Conservative MPs on the right of the party have called on the government to scrap its Rwanda bill, just 24 hours before it is due to be voted on in parliament.
It comes as a number of Tory MPs revealed to Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates that Number 10 is threatening to call an early election if they vote against the legislation in the Commons on Tuesday – though some were sceptical Downing Street would follow through.
The bill would declare Rwanda a safe country, and empower ministers to ignore parts of the Human Rights Act to limit any appeals against people being removed from the UK.
But the chairman of the European Research Group, Mark Francois, said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from his wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.
The so-called “five families” of Tory right-wing factions, representing around 100 MPs, were invited to a meeting on Monday to discuss legal advice on the legislation, led by the ERG – which became a household name in the Brexit years.
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In the summary of the ERG’s conclusions – put together by their so-called “star chamber” of legal experts – the group said: “The bill overall provides a partial and incomplete solution to the problem of legal challenges in the UK courts being used as stratagems to delay or defeat the removal of illegal migrants to Rwanda.
“The prime minister may well be right when he claims that this is the ‘toughest piece of migration legislation ever put forward by a UK government’, but we do not believe that it goes far enough to deliver the policy as intended.
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“Resolving, comprehensively, the issues raised by this analysis would require very significant amendments, some of which would potentially be outside the current title’s scope, and the final bill would look very different.”
Are there enough rebel MPs to bring down the Rwanda bill?
Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.
We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.
Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.
But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.
At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.
Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.
But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenchers, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.
They also represent around 100 MPs, and if they deem the bill to have gone too far against our international human rights obligations, there is another swathe of politicians who could bring down the bill.
With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, its understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.
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In the ERG’s document, they listed numerous problems they had with the bill, including what they saw as a “limited disapplication” of the UK’s Human Rights Act and only “limited exclusions” of international human rights treaties.
The group did not say in their conclusions whether they planned to vote against the bill on Tuesday, or instead abstain on it to give them the chance to make amendments to the law at a later parliamentary stage.
But speaking later on Monday, Mr Francois said: “The feeling very much in the meeting is that the government would be best advised to pull the bill and to come up with a revised version that works better than this one, which has so many holes in it.
“In as much as there was a consensus, that was the consensus.”
He added: “We all want to stop the boats. There have been two legislative attempts at this already… that didn’t quite work so this is kind of three strikes and you’re out, isn’t it?
“What is really important if we are going to put a bill through parliament is to have a piece of legislation which is fit for purpose. As the bill is currently drafted, it isn’t.”
Image: Rishi Sunak’s plan to ‘stop the boats’ is under threat by his own MPs
His thoughts were echoed by the deputy chair of the ERG, and fellow Tory MP, David Jones, who added: “I don’t think the bill is easily amendable and really I think the government needs to review it and maybe consider a completely new piece of legislation.
“Because this leaves so many gaps in the legislation and so many ways that people could actually evade the legislation if they wanted to remain in this country.”
But posting on X – formerly known as Twitter – another ERG member and Tory MP, Michael Fabricant, said he would still vote in favour of the government bill, writing: “It is not perfect (no bill ever is), but I agree with its principle: to deter the slavers providing dangerous channel crossings. Amendments can then be made later in the usual way.”
Mr Francois confirmed right-wing MPs would be holding another meeting on Monday evening to decide on what action to take in the Commons.
Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, who resigned last week over his opposition to the bill, will speak at the gathering.
New Conservatives co-chairman Danny Kruger also revealed the MPs would be having “further conversations with government over the course of the next 24 hours” – with Sky News understanding the PM will host a breakfast meeting with 20 or so of the right-wing group’s members on Tuesday morning.
At the same time, the more centrist faction of the Conservatives, known as the One Nation caucus, will also meet to discuss the bill, with reports some of their MPs think it goes too far in disavowing human rights legislation.
Meanwhile, Home Secretary James Cleverly held his own briefing for MPs on Monday afternoon to try to get them onboard.
Speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby as he left the gathering, he said: “I’m determined to get [the bill] through. It’s important legislation and part of our plan to break the people smuggling that cost lives.”
Rwanda battle lines drawn – and it’s going to get ugly
Battle lines are now drawn on different sides of the Tory party, and the moment of conflict is fast approaching.
All sides are quite dug in. This is going to get ugly.
The European Research Group of Brexiteers has published its conclusions about Rishi Sunak’s emergency legislation.
They say it needs “very significant” changes – some of which might be outside the scope of this bill – to get their support.
This is a hard ask. Any legislation that emerges from such a negotiation would, they say, “look very different” to what was published by parliament last week
Rishi Sunak already says he went as far as he possibly could. Now this group wants him to go a lot further.
Although we do not yet know how Tory MPs will vote on the bill come Tuesday, this sets up a significant clash either this week or post-Christmas.
The ERG’s legal judgement now represents the formal view of the group, but it remains unclear how far their writ can go.
The New Conservatives – the post-2016 Tory right – the Northern Research Group and others were invited to this meeting but did not attend.
Yet it is hard to see many people in these groups not agreeing with this judgement, and at some point displaying their dissatisfaction in the division lobbies.
The clash could yet be deferred beyond Tuesday – we will find that out later. But this is very serious and it is unclear how Rishi Sunak deals with it.
Soon after the ERG’s conclusions were published, the government took the unusual move of publishing a summary of its legal advice this afternoon in light of “significant interest” and the “need to be as clear as possible for the public and parliamentarians”.
In the advice, it said completely blocking any court challenges – something right-wing Tory MPs are keen on – would be “a breach of international law and alien to the UK’s constitutional tradition of liberty and justice, where even in wartime the UK has maintained access to the courts in order that individuals can uphold their rights and freedoms”.
The document also said the government of Rwanda had been clear it would withdraw from the scheme if the UK breached its international obligations, which would “render the bill unable to work in achieving the policy intention of deterrence – as there would be no safe country for the purposes of removal”.
Publishing the advice was seen as an attempt by the government to woo MPs into supporting the bill, but the ERG’s latest statement deals that hope a massive blow.
Only 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the government – or 57 need to abstain – for the bill to be defeated when it comes to the Commons on Tuesday.
It would be the first time a government bill has fallen at the second reading since the 1980s.
Sir Keir Starmer could decide to lift the two-child benefit cap in the autumn budget, amid further pressure from Nigel Farage to appeal to traditional Labour voters.
The Reform leader will use a speech this week to commit his party to scrapping the two-child cap, as well as reinstating winter fuel payments in full.
There are now mounting suggestions an easing of the controversial benefit restriction may be unveiled when the chancellor delivers the budget later this year.
According to The Observer, Sir Keir told cabinet ministers he wanted to axe the measure – and asked the Treasury to look for ways to fund the move.
The Financial Times reported it may be done by restoring the benefit to all pensioners, with the cash needed being clawed back from the wealthy through the tax system.
The payment was taken from more than 10 million pensioners this winter after it became means-tested, and its unpopularity was a big factor in Labour’s battering at recent elections.
Before Wednesday’s PMQs, the prime minister and chancellor had insisted there would be no U-turn.
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Will winter fuel U-turn happen?
Many Labour MPs have called for the government to do more to help the poorest in society, amid mounting concern over the impact of wider benefit reforms.
Former prime minister Gordon Brown this week told Sky News the two-child cap was “pretty discriminatory” and could be scrapped by raising money through a tax on the gambling industry.
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Brown questioned over winter fuel U-turn
Mr Farage, who believes Reform UK can win the next election, will this week accuse Sir Keir of being “out of touch with working people”.
In a speech first reported by The Sunday Telegraph, he is expected to say: “It’s going to be these very same working people that will vote Reform at the next election and kick Labour out of government.”
South Western Railway (SWR) has been renationalised this weekend as part of the government’s transition towards Great British Railways.
The train operator officially came under public ownership at around 2am on Sunday – and the first journey, the 5.36am from Woking, was partly a rail replacement bus service due to engineering works.
So what difference will renationalisation make to passengers and will journeys be cheaper?
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What is nationalisation?
Nationalisation means the government taking control of industries or companies, taking them from private to public ownership.
Britain’s railway lines are currently run by train operating companies as franchises under fixed-term contracts, but Labour have said they want to take control of the lines when those fixed terms end.
In its manifesto, the party vowed to return rail journeys to public ownership within five years by establishing Great British Railways (GBR) to run both the network tracks and trains.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said renationalising SWR was “a watershed moment in our work to return the railways to the service of passengers”.
“But I know that most users of the railway don’t spend much time thinking about who runs the trains – they just want them to work,” she added. “That’s why operators will have to meet rigorous performance standards and earn the right to be called Great British Railways.”
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How reliable are UK trains?
How will ticket prices be affected?
Labour have argued cutting off payments flowing into the private sector could save the taxpayer £150m a year.
But the government has not explicitly promised the savings made from nationalisation will be used to subsidise fees.
It is unlikely rail fares will fall as a result of nationalisation, rail analyst William Barter told Sky News.
“The government could mandate fare cuts if it wanted to, but there’s no sign it wants to,” he said.
“At the moment, I’m sure they would want to keep the money rather than give it back to passengers. The current operator aims to maximise revenue, and there’s no reason the government would want them to do anything differently under government control.”
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UK has most expensive train tickets in Europe
What difference will it make for passengers?
Britain’s railways are frequently plagued by delays, cuts to services and timetable issues, but Mr Barter said nationalisation will make very little day-to-day difference to passengers.
There was “no reason to think” the move would improve issues around delays and cancellation of services, he said.
“It’s going to be the same people, the same management,” he explained.
“The facts of what the operator has to deal with in terms of revenue, infrastructure, reliability, all the rest of it – they haven’t changed.”
Image: Pic: PA
Which services are being next to be nationalised?
In the longer term, the move is likely to bring “a degree of certainty compared with relatively short-term franchises”, Mr Barter said, noting the government would only want to renationalise a franchise “because in one way or another something very bad is going on in that franchise, so in a way it can only get better”.
It also means the government will have greater accountability for fixing problems with punctuality and cancellations.
Mr Barter said: “If this is the government’s baby, then they’re going to do their best to make sure it doesn’t fail. So rather than having a franchise holder they can use as a political scapegoat, it’s theirs now.”
He added: “In the short term, I don’t think you’d expect to see any sort of change. Long term, you’ll see stability and integration bringing about gradual benefits. There’s not a silver bullet of that sort here.”
Next to be renationalised later this year will be c2c and Greater Anglia, while seven more companies will transfer over when their franchises end in the future.
Sir Alan Bates has accused the government of presiding over a “quasi kangaroo court” for Post Office compensation.
Writing in The Sunday Times, the campaigner, who led a years-long effort for justice for sub-postmasters, revealed he had been given a “take it or leave it” offer that was less than half of his original claim.
“The sub-postmaster compensation schemes have been turned into quasi-kangaroo courts in which the Department for Business and Trade sits in judgement of the claims and alters the goal posts as and when it chooses,” he said.
“Claims are, and have been, knocked back on the basis that legally you would not be able to make them, or that the parameters of the scheme do not extend to certain items.”
More than 900 sub-postmasters were prosecuted between 1999 and 2015 after faulty Horizon accounting software made it look as if money was missing from their accounts.
Many are still waiting for compensation despite the previous government saying those who had their convictions quashed were eligible for £600,000 payouts.
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‘It still gives me nightmares’
After the Post Office terminated his contract over a false shortfall in 2003, Sir Alan began seeking out other sub-postmasters and eventually took the Post Office to court.
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A group litigation order (GLO) scheme was set up to achieve redress for 555 claimants who took the Post Office to the High Court between 2017 and 2019.
Sir Alan, who was portrayed by actor Toby Jones in ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office, has called for an independent body to be created to deliver compensation.
He added that promises the compensation schemes would be “non-legalistic” had turned out to be “worthless”.
It is understood around 80% of postmasters in Sir Alan’s group have accepted a full and final redress, or been paid most of their offer.
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‘Lives were destroyed’
A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson told Sky News: “We pay tribute to all the postmasters who’ve suffered from this scandal, including Sir Alan for his tireless campaign for justice, and we have quadrupled the total amount paid to postmasters since entering government.
“We recognise there will be an absence of evidence given the length of time which has passed, and we therefore aim to give the benefit of the doubt to postmasters as far as possible.
“Anyone unhappy with their offer can have their case reviewed by a panel of experts, which is independent of the government.”