Conservative MPs on the right of the party have called on the government to scrap its Rwanda bill, just 24 hours before it is due to be voted on in parliament.
It comes as a number of Tory MPs revealed to Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates that Number 10 is threatening to call an early election if they vote against the legislation in the Commons on Tuesday – though some were sceptical Downing Street would follow through.
The bill would declare Rwanda a safe country, and empower ministers to ignore parts of the Human Rights Act to limit any appeals against people being removed from the UK.
But the chairman of the European Research Group, Mark Francois, said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from his wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.
The so-called “five families” of Tory right-wing factions, representing around 100 MPs, were invited to a meeting on Monday to discuss legal advice on the legislation, led by the ERG – which became a household name in the Brexit years.
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In the summary of the ERG’s conclusions – put together by their so-called “star chamber” of legal experts – the group said: “The bill overall provides a partial and incomplete solution to the problem of legal challenges in the UK courts being used as stratagems to delay or defeat the removal of illegal migrants to Rwanda.
“The prime minister may well be right when he claims that this is the ‘toughest piece of migration legislation ever put forward by a UK government’, but we do not believe that it goes far enough to deliver the policy as intended.
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“Resolving, comprehensively, the issues raised by this analysis would require very significant amendments, some of which would potentially be outside the current title’s scope, and the final bill would look very different.”
Are there enough rebel MPs to bring down the Rwanda bill?
Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.
We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.
Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.
But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.
At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.
Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.
But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenchers, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.
They also represent around 100 MPs, and if they deem the bill to have gone too far against our international human rights obligations, there is another swathe of politicians who could bring down the bill.
With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, its understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.
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In the ERG’s document, they listed numerous problems they had with the bill, including what they saw as a “limited disapplication” of the UK’s Human Rights Act and only “limited exclusions” of international human rights treaties.
The group did not say in their conclusions whether they planned to vote against the bill on Tuesday, or instead abstain on it to give them the chance to make amendments to the law at a later parliamentary stage.
But speaking later on Monday, Mr Francois said: “The feeling very much in the meeting is that the government would be best advised to pull the bill and to come up with a revised version that works better than this one, which has so many holes in it.
“In as much as there was a consensus, that was the consensus.”
He added: “We all want to stop the boats. There have been two legislative attempts at this already… that didn’t quite work so this is kind of three strikes and you’re out, isn’t it?
“What is really important if we are going to put a bill through parliament is to have a piece of legislation which is fit for purpose. As the bill is currently drafted, it isn’t.”
Image: Rishi Sunak’s plan to ‘stop the boats’ is under threat by his own MPs
His thoughts were echoed by the deputy chair of the ERG, and fellow Tory MP, David Jones, who added: “I don’t think the bill is easily amendable and really I think the government needs to review it and maybe consider a completely new piece of legislation.
“Because this leaves so many gaps in the legislation and so many ways that people could actually evade the legislation if they wanted to remain in this country.”
But posting on X – formerly known as Twitter – another ERG member and Tory MP, Michael Fabricant, said he would still vote in favour of the government bill, writing: “It is not perfect (no bill ever is), but I agree with its principle: to deter the slavers providing dangerous channel crossings. Amendments can then be made later in the usual way.”
Mr Francois confirmed right-wing MPs would be holding another meeting on Monday evening to decide on what action to take in the Commons.
Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who resigned last week over his opposition to the bill, will speak at the gathering.
New Conservatives co-chairman Danny Kruger also revealed the MPs would be having “further conversations with government over the course of the next 24 hours” – with Sky News understanding the PM will host a breakfast meeting with 20 or so of the right-wing group’s members on Tuesday morning.
At the same time, the more centrist faction of the Conservatives, known as the One Nation caucus, will also meet to discuss the bill, with reports some of their MPs think it goes too far in disavowing human rights legislation.
Meanwhile, Home Secretary James Cleverly held his own briefing for MPs on Monday afternoon to try to get them onboard.
Speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby as he left the gathering, he said: “I’m determined to get [the bill] through. It’s important legislation and part of our plan to break the people smuggling that cost lives.”
Rwanda battle lines drawn – and it’s going to get ugly
Battle lines are now drawn on different sides of the Tory party, and the moment of conflict is fast approaching.
All sides are quite dug in. This is going to get ugly.
The European Research Group of Brexiteers has published its conclusions about Rishi Sunak’s emergency legislation.
They say it needs “very significant” changes – some of which might be outside the scope of this bill – to get their support.
This is a hard ask. Any legislation that emerges from such a negotiation would, they say, “look very different” to what was published by parliament last week
Rishi Sunak already says he went as far as he possibly could. Now this group wants him to go a lot further.
Although we do not yet know how Tory MPs will vote on the bill come Tuesday, this sets up a significant clash either this week or post-Christmas.
The ERG’s legal judgement now represents the formal view of the group, but it remains unclear how far their writ can go.
The New Conservatives – the post-2016 Tory right – the Northern Research Group and others were invited to this meeting but did not attend.
Yet it is hard to see many people in these groups not agreeing with this judgement, and at some point displaying their dissatisfaction in the division lobbies.
The clash could yet be deferred beyond Tuesday – we will find that out later. But this is very serious and it is unclear how Rishi Sunak deals with it.
Soon after the ERG’s conclusions were published, the government took the unusual move of publishing a summary of its legal advice this afternoon in light of “significant interest” and the “need to be as clear as possible for the public and parliamentarians”.
In the advice, it said completely blocking any court challenges – something right-wing Tory MPs are keen on – would be “a breach of international law and alien to the UK’s constitutional tradition of liberty and justice, where even in wartime the UK has maintained access to the courts in order that individuals can uphold their rights and freedoms”.
The document also said the government of Rwanda had been clear it would withdraw from the scheme if the UK breached its international obligations, which would “render the bill unable to work in achieving the policy intention of deterrence – as there would be no safe country for the purposes of removal”.
Publishing the advice was seen as an attempt by the government to woo MPs into supporting the bill, but the ERG’s latest statement deals that hope a massive blow.
Only 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the government – or 57 need to abstain – for the bill to be defeated when it comes to the Commons on Tuesday.
It would be the first time a government bill has fallen at the second reading since the 1980s.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has defended “unpopular” policies such as the cut to the winter fuel allowance despite Labour’s poor performance at the local elections.
Mr Streeting denied the government had made any mistakes when asked whether the policy was partly to blame for the party losing 189 council seats less than a year since the General Election.
Since coming into government last July, Labour has enacted a number of policies that were not in its manifesto.
Asked what mistakes his government had made so far that had led to its drubbing at the ballot box, Mr Streeting told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “Well, we will make plenty of mistakes.”
Pressed again on whether he believed “mistakes” had been made, the health secretary replied: “No. When we made those choices, we knew they would be unpopular. And we knew that they would be opposed.
“The reason we made those choices is because we genuinely believe they’re the right choices to get the country out of the massive hole it was left in. And right across the board. Whether it’s the NHS, whether it’s schools, whether it’s prisons, whether it’s our defence and security, whether it’s crime and policing, there were enormous challenges facing this country when we came in.
“And we’ve had to make big and sometimes unpopular decisions so that we can face those challenges and deal with them. People might thank us if we just kind of go for the easy but we want to make the right choices.”
Some Labour MPs have urged the government to change direction, with one telling Sky News the cut to winter fuel was a “catastrophic error” that must be “remedied” if the party is to see any improvement in public opinion.
Others have warned that in courting Reform voters, the party risks fracturing its coalition of voters on the left who may be tempted by the Liberal Democrats and Green Party.
However, in the aftermath of the local elections, Sir Keir Starmer suggested the poor results meant he needed to go “further and faster” in delivering his existing agenda.
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Inside Reform’s election success
The real victor to emerge from Thursday’s local elections was Reform UK, which won control of 10 councils and picked up 677 council seats largely at the expense of the Conservatives in the south.
However, Reform also won the Runcorn by-election from Labour by just six votes, as well as control of Doncaster Council from Labour – the only local authority it had control of in this set of elections – in a significant win for Nigel Farage and his party.
The Reform UK leader declared that two-party politics was now “finished” and that his party was now the official “opposition” to Labour.
Asked whether the results meant that Labour would now treat Reform as “your most serious opposition”, Mr Streeting said: ” I certainly do treat them as a serious opposition force.”
“As I say, I don’t know whether it will be Reform or the Conservatives that emerge as the main threat,” he added.
“I don’t have a horse in that race, but like alien versus predator, I don’t really want either one to win.”
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Reform UK are ‘fighting force’
Tory Party chairman Nigel Huddleston said Reform UK was not just a protest party and that Mr Farage was “a force in British politics”.
He told Trevor Phillips: “But the one thing about Nigel Farage is, and we’re seeing this again and again and again, he is a populist.
“He is increasingly saying everything that anybody wants to hear. He’s trying to be all things to all men.”
“We are establishing ourselves as a credible alternative government based on sound conservative principles and values and our values and our principles, and therefore our policies, will define the future of our party,” he added.
Kemi Badenoch has admitted it is “feasible” that Nigel Farage could become the next prime minister.
The Tory leader told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme Mr Farage’s party was “expressing the feeling of frustration that a lot of people around the country are feeling” – but added it was her job to “come up with answers and solutions”.
Asked if it was feasible that Mr Farage could be the next prime minister, she cited how Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had won re-election this weekend.
“As I said, anything is feasible,” she said. “Anthony Albanese: people were writing him off. He has just won a landslide, but my job is to make sure that he [Farage] does not become prime minister because he does not have the answers to the problems the country is facing.”
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Could Nigel Farage be prime minister?
Asked what Mr Farage was doing right, Ms Badenoch said: “He is expressing the feeling of frustration that a lot of people around the country are feeling.
“But he also doesn’t have a record in government like the two main parties do. Now he’s going to be running some councils. We’ll see how that goes.”
Mr Farage was the undoubted winner of Thursday’s local elections, in which 23 councils were up for grabs.
His party picked up 677 council seats and took control of 10 councils.
By contrast, the Conservatives lost 677 council seats as well as control of 18 councils in what was their worst local elections performance on record.
Mr Farage said the outcome spelt the end of two-party politics and that his party was now the official “opposition” to Labour – with the Tories having been rendered a “waste of space”.
Ms Badenoch said she believed the vote for Mr Farage on Thursday was partly down to “protest” but added: “That doesn’t mean we sit back. We are going to come out fighting.
“We are going to come out with the policies that people want to see, but what we are not going to do is rush out and tell the public things that are not true just so we can win votes.
“This is not about winning elections; this is about fixing our country. Yes, of course, you need to win elections to do that, but you also need a credible plan.”
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10:39
‘Farage is a force in British politics’
Conservative co-chairman Nigel Huddleston sought to play down the threat from Reform UK, telling Sky News: “When they’re in a position of delivering things, that’s when the shine comes off.”
He told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “The one thing about Nigel Farage is, and we’re seeing this again and again and again, he is a populist.
“He is increasingly saying everything that anybody wants to hear. He’s trying to be all things to all men.”
“We are establishing ourselves as a credible alternative government based on sound conservative principles and values and our values and our principles, and therefore our policies, will define the future of our party,” he added.
Asked whether the results meant that Labour would now treat Reform as “your most serious opposition”, Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Trevor Phillips: ” I certainly do treat them as a serious opposition force.”
“As I say, I don’t know whether it will be Reform or the Conservatives that emerge as the main threat,” he added.
“I don’t have a horse in that race, but like alien versus predator, I don’t really want either one to win.”
A group of US Senate Democrats known for supporting the crypto industry have said they would oppose a Republican-led stablecoin bill if it moves forward in its current form.
The move threatens to stall legislation that could establish the first US regulatory framework for stablecoins, according to a May 3 report from Politico.
Per the report, nine Senate Democrats said in a joint statement that the bill “still has numerous issues that must be addressed.” They warned they would not support a procedural vote to advance the legislation unless changes are made.
Among the signatories were Senators Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner, Lisa Blunt Rochester and Andy Kim — all of whom had previously backed the bill when it passed through the Senate Banking Committee in March.
The bill, introduced by Senator Bill Hagerty, is formally known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.
The Senate is expected to begin floor consideration of the bill in the coming days, with the first vote potentially taking place next week.
The bill has been championed by the crypto industry as a landmark step toward regulatory clarity. However, the Democrats’ about-face reflects growing unease within the party.
Although revisions were made to the bill after its committee approval to address Democratic concerns, the lawmakers said the changes fell short. They called for stronger safeguards related to Anti-Money Laundering, national security, foreign issuers, and accountability measures for noncompliant actors.
The statement was also signed by Senators Raphael Warnock, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ben Ray Luján, John Hickenlooper and Adam Schiff.
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Senator Angela Alsobrooks were absent from the list, who co-sponsored the bill alongside Hagerty.
Despite their objections, the Democratic senators emphasized their commitment to shaping responsible crypto regulation. They reportedly said they “are eager to continue working with our colleagues to address these issues.”
On April 27, Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, criticized the US Federal Reserve for quietly maintaining a key anti-crypto policy that favors big-bank-issued stablecoins, despite relaxing crypto partnership rules for banks.
The guidance, according to Long, blocks banks from engaging directly with crypto assets and prohibits them from issuing stablecoins on permissionless blockchains.
However, Long noted that once a federal stablecoin bill becomes law, it could override the Fed’s stance. “Congress should hurry up,” she urged.