UK economy finds reverse gear with surprise decline in October
The UK economy took a surprise tumble in October, according to an early official estimate that showed a contraction of 0.3%.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that output in all three main divisions – services, manufacturing and construction – was in negative territory.
Economists had expected a flat performance, following on from the 0.2% growth seen in September.
That meagre figure helped the economy to zero growth for the third quarter of the year, easing concerns over the prospect for a recession which is realised if a country records two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Nevertheless, the latest data builds on expectations of a largely flat performance ahead, despite a series of growth measures announced by the chancellor in his autumn statement last month.
Jeremy Hunt said of the ONS figures: “It is inevitable GDP (gross domestic product) will be subdued whilst interest rates are doing their job to bring down inflation.”
Action taken by the Bank of England since December 2021 to tame inflation was intended to hit demand in the economy, helping the pace of price growth ease.
While the rate of inflation has slowed considerably from the figure above 11% seen just over a year ago, prices are still rising but just at a steadier pace.
The effect of interest rate hikes imposed by the Bank has added to borrowing costs, with rising mortgage and rent bills becoming a key plank of the cost of living crisis.
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How bad is the UK’s economy?
The Bank warned earlier this month that five million households were yet to feel the home loan hit because their fixed terms had not expired.
Household spending power has, to some extent, been propped up by a record pace for wage growth but data on Tuesday showed sharp falls in the levels of awards.
Consumers were still, however, enjoying the best real wage growth – when inflation is accounted for – for two years due to the steep easing in the inflation rate in October.
The Bank’s monetary policy committee has seen enough progress in bringing inflation down to have kept Bank rate at 5.25% for two consecutive meetings.
It is due to outline its next rate decision on Thursday, with financial markets and economists widely expecting a further pause.
ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, said of Wednesday’s data: “Our initial estimates suggest that GDP growth was flat across the last three months.
“Increases in services, led by engineering, film production and education – which recovered from the impact of summer strikes – were offset by falls in both manufacturing and housebuilding.
“October, however, saw contractions across all three main sectors. Services were the biggest driver of the fall with drops in IT, legal firms and film production – which fell back after a couple of strong months.
“These were also compounded by widespread falls in manufacturing and construction, which fell partly due to the poor weather.”
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “Rishi Sunak ends the year having failed to deliver on his own promise to grow the economy.
“Economic growth is going backwards leaving working people worse off,” she said.
Business
Chancellor’s Mansion House speech vows to rip up red tape – saying post-financial crash rules went ‘too far’
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has criticised post-financial crash regulation, saying it has “gone too far” – setting a course for cutting red tape in her first speech to Britain’s most important gathering of financiers and business leaders.
Increased rules on lenders that followed the 2008 crisis have had “unintended consequences”, Ms Reeves will say in her Mansion House address to industry and the City of London’s lord mayor.
“The UK has been regulating for risk, but not regulating for growth,” she will say.
It cannot be taken for granted that the UK will remain a global financial centre, she is expected to add.
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It’s anticipated Ms Reeves will on Thursday announce “growth-focused remits” for financial regulators and next year publish the first strategy for financial services growth and competitiveness.
Rachel Reeves
Bank governor to point out ‘consequences’ of Brexit
Also at the Mansion House dinner the governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will say the UK economy is bigger than we think because we’re not measuring it properly.
A new measure to be used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – which will include the value of data – will probably be “worth a per cent or two on GDP”. GDP is a key way of tracking economic growth and counts the value of everything produced.
Brexit has reduced the level of goods coming into the UK, Mr Bailey will also say, and the government must be alert to and welcome opportunities to rebuild relations.
Mr Bailey will caveat he takes no position on “Brexit per se” but does have to point out its consequences.
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Bailey: Inflation expected to rise
In what appears to be a reference to the debate around UK immigration policy, Mr Bailey will also say the UK’s ageing population means there are fewer workers, which should be included in the discussion.
The greying labour force “makes the productivity and investment issue all the more important”.
“I will also say this: when we think about broad policy on labour supply, the economic arguments must feature in the debate,” he’s due to add.
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The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS call.
Mr Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.
He will say: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this. The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”
Business
Reeves has welcome support from Bank’s governor as she goes for growth and seeks to woo City
When Gordon Brown delivered his first Mansion House speech as chancellor he caused a stir by doing so in a lounge suit, rather than the white tie and tails demanded by convention.
Some 27 years later Rachel Reeves is the first chancellor who would have not drawn a second glance had they addressed the City establishment in a dress.
As the first woman in the 800-year history of her office, Ms Reeves’s tenure will be littered with reminders of her significance, but few will be as symbolic as a dinner that is a fixture of the financial calendar.
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Her host at Mansion House, asset manager Alastair King, is the 694th man out of 696 Lord Mayors of London. The other guest speaker, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey, leads an institution that is yet to be entrusted to a woman.
Ms Reeves’s speech indicates she wants to lean away from convention in policy as well as in person.
By committing to tilting financial regulation in favour of growth rather than risk aversion, she is going against the grain of the post-financial crash environment.
“This sector is the crown jewel in our economy,” she will tell her audience – many of whom will have been central players in the 2007-08 collapse.
Sending a message that they will be less tightly bound in future is not natural territory for a Labour chancellor.
Her motivation may be more practical than political. A tax-and-spend budget that hit business harder than forewarned has put her economic program on notice and she badly needs the growth elements to deliver.
Rachel Reeves on budget day. Pic: PA
Her plans to consolidate local authority pension schemes so they might match the investing power of their Canadian and Australian counterparts is part of the same theme.
Infrastructure investment is central to Reeves’s plan and these steps, universally welcomed, could unlock the private sector funding required to make it happen.
Bank governor frank on Brexit and growth
If the jury is out in a business financial community absorbing £25bn in tax rises, she has welcome support from Mr Bailey.
He is expected to deliver some home truths about the economic inheritance in plainer language than central bankers sometimes manage.
Britain’s growth potential, he says, “is not a good story”. He describes the labour market as “running against us” in the face of an ageing population.
With investment levels “particularly weak by G7 standards”, he will thank the chancellor for the pension reforms intended to unlock capital investment.
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Governor warns inflation expected to rise
He is frank about Brexit too, more so than the chancellor has dared.
While studiously offering no view on the central issue, Mr Bailey says leaving the EU had slowed the UK’s potential for growth, and that the government should “welcome opportunities to rebuild relations”.
There is a more coded warning too about the risks of protectionism, which is perhaps more likely with Donald Trump in the White House.
“Amid threats to economic security, let’s please remember the importance of openness,” the Bank governor will say.
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All that is welcome for Ms Reeves.
Already a groundbreaking chancellor, she is aiming for a political and economic legacy that extends beyond her gender and the dress code.
Water company United Utilities has reported hundreds of millions in profit as it seeks to further increase customer bills.
The utility serving seven million customers in the northwest of England recorded £335.7m in underlying operating profits for the first half of this year, up nearly 23% from £271.1m a year ago.
It comes as the firm has requested bills rise 32% to make them among the most expensive in England and Wales.
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The proposed average annual bill would increase to £584 by 2030 from the £443 typical yearly charge in the 2023/2024 financial year. Since April 2023 bills have been upped 6.4% and then 7.9%.
Bills hikes were behind the rise in revenue to more than £1.08bn from £975.4m in 2023.
Other ways of assessing profit were lower than the underlying operating sum. Profit before tax reached £140.6m while after tax profit topped £103.1m for the six months to the end of September 2024, both lower than a year earlier.
Boss’s pay
Bonus and benefits payments worth £1.416m were paid to two executives on top of £1.128m in base pay, according to analysis of company filings done by the Liberal Democrats.
It’s down compared with 2022/2023 when three executives were given £1.6m in base pay and £2.456m in bonuses and benefits.
Read more:
Water giant United Utilities strikes £1.8bn pension deal
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The environment
In a year of record sewage outflows into waterways the company was one of just three firms that met the Environment Agency’s top four-star performance ranking.
United Utilities in July came under investigation by water regulator Ofwat for not meeting its obligation to minimise pollution.
In response the company said at the time: “We understand and share people’s concerns about the health of the environment and the operation of wastewater systems, including combined sewer overflows.”
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