Investors are always on the lookout for untapped opportunities, especially in stocks that have been heavily discounted and now present promising opportunities for those prepared to wager on a recovery.
As the new year looms, a seasoned strategy, known as the Laggards trade, is witnessing a revival.
In its recent analysis, Goldman Sachs has shone a light on stocks that have trailed the broader market significantly on a year-to-date basis. Despite their underperformance, these Buy-rated securities hold considerable potential for robust gains in the upcoming year.
Laggards can often represent contrarian investment opportunities, as they may not have garnered bullish sentiment from investors yet, or the prevailing analyst consensus might be so low that even minor positive changes in fundamentals could result in significant performance gains.
The Laggard Phenomenon: The year 2023 has been a turbulent one for many stocks, with some sectors witnessing declines reminiscent of the tumultuous years of 2007 and 2020. However, history suggests a silver lining the laggards of one year often emerge as leaders in the first quarter of the next.
Goldman Sachs equity strategists, Deep Mehta and Tarun Lalwani, CFA, explained that despite a 37% YTD underperformance relative to the S&P 500 index, 2023s laggards could be next years leaders, as the market rally in November suggests signs of an early reversal.
Sector Shift: This years laggards differ from those of 2022, with Healthcare, Financials, and Industrials taking the lead. These stocks align with several key investment themes: low financial returns, lower quality scores, affordable valuations, and high growth prospects.Goldman Sachs Unveils 5 Clusters Of Stocks In The Laggards Trade
1) Laggards with Differentiated Bullish Views: These are Buy-rated stocks by Goldman Sachs analysts, who hold a contrarian opinion compared to less than half of Wall Street analysts. They have at least a 10% upside potential. Some of the stocks included in this group are as follows: Moderna Inc. MRNA : Upside to target 189%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -75% Pfizer Inc. PFE : Upside to target 66%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -63% Enphase Energy Inc. ENPH : Upside to target 48%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -79% Loading… Loading…
2) Laggards with Consensus-Defying Estimates: These stocks have Goldman Sachs estimates that significantly diverge from the consensus, suggesting a potential surprise factor. Highlighted below are some key stocks within this group: Darling Ingredients Inc. DAR : Upside to target 86%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -47% Shoals Technologies Group SHLS : Upside to target 89%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -60% ANGI Homeservices Inc. ANGI : Upside to target 84%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -16%
Read also: Will Novembers Turkey Rally Set Stage For Decembers Santa Claus Rally For Stocks?
3) Growth at Reasonable Valuations: These are Buy-rated laggards projected to have double-digit topline growth in 2024 and 2025, with a Price-Earnings-Growth ratio below 1.0. Included in this group are the following notable stocks: Array Technologies Inc. ARRY : Upside to target 89%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -60% First Solar Inc. FSLR : Upside to target 72%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -13%
4) Laggards with Rebounding Margins: These stocks are expected to show positive sales growth and improving operating margins in 2024 compared to 2023. The following represents a selection of stocks categorized in this group: Bath & Body Works Inc. BBWI : Upside to target 45%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -39% Sensata Technologies Holding ST : Upside to target 45%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -37%
5) Laggards with Superior CROCI: These are stocks with a consistent Cash Return on Capital Invested (CROCI) greater than the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), indicating efficient capital use and profitability. Key stocks within this group are listed below: Aptiv PLC APTV : Upside to target 52%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -29% Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. BMY : Upside to target 38%, YTD underperformance vs. S&P 500 -50%
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Donald Trump has said he would try to return territory to Ukraine as he prepares to meet Vladimir Putin and lay the groundwork for a deal to bring an end to the war.
“Russia has occupied a big portion of Ukraine. They’ve occupied some very prime territory. We’re going to try and get some of that territory back for Ukraine,” the US president said at a White House news conference ahead of Friday’s summit in Alaska.
Mr Trump also said: “There’ll be some land swapping going on. I know that through Russia and through conversations with everybody, to the good of Ukraine.”
He said he’s going to see what Mr Putin “has in mind” to end the three-and-a-half-year full-scale invasion.
Image: Donald Trump speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters
And he said if it’s a “fair deal,” he will share it with European and NATO leaders, as well as Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who have been liaising closely with Washington ahead of the meeting.
Asked if Mr Zelenskyy was invited to the summit with Mr Putin in Alaska, Mr Trump said the Ukrainian leader “wasn’t a part of it”.
“I would say he could go, but he’s gone to a lot of meetings. You know, he’s been there for three and a half years – nothing happened,” Mr Trump added.
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The US president said Mr Putin wants to get the war “over with” and “get involved” in possible talks but acknowledged Moscow’s attacks haven’t stopped.
“I’ve said that a few times and I’ve been disappointed because I’d have a great call with him and then missiles would be lobbed into Kyiv or some other place,” he said.
Mr Trump said he will tell Mr Putin “you’ve got to end this war, you’ve got to end it,” but that “it’s not up to me” to make a deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Image: Vladimir Putin is set to meet Donald Trump in Alaska. Pic: Reuters
Zelenskyy says Russia ‘wants to buy time’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russia “wants to buy time, not end the war”.
“It is obvious that the Russians simply want to buy time, not end the war,” he wrote in a post on X, after a phone call with Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Image: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Pic: Reuters
“The situation on the battlefield and Russia’s wicked strikes on civilian infrastructure and ordinary people prove this clearly.”
Mr Zelenskyy said the two “agreed that no decisions concerning Ukraine’s future and the security of our people can be made without Ukraine’s participation”, just as “there can be no decisions without clear security guarantees”.
Sanctions against Russia must remain in force and be “constantly strengthened,” he added.
European leaders meet ahead of call with Trump
Meanwhile, European officials have been holding meetings ahead of a phone call with Mr Trump on Wednesday.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has been speaking to foreign ministers virtually, saying on X that work “on more sanctions against Russia, more military support for Ukraine and more support for Ukraine’s budgetary needs and accession process to join the EU” is under way.
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‘Russians want to carry on fighting’
Over the weekend, European leaders released a joint statement, welcoming Mr Trump’s “work to stop the killing in Ukraine”.
“We are convinced that only an approach that combines active diplomacy, support to Ukraine and pressure on the Russian Federation to end their illegal war can succeed,” read the statement.
It was signed by UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“We underline our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity,” they said.
Despite Donald Trump’s efforts to convince Vladimir Putin to commit to a ceasefire and negotiations, Russian attacks on Ukraine have only intensified in the past few months.
Ukraine’s president has said that, in the past week, Russia launched more than 1,000 air bombs, nearly 1,400 drones and multiple missile strikes on Ukraine.
On 9 July, Russia carried out its largest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the war, launching more than 740 drones and missiles, breaking its records from previous weeks.
Furthermore, Mr Zelenskyy has said Russia is preparing for new offensives.
He described it as a “feel out” meeting “to see what the parameters” are, and stressed “it’s not up to me to make a deal.”
A strategic preemption perhaps, setting expectations low, and preparing the public for failure.
But he remains wedded to the notion that “land swapping” will shape any deal to end the war in Ukraine.
“Good stuff” and “bad stuff” for both sides, he said, positioning himself as the pragmatic mediator between the two.
He expressed irritation with Mr Zelenskyy’s assertion that he doesn’t have the constitutional power to concede land, though did say he hopes to get “prime territory” back for Ukraine.
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not be attending the summit. Pic: AP
The dealmaker-in-chief
Mr Trump promised to brief the Ukrainian president and European leaders immediately after his meeting with Mr Putin.
And he voiced confidence in his ability to quickly assess the potential for a deal, boasting his business acumen.
“At the end of the meeting, probably the first two minutes, I’ll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made,” he said.
Asked how he would know, he replied: “That’s what I do, make deals.”
US EV sales are surging as prices dip and automakers pile on record incentives to clear out inventory before the $7,500 EV tax credit vanishes, according to Kelley Blue Book’s latest numbers.
The average price for a new EV in July was $55,689, down 2.2% from June and 4.2% lower than a year ago. Leading the price drop was Tesla, which averaged $52,949 last month, down 2.4% from June and a hefty 9.1% year-over-year.
Tesla sweetened the deal with bigger incentives in July, which helped boost sales compared to June, though they still trailed last year’s numbers. A higher share of the more affordable Model 3 and Model Y also helped push Tesla’s average price down.
Across the industry, EV incentives hit their highest level ever, averaging 17.5% of the vehicle’s price – a more than 40% jump from last year. Automakers and dealers have been racing to move EVs before federal incentives expire on October 1.
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The strategy is working. Cox Automotive says July EV sales topped 130,000 – up 20% year-over-year – making it the second-strongest month for US EV sales on record.
Stephanie Valdez Streaty, senior analyst at Cox Automotive, said, “The urgency created by the [Trump] administration’s decision to sunset government-backed, IRA-era EV incentives was expected to create serious demand for EVs in the short term. If last month is any measure, Mission Accomplished. July sales were near an all-time monthly record. At this pace, Q3 will be the best ever and then some, as buyers jump in before the big incentives dry up.”
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