as early as the first quarter in order to avert a real risk of a hard landing for the US economy.
Ackman told Bloomberg that if the Fed keeps rates around the 5.5% range while inflation trends below 3%, thats a very high real rate of interest.
Whats happening is the real rate of interest, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines, said the Pershing Square Capital Management founder.
I think theres a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesnt start cutting rates pretty soon, Ackman added, per Bloomberg, noting that hes seen evidence of a weakening economy.
Traders, however, arent fully pricing in a rate cut until the end of 2024s second quarter, in June, Bloomberg reported, citing swaps market data.
The chance of a cut happening in May is some 80%, the data showed.
Now, in social media posts and an appearance on boyfriend Travis Kelce’s sports podcast, Swift revealed just what fans can expect from the new album.
Image: Taylor Swift and boyfriend Travis Kelce on the New Heights podcast. Pic: New Heights
The Life of Showgirl, written during the European leg of her record-breaking Eras tour, will be released on 3 October.
It consists of 12 songs, including the title track that features pop star Sabrina Carpenter.
The full track list is:
1. The Fate Of Ophelia 2. Elizabeth Taylor 3. Opalite 4. Father Figure 5. Eldest Daughter 6. Ruin The Friendship 7. Actually Romantic 8. Wi$h Li$t 9. Wood 10. Cancelled! 11. Honey 12. The Life Of A Showgirl (featuring Sabrina Carpenter)
Long-time collaborators Max Martin and Shellback, two Swedish producers who worked with Swift on some of her biggest hits, joined the pop star for this album.
Within four hours of posting the full podcast episode on YouTube, it had already gathered 4.7m views.
Image: The cover of Taylor Swift’s newly announced album. Pic: Republic Records
Image: The back cover of Taylor Swift’s 12th studio album The Life Of A Showgirl. Pic: Republic Records
‘The hardest-working star in pop’
The album follows last year’s The Tortured Poets Department, which was released during the Eras tour.
That tour, with shows on five continents and in 51 cities, raked in more than $2.2bn (£1.62bn) and was the highest-grossing tour of all time.
“This album is about what was going on behind the scenes in my inner life during this tour, which was so exuberant and electric and vibrant,” Swift said during her podcast appearance.
Sky News culture and entertainment reporter Gemma Peplowsaid after her globe-trotting tour and a swathe of re-releases over recent years, the new album cemented Swift’s reputation “as the hardest-working star in pop”.
But there are fears they will discuss a deal robbing Ukraine of the land currently occupied by Russia – something Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he won’t accept.
Here’s what three of our correspondents think ahead of the much-anticipated face-to-face.
Putin’s legacy is at stake – he’ll want territory and more By Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent, in Alaska
Putin doesn’t just want victory. He needs it.
Three and a half years after he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, this war has to end in a visible win for the Russian president. It can’t have been for nothing. His legacy is at stake.
So the only deal I think he’ll be willing to accept at Friday’s summit is one that secures Moscow’s goals.
These include territory (full control of the four Ukrainian regions which Russia has already claimed), permanent neutrality for Kyiv and limits on its armed forces.
I expect he’ll be trying to convince Trump that such a deal is the quickest path to peace. The only alternative, in Russia’s eyes, is an outright triumph on the battlefield.
Image: Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meeting in Osaka in 2019
I think Putin‘s hope is that the American president agrees with this view and then gives Ukraine a choice: accept our terms or go it alone without US support.
A deal like that might not be possible this week, but it may be in the future if Putin can give Trump something in return.
That’s why there’s been lots of talk from Moscow this week about all the lucrative business deals that can come from better US-Russia relations.
The Kremlin will want to use this opportunity to remind the White House of what else it can offer, apart from an end to the fighting.
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4:25
What will Kyiv be asked to give up?
Ukraine would rather this summit not be happening By Dominic Waghorn, international affairs editor, in Ukraine
Ukraine would far rather this meeting wasn’t happening.
Trump seemed to have lost patience with Putin and was about to hit Russia with more severe sanctions until he was distracted by the Russian leader’s suggestion that they meet.
Ukrainians say the Alaska summit rewards Putin by putting him back on the world stage.
But the meeting is happening, and they have to be realistic.
Most of all, they want a ceasefire before any negotiations can happen. Then they want the promise of security guarantees.
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2:35
Does Europe have any power over Ukraine’s future?
That is because they know that Putin may well come back for more even if peace does break out. They need to be able to defend themselves should that happen.
And they want the promise of reparations to rebuild their country, devastated by Putin’s wanton, unprovoked act of aggression.
There are billions of Russian roubles and assets frozen across the West. They want them released and sent their way.
What they fear is Trump being hoodwinked by Putin with the lure of profit from US-Russian relations being restored, regardless of Ukraine’s fate.
Image: US Army paratroopers train at the military base where discussions will take place. File pic: Reuters
That would allow Russia to regain its strength, rearm and prepare for another round of fighting in a few years’ time.
Trump and his golf buddy-turned-negotiator Steve Witkoff appear to believe Putin might be satisfied with keeping some of the land he has taken by force.
Putin says he wants much more than that. He wants Ukraine to cease to exist as a country separate from Russia.
Any agreement short of that is only likely to be temporary.
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1:41
Zelenskyy: I told Trump ‘Putin is bluffing’
Trump’s pride on the line – he has a reputation to restore By Martha Kelner, US correspondent, in Alaska
As with anything Donald Trump does, he already has a picture in his mind.
The image of Trump shaking hands with the ultimate strongman leader, Vladimir Putin, on US soil calls to his vanity and love of an attention-grabbing moment.
There is also pride at stake.
Image: Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, where Trump will meet his Russian counterpart. File pic: Reuters
Trump campaigned saying he would end the Russia-Ukraine war on his first day in office, so there is an element of him wanting to follow through on that promise to voters, even though it’s taken him 200-plus days in office and all he’s got so far is this meeting, without apparently any concessions on Putin’s end.
In Trump’s mind – and in the minds of many of his supporters – he is the master negotiator, the chief dealmaker, and he wants to bolster that reputation.
He is keen to further the notion that he negotiates in a different, more straightforward way than his predecessors and that it is paying dividends.
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