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Ratings agencyMoody’sslapped a downgrade warningon China’s credit rating on Tuesday,saying costs to bail out localgovernmentsand state firmsandcontrol itsproperty crisiswould weigh on the world’s No. 2 economy.

The downgrade reflects growing evidence that authorities will have to provide more financial support for debt-laden local governments and state firms, posing broad risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength,Moody’ssaid in a statement.

Historically, about one-third of issuers have been downgraded within 18 months of the assignment of a negative rating outlook.

“The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector,” Moody’s said.

China’s blue-chip stocks slumped to nearly five-year lows on Tuesday amid worries about the country’s growth, with talk of a possible cut by Moody’s denting sentiment during the session, while Hong Kong stocks extended losses.

China’s major state-owned banks, which had been seen supporting the yuan currency all day, stepped up US dollar selling very forcefully after the Moody’s statement, one source with knowledge of the matter said.

The yuan was little changed by late afternoon.

The cost of insuring China’s sovereign debt against a default rose to its highest since mid-November.

“Now the markets are more concerned with the property crisis and weak growth, rather than the immediate sovereign debt risk,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank in Hong Kong.

US-listed shares of Chinese companies fell, with Baidu off 0.5%, Alibaba Group Holding down 1.1%, and JD.com Jdropping 1.9%.

The move by Moody’s was the first change on its China view since it cut its rating by one notch to A1 in 2017, also citing expectations of slowing growth and rising debt.

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WhileMoody’saffirmedChina’s A1 long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings on Tuesday — saying the economy still has a high shock-absorption capacity — it said it expects the country’s annual GDP growth to slow to 4.0% in 2024 and 2025, and to average 3.8% from 2026 to 2030.

Moody’s main peer, S&P Global, said later in a long-scheduled global outlook call that its big concern was that “spillovers” from any worsening in the property crisis could push China’s gross domestic product growth “below 3%” next year.

Moody’s outlook downgrade comes ahead of the annual agenda-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected around mid-December, with government advisers calling for a steady growth target for 2024 and more stimulus.

Analysts say the A1 rating is high enough in investment-grade territory that a downgrade is unlikely to trigger forced selling by global funds.

S&P and Fitch, the other major global rating agency, both rate China A+, the equivalent of Moody’s A1, and have stable outlooks.

China’s Finance Ministry said it was disappointed by Moody’s decision, adding that the economy will maintain its rebound and positive trend.

It also said property and local government risks are controllable.

“Moody’s concerns about China’s economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary,” the ministry said.

Most analysts believe China’s growth is on track to hit the government’s target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven.

The economy has struggled to mount a strong post-pandemic recovery as the deepening crisis in the housing market, local government debt concerns, slowing global growth and geopolitical tensions have dented momentum.

A flurry of policy support measures have proven only modestly beneficial, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus.

“We spent the better part of three years watching China have this sort of off-and-on reopening from the pandemic, and this was the year they finally sort of officially reopened,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in New York. “But the pace at which the economy has recovered from that has been disappointing.”

Analysts widely agree that China’s growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.

Many believe Beijing needs to transform its economic model from an over-reliance on debt-fueled investment to one driven more by consumer demand.

Last week, China’s central bank head Pan Gongsheng pledged to keep monetary policy accommodative to support the economy, but also urged structural reforms to reduce a reliance on infrastructure and property for growth.

After years of over-investment, plummeting returns from land sales, and soaring costs to battle COVID, economists say debt-laden municipalities now represent a major risk to the economy.

Local government debt reached 92 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion), or 76% of China’s economic output in 2022, up from 62.2% in 2019, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund.

In October, China unveiled a plan to issue 1 trillion yuan ($139.84 billion) in sovereign bonds by the end of the year to help kick-start activity, raising the 2023 budget deficit target to 3.8% of gross domestic product from the original 3%.

The central bank has also implemented modest interest rate cuts and pumped more cash into the economy in recent months.

Nevertheless, foreign investors have been sour on China almost all year.

Capital outflows from China rose sharply to $75 billion in September, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, according to Goldman Sachs.

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Politics

Investigation demanded into Keir Starmer’s comms chief’s lobbying links

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Investigation demanded into Keir Starmer's comms chief's lobbying links

Sir Keir Starmer’s communications chief Tim Allan owns a minority stake in a lobbying firm and still discusses government activity with a senior consultant at the company, Sky News can reveal.

The relationship between Tim Allan, Tom Baldwin and Strand Partners has led to accusations of a perception that one of Downing Street’s most senior figures has a conflict of interest – a potential breach of the special adviser code.

Tom Baldwin is a consultant for Strand Partners, a lobbying firm partly owned by Mr Allan, the government’s executive director of communications.

Multiple sources have told Sky News that Mr Allan and Mr Baldwin have discussed government affairs and politics since Mr Allan joined Number 10 in September. This is not challenged by Downing Street, who say the pair speak in Mr Baldwin’s capacity as a journalist.

Tim Allan at a Strand Partners event in July 2024, before he took a job in government. Pic: Strand Partners
Image:
Tim Allan at a Strand Partners event in July 2024, before he took a job in government. Pic: Strand Partners

Mr Baldwin is also Sir Keir’s biographer, a commentator and has appeared on Sky News.

As part of his role for Strand Partners, he has spoken at private briefings for Strand’s corporate clients about the inner workings of government.

There is no suggestion that Mr Baldwin – who is not a lobbyist – or Strand Partners have done anything wrong.

The revelations about Mr Allan have led to cross-party calls for an investigation and a member of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee to demand he gives up his 10% shareholding in Strand Partners.

Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, told Sky News: “I think it’s extraordinary that someone still has shares who’s at the heart of Downing Street… I think there’s lots of questions still to be asked, I think it’s important to know what these supposed appropriate mitigations are, what exactly are those and do they pass the public sniff test?”

Mr Allen is bound by the code of special advisers that says: “Special advisers must ensure that no conflict arises, or could reasonably be perceived to arise, between their official duties and their private interests, financial or otherwise.”

The code also says: “Special advisers must not misuse their official position or information acquired in the course of their official duties to further their private interests or those of others.”

Tom Baldwin, Journalist and Strategic Adviser at Strand Partners, speaking at a company dinner at Labour Party Conference in September 2025. Pic: Strand Partners.
Image:
Tom Baldwin, Journalist and Strategic Adviser at Strand Partners, speaking at a company dinner at Labour Party Conference in September 2025. Pic: Strand Partners.

Mr Baldwin and Mr Allan are understood not to discuss Strand Partners business. Mr Allan has undertaken to not take dividends or get involved in the running of the company while he is in government, and resigned as chairman on his appointment to Number 10 at the start of September.

But other lobbyists told me they are jealous of this level of access, giving rise to the perception of a conflict of interest.

Opposition parties are seeking an investigation. Lisa Smart, a Liberal Democrat frontbencher, said: “I’ve written to the cabinet secretary today because this appears to be a clear conflict of interest right at the heart of government.

“It cannot be the case that the executive director of communications for the government has shareholdings in a lobbying firm and is continuing to have conversations with senior consultants at that firm.”

Tim Allan (left, behind the flag) sitting in on a Cabinet meeting, in September. Pic: Number 10/Flickr
Image:
Tim Allan (left, behind the flag) sitting in on a Cabinet meeting, in September. Pic: Number 10/Flickr

Kevin Hollinrake, Conservative Party chairman, said: “[There] should be a full Cabinet Office investigation. I think the public need to see there are no conflicts of interest and no perceived conflicts of interests, and that’s not where we are right now.”

The member of Labour’s National Executive Committee said: “This is a massive conflict of interest when we promised integrity to the British public. The first thing he has to do is give up his shareholding.”

Since Mr Allan took up his role in September, Mr Baldwin has been allowed by Treasury officials in Downing Street to attend at least one restricted event with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, her news conference on the budget last week.

Mr Allan denies knowing about this in advance and said this is part of a multi-interview feature for a newspaper, but it is a sign of how close Mr Baldwin is with members of the government.

A Labour spokesperson said: “The allegation that Tim Allan has done anything to benefit Strand whilst in Number 10 is categorically false.

“Tom Baldwin is an established journalist, author and commentator, who regularly appears on Sky News. Any interactions with him are in his capacity as a journalist and have not related to Strand, its business or its clients.”

A Cabinet Office spokesperson said: “There is a rigorous process to capture any potential conflicts of interest, and ensure appropriate mitigations are in place to reflect specific circumstances. Ahead of his appointment, Tim Allan fully complied with this process.

“This is set out in the Special Adviser Code of Conduct and lists of special adviser interests are published annually.”

A Strand Partners spokesman said: “Tom Baldwin is a journalist and the biographer of the prime minister. He does not engage in government relations for Strand and this is not part of his terms of engagement with us.

“Tim Allan sought advice on his interests from the Cabinet Office and followed every element of the advice received. He receives no financial benefit from Strand and is not involved in our operations.”

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Politics

Resident doctor strikes: I don’t want people to suffer but we have to walk out again, says BMA chief

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Resident doctor strikes: I don't want people to suffer but we have to walk out again, says BMA chief

The British Medical Association (BMA) has defended a new round of resident doctor walkouts starting on Friday, insisting medics’ pay is still “way down” compared with 2008 and that the government has failed to finish “a journey” towards restoring it.

BMA chair Dr Tom Dolphin told Sky News the dispute remains rooted in years of pay erosion that have left resident doctors far behind other public sector workers.

“When we started the dispute, […] the lowest level of the resident doctors were being paid £14 an hour,” he said.

“There were some pay rises over the last couple of years that brought that partly back to the value it should be at, but not all the way.

“The secretary of state (Wes Streeting) himself called it a journey, implying there were further steps to come, but we haven’t seen that.”

Resident doctors outside Newcastle's Royal Victoria Infirmary during a five-day strike in July. File pic: PA
Image:
Resident doctors outside Newcastle’s Royal Victoria Infirmary during a five-day strike in July. File pic: PA

When asked if the row ultimately “comes down to money”, he replied: “In the sense that the secretary of state doesn’t want to or isn’t able to fund the pay increases to match the value that we had in 2008.”

Dr Dolphin argued that while “the general worker in the economy as a whole” has seen pay catch up since the 2008 financial crash, “doctors are still way down”.

The government points out that its 29% settlement last year was one of the largest in the public sector and was intended to draw a line under two years of walkouts.

How much do resident doctors earn?

After the most recent pay awards, in 2025/26 a medic just out of university receives a basic salary of £38,831 and has estimated average earnings of £45,900 after factors like extra pay for unsociable hours are taken into account, according to medical think tank the Nuffield Trust.

That average figure rises to £54,400 by the second year and a more senior speciality registrar earns an average of £80,500.

The BMA says that when the dispute started, the most junior doctors were making around £14 per hour. That works out at £29,120 per year for a 40-hour week.

That’s very close to the earnings of a doctor fresh out of medical school in 2022/23 – £29,384, according to Full Fact.

But that’s over a 52-week year without taking into account paid holiday or unsociable hours.

But Dr Dolphin said the deal still fell short: “The gap was biggest for doctors and needed the biggest amount of restoration, and that’s what we got.”

He defended the BMA’s use of the Retail Price Index (RPI), a metric rejected by the Office for National Statistics, saying it “better reflects the costs people face”.

Should resident doctors get a pay rise? Have your say in the poll at the bottom of this story.

Dr Tom Dolphin says resident doctors are still underpaid
Image:
Dr Tom Dolphin says resident doctors are still underpaid

‘Who do you think is treating the patients?’

With Chancellor Rachel Reeves preparing her budget amid warnings of deep cuts, Dr Dolphin said the BMA is not demanding an immediate cash injection.

“We’re quite happy for that money to be deferred with some kind of multi-year pay deal so that we can end the dispute and avoid having further industrial action about pay for several years to come,” he said.

“Money spent in the NHS is returned to the economy. For every pound you spend, you get several pounds back.”

When pressed on whether the £1.7bn cost of previous strike action could have been better spent on treatment and technology for NHS cancer patients, he hit back: “Who do you think is treating the cancer patients? It’s the doctors.”

Read more on Sky News:
Thousands of NHS redundancies
Sentence and fine over patient death

Health Secretary Wes Streeting has criticised the BMA for striking again. File pic: PA
Image:
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has criticised the BMA for striking again. File pic: PA

Strikes will cause disruption, union boss admits

Dr Dolphin rejected suggestions that the dispute could destabilise the government, calling the idea “implausible”.

He admitted prolonged strikes have tested public patience, but said the government had left doctors with no choice.

“A prolonged industrial dispute makes people annoyed with both sides,” he said. “It is vexing to us that we are still in this dispute.”

“I don’t want patients to suffer,” he added. “I accept that the strikes cause disruption… of course that’s upsetting for them. I completely get that. And I’m sorry that it’s happening.”

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Technology

Chinese tech giant Tencent’s quarterly revenue rises 15%, fueled by AI

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Chinese tech giant Tencent's quarterly revenue rises 15%, fueled by AI

Tencent on Thursday posted 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with AI boosting the Chinese tech giant’s performance in advertising targeting and gaming.

Here’s how Tencent performed in the third quarter of 2025, per earnings released on Thursday: 

  • Revenue: 192.9 billion Chinese yuan ($27.12 billion), surpassing the 189.2 billion Chinese yuan expected analysts, according to data compiled by LSEG. 
  • Operating profit: 63.6 billion yuan, versus 58.01 billion yuan expected by the street.  

Tencent boosted its capital expenditure earlier this year as it ramped up AI and eyed European expansion for its cloud computing services, which would compete against market leaders Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure. It has its own AI foundational model in China called Hunyuan, however it also uses DeepSeek in some products.  

Tencent shares are up 56.7% year-to-date. 

This is a breaking news story. Please refresh for updates.

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