What could happen if Russia wins war in Ukraine? Experts consider the scenarios
A “battered but triumphant” Russian army amassing on NATO’s borders, posing a major military threat to the alliance for the first time in three decades?
That’s what could happen if the United States cut off military aid to Ukraine and Europe followed suit, according to a prominent thinktank.
Republicans in Washington have been holding up new funds for Kyiv over demands for border control, leading to concerns over the reliability of American support.
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Things look particularly tremulous in the context of 2024: a presidential election where the presumed challenger Donald Trump is poised to abandon both Ukraine and NATO.
So as unsavoury as the thought may be for many in the West, some attention is now turning to a possible future in which aid to Ukraine is much reduced – and what it could mean for those holding the line in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a thinktank based in Washington DC, has looked at possible scenarios that could arise.
It argues that the US has a “much higher stake” in the war than most people think.
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“A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit,” ISW writers say in their new report: The High Price of Losing Ukraine.
“Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.”
They say that Ukraine – with Western support – has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, according to US intelligence sources.
But despite these terrible casualty numbers, Russia has replaced them and is ramping up its industrial base to replenish its material losses.
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A victorious Russian army at the end of the Ukraine war, the ISW says, would be combat experienced and considerably larger than its pre-2022 forces.
Moscow’s economy would “gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode” and its military would rebuild its coherence “drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare”.
It added: “It will bring with it advanced air defence systems that only American stealth aircraft – badly needed to deter and confront China – can reliably penetrate.
“Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military.”
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The ISW argues NATO’s military potential is much greater than that of Russia – even if it fully absorbs Ukraine and Belarus.
But, it says, the costs of allowing Russia to win in Ukraine are “higher than most people imagine”.
The ISW argues:
• The US would have to deploy a “sizeable portion” of its ground forces to eastern Europe
• The US could face a “terrible choice” between keeping enough stealth aircraft in Asia to defend Taiwan and stationing them in Europe to support allies against any Russian aggression
A Ukrainian tank near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
The thinktank’s report says: “Helping Ukraine keep the lines where they are through continuous Western military support is far more advantageous and cheaper for the United States than allowing Ukraine to lose.”
A ceasefire that “freezes” the conflict would give Russia time and space to prepare for a new war, it adds
The more territory Ukraine is able to regain, the further to the east it would push the Kremlin’s forces.
Best of all, the ISW says, would be supporting Ukraine to victory and then helping it rebuild.
This would put the “largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent” at the forefront of NATO’s defence, according to the thinktank.
“A victorious Ukraine would not be a permanent ward of the West,” it says, arguing that restored to its 1991 borders its economy is big enough to support its own military.
A new aid system has opened its first distribution centres in Gaza, according to a US-backed organisation dealing with supplies.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began its operations in the territory on Monday, following the resignation of its director, Jake Wood, over its independence.
Gaza’s 2.3m population has been pushed towards famine by Israel’s almost three-month blockade.
Boxes of aid to be distributed across Rafah. Pic: Reuters.
The GHF said lorryloads of food – it did not say how many – had been delivered to its hubs, and distribution to Palestinians had begun.
“More trucks with aid will be delivered tomorrow, with the flow of aid increasing each day,” it said in a statement.
The controversial group, backed by Israel and the United States, has been rejected by the United Nations and other aid groups.
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People line up for food in Gaza
UN agencies and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the GHF.
They claim Israel is weaponising food, and the new distribution system will be ineffective and lead to further displacement of Palestinians.
They also argue the GHF will fail to meet local needs, and violates humanitarian principles that prohibit a warring party from controlling humanitarian assistance.
In the meantime, scores of Palestinians in Gaza, like Islam Abu Taima, have resorted to searching through rubbish to find food.
Palestinians are having to search through rubbish to find food
She found a small pile of cooked rice, scraps of bread, and a box with a few pieces of cheese inside it – which she said she will serve to her five children.
“We’re dying of hunger,” she told the Associated Press news agency.
“If we don’t eat, we’ll die.”
Islam Abu Taeima finds a piece of bread in a pile of rubbish in Gaza City. Pic: AP.
It is unclear how many of the GHF’s aid trucks will enter Gaza.
It claims it will reach one million Palestinians by the end of the week.
There are questions, however, over who is funding it and how it will work.
Trucks transporting aid for Palestinians in Rafah. Pic: Reuters.
It has been set up as part of an Israeli plan – rather than a UN distribution effort.
Israel, which suggested a similar plan earlier this year, has said it will not be involved in distributing the aid but supported the plan and would provide security.
It says aid deliveries into Gaza are taken by Hamas instead of going to civilians.
Aid groups, however, say there is no evidence of this happening on a systemic basis.
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Israel began to allow a limited amount of food into Gaza last week – after a blockade that prevented food, medicine, fuel and other goods from entering the Palestinian enclave.
A letter has been signed by hundreds of judges and lawyers calling on the UK government to impose trade sanctions on Israel.
It also calls for Israeli ministers to be sanctioned and the suspension of Israel from the UN over “serious breaches of international law”.
“Genocide is being perpetrated in Gaza or that, at a minimum, there is a serious risk of genocide,” the letter says.
The Israeli government has repeatedly dismissed allegations of genocide in Gaza.
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More than 52,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched its ground invasion of Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, following the deadly attacks by the militant group on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and saw around 250 people taken hostage.
The health ministry’s figures do not differentiate between civilians and fighters in Gaza.
King Charles and Queen Camilla are being urged to use their visit to Canada to seek an apology for the abuse of British children.
Campaigners have called on them to pursue an apology for the “dire circumstances” suffered by so-called “Home Children” over decades.
More than 100,000 were shipped from orphan homes in the UK to Canada between 1869 and 1948 with many used as cheap labour, typically as farm workers and domestic servants. Many were subject to mistreatment and abuse.
Canada has resisted calls to follow the UK and Australia in apologising for its involvement in child migrant schemes.
King Charles and Mark Carney on Monday. Pic: PA
Campaigners for the Home Children say the royal visit presents a “great opportunity” for a change of heart.
“I would ask that King Charles uses his trip to request an apology,” John Jefkins told Sky News.
John’s father Bert was one of 115,000 British Home Children transported to Canada, arriving in 1914 with his brother Reggie.
“It’s really important for the Home Children themselves and for their descendants,” John said.
“It’s something we deserve and it’s really important for the healing process, as well as building awareness of the experience of the Home Children.
“They were treated very, very badly by the Canadian government at the time. A lot of them were abused, they were treated horribly. They were second-class citizens, lepers in a way.”
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John Jefkins
John added: “I think the King’s visit provides a great opportunity to reinforce our campaign and to pursue an apology because we’re part of the Commonwealth and King Charles is a new Head of the Commonwealth meeting a new Canadian prime minister. It’s a chance, for both, to look at the situation with a fresh eye.
“There’s much about this visit that looks on our sovereignty and who we are as Canadians, rightly so.
“I think it’s also right that in contemplating the country we built, we focus on the people who built it, many in the most trying of circumstances.”
The issue was addressed by the then Prince of Wales during a tour of Canada in May 2022. He said at the time: “We must find new ways to come to terms with the darker and more difficult aspects of the past.”
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King Charles and Queen Camilla are on a two-day visit to Canada.
On Tuesday, the King will deliver the Speech from the Throne to open the 45th session of Canada’s parliament.
Camilla was made Patron of Barnardo’s in 2016. The organisation sent tens of thousands of Home Children to Canada. She took on the role, having served as president since 2007.
Buckingham Palace has been contacted for comment.
A spokesperson for the Canadian government said: “The government of Canada is committed to keeping the memory of the British Home Children alive.
“Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada deeply regrets this unjust and discriminatory policy, which was in place from 1869 to 1948. Such an approach would have no place in modern Canada, and we must learn from past mistakes.”
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