A “battered but triumphant” Russian army amassing on NATO’s borders, posing a major military threat to the alliance for the first time in three decades?
That’s what could happen if the United States cut off military aid to Ukraine and Europe followed suit, according to a prominent thinktank.
Things look particularly tremulous in the context of 2024: a presidential election where the presumed challenger Donald Trump is poised to abandon both Ukraine and NATO.
So as unsavoury as the thought may be for many in the West, some attention is now turning to a possible future in which aid to Ukraine is much reduced – and what it could mean for those holding the line in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a thinktank based in Washington DC, has looked at possible scenarios that could arise.
It argues that the US has a “much higher stake” in the war than most people think.
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“A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit,” ISW writers say in their new report: The High Price of Losing Ukraine.
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“Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.”
They say that Ukraine – with Western support – has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, according to US intelligence sources.
But despite these terrible casualty numbers, Russia has replaced them and is ramping up its industrial base to replenish its material losses.
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A victorious Russian army at the end of the Ukraine war, the ISW says, would be combat experienced and considerably larger than its pre-2022 forces.
Moscow’s economy would “gradually recover as sanctions inevitably erode” and its military would rebuild its coherence “drawing on a wealth of hard-won experience fighting mechanized warfare”.
It added: “It will bring with it advanced air defence systems that only American stealth aircraft – badly needed to deter and confront China – can reliably penetrate.
“Russia can pose a major conventional military threat to NATO for the first time since the 1990s in a timeframe set to a considerable extent by how much the Kremlin invests in its military.”
The ISW argues NATO’s military potential is much greater than that of Russia – even if it fully absorbs Ukraine and Belarus.
But, it says, the costs of allowing Russia to win in Ukraine are “higher than most people imagine”.
The ISW argues:
• The US would have to deploy a “sizeable portion” of its ground forces to eastern Europe
• The US could face a “terrible choice” between keeping enough stealth aircraft in Asia to defend Taiwan and stationing them in Europe to support allies against any Russian aggression
Image: A Ukrainian tank near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
The thinktank’s report says: “Helping Ukraine keep the lines where they are through continuous Western military support is far more advantageous and cheaper for the United States than allowing Ukraine to lose.”
A ceasefire that “freezes” the conflict would give Russia time and space to prepare for a new war, it adds
The more territory Ukraine is able to regain, the further to the east it would push the Kremlin’s forces.
Best of all, the ISW says, would be supporting Ukraine to victory and then helping it rebuild.
This would put the “largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent” at the forefront of NATO’s defence, according to the thinktank.
“A victorious Ukraine would not be a permanent ward of the West,” it says, arguing that restored to its 1991 borders its economy is big enough to support its own military.
Pakistan says it has been targeted in a missile attack by India.
Three missiles were fired by India across the border into Pakistani-controlled territory, said Pakistani security officials.
They hit locations in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and in the country’s eastern Punjab province, according to officials.
The Indian defence ministry said it had launched Operation Sindoor as it struck “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir “from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed”.
It said a total of nine sites were targeted.
A Pakistan military spokesman said the country will respond to the attacks.
Tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours have been escalating following a militant gun attack in the disputed area of Kashmir last month.
At least 26 people, most of whom were Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen at a beauty spot near the resort town of Pahalgam in the Indian-controlled part of the region on 22 April.
India described the massacre as a “terror attack” and said it had “cross border” links, blaming Pakistan for backing it.
Pakistan denied any connection to the atrocity, which was claimed by a previously unknown militant group called the Kashmir Resistance.
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24 April: Pakistani minister warns ‘all-out war’ possible
Since the attack, Pakistan’s military has been on high alert after a cabinet minister said Islamabad had credible intelligence indicating that India could attack.
And Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Asif told Sky News’ The World With Yalda Hakim that the world should be “worried” about the prospect of a full-scale conflict involving the two nations.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.
Friedrich Merz has become Germany’s new chancellor after winning a second vote in the country’s parliament.
He unexpectedly failed in the first parliamentary ballot on Tuesday morning – the first time a chancellor has failed to be elected at the first attempt since the Second World War.
Initially, needing a majority of 316 out of 630 votes in a secret ballot, he received 310 – falling short by just six votes. On the second ballot he managed 325.
It means Mr Merz, the leader of the country’s CDU/CSU conservatives, has become the 10th chancellor since the end of the Second World War.
Image: Friedrich Merz during his swearing in ceremony. Pic: Reuters
He had been expected to win comfortably after securing a coalition deal with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).
It meant at least 18 coalition MPs failed to back him in the first round of voting.
Announcing the second vote, Jens Spahn, the head of the Union bloc in parliament, said: “The whole of Europe, perhaps even the whole world, is watching this second round of elections.”
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Earlier, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Alice Weidel, said on X that Mr Merz’s failure to secure a majority in the first round showed the “weak foundation” on which his coalition was built, adding that it had been “voted out by the voters”.
Mr Merz, 69, succeeds Olaf Scholz and has vowed to prioritise European unity and the continent’s security.
Image: Mr Merz (R) shakes hands with outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz (L). Pic: Reuters
His in-tray includes the Ukraine war and global tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent congratulations to Mr Merz and wished him “every success”.
The Ukrainian president added that the future of Europe was “at stake” and security will “depend on our unity”.
Mr Merz will also have to decide what to do about the AfD, which mainstream parties have refused to work with.
A “firewall” against collaborating with strongly right-wing parties has been in place since the end of the war.
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The AfD is the second largest party in the lower house of the Bundestag and was officially designated as extremist last week by Germany’s domestic spy agency.
The writer of Conclave has said he believes the role of women in the Catholic Church will be a “big issue” for the next pope.
Robert Harris, whose papal novel became a hit film, said the approach of Francis‘s successor would be crucial and was a “profoundly political moment for the world”.
Speaking on The News Hour with Mark Austin, he said he had been struck by how the gospels’ teachings, such as the “necessity to get rid of all worldly wealth”, appeared at odds with the grandeur associated with the papacy.
“When I compared that to the reality of the Vatican, it’s hard not to be struck by the contrast,” he said.
“And in particular, in the 21st century, can it really be the case that Christ did not intend half the world’s population to play a full role in spreading his word?”
“I don’t see how this cannot be the issue facing the church over the next few years,” Harris added.
“The Jewish faith has female rabbis, the Anglicans have female bishops; can it really be the case that Roman Catholics cannot allow the ordination of women?
“Maybe they won’t – but I cannot help but believe it will be a big issue,” said Harris.
Catholicism does not allow women to become priests – a principle confirmed by Pope John Paul II in 1994 when he said the church had “no authority whatsoever to confer priestly ordination on women”.
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How is a new pope chosen?
Harris said he had deliberately included the pivotal character of Sister Agnes in his story to “give some voice to these women” – who otherwise are shown looking after the cardinals during the film.
The secretive process to elect a new pope begins for real in the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday when 133 cardinals begin the first round of voting amid tight security.
All eyes will be on the lookout for the white smoke that signals they have reached a decision.
Image: Harris’s book dramatising the conclave was made into a successful film. Pic Rex Features
The author, a former political journalist, told Sky News his research for the book included speaking to a cardinal who had taken part in the conclave.
He said the protocols portrayed by the likes of Ralph Fiennes in the movie were all true to life and set out by the Vatican.
However, he added: “I’m dramatising something, trying to make it entertaining, so I doubt whether the conclave will be so full of skulduggery as the novel and film.”
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Harris said the election of the new pope – which requires a two-thirds majority – made it a political as well as spiritual exercise for the cardinals.
He agreed the battle is likely to be between traditionalist cardinals and those who want to continue Francis’s more informal, progressive approach.
Image: The cardinals will take their seats in the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday. Pic: Vatican Media/Reuters
Harris said the first South American pope “put a lot of noses out of joint in the grander bureaucracy of the church”.
“Francis really laid down a marker to the old guard,” he told Sky News.
“He didn’t move into the papal apartments, he refused the elaborate papal cars – he wanted a little ordinary car to go around in; he used to dine in the cafeteria at nights with the nuns who run the Casa Santa Marta.”
If Francis’s successor reverts to convention and moves back into the Apostolic Palace, Harris said it would be an “indication of the direction the new pope will take the church”.
Image: The ‘Room of Tears’ where the new pope will don the white vestments for the first time. Pic: Vatican Media/Reuters
Among the favourites to lead the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics is Luis Tagle, a cardinal who could become the first Asian pope, and who has been likened to Pope Francis.
Two Italians are also seen as strong contenders: The Archbishop of Bologna, Matteo Zuppi, and the so-called “deputy pope” Pietro Parolin.
Harris said whatever approach the new pontiff takes – whether a liberal interpretation or more conservative – would have a real impact on some of today’s most contentious issues, such as assisted dying for example.
“These crucial political decisions are greatly affected by the Roman Catholic Church,” said Harris.
“The church is an immensely wealthy, powerful institution that reaches into all areas of society, whether you’re Catholic or not. So this is a profoundly political moment for the world.”