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Rishi Sunak is braced for a showdown on his Rwanda bill that could fatally undermine his authority as rival Tory factions make conflicting demands of the prime minister.

In a day of high drama in Westminster, moderates from the One Nation caucus said they would back the legislation aimed at reviving the stalled deportation scheme – but will drop support if there are any amendments that risk the UK breaching the rule of law and its international obligations.

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This is something groups on the right of the party have called for, with the New Conservatives saying the bill needs “major surgery or replacement” to ensure their backing.

The right-wing MPs are continuing discussions tonight before deciding how to vote at the second reading tomorrow – with Mr Sunak set to host a breakfast meeting in the morning to lobby for their support.

The vote tomorrow is a huge test of the prime minister’s authority – no government has suffered a defeat at this stage of a proposed law’s progress since 1986.

Explaining the position of moderates, Damian Green MP, chair of the One Nation group, said: “We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.

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“We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.”

It takes 29 MPs to vote against, or 57 MPs to abstain, for Mr Sunak’s flagship legislation to be rejected – with no clarity on whether he could survive such a defeat in practice.

While the statement from the One Nation group will be a relief – it does not mean the fight to get the bill passed is over.

Earlier today, the Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from this wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.

Meanwhile the New Conservatives said that the Rwanda Bill needs “major surgery or replacement”.

A spokesman for the group said: “More than 40 colleagues met tonight to discuss the bill.

“Every member of that discussion said the bill needs major surgery or replacement and they will be making that plain in the morning to the PM at breakfast and over the next 24 hours.”

The groups have yet to say how they will vote on the legislation and it may be that they back it tomorrow with a plan to change it through amendments further down the line.

Are there enough rebel MPs to bring down the Rwanda bill?

Jennifer Scott

Politics Reporter

@NifS

Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.

We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.

Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.

But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.

At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.

Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.

But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenchers, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.

They also represent around 100 MPs. Tonight they have recommended members back the bill – though of course some may choose not to.

And even if they do, it does not mean the fight is over – as they have said they won’t support any changes to toughen up the bill – something those on the right are calling for.

With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, its understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.

But Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby said even if the bill is passed tomorrow, it only “kicks the blow up further down the road” – given the conflicting position of the One Nation group.

She told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge: “The prime minister has chosen an issue where his party is irreconcilably divided between the left and the right on whether to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and break international law to get these flights off the ground.

“He is trying to chart a narrow path in the middle and while MPs are saying they might back it on second reading, you have one side saying amend it and we might not back it again, and another side saying if you don’t amend it we can’t support this legislation.”

The prime minister revealed the new law last week in an attempt to revive the scheme that would see asylum seekers arriving by small boat crossings deported to the African nation, after the Supreme Court ruled in November that it was unlawful.

The bill declares the African nation as safe and allows ministers to disapply the Human Rights Act to limit appeals against people being removed from the UK.

It does not go as far as overriding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which those on the right of the party had called for.

In a rare move intended to win over critics, the government produced a summary of its own legal position in support of the scheme on Monday.

The document concludes that there is a “clear lawful basis on which a responsible government may proceed” with a “novel and contentious” policy.

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Eight arrests in connection with two separate terrorism investigations

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Eight arrests in connection with two separate terrorism investigations

Eight men have been arrested by the Metropolitan Police in two unconnected but “significant” terrorism investigations.

In one operation on Saturday, counter-terror officers arrested five men – four of whom are Iranian nationals – as they swooped in on various locations around the country. All are in police custody.

The Met said the arrests related to a “suspected plot to target a specific premises”.

In an update shortly after midnight, the force said: “Officers have been in contact with the affected site to make them aware and provide relevant advice and support, but for operational reasons, we are not able to provide further information at this time.”

Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said: “Counter-terrorism policing, supported by police and colleagues from across the country, have conducted arrests in two really significant operations, both of which have been designed to keep the public safe from threats.

“There are several hundred officers and staff working on this investigation, and we will work very hard to ensure we understand the threats to the wider public.”

He refused to say if the plot was related to Israel, but described it as “certainly significant” and said “it is unusual for us to conduct this scale of activity”.

He also asked the public to “avoid speculation and some of the things that are being posted online”.

MI5 director general Ken McCallum said in October that the intelligence agency had responded to 20 “potentially lethal” Iran-backed plots since 2022. He warned of the risk of an “increase or broadening of Iranian state aggression in the UK”.

Read more: Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran

Children ‘petrified’ by armed police

Rochdale resident Kyle Warren, who witnessed one of the arrests at a neighbouring house, said his children had been playing in the garden when they came running into the house, saying a man in a mask had told them to go inside.

“Obviously, I was a bit worried,” Mr Warren told Sky News’ Lisa Dowd, and so he went into the garden to investigate.

“As we’ve come out, we just heard a massive bang, seen loads of police everywhere with guns, shouting at us to get inside the house.”

Kyle Warren said his children were 'petrified'
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Kyle Warren said his children were ‘petrified’

From upstairs in his house, he then heard “loads of shouting in the house” and saw a man being pulled out of the back of the house, “dragged down the side entry and thrown into all the bushes and then handcuffed”.

There were about 20 to 30 officers with guns, he believes.

“It’s just shocking, really. You don’t expect it on your doorstep.”

His daughters were “petrified… I don’t think they’ve ever seen a gun, so to see 20 masked men with guns running round was quite scary for them”.

Mr Warren, who only moved into his house a year ago, said he had “never really seen anyone going in or out” of the house and actually thought it was empty.

One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash
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One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash

One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash
Image:
One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash

Arrests and searches around the country

The Met added officers were carrying out searches at a number of addresses in the Greater Manchester, London and Swindon areas in connection with the investigation.

It said those detained were:

• A 29-year-old man arrested in the Swindon area
• A 46-year-old man arrested in west London
• A 29-year-old man arrested in the Stockport area
• A 40-year-old man arrested in the Rochdale area
• A man whose age was not confirmed arrested in the Manchester area.

Passenger footage of a police van in Stockport over the terrorism arrest SQUARE OR PORTRAIT
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A 29-year-old man was arrested in the Stockport area

Terror arrests in separate investigation

Police also arrested three further Iranian nationals in London on Saturday as part of another, unrelated counter-terror investigation.

The suspects were detained under section 27 of the National Security Act 2023, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.

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Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “These were two major operations that reflect some of the biggest counter state threat and counter terrorism operations that we have seen in recent years.

“This reflects the complexity of the kinds of challenges to our national security that we continue to face.”

Earlier, she thanked police and security services in a statement, and called the incidents “serious events that demonstrate the ongoing requirement to adapt our response to national security threats”.

Last year, the government placed the whole of the Iranian state – including its intelligence services – on the enhanced tier of the new foreign influence registration scheme.

It means anyone asked by Iran to carry out actions for the state must declare it, or face prison time.

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Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

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Terror arrests came in context of raised warnings about Iran, with ongoing chaos in its own backyard

These are two separate and unrelated investigations by counter-terror officers.

But the common thread is nationality – seven out of the eight people arrested are Iranian.

And that comes in the context of increased warnings from government and the security services about Iranian activity on British soil.

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Counter terror officers raid property

Last year, the director general of MI5, Ken McCallum, said his organisation and police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since January 2022.

He linked that increase to the ongoing situation in Iran’s own backyard.

“As events unfold in the Middle East, we will give our fullest attention to the risk of an increase in – or a broadening of – Iranian state aggression in the UK,” he said.

The implication is that even as Iran grapples with a rapidly changing situation in its own region, having seen its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, decimated and itself coming under Israeli attack, it may seek avenues further abroad.

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The government reiterated this warning only a few weeks ago, with security minister Dan Jarvis addressing parliament.

“The threat from Iran sits in a wider context of the growing, diversifying and evolving threat that the UK faces from malign activity by a number of states,” Jarvis said.

“The threat from states has become increasingly interconnected in nature, blurring the lines between: domestic and international; online and offline; and states and their proxies.

“Turning specifically to Iran, the regime has become increasingly emboldened, asserting itself more aggressively to advance their objectives and undermine ours.”

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As part of that address, Jarvis highlighted the National Security Act 2023, which “criminalises assisting a foreign intelligence service”, among other things.

So it was notable that this was the act used in one of this weekend’s investigations.

The suspects were detained under section 27 of the same act, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.

Those powers are apparently being put to use.

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Pictured: Boy killed in Gateshead industrial estate fire – 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter

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Pictured: Boy killed in Gateshead industrial estate fire - 14 children arrested on suspicion of manslaughter

Tributes have been paid to 14-year-old Layton Carr who died in a fire at an industrial estate.

Eleven boys and three girls, aged between 11 and 14 years, have been arrested on suspicion of manslaughter after the incident in Gateshead on Friday. They remain in police custody.

Drone view showing the aftermath of a fire at Fairfield industrial park at Bill Quay, Gateshead
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Police were alerted to a fire at Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area

Firefighters raced to Fairfield industrial park in the Bill Quay area shortly after 8pm, putting out the blaze a short time later.

Police then issued an appeal for a missing boy, Layton Carr, who was believed to be in the area at the time.

In a statement, the force said that “sadly, following searches, a body believed to be that of 14-year-old Layton Carr was located deceased inside the building”.

Layton’s next of kin have been informed and are being supported by specialist officers, police added.

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Teenager dies in industrial estate fire

A fundraising page on GoFundMe has been set up to help Layton’s mother pay for funeral costs.

Organiser Stephanie Simpson said: “The last thing Georgia needs to stress trying to pay for a funeral for her Boy Any donations will help thank you.”

One tribute in a Facebook post read: “Can’t believe I’m writing this my nephew RIP Layton 💔 forever 14 you’ll be a massive miss, thinking of my sister and 2 beautiful nieces right now.”

Another added: “My boy ❤️ my baby cousin, my Layton. Nothing will ever come close to the pain I feel right now. Forever 14. I’ll miss you sausage.”

A third said: “Rest in peace big lad such a beautiful soul taken far to soon my thoughts are with you Gee stay strong girl hear for u always.”

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Detective Chief Inspector Louise Jenkins, of Northumbria Police, also said: “This is an extremely tragic incident where a boy has sadly lost his life.”

She added that the force’s “thoughts are with Layton’s family as they begin to attempt to process the loss of their loved one”.

They are working to establish “the full circumstances surrounding the incident” and officers will be in the area to “offer reassurance to the public”, she added.

A cordon remains in place at the site while police carry out enquiries.

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