Rishi Sunak facing political fight of his life as he wars with right wing Tories over Rwanda bill

Published

11 months ago

December 7, 2023

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It was but three hours after the prime minister published his emergency Rwanda legislation and issued a “unite or die” plea to his parliamentary party that his immigration minister gave his answer, and quit government.

Rishi Sunak’s once close ally, Robert Jenrick, apparently didn’t want to unite and issued a resignation letter that clearly warned the prime minister that his policy was about to die.

He called the bill the PM was proposing “a triumph of hope over experience” as he warned that the “stakes for the country were too high for us to not pursue stronger protections required to end the merry-go-round of legal challenges”.

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The Tories are a party fearing “electoral oblivion”, with many MPs believing any chance of survival has to rest on those planes getting off the ground next April.

The question now is what happens to the prime minister as he confronts the biggest crisis he has faced by a country mile.

With his party deeply divided over how to proceed with the emergency laws, Mr Sunak has unleashed a vicious backlash on the right of the party, with not one, but two, leaders in Suella Braverman and Mr Jenrick.

There are up to 100 MPs in the right wing groups, such as the ERG, the New Conservatives, the Common Sense Group, who met this week to discuss strategy as they sought to press the PM to pull out of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) – the step they believe necessary to start the flights.

And while not all of them are willing to rebel, one figure with understanding of the factions and followings of this side of the party thinks there are 30 or so MPs willing to back Ms Braverman – enough to sink Mr Sunak’s majority.

As for the mood, it’s sulphurous. I’m told that Mr Jenrick went AWOL after saying the bill didn’t go far enough, even though, as two sources told me, Number 10 had the lawyers the immigration minister had been consulting saying it did.

But in a sign of the growing animosity, a source close to Mr Jenrick said: “This is completely untrue. They were presented with respectable legal arguments for strengthening the bill but made the political choice not to go further.

“They were uber cautious, and as a result the bill won’t work.”

It all adds to the sense that there are a group on the right of the party ready to blow this prime minister up, with eyes, not on the general election, but what comes next for the Conservative Party.

Even those who are backing the PM’s approach last night admitted the real chance of defeat, saying: “He will be hoping that the co-ordinated nature of this might bind the rest of the party together, but there are enough of them to defeat the bill, [and] at this stage of the parliament that would be a very big challenge.”

The second reading of this bill looks set to be next Tuesday, and between now and then Mr Sunak has the fight of his political career on his hands to convince the bulk of MPs on the right of the party that the legality of this bill will work and get flights off the ground.

The plan of attack was laid out in the PM’s letter to Mr Jenrick on Wednesday night, where he told his former friend that his departure from government was “based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation”.

A letter for Mr Jenrick’s supporters rather than the man himself, Mr Sunak said his emergency legislation would work because it “makes clear parliament deems Rwanda safe and no court can second guess that”.

The PM’s letter added: “It misapplies relevant parts of the Human Rights Act and makes clear it is for a minister to decide whether or not to comply with temporary injections by the European Court of Human Rights”.

Mr Sunak also said Rwanda wouldn’t accept the scheme if it could be considered in breach of our international law – so what Mr Jenrick wants is a non-starter.

Two sides then at war, a sitting prime minister and the woman – and man – that would succeed him.

Over the next few days, it will be a battle for the hearts and minds of MPs as the PM’s team frantically tries to convince MPs that his plan will work and to stay the course.

It is a battle he has to win.

Politics

NY Supreme Court allows Greenidge to keep mining, but challenges remain

Published

3 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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NY Supreme Court allows Greenidge to keep mining, but challenges remain

The state Department of Environmental Conservation botched the permitting process, but it still gets a do-over.

Politics

UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September – slower than expected

Published

3 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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UK economy grows by 0.1% between July and September - slower than expected

The UK economy grew by 0.1% between July and September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, despite the small positive GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.1% in September, dragging down overall growth for the three month period.

The growth was also slower than what had been expected by experts and a drop from the 0.5% growth between April and June, the ONS said.

Economists polled by Reuters and the Bank of England had forecast an expansion of 0.2%, slowing from the rapid growth seen over the first half of 2024 when the economy was rebounding from last year’s shallow recession.

And the metric that Labour has said it is most focused on – the GDP per capita, or the economic output divided by the number of people in the country – also fell by 0.1%.

Reacting to the figures, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said: “Am I satisfied with the numbers published today? Of course not. I want growth to be stronger, to come sooner, and also to be felt by families right across the country.”

“It’s why in my Mansion House speech last night, I announced some of the biggest reforms of our pension system in a generation to unlock long term patient capital, up to £80bn to help invest in small businesses and scale up businesses and in the infrastructure needs,” Ms Reeves later told Sky News in an interview.

“We’re four months into this government. There’s a lot more to do to turn around the growth performance of the last decade or so.”

New economy data tests chancellor’s growth plan

The sluggish services sector – which makes up the bulk of the British economy – was a particular drag on growth over the past three months. It expanded by 0.1%, cancelling out the 0.8% growth in the construction sector.

The UK’s GDP for the most recent quarter is lower than the 0.7% growth in the US and 0.4% in the Eurozone.

The figures have pushed the UK towards the bottom of the G7 growth table for the third quarter of the year.

It was expected to meet the same 0.2% growth figures reported in Germany and Japan – but fell below that after a slow September.

The pound remained stable following the news, hovering around $1.267. The FTSE 100, meanwhile, opened the day down by 0.4%.

The Bank of England last week predicted that Ms Reeves’s first budget as chancellor will increase inflation by up to half a percentage point over the next two years, contributing to a slower decline in interest rates than previously thought.

Announcing a widely anticipated 0.25 percentage point cut in the base rate to 4.75%, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) forecast that inflation will return “sustainably” to its target of 2% in the first half of 2027, a year later than at its last meeting.

The Bank’s quarterly report found Ms Reeves’s £70bn package of tax and borrowing measures will place upward pressure on prices, as well as delivering a three-quarter point increase to GDP next year.