What does the COP28 deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels actually mean?
The latest UN climate change conference in Dubai has seen almost 200 countries commit to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for the first time.
COP28 negotiators have described it as a “historic” and a “landmark” deal for global efforts to reach net zero by 2050.
But many climate scientists are questioning the impact it will have, with others sceptical about the COP process in general.
Here Sky News looks at what the deal means globally, for the UK and for you.
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COP28 president ‘proud’ of historic deal
Fossil fuels, net zero and carbon capture
Despite being widely used, some of the key terms used in COP agreements such as the one struck in Dubai can feel ambiguous.
• Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, form naturally from dead plants and animals in the Earth’s crust. They contain hydrocarbon and can be extracted and burned as fuel for heat and electricity.
• Fossil fuel subsidies are defined as any action by a government to lower the cost of fossil fuel production or prices for energy consumers. In 2022 the International Monetary Fund estimated they were worth 7.1% of global GDP, the equivalent of $7trn (£5.6trn).
• Net zero is achieved when global greenhouse emissions balance out what we remove from the atmosphere. It’s not the same as ‘carbon neutral’, a label often used by businesses to imply a concerted reduction in carbon emissions and offsetting those they do produce.
• Carbon capture uses technology to trap carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and store it underground to avoid any harmful effect to the environment.
• ‘Unabated fossil fuels’ refer to those where no attempt has been made to reduce their emissions through techniques such as carbon capture and storage.
What does ‘transitioning away’ mean – aren’t we doing it already?
There was agonising debate over the phrasing of the agreement’s clause on fossil fuels, with “transitioning away” eventually chosen over “phase out” or “phase down”.
It means that renewable energy will increase and be gradually substituted for fossil fuels across all global energy systems, according to Professor David Reay, expert in carbon management at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the Just Transition Commission.
He tells Sky News that unlike “phase out” there is no determined end point to a “transition”, with the language chosen to cater for countries still heavily reliant on fossil fuels without the economic means to adapt as quickly as others.
Professor Ilan Kelman, an expert in disasters and health at University College London, adds that most countries, including the UK and the US, have been “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for decades.
“This is simply the international community saying we agree that we are transitioning and will continue to transition.
“But what does it mean? Not a lot unless we act on it. It’s just legal terminology. We’ve had similar wording in agreements before that haven’t been acted on.”
At COP26 in Glasgow, “phase out” was used for a clause on coal, but this year it has arguably been diluted to “phase down” and “unabated coal”, which implies coal production can continue.
Professor Kelman adds: “It’s really up to governments, companies, non-profits and individuals to enact it and ensure they go forward with it.”
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Can we phase out fossil fuels?
Is COP legally binding?
COP places no legal obligation on its signatories to meet the terms of its agreements.
In response, countries are expected to update their own climate change legislation and ‘nationally determined contributions (NDCs)’, drawn up as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, accordingly.
Professor Reay says this year’s COP agreement is “really important to set the stage” as new NDCs are currently being devised ahead of the next set of targets in 2025.
“By the time we get to COP in Brazil in 2025, we’ve got a possibility of a major closing of the gap in terms of what nations are committing to do and how that adds up to limiting warming close to 1.5C,” he says.
Professor Kelman is more sceptical, saying the lack of accountability and enforcement for countries who fall behind on their promises makes the process “meaningless”.
What does it mean for me?
If the near-200 countries signed up to COP28 honour the idea of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, fewer companies are likely to invest in them, Professor Reay says.
This means that at a consumer level, renewable alternatives like electric cars and heat pumps will become more commonplace – making it easier for us to make green choices, he adds.
But Professor Kelman argues that while COP reinforces the need to reduce our electricity consumption, it is “up to governments local through to national to enact the legislation so people are not hurt” by climate initiatives.
“COP processes and these agreements don’t really have much of an impact on individuals,” he says.
“But as individuals, if we want cheaper electricity, to breathe cleaner air, and for our taxes not to go towards subsidising fossil fuels we have to tell our politicians we want those things.”
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Sunak says North Sea plans are ‘better for climate’
How does the UK stand?
The UK Climate Change Act was passed in 2008 and has been updated regularly by successive governments according to global warming estimates and COP agreements.
Like most countries, it has always had the goal of contributing to net zero by 2050.
But earlier this year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was heavily criticised for delaying the ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles, weakening targets to phase out gas boilers, and issuing new gas and oil drilling licences in the North Sea.
While Professor Kelman describes the original UK climate legislation as “world leading”, he says the new North Sea licences are the “antithesis” of climate targets and the transition to a green economy.
Professor Reay chairs the Just Transition Commission, which advocates for progressive long-term sustainability strategies that do not come at a cost to individuals.
He warns that the UK government is using the concept of a ‘just transition’ as an “excuse to go slower on climate action”.
“We’re losing climate leadership not just morally, but it will also damage us economically if we carry on this line of essentially hiding from climate action,” he says.
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Is COP28 strong enough for net zero by 2050?
Net zero targets depend first on whether countries adhere to the agreement, but also on how net zero is defined and calculated, Professor Kelman says.
“There are climate experts who say that net zero is so ambiguous and vague that it doesn’t mean much.
“So there’s a chance that countries might not meet their target or they’ll calculate it in such a way that doesn’t help in extensively reducing all greenhouse gases.”
But although we are “way off” the Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5C by the end of the century – instead on track for 3C – Professor Reay still believes COP28 “gets us closer” to net zero 2050 goals.
“This will provide a context for nations to ramp up their ambitions and move us closer,” he adds.
World
CCTV footage reveals shocking moment 80-year-old is shot in IDF raid as UN expert says it could be ‘war crime’
On 19 December, 80-year-old Palestinian grandmother Halima Abu Leil was shot in an Israel Defence Forces (IDF) raid on her neighbourhood in Balata refugee camp in Nablus, West Bank.
Two days later, Halima’s children told Sky News their mother was shot six times by Israeli special forces on her way to buy groceries. She died soon after.
Warning this piece includes an image from CCTV of the moment Halima Abu Leil was shot.
“They could see she is an elderly lady but they shot her six times – in her leg, in her chest. When she was first shot in her legs, she knelt on the ground,” her daughter said.
Halima’s daughter
Newly released grainy CCTV footage shows the moment she was shot and reveals that a van marked as an ambulance was used during the surprise IDF raid.
Halima Abu Leil’s family want the footage to be seen.
Sky News’ Data & Forensics unit has analysed the CCTV and geolocated the street where the video was filmed. It is the exact location Halima’s son told us she “fell to her knees” as she was shot.
READ MORE: Grandmother shot six times by IDF during raid, son says
In the video, we see Halima turn into the street.
Three men are also walking down the street. There is no visible contact between them and Halima. Based on our analysis of their silhouettes, the figure in the middle appears to be holding a weapon. They are likely to be neighbourhood militants.
The three men veer to the right, moving into a sunny area. One takes a seat on some stairs, while the other two stand. They join someone sitting there already.
A few yards away, Halima stops in the middle of the street to speak to another woman with a shopping trolley.
An ambulance pulls into vision, separating the two women, and drives slowly down the street. A white van pulls in behind the medical vehicle.
A few moments later, the passenger door of the white van opens and a faint cloud of smoke is visible, suggesting that a gunshot is fired.
This is the moment Halima falls to her knees.
The men, some of them armed, scatter to the right and left into alleyways along with other people in the street.
A detailed analysis of the footage suggests that visible clouds of smoke on the walls are the result of multiple shots. The footage and imagery we gathered from the site of the killing shows bullet holes in the building next to where Halima was standing.
The exact location Halima Abu Leil was shot in Balata Refugee Camp
The woman she was speaking to moments earlier takes cover in a doorway.
At the same time, figures who appear to be Israeli military forces exit the ambulance in the foreground. They are equipped with helmets, backpacks, rifles, and other gear.
Armed figures can also be seen leaving the white van in the background. They are seen aiming their weapons down the street.
Halima appears to get hit again and collapses to the floor. The men likely to be neighbourhood militants are not visibly present in the street when this happens.
At the time of our previous report, the IDF said they had conducted “counterterrorism activity” in Balata camp the morning Halima was killed.
We approached the IDF about the CCTV footage and the use of a medical vehicle to conduct their operation.
This was its response: “The IDF is committed to and operates in accordance with international law. The mentioned incident is under review. The review will examine the use of the vehicle shown in the video and the claims of harm to uninvolved individuals during the exchange of fire between the terrorists and our forces.”
The use of a marked medical vehicle for a security operation could be a contravention of the Geneva Convention and a war crime – as well as Halima’s killing.
The United Nations Special Rapporteur on occupied Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese watched the CCTV video and told Sky News she was shocked but not surprised.
She says: “When I look at the footage, what emerges prima facie is that there were no precautions taken – within these operations whose legality is debatable – to avoid or spare civilian life. No principle of proportionality because there was wildfire directed at the identified target and ultimately no respect for the principle of distinction.
“So this was a murder in cold blood and could be a war crime as an extrajudicial killing.”
According to the United Nations Office of Human Rights in occupied Palestinian territory (OHCHR oPt), Israeli security forces and settlers have killed at least 813 mostly unarmed Palestinians, including 15 women and 177 children, since 7 October 2023.
In a statement to Sky News regarding Halima’s killing, the OHCHR oPT said: “Any deliberate killing by Israeli security forces of Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank who do not pose an imminent threat to life is unlawful under international human rights law and a war crime in the context of Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian Territory.
“This incident must be investigated independently, effectively, thoroughly, and transparently. If there is evidence of violations of the applicable law enforcement standards, those responsible must be held to account.”
Sophie Alexander, international affairs producer, and Michelle Inez Simon, visual investigations producer, contributed reporting.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy has met Israel’s prime minister in an effort to secure a ceasefire deal in Gaza before the president-elect takes office on 20 January.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed details of the meeting with Steve Witkoff on Saturday, adding that the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency has been deployed to Qatar in order to “advance” talks.
It was not immediately clear when David Barnea would travel to Doha for the latest round of indirect discussions between Israel and Hamas.
Earlier on Saturday, an Israeli official said some progress had been made, mediated by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, to reach a deal in Gaza.
Ronen Bar (left), director of Israel’s security agency, and David Barnea (right), head of Mossad, at a ceremony marking the 7 October Hamas attack. File pic: Reuters
The mediators are making renewed efforts to halt fighting in Gaza and free the remaining Israeli hostages held there before Mr Trump takes office.
A deal would also involve the release of some Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
Families of Israeli hostages welcomed Mr Netanyahu’s decision to dispatch the officials, with the Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters describing it as a “historic opportunity”.
Mr Witkoff arrived in Doha on Friday and met the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
Egyptian and Qatari mediators received reassurances from Mr Witkoff that the US would continue to work towards a fair deal to end the war soon, Egyptian security sources said, though no further details were released.
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Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli figures.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Mr Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home.
Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the area destroyed and gripped by a humanitarian crisis, with most of its population displaced.
Pope Francis has been honoured with America’s highest civilian award by President Joe Biden, who has described the pontiff as “a light of faith, hope, and love that shines brightly across the world”.
It is the first time Mr Biden, 82, has given the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction during his four years in office.
In a statement, the White House said the award is “presented to individuals who have made exemplary contributions to the prosperity, values, or security of the United States, world peace, or other significant societal, public or private endeavours”.
Mr Biden had been scheduled to present the medal to Pope Francis, 88, in person on Saturday in Rome on what was to be the final overseas trip of his presidency. But the president cancelled his visit to monitor the California wildfires.
The White House said Mr Biden bestowed the award during a phone call in which they also discussed efforts to promote peace and alleviate suffering around the world.
President Joe Biden presented Bono with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Pic: AP
Denzel Washington was also recognised. Pic: AP
Michael J Fox was bestowed with the honour. Pic: AP
The award can be presented with or without distinction.
Mr Biden presented the medal of freedom – without distinction – on 5 January to several people including fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton, humanitarian and U2 singer Bono, fashion designer Ralph Lauren and actors Michael J Fox and Denzel Washington.
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Mr Biden himself is a recipient of the award with distinction, recognised when he was vice president by then president Barack Obama in a surprise ceremony eight years ago.
Barack Obama presented Joe Biden with the Presidential Medal of Freedom with Distinction in 2017. File pic: AP
The citation for the pope’s honour said his “mission of serving the poor has never ceased”.
“A loving pastor, he joyfully answers children’s questions about God. A challenging teacher, he commands us to fight for peace and protect the planet. A welcoming leader, he reaches out to different faiths,” it added.
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