Rishi Sunak is braced for a showdown on his Rwanda bill that could fatally undermine his authority as rival Tory factions make conflicting demands of the prime minister.
In a day of high drama in Westminster, moderates from the One Nation caucus said they would back the legislation aimed at reviving the stalled deportation scheme – but will drop support if there are any amendments that risk the UK breaching the rule of law and its international obligations.
This is something groups on the right of the party have called for, with the New Conservatives saying the bill needs “major surgery or replacement” to ensure their backing.
The right-wing MPs are continuing discussions tonight before deciding how to vote at the second reading tomorrow – with Mr Sunak set to host a breakfast meeting in the morning to lobby for their support.
The vote tomorrow is a huge test of the prime minister’s authority – no government has suffered a defeat at this stage of a proposed law’s progress since 1986.
Explaining the position of moderates, Damian Green MP, chair of the One Nation group, said: “We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
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“We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.”
It takes 29 MPs to vote against, or 57 MPs to abstain, for Mr Sunak’s flagship legislation to be rejected – with no clarity on whether he could survive such a defeat in practice.
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While the statement from the One Nation group will be a relief – it does not mean the fight to get the bill passed is over.
Earlier today, the Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from this wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.
Meanwhile the New Conservatives said that the Rwanda Bill needs “major surgery or replacement”.
A spokesman for the group said: “More than 40 colleagues met tonight to discuss the bill.
“Every member of that discussion said the bill needs major surgery or replacement and they will be making that plain in the morning to the PM at breakfast and over the next 24 hours.”
The groups have yet to say how they will vote on the legislation and it may be that they back it tomorrow with a plan to change it through amendments further down the line.
Are there enough rebel MPs to bring down the Rwanda bill?
Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.
We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.
Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.
But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.
At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.
Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.
But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenchers, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.
They also represent around 100 MPs. Tonight they have recommended members back the bill – though of course some may choose not to.
And even if they do, it does not mean the fight is over – as they have said they won’t support any changes to toughen up the bill – something those on the right are calling for.
With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, its understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.
But Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby said even if the bill is passed tomorrow, it only “kicks the blow up further down the road” – given the conflicting position of the One Nation group.
She told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge: “The prime minister has chosen an issue where his party is irreconcilably divided between the left and the right on whether to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and break international law to get these flights off the ground.
“He is trying to chart a narrow path in the middle and while MPs are saying they might back it on second reading, you have one side saying amend it and we might not back it again, and another side saying if you don’t amend it we can’t support this legislation.”
The bill declares the African nation as safe and allows ministers to disapply the Human Rights Act to limit appeals against people being removed from the UK.
It does not go as far as overriding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which those on the right of the party had called for.
In a rare move intended to win over critics, the government produced a summary of its own legal position in support of the scheme on Monday.
The document concludes that there is a “clear lawful basis on which a responsible government may proceed” with a “novel and contentious” policy.
Veterans are set to join the King for a VE Day tea party today as the prime minister has paid tribute to the “selfless dedication” of the war generation.
Among them will be a 99-year-old who took part in the D-Day landings and a 100-year-old woman who worked in the Special Operations Executive, known as Churchill’s Secret Army.
Director general of the Royal British Legion, Mark Atkinson, said the charity was “proud” to be taking a place “at the heart of these national celebrations and commemorations” on the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War.
He said it would be “one of our last opportunities as a nation to pay tribute to those veterans still with us today”.
Evacuees from World War Two and veterans who were still in active conflict after VE Day are among the other guests set to attend the tea party, which will take place in the presence of the King and other members of the Royal Family.
Image: The Royal Family will watch a military procession and flypast on Monday. File pic: PA
At 12pm, the Royal Family will observe a military procession, followed by a flypast.
It will be the first major VE Day anniversary without any of the royals who stood on the balcony of Buckingham Palace on the day victory in Europe was declared, after the death of the late Queen Elizabeth II in 2022.
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‘Not just for Britain’
The celebrations come as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer praised veterans for their “selfless dedication” and thanked them for a “debt that can never fully be repaid” in an open letter ahead of VE Day.
He said the stories which will be heard this week from those who fought in the Second World War would be a reminder that the victory “was not just for Britain” but was also “a victory for good against the assembled forces of hatred, tyranny and evil”.
Sir Keir said the WW2 veterans “represent the best of who we are” and that without their service “the freedom, peace and joy that these celebrations embody, would not be possible”.
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VE Day veteran tells Sky News what the atmosphere was like when WWII was finally declared over in Europe
Personnel from NATO allies the US, France and Germany will be among those taking part in the procession in London.
The commemorations will begin with the words of Sir Winston Churchill‘s 1945 victory speech, spoken by actor Timothy Spall.
Thousands of people are expected to line the streets of the capital to witness the celebrations.
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On the anniversary itself on Thursday, marking exactly 80 years since the Allies formally accepted Germany’s surrender, a service of commemoration will be held at Westminster Abbey, to include a national two minutes’ silence.
Pubs across England and Wales, which usually close at 11pm, will also stay open for an extra two hours to allow punters more time to celebrate.
Eight men have been arrested by the Metropolitan Police in two unconnected but “significant” terrorism investigations.
In one operation on Saturday, counter-terror officers arrested five men – four of whom are Iranian nationals – as they swooped in on various locations around the country. All are in police custody.
The Met said the arrests related to a “suspected plot to target a specific premises”.
In an update shortly after midnight, the force said: “Officers have been in contact with the affected site to make them aware and provide relevant advice and support, but for operational reasons, we are not able to provide further information at this time.”
Commander Dominic Murphy, head of the Met’s Counter Terrorism Command, said: “Counter-terrorism policing, supported by police and colleagues from across the country, have conducted arrests in two really significant operations, both of which have been designed to keep the public safe from threats.
“There are several hundred officers and staff working on this investigation, and we will work very hard to ensure we understand the threats to the wider public.”
He refused to say if the plot was related to Israel, but described it as “certainly significant” and said “it is unusual for us to conduct this scale of activity”.
He also asked the public to “avoid speculation and some of the things that are being posted online”.
MI5 director general Ken McCallum said in October that the intelligence agency had responded to 20 “potentially lethal” Iran-backed plots since 2022. He warned of the risk of an “increase or broadening of Iranian state aggression in the UK”.
Rochdale resident Kyle Warren, who witnessed one of the arrests at a neighbouring house, said his children had been playing in the garden when they came running into the house, saying a man in a mask had told them to go inside.
“Obviously, I was a bit worried,” Mr Warren told Sky News’ Lisa Dowd, and so he went into the garden to investigate.
“As we’ve come out, we just heard a massive bang, seen loads of police everywhere with guns, shouting at us to get inside the house.”
Image: Kyle Warren said his children were ‘petrified’
From upstairs in his house, he then heard “loads of shouting in the house” and saw a man being pulled out of the back of the house, “dragged down the side entry and thrown into all the bushes and then handcuffed”.
There were about 20 to 30 officers with guns, he believes.
“It’s just shocking, really. You don’t expect it on your doorstep.”
His daughters were “petrified… I don’t think they’ve ever seen a gun, so to see 20 masked men with guns running round was quite scary for them”.
Mr Warren, who only moved into his house a year ago, said he had “never really seen anyone going in or out” of the house and actually thought it was empty.
Image: One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash
Image: One suspect was arrested in Cheadle Hulme, Greater Manchester. Pic: Sarah Cash
Arrests and searches around the country
The Met added officers were carrying out searches at a number of addresses in the Greater Manchester, London and Swindon areas in connection with the investigation.
It said those detained were:
• A 29-year-old man arrested in the Swindon area • A 46-year-old man arrested in west London • A 29-year-old man arrested in the Stockport area • A 40-year-old man arrested in the Rochdale area • A man whose age was not confirmed arrested in the Manchester area.
Image: A 29-year-old man was arrested in the Stockport area
Terror arrests in separate investigation
Police also arrested three further Iranian nationals in London on Saturday as part of another, unrelated counter-terror investigation.
The suspects were detained under section 27 of the National Security Act 2023, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “These were two major operations that reflect some of the biggest counter state threat and counter terrorism operations that we have seen in recent years.
“This reflects the complexity of the kinds of challenges to our national security that we continue to face.”
Earlier, she thanked police and security services in a statement, and called the incidents “serious events that demonstrate the ongoing requirement to adapt our response to national security threats”.
Last year, the government placed the whole of the Iranian state – including its intelligence services – on the enhanced tier of the new foreign influence registration scheme.
It means anyone asked by Iran to carry out actions for the state must declare it, or face prison time.
And that comes in the context of increased warnings from government and the security services about Iranian activity on British soil.
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Counter terror officers raid property
Last year, the director general of MI5, Ken McCallum, said his organisation and police had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since January 2022.
He linked that increase to the ongoing situation in Iran’s own backyard.
“As events unfold in the Middle East, we will give our fullest attention to the risk of an increase in – or a broadening of – Iranian state aggression in the UK,” he said.
The implication is that even as Iran grapples with a rapidly changing situation in its own region, having seen its proxies, Hezbollahin Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, decimated and itself coming under Israeli attack, it may seek avenues further abroad.
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The government reiterated this warning only a few weeks ago, with security minister Dan Jarvis addressing parliament.
“The threat from Iran sits in a wider context of the growing, diversifying and evolving threat that the UK faces from malign activity by a number of states,” Jarvis said.
“The threat from states has become increasingly interconnected in nature, blurring the lines between: domestic and international; online and offline; and states and their proxies.
“Turning specifically to Iran, the regime has become increasingly emboldened, asserting itself more aggressively to advance their objectives and undermine ours.”
As part of that address, Jarvis highlighted the National Security Act 2023, which “criminalises assisting a foreign intelligence service”, among other things.
So it was notable that this was the act used in one of this weekend’s investigations.
The suspects were detained under section 27 of the same act, which allows police to arrest those suspected of being “involved in foreign power threat activity”.