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Dec 7, 2023, 12:00 PM ET

All eyes have been on Shohei Ohtani this offseason — and understandably so, as the two-way star is expected to sign a contract in the range of $500 to $600 million, the largest guarantee in North American sports history.

But his free agency has been shrouded in secrecy, with little known about his career desires, where he wants to play and which team’s he has been talking to — though that changed during MLB’s winter meetings as certain teams acknowledged meeting with Ohtani, despite warnings from Ohtani’s camp about sharing that type of information.

So, as we await Ohtani’s decision, we thought it might be fun to look at how the dominoes will fall. We’ve enlisted the help of ESPN MLB experts Jeff Passan, David Schoenfield, Kiley McDaniel, Bradford Doolittle and Alden Gonzalez to map out the moves that will come once Ohtani picks his team.

For this activity, we’re going to focus on six teams: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets. We’ll send Ohtani to the Dodgers, Jays and Angels in three separate scenarios and then go through how the other teams will pivot in free agency as a result of Ohtani’s choice.

If Ohtani signs with the … Dodgers

The Dodgers have prepared for the Ohtani sweepstakes for a couple of years now, sitting out last offseason’s free agent extravaganza and lowering their payroll down to about $158 million entering this offseason, nearly $100 million less than 2023’s total (which in turn was lower than where it was in 2021 and 2022). Only Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are signed beyond 2025, giving the Dodgers the long-term flexibility to sign Ohtani — not to mention a fearsome threesome to lead the lineup. How about Ohtani, Betts and Freeman and hitting 1-2-3? Better yet, they can sign Ohtani and still have room to add to the rotation. It’s nice to be the Dodgers. As for the Ohtani runner-ups … — Schoenfield

Blue Jays’ next move: Aside from being extremely sad? Toronto went into this winter wanting to land a big fish, and Ohtani and Juan Soto were the two prized tunas in the ocean. If they want a bat, they could pivot to Cody Bellinger to fill the center-field gap left behind by Kevin Kiermaier‘s departure. If they want an arm, they can go head-to-head with the most moneyed teams in baseball and take a crack at Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Either way, the disappointment of going after the biggest stars available and missing would be palpable for a team that deeply desired a win to erase the disillusionment of another early postseason exit. — Passan

Cubs’ next move: Bring back Bellinger. The Cubs are looking for a big bat to add to the lineup and with Ohtani out of the mix, Bellinger is the next-best position player. He and Ohtani obviously aren’t one-for-one replacements at the plate, much less in overall quality, position or pitching ability, but the Cubs’ lineup has enough versatile pieces to make room for a top-notch player at a number of positions. The other main suitor for Bellinger was perceived to be the Yankees, who solved their outfield issues by trading for Soto (and Trent Grisham) Wednesday night. — McDaniel

Red Sox’s next move: Boston’s primary focus is the rotation — which Ohtani would have helped out starting in 2025 — but this is also an organization that has long valued production from the DH slot, from David Ortiz to J.D. Martinez to Justin Turner. Martinez and Turner are free agents, but let’s give the Red Sox Jorge Soler. With all their left-handed hitters, they need a righty masher, and Soler slugged .688 last season against southpaws and at 31 is younger than Martinez or Turner. They should keep their prospects in an improving farm system, so let’s have them dig into free agency to add rotation depth rather than a trade: Shota Imanaga (Kiley McDaniel’s No. 11 ranked free agent) and Seth Lugo, who pitched well as a starter with the San Diego Padres. That gives them eight solid rotation options: Rodriguez, Lugo, Bryan Bello, Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock. — Schoenfield

Angels’ next move: Trade Mike Trout. Start over. Build around Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel and Logan O’Hoppe. Throw Jo Adell out there and let him sink or swim. Yes, I know what the words “Mike Trout is not getting traded, one hundred percent” mean. I would trade him anyway, to the Philadelphia Phillies most likely, since that might be the only place to which you could convince him to waive his no-trade clause. But if Ohtani goes, this era of Angels baseball needs to transition to the next, and it needs to be done carefully and with patience. — Doolittle

Mets’ next move: The Mets are a lot more likely to sign Yamamoto than they are to sign Ohtani, so for them this isn’t so much of a pivot as it is, seemingly, their No. 1 priority. They need starting pitching, and Yamamoto would make for a nice top-of-the-rotation pairing with Japanese countryman Kodai Senga. At 25, Yamamoto fits perfectly with their pursuit of long-term sustainability and their plan to seemingly be at their best in 2025 and 2026 as opposed to 2024. Mets owner Steve Cohen, who reportedly flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto recently, has the money to outbid everybody for his services. And it’s a crowded field. — Gonzalez

If Ohtani signs with the … Blue Jays

At the start of the offseason, the Blue Jays were hardly the favorite to sign Ohtani. One betting site had them tied for the 12th lowest odds at the onset of the offseason (tied at 25-1 with the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals). But maybe it shouldn’t be a big surprise if they land him.

The Jays have a deep-pocketed owner in Rogers Communications, which could use Ohtani to headline its Blue Jays broadcasts across Canada. Plus, they need help on the field. While they’re one of just five teams to win at least 88 games each of the past three seasons, they’re a big, fat 0-4 in playoff games, scoring one run in their two losses to the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the offense plummeted from top three in the AL in runs in 2020, ’21 and ’22 to eighth in 2023 and clearly lacked a left-handed hitter to go with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer. With a veteran rotation, it’s also imperative for the Jays to go all-in right now while the rotation still projects as one of the best in the majors. — Schoenfield

Dodgers’ next move: The Dodgers are almost as interested in Yamamoto as they are in Ohtani, and one can make a strong case that Yamamoto — who will actually pitch next season — makes them better in 2024. This is clearly where they’ll pivot if they can’t get Ohtani. They’d love to sign them both, but getting just one would be looked upon as a massive success. The Dodgers want to add two to three starting pitchers this offseason, and Yamamoto is at the forefront of their plans. He’s going to command a contract in excess of $200 million, but he’s also just 25 years old. And they’ve had their eyes on him for a while. — Gonzalez

Cubs’ next move: I had the Cubs bringing back Bellinger in the first scenario, but you could argue that Matt Chapman fits them better as the big offensive addition to their lineup. With Christopher Morel being more of a corner utility type who can play a number of positions capably, adding a strong glove at third in Chapman makes team building a bit easier. There’s a potential desire for another veteran in center field before prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong — who was called up for the last month of the season — takes the job, to then have the vet move into a platoon/reserve role. At the higher end of the market, KBO outfielder Jung-hoo Lee could be a fit, with Michael A. Taylor or Adam Duvall as lower-end everyday options and Kiermaier and Harrison Bader in the higher upside bucket despite some durability issues. — McDaniel

Red Sox’s next move: I gave the Red Sox Soler and two starting pitchers last time. This time, I’m giving them Yamamoto. Check that list of starters above. OK, I’ll repeat it: Bello, Sale, Pivetta, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock. I don’t see an ace in there, that’s for sure. Yamamoto gives them the No. 1 starter they haven’t really had since Sale first injured his shoulder during the World Series season of 2018. –– Schoenfield

Angels’ next move: Well, since the Angels are adamant that they won’t trade Trout, then trade everyone else. The veterans that is. Fold in some future value and eat some cash to move Anthony Rendon. Find a taker for your good over-30 hitters like Brandon Drury and Taylor Ward. With or without Trout, the direction is the same: full reset. The Detroit Tigers did it with Miguel Cabrera still around and so the Angels can do it with Trout. — Doolittle

Mets’ next move: Yamamoto or bust. The Mets’ dalliance with Ohtani was short-lived, and as much as they would’ve loved rostering him, their most acute need in 2024 and beyond is in a rotation decimated by trades and ineffectiveness. Getting Yamamoto won’t be easy. The New York Yankees want him. The Dodgers, especially if they don’t get Ohtani, will want him. Getting into a bidding war with the two marquee franchises in baseball isn’t anybody’s idea of a good time. For free agents, Ohtani going to Toronto is the best-case scenario, because it shortens the supply of top-end players in a market where all the high-dollar teams are primed to spend. — Passan

If Ohtani signs with the … Angels

Maybe Ohtani is comfortable in Anaheim. Maybe Ohtani looks at Neto and Schanuel and sees a brighter future. Maybe he appreciates the organization that let him do it his way in turning into a two-way superstar. Maybe he just doesn’t want to leave a stadium he loves to hit in (he’s hit 99 home runs at Angel Stadium in his career and 72 on the road). Maybe after all this, he simply ends up back with the Angels. — Schoenfield

Dodgers’ next move: The Dodgers don’t seem to have a ton of interest in Blake Snell, and if Yamamoto is off the board, their best chance at a high-impact starting pitcher could be through a trade. Enter Dylan Cease, who possesses electric stuff and comes with two years of control (as opposed to Tyler Glasnow and Corbin Burnes, who have only one). The Dodgers are the type of team that can help Cease recapture his dominance from 2022. And they have the trade assets to beat out the competition for his services. — Gonzalez

Blue Jays’ next move: The market for Korean star Jung-hoo Lee is sprawling, and teams believe he could fetch a deal in excess of the five years and $90 million Boston gave Masataka Yoshida last year. The fit with Toronto makes sense. Lee is a no-doubt center fielder. He gets on base and could join Bichette and Guerrero atop the Blue Jays’ lineup. He doesn’t strike out much, though those numbers are likely to climb in his KBO-to-MLB transition. Lee wouldn’t necessarily be the kind of signing the Blue Jays envisioned coming into a winter in which the most talented player ever was a legitimate and realistic target, but bringing him onboard unquestionably would make Toronto a better team than it is right now. — Passan

Cubs’ next move: The Cubs’ rotation is solid and has some help coming in Cade Horton, but I could see a standout lefty in the bullpen putting them over the top, making the pen a strength of the team. Luckily for them, the top reliever on the market, Josh Hader, is a lefty and one of the best closers in baseball. Being able to shift Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather into the eighth- and seventh-inning roles with Drew Smyly as a multirole left-handed option puts them in a better late-game strategic position for a potential playoff run. — McDaniel

Red Sox’s next move: The Red Sox could use help at second base and the outfield (especially if they use Masataka Yoshida at DH). Whit Merrifield can help at both positions, and while he doesn’t move the needle in a big way, he’s a useful utility player. And that still leaves plenty of room in the payroll to sign a starter. Jordan Montgomery might not be a No. 1, but one thing he has done since returning from Tommy John surgery is post: 30 starts in 2021, 32 in 2022 and 32 in 2023. The Red Sox had one starter make 30 starts over the past two seasons (Pivetta in 2022). When they last made the playoffs in 2021, they had three. Every team needs a couple of horses in the rotation and Montgomery fits. — Schoenfield

Mets’ next move: Sign Hader. I know the Mets are in on Yamamoto and they shouldn’t break off that pursuit. But new president of baseball operations David Stearns knows Hader well from their Milwaukee association and a two-headed back of the bullpen with Hader and Edwin Diaz would be epic. And it would make New York a bear to overcome in a playoff context. The Mets need to be targeted with their free agency splashes. Winning the Ohtani pursuit would have fit that objective, as would a successful wooing of Yamamoto, and Hader is another one of the few real impact free agents in this market. Those are the players the Mets should be all in on pursuing. — Doolittle

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

  • Associated Press

Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET

For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.

The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.

Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.

The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.

Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.

The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.

The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.

Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.

Top-ranked Texas “Arch Mania” is at a fever pitch in Texas with Arch Manning now the undisputed starting quarterback.

The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.

“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”

Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.

Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.

The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).

Big Ten lurking

The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.

Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.

“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”

The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.

Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.

Poll nuggets

• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.

• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.

• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.

• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.

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AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

Aug 11, 2025, 12:15 PM ET

The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.

Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.

With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.

Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.

All times Eastern

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.

2024 record: 10-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).

2024 record: 13-1

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN

Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network

Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.

2024 record: 6-7

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.

2024 record: 11-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1

Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network

Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC

Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.

2024 record: 12-2

Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

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August 11, 2025

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

  • Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET

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      Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.

Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.

I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.

All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)

Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.

The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)

Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.

The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas

Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.

The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.

The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)

I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.

The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)

The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.

The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas

Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.

The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)

I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.

The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)

This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.

The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)

The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.

The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami

This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.

The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)

I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.

The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)

Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.

The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)

This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.

The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)

The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.

The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)

The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.

The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)

With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.

The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)

Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.

The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)

Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.

The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)

I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.

The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)

There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.

The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)

The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.

The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5

The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.

The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)

Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.

The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)

The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.

The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)

Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.

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