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Does Brexit matter anymore?  

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016 has been the driving, and dividing, force in British politics ever since the referendum campaign.

It seeded the turmoil inside the Conservative Party, which led to five different prime ministers taking over in Number 10.

The public grew tired of all the delay and argument in parliament and handed Boris Johnson his “stonking” victory at the last general thanks to his promise to “Get Brexit Done”.

That was one thing Mr Johnson did deliver, but it continued to bedevil his party as Rishi Sunak found out when he had to deliver the Windsor declaration under threat from Washington DC.

Every Conservative prime minister since David Cameron has posed as a committed leaver, vowing to deliver the will of the people as reflected in the 52% to 48% vote to leave.

They must be wondering why they bothered. In opinion polls, Brexit does not feature in the top 10 issues of concern to voters.

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Clear majorities – 75% and upwards – think Brexit has damaged the economy.

And, as COVID and the cost of living came to dominate the agenda, the Conservatives have been consistently trailing Labour by some 20 points or so for more than a year.

Given he now looks as if he is going to be the next prime minister – and given he was a Remainer who initially wanted there to be a second referendum to reverse the result – some of the Labour leader’s allies are wondering why Sir Keir Starmer is so reluctant to talk about closer relations with the European Union.

As this year draws to a close, politicians and other occupants of the Westminster bubble are drawing up their annual audits of how things stand with extra enthusiasm because a general election must take place at some point in the next 13 months.

At the Resolution Foundation conference in the QEII Centre, there were guffaws when the Labour leader was asked why he has been writing about “the possibilities of Brexit”.

Boris Johnson had success with his 'Get Brexit Done' message
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Boris Johnson had success with his ‘Get Brexit Done’ message. Pic: AP

There was another striking moment at another meeting just off Parliament Square: UK In A Changing Europe’s annual report on the “state of public opinion”. Participants in public meetings are usually very cautious about making firm predictions.

Yet when I asked a panel comprising the author of the 2019 Conservative manifesto, a Labour candidate at the next election and two leading political academics what they thought the outcome of the general election would be, all four of them predicted a majority Labour government – without hesitation or deviation.

They were speaking days before the latest Tory bust-up and cabinet resignation over immigration policy, which is unlikely to have give the Conservative Party a boost.

Some on the Labour frontbench are more enthusiastic about Europe than others.

David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, says that closer ties with the EU are his “number one priority” and does not wholly discard the dream of rejoining one day.

That is a long way off.

Sir Keir has muttered that he would like to “rewrite” a better trade agreement after 2025 – but he has also ruled out the UK re-entering either the customs union or the single market.

Both would be prerequisites for EU membership, as well as the principal triggers of economic benefit, according to financial experts.

Labour is well aware that the single market would mean freedom of movement of EU citizens in and out of the UK. Leave campaigners played up the immigration issue, which continues to be a major concern of the electorate, even though the record levels of migration since the referendum have been by people from outside the EU.

Those arguing for a more positive stance from Sir Keir point out that an overwhelming majority of those who intend to vote Labour are in favour of closer relations with the EU.

Indeed, it would encourage 34% to vote Labour. Another third, 38%, say it would have no impact on their voting intentions.

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The catch is that most of those either pro or indifferent are going to vote Labour anyway. More detailed examination of polling carried out for UK In A Changing Europe explains why Sir Keir is unlikely to make renegotiating closer ties with the EU a major part his election campaign.

To secure a comfortable majority, Labour needs to appeal beyond its core supporters – winning over some of those who voted Tory in 2019, including those who switched to Boris Johnson in the so-called “Red Wall”: less affluent, pro-Brexit constituencies in the Midlands and North of England.

Some 39% of those who voted for Brexit in 2016 and Conservative in 2019 say they would be less likely to switch to Labour if it reopened the question of EU membership, compared to a mere 14% who would be attracted. They would be put off even though they have soured on voting Leave.

Startling new findings that a narrow majority of Leave voters, 52%, now say the economy is worse off because of Brexit and that a clear majority of them, 58%, say they would vote Remain in another referendum.

Mr Sunak and the Conservatives are trying to keep their 2019 voters by branding Sir Keir an EU lover.

Sir Keir is advocating more cooperation with the EU on illegal migration across the channel. At PMQs, Mr Sunak claimed that would mean accepting “100,000” coming in from the EU.

Unlike the stalled Rwanda scheme, the Conservative government’s own increased cooperation with, and payments to, the French authorities do seem to have reduced numbers crossing the Channel.

Mr Sunak however insists this joint working is “not for reasons of sentimentality”. He frames it instead in competitive terms repeatedly pointing out that numbers crossing into Britain are “down by a third” this year, while migration into the EU across the Mediterranean is “up by 80%”.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer at the state opening of parliament in 2023
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British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer at the state opening of parliament in 2023

In a similar vein, the prime minister brandishes any economic statistics which compare the UK favourably to European performance and ignores contradictory indicators. None of this has endeared the UK to its former EU partners.

Mr Sunak has avoided or refused routine meetings with his EU counterparts. In Opposition, Labour has sought them eagerly and plans to establish routine contacts if it is in government after the general election.

Yet Sir Keir is determined that there will be no outbreak of euro-enthusiasm in his ranks.

Whatever the opinion polls say, or the experts predict, the Labour leadership really do not believe that they have the next election in the bag yet.

To stamp out complacency and to quite literally wipe smiles of faces, the shadow cabinet were treated to a compulsory gloomy PowerPoint presentation last week. It pointed out that the issues which determined the results of previous elections were often not even on the radar twelve months before the vote.

Brexit, that most polarizing of British political issues this century, has dropped out of sight. Between now and the election Sir Keir will resist Conservative goading grimly, determined to say as little as possible about Labour’s plans for Europe beyond occasionally bemoaning “the smouldering cinders of the bridges the Tories have burnt”.

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PM could lift controversial benefit cap in budget – as Farage makes two big election promises

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PM could lift controversial benefit cap in budget - as Farage makes two big election promises

Sir Keir Starmer could decide to lift the two-child benefit cap in the autumn budget, amid further pressure from Nigel Farage to appeal to traditional Labour voters.

The Reform leader will use a speech this week to commit his party to scrapping the two-child cap, as well as reinstating winter fuel payments in full.

The prime minister – who took Westminster by surprise at PMQs by revealing his intention to row back on the winter fuel cut – has previously said he would like to lift the two-child cap if the government could afford it.

There are now mounting suggestions an easing of the controversial benefit restriction may be unveiled when the chancellor delivers the budget later this year.

According to The Observer, Sir Keir told cabinet ministers he wanted to axe the measure – and asked the Treasury to look for ways to fund the move.

It comes after the government delayed the release of its child poverty strategy, which is expected to recommend the divisive cap – introduced by former Tory chancellor George Osborne – is scrapped.

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Why did Labour delay their child poverty strategy?

Ministers have already said any changes to winter fuel payments, triggered by mounting political pressure, would only be made when the government’s next fiscal event rolls round.

The Financial Times reported it may be done by restoring the benefit to all pensioners, with the cash needed being clawed back from the wealthy through the tax system.

The payment was taken from more than 10 million pensioners this winter after it became means-tested, and its unpopularity was a big factor in Labour’s battering at recent elections.

Before Wednesday’s PMQs, the prime minister and chancellor had insisted there would be no U-turn.

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Will winter fuel U-turn happen?

Many Labour MPs have called for the government to do more to help the poorest in society, amid mounting concern over the impact of wider benefit reforms.

Former prime minister Gordon Brown this week told Sky News the two-child cap was “pretty discriminatory” and could be scrapped by raising money through a tax on the gambling industry.

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Brown questioned over winter fuel U-turn

Mr Farage, who believes Reform UK can win the next election, will this week accuse Sir Keir of being “out of touch with working people”.

In a speech first reported by The Sunday Telegraph, he is expected to say: “It’s going to be these very same working people that will vote Reform at the next election and kick Labour out of government.”

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First renationalised train service starts today – but not how you’d have hoped…

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First renationalised train service starts today - but not how you'd have hoped…

South Western Railway (SWR) has been renationalised this weekend as part of the government’s transition towards Great British Railways.

The train operator officially came under public ownership at around 2am on Sunday – and the first journey, the 5.36am from Woking, was partly a rail replacement bus service due to engineering works.

So what difference will renationalisation make to passengers and will journeys be cheaper?

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

What is nationalisation?

Nationalisation means the government taking control of industries or companies, taking them from private to public ownership.

Britain’s railway lines are currently run by train operating companies as franchises under fixed-term contracts, but Labour have said they want to take control of the lines when those fixed terms end.

In its manifesto, the party vowed to return rail journeys to public ownership within five years by establishing Great British Railways (GBR) to run both the network tracks and trains.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said renationalising SWR was “a watershed moment in our work to return the railways to the service of passengers”.

“But I know that most users of the railway don’t spend much time thinking about who runs the trains – they just want them to work,” she added. “That’s why operators will have to meet rigorous performance standards and earn the right to be called Great British Railways.”

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How reliable are UK trains?

How will ticket prices be affected?

Labour have argued cutting off payments flowing into the private sector could save the taxpayer £150m a year.

But the government has not explicitly promised the savings made from nationalisation will be used to subsidise fees.

It is unlikely rail fares will fall as a result of nationalisation, rail analyst William Barter told Sky News.

“The government could mandate fare cuts if it wanted to, but there’s no sign it wants to,” he said.

“At the moment, I’m sure they would want to keep the money rather than give it back to passengers. The current operator aims to maximise revenue, and there’s no reason the government would want them to do anything differently under government control.”

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UK has most expensive train tickets in Europe

What difference will it make for passengers?

Britain’s railways are frequently plagued by delays, cuts to services and timetable issues, but Mr Barter said nationalisation will make very little day-to-day difference to passengers.

There was “no reason to think” the move would improve issues around delays and cancellation of services, he said.

“It’s going to be the same people, the same management,” he explained.

“The facts of what the operator has to deal with in terms of revenue, infrastructure, reliability, all the rest of it – they haven’t changed.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Which services are being next to be nationalised?

In the longer term, the move is likely to bring “a degree of certainty compared with relatively short-term franchises”, Mr Barter said, noting the government would only want to renationalise a franchise “because in one way or another something very bad is going on in that franchise, so in a way it can only get better”.

It also means the government will have greater accountability for fixing problems with punctuality and cancellations.

Mr Barter said: “If this is the government’s baby, then they’re going to do their best to make sure it doesn’t fail. So rather than having a franchise holder they can use as a political scapegoat, it’s theirs now.”

He added: “In the short term, I don’t think you’d expect to see any sort of change. Long term, you’ll see stability and integration bringing about gradual benefits. There’s not a silver bullet of that sort here.”

Next to be renationalised later this year will be c2c and Greater Anglia, while seven more companies will transfer over when their franchises end in the future.

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Sir Alan Bates attacks ‘kangaroo court’ Post Office scheme after ‘take it or leave it’ offer

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Sir Alan Bates attacks 'kangaroo court' Post Office scheme after 'take it or leave it' offer

Sir Alan Bates has accused the government of presiding over a “quasi kangaroo court” for Post Office compensation.

Writing in The Sunday Times, the campaigner, who led a years-long effort for justice for sub-postmasters, revealed he had been given a “take it or leave it” offer that was less than half of his original claim.

“The sub-postmaster compensation schemes have been turned into quasi-kangaroo courts in which the Department for Business and Trade sits in judgement of the claims and alters the goal posts as and when it chooses,” he said.

“Claims are, and have been, knocked back on the basis that legally you would not be able to make them, or that the parameters of the scheme do not extend to certain items.”

More than 900 sub-postmasters were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015 after faulty Horizon accounting software made it look as if money was missing from their accounts.

Many are still waiting for compensation despite the previous government saying those who had their convictions quashed were eligible for £600,000 payouts.

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‘It still gives me nightmares’

After the Post Office terminated his contract over a false shortfall in 2003, Sir Alan began seeking out other sub-postmasters and eventually took the Post Office to court.

More on Post Office Scandal

A group litigation order (GLO) scheme was set up to achieve redress for 555 claimants who took the Post Office to the High Court between 2017 and 2019.

Sir Alan, who was portrayed by actor Toby Jones in ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, has called for an independent body to be created to deliver compensation.

He added that promises the compensation schemes would be “non-legalistic” had turned out to be “worthless”.

It is understood around 80% of postmasters in Sir Alan’s group have accepted a full and final redress, or been paid most of their offer.

Read more:
Post Office scandal explained

Who are the key figures in the scandal?

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‘Lives were destroyed’

A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson told Sky News: “We pay tribute to all the postmasters who’ve suffered from this scandal, including Sir Alan for his tireless campaign for justice, and we have quadrupled the total amount paid to postmasters since entering government.

“We recognise there will be an absence of evidence given the length of time which has passed, and we therefore aim to give the benefit of the doubt to postmasters as far as possible.

“Anyone unhappy with their offer can have their case reviewed by a panel of experts, which is independent of the government.”

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