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Software programmers, IT specialists and chefs could be in shorter supply when an increased minimum salary for skilled worker visas kicks in next year, according to analysis conducted for Sky News.

Currently companies sponsoring a skilled worker from overseas for a visa have to pay a minimum salary of £26,200, but that will increase to £38,700 from April, pricing out the “going rate” for the majority of professions and trades eligible.

Analysis by immigration specialists Eversheds Sutherland found that, of the jobs with an official going rate below the new threshold, there were most applications for IT and software professionals, as well as chefs in the first half of this year.

There were 3,670 applications for programmers and software development professionals, 2,878 for IT and business analysts, and 2,382 for chefs in the six months to July.

Programmers are also the most in-demand profession based on data from the start of 2019, with 30,738 visa applications in total, and IT specialists second with 24,203.

Read more from Sky News:
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The plight of the care sector and the row over visas

Demand for chefs under the skilled worker visa scheme is largely a post-Brexit, post-pandemic trend however, with demand increasing from fewer than 100 visas in 2019 rising to almost 3,500 in 2022.

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That reflects anecdotal evidence from the hospitality industry of an exodus of EU-born staff, who did not require a visa before 2020, many of whom did not return after the pandemic.

There was a similar spike in demand for restaurant and catering managers as well as butchers, who were in short supply last year prompting concerns that pigs in particular would need to be culled.

There was just a single skilled visa application for a butcher in the two and a half years from 2019 to mid-2021, but 3,060 in the 18 months that followed.

Audrey Elliott, partner and head of immigration at Eversheds Sutherland, said the changes, and the lack of detail from the Home Office since Home Secretary James Cleverley made the headline announcement last week, was leading to uncertainty.

“The change proposed in respect of the salary threshold is significant and there are many ramifications arising from this increase that will need to be worked though as the detail becomes available,” she said.

“In the meantime we have a period of uncertainly for employers, employees and candidates. Employers in the UK have experienced many challenges in the last few years in resourcing their businesses with the skills and experience needed.

Brexit and COVID created significant change in the recruitment landscape – from the legal basis of work to the move to remote and hybrid working. A few years on we are all getting to grips with the art of the possible and this announcement will see a return to uncertainty.”

Some of the jobs on the list, which counts the most-used Home Office occupation codes, are also on the government’s shortage occupation list, which allows companies to pay a 20% discount on the going rate for jobs that cannot be easily filled in the UK, but is being scrapped under the new rules.

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Tough visa rules for foreign workers

It will be replaced by an immigration salary list, but it is unclear at this stage what roles and what pay will be permitted.

Mr Cleverly told the House of Commons the changes were part of a package of measures intended to reduce legal migration and in turn net migration, from a record 745,000 people in last year.

The Home Office said details of the policy changes would be published in due course.

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

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FTSE 100 closes at record high

The UK’s benchmark stock index has reached another record high.

The FTSE 100 index of most valuable companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at 8,505.69, breaking the record set last May.

It had already broken its intraday high at 8532.58 on Friday afternoon, meaning it reached a high not seen before during trading hours.

Money blog: Major boost for mortgage holders

The weakened pound has boosted many of the 100 companies forming the top-flight index.

Why is this happening?

Most are not based in the UK, so a less valuable pound means their sterling-priced shares are cheaper to buy for people using other currencies, typically US dollars.

This makes the shares better value, prompting more to be bought. This greater demand has brought up the prices and the FTSE 100.

The pound has been hovering below $1.22 for much of Friday. It’s steadily fallen from being worth $1.34 in late September.

Also spurring the new record are market expectations for more interest rate cuts in 2025, something which would make borrowing cheaper and likely kickstart spending.

What is the FTSE 100?

The index is made up of many mining and international oil and gas companies, as well as household name UK banks and supermarkets.

Familiar to a UK audience are lenders such as Barclays, Natwest, HSBC and Lloyds and supermarket chains Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s.

Other well-known names include Rolls-Royce, Unilever, easyJet, BT Group and Next.

Read more:
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Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

FTSE stands for Financial Times Stock Exchange.

If a company’s share price drops significantly it can slip outside of the FTSE 100 and into the larger and more UK-based FTSE 250 index.

The inverse works for the FTSE 250 companies, the 101st to 250th most valuable firms on the London Stock Exchange. If their share price rises significantly they could move into the FTSE 100.

A good close for markets

It’s a good end of the week for markets, entirely reversing the rise in borrowing costs that plagued Chancellor Rachel Reeves for the past ten days.

Fears of long-lasting high borrowing costs drove speculation she would have to cut spending to meet self-imposed fiscal rules to balance the budget and bring down debt by 2030.

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They Treasury tries to calm market nerves late last week

Long-term government borrowing had reached a high not seen since 1998 while the benchmark 10-year cost of government borrowing, as measured by 10-year gilt yields, was at levels last seen around the 2008 financial crisis.

The gilt yield is effectively the interest rate investors demand to lend money to the UK government.

Only the pound has yet to recover the losses incurred during the market turbulence. Without that dropped price, however, the FTSE 100 record may not have happened.

Also acting to reduce sterling value is the chance of more interest rates. Currencies tend to weaken when interest rates are cut.

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Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

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Trump tariff threat prompts IMF warning ahead of inauguration

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned against the prospects of a renewed US-led trade war, just days before Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in the White House.

The world’s lender of last resort used the latest update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) to lay out a series of consequences for the global outlook in the event Mr Trump carries out his threat to impose tariffs on all imports into the United States.

Canada, Mexico, and China have been singled out for steeper tariffs that could be announced within hours of Monday’s inauguration.

Mr Trump has been clear he plans to pick up where he left off in 2021 by taxing goods coming into the country, making them more expensive, in a bid to protect US industry and jobs.

He has denied reports that a plan for universal tariffs is set to be watered down, with bond markets recently reflecting higher domestic inflation risks this year as a result.

While not calling out Mr Trump explicitly, the key passage in the IMF’s report nevertheless cautioned: “An intensification of protectionist policies… in the form of a new wave of tariffs, could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investment, reduce market efficiency, distort trade flows, and again disrupt supply chains.

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Trump’s threat of tariffs explained

“Growth could suffer in both the near and medium term, but at varying degrees across economies.”

In Europe, the EU has reason to be particularly worried about the prospect of tariffs, as the bulk of its trade with the US is in goods.

The majority of the UK’s exports are in services rather than physical products.

The IMF’s report also suggested that the US would likely suffer the least in the event that a new wave of tariffs was enacted due to underlying strengths in the world’s largest economy.

Read more: What Trump’s tariffs could mean for rest of the world

The WEO contained a small upgrade to the UK growth forecast for 2025.

It saw output growth of 1.6% this year – an increase on the 1.5% figure it predicted in October.

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What has Trump done since winning?

Economists see public sector investment by the Labour government providing a boost to growth but a more uncertain path for contributions from the private sector given the budget’s £25bn tax raid on businesses.

Business lobby groups have widely warned of a hit to investment, pay and jobs from April as a result, while major employers, such as retailers, have been most explicit on raising prices to recover some of the hit.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the IMF’s update: “The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year.

“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the Plan for Change.”

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Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

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Run of bad economic data brings end to market turbulence and interest rate benefits as three Bank cuts expected for 2025

A week of news showing the UK economy is slowing has ironically yielded a positive for mortgage holders and the broader economy itself – borrowing is now expected to become cheaper faster this year.

Traders are now pricing in three interest rate cuts in 2025, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group.

Earlier this week just two cuts were anticipated. But this changed with the release of new official statistics on contracting retail sales in the crucial Christmas trading month of December.

It firmed up the picture of a slowing economy as shrunken retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall during the quarter.

Money blog: Surprise as FTSE 100 soars to new record high

That would mean six months of no economic growth in the second half of 2024, a period that coincides with the tenure of the Labour government, despite its number one priority being economic growth.

Clearer signs of a slackening economy mean an expectation the Bank of England will bring the borrowing cost down by reducing interest rates by 0.25 percentage points at three of their eight meetings in 2025.

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How pints helped bring down inflation

If expectations prove correct by the end of the year the interest rate will be 4%, down from the current 4.75%. Those cuts are forecast to come at the June and September meetings of the Bank’s interest rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The benefits, however, will not take a year to kick in. Interest rate expectations can filter down to mortgage products on offer.

Despite the Bank of England bringing down the interest rate in November to below 5% the typical mortgage rate on offer for a two-year deal has been around 5.5% since December while the five-year hovered at about 5.3%, according to financial information company Moneyfacts.

The market has come more in line with statements from one of the Bank’s rate-setting MPC members. Professor Alan Taylor on Wednesday made the case for four cuts in 2025.

His comments came after news of lower-than-expected inflation but before GDP data – the standard measure of an economy’s value and everything it produces – came in below forecasts after two months of contraction.

News of more cuts has boosted markets.

The cost of government borrowing came down, ending a bad run for Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the government.

State borrowing costs had risen to decade-long highs putting their handling of the economy under the microscope.

The prospect of more interest rate cuts also contributed to the benchmark UK stock index the FTSE 100 reaching a new intraday high, meaning a level never before seen during trading hours. A depressed pound below $1.22, also contributed to this rise.

Similarly, falling US government borrowing has reduced UK borrowing costs after US inflation figures came in as anticipated.

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