US inflation rose 3.1% in November, stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target and bolstering the case for central bankers to keep interest rates at current levels this spring.
The Consumer Price Index — which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services — was down slightly from October’s 3.2% reading, in line with economists’ forecasts, and was its lowest monthly reading since June.
Nevertheless, it remained well above the 2% pace eyed by the Fed — a figure the US economy hasn’t seen since 2012 — as central bankers have ratcheted interest rates to a 22-year high, between 5.25% and 5.5%, in hopes of an economic slowdown.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics attributed the second consecutive month-over-month slowdown to the gasoline index, which saw a 6% decline from last month.
Core CPI a number that excludes volatile food and energy prices and serves as a closely watched gauge among policymakers for long-term trends increased 0.2% in November after rising 0.3% in October.
Per AAA figures, gas averages at about $3.14 in the US on Tuesday, down from the $3.35-per-gallon average when last month’s CPI report was released.
The shelter index, which tracks housing costs, rose 0.4%, “offsetting a decline in the gasoline index,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has kept economists guessing about whether another rate hike is impending, though central bankers themselves have even seemed to be wrestling with conflicting economic signals.
In a hawkish speech earlier this month, he insisted that central bankers will continue their tightening regime until the job is done and inflation is once again 2%.
We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so, he said during a fireside chat at Spelman College in Atlanta.
The full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt,” Powell insisted.
However, just days earlier he seemed to take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates moving forward, noting that central bankers were “proceeding carefully,” according to minutes of the Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 session, when the Fed ended up holding the benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the current 5.25% to 5.5% range.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool now projects a more than 98% chance that the Fed doesnt raise rates again this year — up from 85% last month.
Economists and prominent Wall Street executives have been worried that without a rate cut soon, the economy could be headed for a so-called “hard landing” — where interest rates are taken so high that it spurs a recession — especially following November’s strong jobs report that signaled the economy’s momentum has continued despite the Fed’s tightening cycle.
US employers added a higher-than-expected 199,000 jobs last month, well above the 180,000 jobs economists expected to be added, according to Refinitiv data.
However, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7% a sign that the economy could skirt a recession in favor of a soft landing.
Lower hiring stints combined with higher-than-expected unemployment historically signals a recession.
European leaders who make up the ‘coalition of the willing’ are set to hold a conference call on Sunday – ahead of crunch talks between Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy next week.
The coalition – co-chaired by Sir Keir Starmer, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz – has the aim of bringing countries together to protect a peace deal in Ukraine.
Top of the agenda at Sunday’s meeting will be securing a concrete commitment from Mr Trump on a security guarantee that would act as a powerful backstop in any Russia-Ukraine peacekeeping arrangement.
European leaders seemed buoyed by the US president’s most recent hints on the subject, in the knowledge that US military might is likely to deter Vladimir Putin from advancing in the future.
They will also discuss how to bring Mr Zelenskyy into talks after Mr Trump and Mr Putin’s Alaska meeting saw him left out in the cold.
Image: The Russian and US presidents met in Alaska on Friday. Pic: AP
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Pc: Reuters
In coordinated statements, European leaders said Mr Zelenskyy must play a greater role in future talks, and that peace cannot be achieved without him.
The hard bit will be to persuade the unpredictable US administration to change its approach, something that has proved almost impossible in the past.
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Trump and Putin’s body language analysed
When Mr Trump re-entered the White House and made it clear the US would no longer provide a blank cheque to protect peace in Europe, others decided they had to step up, and the ‘coalition of the willing’ was thrown together in March.
Since then, information about the allied peacekeeping effort has been patchy, but we know it includes over 30 countries, which have been asked to pledge whatever military support they can, including troops.
The Trump Administration’s “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB) is doing a lot of damage to America’s health, economy, and global standing – but one thing it certainly has not done is make it “too late” for US homeowners to benefit from a rooftop solar system.
Companies like Tesla and Rivian are reeling from the double-whammy of Trump’s BBB ending the $7,500 Federal EV tax credit early and killing the market for carbon tax credits, which provides EV car brands with hundreds of millions of dollars, almost overnight. Still another part of the bill that’s getting a lot of publicity is the death of the 30% tax credit for home solar systems at the end of 2025, which has led many Americans who have been “on the fence” about adding a solar or solar + storage solution to their home to believe they waited too long to go solar.
The good news? It’s not too late. Homeowners who get solar installed and operational by December 31st can still claim a full 30% federal tax credit for 2025, and any unused portion of that credit rolls over to the next tax year.
The better news? Even without the solar tax credit, adding a home solar system with battery backup storage can still deliver a positive ROI.
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Solar benefits go beyond tax credits
Home solar installation, via Sunrun.
The most obvious benefit of home solar plus battery storage is that you can produce your own energy (or, if you’ve been following along for a while, electric fuel) for less than it would cost you to buy that energy from your local utility. That’s been true for a while, but it’s about to become even more true.
Energy Innovation’s analysis skews left, and tends to focus on “left of zero” outcomes. Still, when the corporatist rags start quoting bad numbers and bear markets, you should probably pay attention. Some of the key takeaways of the EI study include:
Power generation capacity will fall 340 gigawatts by 2035, raising costs to meet growing demand and damaging industrial competitiveness
Wholesale electricity prices will increase 25 percent by 2030 and 74 percent by 2035; electricity rates paid by consumers will increase between 9-18 percent by 2035
Household energy costs will increase $170 annually by 2035
America loses $980 billion in cumulative GDP through the budget reconciliation window
Florida, Texas, Kentucky, and both North and South Carolina stand to be hit the hardest by rising energy costs over the next ten years
“There are more efficient ways to passively cool buildings, such as reflective roof membranes,” explains Jan Kleissl, a professor of environmental engineering at UC San Diego. “But, if you are considering installing solar photovoltaic, depending on your roof thermal properties, you can expect a large reduction in the amount of energy you use to cool your residence or business.”
What’s more, because the rising costs of energy prices are outpacing interest rates, it might even make sense to finance a solar package – but definitely don’t take my word for that. Talk to a certified financial planner or someone with a fiduciary interest in your money to work the numbers before you start signing stuff.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get any annoying calls. No will will call until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.
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