“That one stung for a while,” captain Jacob Trouba said of their seven-game first-round loss to the rival New Jersey Devils in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. “They always sting, but that one was a pit in our stomach for a long time.”
It was easy, then, to predict that the Rangers would be a motivated group right out of the gate for the 2023-24 season. The majority of the roster returned. They had a new head coach in Peter Laviolette, as Gerard Gallant paid for the playoff loss with his job. Star winger Artemi Panarin symbolically acknowledged the team’s renewed focus by shearing off his hair as a follicle “reset.”
But few predicted the Rangers’ start would be this good: 19-7-1 through the first 27 games for a .722 points percentage, third best in the NHL. The Rangers have never had a team finish with a points percentage over .700, tracking all the way back to their inaugural season in 1926.
They were near the top 10 in both goals scored and goals against per game. Their special teams are outstanding, including a power play that’s been among the NHL’s best. The freshly shorn Panarin had 39 points in 27 games to spark MVP talk. Chris Kreider posted 14 goals in his first 27 games.
They kept winning through injuries to star defenseman Adam Fox, who missed 10 games, center Filip Chytil, who is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury, and most recently Kaapo Kakko, who is expected to miss significant time with an injury.
They kept winning despite goalie Igor Shesterkin being off his game (.902 save percentage), thanks in no small part to veteran offseason signee Jonathan Quick getting back on his game (8-0-1, .922 save percentage).
It’s all added up to the Rangers being a favorite to win the Metro Division and the Eastern Conference, with a realistic chance at honoring the 30th anniversary of their 1994 Stanley Cup championship by winning another one next June.
What’s changed for the Rangers? Is this success sustainable?
The answers aren’t as encouraging as their record might indicate.
Here’s a look at some of the critical areas for the Rangers this season.
Laviolette vs. Gallant
The Rangers are Laviolette’s sixth NHL head coaching stop. He won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and made the Stanley Cup Final with the Philadelphia Flyers (2010) and Nashville Predators (2017). He’s well-traveled but successful: Laviolette is eighth all-time in coaching wins (771) and has a higher points percentage (.590) than four of the coaches ahead of him on that list.
Before the season, he spelled out his manifesto for the Rangers: an aggressive approach on the ice, with lots of puck pressure and pursuit; a gritty team that can grind down opponents; and one that plays a “playoff style” well before the postseason arrives.
Has that outlook changed the way the Rangers play vs. when Gerard Gallant coached them?
“Statistically and specifically at 5-on-5, there isn’t much of the difference in the data from last year to this year,” said Meghan Chayka of Stathletes, an analyst for ESPN.
Josh Younggren, co-founder of the analytics site Evolving Hockey, noted that 27 games is a small sample size, but that it was difficult to find discernible differences between the Rangers’ two seasons under Gallant and their start under Laviolette.
“Looking at various metrics from our site, the Rangers have been surprisingly consistent under both coaches,” he said.
Younggren said that under both coaches, the Rangers have hovered around 50% in shot attempts and expected goals percentage. They’ve maintained a shooting percentage between 8-9%.
Chayka continues to be impressed with how the Rangers generate chances at 5-on-5. They lead the NHL in offensive zone cross-ice passes per game (6.70), having led the league in that category last season (6.95).
“The Rangers take an NHL-leading 36.3% of their shots off of weak-side plays and an NHL-leading 37.9% of their scoring chances from weakside plays,” she said. “This creates an environment where the Rangers create motion in opposing goalies. They take 6.9% of their shot attempts on a goalie that is not set to the shot, which is third most in the NHL.”
That East-West passing in the offensive zone means the Rangers produce 11.8% of their scoring chances outside of the slot area, which is the third highest rate of chances away from the slot in the league this season.
In this sense, it’s good news that not much has changed from Gallant to Laviolette, because the Rangers continue to thrive offensively at 5-on-5.
“The Rangers have had this offensive approach for multiple seasons and have been effective doing so,” Chayka said. “The high-quality looks created by this passing are likely to continue based on the Rangers having top level playmakers.”
The best way to handle the Rangers’ offense at 5-on-5? Making their top players defend as much as possible, as the Toronto Maple Leafs did effectively in their 7-3 win at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.
“I think it’s vital. I think they’re a far different team when their top people aren’t on the ice,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said. “That’s not uncommon for most teams, but there’s a great discrepancy with this group, so we needed to manage that.”
Some of the Rangers’ depth players have been strong this season, with Younggren shouting out Jimmy Vesey and hard-driving rookie Will Cuylle. But the top five players in points are the usual suspects: Panarin (39 points), Vincent Trocheck (25), Mika Zibanejad (23), Kreider (22) and Fox (18). All the players not named Adam Fox are 30 years old or older.
Defensively, the Rangers are a little leakier under Laviolette. They averaged 2.73 expected goals per 60 minutes last season, and are averaging 2.90 per 60 minutes through 27 games, which is 21st in the NHL.
One point of emphasis for Chayka was their ability to keep opponents from getting scoring chances off the rush.
“When they allow too many opponent chances off the rush, they are playing with fire,” she said. “In wins, they are allowing 3.16 rush scoring chances per game. In losses, they are allowing 5.25 rush scoring chances per game.”
Opponents that can break out pucks well and use their speed continue to vex the Rangers under Laviolette. Auston Matthews mentioned that in light of the Leafs using their agility to put four goals on the board in the first period.
“The way they play, they’re really good in transition and we obviously kind of got a bit of back and forth in the second. But I thought in the first, we were just above them, had good gaps, we were breaking pucks out smoothly and we were coming at them with a lot of speed,” he said. “It was hard for them to handle.”
The power play
The biggest positive difference between the Gallant Rangers and this season’s model has been on the power play.
New York clicked at 24.1% last season, which was good for seventh in the NHL. This season, they’re rocking a 30.5% conversion rate so far, second only to the Devils (31.8%). That 6.4 percentage point increase is tied for the third highest year-over-year improvement this season.
Entering Thursday, their 25 power-play goals were tied for fourth in the NHL.
The Rangers are earning around the same number of power plays per game as they were last season. But they’re capitalizing more, and Younggren believes that’s the biggest difference between the Gallant Rangers and Laviolette’s team so far.
“The only real difference I can find is their shooting percentage on the powerplay: It’s markedly increased while their underlying metrics are mostly in line with the previous seasons,” he said.
According to Younggren, the Rangers are averaging 11.7 goals for per 60 minutes on the power play, compared to 9.4 and 8.2 in their two seasons under Gallant.
From Stathletes, a snapshot of the Rangers this season vs. last season on the power play:
Their special teams have been a difference maker all season. They’re at 84.1% on the penalty kill, which would be up from 81.2% last season.
Opponents are taking note, such as the Maple Leafs this week.
“We talked about winning the special teams a battle or at least drawing even on that,” Keefe said. “They get their power-play goal. We wiped that out with a huge power-play goal in the third and scored a goal on a delayed penalty in the first period. So taking care of that special teams as part of it too is another really important piece.”
What about the goaltending?
Much like the sentence “the Washington Capitals are in a playoff seed despite Alex Ovechkin having five goals” doesn’t make sense, the Rangers being this good without Igor Shesterkin playing up to his standards is equally surprising.
“He’s an elite goaltender. We have a tremendous amount of faith in him,” Laviolette said. “There are things we can do in front of him that are better.”
The former Vezina Trophy winner has a .902 save percentage and a 3.02 goals-against average in 17 games. He has 5.6 goals saved above expected, per Money Puck. He’s still quite good. He’s just not Igor Shesterkin good at the moment.
Younggren sees the Rangers having “worse” goaltending now than under Gallant due to Shesterkin being around five expected goals saved off his pace from the previous two seasons.
Chayka agrees. “Something seems off with Igor Shesterkin in net. He has been average to below average,” she said.
Chayka notes that in save percentage vs. expected, Shesterkin was first in 2021-22 (+.224), 11th last season (+.078) but currently sits 32nd this season (-.052) for goalies with at least 10 games played.
While Shesterkin tries to find his game, the Rangers have been bailed out by the unexpected career resurrection of Jonathan Quick, 37, who has posted a .922 save percentage and a 2.20 goals-against average during an 8-0-1 start. Quick has 9.6 goals saved above expected this season, which is ninth best in the NHL.
“Jonathan’s career has been amazing. The fact that he’s found himself [again] being a three-time Stanley Cup champion, his work ethic and quality of person that he is can be a really good thing for your team,” Laviolette said.
So… are the Rangers for real?
What the Rangers have done for the first 27 games of the season is encouraging. But is it sustainable?
“The Rangers are funny. This year’s team feels like every other Rangers team of the last few years. They’re still relying on solid to great goaltending, a very strong power play, and some luck,” Younggren said. “At the very least, this season’s roster is fairly similar to those under Gallant; and it appears their players, for the most part, are doing what they’ve always done.”
But Younggren feels the Rangers’ record is a bit inflated when one looks under the hood at what they’re doing analytically, as well as what he considers to be an untenable record in one-goal games this season: 9-0-1, easily the best winning percentage in those situations in the league.
That doesn’t mean the wheels are going to come off for the Rangers, however.
“I think it’s reasonable to assume, given the consistent roster and previous performance, they can keep up a similar recipe of strong goaltending and power play success,” Younggren said. “It’s typically quite risky to rely on goaltending and shooting alone — without similarly strong shot-attempt and/or quality metrics to back those up — but the Rangers continue to do it.”
Plus, they’ve managed to thrive without Shesterkin dominating. Based on his career numbers, one assumes he’ll find his groove.
Obviously, Laviolette is pleased with his team’s place in the standings. But like his players, they have bigger successes in mind. What he wants to see are the Rangers playing the way they’ll need to play in order to thrive in the playoffs.
“You can’t just flip a switch. It has to be pushed on throughout the season so that it’s not something that you’re asking to change or flip a switch to play playoff hockey,” he said. “It’s so that you’re preparing yourself the whole year to play playoff hockey.”
That playoff push is fueled with a sense of urgency. Not only to erase last postseason’s disappointment, but because this roster wants to lift the Cup together.
“The core guys have been here for a while now. We have limited chances. That’s the reality of the sport,” Trouba said. “The time is now.”
Stuart Skinner made 33 saves in the Edmonton net to improve to 4-4 in the postseason this year, his first victory in the playoffs that wasn’t a shutout.
“We had a bit of a dip, they had a bit of push,” Nugent-Hopkins said of the Stars’ play in the second period, lauding Skinner for keeping the team in it. “He stepped up big time for us, and made some big saves. You need your goalies to do that.”
The Oilers have won two straight since their third-period collapse in Game 1 in Dallas, and improved to 10-3 in the postseason since dropping the first two games of their first-round series vs. the Los Angeles Kings.
Jason Robertson scored for the Stars, who are hoping to avoid being knocked out in the third round by the Oilers for a second consecutive season.
“They were definitely the better team in the second period,” Skinner said of the Stars. “And we kind of knew that going into the third. So, we just had to reset.”
Jake Oettinger stopped 18 shots in Dallas’ net, falling to 5-10 in his career in West final contests.
STOCKHOLM — Buffalo Sabres star forward Tage Thompson scored the winner 2:02 into overtime, and Team USA outlasted Switzerland 1-0 in the final of the ice hockey world championship at Avicii Arena on Sunday.
It is the first on-ice trophy for USA Hockey in this tournament in 92 years, after the Americans brought it home back in 1933. And it was an emotional one. As Team USA posed for its championship photo at center ice, players held up a No. 13 jersey of Johnny Gaudreau, the former NHL and USA Hockey star forward who died tragically last August when he and his brother, Matthew, were hit by an allegedly drunken and enraged driver as they cycled at night in New Jersey.
Thompson, who had 44 goals and 72 points with the Sabres this season, is hoping to polish off his resume for a spot on the U.S. roster for the 2026 Olympics, and he’s off to a great start. A Team USA reserve for the 4 Nations Face-Off in February who did not suit up, Thompson made the most of his time playing with a host of young NHL forwards who either did not make, or have been eliminated from, the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Thompson’s shot, off passes from Utah Hockey Club forward Logan Cooley and Nashville Predators defenseman Brady Skjei, flew past the blocker of Swiss goaltender Leonardo Genoni, ending a dramatic but tight title game. Team USA outshot Switzerland 40-25.
Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman capped off the shutout in the final, finishing with 25 saves a year after his NHL teammate, David Pastrnak led the Czech Republic to this same title.
“We did it, the wait is over,” Swayman said in a post to USA Hockey fans on the organization’s social media platforms. “Thanks for sticking along with us. It’s going to be a great summer.”
The Americans were also formally awarded the title in 1960 when they won the Olympic tournament and the worlds did not take place. But they hadn’t won it on the ice in more than nine decades.
The Swiss played without injured star center Nico Hischier, the captain of the New Jersey Devils. After the loss, Genoni was named the tournament’s MVP.
Earlier Sunday, Sweden defeated Denmark 6-2 in the bronze medal game. Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund and Minnesota Wild forward Marcus Johansson scored two goals each for the hosts, marking the second-straight third-place finish for Sweden. The fourth-place result was the best-ever finish for Denmark.
While fans in Edmonton and Dallas are always singing about how they have friends in low places, only one of them has the high ground in the Western Conference finals. And that’s the Oilers after their 6-1 win Sunday in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.
With the series tied heading into Sunday, the objective for Game 3 was to gain a firm grasp of the conference finals, and the Oilers did just that by having five players with multipoint performances. As for the Stars, losing Game 3 left them trailing a series for the second time this postseason, with the only other such occurrence coming after Game 1 against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
Now that the Oilers are in control of the series, what does it mean for them going forward? What must the Stars do differently ahead of Game 4 for them to return home tied rather than a game away from elimination? Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski examine those questions while delving into what lies ahead for two teams that not only faced each other in the conference finals last season but between them have been involved in every conference final since 2020.
Edmonton Oilers Grade: A
Much could change between now and whenever the playoffs end. But for now, the argument could be made that this was the most important playoff game the Oilers have had this postseason.
The Oilers have had numerous strong performances, such as Game 3 against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round or their final two games against the Vegas Golden Knights in the conference semifinals. But what made the Oilers’ performance in Game 3 against Dallas arguably their most important was that they found a balance between being difficult in the defensive zone while not relying on a shutout to accomplish that objective.
The Stars finished with 37 shots, 13 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play and scored only once. Connor McDavid has repeatedly stressed that the Oilers can play defense, and that has been made clear over their past five games. But Sunday proved they didn’t need Stuart Skinner or their defensive structure to blank an opponent to win. — Ryan S. Clark
Dallas Stars Grade: C+
The final score doesn’t reflect the majority of this game, which Dallas coach Pete DeBoer can mine for positives among the many (many) negatives and some mitigating circumstances. Having Roope Hintz warm up but not be able to go because of the foot injury he suffered from a Darnell Nurse slash in Game 2? That’s deflating. Having the on-ice officials miss a delay of game call on Brett Kulak in the first period only to have Evan Bouchard open the scoring 10 seconds later? Also deflating.
So it’s to the Stars’ credit that they got to their game at 5-on-5 in Game 3 better than they have in any game of the series, at least before Edmonton ran up the score in the third. The results weren’t there and a loss is a loss — and a loss by this margin is difficult to stomach — but their second period and the performances from some of their slumbering depth players give the Stars at least a glimmer.
However, there’s no question Edmonton has this thing in well in-hand and the Stars have to find a way to solve Skinner, which is not something I thought I’d be writing at this stage of the postseason. — Greg Wyshynski
Three Stars of Game 3
Two goals and an assist for his seventh career multigoal playoff game. Hyman’s second goal was the Oilers’ fourth off the rush, the most in one game by any team this postseason. Hyman also was plus-5 Sunday.
Bouchard scored his sixth goal of the postseason and these two were on the ice for the first two Edmonton goals. At 5-on-5 this postseason, the Oilers are outscoring their opponents 7-1, and 5-0 in this series, when Bouchard and Kulak are on the ice.
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Connor McDavid restores Oilers’ 2-goal lead
Connor McDavid finds the back of the net to restore the Oilers’ two-goal lead vs. the Stars.
3. Connor McDavid C, Oilers
For all the talk about the lack of goals from the best hockey player in the world (which was odd because he had 20 points in 13 games and was a plus-7 entering Game 3 despite having only three goals), McDavid punched out a pair of tucks for his sixth career multigoal playoff game. Also, seeing McDavid with the puck barreling toward the net on a 3-on-1 is nightmare fuel for opponents. — Arda Ćcal
Players to watch in Game 4
Zach Hyman LW, Oilers
To go from 16 goals last postseason to just three goals entering Game 3 of the conference finals is one way to assess Hyman. Another is to realize that he’s been the most physical player on a team that is among the tallest and heaviest in the NHL.
Hyman came into Game 3 leading the NHL with 99 hits. He remained physical Sunday by leading the way with six hits in a game that saw the Oilers continue their punishing style with 47. But to then see Hyman score two goals and finish with three points in addition to that physicality? It once again adds to the narrative that the Oilers might not only have more dimensions than last year’s team, they could be better than the team that finished Stanley Cup runner-up in 2024. — Clark
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Zach Hyman’s 2nd goal puts Oilers up 4
Zach Hyman taps home his second goal of the game to put the Oilers up 5-1 vs. the Stars.
This is the first two-game losing streak for the Dallas goaltender in the playoffs. A lot of what happened in Game 3 wasn’t necessarily on him — a Connor McDavid beauty and a Zach Hyman breakaway were among the Edmonton tallies — but outside of the third period of Game 1, he’s not been a difference-maker in this series. Oettinger came into the game leading the playoffs with 5.58 goals saved above expected, according to Stathletes. The Stars have been able to depend on him as a slump-breaker. But this is his third game with a save percentage south of .900 in the series. As the Stars try to build on some positives from this game, they need Otter to provide the foundation for it — and in the process, silence those “U.S. backup!” chants from the Oilers fans. — Wyshynski
Big questions for Game 4
Are the Oilers about to do to the Stars what they did to the Golden Knights?
Simply put, the Oilers are where hope goes to die. Teams in a championship window that have yet to win a title are always being judged on their evolution. What the Oilers did to the Stars a year ago in the conference finals by winning the last three games showed that they could close out a series after trailing. This postseason Edmonton has shown a calculated and methodical coldness when it comes to putting away opponents.
The Golden Knights won Game 3 on a last-second goal to create the belief they may have found an opening. They didn’t score again for the rest of the playoffs after being in the top five of goals per game throughout the regular season. Breaking out for six goals to open the series seemed to be a sign the Stars may have found an opening. Since then? They’ve scored only once in the last six periods while facing questions about what’s happened to another team that went from being in the top five in goals per game in the regular season. — Clark
Can Dallas make Edmonton uncomfortable at all?
Our colleague Mark Messier made this point between periods of Game 3: The Stars have yet to do anything to get McDavid or Leon Draisaitl off their games. That extends to the rest of the Oilers. Outside of an anomalous run of three power-play goals in the third period of Game 1, there have been precious few instances of the Stars carrying play for long stretches or putting a scare into Edmonton at 5-on-5.
They had that for a bit in Game 3 with a dominant second period: plus-14 in shot attempts, plus-11 in scoring chances and a 10-1 advantage in high-danger shot attempts. But they were digging out of a 2-0 hole, only managed to get one goal of their own on the board and then McDavid stuck a dagger in them with 19 seconds left in the second.
The Stars need a lead. They need zone time. They need to get their rush game going: Skinner had a .897 save percentage on shots off the rush entering the game. Edmonton is playing with a champion’s confidence. Dallas has to find a way to inject a little doubt into its opponent or this series is going to end quickly. — Wyshynski