The US is expected to add a record-setting 33 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in 2023, according to a new report, but 2024 will bring challenges to the industry.
The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie released their latest report, “US Solar Market Insight Q4 2023,” in which they report that third-quarter (Q3) additions of new solar totaled 6.5 gigawatts (GW) – a 35% year-over-year increase – as federal clean energy policies begin to take hold.
California and Texas led the US for new solar installations in Q3, and Indiana ranked third with 663 megawatts (MW) of new capacity as several large utility-scale projects came online. Fourteen states and Puerto Rico installed more than 100 MW of new solar capacity in Q3.
While economic challenges are beginning to impact the solar and storage industry, solar is still expected to be the largest source of generating capacity on the US grid by 2050.
SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said:
Solar remains the fastest-growing energy source in the United States, and despite a difficult economic environment, this growth is expected to continue for years to come.
To maintain this forecasted growth, we must modernize regulations and reduce bureaucratic roadblocks to make it easier for clean energy companies to invest capital and create jobs.
The residential solar segment installed a record 210,000 systems in Q3. However, the California Public Utilities Commission’s disastrous decision to gut the state’s rooftop solar incentives –resulting in an 80% drop in installations – and elevated US interest rates are expected to lead to a brief decline next year before growth resumes in 2025.
Elevated financing costs, transformer shortages, and interconnection bottlenecks are also impacting the utility-scale segment, which saw its lowest level of new contracts signed in a quarter since 2018.
However, improvements in the module supply chain have led to a record 12 GW of utility-scale deployment in the first nine months of 2023.
Solar accounts for 48% of all new electric generating capacity in the first three quarters of 2023, bringing total installed solar capacity in the US to 161 GW across 4.7 million installations. By 2028, US solar capacity is expected to reach 377 GW – enough to power more than 65 million homes.
Michelle Davis, head of solar research at Wood Mackenzie and lead author of the report, said:
The US solar industry is on a strong growth trajectory, with expectations of 55% growth this year and 10% growth in 2024.
Growth is expected to be slower starting in 2026 as various challenges like interconnection constraints become more acute. It’s critical that the industry continue to innovate to maximize the value that solar brings to an increasingly complex grid.
Interconnection reform, regulatory modernization, and increasing storage attachment rates will be key tools.
Electrek’s Take
Solar breaking capacity records in 2023 doesn’t surprise me – thank you, Inflation Reduction Act – but it certainly makes me happy to hear it from the SEIA. The solar industry is still going to grow in 2024, just not as quickly as it did this year.
There are a lot of moving parts in this revolutionary transition to clean energy, and next year, the industry and its supply chain is going to have to recalibrate on some important stuff.
There’s nothing it can do about the interest rates, and I don’t know how California is going to sort out its mess. But there are innovative startups coming up with better ways to calibrate the power on the grid, and those ideas are being launched commercially. As Davis says, interconnection reform and regulation improvements are needed to help ease the clean energy bottlenecks. Hopefully those bottleneck issues will be improved by government sooner rather than later.
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Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran.
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The CEOs of two major energy companies are monitoring the developments between Iran and Israel — but they aren’t about to make firm predictions on oil prices.
Both countries traded strikes over the weekend, after Israel targeted nuclear and military facilities in Iran on Friday, killing some of its top nuclear scientists and military commanders.
Speaking at the Energy Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, Lorenzo Simonelli, president and CEO of energy technology company Baker Hughes, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that “my experience has been, never try and predict what the price of oil is going to be, because there’s one sure thing: You’re going to be wrong.”
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Simonelli said the last 96 hours “have been very fluid,” and expressed hope that there would be a de-escalation in tensions in the region.
“As we go forward, we’ll obviously monitor the situation like everybody else is. It is moving very quickly, and we’re going to anticipate the aspect of what’s next,” he added, saying that the company will take a wait-and-see approach for its projects.
At the same conference, Meg O’Neill, CEO of Australian oil and gas giant Woodside Energy, likewise told CNBC that the company is monitoring the impact of the conflict on markets around the world.
She highlighted that forward prices were already experiencing “very significant” effects in light of the events of the past four days.
If supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are affected, “that would have even more significant effects on prices, as customers around the world would be scrambling to meet their own energy needs,” she added.
As of Sunday, the Strait remained open, according to an advisory from the Joint Maritime Information Center. It said, “There remains a media narrative on a potential blockade of the [Strait of Hormuz]. JMIC has no confirmed information pointing towards a blockade or closure, but will follow the situation closely.”
Iran was reportedly considering closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks.
O’Neill said that oil and gas prices are closely linked to geopolitics, citing as examples events that date back to World War II and the oil crisis in the 1970s.
Nevertheless, she would not make a firm prediction on the price of oil, saying, “there’s many things we can forecast. The price of oil in five years is not something I would try to put a bet on.”
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The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through it.
It is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration has described it as the “world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.”
A series of images of landscapes and wildlife from the Brigalow Belt region of Queensland near the town of St. George.
Colin Baker | Moment | Getty Images
Shares of Santos surged as much as 15.23% Monday, after it received a non-binding takeover offer of $18.72 billion by an Abu Dhabi’s National Oil Company-led group.
The move marks the biggest intraday jump in the Australian oil and gas producer’s shares since April 2020, LSEG data shows.
Prices of gold, the stalwart shelter in times of crises, rose. Investors flock to the precious metal amid uncertainty because it serves as a stable store of value that is mostly resistant against exogenous shocks, such as inflation or geopolitical conflicts.
And the dollar strengthened, as it is wont to do when the world looks ugly. Recall the dollar smile: The greenback will appreciate when things are really good because investors want in on U.S. risk assets, or when they are really bad because investors want in on the perceived safety of U.S. government bonds.
Stocks, the financial risk asset epitomized, fell across markets globally.
Despite the markets giving multiple indications we are entering a period of ugliness — or, at least, volatility — U.S. stocks still appear resilient, and the surge in oil prices only brings us back to where they were about three months ago as prices have been low since, CNBC’s Michael Santoli wrote.
The markets have, indeed, mostly shrugged off Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war, both of which are still brewing. But with the conflict between Israel and Iran still in its early days, it might pay to be extra cautious in the coming weeks.
Safe haven assets in demand Investors piled into safe-haven assets after Israel’s attack on Iran. After weeks of declining, the dollar index, a measurement of the strength of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, rallied 0.3%on Friday and was up 0.1% as of7:30 a.m. Singapore time Monday. Spot gold rose 0.38% and gold futures for August delivery were up 0.41% Monday, adding to Friday’s gains of 1.4% and 1.5% respectively.
Prices of oil jump Oil prices surged as investors feared a disruption to oil supply from Iran, which produced 3.305 million barrels per day in April, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report of May. As of Monday morning Singapore time, U.S. crude oil rose 2.22% to $74.62 a barrel, adding to its 7.26% jump on Friday. The global benchmark Brent climbed 2.22% to $75.88 a barrel, following Friday’s 7.02% surge.
[PRO]U.S. stocks still look resilient Even though stocks fell on the eruption of conflict between Israel and Iran, the market appeared resilient, wrote CNBC’s Michael Santoli. This week, while hostilities between the two Middle East countries will continue weighing on investors’ minds, they should not lose sight of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting, which concludes Wednesday.
And finally…
The Boeing 787-9 civil jet airplane of Vietnam Airlines performs its flight display at the 51st Paris International Airshow in Le Bourget near Paris, France. (Photo by: aviation-images.com/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
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