Rishi Sunak is braced for a showdown on his Rwanda bill that could fatally undermine his authority as rival Tory factions make conflicting demands of the prime minister.
In a day of high drama in Westminster, moderates from the One Nation caucus said they would back the legislation aimed at reviving the stalled deportation scheme – but will drop support if there are any amendments that risk the UK breaching the rule of law and its international obligations.
This is something groups on the right of the party have called for, with the New Conservatives saying the bill needs “major surgery or replacement” to ensure their backing.
The right-wing MPs are continuing discussions tonight before deciding how to vote at the second reading tomorrow – with Mr Sunak set to host a breakfast meeting in the morning to lobby for their support.
The vote tomorrow is a huge test of the prime minister’s authority – no government has suffered a defeat at this stage of a proposed law’s progress since 1986.
Explaining the position of moderates, Damian Green MP, chair of the One Nation group, said: “We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
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“We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.”
It takes 29 MPs to vote against, or 57 MPs to abstain, for Mr Sunak’s flagship legislation to be rejected – with no clarity on whether he could survive such a defeat in practice.
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While the statement from the One Nation group will be a relief – it does not mean the fight to get the bill passed is over.
Earlier today, the Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from this wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.
Meanwhile the New Conservatives said that the Rwanda Bill needs “major surgery or replacement”.
A spokesman for the group said: “More than 40 colleagues met tonight to discuss the bill.
“Every member of that discussion said the bill needs major surgery or replacement and they will be making that plain in the morning to the PM at breakfast and over the next 24 hours.”
The groups have yet to say how they will vote on the legislation and it may be that they back it tomorrow with a plan to change it through amendments further down the line.
Are there enough rebel MPs to bring down the Rwanda bill?
Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.
We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.
Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.
But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.
At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.
Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.
But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenchers, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.
They also represent around 100 MPs. Tonight they have recommended members back the bill – though of course some may choose not to.
And even if they do, it does not mean the fight is over – as they have said they won’t support any changes to toughen up the bill – something those on the right are calling for.
With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, its understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.
But Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby said even if the bill is passed tomorrow, it only “kicks the blow up further down the road” – given the conflicting position of the One Nation group.
She told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge: “The prime minister has chosen an issue where his party is irreconcilably divided between the left and the right on whether to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and break international law to get these flights off the ground.
“He is trying to chart a narrow path in the middle and while MPs are saying they might back it on second reading, you have one side saying amend it and we might not back it again, and another side saying if you don’t amend it we can’t support this legislation.”
The bill declares the African nation as safe and allows ministers to disapply the Human Rights Act to limit appeals against people being removed from the UK.
It does not go as far as overriding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which those on the right of the party had called for.
In a rare move intended to win over critics, the government produced a summary of its own legal position in support of the scheme on Monday.
The document concludes that there is a “clear lawful basis on which a responsible government may proceed” with a “novel and contentious” policy.
A sonic boom has been reported across parts of east and southeast England after the RAF deployed aircraft to intercept a passenger plane.
Three Typhoon jets were launched from RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire on Friday morning to investigate the aircraft, which was not in contact with air traffic control.
Data from flightradar24.com shows one Eurofighter Typhoon FGR4 hitting speeds of just under 700 knots (805mph) at 11.40am.
When it went supersonic, the flight tracking website recorded it travelling at an altitude of around 40,000ft.
Image: Path of an RAF jet flying faster than the speed of sound. Pic: flightradar24.com
People across parts of Kent and Essex reported hearing a loud bang as the fighter jet travelled at supersonic speed.
A Royal Air Force spokesperson said: “We can confirm that RAF Quick Reaction Alert Typhoon fighter aircraft from RAF Coningsby were launched today to investigate a civilian aircraft which was not in contact with air traffic control (ATC), communications were re-established and the aircraft was safely escorted to Stansted.”
Essex Police said: “A flight has been escorted into Stansted Airport after it lost contact with the ground. Our officers determined there was nothing of concern.”
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It is not known what caused the passenger plane, which had been travelling from Nice in the south of France, to stop communicating with ATC.
A sonic boom is caused when planes fly faster than the speed of sound, which at ground level is about 761mph.
The aircraft displaces the air and creates pressure waves that become compressed and are then released in a shockwave.
The RAF describes the Typhoon FGR4 as a “highly capable and agile combat aircraft” which can be “deployed in a wide range of air operations, including air policing, peacekeeping, and high-intensity conflict”.
Thousands more Afghan nationals may have been affected by another data breach, the government has said.
Up to 3,700 Afghans brought to the UK between January and March 2024 have potentially been impacted as names, passport details and information from the Afghan Relocations and Assistance Policy has been compromised again, this time by a breach on a third party supplier used by the Ministry of Defence (MoD).
This was not an attack directly on the government but a cyber security incident on a sub-contractor named Inflite – The Jet Centre – an MoD supplier that provides ground handling services for flights at London Stansted Airport.
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July: UK spies exposed in Afghan data breach
The flights were used to bring Afghans to the UK, travel to routine military exercises, and official engagements. It was also used to fly British troops and government officials.
Those involved were informed of it on Friday afternoon by the MoD, marking the second time information about Afghan nationals relocated to the UK has been compromised.
It is understood former Tory ministers are also affected by the hack.
Earlier this year, it emerged that almost 7,000 Afghan nationals would have to be relocated to the UK following a massive data breach by the British military that successive governments tried to keep secret with a super-injunction.
Defence Secretary John Healey offered a “sincere apology” for the first data breach in a statement to the House of Commons, saying he was “deeply concerned about the lack of transparency” around the data breach, adding: “No government wishes to withhold information from the British public, from parliamentarians or the press in this manner.”
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July: Afghan interpreter ‘betrayed’ by UK govt
The previous Conservative government set up a secret scheme in 2023 to relocate Afghan nationals impacted by the data breach, but who were not eligible for an existing programme to relocate and help people who had worked for the British government in Afghanistan.
The mistake exposed personal details of close to 20,000 individuals, endangering them and their families, with as many as 100,000 people impacted in total.
A government spokesperson said of Friday’s latest breach: “We were recently notified that a third party sub-contractor to a supplier experienced a cyber security incident involving unauthorised access to a small number of its emails that contained basic personal information.
“We take data security extremely seriously and are going above and beyond our legal duties in informing all potentially affected individuals. The incident has not posed any threat to individuals’ safety, nor compromised any government systems.”
In a statement, Inflite – The Jet Centre confirmed the “data security incident” involving “unauthorised access to a limited number of company emails”.
“We have reported the incident to the Information Commissioner’s Office and have been actively working with the relevant UK cyber authorities, including the National Crime Agency and the National Cyber Security Centre, to support our investigation and response,” it said.
“We believe the scope of the incident was limited to email accounts only, however, as a precautionary measure, we have contacted our key stakeholders whose data may have been affected during the period of January to March 2024.”
A driver who knocked down a pregnant student, killing her baby boy, has been jailed for 13 years.
Renju Joseph, 31, was struck by a speeding car driven by 20-year-old Ashir Shahid at a zebra crossing in the village of Bamber Bridge, near Preston, Lancashire.
The Toyota Prius driven by Shahid was thought to be going at speeds between 58mph and 71mph in a 30mph zone, in dark and wet conditions, Preston Crown Court heard.
Mrs Joseph, who was five months pregnant at the time, was taken to hospital from the scene in Station Road in the early evening of 29 September 2024. Doctors carried out an emergency C-section to try to save the life of her son, Olive.
The woman was walking slightly behind two female colleagues on the crossing around 7.50pm as they made their way to a night shift at a nearby care home.
A motorist driving in the opposite direction reported that the Prius appeared to accelerate about 15 metres before reaching the crossing, then swerved to avoid the two pedestrians ahead.
The pregnant woman was hit and “thrown into the air for quite some distance” before she tumbled and rolled into his car, according to the witness.
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Prosecutors said Shahid’s driving before the collision also “left a lot to be desired”.
Footage recovered from the mobile phones of Shahid and his 17-year-old younger brother, Sam Shahid, who was in the front passenger seat, showed the pair laughing and singing along to music while the car was being driven recklessly and at high speed.
Image: Sam Shahid. Pic: PA
Sam Shahid was also seen sticking his feet and upper body out of the window while the driver occasionally took both hands off the wheel and made gun gestures.
Minutes after the collision, the Toyota was abandoned in a side street and covered with a sheet by the defendants. Others then moved the vehicle onto the back of a flatbed truck and dumped it in Farnworth, Greater Manchester.
Ashir Shahid was arrested days later and made no comment when interviewed, but when his phone was examined, it revealed that on the night of the collision, he made an online search for “charge for hit and run human”.
Ashir Shahid, of Walton le Dale, Preston, pleaded guilty in June to causing death and serious injury by dangerous driving.
On Friday, he was also banned from driving for 15 years and one month, and must pass an extended retest.
Sam Shahid, also of Walton le Dale, Preston, was detained for three years after he pleaded guilty to assisting an offender.
During sentencing, Judge Ian Unsworth KC remarked that Ashir Shahid’s acceleration just before the crash was “similar to what you might witness on a Formula 1 racetrack”.
He said: “Your driving was nothing less than appalling. You engaged in a prolonged and persistent course of dangerous driving.
“Your speed was significantly in excess of the speed limit and was highly inappropriate for the prevailing road conditions.
“Olive’s life lasted five hours and 38 minutes. He did not live to see dawn. His mother never saw him alive. His life was snubbed out before it really began.”
Mrs Joseph spent a fortnight in a coma before she learned of the death of her son, the court heard.
She and her nurse husband, Nyjil Jonn, both originally from India, had planned a gender reveal party at a baby shower for family and friends on 2 October.
One of her last memories before the collision was buying a dress to wear for the occasion, she said in a victim personal statement read out to the court.
Mrs Joseph said: “Everything has been ruined by that one night and the callous and reckless actions of those two people in that car. My life will never by the same again.”