What does the COP28 deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels actually mean?
The latest UN climate change conference in Dubai has seen almost 200 countries commit to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for the first time.
COP28 negotiators have described it as a “historic” and a “landmark” deal for global efforts to reach net zero by 2050.
But many climate scientists are questioning the impact it will have, with others sceptical about the COP process in general.
Here Sky News looks at what the deal means globally, for the UK and for you.
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COP28 president ‘proud’ of historic deal
Fossil fuels, net zero and carbon capture
Despite being widely used, some of the key terms used in COP agreements such as the one struck in Dubai can feel ambiguous.
• Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, form naturally from dead plants and animals in the Earth’s crust. They contain hydrocarbon and can be extracted and burned as fuel for heat and electricity.
• Fossil fuel subsidies are defined as any action by a government to lower the cost of fossil fuel production or prices for energy consumers. In 2022 the International Monetary Fund estimated they were worth 7.1% of global GDP, the equivalent of $7trn (£5.6trn).
• Net zero is achieved when global greenhouse emissions balance out what we remove from the atmosphere. It’s not the same as ‘carbon neutral’, a label often used by businesses to imply a concerted reduction in carbon emissions and offsetting those they do produce.
• Carbon capture uses technology to trap carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and store it underground to avoid any harmful effect to the environment.
• ‘Unabated fossil fuels’ refer to those where no attempt has been made to reduce their emissions through techniques such as carbon capture and storage.
What does ‘transitioning away’ mean – aren’t we doing it already?
There was agonising debate over the phrasing of the agreement’s clause on fossil fuels, with “transitioning away” eventually chosen over “phase out” or “phase down”.
It means that renewable energy will increase and be gradually substituted for fossil fuels across all global energy systems, according to Professor David Reay, expert in carbon management at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the Just Transition Commission.
He tells Sky News that unlike “phase out” there is no determined end point to a “transition”, with the language chosen to cater for countries still heavily reliant on fossil fuels without the economic means to adapt as quickly as others.
Professor Ilan Kelman, an expert in disasters and health at University College London, adds that most countries, including the UK and the US, have been “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for decades.
“This is simply the international community saying we agree that we are transitioning and will continue to transition.
“But what does it mean? Not a lot unless we act on it. It’s just legal terminology. We’ve had similar wording in agreements before that haven’t been acted on.”
At COP26 in Glasgow, “phase out” was used for a clause on coal, but this year it has arguably been diluted to “phase down” and “unabated coal”, which implies coal production can continue.
Professor Kelman adds: “It’s really up to governments, companies, non-profits and individuals to enact it and ensure they go forward with it.”
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Who is the COP president?
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Can we phase out fossil fuels?
Is COP legally binding?
COP places no legal obligation on its signatories to meet the terms of its agreements.
In response, countries are expected to update their own climate change legislation and ‘nationally determined contributions (NDCs)’, drawn up as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, accordingly.
Professor Reay says this year’s COP agreement is “really important to set the stage” as new NDCs are currently being devised ahead of the next set of targets in 2025.
“By the time we get to COP in Brazil in 2025, we’ve got a possibility of a major closing of the gap in terms of what nations are committing to do and how that adds up to limiting warming close to 1.5C,” he says.
Professor Kelman is more sceptical, saying the lack of accountability and enforcement for countries who fall behind on their promises makes the process “meaningless”.
What does it mean for me?
If the near-200 countries signed up to COP28 honour the idea of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, fewer companies are likely to invest in them, Professor Reay says.
This means that at a consumer level, renewable alternatives like electric cars and heat pumps will become more commonplace – making it easier for us to make green choices, he adds.
But Professor Kelman argues that while COP reinforces the need to reduce our electricity consumption, it is “up to governments local through to national to enact the legislation so people are not hurt” by climate initiatives.
“COP processes and these agreements don’t really have much of an impact on individuals,” he says.
“But as individuals, if we want cheaper electricity, to breathe cleaner air, and for our taxes not to go towards subsidising fossil fuels we have to tell our politicians we want those things.”
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Sunak says North Sea plans are ‘better for climate’
How does the UK stand?
The UK Climate Change Act was passed in 2008 and has been updated regularly by successive governments according to global warming estimates and COP agreements.
Like most countries, it has always had the goal of contributing to net zero by 2050.
But earlier this year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was heavily criticised for delaying the ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles, weakening targets to phase out gas boilers, and issuing new gas and oil drilling licences in the North Sea.
While Professor Kelman describes the original UK climate legislation as “world leading”, he says the new North Sea licences are the “antithesis” of climate targets and the transition to a green economy.
Professor Reay chairs the Just Transition Commission, which advocates for progressive long-term sustainability strategies that do not come at a cost to individuals.
He warns that the UK government is using the concept of a ‘just transition’ as an “excuse to go slower on climate action”.
“We’re losing climate leadership not just morally, but it will also damage us economically if we carry on this line of essentially hiding from climate action,” he says.
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Climate activist says COP has given her a ‘flower for her grave’
Is COP28 strong enough for net zero by 2050?
Net zero targets depend first on whether countries adhere to the agreement, but also on how net zero is defined and calculated, Professor Kelman says.
“There are climate experts who say that net zero is so ambiguous and vague that it doesn’t mean much.
“So there’s a chance that countries might not meet their target or they’ll calculate it in such a way that doesn’t help in extensively reducing all greenhouse gases.”
But although we are “way off” the Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5C by the end of the century – instead on track for 3C – Professor Reay still believes COP28 “gets us closer” to net zero 2050 goals.
“This will provide a context for nations to ramp up their ambitions and move us closer,” he adds.
Headlights illuminate a group of soldiers smoking and drinking steaming cups of coffee on the side of a road in northeastern Ukraine.
A fine sleet on another freezing night falls on the silhouetted barrel of a Soviet-era anti-aircraft gun mounted on an ancient, battered lorry.
These are the men of a mobile air defence unit, preparing for another night of tracking and attempting to shoot out of the skies the Russian drones heading for cities and power plants across Ukraine.
We joined the units over 48 hours in the southern sector of the city of Sumy, near the border with Russia.
Captain Serhii, of the 117th Brigade, is a commander in charge of 160 of these men in eight mobile units protecting this area of northeastern Ukraine.
Commander Serhii looking for drones on his scanner
We met up with him in an empty car park next to a high-rise apartment block in Sumy.
Sitting in his 4×4 he squinted in concentration as his scanner showed a handful of drones on a flight path heading towards us from Russia.
Air raid sirens blared in the background.
He signalled for us to follow, and he sped off into the night weaving through checkpoints along empty, darkened country roads.
He had said the drone was near, but we were confused when he suddenly pulled off the road and jumped out of his cab.
Within moments the skies were lit up by mobile anti-aircraft batteries firing into the sky.
Tracers from the bullets flew over our heads and above us we could hear the monotonous sound of the drone as it passed overhead.
Searchlights reflected off a dank, dense fog that had enveloped the countryside criss-crossed in the sky as the units tried to spot the drone.
They didn’t spot or hit the drone, and slowly the sound of its motors grew dimmer and dimmer until there was silence.
“You can see the current weather conditions, it’s foggy, so we’re basically working off sound alone, as thermal imaging and other devices can’t pick them up,” Captain Serhii told me.
“A spotlight is completely pointless, the speed of these drones isn’t particularly high, so technically, we could hit them, but the weather makes it impossible,” he added.
Every night across Ukraine the tarpaulin covers are pulled off these Soviet-era anti-aircraft guns and prepared for action.
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On battered trucks they rumble into the night to take up defensive positions.
These old guns are the country’s main defence against an increasing number of drone attacks from Russia.
The units here say they mostly encounter two types of drones which are usually deployed at the same time: Gerberas and Shaheds.
Gerberas do not carry an explosive payload but instead are designed to confuse Ukraine’s air defence, while the Iranian-supplied Shahed drones carry explosives with pre-programmed targets.
One of the soldiers, Volodymyr, tracks the drones on a handheld tablet. All the men wait, watch the screen, and listen.
“They generally fly between 200-300m up to 3km,” Volodymyr tells me.
“If they’re flying lower than 300m above sea level, the radar won’t pick them up.”
The men start to gather around their anti-air battery unit as a drone flies closer towards our location.
Stuart Ramsay and Volodymyr
The gunner then jumps onto the truck and searches for the target on a radar attached to his weapon.
He will fire when it’s within a 10km range of his position.
The night-time silence in the middle of the field is suddenly shattered by the deafening sound of firing as the gunner goes for the drone.
Then in the fields all around us other units join the attack – it’s so dark we had no idea they were even there.
It’s absolutely relentless.
Captain Serhii tells me their critical job would be made easier with more sophisticated weapons like the American-made Patriot system.
“We need a stronger, more automated air defence system that operates independently of human involvement,” he said.
“Winter is approaching, and our guys who are on duty 24/7 will face incredibly tough conditions, they aren’t made of steel, so having an automated system would be ideal.”
Anti-aircraft unit firing at drones from their truck
He believes any political negotiations with Russia will just end badly for Ukraine.
“A frozen conflict is typically just a temporary pause, and you can’t trust [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, because any agreement made will likely work in Russia’s favour,” he told me.
“They’ll stockpile resources, more Shaheds, rockets, soldiers, even North Koreans, and then they’ll return, and they’ll come back stronger than they did in 2022.”
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We join another mobile unit, this time by the side of an empty road as they track another Iranian Shahed drone.
It’s flying in our direction and they’re waiting to see if it will come into range.
It does, and they too attack – firing powerful rounds at their target.
The red, orange, and yellow flashes of colour as the weapon fires light up an otherwise pitch-black sky.
In the 48-hour period we spent with the anti-aircraft units in this part of the Sumy region, Russia deployed a record number of drones into Ukraine.
Ukraine, for its part, deployed a record number of drones against Russia too, but the number is dwarfed by the Russian assault.
Night after freezing night these Ukrainian defenders, hundreds of them around this city, will man these guns.
The last line of defence – not good, but better than nothing.
World
Pakistan: Satellite images show smog over Punjab visible from space – as record levels of air pollution recorded
Satellite images show that smog in Pakistan can be seen from space, as the country battles record levels of air pollution.
Images from NASA Worldview show the east of the country cloaked in a toxic haze, with smog also reaching into India’s northern regions and New Dehli.
Lahore, the capital of Pakistan’s Punjab region and home to 14 million people, had an air quality index of more than 400 on Tuesday morning, according to IQAir, which tracks global air quality.
Any reading above 300 is considered hazardous – anything between 0 to 50 is considered good.
Earlier in November, parts of Lahore had a reading above 1,900, marking a record high.
No smog was seen in Punjab region on 10 October 2024.
Pic: NASA Worldview
IQAir also reported on Tuesday that the concentration of PM2.5 – microparticles that enter the bloodstream through the lungs and can cause cancer – in Lahore was more than 50 times above recommended guidelines.
The city in eastern Pakistan is often ranked as one of the worst places in the world for air pollution.
More than 40,000 people have been treated for respiratory ailments due to the smog.
Pic: Reuters
Regional authorities have banned most outdoor activities, ordered shops to close early, and closed schools and public spaces until 17 November in response to the air pollution.
Health officials said more than 40,000 people have already been treated for respiratory ailments, while hospitals in the region have reported an unprecedented rise in patients with eye and throat irritation and pink eye disease.
Parts of Lahore had an air quality index above 1,900 earlier in November, marking a record high.
Pic: Reuters
It comes as a UN agency warned the health of 11 million children in the Punjab region is at risk if efforts aren’t made to tackle the toxic smog.
Abdullah Fadil, UNICEF’s representative in the country, said in a statement: “Prior to these record-breaking levels of air pollution, about 12% of deaths in children under five in Pakistan were due to air pollution.
“The impact of this year’s extraordinary smog will take time to assess, but we know that doubling and tripling the amount of pollution in the air will have devastating effects, particularly on children and pregnant women.”
Several South Asian countries are engulfed by smog each winter as cold air traps dust, emissions and smoke from farm fires.
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Parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh were forced to close schools and businesses last November over air pollution.
A month later, artificial rain was used in Lahore to tackle hazardous smog for the first time.
Thirty-five people have been killed and another 43 injured after a motorist deliberately drove his car into people exercising at a sports centre in the Chinese city of Zhuhai, police said.
A 62-year-old man, identified only by his family name of Fan, was detained at the centre late on Monday.
He was discovered in the car with a knife and wounds to his neck that were thought to be self-inflicted, according to a police statement.
Fan was reported to be unconscious and receiving medical care.
A motive has not been confirmed but police said a preliminary investigation found he was unhappy with the split of financial assets in his divorce.
Officers said a “number of” pedestrians were knocked down in the incident which took place on the eve of of an annual People’s Liberation Army exhibition in the southern Chinese city.
China’s president Xi Jinping has called for “all-out efforts” to treat those injured in the disaster, the country’s state media has said.
Mr Xi also said the perpetrator should be punished in “accordance with the law”.
Meanwhile, one of the four hospitals that took in casualties said it had more than 20 injured, state media reported.
Pic: Kyodo/AP
Video shared on social media showed emergency services performing CPR on people at the scene, as others were told to leave the area.
Some were shared by news blogger and dissident Li Ying, who is better known on X as Teacher Li. His account posts daily news based on user submissions.
The clips showed dozens of people lying on the sports centre’s running track, with a woman in one saying: “My foot is broken.”
Pic: Kyodo/AP
By Tuesday morning, searches for the incident were heavily censored on Chinese social media platforms.
A search on Weibo for the sports centre only turned up a few posts, with only a couple referring to the fact that something had happened, without pictures or details.
Articles by Chinese media about the incident from Monday night were taken down.
Pic: Kyodo/AP
Chinese internet censors take extra care to check social media ahead of and during major events, such as the meeting of the National People’s Congress, where the government announces its major policy initiatives for the coming year.
The sports centre for the city district of Xiangzhou regularly attracts hundreds of residents, where they can run on the track field, play soccer and take part in social dances. Following the incident, the centre announced that it would be closed until further notice.
China has seen a number of attacks in which suspects appear to target random people such as schoolchildren.
In October, a 50-year-old man was detained after he allegedly used a knife to attack children at a school in Beijing. Five people were injured.
In September, three people were killed in a knife attack in a Shanghai supermarket.
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