Mosquitoes carrying dengue fever could be common in England by the 2040s, govt experts warn
Asian tiger mosquitoes carrying dengue fever could be common in England by the middle of this century, according to government health experts.
The insects have spread across large parts of Europe in recent years because of warmer conditions – and tend to live in urban areas and feed during the day, putting people at greater risk.
They are known for their striped body and its potential to spread dengue fever, zika virus and chikungunya – diseases normally associated with tropical regions.
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The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) fears dengue fever could be transmitted in London by 2060, and the mosquito itself could become widespread across England in the 2040s.
Jolyon Medlock, an entomologist at UKHSA, said monitoring at borders can help slow the spread of mosquitoes – and people can keep them away by covering any standing water or empty containers, as the insects lay eggs in them.
UKHSA chief executive Professor Dame Jenny Harries said: “Things that when I trained many years ago were called tropical diseases will actually become national domestic diseases.”
Officials also said other food or water-based infectious diseases could become more common, with an increased risk of more pandemics.
Danger from extreme heat will worsen and so will flooding, which can also damage people’s mental health.
Food prices are also likely to become more volatile as much of what the UK imports is from regions sensitive to climate impacts such as drought.
Wildfires that produce toxic smoke are also expected more frequently during hotter, drier summers.
Young children, the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions are most vulnerable to these threats.
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“In the summer of 2022, UK temperatures reached above 40C for the first time on record,” Dame Jenny said.
“We had nearly 3,000 excess deaths recorded across that extended heat period while many other countries have experienced bouts of intense and prolonged heat in recent months.
“Using a high emission scenario, UK health-related deaths are estimated to increase by over 100% in the 2030s, over 500% in the 2050s, and over 1,000% by 2070.”
Read more:
What is dengue fever and how does it spread?
Doctors fear UK could see outbreaks – and this is why
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The Earth has already warmed by 1.2C above pre-industrial levels and the amount of carbon in the atmosphere means further warming is already locked in even if emissions start declining overnight.
This means some adaption is necessary, the UKHSA said, alongside the reduction in emissions and making improvements to housing, flood defences and extreme temperature warnings.
Dame Jenny added: “Climate change is an important threat which undermines public health right across the globe, not only by increasing the mortality burden of extreme temperatures and weather effects, but through enhancing the spread of infectious disease and exacerbating the fragility of the global systems that our health depends upon, increasing the vulnerability of populations to existing geopolitical, energy and cost-of-living crises.”
The crash involving a cargo ship and oil tanker off the East Yorkshire coast is bad news for the sea, fish and air in the area. What we don’t know yet is quite how bad it will be.
That depends on a few things – but the speed of the collision, clouds of filthy black smoke from the fires and the leaked fuel are certainly worrying.
Firstly, it matters what was on board those two massive vessels.
Follow live: Jet fuel spilling into sea after tanker collision
Analytics firm Vortexa estimates the 183m-long tanker was carrying about 130,000 barrels of jet fuel (kerosene), which is now leaking into the sea.
Jet fuel is not as sticky or viscous as heavier types of oil, thankfully, so it’s less likely to clog the feathers and fur of birds and seals. It can also be broken down by natural bacteria.
But it can still poison fish and kill animals and plants on the shoreline if it makes its way into the soil there.
The Marine Conservation Society has pointed out the site in the Humber estuary is close to some protected areas and is important for seabirds and harbour porpoises.
And both ships will have been powered by a dirtier, heavier kind of oil – likely marine gas oil or heavy fuel oil, though we don’t know the details yet.
Heavy fuel oil is nasty stuff.
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Cheap, thick and tar-like, it can smother animals and is very dangerous if they consume it, and is extremely difficult to clean up. Let’s hope this isn’t creeping around the North Sea already.
We don’t know how much of either the jet fuel or the oil powering the ships has leaked, or how much will be burned off in the violent fires – which themselves are ploughing black smoke and filthy air pollution into the surrounding atmosphere.
And we don’t know for sure what was on the Solong cargo ship and if, or what, will go into the sea.
Cargo ship ‘had sodium cyanide on board’
It was carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide among other cargo, according to a report from maritime data provider Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
The container vessel was also transporting an unknown quantity of alcohol, said the casualty report – an assessment of incidents at sea – citing a message from the local coastguard.
Plastic takes hundreds of years to break down, and potentially can choke or trap animals.
Many of us have seen that uncomfortable viral video of a turtle having a straw yanked out of its nose. Previous accidents on cargo ships have seen plastic Lego pieces wash up in Cornwall 25 years later.
Read more:
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Secondly, the impact depends on the sea and weather conditions around it.
Things like the wind and currents affect how an oil spill spreads in the sea. Scientists can draw up computer models to simulate how the oil could behave.
Thirdly, it matters how quickly this is all tackled and then cleaned up, if necessary, and if it can be.
Usually the slower the response, the worse the impact.
The coastguard has said the incident “remains ongoing” and it has started assessing the “likely counter pollution response” that will be required.
Such a response might need the help of numerous public bodies: the government environment department, the transport department, the Environment Agency and the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
So for now the best we can hope for – aside from the welfare of the people involved – is that not all the oil is spilled or burnt, that conditions are calm and that rescuers and those cleaning up can work swiftly.
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