$100,000 BTC? Don’t undervalue Bitcoin ETF influence, says Adam Back
The COVID-19 pandemic, rampant inflation and regional conflicts directly influenced Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop in value over the past two years. However, 2024 promises to be a resurgent period, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back.
The cryptographer, who pioneered the proof-of-work algorithm applied in Bitcoin’s protocol, tells Cointelegraph that the preeminent cryptocurrency is trailing below the historical price trend line of previous mining reward-halving events.
“Biblical” events hurt Bitcoin
Back weighed in on the potential price action of Bitcoin as the next halving, which will see Bitcoin miners’ block reward reduced by 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, looms in April 2024. Block rewards halvings are programmatically hardwired into Bitcoin’s code, taking place after every 210,000 blocks are mined.
Back says that the overlaid averages of the previous market cycles and halvings indicate that Bitcoin’s relative value is trailing behind widely accepted projections. Multiple events have played a role in driving the price of BTC down, which has also been seen across conventional financial markets:
“The last few years were like biblical pestilence and plague. There was COVID-19, quantitative easing, and wars affecting power prices. Inflation running up people, companies are going bankrupt.”
The impact has keenly affected markets and portfolio management according to Back. Investment managers have had to manage risk and losses over the past few years which has necessitated the sale of more liquid assets.
“They have to come up with cash and sometimes they’ll sell the good stuff because it’s liquid and Bitcoin is super liquid. It used to happen with gold and I think that’s a factor for Bitcoin in the last couple of years,” Back explains.
Bitcoin would have hit $100,000 already
As 2023 comes to a close, many of these macro events that Back cited have wound down while more industry-specific failures have also been resolved. This has been reflected in Bitcoin’s recent price surge from Nov. 2023 onwards.
“The wave of the contagion, the companies that went bankrupt because they were exposed to Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, BlockFi and FTX – that’s mostly done. We don’t think there are many more big surprises in store,” Back said.
Related: Blockstream targets continued Bitcoin miner surplus with Series 2 BASIC Note
The Blockstream CEO predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 in the following market cycle earlier this year and referred back to this point. He believes BTC would have hit this mark already if not for the factors highlighted in conversation with Cointelegraph.
Back also referred to the Bitcoin “stock-to-flow” model created by pseudonymous former institutional investor PlanB as a reference point for the potential upside for Bitcoin in 2024.
If you want to know more about bitcoin Stock-to-Flow:
* This is the original 2019 article:https://t.co/n5P5uMCKHT
* Or watch this YouTube video:https://t.co/3SGMU1Ln00 pic.twitter.com/Qp8SjqtXIB— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 5, 2023
Back explains that PlanB’s model and heuristics suggest that savvy Bitcoin investors historically bought BTC six months before a halving event and sold into significant surges in price that have occurred in the 18 months following the drop in mining rewards:
“People thought it was a bit of a crazy assertion that we might get to $100,000 pre-halving because I said it when the price was around $20,000.”
He adds that Bitcoin’s price hitting $44,000 multiple times in Dec. 2023 suggests that his prior prediction might not be so far-fetched.
The Bitcoin ETF effect
Prominent investors and market analysts have also highlighted the effect of the potential approval of several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs) applications by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we’ve had for months (before it was cool/safe). What we watching for now: more amended/final filings to roll in and clarity on in-kind vs cash creates https://t.co/uiWgfxOfzz
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 29, 2023
Senior ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have touted these applications to get the green light in early 2024. Galaxy Digital’s co-founder Michael Novogratz has also predicted mass inflows of institutional investment into the BTC-back products, a point which Back echoes:
“I think Bitcoin could get to $100,000 even before the ETF and before the halving. But I certainly think the ETF shouldn’t be undervalued in its influence.”
A key reason cited by the Bitcoin advocate is that whole segments of traditional markets, including major fund managers like BlackRock and Fidelity, are simply not allowed to invest directly into assets like Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs will drive institutional adoption in 2024 — Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz
“If they’re managing a mutual fund they have rules, either externally imposed or as part of their fund, that they can only buy things like public stocks and ETFs. They can’t buy into startups, they can’t buy precious metals physically. They can’t do any of that stuff,” Back highlights.
This remains a pertinent reason why a spot Bitcoin ETF could drive major capital inflows into the space. Back adds that the investment vehicle opens access to Bitcoin exposure for many types of funds, particularly in the U.S., that are more inclined to do so through Fidelity or BlackRock than with a cryptocurrency exchange.
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SEC Commissioner and head of the crypto task force, Hester Peirce, says US financial firms are navigating crypto in a way that’s similar to playing the children’s game “the floor is lava,” but in the dark.
“It is time that we find a way to end this game. We need to turn on the lights and build some walkways over the lava pit,” Peirce said at the SEC “Know Your Custodian” roundtable event on April 25.
The lava is crypto, says Peirce
Peirce explained that SEC registrants are forced to approach crypto-related activities like “the floor is lava,” where the aim is to jump from one piece of furniture to the next without touching the ground, except here, touching crypto directly is the lava.
“A D.C. version of this game is our regulatory approach to crypto assets, and crypto asset custody in particular,” she said.
Peirce said that, much like in the game, firms wanting to engage with crypto must avoid directly holding it due to unclear regulatory rules. “To engage in crypto-related activities, SEC-registrants have had to hop from one poorly illuminated regulatory space to the next, all while ensuring that they never touch any crypto asset,” Peirce said.
Peirce said that investment advisers are often unsure which crypto assets qualify as securities, what entities count as qualified custodians, and whether “exercising staking or voting rights” could trigger custody violations.
“The twist in the regulatory version is that it is largely played in the dark: burning legal lava and no lamps to illuminate the way.”
Peirce also said that a broker or ATS that cannot custody or manage crypto assets will struggle to facilitate trading, making it unlikely for a “robust market” to develop.
Echoing a similar sentiment, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda said at the event that as more SEC registrants work with crypto assets, it’s essential that they have access to custodial options that meet legal and regulatory requirements.
Uyeda said the agency should consider letting advisers use “state-chartered limited-purpose trust companies” with the authority to hold crypto assets as qualified custodians.
Related: Blockchain needs regulation, scalability to close AI hiring gap
Meanwhile, the recently sworn-in chair of the SEC, Paul Atkins, said that he expected “huge benefits” from blockchain technology through efficiency, risk mitigation, transparency, and cutting costs.
He reiterated that among his goals at the SEC would be to facilitate “clear regulatory rules of the road” for digital assets, hinting that the agency under former chair Gary Gensler had contributed to market and regulatory uncertainty.
“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump’s administration and Congress to establish a rational fit-for-purpose framework for crypto assets,” said Atkins.
Magazine: Bitcoin $100K hopes on ice, SBF’s mysterious prison move: Hodler’s Digest, April 19 – 25
Politics
Labour and Reform in battle for Runcorn by-election seat – but disillusionment could be eventual winner
On the banks of the Mersey, Runcorn and Helsby is a more complicated political picture than the apparent Labour heartland that first presents itself.
Yes, there are industrial and manufacturing areas – an old town that’s fallen victim to out-of-town shopping, and an out-of-town shopping centre that’s fallen victim to Amazon.
But there are also more middle-class new town developments, as well as Tory-facing rural swathes.
Space Cafe director Marie Moss says a sense of community has faded
One thing this area does mirror with many across the country, though, is a fed-up electorate with little confidence that politics can work for them.
In the Space Cafe in Runcorn Old Town, its director Marie Moss says many in the region remember a time when a sense of community was more acute.
“People were very proud of their town… and that’s why people get upset and emotional as they remember that,” she says.
It’s this feeling of disenfranchisement and nostalgia-tinged yearning for the past that Reform UK is trading off in its targeting of traditional Labour voters here.
Party leader Nigel Farage features heavily on leaflets in these parts, alongside spikey messaging around migration, law and order, and Labour’s record in government so far.
Runcorn 2024 result
Taxi driver Mike Holland hears frequent worries about that record from those riding in the back of his cab.
A Labour voter for decades, he says locals were “made up” at last year’s election result but have been “astonished” since then, with benefit changes a common topic of concern.
“Getting a taxi is two things, it’s either a luxury or a necessity… the necessity people are the disabled people… and a lot of the old dears are so stressed and worried about their disability allowance and whether they are going to get it or not get it,” he says.
But will that mean straight switchers to Reform UK?
Taxi driver Mike Holland has voted for Labour for decades, but is now looking at the Lib Dems and Greens – or may not vote at all
Mike says he agrees with some of what the party is offering but thinks a lot of people are put off by Mr Farage.
He’s now looking at the Liberal Democrats and Greens, both of whom have put up local politicians as candidates.
Or, Mike says, he may just not vote at all.
It’s in places like Runcorn town that some of the political contradictions within Reform UK reveal themselves more clearly.
Many here say they were brought up being told to never vote Tory.
And yet, Reform, chasing their support, has chosen a former Conservative councillor as its candidate.
It’s no surprise Labour has been trialling attack lines in this campaign, painting Mr Farage’s party as “failed Tories”.
As a response to this, look no further than Reform’s recent nod to the left on industrialisation and public ownership.
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Read more:
Tough test for Labour after MP quits
MP jailed for late-night brawl
Local elections could re-shape politics
But head 15 minutes south from Runcorn docks, and this by-election campaign changes.
Rural areas like Frodsham and Helsby have, in the past, tended towards the Tories.
The Conservatives, of course, have a candidate in this vote, one who stood in a neighbouring constituency last year.
But Reform is now making a hard play for their supporters in these parts, with a softer message compared to the one being put out in urban areas – an attempt to reassure those anxious about too much political revolution coming to their privet-lined streets.
Labour, meanwhile, is actively trying to mobilise the anti-Farage vote by presenting their candidate – another local councillor – as the only person who can stop Reform.
Makeup artist Nadine Tan is concerned about division and anger in the community
The pitch here is aimed at voters like Frodsham makeup artist Nadine Tan, who are worried about division and anger in the community.
“I think they need to kind of come together and stop trying to divide everyone,” she says.
But like Mike the taxi driver five miles north, disillusionment could be the eventual winner as Nadine says, despite the “thousands of leaflets” through her door, she still thinks “they all say the same thing”.
One factor that doesn’t seem to be swinging too many votes, though, is the insalubrious circumstances in which the area’s former Labour MP left office.
Labour MP Mike Amesbury was convicted of punching a man in the street. Pic: Reuters
Mike Amesbury stepped down after being convicted of repeatedly punching a constituent in a late-night brawl outside a pub.
But across the patch, many praise their ex-MP’s local efforts, while also saying he was “very silly” to have acted in the way he did.
That may be putting it mildly.
But it’s hard to find much more agreement ahead of Thursday’s vote.
A constituency still hungry for change, but unsure as to who can deliver it.
Full list of candidates, Runcorn and Helsby by-election:
Catherine Anne Blaiklock – English Democrats
Dan Clarke – Liberal Party
Chris Copeman – Green Party
Paul Duffy – Liberal Democrats
Peter Ford – Workers Party
Howling Laud Hope – Monster Raving Loony Party
Sean Houlston – Conservatives
Jason Philip Hughes – Volt UK
Alan McKie – Independent
Graham Harry Moore – English Constitution Party
Paul Andrew Murphy – Social Democratic Party
Sarah Pochin – Reform UK
Karen Shore – Labour
John Stevens – Rejoin EU
Michael Williams – Independent
Solana decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Loopscale has temporarily halted its lending markets after suffering an approximately $5.8 million exploit.
On April 26, a hacker siphoned approximately 5.7 million USDC (USDC) and 1200 Solana (SOL) from the lending protocol after taking out a “series of undercollateralized loans”, Loopscale co-founder Mary Gooneratne said in an X post.
The exploit only impacted Loopscale’s USDC and SOL vaults and the losses represent around 12% of Loopscale’s total value locked (TVL), Gooneratne added.
Loopscale is “working to resume repayment functionality as soon as possible to mitigate unforeseen liquidations,” its said in an X post.
“Our team is fully mobilized to investigate, recover funds, and ensure users are protected,” Gooneratne said.
In the first quarter of 2025, hackers stole more than $1.6 billion worth of crypto from exchanges and on-chain smart contracts, blockchain security firm PeckShield said in an April report.
More than 90% of those losses are attributable to a $1.5 billion attack on ByBit, a centralized cryptocurrency exchange, by North Korean hacking outfit Lazarus Group.
Related: Crypto hacks top $1.6B in Q1 2025 — PeckShield
Unique DeFi lending model
Launched on April 10 after a six-month closed beta, Loopscale is a DeFi lending protocol designed to enhance capital efficiency by directly matching lenders and borrowers.
It also supports specialized lending markets, such as “structured credit, receivables financing, and undercollateralized lending,” Loopscale said in an April announcement shared with Cointelegraph.
Loopscale’s order book model distinguishes it from DeFi lending peers such as Aave that aggregate cryptocurrency deposits into liquidity pools.
Loopscale’s main USDC and SOL vaults yield APRs exceeding 5% and 10%, respectively. It also supports lending markets for tokens such as JitoSOL and BONK (BONK) and looping strategies for upwards of 40 different token pairs.
The DeFi protocol has approximately $40 million in TVL and has attracted upwards of 7,000 lenders, according to researcher OurNetwork.
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