What does the COP28 deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels actually mean?
The latest UN climate change conference in Dubai has seen almost 200 countries commit to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for the first time.
COP28 negotiators have described it as a “historic” and a “landmark” deal for global efforts to reach net zero by 2050.
But many climate scientists are questioning the impact it will have, with others sceptical about the COP process in general.
Here Sky News looks at what the deal means globally, for the UK and for you.
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COP28 president ‘proud’ of historic deal
Fossil fuels, net zero and carbon capture
Despite being widely used, some of the key terms used in COP agreements such as the one struck in Dubai can feel ambiguous.
• Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, form naturally from dead plants and animals in the Earth’s crust. They contain hydrocarbon and can be extracted and burned as fuel for heat and electricity.
• Fossil fuel subsidies are defined as any action by a government to lower the cost of fossil fuel production or prices for energy consumers. In 2022 the International Monetary Fund estimated they were worth 7.1% of global GDP, the equivalent of $7trn (£5.6trn).
• Net zero is achieved when global greenhouse emissions balance out what we remove from the atmosphere. It’s not the same as ‘carbon neutral’, a label often used by businesses to imply a concerted reduction in carbon emissions and offsetting those they do produce.
• Carbon capture uses technology to trap carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and store it underground to avoid any harmful effect to the environment.
• ‘Unabated fossil fuels’ refer to those where no attempt has been made to reduce their emissions through techniques such as carbon capture and storage.
What does ‘transitioning away’ mean – aren’t we doing it already?
There was agonising debate over the phrasing of the agreement’s clause on fossil fuels, with “transitioning away” eventually chosen over “phase out” or “phase down”.
It means that renewable energy will increase and be gradually substituted for fossil fuels across all global energy systems, according to Professor David Reay, expert in carbon management at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the Just Transition Commission.
He tells Sky News that unlike “phase out” there is no determined end point to a “transition”, with the language chosen to cater for countries still heavily reliant on fossil fuels without the economic means to adapt as quickly as others.
Professor Ilan Kelman, an expert in disasters and health at University College London, adds that most countries, including the UK and the US, have been “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for decades.
“This is simply the international community saying we agree that we are transitioning and will continue to transition.
“But what does it mean? Not a lot unless we act on it. It’s just legal terminology. We’ve had similar wording in agreements before that haven’t been acted on.”
At COP26 in Glasgow, “phase out” was used for a clause on coal, but this year it has arguably been diluted to “phase down” and “unabated coal”, which implies coal production can continue.
Professor Kelman adds: “It’s really up to governments, companies, non-profits and individuals to enact it and ensure they go forward with it.”
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Who is the COP president?
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Can we phase out fossil fuels?
Is COP legally binding?
COP places no legal obligation on its signatories to meet the terms of its agreements.
In response, countries are expected to update their own climate change legislation and ‘nationally determined contributions (NDCs)’, drawn up as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, accordingly.
Professor Reay says this year’s COP agreement is “really important to set the stage” as new NDCs are currently being devised ahead of the next set of targets in 2025.
“By the time we get to COP in Brazil in 2025, we’ve got a possibility of a major closing of the gap in terms of what nations are committing to do and how that adds up to limiting warming close to 1.5C,” he says.
Professor Kelman is more sceptical, saying the lack of accountability and enforcement for countries who fall behind on their promises makes the process “meaningless”.
What does it mean for me?
If the near-200 countries signed up to COP28 honour the idea of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, fewer companies are likely to invest in them, Professor Reay says.
This means that at a consumer level, renewable alternatives like electric cars and heat pumps will become more commonplace – making it easier for us to make green choices, he adds.
But Professor Kelman argues that while COP reinforces the need to reduce our electricity consumption, it is “up to governments local through to national to enact the legislation so people are not hurt” by climate initiatives.
“COP processes and these agreements don’t really have much of an impact on individuals,” he says.
“But as individuals, if we want cheaper electricity, to breathe cleaner air, and for our taxes not to go towards subsidising fossil fuels we have to tell our politicians we want those things.”
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Sunak says North Sea plans are ‘better for climate’
How does the UK stand?
The UK Climate Change Act was passed in 2008 and has been updated regularly by successive governments according to global warming estimates and COP agreements.
Like most countries, it has always had the goal of contributing to net zero by 2050.
But earlier this year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was heavily criticised for delaying the ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles, weakening targets to phase out gas boilers, and issuing new gas and oil drilling licences in the North Sea.
While Professor Kelman describes the original UK climate legislation as “world leading”, he says the new North Sea licences are the “antithesis” of climate targets and the transition to a green economy.
Professor Reay chairs the Just Transition Commission, which advocates for progressive long-term sustainability strategies that do not come at a cost to individuals.
He warns that the UK government is using the concept of a ‘just transition’ as an “excuse to go slower on climate action”.
“We’re losing climate leadership not just morally, but it will also damage us economically if we carry on this line of essentially hiding from climate action,” he says.
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Is COP28 strong enough for net zero by 2050?
Net zero targets depend first on whether countries adhere to the agreement, but also on how net zero is defined and calculated, Professor Kelman says.
“There are climate experts who say that net zero is so ambiguous and vague that it doesn’t mean much.
“So there’s a chance that countries might not meet their target or they’ll calculate it in such a way that doesn’t help in extensively reducing all greenhouse gases.”
But although we are “way off” the Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5C by the end of the century – instead on track for 3C – Professor Reay still believes COP28 “gets us closer” to net zero 2050 goals.
“This will provide a context for nations to ramp up their ambitions and move us closer,” he adds.
The remaining 130 schoolchildren and staff abducted by gunmen from a Catholic school in Nigeria last month have been freed.
They are among more than 300 pupils and 12 staff taken from St Mary’s Catholic boarding school in Niger State on 21 November.
Fifty children managed to escape at the time, the Christian Association of Nigeria previously said, while the government said on 8 December that it had rescued 100 of those abducted.
Belongings and clothes left behind at St Mary’s School after the kidnapping. Pic: Reuters
Now the last of the pupils have been released, a spokesman for President Bola Tinubu said, bringing a close to one of the country’s biggest mass kidnappings in recent years.
“The remaining 130 schoolchildren abducted by terrorists… have now been released,” wrote presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga in a post on X.
“They are expected to arrive in Minna on Monday and rejoin their parents for the Christmas celebration.
“The freedom of the schoolchildren followed a military-intelligence driven operation.”
The abduction has fuelled outrage over worsening insecurity in northern Nigeria, where armed gangs frequently target schools for ransom.
School kidnappings surged after Boko Haram militants abducted 276 girls from Chibok in 2014.
Over a decade later, dozens of the girls taken on that occasion remain missing.
A man suspected of killing 15 people during a shooting in Bondi Beach “conducted firearms training” with his father before the attack on a Jewish event, Australian police have said.
Naveed Akram, 24, and his father, Sajid Akram, allegedly attacked people at a Hanukkah event at Bondi Beach on 14 December, killing victims aged 10 to 87 and injuring 40 others.
Fifty-year-old Sajid Akram was killed by police at the scene, while Naveed was injured and treated in hospital. He has since been charged with 59 offences, including a terror charge, and police transferred him to a prison on Monday.
New South Wales Police have released pictures of Naveed Akram and his father holding guns, as they “conducted firearms training in a countryside location, suspected to be NSW” in late October, according to a police fact sheet seen by Sky News.
Suspected gunman Sajid Akram during the alleged firearms training with his son. Pic: NSW Police/NSW Local Court
“The accused and his father are seen throughout the video firing shotguns and moving in a tactical manner,” police said.
‘Homemade bombs’
On the day of the Bondi Beach attack, the pair allegedly threw homemade bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) at the crowd of people at the gathering near the beach, but these did not detonate.
An analysis indicates that both were “viable” IEDs, according to the police file.
The suspected gunmen were allegedly armed with pipe bombs. Pic: NSW Police/NSW Local Court
Police said they found an IED in the suspects’ car. Pic: NSW Police/NSW Local Court
The information on the fact sheet was released after a suppression order was lifted by an NSW court.
Police allege the men had stored the explosives – three pipe bombs, one tennis ball bomb and one large IED – in a silver Hyundai vehicle, alongside two single-barrel shotguns, a Beretta rifle and two Islamic State flags.
The Hyundai was parked near the scene of the shooting, with the Islamic State flags allegedly displayed in the front and rear windows.
A homemade Islamic State flag was also found in the car, police said. Pic: NSW Police/NSW Local Court
‘Justification’ video found
A phone belonging to Naveed Akram was also found in the car, on which officers identified several videos, including the alleged firearms training video.
Another video shows Naveed Akram and his father sitting in front of an image of an Islamic State flag, with four long-arm guns with rounds attached seen in the background, police said.
The men “appear to summarise their justification for the Bondi terrorist attack” in the footage, according to the fact sheet.
Police said the men walked on the footbridge from where they allegedly shot at crowds two days later. Pic: NSW Local Court
Their Hyundai was previously seen on CCTV entering the car park at Bondi Beach before Naveed Akram and his father walked around the area at around 10pm on 12 December – two days before the shooting.
Police allege that this is evidence of reconnaissance and planning of a terrorist act.
On the day of the shooting, CCTV showed the men leaving a rental house in the nearby suburb of Campsie at around 3pm before driving to Bondi at around 5pm, police said.
The pair were seen carrying bulky items wrapped in blankets, which officers allege were the rifles and homemade bombs.
In the room they rented throughout December, police said they later discovered a firearm scope, ammunition, a suspected IED, 3D-printed parts for a shotgun speed loader, a rifle, a shotgun, numerous firearms parts, bomb-making equipment and two copies of the Koran.
Police said Naveed Akram’s mother told officers that she believed her husband and son were on a fishing trip when they allegedly launched the attack. She said Naveed had been calling her every day from a public phone at around 10.30am.
New gun laws
Meanwhile, the NSW government announced new draft gun laws on Monday, which the state’s premier, Chris Minns, promised would be the toughest in Australia.
The new restrictions would include making Australian citizenship a condition of qualifying for a firearms licence.
But a law like this would have excluded Sajid Akram, who was an Indian citizen with a permanent resident visa for Australia.
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He also legally owned six rifles and shotguns, which would be limited to a maximum of four guns under the new legal limit for recreational shooters.
This comes as Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Monday that his government would introduce a new offence of adults trying to influence and radicalise children after already introducing legislation to criminalise hate speech and doxing.
Israel has approved 19 new Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank in a fresh blow to the possibility of a Palestinian state.
The move brings the number of new settlements over the past few years to 69, a new record, according to Israel‘s far-right finance minister Betzalel Smotrich.
Widely considered illegal under international law, the settlements have been criticised for fragmenting the territory of a future Palestinian state by confiscating land and displacing residents.
Ganim pictured in 2005. Pic: Reuters
Under Israel’s current government, figures show, the number of settlements in the West Bank has surged by nearly 50%, rising from 141 in 2022, to 210 with the new approvals, according to Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog.
The government’s latest action retroactively authorises some previously-established outposts or neighbourhoods of existing settlements, and the creation of settlements on land where Palestinians were evacuated.
It also approves Kadim and Ganim, two of the four settlements dismantled in 2005, and which Israelis were previously banned from re-entering as part of Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Since Israel repealed the 2005 act in March 2023, there have been multiple attempts to resettle them.
Betzalel Smotrich is among prominent names backing the settlements. Pic: AP
The move comes amid mounting pressure from the US to move ahead with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, which took effect on 10 October.
Mr Smotrich is one of a number of figures now prominent in Israel’s government who back the settlements.
The West Bank, east Jerusalem, and Gaza are claimed by the Palestinians for their future state, but were captured by Israel in the 1967 war.
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Today over 500,000 Jews are settled in the West Bank, in addition to over 200,000 in contested east Jerusalem.
Settlements can range in size from a single dwelling to a collection of high-rises, and the occupied territories are also host to a number of unauthorised Israeli outposts.
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