Connect with us

Published

on

It was but three hours after the prime minister published his emergency Rwanda legislation and issued a “unite or die” plea to his parliamentary party that his immigration minister gave his answer, and quit government. 

Rishi Sunak’s once close ally, Robert Jenrick, apparently didn’t want to unite and issued a resignation letter that clearly warned the prime minister that his policy was about to die.

He called the bill the PM was proposing “a triumph of hope over experience” as he warned that the “stakes for the country were too high for us to not pursue stronger protections required to end the merry-go-round of legal challenges”.

Reaction as immigration minister quits over Rwanda bill
Questions remain over asylum seekers’ safety – analysis

The Tories are a party fearing “electoral oblivion”, with many MPs believing any chance of survival has to rest on those planes getting off the ground next April.

The question now is what happens to the prime minister as he confronts the biggest crisis he has faced by a country mile.

With his party deeply divided over how to proceed with the emergency laws, Mr Sunak has unleashed a vicious backlash on the right of the party, with not one, but two, leaders in Suella Braverman and Mr Jenrick.

More on Conservatives

There are up to 100 MPs in the right wing groups, such as the ERG, the New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group, who met this week to discuss strategy as they sought to press the PM to pull out of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) – the step they believe necessary to start the flights.

And while not all of them are willing to rebel, one figure with understanding of the factions and followings of this side of the party thinks there are 30 or so MPs willing to back Ms Braverman – enough to sink Mr Sunak’s majority.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Rwanda treaty ‘ends merry-go-round’

As for the mood, it’s sulphurous. I’m told that Mr Jenrick went AWOL after saying the bill didn’t go far enough, even though, as two sources told me, Number 10 had the lawyers the immigration minister had been consulting saying it did.

But in a sign of the growing animosity, a source close to Mr Jenrick said: “This is completely untrue. They were presented with respectable legal arguments for strengthening the bill but made the political choice not to go further.

“They were uber cautious, and as a result the bill won’t work.”

It all adds to the sense that there are a group on the right of the party ready to blow this prime minister up, with eyes, not on the general election, but what comes next for the Conservative Party.

Even those who are backing the PM’s approach last night admitted the real chance of defeat, saying: “He will be hoping that the co-ordinated nature of this might bind the rest of the party together, but there are enough of them to defeat the bill, [and] at this stage of the parliament that would be a very big challenge.”

The second reading of this bill looks set to be next Tuesday, and between now and then Mr Sunak has the fight of his political career on his hands to convince the bulk of MPs on the right of the party that the legality of this bill will work and get flights off the ground.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Conservative MP Danny Kruger says Tories must ‘unite’

The plan of attack was laid out in the PM’s letter to Mr Jenrick on Wednesday night, where he told his former friend that his departure from government was “based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation”.

A letter for Mr Jenrick’s supporters rather than the man himself, Mr Sunak said his emergency legislation would work because it “makes clear parliament deems Rwanda safe and no court can second guess that”.

The PM’s letter added: “It misapplies relevant parts of the Human Rights Act and makes clear it is for a minister to decide whether or not to comply with temporary injections by the European Court of Human Rights”.

Read more:
‘Utterly devastated’: Government immigration plans tearing UK families apart
Skilled worker visa changes and other new immigration rules explained

Mr Sunak also said Rwanda wouldn’t accept the scheme if it could be considered in breach of our international law – so what Mr Jenrick wants is a non-starter.

Two sides then at war, a sitting prime minister and the woman – and man – that would succeed him.

Over the next few days, it will be a battle for the hearts and minds of MPs as the PM’s team frantically tries to convince MPs that his plan will work and to stay the course.

It is a battle he has to win.

Continue Reading

Politics

Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Published

on

By

Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

Politics Hub: Follow latest updates

Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

Read more:
Jobs market continues to slow
Banks step up lobbying over threat of tax hikes

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

Continue Reading

Politics

Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Published

on

By

Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Crypto maturity demands systematic discipline over speculation

Unlimited leverage and sentiment-driven valuations create cascading liquidations that wipe billions overnight. Crypto’s maturity demands systematic discipline.

Continue Reading

Politics

NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

Published

on

By

NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

NYC mayor establishes digital assets and blockchain office

The executive order creating the Office of Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology under the New York City government came three months before Eric Adams will leave office.

Continue Reading

Trending