Are the New York Rangers for real? What the stats, opponents and the Rangers themselves say
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
The New York Rangers hated how last season ended.
“That one stung for a while,” captain Jacob Trouba said of their seven-game first-round loss to the rival New Jersey Devils in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. “They always sting, but that one was a pit in our stomach for a long time.”
It was easy, then, to predict that the Rangers would be a motivated group right out of the gate for the 2023-24 season. The majority of the roster returned. They had a new head coach in Peter Laviolette, as Gerard Gallant paid for the playoff loss with his job. Star winger Artemi Panarin symbolically acknowledged the team’s renewed focus by shearing off his hair as a follicle “reset.”
But few predicted the Rangers’ start would be this good: 19-7-1 through the first 27 games for a .722 points percentage, third best in the NHL. The Rangers have never had a team finish with a points percentage over .700, tracking all the way back to their inaugural season in 1926.
They were near the top 10 in both goals scored and goals against per game. Their special teams are outstanding, including a power play that’s been among the NHL’s best. The freshly shorn Panarin had 39 points in 27 games to spark MVP talk. Chris Kreider posted 14 goals in his first 27 games.
They kept winning through injuries to star defenseman Adam Fox, who missed 10 games, center Filip Chytil, who is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury, and most recently Kaapo Kakko, who is expected to miss significant time with an injury.
They kept winning despite goalie Igor Shesterkin being off his game (.902 save percentage), thanks in no small part to veteran offseason signee Jonathan Quick getting back on his game (8-0-1, .922 save percentage).
It’s all added up to the Rangers being a favorite to win the Metro Division and the Eastern Conference, with a realistic chance at honoring the 30th anniversary of their 1994 Stanley Cup championship by winning another one next June.
What’s changed for the Rangers? Is this success sustainable?
The answers aren’t as encouraging as their record might indicate.
Here’s a look at some of the critical areas for the Rangers this season.
Laviolette vs. Gallant
The Rangers are Laviolette’s sixth NHL head coaching stop. He won the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and made the Stanley Cup Final with the Philadelphia Flyers (2010) and Nashville Predators (2017). He’s well-traveled but successful: Laviolette is eighth all-time in coaching wins (771) and has a higher points percentage (.590) than four of the coaches ahead of him on that list.
Before the season, he spelled out his manifesto for the Rangers: an aggressive approach on the ice, with lots of puck pressure and pursuit; a gritty team that can grind down opponents; and one that plays a “playoff style” well before the postseason arrives.
Has that outlook changed the way the Rangers play vs. when Gerard Gallant coached them?
“Statistically and specifically at 5-on-5, there isn’t much of the difference in the data from last year to this year,” said Meghan Chayka of Stathletes, an analyst for ESPN.
Josh Younggren, co-founder of the analytics site Evolving Hockey, noted that 27 games is a small sample size, but that it was difficult to find discernible differences between the Rangers’ two seasons under Gallant and their start under Laviolette.
“Looking at various metrics from our site, the Rangers have been surprisingly consistent under both coaches,” he said.
Younggren said that under both coaches, the Rangers have hovered around 50% in shot attempts and expected goals percentage. They’ve maintained a shooting percentage between 8-9%.
Chayka continues to be impressed with how the Rangers generate chances at 5-on-5. They lead the NHL in offensive zone cross-ice passes per game (6.70), having led the league in that category last season (6.95).
“The Rangers take an NHL-leading 36.3% of their shots off of weak-side plays and an NHL-leading 37.9% of their scoring chances from weakside plays,” she said. “This creates an environment where the Rangers create motion in opposing goalies. They take 6.9% of their shot attempts on a goalie that is not set to the shot, which is third most in the NHL.”
That East-West passing in the offensive zone means the Rangers produce 11.8% of their scoring chances outside of the slot area, which is the third highest rate of chances away from the slot in the league this season.
In this sense, it’s good news that not much has changed from Gallant to Laviolette, because the Rangers continue to thrive offensively at 5-on-5.
“The Rangers have had this offensive approach for multiple seasons and have been effective doing so,” Chayka said. “The high-quality looks created by this passing are likely to continue based on the Rangers having top level playmakers.”
The best way to handle the Rangers’ offense at 5-on-5? Making their top players defend as much as possible, as the Toronto Maple Leafs did effectively in their 7-3 win at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.
“I think it’s vital. I think they’re a far different team when their top people aren’t on the ice,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said. “That’s not uncommon for most teams, but there’s a great discrepancy with this group, so we needed to manage that.”
Some of the Rangers’ depth players have been strong this season, with Younggren shouting out Jimmy Vesey and hard-driving rookie Will Cuylle. But the top five players in points are the usual suspects: Panarin (39 points), Vincent Trocheck (25), Mika Zibanejad (23), Kreider (22) and Fox (18). All the players not named Adam Fox are 30 years old or older.
Defensively, the Rangers are a little leakier under Laviolette. They averaged 2.73 expected goals per 60 minutes last season, and are averaging 2.90 per 60 minutes through 27 games, which is 21st in the NHL.
One point of emphasis for Chayka was their ability to keep opponents from getting scoring chances off the rush.
“When they allow too many opponent chances off the rush, they are playing with fire,” she said. “In wins, they are allowing 3.16 rush scoring chances per game. In losses, they are allowing 5.25 rush scoring chances per game.”
Opponents that can break out pucks well and use their speed continue to vex the Rangers under Laviolette. Auston Matthews mentioned that in light of the Leafs using their agility to put four goals on the board in the first period.
“The way they play, they’re really good in transition and we obviously kind of got a bit of back and forth in the second. But I thought in the first, we were just above them, had good gaps, we were breaking pucks out smoothly and we were coming at them with a lot of speed,” he said. “It was hard for them to handle.”
The power play
The biggest positive difference between the Gallant Rangers and this season’s model has been on the power play.
New York clicked at 24.1% last season, which was good for seventh in the NHL. This season, they’re rocking a 30.5% conversion rate so far, second only to the Devils (31.8%). That 6.4 percentage point increase is tied for the third highest year-over-year improvement this season.
Entering Thursday, their 25 power-play goals were tied for fourth in the NHL.
The Rangers are earning around the same number of power plays per game as they were last season. But they’re capitalizing more, and Younggren believes that’s the biggest difference between the Gallant Rangers and Laviolette’s team so far.
“The only real difference I can find is their shooting percentage on the powerplay: It’s markedly increased while their underlying metrics are mostly in line with the previous seasons,” he said.
According to Younggren, the Rangers are averaging 11.7 goals for per 60 minutes on the power play, compared to 9.4 and 8.2 in their two seasons under Gallant.
From Stathletes, a snapshot of the Rangers this season vs. last season on the power play:
Their special teams have been a difference maker all season. They’re at 84.1% on the penalty kill, which would be up from 81.2% last season.
Opponents are taking note, such as the Maple Leafs this week.
“We talked about winning the special teams a battle or at least drawing even on that,” Keefe said. “They get their power-play goal. We wiped that out with a huge power-play goal in the third and scored a goal on a delayed penalty in the first period. So taking care of that special teams as part of it too is another really important piece.”
What about the goaltending?
Much like the sentence “the Washington Capitals are in a playoff seed despite Alex Ovechkin having five goals” doesn’t make sense, the Rangers being this good without Igor Shesterkin playing up to his standards is equally surprising.
“He’s an elite goaltender. We have a tremendous amount of faith in him,” Laviolette said. “There are things we can do in front of him that are better.”
The former Vezina Trophy winner has a .902 save percentage and a 3.02 goals-against average in 17 games. He has 5.6 goals saved above expected, per Money Puck. He’s still quite good. He’s just not Igor Shesterkin good at the moment.
Younggren sees the Rangers having “worse” goaltending now than under Gallant due to Shesterkin being around five expected goals saved off his pace from the previous two seasons.
Chayka agrees. “Something seems off with Igor Shesterkin in net. He has been average to below average,” she said.
Chayka notes that in save percentage vs. expected, Shesterkin was first in 2021-22 (+.224), 11th last season (+.078) but currently sits 32nd this season (-.052) for goalies with at least 10 games played.
While Shesterkin tries to find his game, the Rangers have been bailed out by the unexpected career resurrection of Jonathan Quick, 37, who has posted a .922 save percentage and a 2.20 goals-against average during an 8-0-1 start. Quick has 9.6 goals saved above expected this season, which is ninth best in the NHL.
“Jonathan’s career has been amazing. The fact that he’s found himself [again] being a three-time Stanley Cup champion, his work ethic and quality of person that he is can be a really good thing for your team,” Laviolette said.
So… are the Rangers for real?
What the Rangers have done for the first 27 games of the season is encouraging. But is it sustainable?
“The Rangers are funny. This year’s team feels like every other Rangers team of the last few years. They’re still relying on solid to great goaltending, a very strong power play, and some luck,” Younggren said. “At the very least, this season’s roster is fairly similar to those under Gallant; and it appears their players, for the most part, are doing what they’ve always done.”
But Younggren feels the Rangers’ record is a bit inflated when one looks under the hood at what they’re doing analytically, as well as what he considers to be an untenable record in one-goal games this season: 9-0-1, easily the best winning percentage in those situations in the league.
That doesn’t mean the wheels are going to come off for the Rangers, however.
“I think it’s reasonable to assume, given the consistent roster and previous performance, they can keep up a similar recipe of strong goaltending and power play success,” Younggren said. “It’s typically quite risky to rely on goaltending and shooting alone — without similarly strong shot-attempt and/or quality metrics to back those up — but the Rangers continue to do it.”
Plus, they’ve managed to thrive without Shesterkin dominating. Based on his career numbers, one assumes he’ll find his groove.
Obviously, Laviolette is pleased with his team’s place in the standings. But like his players, they have bigger successes in mind. What he wants to see are the Rangers playing the way they’ll need to play in order to thrive in the playoffs.
“You can’t just flip a switch. It has to be pushed on throughout the season so that it’s not something that you’re asking to change or flip a switch to play playoff hockey,” he said. “It’s so that you’re preparing yourself the whole year to play playoff hockey.”
That playoff push is fueled with a sense of urgency. Not only to erase last postseason’s disappointment, but because this roster wants to lift the Cup together.
“The core guys have been here for a while now. We have limited chances. That’s the reality of the sport,” Trouba said. “The time is now.”
The first day of the 2025 MLB draft is complete! The Washington Nationals selected Eli Willits with the No. 1 pick, opting for the prep shortstop — who might be more likely to sign below slot — in a draft with no clear-cut top prospect. And there were plenty of other intriguing selections as the first three rounds unfolded Sunday night.
The Seattle Mariners had to have been thrilled to have Kiley McDaniel’s No. 1-ranked prospect, Kade Anderson, fall to them at No. 3, and Ethan Holliday was selected at No. 4 by his famous father’s former squad the Colorado Rockies.
We asked ESPN baseball insiders Alden Gonzalez, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to break down their favorite and most head-scratching moves of the draft’s first night, as well as to predict which players will bring the most to their new teams in the long term.
A lot of us were thrown for a loop by the first two selections. What do you make of the Nationals taking Ethan Willits at No. 1 and the Angels picking Tyler Bremner at No. 2?
Gonzalez: I was stunned on both accounts. Though there was definitely some uncertainty around the Nationals’ approach, especially since the firing of GM Mike Rizzo, I didn’t see anybody, anywhere, projecting Willits to be their choice at No. 1 overall. But the Angels drafting Bremner was an even bigger risk. Kiley had him 18th in his latest ranking. Six pitchers were ranked ahead of him. But Bremner might be someone who can rise and impact their major league roster quickly, and the Angels are always looking for that.
Rogers: The first two picks really summed up the uncertainty of the entire draft. The Nationals’ faith in a 17-year-old will be tested over the coming years, but the pick will likely save them some money for later in this draft and give Willits time to grow. The same can be said of many of the top picks: They’re going to need time. There are far fewer sure things this year — though Bremner could be the exception. The Angles love to graduate their players quickly, and as a college arm, he could see the majors sooner rather than later. Like Willits, this could also be a cost-saving move for later spending.
Schoenfield: In a draft that not only lacked a sure-thing No. 1 overall pick but was viewed as weaker at the top than those of recent years, it’s perhaps not a huge surprise that the Nationals and Angels used their picks to strike likely underslot deals with Willits and Bremner, giving them money to spend later in the draft — which they can use on high school prospects who might have slipped, trying to buy them out from going to college. It’s a strategy teams have used with success over the years, so the drafts for the Nationals and Angels will have to be viewed in their totality and not just focused on these two players.
What was your favorite pick of the night — and which one had you scratching your head?
Gonzalez: The Rockies have done a lot of things wrong over these last few … uh, decades. But it was really cool to see them take Ethan Holliday at No. 4 after his father, Matt, starred in Colorado for so long. Outside of the top two picks, Ethan Conrad going 17th to the Cubs was my biggest surprise of the night. Kiley had him ranked 30th; others had him falling out of the first round entirely. There’s uncertainty coming off shoulder surgery. But Conrad, 21, put up a 1.238 OPS in 97 plate appearances before his season ended prematurely in March. And the dearth of college bats probably influenced a slight reach here.
Rogers: I’m loving Billy Carlson to the White Sox at No. 10. Though they lost 121 games last season, Chicago couldn’t pick higher than this spot per CBA rules — but the Sox might have gotten a top-five player. Carlson’s defense will play extremely well behind a sneaky good and young pitching staff that should keep the ball on the ground in the long term. Meanwhile, with the pick of the litter when it came to hitters — college outfielders and high school kids as well — the Pirates took a high school pitcher at No. 6. Seth Hernandez could be great, but they need hitting. A lot of it.
Schoenfield: The Mariners reportedly wanted LSU left-hander Kade Anderson all along, but they certainly couldn’t have been expecting to get him with the third pick. (Keep in mind that the Mariners were lucky in the first place to land the third pick in the lottery, so they added some good fortune on top of good luck.) They get the most polished college pitcher in the draft, one who should move quickly — and perhaps make it a little easier for Jerry Dipoto to dip into his farm system and upgrade the big league roster at the trade deadline. Even though I understand why the Angels did it, Bremner still seems a little questionable. With the second pick, you want to go for a home run, and the consensus is that Holliday or even Anderson is more likely to be a more impactful major leaguer. Bremner’s lack of a third plus pitch is an issue, and you have to wonder if the Angels are relying too much on his control — which, yes, should allow him to get to the majors — and ignoring the possible lack of upside.
Who is the one player you’d like to plant your flag on as the biggest steal of this draft?
Gonzalez: Seth Hernandez, who went sixth to the Pirates and should someday share a rotation with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. High school pitchers are incredibly risky, especially when taken so early in the draft. But Hernandez is a great athlete who already throws hard, boasts a plus changeup and showed improvement with his breaking ball this spring. He’ll go the Hunter Greene route, from standout high school pitcher to major league ace.
Rogers: Jamie Arnold will look like a steal at No. 11, especially when he debuts in the majors well before many of the players taken around him. I’m not worried about the innings drop in 2025 — not when he was striking out 119 hitters and walking just 27. The A’s need to polish him up but will be pleased by how consistent he’ll be. You can’t go wrong with a college lefty from an ACC school — at least, the A’s didn’t.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Billy Carlson with the 10th pick — with the admitted caveat that the White Sox haven’t exactly been stellar at developing hitters. But Carlson looks like an elite defensive shortstop with plus power, and that alone can make him a valuable major leaguer. If the hit tool comes along, we’re looking at a potential star. OK, he’s Bobby Witt Jr. lite? That’s still an All-Star player.
What’s your biggest takeaway from Day 1 of this draft?
Gonzalez: The Nationals throwing a wrench into the proceedings by selecting Willits. It was a surprising choice, but in their minds an easy one. Interim general manager Mike DeBartolo called Willits the best hitter and best fielder available. And in a draft devoid of can’t-miss, high-impact talent, Willits is no doubt a solid pick — a polished hitter who should stick at shortstop and might consistently hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases at a premium position. He also might come under slot, allowing flexibility later in the draft. But his selection is what allowed Anderson to reach the Mariners at No. 3 and prompted the Rockies to draft Holliday at No. 4, among other dominoes. It set a really interesting tone.
Rogers: Things change quickly in baseball. Whereas college hitters are usually the safest bets early in the draft, this year high school position players dominated. (And they all play shortstop, at least for now.) Athleticism has returned to baseball, and draft rooms are acting accordingly.
Schoenfield: I’m agreeing with Jesse. The selection of that many prep shortstops stood out — and they all seem to hit left-handed and run well, and some of them have big power potential and a cannon for an arm. Look, the hit tool is the most important and the hardest to scout and project, so not all these kids are going to make it, but their potential is exciting and, to Jesse’s point, their wide range of tools is showing that baseball is still drawing top athletes to the sport.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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