Tories call on PM to scrap Rwanda bill as MPs claim Sunak is threatening an early election if they rebel
Conservative MPs on the right of the party have called on the government to scrap its Rwanda bill, just 24 hours before it is due to be voted on in parliament.
It comes as a number of Tory MPs revealed to Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates that Number 10 is threatening to call an early election if they vote against the legislation in the Commons on Tuesday – though some were sceptical Downing Street would follow through.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak revealed the new law last week in an attempt to revive the scheme that would see asylum seekers arriving by small boat crossings deported to the African nation, after the Supreme Court ruled in November that it was unlawful.
The bill would declare Rwanda a safe country, and empower ministers to ignore parts of the Human Rights Act to limit any appeals against people being removed from the UK.
But the chairman of the European Research Group, Mark Francois, said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from his wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.
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The so-called “five families” of Tory right-wing factions, representing around 100 MPs, were invited to a meeting on Monday to discuss legal advice on the legislation, led by the ERG – which became a household name in the Brexit years.
In the summary of the ERG’s conclusions – put together by their so-called “star chamber” of legal experts – the group said: “The bill overall provides a partial and incomplete solution to the problem of legal challenges in the UK courts being used as stratagems to delay or defeat the removal of illegal migrants to Rwanda.
“The prime minister may well be right when he claims that this is the ‘toughest piece of migration legislation ever put forward by a UK government’, but we do not believe that it goes far enough to deliver the policy as intended.
“Resolving, comprehensively, the issues raised by this analysis would require very significant amendments, some of which would potentially be outside the current title’s scope, and the final bill would look very different.”
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In the ERG’s document, they listed numerous problems they had with the bill, including what they saw as a “limited disapplication” of the UK’s Human Rights Act and only “limited exclusions” of international human rights treaties.
The group did not say in their conclusions whether they planned to vote against the bill on Tuesday, or instead abstain on it to give them the chance to make amendments to the law at a later parliamentary stage.
But speaking later on Monday, Mr Francois said: “The feeling very much in the meeting is that the government would be best advised to pull the bill and to come up with a revised version that works better than this one, which has so many holes in it.
“In as much as there was a consensus, that was the consensus.”
He added: “We all want to stop the boats. There have been two legislative attempts at this already… that didn’t quite work so this is kind of three strikes and you’re out, isn’t it?
“What is really important if we are going to put a bill through parliament is to have a piece of legislation which is fit for purpose. As the bill is currently drafted, it isn’t.”
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His thoughts were echoed by the deputy chair of the ERG, and fellow Tory MP, David Jones, who added: “I don’t think the bill is easily amendable and really I think the government needs to review it and maybe consider a completely new piece of legislation.
“Because this leaves so many gaps in the legislation and so many ways that people could actually evade the legislation if they wanted to remain in this country.”
But posting on X – formerly known as Twitter – another ERG member and Tory MP, Michael Fabricant, said he would still vote in favour of the government bill, writing: “It is not perfect (no bill ever is), but I agree with its principle: to deter the slavers providing dangerous channel crossings. Amendments can then be made later in the usual way.”
Mr Francois confirmed right-wing MPs would be holding another meeting on Monday evening to decide on what action to take in the Commons.
Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who resigned last week over his opposition to the bill, will speak at the gathering.
New Conservatives co-chairman Danny Kruger also revealed the MPs would be having “further conversations with government over the course of the next 24 hours” – with Sky News understanding the PM will host a breakfast meeting with 20 or so of the right-wing group’s members on Tuesday morning.
At the same time, the more centrist faction of the Conservatives, known as the One Nation caucus, will also meet to discuss the bill, with reports some of their MPs think it goes too far in disavowing human rights legislation.
Meanwhile, Home Secretary James Cleverly held his own briefing for MPs on Monday afternoon to try to get them onboard.
Speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby as he left the gathering, he said: “I’m determined to get [the bill] through. It’s important legislation and part of our plan to break the people smuggling that cost lives.”
Rwanda battle lines drawn – and it’s going to get ugly
Battle lines are now drawn on different sides of the Tory party, and the moment of conflict is fast approaching.
All sides are quite dug in. This is going to get ugly.
The European Research Group of Brexiteers has published its conclusions about Rishi Sunak’s emergency legislation.
They say it needs “very significant” changes – some of which might be outside the scope of this bill – to get their support.
This is a hard ask. Any legislation that emerges from such a negotiation would, they say, “look very different” to what was published by parliament last week
Rishi Sunak already says he went as far as he possibly could. Now this group wants him to go a lot further.
Although we do not yet know how Tory MPs will vote on the bill come Tuesday, this sets up a significant clash either this week or post-Christmas.
The ERG’s legal judgement now represents the formal view of the group, but it remains unclear how far their writ can go.
The New Conservatives – the post-2016 Tory right – the Northern Research Group and others were invited to this meeting but did not attend.
Yet it is hard to see many people in these groups not agreeing with this judgement, and at some point displaying their dissatisfaction in the division lobbies.
The clash could yet be deferred beyond Tuesday – we will find that out later. But this is very serious and it is unclear how Rishi Sunak deals with it.
Soon after the ERG’s conclusions were published, the government took the unusual move of publishing a summary of its legal advice this afternoon in light of “significant interest” and the “need to be as clear as possible for the public and parliamentarians”.
In the advice, it said completely blocking any court challenges – something right-wing Tory MPs are keen on – would be “a breach of international law and alien to the UK’s constitutional tradition of liberty and justice, where even in wartime the UK has maintained access to the courts in order that individuals can uphold their rights and freedoms”.
The document also said the government of Rwanda had been clear it would withdraw from the scheme if the UK breached its international obligations, which would “render the bill unable to work in achieving the policy intention of deterrence – as there would be no safe country for the purposes of removal”.
Publishing the advice was seen as an attempt by the government to woo MPs into supporting the bill, but the ERG’s latest statement deals that hope a massive blow.
Only 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the government – or 57 need to abstain – for the bill to be defeated when it comes to the Commons on Tuesday.
It would be the first time a government bill has fallen at the second reading since the 1980s.
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Rachel Reeves has been warned that firms face a “make-or-break moment” at next month’s budget.
The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) urged the chancellor, who is widely expected to announce tax hikes in November’s budget to fill a gap in the public finances, to steer clear of increasing levies on businesses.
Ms Reeves raised taxes by £40bn last year and the BCC said business confidence had not recovered since.
“Last year’s budget took the wind from their sails, and they have been struggling to find momentum ever since,” BCC director-general Shevaun Haviland said.
She said firms felt “drained” and could not plan ahead as they expected “further tax demands to be laid at their feet” when the budget is delivered on 26 November.
“The chancellor must seize this moment and use her budget to deliver a pro-growth agenda that can restore optimism and belief amongst business leaders,” Ms Haviland added.
“This year’s budget will be a make-or-break moment for many firms.”
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The BCC also called for a reform of business rates and the removal of the windfall tax on gas and oil introduced by the last government.
In its submission, the industry body outlined more than 60 recommendations, including the proposal of further infrastructure investment, cuts to customs barriers and action on skill shortages.
Earlier this year, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced Labour would aim to approve 150 major infrastructure projects by the next election, with Labour already pledging to support expansions of both Heathrow and Gatwick airports – another of the BCC’s requests.
While the Treasury would not comment on budget speculation, a spokesperson insisted Ms Reeves would “strike the right balance” between ensuring funding for public services and securing economic growth.
She has vowed to stick to Labour’s manifesto pledges not to raise taxes on “working people”.
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Household spending on the wane
The BCC’s plea to halt further tax rises on businesses comes as retail sales growth slowed in September.
“With the budget looming large, and households facing higher bills, retail spending rose more slowly than in recent months,” Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said.
“Rising inflation and a potentially taxing budget is weighing on the minds of many households planning their Christmas spending.”
Total retail sales in the UK increased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, against growth of 2% in September 2024 and above the 12-month average growth of 2.1%, according to BRC and KPMG data.
While food sales were up by 4.3% year-on-year, this was largely driven by inflation rather than volume growth.
Non-food sales growth slowed to 0.7% against the growth of 1.7% last September, making it below the 12-month average growth of 0.9%.
Total retail sales in the UK increased in September compared to the year before. File pic: PA
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Online non-food sales only increased by 1% against last September’s growth of 3.4%, which was below the 12-month average growth of 1.8%.
“The future of many large anchor stores and thousands of jobs remains in jeopardy while the Treasury keeps the risk of a new business rates surtax on the table,” Ms Dickinson said.
“By exempting these shops when the budget announcements are made, the chancellor can reduce the inflationary pressures hammering businesses and households alike.”
I’ve been around a while and seen a lot of the insides of international summits over the years, but this one was truly extraordinary.
Over 20 leaders flew to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt from all over the world – Indonesia, Pakistan, Norway, Canada – to witness the signing of Donald Trump’s peace plan.
Gaza deal signed – as it happened
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‘We have peace in Middle East’
This historic day was pure theatre for Trump from start to finish. Flying in from Israel, where he had met hostage families and then addressed the Israeli parliament, he arrived a whopping three hours late, keeping a gaggle of world leaders waiting.
We stood around in corridors watching them move from one room to another to hold meetings with each other, presumably to talk about phase two of Trump’s peace deal.
Testimony to the power of Trump
At one point, Sir Keir Starmer’s meeting with his Turkish counterpart included France’s Emmanuel Macro. That then somehow morphed into a summit which also brought in the Germans, Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and the leaders of Egypt and Qatar. More chairs kept coming into the room until there was the equivalent of a cabinet table of leaders and advisors sitting in a long line facing each other.
What they were talking about was how each country could help in phase two of the peace effort. Now Trump had, alongside fellow signatories of this deal – Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey – ended the war, could they maintain the peace?
As Starmer put it: “We can’t treat today as historic and let it drop tomorrow.”
But these mini summits in the margins happened by fault rather than design. This day really was designed to bear witness – and offer acknowledgement – to Trump. All of these leaders turned up pretty much in the dark as to what the day held, with his peace summit convened 48 hours earlier.
That they dropped plans to make their way to Egypt is testimony to the power Trump wields.
World leaders at the Gaza peace summit
He was utterly omnipotent. First, there was the greeting ceremony, in which each leader filed in individually for a photo and handshake with him before all returning to the stage for the family photo.
Then, at the signing ceremony, Trump sat with his three fellow signatories as the world leaders stood behind him.
“This took 3,000 years to get to this point. Can you believe it?” Trump said as he signed that deal. “And it’s going to hold up, too. It’s going to hold up.”
Finally, in another giant hall, Trump gave a speech in which he ran through all the leaders who had turned up – praising them or fondly poking a bit of fun at them accordingly, as (most) of them stood behind him.
He teased Macron for sitting in the front row rather than joining the others on the stage, joking it wasn’t like him to be low-key. He described Meloni as a “beautiful young woman”.
“I’m not allowed to say it because usually it’s the end of your political career if you say it – she’s a beautiful young woman,” said Trump mid-speech. “You don’t mind being called beautiful, right? Because you are,” he turned to say to her – her reaction obscured from view.
Now for the ‘easy part’?
Soon after, the prime minister of Pakistan, invited to say a few remarks by Trump, renewed his call for the US president to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Having brokered the deal, Trump took the moment and made it into his summit on his terms, as fellow leaders fell into line, literally standing behind him. And in his characteristic bullishness, he told his audience in this final speech that the hard part – the ceasefire – had been done, and rebuilding Gaza was the easy part.
U.S. President Donald Trump talks to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer
That isn’t really what the rest of them believe: 92% of Gazans have been displaced, the Gaza Strip is a wasteland. Organising a peacekeeping force, getting Hamas to disarm and Israel to withdraw from the strip, putting together a technocratic team and peace board to oversee the running of Gaza still needs to be done.
This was a largely celebratory day, but there are concerns whether this deal will hold up. Trump says Hamas needs to disarm and disband, and yet one of their most senior leaders told Sky News a few days ago, it won’t.
Meanwhile, there is a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The UK has in short order sent in £20m of aid to try to help with sanitation.
On the British side, the prime minister said he had offered to help demilitarise the strip, saying the UK can take a role in “monitoring the ceasefire but also decommissioning the capability of Hamas and their weaponry, drawing on our experience in Northern Ireland”.
“It’s really important we keep that focus. We mustn’t have any missteps now,” he said.
Drone footage of Gaa
Trump’s peace board is still in its infancy – Starmer told me he isn’t going to sit on it, with the make-up still being discussed, while Tony Blair’s participation is controversial.
Trump said on the way over to Egypt that he was going to canvass opinion to make sure everyone is happy with the former prime minister’s presence. It comes after Bassem Naim of Hamas told Sky News that Blair was not welcome in Gaza after his role in the invasion of Iraq.
When I asked Starmer if he thought Trump should be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize he said “there’ll be plenty of people, I’m sure, nominating him” – as he paid tribute to him for getting “leaders to this position”.
Now the task for them all is to implement what Trump has set in train. If his plan works, he would be sitting on an achievement that has eluded successive US presidents for decades.
Trump should rightly be lauded for ending the war, now he must bring the peace.
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