Lego, fossil fuels and the COP28 climate deal: What toy bricks tell us about the immense difficulties of going green
The last-minute deal agreed at the COP28 summit in Dubai to move away from fossil fuels is being heralded as a major breakthrough.
But while it’s the first time these annual climate negotiations have agreed to reduce our reliance on coal, oil and gas, it stops short of what many campaigners had been demanding: a promise to phase out fossil fuel use altogether.
Which raises a question: Why?
Why couldn’t the meeting go one step further and promise to leave all fossil fuels in the ground?
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Applause for ‘historic’ COP28 deal
Perhaps the best answer begins somewhere unexpected: with a piece of Lego.
Most Lego bricks are made of a plastic called Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene, or ABS for short. It’s a tough thermoplastic, which is to say one of those plastics you can melt down and form back into other shapes again, and it’s brilliant at doing all the things Lego bricks need to do.
It’s incredibly durable. It can be moulded precisely, with tolerances of within four microns, meaning one brick fits neatly into another.
Finally, it has pretty unbeatable “clutch power”, as the company calls it: the bricks stick together robustly but are also pretty easy to pull apart.
But ABS is made, like nearly all plastics, out of chemicals derived from oil and gas.
A few years ago Lego committed to trying to make its blocks not directly from oil but from other feedstocks.
After much investigation it experimented with using old plastic bottles – or recycled polyethylene terephthalate (RPET), to use the technical term.
But, try as it might, it struggled to make this RPET work as well as ABS. The only way to make it perform as well as the old brick – the rigidity, the accuracy, the “clutch” – was to process it and reprocess it, adding a host of additional materials along the way.
A few months ago, it revealed that in practical terms those efforts – thus far – had failed. Ironically enough, it took more energy to turn those recycled bottles into bricks than it did to take oil and turn it into bricks.
Fossil fuels are hard to beat
Now, it’s still relatively early days. But Lego’s efforts are a pretty good reminder of something pretty profound. Like it or not, fossil fuels are remarkably good at what they do.
We use them in vast quantities because they are a brilliant source of energy and a brilliant source of chemicals.
Coal, demonised as it may be these days, isn’t just good at firing up power stations; it’s also nearly unbeatable (in its coked form) at helping you turn certain ores into metals.
The good news – from a carbon cutting perspective – is that we’re getting better and better at finding alternatives to most of the things fossil fuels do.
Electric cars are in many ways better than the petrol cars they’re replacing. Wind and solar panels are very good at generating electricity – though we’re still working on reliable, affordable and green ways to back up the grid when the wind’s not blowing.
But for certain purposes – purposes far more serious than some toy building blocks – it’s still very hard to beat fossil fuels.
We still rely on natural gas for most of the world’s nitrogen fertiliser production, without which half of the world would starve.
We still have yet to find a way of mass producing concrete without spewing a lot of carbon dioxide into the air. And making plastics without oil is, as Lego learnt to its cost, tricky, to say the least.
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Now, there are very smart people working on all of the above and there are really promising green candidates for many of these tricky fossil fuel products.
But many remain at the prototype stage, a very long way from being able to compete on a level playing field with their industrial counterparts.
The upshot is that even the most ambitious plans for how we might reduce global carbon emissions still assume we’ll be using fossil fuels come 2050 – and potentially into the foreseeable future beyond that too.
Even optimistic plans admit we’ll need some fossil fuels
Take the International Energy Agency (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 plan.
This framework has all the green credentials – indeed it’s often cited approvingly by organisations like Just Stop Oil, since its models suggest there’s no need for further oil and gas exploration.
But even this plan still assumes we’ll be getting more than a fifth of our energy from fossil fuels (mostly oil and gas) come 2050.
Now it’s worth saying, about a third of those 2050-vintage fossil fuels are not being burnt, but are instead being turned into products like plastics (including Lego bricks, if they haven’t cracked it by then).
Which is an important distinction because they won’t be responsible for the carbon emissions we’re really concerned with.
But that still leaves a lot of fossil fuels being burnt – a lot of them in the engines of planes (sustainable aviation fuel will only get us so far, thinks the IEA) and some to do all those other tricky things like making fertilisers and so on.
And here’s the key thing, the thing one can’t emphasise enough: this is not a conservative plan. This is about the most optimistic plan you’ll find among policymakers today (that doesn’t involve drastic changes in living standards).
But even this plan for net zero depends on a large chunk of fossil fuels being burnt.
Some of the emissions, reckons the IEA, can be captured and squirrelled away underground (“carbon capture and storage” or CCS as it’s called) – though it’s worth saying CCS is one of those technologies that’s still barely been carried out at large scale.
But even after you subtract that, there’s still a not unsubstantial amount of unabated fossil fuel burning going on.
Even in 2050. Even in the most optimistic of all likely pathways.
And here’s the other thing you need to know. We’re already falling far short of that pathway.
Right now our oil production is way, way above where that IEA pathway said it should be.
Reasons for hope
Global carbon emissions are now so far beyond where they should be heading if we wanted to keep global warming below the 1.5C threshold most campaigners are pushing for.
Indeed, a glance at the statistics suggests that that goal is now incredibly unlikely – some would say impossible.
Yet for all of this, there’s plenty of reasons for hope.
Overall emissions may be higher than we’d like them to be, but by the same token they’re considerably lower than they seemed to be heading back in 2015.
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Carbon emissions: The global picture
Thanks to technologies like wind turbines, batteries and solar panels, the world is getting better at generating clean energy quicker than expected.
The very scariest climate outcomes look much less likely today than they did a few years ago – according to the IPCC’s own analysis.
But the more we wrestle with the difficulties of the energy transition, the clearer it is how enormous the challenge ahead remains. And a forensic look at that challenge underlines why there’s a very big difference between pledging to “phase down” and to “phase OUT” fossil fuels.
The former is doable – and it’s pretty extraordinary it’s taken this long for COP ministers to commit to it.
Achieving the latter by 2050 while maintaining today’s levels of living standards is close to inconceivable.
World
Zelenskyy ready to accept ceasefire deal – as US to resume intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to accept a ceasefire deal – as the US says it has immediately resumed intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine.
In a post on Telegram after US and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia, Mr Zelenskyy said “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals” – and that Kyiv “accepts” the US proposal of a full 30-day ceasefire with Russia.
Ukraine war latest: Ball now in Russia’s court, US says
“I want to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” he said.
“Today, in the conversation, the American side proposed to take the first step immediately and try to establish a full ceasefire for 30 days, not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line.
“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, and we are ready to take this step.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he is ready to accept the US’ 30-day ceasefire proposal. Pic: Saudi Press Agency / Reuters
‘Ukraine is ready for peace’
The Ukrainian president then said the US “must convince Russia to do this” and that “if the Russians agree – that’s when the silence will work”.
He added: “An important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support.
“Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it.
“The time has come for the full truth. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, in a joint statement with Kyiv following nine-hour-long talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said it will immediately lift the pause on intelligence-sharing and military aid.
A Ukrainian source told Sky News earlier this month that the US had stopped sharing all intelligence with Kyiv.
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Analysis: A pause in aid for Ukraine
‘Ball is now in Russia’s court’
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, also told reporters that “the ball is now in Russia’s court” after meeting with the Ukrainian delegation.
After the positive talks, Mr Rubio said “we’re going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.
“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”
‘The ball is now in Russia’s court’ to agree to a ceasefire, Marco Rubio (R) said. Pic: Reuters
He then said that while no deadline has been set, he hopes a deal can be reached “as soon as possible” and that “this is serious stuff, this is not Mean Girls, this is not some episode of some television show”.
“The number one goodwill gesture we could see from the Russians is to see the Ukrainian offer and reciprocate it with a yes,” Mr Rubio added.
National security adviser Mike also said added it is “very clear” that Kyiv shares Donald Trump’s vision for peace and says “they share his determination to end the fighting”.
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Over in the US, Mr Trump said that officials will meet with Russia either today or tomorrow and confirmed he would invite Mr Zelenskyy back to the White House.
“We want to get the Ukraine war over with,” the US president said, before saying he hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.
He also told reporters he thinks he will talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week – but warned “it takes two to tango”.
Donald Trump said ‘we want to get the Ukraine war over with’. Pic: Reuters
Last month, Mr Trump accused Mr Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War Three” in an Oval Office meeting.
US vice president JD Vance told the Ukrainian president “you should be thanking” Mr Trump “for trying to bring an end to this conflict,” sparking a tense 10-minute back-and-forth.
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From February: What happened when Trump met Zelenskyy?
A press conference with the two leaders and the signing of an agreement was then cancelled.
World
Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Saudi Arabia ahead of US-Ukraine meeting – as Marco Rubio says Kyiv should be ‘prepared to do difficult things’
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Saudi Arabia ahead of his team having talks with America’s top diplomat on Tuesday.
Mr Zelenskyy will not be at the meeting with US secretary of state Marco Rubio, but Mr Zelenskyy’s team will try to improve relations following his disastrous 28 February visit to Washington, which descended into an Oval Office argument with President Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance.
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Mr Zelenskyy with Prince Saud bin Mishaal, and Saudi commerce minister Majid bin Abdullah al Qasabi. Pic: AP
Mr Zelenskyy is due to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman later on Monday, after the end of the daily fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio is also in Jeddah. He is not due to meet Mr Zelenskyy – but he held talks with Prince Mohammed to discuss Yemen and threats to ships from Houthis, Syria, and the reconstruction of Gaza.
During talks on Tuesday the Ukrainian team will try to convince the US to restore military aid and intelligence that had helped Kyiv since Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Speaking to reporters while travelling to Jeddah, Mr Rubio said if Ukraine and the US reach an understanding acceptable to Mr Trump, that could accelerate his administration’s push to peace talks.
“What we want to know is, are they interested [in] entering some sort of peace conversation and general outlines of the kinds of things they could consider, recognising that it has been a costly and bloody war for the Ukrainians,” Mr Rubio said.
“They have suffered greatly and their people have suffered greatly. And it’s hard in the aftermath of something like that to even talk about concessions, but that’s the only way this is going to end and prevent more suffering.”
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‘We want Ukraine to be serious’ about peace
He said: “I’m not going to set any conditions on what they have to or need to do. I think we want to listen to see how far they’re willing to go and then compare that to what the Russians want and see how far apart we truly are.”
He added: “The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things, like the Russians are going to have to do difficult things to end this conflict.”
Meanwhile, British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Mr Trump on Monday ahead of the US-Ukraine meeting.
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A Downing Street readout of the call said that Sir Keir told the president that “UK officials had been speaking to Ukraine officials over the weekend and they remain committed to a lasting peace”.
“The prime minister said he hoped there would be a positive outcome to the talks that would enable US aid and intelligence sharing to be restarted,” the statement said.
“The two leaders also spoke about the economic deal they had discussed at the White House and the prime minister welcomed the detailed conversations that had already happened to move this forward. Both leaders agreed to stay in touch.”
The European Union agreed last week to boost the continent’s defences and free up hundreds of billions of euros for security in response to the Trump administration’s shift in policy towards Ukraine.
A US intelligence official said a pause on sharing US intelligence that can be used for offensive purposes by Ukrainian forces remains in effect.
The official suggested that progress could be made towards reinstating intelligence sharing with Ukraine during the Saudi talks.
Syria’s interim government has signed a deal with the Kurdish-led authority that controls the country’s oil-rich northeast.
The agreement – which includes a ceasefire and the merging of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) there into the Syrian army – will bring most of the nation under the control of the government.
The government is currently led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which helped to topple president Bashar al Assad in December.
Syria’s interim president Ahmad al Sharaa (R) shakes hands with Mazloum Abdi, the commander of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Pic: AP
Recent clashes have seen more than 1,000 people killed amid violence between government supporters and those thought to be loyal to the ousted leader.
On Monday, the deal was signed by interim president Ahmad al Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the US-backed SDF.
The deal – to be implemented by the end of the year – would bring all border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, airports and oil fields in the northeast under the central government’s control.
Prisons, where about 9,000 suspected members of the Islamic State group are being held, are also expected to come under government control.
Syria’s Kurds will gain their “constitutional rights” including using and teaching their language, which were banned for decades under Mr Assad.
Hundreds of thousands of Kurds who were displaced during Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war will return to their homes.
The deal will also allow all Syrians to be part of the political process, no matter their religion or ethnicity.
Clashes between government supporters and those loyal to Bashar al Assad have seen more than 1,000 people killed. Pic: AP
A coffin carrying the body of Nawaf Khalil Baytar, who was killed during the recent wave of violence. Pic: AP
Syria’s new rulers are struggling to exert their authority across the country and reach political settlements with other minority communities, notably the Druze in southern Syria.
Earlier in the day, the government announced the end of the military operation against insurgents loyal to Mr Assad and his family in the worst fighting since the end of the civil war.
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Surge of violence in Syria explained
The defence ministry’s announcement came after a surprise attack by gunmen from the Alawite community on a police patrol near the port city of Latakia on Thursday spiralled into widespread clashes across Syria’s coastal region.
The Assad family are Alawites.
Pic: AP
Pic: AP
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Defence ministry spokesperson Colonel Abdel-Ghani said security forces will continue searching for sleeper cells and remnants of the insurgency of former government loyalists.
Though the government’s counter-offensive was able to mostly contain the insurgency, footage surfaced of what appeared to be retaliatory attacks targeting the broader minority Alawite community, an offshoot of Shia Islam whose adherents live mainly in the western coastal region.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitoring group, said 1,130 people were killed in the clashes, including 830 civilians.
The interim president said the retaliatory attacks against Alawite civilians and mistreatment of prisoners were isolated incidents, and vowed to crack down on the perpetrators as he formed a committee to investigate.
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