Rishi Sunak is braced for a showdown on his Rwanda bill that could fatally undermine his authority as rival Tory factions make conflicting demands of the prime minister.
In a day of high drama in Westminster, moderates from the One Nation caucus said they would back the legislation aimed at reviving the stalled deportation scheme – but will drop support if there are any amendments that risk the UK breaching the rule of law and its international obligations.
This is something groups on the right of the party have called for, with the New Conservatives saying the bill needs “major surgery or replacement” to ensure their backing.
The right-wing MPs are continuing discussions tonight before deciding how to vote at the second reading tomorrow – with Mr Sunak set to host a breakfast meeting in the morning to lobby for their support.
The vote tomorrow is a huge test of the prime minister’s authority – no government has suffered a defeat at this stage of a proposed law’s progress since 1986.
Explaining the position of moderates, Damian Green MP, chair of the One Nation group, said: “We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
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“We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.”
It takes 29 MPs to vote against, or 57 MPs to abstain, for Mr Sunak’s flagship legislation to be rejected – with no clarity on whether he could survive such a defeat in practice.
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While the statement from the One Nation group will be a relief – it does not mean the fight to get the bill passed is over.
Earlier today, the Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from this wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.
Meanwhile the New Conservatives said that the Rwanda Bill needs “major surgery or replacement”.
A spokesman for the group said: “More than 40 colleagues met tonight to discuss the bill.
“Every member of that discussion said the bill needs major surgery or replacement and they will be making that plain in the morning to the PM at breakfast and over the next 24 hours.”
The groups have yet to say how they will vote on the legislation and it may be that they back it tomorrow with a plan to change it through amendments further down the line.
Are there enough rebel MPs to bring down the Rwanda bill?
Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.
We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.
Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.
But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.
At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.
Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.
But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenchers, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.
They also represent around 100 MPs. Tonight they have recommended members back the bill – though of course some may choose not to.
And even if they do, it does not mean the fight is over – as they have said they won’t support any changes to toughen up the bill – something those on the right are calling for.
With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, its understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.
But Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby said even if the bill is passed tomorrow, it only “kicks the blow up further down the road” – given the conflicting position of the One Nation group.
She told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge: “The prime minister has chosen an issue where his party is irreconcilably divided between the left and the right on whether to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and break international law to get these flights off the ground.
“He is trying to chart a narrow path in the middle and while MPs are saying they might back it on second reading, you have one side saying amend it and we might not back it again, and another side saying if you don’t amend it we can’t support this legislation.”
The bill declares the African nation as safe and allows ministers to disapply the Human Rights Act to limit appeals against people being removed from the UK.
It does not go as far as overriding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which those on the right of the party had called for.
In a rare move intended to win over critics, the government produced a summary of its own legal position in support of the scheme on Monday.
The document concludes that there is a “clear lawful basis on which a responsible government may proceed” with a “novel and contentious” policy.
Specialist investigation teams for rape and sexual offences are to be created across England and Wales as the Home Secretary declares violence against women and girls a “national emergency”.
Shabana Mahmood said the dedicated units will be in place across every force by 2029 as part of Labour’s violence against women and girls (VAWG) strategy due to be launched later this week.
The use of Domestic Abuse Protection Orders (DAPOs), which had been trialled in several areas, will also be rolled out across England and Wales. They are designed to target abusers by imposing curfews, electronic tags and exclusion zones.
The orders cover all forms of domestic abuse, including economic abuse, coercive and controlling behaviour, stalking and ‘honour’-based abuse. Breaching the terms can carry a prison term of up to 5 years.
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Govt ‘thinking again’ on abuse strategy
Nearly £2m will also be spent funding a network of officers to target offenders operating within the online space.
Teams will use covert and intelligence techniques to tackle violence against women and girls via apps and websites.
A similar undercover network funded by the Home Office to examine child sexual abuse has arrested over 1,700 perpetrators.
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Abuse is ‘national emergency’
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said in a statement: “This government has declared violence against women and girls a national emergency.
“For too long, these crimes have been considered a fact of life. That’s not good enough. We will halve it in a decade.
“Today we announce a range of measures to bear down on abusers, stopping them in their tracks. Rapists, sex offenders and abusers will have nowhere to hide.”
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Angiolini Inquiry: Recommendations are ‘not difficult’
The government said the measures build on existing policy, including facial recognition technology to identify offenders, improving protections for stalking victims, making strangulation a criminal offence and establishing domestic abuse specialists in 999 control rooms.
But the Conservatives said Labour had “failed women” and “broken its promises” by delaying the publication of the violence against women and girls strategy.
Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Philp, said that Labour “shrinks from uncomfortable truths, voting against tougher sentences and presiding over falling sex-offender convictions. At every turn, Labour has failed women.”
There have been no migrant arrivals in small boats crossing the Channel for 28 days, according to Home Office figures.
The last recorded arrivals were on 14 November, making it the longest uninterrupted run since autumn 2018 after no reported arrivals on Friday.
However, a number of Border Force vessels were active in the English Channel on Saturday morning, indicating that there may be arrivals today.
So far, 39,292 people have crossed to the UK aboard small boats this year – already more than any other year except 2022.
The record that year was set at 45,774 arrivals.
It comes as the government has stepped up efforts in recent months to deter people from risking their lives crossing the Channel – but measures are not expected to have an impact until next year.
Image: Debris of a small boat used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel lays amongst the sand dunes in Gravelines, France. Pic: PA
December is normally one of the quietest for Channel crossings, with a combination of poor visibility, low temperatures, less daylight and stormy weather making the perilous journey more difficult.
The most arrivals recorded in the month of December is 3,254, in 2024.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy met with ministers from other European countries this week as discussions over possible reform to the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) continue.
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France agrees to start intercepting small boats
The issue of small boat arrivals – a very small percentage of overall UK immigration – has become a salient issue in British politics in recent years.
The King has shared in a television address that, thanks to early diagnosis, his cancer treatment can be reduced in the new year.
In a televised address, Charles said his “good news” was “thanks to early diagnosis, effective intervention and adherence to doctors’ orders”.
“This milestone is both a personal blessing and a testimony to the remarkable advances that have been made in cancer care in recent years,” he added.
“Testimony that I hope may give encouragement to the 50% of us who will be diagnosed with the illness at some point in our lives.”
The King announced in February 2024 that he had been diagnosed with cancer and was beginning treatment.
The monarch postponed all public-facing engagements, but continued with his duties as head of state behind palace walls, conducting audiences and Privy Council meetings.
He returned to public duties in April last year and visited University College Hospital Macmillan Cancer Centre in central London with the Queen and discussed his “shock” at being diagnosed when he spoke to a fellow cancer patient.
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Sources suggested last December his treatment would continue in 2025 and was “moving in a positive direction”.
Image: The King began returning to public duties in April last year. File pic: PA
The King has chosen not to reveal what kind of cancer he has been treated for. Palace sources have partly put that down to the fact that he doesn’t want one type of cancer to appear more significant or attract more attention than others.
In a statement after the speech aired, a Buckingham Palace spokesperson said: “His Majesty has responded exceptionally well to treatment and his doctors advise that ongoing measures will now move into a precautionary phase.”
Sir Keir Starmer praised the video message as “a powerful message,” and said: “I know I speak for the entire country when I say how glad I am that his cancer treatment will be reduced in the new year.
“Early cancer screening saves lives.”
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Watch: King Charles gives update on treatment
Early detection can give ‘the precious gift of hope’
His message on Friday was broadcast at 8pm in support of Stand Up To Cancer, a joint campaign by Cancer Research UK and Channel 4.
In an appeal to people to get screened for the disease early, the King said: “I know from my own experience that a cancer diagnosis can feel overwhelming.
“Yet I also know that early detection is the key that can transform treatment journeys, giving invaluable time to medical teams – and, to their patients, the precious gift of hope. These are gifts we can all help deliver.”
Charles noted that “at least nine million people in our country are not up to date with the cancer screenings available to them,” adding: “That is at least nine million opportunities for early diagnosis being missed.
“The statistics speak with stark clarity. To take just one example: When bowel cancer is caught at the earliest stage, around nine in ten people survive for at least five years.
“When diagnosed late, that falls to just one in ten. Early diagnosis quite simply saves lives.”
after months of uncertainty, some relief and reassurance for the King
This is a rare but positive update. The King in his own words speaking about his cancer.
And it’s good news.
Since his diagnosis, he’s received weekly treatment. His work schedule has had to fit around the appointments. And while it’s not stopping, it is being significantly reduced.
He’s responded well, and his recovery has reached, we understand, a very positive stage.
The King’s decision to speak publicly and so personally is unusual.
He has deliberately chosen the moment, supporting the high-profile Stand Up To Cancer campaign, and the launch of a national online screening checker.
It still hasn’t been revealed what kind of cancer he has. And there’s a reason – firstly, it’s private information.
But more importantly, the King knows the power of sharing his story. And with it, the potential to support the wider cancer community.
We are once again seeing a candid openness from the Royal Family. Earlier this year, the Princess of Wales discussed the ups and downs of her cancer journey.
These moments signal a shift towards greater transparency on matters the Royal Family once kept entirely private.
For millions facing cancer, the King’s update is empathy and encouragement from someone who understands.
And after months of uncertainty, for the King himself, some relief and reassurance.
Minor inconvenience of screening ‘a small price to pay’
The King acknowledged that people often avoid screening “because they imagine it may be frightening, embarrassing or uncomfortable”. But, he added: “If and when they do finally take up their invitation, they are glad they took part.
“A few moments of minor inconvenience are a small price to pay for the reassurance that comes for most people when they are either told either they don’t need further tests, or, for some, are given the chance to enable early detection, with the life-saving intervention that can follow.”
Giving his “most heartfelt thanks” to doctors, nurses, researchers and charity workers, the King added: “As I have observed before, the darkest moments of illness can be illuminated by the greatest compassion. But compassion must be paired with action.
“This December, as we gather to reflect on the year past, I pray that we can each pledge, as part of our resolutions for the year ahead, to play our part in helping to catch cancer early.
“Your life – or the life of someone you love – may depend upon it.”