Voters have changed their opinions about Brexit, but does it still matter to them? | Adam Boulton

Published

2 years ago

December 10, 2023

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Does Brexit matter anymore?

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016 has been the driving, and dividing, force in British politics ever since the referendum campaign.

It seeded the turmoil inside the Conservative Party, which led to five different prime ministers taking over in Number 10.

The public grew tired of all the delay and argument in parliament and handed Boris Johnson his “stonking” victory at the last general thanks to his promise to “Get Brexit Done”.

That was one thing Mr Johnson did deliver, but it continued to bedevil his party as Rishi Sunak found out when he had to deliver the Windsor declaration under threat from Washington DC.

Every Conservative prime minister since David Cameron has posed as a committed leaver, vowing to deliver the will of the people as reflected in the 52% to 48% vote to leave.

They must be wondering why they bothered. In opinion polls, Brexit does not feature in the top 10 issues of concern to voters.

Clear majorities – 75% and upwards – think Brexit has damaged the economy.

And, as COVID and the cost of living came to dominate the agenda, the Conservatives have been consistently trailing Labour by some 20 points or so for more than a year.

Given he now looks as if he is going to be the next prime minister – and given he was a Remainer who initially wanted there to be a second referendum to reverse the result – some of the Labour leader’s allies are wondering why Sir Keir Starmer is so reluctant to talk about closer relations with the European Union.

As this year draws to a close, politicians and other occupants of the Westminster bubble are drawing up their annual audits of how things stand with extra enthusiasm because a general election must take place at some point in the next 13 months.

At the Resolution Foundation conference in the QEII Centre, there were guffaws when the Labour leader was asked why he has been writing about “the possibilities of Brexit”.

There was another striking moment at another meeting just off Parliament Square: UK In A Changing Europe’s annual report on the “state of public opinion”. Participants in public meetings are usually very cautious about making firm predictions.

Yet when I asked a panel comprising the author of the 2019 Conservative manifesto, a Labour candidate at the next election and two leading political academics what they thought the outcome of the general election would be, all four of them predicted a majority Labour government – without hesitation or deviation.

They were speaking days before the latest Tory bust-up and cabinet resignation over immigration policy, which is unlikely to have give the Conservative Party a boost.

Some on the Labour frontbench are more enthusiastic about Europe than others.

David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, says that closer ties with the EU are his “number one priority” and does not wholly discard the dream of rejoining one day.

That is a long way off.

Sir Keir has muttered that he would like to “rewrite” a better trade agreement after 2025 – but he has also ruled out the UK re-entering either the customs union or the single market.

Both would be prerequisites for EU membership, as well as the principal triggers of economic benefit, according to financial experts.

Labour is well aware that the single market would mean freedom of movement of EU citizens in and out of the UK. Leave campaigners played up the immigration issue, which continues to be a major concern of the electorate, even though the record levels of migration since the referendum have been by people from outside the EU.

Those arguing for a more positive stance from Sir Keir point out that an overwhelming majority of those who intend to vote Labour are in favour of closer relations with the EU.

Indeed, it would encourage 34% to vote Labour. Another third, 38%, say it would have no impact on their voting intentions.

The catch is that most of those either pro or indifferent are going to vote Labour anyway. More detailed examination of polling carried out for UK In A Changing Europe explains why Sir Keir is unlikely to make renegotiating closer ties with the EU a major part his election campaign.

To secure a comfortable majority, Labour needs to appeal beyond its core supporters – winning over some of those who voted Tory in 2019, including those who switched to Boris Johnson in the so-called “Red Wall”: less affluent, pro-Brexit constituencies in the Midlands and North of England.

Some 39% of those who voted for Brexit in 2016 and Conservative in 2019 say they would be less likely to switch to Labour if it reopened the question of EU membership, compared to a mere 14% who would be attracted. They would be put off even though they have soured on voting Leave.

Startling new findings that a narrow majority of Leave voters, 52%, now say the economy is worse off because of Brexit and that a clear majority of them, 58%, say they would vote Remain in another referendum.

Mr Sunak and the Conservatives are trying to keep their 2019 voters by branding Sir Keir an EU lover.

Sir Keir is advocating more cooperation with the EU on illegal migration across the channel. At PMQs, Mr Sunak claimed that would mean accepting “100,000” coming in from the EU.

Unlike the stalled Rwanda scheme, the Conservative government’s own increased cooperation with, and payments to, the French authorities do seem to have reduced numbers crossing the Channel.

Mr Sunak however insists this joint working is “not for reasons of sentimentality”. He frames it instead in competitive terms repeatedly pointing out that numbers crossing into Britain are “down by a third” this year, while migration into the EU across the Mediterranean is “up by 80%”.

In a similar vein, the prime minister brandishes any economic statistics which compare the UK favourably to European performance and ignores contradictory indicators. None of this has endeared the UK to its former EU partners.

Mr Sunak has avoided or refused routine meetings with his EU counterparts. In Opposition, Labour has sought them eagerly and plans to establish routine contacts if it is in government after the general election.

Yet Sir Keir is determined that there will be no outbreak of euro-enthusiasm in his ranks.

Whatever the opinion polls say, or the experts predict, the Labour leadership really do not believe that they have the next election in the bag yet.

To stamp out complacency and to quite literally wipe smiles of faces, the shadow cabinet were treated to a compulsory gloomy PowerPoint presentation last week. It pointed out that the issues which determined the results of previous elections were often not even on the radar twelve months before the vote.

Brexit, that most polarizing of British political issues this century, has dropped out of sight. Between now and the election Sir Keir will resist Conservative goading grimly, determined to say as little as possible about Labour’s plans for Europe beyond occasionally bemoaning “the smouldering cinders of the bridges the Tories have burnt”.

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Facial recognition vans to be rolled out across police forces in England

Published

2 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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Facial recognition vans to be rolled out across police forces in England

The police’s use of facial recognition technology is to be significantly expanded in an attempt to catch more offenders, ministers have announced.

Under the plans, 10 live facial recognition (LFR) vans will be used by seven forces across England to help identify “sex offenders or people wanted for the most serious crimes”, according to Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.

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The tech, which has been trialled in London and south Wales, will be subject to strict rules, the Home Office said, but human rights groups have warned it is “dangerous and discriminatory”.

Amnesty International UK said the plans should be “immediately scrapped”, with facial recognition proven to be “discriminatory against communities of colour”.

“It has been known to lead to misidentification and the risk of wrongful arrest,” said Alba Kapoor, the charity’s racial justice lead, “and it’s also known to be less accurate in scanning the faces of people of colour.”

The Home Office said the LFR vans will only be deployed when there is “specific intelligence”, and will be operated by trained officers who will check every match made by the cameras.

The vehicles will also only be used against bespoke watch lists, compiled for each use under guidelines set by the College of Policing.

The vans will be operated by police forces in Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Bedfordshire, Surrey and Sussex (jointly), and Thames Valley and Hampshire (jointly).

‘The most serious offenders’

Ms Cooper has said ministers are focused on making sure “there are proper safeguards in place”.

As part of the plans, the home secretary has announced she will be launching a consultation on how and when the cameras should be used, and with what safeguards, which the government will use to draw up a new legal framework for the use of the cameras.

Ms Cooper said the tech had been used in London and South Wales “in a targeted way”, and helped catch “the most serious offenders, including people wanted for violent assaults or for sex offences”.

According to the Metropolitan Police, the tech has led to 580 arrests for offences such as rape, domestic crime and knife crime in the space of 12 months.

The government has pointed to independent testing by the National Physical Laboratory, which it said found the tech was “accurate” and showed “no bias for ethnicity, age, or gender”.

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Liberty has welcomed the government’s decision to create a statutory framework for using facial recognition, but said that should be in place before the tech is rolled out.

“There’s no reasonable excuse to be putting even more cameras on our streets before the public have had their say and legislation is brought in to protect all of us,” said a statement.

The civil liberties charity cited how more than 1.6 million people have had their faces scanned in South Wales, mostly on football match days in Cardiff city centre.

But Lindsey Chiswick, from the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC), has said the expansion “is an excellent opportunity for policing”, and will help officers locate suspects “quickly and accurately”.

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Police ordered to consider revealing ethnicity of suspects

Published

2 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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Police ordered to consider revealing ethnicity of suspects

Police should consider disclosing the ethnicity and nationality of suspects when they are charged in high-profile and sensitive cases, new national guidance says.

Coming into force today, it says there must be a policing reason to release the information, such as where there are high levels of disinformation, if it will improve public safety, or if it is significantly in the public interest.

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A Home Office spokesperson told Sky News they will support the new guidance by authorising the release of relevant accompanying immigration information if appropriate.

The change comes after two men charged over the alleged rape of a 12-year-old girl in Nuneaton were reported to be Afghan asylum seekers, sparking protests.

Warwickshire Police did not confirm the immigration status, leading to Reform UK accusing them of a “cover-up”, something the force strongly denied.

Responding to the row, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said last week she wanted police to be more transparent, and that new guidance was being worked up.

Speaking to Sky News after the new instructions were announced, policing minister Dame Diana Johnson said “we welcome the guidance” which the government thinks is “really helpful”.

She added: “We want to be as transparent and as open as possible with the public” – and this includes releasing ethnicity and nationality unless there is “good reason not to”.

How high-profile cases sparked debate

When considering what information to release, police must consider contempt of court laws which aim to give defendants a fair trial, as well as media guidance from the College of Policing.

Until now, the media guidance said once a suspect has been charged, police can give out information such as their name, date of birth and address. It did not mention anything about ethnicity, nationality, or immigration status.

The Southport murders committed by Axel Rudakubana last July led to speculation about his ethnicity and immigration status, fuelling riots in many parts of the country.

While the details were not initially released in that case, when a car ploughed into crowds celebrating Liverpool’s Premier League win earlier this year, Merseyside Police were quick to say the suspect was a white British man.

In the Nuneaton case, Reform leader Nigel Farage said retaining the “basic and sober facts” was “a cover-up that in many ways is reminiscent of what happened after the Southport killings”.

Warwickshire Police said officers “did not and will not cover up such criminality”, and followed national guidance.

How will new guidance work?

The new guidance says it is at the discretion of the police force to decide whether to release ethnicity and nationality details, and that they must consider the ethical and legal implications.

It says it is not the job of police to verify a suspect’s immigration status, which rests with the Home Office.

The advice has been developed by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) and the College of Policing, in consultation with the Home Office and the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS).

Deputy chief constable Sam de Reya, the NPCC lead for communications and media, said: “We saw during last summer’s disorder, as well as in several recent high-profile cases, what the major, real-world consequences can be from what information police release into the public domain.

“We have to make sure our processes are fit for purpose in an age of social media speculation and where information can travel incredibly quickly across a wide range of channels.

“Disinformation and incorrect narratives can take hold in a vacuum. It is good police work for us to fill this vacuum with the facts about issues of wider public interest.”

‘A chilling message’

The guidance is interim, and will be considered as part of a wider review of the College of Policing’s authorised professional practice for media relations later this year.

Chief constable Sir Andy Marsh, the college’s CEO, said officers will continue to police “without fear or favour”.

But the guidance is likely to provoke backlash from anti-racism campaigners. Last week, the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants warned that revealing ethnicity and migration status would “send a chilling message: that some people are inherently more ‘suspect'”.

‘Public trust requires transparency’

A Home Office spokesperson told Sky News they welcome the new guidance, adding: “Public trust requires transparency and consistency from the authorities that serve them.”

They added: “The public, and police forces themselves, want greater clarity on when, why and how information is released and the legitimate and compelling reasons it may need to be withheld.

“The Home Office will support that effort by authorising the release of relevant accompanying immigration information in future cases, where it is appropriate to do so, and where the police have requested it. All cases will of course take account of consultation with the police and CPS.

“The government also asked the Law Commission at the end of February to speed up the elements of its review around the law of contempt in relation to what can be said publicly ahead of a trial.”

Politics

Wisconsin senators file companion bill aiming to curb crypto ATM scams

Published

5 hours ago

August 13, 2025

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Wisconsin senators file companion bill aiming to curb crypto ATM scams

Senators in the state of Wisconsin have filed an identical bill to accompany earlier legislation filed in the state’s lower house that aims to closely regulate crypto ATMs.