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Rishi Sunak is fighting to save his flagship Rwanda bill ahead of a crunch vote this evening that could be fatal to his authority.

The embattled prime minister will host an emergency breakfast in Downing Street this morning with would-be rebels who have warned that “major surgery” is still required to fix the legislation.

The Safety of Rwanda Bill aims to revive the stalled £290m scheme to deport asylum seekers who arrive by small boat to the east African nation, after the Supreme Court ruled it unlawful.

MPs on the right of the party have said the bill does not go far enough to avoid being blocked again by the courts.

But in a sign of the challenge facing the prime minister, moderates from the opposite wing said the government must “stick to its guns”, warning that any further changes to appease the right-wingers would breach international law and prove “unacceptable”.

As tensions between the two sides flared on Monday night, senior Tories made a rallying cry for unity.

Whatever happens in the vote, Sunak is in deep trouble

In making flights to Rwanda this totemic policy of his premiership, the prime minister has stoked a civil war in this party which threatens to blow up his benches and his leadership, as Brexit did for Theresa May.

Because just as with Brexit, the left and right of the party is split, unable to find common ground.

Over the next 24 hours, he will urge the right-wing rebels to stick with him. But what is so obviously clear is that winning tomorrow is only the beginning, not the end of the war.

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Former defence secretary Ben Wallace urged his colleagues not to “wreck” the government over the Rwanda plan, describing immigration as a “Rubik’s cube of a problem”.

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“Both Labour and the Conservatives have gone from pillar to post on the issue and never has any good come of it,” he wrote in the Daily Telegraph.

“Before anyone in my party thinks the solution to this Rubik’s cube is to wreck the government, perhaps we should calmly state that we are heading in the right direction and making progress.”

He said that while the Rwanda bill is “not a silver bullet”, the vote in the Commons tomorrow should be seen as a further step in “building deterrence” and “will make it more likely that some illegal immigrants are sent to Africa”.

Former attorney general Sir Geoffrey Cox also urged his party colleagues to back the Rwanda bill, telling BBC Newsnight: “I am surprised my colleagues feel it is so porous to legal challenge, because it seems to me it has been drafted very tightly.

“I think it is about as far you could go without risking the complete blockage and collapse of the bill.”

Read More:
What is the revamped Rwanda asylum plan and what hurdles does it face?

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Mr Sunak has tried to find a middle ground in response to the Supreme Court ruling. His bill declares Rwanda as safe and allows ministers to disapply the UK’s Human Rights Act – but does not go as far as overriding the European Convention on Human Rights.

Tomorrow’s vote on the legislation will be the most serious test of the prime minister’s leadership since he took office in October last year. No government has suffered a defeat at a second reading since 1986.

The backing of the One Nation caucus was a boost to the prime minister – who spent most of Monday in front of the COVID-19 inquiry – and his hopes for getting the bill through the key parliamentary stage.

But it came with a warning too, as chairman Damian Green said MPs would oppose any amendments that would risk the UK breaching the rule of law and its international obligations.

This is at odds with the position of many groups on the right of the party who also met to discuss the legislation yesterday.

Are there enough rebel MPs to bring down the Rwanda bill?

Jennifer Scott

Politics Reporter

@NifS

Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.

We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.

Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.

But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.

At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.

Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.

But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenches, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.

They also represent around 100 MPs. Tonight they have recommended members back the bill – though of course some may choose not to.

And even if they do, it does not mean the fight is over – as they have said they won’t support any changes to toughen up the bill – something those on the right are calling for.

With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, it’s understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.

The New Conservatives said that around 40 MPs – including former immigration minister Robert Jenrick and former home secretary Suella Braverman alongside senior MPs Sir Simon Clarke and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg – gathered to discuss the bill.

A spokesman warned: “Every member of that discussion said the bill needs major surgery or replacement and they will be making that plain in the morning to the PM at breakfast and over the next 24 hours.”

Meanwhile Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from this wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.

Despite criticising the bill, the groups on the right have yet to say how they will vote.

Various ministers were deployed on Monday to brief MPs and win over wavering party colleagues, with Attorney General Victoria Prentis addressing the One Nation faction while Home Secretary James Cleverly spoke to MPs in a separate gathering in a Commons committee room.

It takes 29 MPs to vote against, or 57 MPs to abstain, for the legislation to be rejected – with no clarity on whether Mr Sunak could survive such a defeat in practice.

Read More:
Rwanda bill should stop 99.5% of migrant claims, minister says
When could the next General Election be?

A number of Tory MPs revealed to Sky News’ deputy political editor Sam Coates that Number 10 is threatening to call an early election if they vote against the legislation – though some were sceptical Downing Street would follow through.

In a rare move intended to win over critics, the government produced a summary of its own legal position in support of the new bill on Monday.

It said completely blocking any court challenges would be “a breach of international law and alien to the UK’s constitutional tradition of liberty and justice, where even in wartime the UK has maintained access to the courts in order that individuals can uphold their rights and freedoms”.

The document also said the government of Rwanda had been clear it would withdraw from the scheme if the UK breached its international obligations.

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Weather warnings: 30,000 lightning strikes hit UK – with roads flooded and landslip disrupting trains

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Weather warnings: 30,000 lightning strikes hit UK - with roads flooded and landslip disrupting trains

Roads have been flooded and a landslip has disrupted trains as the UK was hit by tens of thousands of lightning strikes during thunderstorms – with severe weather warnings in place for large parts of the country.

It follows the hottest day of the year on Friday, which saw a high of 29.4C (84.9F) in Santon Downham in Suffolk.

The Met Office has issued an amber weather warning until 6pm across the South West, North East and North of England, Wales and much of Scotland.

Check the weather forecast where you are

It said there had been more thann 30,000 lightning strikes during the night, with the “vast majority” over the sea.

The Met Office has warned some areas could see 30-50mm of rain in a few hours, while a few locations could reach up to 80mm.

At the same time, strong wind gusts and hail accompanying the storms could potentially bring road flooding, difficult driving conditions, power cuts and flooding of homes and businesses.

The Environment Agency urged the public not to drive through flood water, reminding drivers that “just 30cm of flowing water is enough to move your car.”

A further yellow warning is in force in the eastern half of Northern Ireland from 6am to 6pm on Saturday, while a similar warning has been in place across the South East of England overnight following an amber alert on Friday.

Thunderstorm warnings are in place until Saturday evening. Pic: Met Office
Image:
Thunderstorm warnings are in place until Saturday evening. Pic: Met Office

Kent experienced heavy rainfall overnight, with flooded roads in parts of Dover, while a fire in a residential building in St Leonards-on-Sea on Friday night was likely caused by a lightning strike, the East Sussex Fire and Rescue Service say.

Devon received five flood warnings overnight by the Environment Agency, alongside 46 flood alerts in the South West, South East and Midlands.

A further six flood alerts have been put in place by Natural Resources Wales in South Wales.

National Rail said a landslip had stopped all services between Exeter St Davids and Okehampton, with the weather conditions meaning it is not safe for engineers to reach the site. Disruption is expected until around 1pm.

Other rail operators also warned customers to check for updates on services on Saturday morning.

Heathrow Airport apologised to passengers late on Friday night for flights delayed by “adverse weather conditions”.

Sky News weather producer Steff Gaulter said: “The most active thunderstorms are over parts of Wales, Northern Ireland, Northern England and Scotland, and some are still bringing localised downpours and strong winds.

“The storms will continue northwards, becoming largely confined to Northern Ireland and Scotland by the afternoon. Elsewhere will see a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers tending to ease during the day.

“Then from tomorrow an area of high pressure will start to stretch towards us, and the weather next week is looking far calmer and quieter.”

Read more from Sky News:
Is Ibiza at breaking point?
Why is Ballymena the site of riots?

Despite the risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, not everyone will see rain during the day, with the driest and brightest weather expected in the South East, which will remain very warm.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued its first yellow heat-health alert of the year, active until 8am on Sunday in the east of England, East Midlands, London, and the South East.

Under the UKHSA and the Met Office’s weather-health alerting system, a yellow alert means there could be an increased use of healthcare services by vulnerable people.

A yellow alert warns of a possible spike in vulnerable people accessing healthcare, and health risks for the over-65s and those with conditions such as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

While scientists have not assessed the role of global warming in this short-term event, in general they expect more heavy downpours as the climate changes.

That’s largely because hotter air can hold more moisture and so releases more water when it rains.

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Why did Ballymena become the latest site of anti-immigration riots?

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Why did Ballymena become the latest site of anti-immigration riots?

There have now been five consecutive nights of ongoing violence and disorder on the streets of Northern Ireland, with Ballymena at the focus of the unrest following a serious sexual assault on a teenage girl in the town on 7 June.

Two 14-year-old boys were arrested and charged after the incident, and police in Northern Ireland said the pair used a Romanian interpreter to plead not guilty in court.

After that, calls for “peaceful protest” from the victim’s father were amplified online. Those protests took on an anti-immigration angle and erupted into riots and clashes with police.

Analysis of social media messaging has shown there were already rising tensions in the town before the latest incident, following a decade of rapid demographic change.

Before the protests

On 30 May, eight days before the 7 June incident in the Clonavon Terrace area that triggered this week’s violence, police released a statement regarding a different sexual assault in Ballymena, this time of a 13-year-old girl.

The offence was alleged to have taken place on a public footpath near the Ballykeel housing estates, during daylight hours on Saturday 24 May.

Local media at the time reported the suspect as having “dark-coloured skin, dark brown eyes, and speaking in a foreign language”.

On 31 May, a far-right news aggregator on messaging platform Telegram was already sharing information related to this incident, saying “Ballymena said to be at boiling point”.

Telegram message from 31 May, a whole week before the riots, describes the town as "at boiling point"

But the online chatter remained relatively contained until after the police announcement on the evening of Sunday 8 June, that they had arrested the two 14-year-olds charged with the Clonavon Terrace incident.

Analysis of posts on X, formerly known as Twitter, shows that there were 114 mentions of Ballymena per day from 3-7 June.

It was mentioned 142 times on 8 June, then surged up to 10,300 on 9 June and 78,300 the following day. The majority of posts originated outside of Northern Ireland.

Rapid demographic change

The descriptions of the alleged perpetrators of the two incidents have contributed to the anti-immigrant sentiment of the violence.

Sky News has seen Union flags and signs saying “British household” or “Locals live here” left outside homes of people keen to avoid being targeted, and has also spoken to Bulgarian nationals in Ballymena who say that they are “terrified” and “scared to get out of the house”.

A sign on a door in Ballymena reading, 'locals live here'

Speaking in the House of Commons, Jim Allister, MP for North Antrim, which includes Ballymena, said he was “appalled” by the violence. “However”, he said, “the government must be aware of underlying tensions produced by uncontrolled and often undocumented immigration.

“None of that excuses violence, but it is a matter of concern to many.”

Analysis of census data shows there has been rapid demographic change in the town since 2011. No other part of Northern Ireland has seen a bigger increase in people who don’t speak English/Irish as a first language.

At the time of the 2021 census, three in 10 residents of central Ballymena said their first language was something other than English or Irish.

One in eight listed Romanian, with a similar number listing other Eastern European languages like Bulgarian, Polish and Slovak.

That figure is almost seven times higher than the average across Northern Ireland, and amounts to a trebling over the course of the decade.

Almost three-quarters of the total foreign-born population of central Ballymena arrived in the country since 2011.

The average is significantly lower for Northern Ireland as a whole, and England and Wales, where the rate of change has been more gradual.

Of 621 primary schools in Northern Ireland where data is available, Ballymena Primary and Harryville Primary, both in central Ballymena, had the 7th and 8th highest share of “newcomer pupils”.

“Newcomer” is the term used by the Northern Irish Department for Education to refer to pupils who don’t have satisfactory language skills to participate fully in the school curriculum.

How, and when, will the violence end?

Sky’s Connor Gillies, who has been in Ballymena reporting on the violence and talking to locals for the past few days, said on Wednesday that “the talk here is that this unrest is only just beginning,” adding that “it could go on for weeks”.

Meanwhile, locals have expressed that they don’t like the talk from police and politicians that taking to the streets following an alleged sex attack on a teenage girl equates to them being “racist thugs”.

Police have responded to rioters’ petrol bombs and bricks with rubber bullets and water cannon onslaughts of their own. There have been tens of arrests, as well as injuries to more than 50 police officers since Monday evening.

Violence and disorder in Ballymena raged across Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, appearing to have largely abated in the town by Thursday. However, the unrest has spread to other areas including Larne, Coleraine, Portadown and Belfast.

A senior police officer insisted to Sky News that he did have “a grip” on the unravelling situation when questioned by Sky News, but officers from Scotland, Wales and England have been sent to bolster the forces of their Northern Irish colleagues.

Anti-migrant rhetoric

From 7-12 June, 39,000 Ballymena-related posts on X mentioned “migrants”, with around 95% of them deemed to be negative by social media analysis tool Talkwalker.

Well-known far-right activist Tommy Robinson, who thanked X-owner Elon Musk for his support when he was released from prison four months early on 27 May, was the most influential poster.

His 14 X posts about Ballymena between 7-12 June reached an average of 1.3 million accounts each.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Royals to pay tribute to Air India crash victims at Trooping the Colour

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Royals to pay tribute to Air India crash victims at Trooping the Colour

Members of the Royal Family will wear black armbands “as a mark of respect” to those involved in the Air India crash at tomorrow’s Trooping the Colour parade.

There will also be a minute’s silence at the event following Thursday’s crash in the city of Ahmedabad, western India.

Following the crash, which killed at least 241 people, the King asked for some amendments to be made to his traditional birthday parade on Saturday.

A palace spokesperson said Charles wanted the alterations “as a mark of respect for the lives lost, the families in mourning and all the communities affected by this awful tragedy”.

The crashed Air India plane in Ahmedabad India, 13 June. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The remnants of the crashed Air India plane in Ahmedabad. Pic: Reuters

The minute’s silence will be held after the King inspects the guard on Horse Guards Parade. It will be signalled in the traditional way by a Last Post and Reveille.

Charles and the senior royals riding in the ceremony will wear black armbands, as will postilions, coachmen and coachwomen from the Royal Mews.

They will not be worn by family members who are wearing civilian clothes.

The King said he and the Queen were “desperately shocked by the terrible events in Ahmedabad” after the crash on Thursday.

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On the ground at India plane crash site

A statement from Buckingham Palace continued: “Our special prayers and deepest possible sympathy are with the families and friends of all those affected by this appallingly tragic incident across so many nations, as they await news of their loved ones.

“I would like to pay a particular tribute to the heroic efforts of the emergency services and all those providing help and support at this most heartbreaking and traumatic time.”

Union flags have today been flown at half-mast on all royal residences and government buildings.

Alterations have been made to the Trooping event before.

In 2017, Queen Elizabeth requested a minute’s silence to be held during the parade as a mark of respect to those who died in the Grenfell Tower fire three days earlier.

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Indian PM meets lone survivor of crash

Read more:
Who are the Air India crash victims?
King meets D-Day veterans

This year, the Coldstream Guards will Troop their Colour and display their banner flag as they mark their 375th anniversary.

A decade later, in 1660, the regiment marched down from Berwick to help restore the monarchy, dissolve Parliament and bring King Charles II back to the throne.

The royals on the balcony at Buckingham Palace. Pic: PA
Image:
The royals on the balcony at last year’s Trooping the Colour. Pic: PA

More than 1,000 soldiers and 200 horses from the Household Division will be involved in the spectacular display, with members of the Royal Family also taking part on horseback or travelling along the Mall in carriages.

Last year, the King joined Camilla in a carriage, rather than riding, after being diagnosed with cancer months earlier in February.

It’s been reported he will do the same this year, but this has not been confirmed by the palace.

The event will finish with the traditional balcony moment, as members of the Royal Family gather to watch a flypast of military aircraft, including The Red Arrows.

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