Lego, fossil fuels and the COP28 climate deal: What toy bricks tell us about the immense difficulties of going green
The last-minute deal agreed at the COP28 summit in Dubai to move away from fossil fuels is being heralded as a major breakthrough.
But while it’s the first time these annual climate negotiations have agreed to reduce our reliance on coal, oil and gas, it stops short of what many campaigners had been demanding: a promise to phase out fossil fuel use altogether.
Which raises a question: Why?
Why couldn’t the meeting go one step further and promise to leave all fossil fuels in the ground?
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Applause for ‘historic’ COP28 deal
Perhaps the best answer begins somewhere unexpected: with a piece of Lego.
Most Lego bricks are made of a plastic called Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene, or ABS for short. It’s a tough thermoplastic, which is to say one of those plastics you can melt down and form back into other shapes again, and it’s brilliant at doing all the things Lego bricks need to do.
It’s incredibly durable. It can be moulded precisely, with tolerances of within four microns, meaning one brick fits neatly into another.
Finally, it has pretty unbeatable “clutch power”, as the company calls it: the bricks stick together robustly but are also pretty easy to pull apart.
But ABS is made, like nearly all plastics, out of chemicals derived from oil and gas.
A few years ago Lego committed to trying to make its blocks not directly from oil but from other feedstocks.
After much investigation it experimented with using old plastic bottles – or recycled polyethylene terephthalate (RPET), to use the technical term.
But, try as it might, it struggled to make this RPET work as well as ABS. The only way to make it perform as well as the old brick – the rigidity, the accuracy, the “clutch” – was to process it and reprocess it, adding a host of additional materials along the way.
A few months ago, it revealed that in practical terms those efforts – thus far – had failed. Ironically enough, it took more energy to turn those recycled bottles into bricks than it did to take oil and turn it into bricks.
Fossil fuels are hard to beat
Now, it’s still relatively early days. But Lego’s efforts are a pretty good reminder of something pretty profound. Like it or not, fossil fuels are remarkably good at what they do.
We use them in vast quantities because they are a brilliant source of energy and a brilliant source of chemicals.
Coal, demonised as it may be these days, isn’t just good at firing up power stations; it’s also nearly unbeatable (in its coked form) at helping you turn certain ores into metals.
The good news – from a carbon cutting perspective – is that we’re getting better and better at finding alternatives to most of the things fossil fuels do.
Electric cars are in many ways better than the petrol cars they’re replacing. Wind and solar panels are very good at generating electricity – though we’re still working on reliable, affordable and green ways to back up the grid when the wind’s not blowing.
But for certain purposes – purposes far more serious than some toy building blocks – it’s still very hard to beat fossil fuels.
We still rely on natural gas for most of the world’s nitrogen fertiliser production, without which half of the world would starve.
We still have yet to find a way of mass producing concrete without spewing a lot of carbon dioxide into the air. And making plastics without oil is, as Lego learnt to its cost, tricky, to say the least.
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Now, there are very smart people working on all of the above and there are really promising green candidates for many of these tricky fossil fuel products.
But many remain at the prototype stage, a very long way from being able to compete on a level playing field with their industrial counterparts.
The upshot is that even the most ambitious plans for how we might reduce global carbon emissions still assume we’ll be using fossil fuels come 2050 – and potentially into the foreseeable future beyond that too.
Even optimistic plans admit we’ll need some fossil fuels
Take the International Energy Agency (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 plan.
This framework has all the green credentials – indeed it’s often cited approvingly by organisations like Just Stop Oil, since its models suggest there’s no need for further oil and gas exploration.
But even this plan still assumes we’ll be getting more than a fifth of our energy from fossil fuels (mostly oil and gas) come 2050.
Now it’s worth saying, about a third of those 2050-vintage fossil fuels are not being burnt, but are instead being turned into products like plastics (including Lego bricks, if they haven’t cracked it by then).
Which is an important distinction because they won’t be responsible for the carbon emissions we’re really concerned with.
But that still leaves a lot of fossil fuels being burnt – a lot of them in the engines of planes (sustainable aviation fuel will only get us so far, thinks the IEA) and some to do all those other tricky things like making fertilisers and so on.
And here’s the key thing, the thing one can’t emphasise enough: this is not a conservative plan. This is about the most optimistic plan you’ll find among policymakers today (that doesn’t involve drastic changes in living standards).
But even this plan for net zero depends on a large chunk of fossil fuels being burnt.
Some of the emissions, reckons the IEA, can be captured and squirrelled away underground (“carbon capture and storage” or CCS as it’s called) – though it’s worth saying CCS is one of those technologies that’s still barely been carried out at large scale.
But even after you subtract that, there’s still a not unsubstantial amount of unabated fossil fuel burning going on.
Even in 2050. Even in the most optimistic of all likely pathways.
And here’s the other thing you need to know. We’re already falling far short of that pathway.
Right now our oil production is way, way above where that IEA pathway said it should be.
Reasons for hope
Global carbon emissions are now so far beyond where they should be heading if we wanted to keep global warming below the 1.5C threshold most campaigners are pushing for.
Indeed, a glance at the statistics suggests that that goal is now incredibly unlikely – some would say impossible.
Yet for all of this, there’s plenty of reasons for hope.
Overall emissions may be higher than we’d like them to be, but by the same token they’re considerably lower than they seemed to be heading back in 2015.
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Carbon emissions: The global picture
Thanks to technologies like wind turbines, batteries and solar panels, the world is getting better at generating clean energy quicker than expected.
The very scariest climate outcomes look much less likely today than they did a few years ago – according to the IPCC’s own analysis.
But the more we wrestle with the difficulties of the energy transition, the clearer it is how enormous the challenge ahead remains. And a forensic look at that challenge underlines why there’s a very big difference between pledging to “phase down” and to “phase OUT” fossil fuels.
The former is doable – and it’s pretty extraordinary it’s taken this long for COP ministers to commit to it.
Achieving the latter by 2050 while maintaining today’s levels of living standards is close to inconceivable.
Headlights illuminate a group of soldiers smoking and drinking steaming cups of coffee on the side of a road in northeastern Ukraine.
A fine sleet on another freezing night falls on the silhouetted barrel of a Soviet-era anti-aircraft gun mounted on an ancient, battered lorry.
These are the men of a mobile air defence unit, preparing for another night of tracking and attempting to shoot out of the skies the Russian drones heading for cities and power plants across Ukraine.
We joined the units over 48 hours in the southern sector of the city of Sumy, near the border with Russia.
Captain Serhii, of the 117th Brigade, is a commander in charge of 160 of these men in eight mobile units protecting this area of northeastern Ukraine.
Commander Serhii looking for drones on his scanner
We met up with him in an empty car park next to a high-rise apartment block in Sumy.
Sitting in his 4×4 he squinted in concentration as his scanner showed a handful of drones on a flight path heading towards us from Russia.
Air raid sirens blared in the background.
He signalled for us to follow, and he sped off into the night weaving through checkpoints along empty, darkened country roads.
He had said the drone was near, but we were confused when he suddenly pulled off the road and jumped out of his cab.
Within moments the skies were lit up by mobile anti-aircraft batteries firing into the sky.
Tracers from the bullets flew over our heads and above us we could hear the monotonous sound of the drone as it passed overhead.
Searchlights reflected off a dank, dense fog that had enveloped the countryside criss-crossed in the sky as the units tried to spot the drone.
They didn’t spot or hit the drone, and slowly the sound of its motors grew dimmer and dimmer until there was silence.
“You can see the current weather conditions, it’s foggy, so we’re basically working off sound alone, as thermal imaging and other devices can’t pick them up,” Captain Serhii told me.
“A spotlight is completely pointless, the speed of these drones isn’t particularly high, so technically, we could hit them, but the weather makes it impossible,” he added.
Every night across Ukraine the tarpaulin covers are pulled off these Soviet-era anti-aircraft guns and prepared for action.
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On battered trucks they rumble into the night to take up defensive positions.
These old guns are the country’s main defence against an increasing number of drone attacks from Russia.
The units here say they mostly encounter two types of drones which are usually deployed at the same time: Gerberas and Shaheds.
Gerberas do not carry an explosive payload but instead are designed to confuse Ukraine’s air defence, while the Iranian-supplied Shahed drones carry explosives with pre-programmed targets.
One of the soldiers, Volodymyr, tracks the drones on a handheld tablet. All the men wait, watch the screen, and listen.
“They generally fly between 200-300m up to 3km,” Volodymyr tells me.
“If they’re flying lower than 300m above sea level, the radar won’t pick them up.”
The men start to gather around their anti-air battery unit as a drone flies closer towards our location.
Stuart Ramsay and Volodymyr
The gunner then jumps onto the truck and searches for the target on a radar attached to his weapon.
He will fire when it’s within a 10km range of his position.
The night-time silence in the middle of the field is suddenly shattered by the deafening sound of firing as the gunner goes for the drone.
Then in the fields all around us other units join the attack – it’s so dark we had no idea they were even there.
It’s absolutely relentless.
Captain Serhii tells me their critical job would be made easier with more sophisticated weapons like the American-made Patriot system.
“We need a stronger, more automated air defence system that operates independently of human involvement,” he said.
“Winter is approaching, and our guys who are on duty 24/7 will face incredibly tough conditions, they aren’t made of steel, so having an automated system would be ideal.”
Anti-aircraft unit firing at drones from their truck
He believes any political negotiations with Russia will just end badly for Ukraine.
“A frozen conflict is typically just a temporary pause, and you can’t trust [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, because any agreement made will likely work in Russia’s favour,” he told me.
“They’ll stockpile resources, more Shaheds, rockets, soldiers, even North Koreans, and then they’ll return, and they’ll come back stronger than they did in 2022.”
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We join another mobile unit, this time by the side of an empty road as they track another Iranian Shahed drone.
It’s flying in our direction and they’re waiting to see if it will come into range.
It does, and they too attack – firing powerful rounds at their target.
The red, orange, and yellow flashes of colour as the weapon fires light up an otherwise pitch-black sky.
In the 48-hour period we spent with the anti-aircraft units in this part of the Sumy region, Russia deployed a record number of drones into Ukraine.
Ukraine, for its part, deployed a record number of drones against Russia too, but the number is dwarfed by the Russian assault.
Night after freezing night these Ukrainian defenders, hundreds of them around this city, will man these guns.
The last line of defence – not good, but better than nothing.
World
Pakistan: Satellite images show smog over Punjab visible from space – as record levels of air pollution recorded
Satellite images show that smog in Pakistan can be seen from space, as the country battles record levels of air pollution.
Images from NASA Worldview show the east of the country cloaked in a toxic haze, with smog also reaching into India’s northern regions and New Dehli.
Lahore, the capital of Pakistan’s Punjab region and home to 14 million people, had an air quality index of more than 400 on Tuesday morning, according to IQAir, which tracks global air quality.
Any reading above 300 is considered hazardous – anything between 0 to 50 is considered good.
Earlier in November, parts of Lahore had a reading above 1,900, marking a record high.
No smog was seen in Punjab region on 10 October 2024.
Pic: NASA Worldview
IQAir also reported on Tuesday that the concentration of PM2.5 – microparticles that enter the bloodstream through the lungs and can cause cancer – in Lahore was more than 50 times above recommended guidelines.
The city in eastern Pakistan is often ranked as one of the worst places in the world for air pollution.
More than 40,000 people have been treated for respiratory ailments due to the smog.
Pic: Reuters
Regional authorities have banned most outdoor activities, ordered shops to close early, and closed schools and public spaces until 17 November in response to the air pollution.
Health officials said more than 40,000 people have already been treated for respiratory ailments, while hospitals in the region have reported an unprecedented rise in patients with eye and throat irritation and pink eye disease.
Parts of Lahore had an air quality index above 1,900 earlier in November, marking a record high.
Pic: Reuters
It comes as a UN agency warned the health of 11 million children in the Punjab region is at risk if efforts aren’t made to tackle the toxic smog.
Abdullah Fadil, UNICEF’s representative in the country, said in a statement: “Prior to these record-breaking levels of air pollution, about 12% of deaths in children under five in Pakistan were due to air pollution.
“The impact of this year’s extraordinary smog will take time to assess, but we know that doubling and tripling the amount of pollution in the air will have devastating effects, particularly on children and pregnant women.”
Several South Asian countries are engulfed by smog each winter as cold air traps dust, emissions and smoke from farm fires.
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Parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh were forced to close schools and businesses last November over air pollution.
A month later, artificial rain was used in Lahore to tackle hazardous smog for the first time.
Thirty-five people have been killed and another 43 injured after a motorist deliberately drove his car into people exercising at a sports centre in the Chinese city of Zhuhai, police said.
A 62-year-old man, identified only by his family name of Fan, was detained at the centre late on Monday.
He was discovered in the car with a knife and wounds to his neck that were thought to be self-inflicted, according to a police statement.
Fan was reported to be unconscious and receiving medical care.
A motive has not been confirmed but police said a preliminary investigation found he was unhappy with the split of financial assets in his divorce.
Officers said a “number of” pedestrians were knocked down in the incident which took place on the eve of of an annual People’s Liberation Army exhibition in the southern Chinese city.
China’s president Xi Jinping has called for “all-out efforts” to treat those injured in the disaster, the country’s state media has said.
Mr Xi also said the perpetrator should be punished in “accordance with the law”.
Meanwhile, one of the four hospitals that took in casualties said it had more than 20 injured, state media reported.
Pic: Kyodo/AP
Video shared on social media showed emergency services performing CPR on people at the scene, as others were told to leave the area.
Some were shared by news blogger and dissident Li Ying, who is better known on X as Teacher Li. His account posts daily news based on user submissions.
The clips showed dozens of people lying on the sports centre’s running track, with a woman in one saying: “My foot is broken.”
Pic: Kyodo/AP
By Tuesday morning, searches for the incident were heavily censored on Chinese social media platforms.
A search on Weibo for the sports centre only turned up a few posts, with only a couple referring to the fact that something had happened, without pictures or details.
Articles by Chinese media about the incident from Monday night were taken down.
Pic: Kyodo/AP
Chinese internet censors take extra care to check social media ahead of and during major events, such as the meeting of the National People’s Congress, where the government announces its major policy initiatives for the coming year.
The sports centre for the city district of Xiangzhou regularly attracts hundreds of residents, where they can run on the track field, play soccer and take part in social dances. Following the incident, the centre announced that it would be closed until further notice.
China has seen a number of attacks in which suspects appear to target random people such as schoolchildren.
In October, a 50-year-old man was detained after he allegedly used a knife to attack children at a school in Beijing. Five people were injured.
In September, three people were killed in a knife attack in a Shanghai supermarket.
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