Passan: Ohtani’s new contract is just his latest feat to shock the world
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Jeff Passan, ESPN
OF ALL HIS incredible abilities, Shohei Ohtani‘s capacity to shock tops the list. For the past six years, Ohtani has left us mere mortals slack-jawed as he conquered Major League Baseball, a sport that typically evolves over decades, by redefining the capabilities of a single player. In a game where players hit or pitch, he does both — and to say it so plainly undersells his excellence in each endeavor. He is the most talented baseball player in the century-and-a-half-long history of the game.
And yet on Saturday, we found there is room for another surprise. This announcement went beyond his customary flabbergasting: Ohtani agreed with the Los Angeles Dodgers on a contract that would guarantee him $700 million for 10 years, with a significant chunk to be deferred until after the deal’s conclusion.
To many, the decision seemed preordained: the best player going to the best organization. It was the fashion in which it happened — with a number, 700 million, far exceeding the highest expectations — that imbued it with the sort of oomph that accompanies Ohtani’s longest home runs and angriest fastballs. From L.A. to Tokyo, the fanciest athlete alive, the one who elevated what’s possible unlike anyone before him, secured a contract that matched his magnitude.
The agreement is the biggest ever in professional team sports, nearly twice as large as the next-best free agent deal. It left not just baseball or the sporting world but the entire universe gobsmacked. In a time when anything seems possible, Ohtani’s ability to amaze is unmatched.
THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL free agency in sports since LeBron James‘ Decision ended with a chaotic final 30 hours in which erroneous reports had Ohtani on the verge of an announcement, on a plane to Canada and even agreeing to sign with the Toronto Blue Jays. Consumed by the possibility of Ohtani joining their team, fans flocked to flight-tracking websites to monitor the whereabouts of a private jet going from Southern California to Toronto. When the door swung open, Robert Herjavec, the businessman and “Shark Tank” star, emerged, much to the deflation of a Blue Jays fan base frothing at the notion that Ohtani would choose Toronto.
He didn’t.
Ohtani’s announcement came via Instagram at 3:03 p.m. ET, below a slightly blurry Dodgers logo with a caption in which he first apologized for taking so long to make his choice. The decision all of baseball had been waiting for was here, as Ohtani shared he was moving up Interstate 5 from the Los Angeles Angels to the Dodgers.
This was the team always best positioned to leverage Ohtani’s unparalleled marketing value, to take a superstar who made Anaheim a baseball destination and create a mutually beneficial business relationship that further enriches both. While impossible to say how much money the franchise will make with Ohtani, 29, wearing Dodger blue, it’s the sort of number that left ownership pledging it would not be outbid for him in free agency. That proclamation held, and it’s easy to understand why: Ohtani is baseball’s lone crossover star, someone whose unique talents have transcended a sport with waning cultural resonance. He is on the level of LeBron, Messi and Mahomes, athletes for whom a mononym suffices.
Shohei became Shohei, of course, because of his accomplishments. He won his second American League MVP award unanimously this season despite missing the final month due to an elbow injury requiring reconstructive surgery that will keep him from pitching in 2024. In fewer than 500 at-bats as designated hitter, he still whacked 44 home runs and posted an OPS of 1.066. Over 23 starts, he struck out 167 in 132 innings and booked a 3.14 ERA. The previous year, his ERA was 2.33 and his OPS .875. The year before that: a .965 OPS, 3.18 ERA and one more unanimous MVP.
To suggest that sort of production will continue toward the end of the contract, when Ohtani will be 39, would be silly. But then to suggest a player can hit and pitch and do both at extraordinary levels was equally foolhardy, and here we are. The history of pitchers returning to the mound successfully after a second major elbow procedure within five years is short. But then this is Ohtani.
REGARDLESS OF HOW audacious that $700 million number might be, executives around baseball on Saturday agreed almost unanimously: The Dodgers pulled off a coup. Not just thieving Ohtani from Toronto and leaving the Blue Jays and their fans jilted brides. Not just staying within the rules to circumnavigate the competitive balance tax. The smartest team in baseball, the one with 10 division championships in 11 seasons (and 106 wins in the one season without), the organization that excels at analytics, scouting, drafting and player development, domestically and internationally, also happened to be moneyed enough to offer that kind of sum — as much for a single season of play (without accounting for deferrals) as some teams pay their entire rosters — and dare Ohtani to turn it down.
Besides, the eye-popping value of the contract is somewhat misleading. The Dodgers are going to pay Ohtani $700 million, but the present-day value of the contract will be markedly lower. The details matter. How much of the money is deferred (“a majority,” said a source) and how long the deferrals last will give a better sense of how good of a deal this might be for the Dodgers, minutiae that will offer a better understanding when the deal is official sometime midweek. Major League Baseball discounts deferrals when calculating the amount teams are charged in the competitive balance tax accounting system, and rather than the $70 million a year a straight contract would cost, Ohtani’s deal is expected to wind up somewhere in the range of $40 million to $50 million a year.
Which opens up a world of possibilities when it comes to further building a team around him. The Dodgers already have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, a pair of future Hall of Famers, atop their lineup. They’ve got Will Smith, Max Muncy and James Outman behind them. Their rotation is a mess of TBDs at the moment, but Ohtani’s deal buys the Dodgers the leeway to spend plenty to fill it running a payroll that blows well beyond the first luxury tax threshold at $237 million but doesn’t necessarily exceed the $293.3 million mark Los Angeles hit in 2022.
So, yes, the Dodgers certainly will be in the bidding for Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose suitors include the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and even the Blue Jays, who would hate to be spurned twice. Adding him and Ohtani isn’t out of the question. By Game 1 of the 2024 season, which sees the Dodgers take on the San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea, Yamamoto could be the starting pitcher, with Ohtani hitting behind Betts and Freeman. It would be must-watch TV, whether in the United States or abroad.
With Ohtani in the fold, the Dodgers’ worldwide appeal only grows. When Hideo Nomo arrived in Los Angeles nearly 30 years ago, he was a phenom whose pipeline-opening performance captivated audiences and paved the way for Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, Yu Darvish and Ohtani to thrive in MLB. If the Dodgers weren’t synonymous with Japanese baseball before, they’ll certainly be now. And with a new generation of players primed to make the leap — Yamamoto, brilliant 22-year-old right-hander Roki Sasaki, slugging third baseman Munetaka Murakami and so many others — Los Angeles could cement itself as the American outpost for all the best players.
Ohtani will be at the center of it. Following a physical he is expected to pass even with his recently repaired elbow, he will be a Dodger. The rest of the sport, consequently, is on notice. This is Dodgers 2.0, bigger and better than ever, with the best player alive at the heart of it. And as spring training approaches and the Dodgers round out their roster and the full picture of this superteam’s future comes into focus, we’ll look back on the tortuous — and, for Toronto, torturous — 30 hours that delivered Shohei Ohtani to Los Angeles and remember them for their shock, sure, but for their awe too.
It all comes down to this. The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets host the St. Louis Blues in the 200th Game 7 in Stanley Cup playoffs history Sunday (7 p.m. ET, TBS).
One team will advance to the second round, while the other will get an early start to the offseason — and try to fix what went wrong.
For the Blues, this is the club’s 19th all-time Game 7, the most of any non-Original Six team. They have gone 10-8 in Games 7s, with the most recent one being the 2019 Stanley Cup Final against the Boston Bruins, which they won 4-1.
This version of the Jets has much less Game 7 history on which to draw; their only Game 7 was a second-round victory over the Nashville Predators in 2018.
Who wins this one? We’ve gathered the ESPN hockey family to identify the key players to watch in the contest — as well as their final score predictions.
Who is the one key player you’ll be watching in Jets-Blues?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: If he plays, it’s Mark Scheifele. The hit in Game 5 from Brayden Schenn and/or Radek Faksa generated quite a bit of conversation about what is arguably the most physically demanding series in the first round. Scheifele’s play this season and this series prior to the hit reinforces what makes him a legit top-line center in this league. We saw how the Jets maneuvered around his absence for the final two periods of Game 5, while Game 6 proved why they need contributions from everyone if he can’t go.
But again, that’s if Scheifele plays. He skated Saturday in a tracksuit, with Scott Arniel saying the center will be a game-time decision Sunday.
Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: Connor Hellebuyck is the obvious answer here for me because he’s been “Vezina” at home (especially Game 2) and “Vezina from Temu” on the road.
Hellebuyck has allowed four or more goals in seven straight road playoff games, which ties the second longest such streak in Stanley Cup playoff history. But Game 7 is at home. The pressure is on but he’s in comfortable confines, surrounded by a “Whiteout.” Which version of Hellebuyck do we get Sunday night?
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Connor Hellebuyck, of course. Has there been a Jekyll/Hyde performance like this in recent years?
The Vezina finalist can play lights-out at home and like a fish out of water on the road. Does that trend continue in Game 7? What version of the goalie shows up for this one?
But as a bonus, I’ll toss Pavel Buchnevich into this equation. He’s been driving the Blues’ offense, and if Hellebuyck is on his A-game then St. Louis is going to need Buchnevich to channel his hat trick energy from Game 3 to help the Blues pull off a stunning road win.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: Jordan Binnington renewed his title as one of the NHL’s most clutch goaltenders with his 31-save performance in Team Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off championship win over the U.S. — including six saves in overtime. He first earned it in 2019, backstopping the Blues to the Stanley Cup with Game 7 wins over Dallas and Boston.
Now he’s got a chance to reestablish those credentials.
Binnington had a 0.82 goals-against average and a .968 save percentage in those prior Game 7s. While Hellebuyck has been terrible in St. Louis, Binnington hasn’t been much better in Winnipeg, generating an .861 save percentage and a 3.44 goals-against average and giving up four goals in two of the three games. But as 4 Nations showed, Binnington can meet the moment. (Although this time, Kyle Connor will actually be in the lineup for the opposition. Not that we’re bitter or anything.)
The final score will be _____.
Clark: 4-3 Jets. There have been a few themes in this series. The first being that offense hasn’t been an issue — the teams have combined to score more than six goals in all but one game. The second is that the home team has won every game; I say that continues, and the Jets advance.
Öcal: 6-5 Jets. Hellebyuck doesn’t have his best game, but the Jets outscore that challenge, and Kyle Connor scores another third-period goal in this series to win it.
Shilton: 5-4 Jets. The Jets have been too good on home ice to let this one slip away. That’s not to say a St. Louis win would be surprising, but even if Hellebuyck is off, Winnipeg’s offense should be able to provide enough buffer that the Jets can squeak through with a narrow victory to advance.
Wyshynski: 5-3 Jets. The Jets would be toast if this game were played in St. Louis because it’s a demonstrable fact that Hellebuyck is a disaster on the road in the playoffs. He’s slightly below replacement at home in the postseason, but Winnipeg will take that considering his three removals on the road.
The Blues are first in the playoffs in 5-on-5 offense and goals-for percentage at home. But Winnipeg is second in both categories. Hellebuyck calms down, and the offense gets ratcheted up at home, especially now that Nikolaj Ehlers has a game under his belt, having not played since April 12 due to a foot injury.
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Ryan S. Clark
Many of Mikko Rantanen’s greatest moments have come in a Colorado Avalanche sweater. It’s just that the most defining moment of his career came at their expense.
It wasn’t enough that the Dallas Stars were trailing by two goals. It was also the fact that Rantanen scored a hat trick in a string of four unanswered goals that saw his current team, the host Stars, eliminate his old team, the Avalanche, in a 4-2 win Saturday in Game 7 of the Western Conference quarterfinals at the American Airlines Center.
“Obviously, the feeling was incredible to win a series,” Rantanen said in his postgame media availability. “This series was not exactly what I expected. I expected a seven-game series, even before Game 1. The ups and downs in the series. … Belief was there with the group the whole time. Obviously, I was able to make a pay to get the first one and the crowd started to roll.”
The Stars, attempting to reach the conference finals a third straight time, will advance to the semifinal round in which they will await the winner of series featuring the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets. That encounter will be decided Sunday in Game 7 in Winnipeg.
Soon, the Stars’ collective focus will shift to another Central Division foe. But for now? The attention before, during, and after the game, was on Rantanen.
Part of what made the Avalanche-Stars series arguably the most intriguing first-round series in either conference was the fact it placed two 100-point teams that are in championship window against each other. But, it also came with several subplots with the notable being the team that traded quite a bit to land Rantanen — with the hope he could win them a Stanley Cup now — needed him to defeat the team that he won a championship with back in 2022.
With one assist through the first four games, there was a discussion about if the Stars could manage to win with a sputtering Rantanen on top of the fact they were already without two of their best players in defenseman Miro Heiskanen and forward Jason Robertson.
Rantanen responded with a three-point performance in Game 5, and a four-point performance in Game 6 only to then have a hand in each goal on Saturday. His first goal came on the power-play with 12:12 remaining in the third period when he found enough space to fire a wrist shot that beat MacKenzie Blackwood.
Then came the game-tying goal and the significance it carried. The Stars went on the power play went Avalanche forward Jack Drury was called for holding. Drury part of the trade package the Carolina Hurricanes used to get Rantanen in late January before they would trade him to the Stars.
Drury’s penalty opened the door for Rantanen to score a game-tying goal that might be one of, if not, his signature salvo. Rantanen skated into the Avalanche zone in a 1-on-3 before he split two players before going around the net for a wrap-around goal that went off the skate of Samuel Girard with 6:14 left.
Three minutes later, the Stars received another power-play opportunity that saw Rantanen along with another former Avalanche forward in Matt Duchene work together to find Wyatt Johnston for the game-winning goal.
In the final minute, the Avalanche pulled Blackwood in the attempt to grab a late goal and force over time. Instead? Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger withstood a barrage that officially ended when Stars forward Tyler Seguin got the puck out of the zone only for Rantanen to skate in on an open net for the hat trick with three seconds left.
“I couldn’t care less who scored for them, I really couldn’t,” Avalanche captain and left winger Gabriel Landeskog said when asked about what it was like to watch Rantanen score a hat trick. “Mikko is one of my best friends and I love him, but I couldn’t care if he scored or if somebody else scored.”
For eight full seasons, Rantanen was part of a homegrown movement that saw the Avalanche go from finishing with what was then the worst record in the salary cap era back in 2016-17 to become a perennial favorite to win the Stanley Cup, which did they did in 2023, while also becoming a model for the need to build through the draft.
Building through stars such as Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Landeskog and Rantanen allowed the Avalanche to become a success. As did the moves they made to get other key figures like Valeri Nichushkin and Devon Toews.
Like all teams in a championship window, the Avs were facing the prospect of possibly making a difficult decision. They had yet to agree to a new contract with Rantanen, who was a pending unrestricted free agent. Then, came the blockbuster trade that few throughout the league saw coming.
The Avalanche traded Rantanen in a three-team trade that saw them get Martin Necas and Drury along with two draft picks. Rantanen’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes was limited to just two goals and six points in 13 games.
Despite the fact the Hurricanes are also among that cadre of championship contenders, Rantanen struggled to find cohesion in Raleigh. Rather than run the risk of watching leave for nothing in free agency, the Hurricanes put out feelers to a few teams with the Stars being one of them.
A long-time admirer of Rantanen, the Stars packaged two first-round picks, three second-round picks and former prized prospect Logan Stankoven to get Rantanen. They then signed him to an eight-year contract worth $12 million annually.
“It’s two things: It’s where our team’s at, and it’s Mikko Rantanen,” Stars general manager Jim Nill told ESPN back in March.
Rantanen finished the regular season with five goals and 18 points in 20 games prior to the showdown with his former team.
Not only did Rantanen’s hat trick condemn his former team to their second first-round exit since winning the Stanley Cup, but it continued a theme of former Avalanche eliminating their previous employers.
The Avalanche and Stars faced each other in last season’s Western Conference semifinal that saw Duchene, a former Colorado first-round pick, score the game-winning goal.
A year later, it was another former Avalanche first-round pick who delivered the devastating blow.
“It seems pretty fitting,” Johnston said about Rantanen. “Obviously, we want to win for each other and I think that goes a little extra when it’s a guy like that who is such a big part of our team and was there for a long time and everyone knows the trade that went on. It’s so awesome. We’re so happy as a group for him.”
As if Rantanen scoring a hat trick in a four-goal comeback wasn’t enough, there’s also the fact that this is now the ninth consecutive Game 7 that Stars coach Peter DeBoer has won his career.
DeBoer’s nine wins in Game 7s broke a tie with Darryl Sutter for the most in NHL history. It was also DeBoer’s third game 7 wins with the Stars.
“I felt something was going to happen,” DeBoer said. “But I could not have predicted that.”
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