What does the COP28 deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels actually mean?

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1 year ago

December 14, 2023

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The latest UN climate change conference in Dubai has seen almost 200 countries commit to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for the first time.

COP28 negotiators have described it as a “historic” and a “landmark” deal for global efforts to reach net zero by 2050.

But many climate scientists are questioning the impact it will have, with others sceptical about the COP process in general.

Here Sky News looks at what the deal means globally, for the UK and for you.

Fossil fuels, net zero and carbon capture

Despite being widely used, some of the key terms used in COP agreements such as the one struck in Dubai can feel ambiguous.

• Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, form naturally from dead plants and animals in the Earth’s crust. They contain hydrocarbon and can be extracted and burned as fuel for heat and electricity.

• Fossil fuel subsidies are defined as any action by a government to lower the cost of fossil fuel production or prices for energy consumers. In 2022 the International Monetary Fund estimated they were worth 7.1% of global GDP, the equivalent of $7trn (£5.6trn).

• Net zero is achieved when global greenhouse emissions balance out what we remove from the atmosphere. It’s not the same as ‘carbon neutral’, a label often used by businesses to imply a concerted reduction in carbon emissions and offsetting those they do produce.

• Carbon capture uses technology to trap carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and store it underground to avoid any harmful effect to the environment.

• ‘Unabated fossil fuels’ refer to those where no attempt has been made to reduce their emissions through techniques such as carbon capture and storage.

What does the deal promise?

Transitioning away from fossil fuels in our energy systems, beginning in this decade, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science
Rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limiting the permitting of new and unabated coal power generation
Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030
Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilising zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century
Accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage particularly in hard to abate sectors, and low carbon hydrogen production, so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems
Substantially reducing non-CO2 emissions, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030
Accelerating emissions reductions from road transport through a range of pathways, including development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero emission vehicles
Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible

What does ‘transitioning away’ mean – aren’t we doing it already?

There was agonising debate over the phrasing of the agreement’s clause on fossil fuels, with “transitioning away” eventually chosen over “phase out” or “phase down”.

It means that renewable energy will increase and be gradually substituted for fossil fuels across all global energy systems, according to Professor David Reay, expert in carbon management at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the Just Transition Commission.

He tells Sky News that unlike “phase out” there is no determined end point to a “transition”, with the language chosen to cater for countries still heavily reliant on fossil fuels without the economic means to adapt as quickly as others.

Professor Ilan Kelman, an expert in disasters and health at University College London, adds that most countries, including the UK and the US, have been “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for decades.

“This is simply the international community saying we agree that we are transitioning and will continue to transition.

“But what does it mean? Not a lot unless we act on it. It’s just legal terminology. We’ve had similar wording in agreements before that haven’t been acted on.”

At COP26 in Glasgow, “phase out” was used for a clause on coal, but this year it has arguably been diluted to “phase down” and “unabated coal”, which implies coal production can continue.

Professor Kelman adds: “It’s really up to governments, companies, non-profits and individuals to enact it and ensure they go forward with it.”

Is COP legally binding?

COP places no legal obligation on its signatories to meet the terms of its agreements.

In response, countries are expected to update their own climate change legislation and ‘nationally determined contributions (NDCs)’, drawn up as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, accordingly.

Professor Reay says this year’s COP agreement is “really important to set the stage” as new NDCs are currently being devised ahead of the next set of targets in 2025.

“By the time we get to COP in Brazil in 2025, we’ve got a possibility of a major closing of the gap in terms of what nations are committing to do and how that adds up to limiting warming close to 1.5C,” he says.

Professor Kelman is more sceptical, saying the lack of accountability and enforcement for countries who fall behind on their promises makes the process “meaningless”.

What does it mean for me?

If the near-200 countries signed up to COP28 honour the idea of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, fewer companies are likely to invest in them, Professor Reay says.

This means that at a consumer level, renewable alternatives like electric cars and heat pumps will become more commonplace – making it easier for us to make green choices, he adds.

But Professor Kelman argues that while COP reinforces the need to reduce our electricity consumption, it is “up to governments local through to national to enact the legislation so people are not hurt” by climate initiatives.

“COP processes and these agreements don’t really have much of an impact on individuals,” he says.

“But as individuals, if we want cheaper electricity, to breathe cleaner air, and for our taxes not to go towards subsidising fossil fuels we have to tell our politicians we want those things.”

How does the UK stand?

The UK Climate Change Act was passed in 2008 and has been updated regularly by successive governments according to global warming estimates and COP agreements.

Like most countries, it has always had the goal of contributing to net zero by 2050.

But earlier this year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was heavily criticised for delaying the ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles, weakening targets to phase out gas boilers, and issuing new gas and oil drilling licences in the North Sea.

While Professor Kelman describes the original UK climate legislation as “world leading”, he says the new North Sea licences are the “antithesis” of climate targets and the transition to a green economy.

Professor Reay chairs the Just Transition Commission, which advocates for progressive long-term sustainability strategies that do not come at a cost to individuals.

He warns that the UK government is using the concept of a ‘just transition’ as an “excuse to go slower on climate action”.

“We’re losing climate leadership not just morally, but it will also damage us economically if we carry on this line of essentially hiding from climate action,” he says.

Is COP28 strong enough for net zero by 2050?

Net zero targets depend first on whether countries adhere to the agreement, but also on how net zero is defined and calculated, Professor Kelman says.

“There are climate experts who say that net zero is so ambiguous and vague that it doesn’t mean much.

“So there’s a chance that countries might not meet their target or they’ll calculate it in such a way that doesn’t help in extensively reducing all greenhouse gases.”

But although we are “way off” the Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5C by the end of the century – instead on track for 3C – Professor Reay still believes COP28 “gets us closer” to net zero 2050 goals.

“This will provide a context for nations to ramp up their ambitions and move us closer,” he adds.

World

Zelenskyy ready to accept ceasefire deal – as US to resume intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine

Published

11 hours ago

March 11, 2025

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Zelenskyy ready to accept ceasefire deal - as US to resume intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to accept a ceasefire deal – as the US says it has immediately resumed intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine.

In a post on Telegram after US and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia, Mr Zelenskyy said “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals” – and that Kyiv “accepts” the US proposal of a full 30-day ceasefire with Russia.

Ukraine war latest: Ball now in Russia’s court, US says

“I want to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” he said.

“Today, in the conversation, the American side proposed to take the first step immediately and try to establish a full ceasefire for 30 days, not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line.

“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, and we are ready to take this step.”

‘Ukraine is ready for peace’

The Ukrainian president then said the US “must convince Russia to do this” and that “if the Russians agree – that’s when the silence will work”.

He added: “An important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support.

“Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it.

“The time has come for the full truth. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, in a joint statement with Kyiv following nine-hour-long talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said it will immediately lift the pause on intelligence-sharing and military aid.

A Ukrainian source told Sky News earlier this month that the US had stopped sharing all intelligence with Kyiv.

‘Ball is now in Russia’s court’

Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, also told reporters that “the ball is now in Russia’s court” after meeting with the Ukrainian delegation.

After the positive talks, Mr Rubio said “we’re going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.

“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”

He then said that while no deadline has been set, he hopes a deal can be reached “as soon as possible” and that “this is serious stuff, this is not Mean Girls, this is not some episode of some television show”.

“The number one goodwill gesture we could see from the Russians is to see the Ukrainian offer and reciprocate it with a yes,” Mr Rubio added.

National security adviser Mike also said added it is “very clear” that Kyiv shares Donald Trump’s vision for peace and says “they share his determination to end the fighting”.

Over in the US, Mr Trump said that officials will meet with Russia either today or tomorrow and confirmed he would invite Mr Zelenskyy back to the White House.

“We want to get the Ukraine war over with,” the US president said, before saying he hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.

He also told reporters he thinks he will talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week – but warned “it takes two to tango”.

Last month, Mr Trump accused Mr Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War Three” in an Oval Office meeting.

US vice president JD Vance told the Ukrainian president “you should be thanking” Mr Trump “for trying to bring an end to this conflict,” sparking a tense 10-minute back-and-forth.

A press conference with the two leaders and the signing of an agreement was then cancelled.

World

Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Saudi Arabia ahead of US-Ukraine meeting – as Marco Rubio says Kyiv should be ‘prepared to do difficult things’

Published

1 day ago

March 11, 2025

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrives in Saudi Arabia ahead of US-Ukraine meeting - as Marco Rubio says Kyiv should be 'prepared to do difficult things'

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Saudi Arabia ahead of his team having talks with America’s top diplomat on Tuesday.

Mr Zelenskyy will not be at the meeting with US secretary of state Marco Rubio, but Mr Zelenskyy’s team will try to improve relations following his disastrous 28 February visit to Washington, which descended into an Oval Office argument with President Donald Trump and vice president JD Vance.

Follow latest updates on Ukraine and Trump

Mr Zelenskyy is due to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman later on Monday, after the end of the daily fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio is also in Jeddah. He is not due to meet Mr Zelenskyy – but he held talks with Prince Mohammed to discuss Yemen and threats to ships from Houthis, Syria, and the reconstruction of Gaza.

During talks on Tuesday the Ukrainian team will try to convince the US to restore military aid and intelligence that had helped Kyiv since Russia‘s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Speaking to reporters while travelling to Jeddah, Mr Rubio said if Ukraine and the US reach an understanding acceptable to Mr Trump, that could accelerate his administration’s push to peace talks.

“What we want to know is, are they interested [in] entering some sort of peace conversation and general outlines of the kinds of things they could consider, recognising that it has been a costly and bloody war for the Ukrainians,” Mr Rubio said.

“They have suffered greatly and their people have suffered greatly. And it’s hard in the aftermath of something like that to even talk about concessions, but that’s the only way this is going to end and prevent more suffering.”

He said: “I’m not going to set any conditions on what they have to or need to do. I think we want to listen to see how far they’re willing to go and then compare that to what the Russians want and see how far apart we truly are.”

He added: “The most important thing that we have to leave here with is a strong sense that Ukraine is prepared to do difficult things, like the Russians are going to have to do difficult things to end this conflict.”

Meanwhile, British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Mr Trump on Monday ahead of the US-Ukraine meeting.

A Downing Street readout of the call said that Sir Keir told the president that “UK officials had been speaking to Ukraine officials over the weekend and they remain committed to a lasting peace”.

“The prime minister said he hoped there would be a positive outcome to the talks that would enable US aid and intelligence sharing to be restarted,” the statement said.

“The two leaders also spoke about the economic deal they had discussed at the White House and the prime minister welcomed the detailed conversations that had already happened to move this forward. Both leaders agreed to stay in touch.”

The European Union agreed last week to boost the continent’s defences and free up hundreds of billions of euros for security in response to the Trump administration’s shift in policy towards Ukraine.

A US intelligence official said a pause on sharing US intelligence that can be used for offensive purposes by Ukrainian forces remains in effect.

The official suggested that progress could be made towards reinstating intelligence sharing with Ukraine during the Saudi talks.

World

Syria’s government signs breakthrough deal with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces

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1 day ago

March 11, 2025

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Syria's government signs breakthrough deal with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces

Syria’s interim government has signed a deal with the Kurdish-led authority that controls the country’s oil-rich northeast.

The agreement – which includes a ceasefire and the merging of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) there into the Syrian army – will bring most of the nation under the control of the government.

The government is currently led by Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which helped to topple president Bashar al Assad in December.

Recent clashes have seen more than 1,000 people killed amid violence between government supporters and those thought to be loyal to the ousted leader.

On Monday, the deal was signed by interim president Ahmad al Sharaa and Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the US-backed SDF.

The deal – to be implemented by the end of the year – would bring all border crossings with Iraq and Turkey, airports and oil fields in the northeast under the central government’s control.

Prisons, where about 9,000 suspected members of the Islamic State group are being held, are also expected to come under government control.

Syria’s Kurds will gain their “constitutional rights” including using and teaching their language, which were banned for decades under Mr Assad.

Hundreds of thousands of Kurds who were displaced during Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war will return to their homes.

The deal will also allow all Syrians to be part of the political process, no matter their religion or ethnicity.

Syria’s new rulers are struggling to exert their authority across the country and reach political settlements with other minority communities, notably the Druze in southern Syria.

Earlier in the day, the government announced the end of the military operation against insurgents loyal to Mr Assad and his family in the worst fighting since the end of the civil war.

The defence ministry’s announcement came after a surprise attack by gunmen from the Alawite community on a police patrol near the port city of Latakia on Thursday spiralled into widespread clashes across Syria’s coastal region.

The Assad family are Alawites.

Defence ministry spokesperson Colonel Abdel-Ghani said security forces will continue searching for sleeper cells and remnants of the insurgency of former government loyalists.

Though the government’s counter-offensive was able to mostly contain the insurgency, footage surfaced of what appeared to be retaliatory attacks targeting the broader minority Alawite community, an offshoot of Shia Islam whose adherents live mainly in the western coastal region.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitoring group, said 1,130 people were killed in the clashes, including 830 civilians.

The interim president said the retaliatory attacks against Alawite civilians and mistreatment of prisoners were isolated incidents, and vowed to crack down on the perpetrators as he formed a committee to investigate.