The gulf between the US and the Israeli government visions for “the day after” in Gaza seems to be widening by the day.
In his Saturday news conference, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed, again, a two-state solution and insisted Israel will have enduring security control in Gaza.
In doing so, he undermined the alliance through which America is backing Israel’s military operation in Gaza.
The Biden administration has repeatedly defined its backing of Israel as being to support its right to self-defence by eradicating Hamas in order to establish a viable pathway to two states.
America’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has just left Israel where we are told he reiterated America’s desire for a Palestinian/Arab-led security structure in Gaza when the war is over, and for the establishment of a “two-state solution” soon thereafter.
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Mr Sullivan talked of a Palestinian-led “nucleus” for the security question in Gaza and even discussed West Bank-based Palestinian units that could have a key role.
A senior US administration official said late on Thursday night after Sullivan’s meeting with Netanyahu: “There are a number of security personnel linked to the Palestinian Authority, which we think might be able to provide some sort of a nucleus in the many months following the overall military campaign, but this is something we are discussing with the Palestinians and with the Israelis, and with regional partners…”
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2:36
Signs of US-Israel rift over Gaza
The official also insisted repeatedly that President Biden’s view was that the only option for the future was a two-state solution with the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank.
The US official, on a background call with journalists, described the US vision as “…the type of future that everybody wants to see which is a path, a pathway ultimately, to a viable, two-state solution in which Israel’s security is guaranteed and the aspirations of the Palestinian people can be met.”
And yet this weekend, not only has the Israeli Prime Minister brazenly lauded his own efforts to prevent a Palestinian State over the years, but he is insisting that Israel will have enduring security control over Gaza.
“Nobody else can ensure that there will be a peaceful regime,” Netanyahu said.
He is repeating messages his ministers and ambassadors have been issuing, rejecting the two-state solution. Netanyahu has often danced around the issue giving vague definitions of what it would look like.
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3:00
Analysis: Two-state solution rejected
The point now is this: at the very moment where alignment is required, and where it’s surely important for the messaging from the top of the Israeli government to match that at the top of the American government, Netanyahu is choosing instead to be provocatively contrary.
Indeed, this past week, I asked US State Department spokesman Matt Miller about the Israeli Ambassador to the UK’s rejection of the two-state solution.
His response suggested he thought she was an outlier and that there were a variety of views. Clearly that variety doesn’t stretch to the man running the war which America is fuelling.
New leaders
Ultimately American policy relies on an urgent change at the top of both the Israeli and the Palestinian leadership.
For Israel, the Americans want Netanyahu out. It’s telling that Sullivan saw opposition leader Benny Gantz for a lengthy meeting on Thursday.
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Netanyahu will surely do all he can to hang on, largely to avoid a reckoning over the failures which led to the 7 October nightmare. He’d probably be glad to see his old pal Donald Trump back in the White House too. And so the master of political manoeuvring will try to hang on.
As for the Palestinians? Well, the Americans talk about a “revitalised Palestinian Authority” capable of running Gaza. What they actually mean by that is the retirement of aging and deeply unpopular Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. They want a younger and more visionary leader to replace him. But who, and how?
The Israelis are likely to focus more on the “day after” in Gaza once they have demonstrated some strategic success on the battlefield. They have razed the strip and nearly 20,000 people are dead. But the Hamas leadership remains at large. Netanyahu needs a “prize” so he can wind back the brutal war.
But the longer the war drags on, the harder the “day after” will be to mould. With the shock and pain of the last 70 days, reconciliation and coexistence firmly feel more distant than ever for this region.
Donald Trump’s trade war has expanded to cover the world, with 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the US in effect from today.
The duties were announced in mid-February as stock market investors cheered President Trump‘s ‘America first’ agenda which saw only Mexico, Canada and China come under initial pressure.
While two rounds of tariffs on China have been enacted, 25% duties on some Canadian and most Mexican cross-border trade have been withdrawn until 2 April at the earliest.
The tariffs beginning today are designed to protect US manufacturing and bolster jobs by making foreign-made products less attractive.
They threaten to make the cost of things like cars to soft drink cans – and therefore some drinks – more expensive.
Canada is the biggest exporter of both steel and aluminium to America. However, the White House on Tuesday rowed back on a threat to double the country’s tariff to 50%.
The EU is to retaliate with €26bn of counter tariffs on US goods starting from 1 April, the European Commission said on Wednesday morning.
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Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said she remained open to “meaningful dialogue” with the US.
During Mr Trump’s first term, the bloc countered with charges on products such as bourbon and jeans.
The American tariffs are also a threat to UK steel exports – worth north of £350m annually – with the bulk of that coming from stainless steel.
The business secretary Jonathan Reynolds confirmed on Wednesday morning that while he was disappointed, there would be no immediate retaliation by the UK government as negotiations continue over a wider trade deal with the US.
“I will continue to engage closely and productively with the US to press the case for UK business interests,” he said.
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1:04
Feb: Prices to rise for planes, trains and automobiles
Any fall in demand among US customers will leave producers scrambling for new markets, though some could be directed to domestic projects within the UK.
That steel could prove attractive as China, the world’s largest producer of steel, has threatened to limit its exports in response to the Trump tariffs.
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0:54
Carney: ‘Canada will win’
President Trump is under growing pressure to row back, particularly in his planned battle with nearest neighbours Mexico and Canada.
Markets have turned on the tariff regime, with jitters about the effects of higher import prices souring the US economy first being seen through the currency and bond markets.
The dollar has lost around five cents against both the pound and a resurgent euro alone in the past few weeks.
Stock markets have joined in, with the combined market value of the broad S&P 500’s constituent companies down by more than $4trn on the peak seen just last month.
The big fear is that the protectionism will push the world’s largest economy into recession – a scenario Mr Trump did not deny was possible during a weekend interview.
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US firms, already also grappling the complexities associated with an expanding tariff regime, are also letting it be known that they expect damage to their own businesses.
Delta Airlines lowered its first quarter growth forecast on the back of the turmoil this week while US firms are increasingly facing product boycotts.
Travel bodies have also reported a big drop in the number of Canadians crossing the US border, with road trips down by almost a quarter last month compared to February 2023 according to Statistics Canada.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy is ready to accept a ceasefire deal – as the US says it has immediately resumed intelligence sharing and military aid with Ukraine.
In a post on Telegram after US and Ukrainian officials met in Saudi Arabia, Mr Zelenskyy said “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals” – and that Kyiv “accepts” the US proposal of a full 30-day ceasefire with Russia.
“I want to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” he said.
“Today, in the conversation, the American side proposed to take the first step immediately and try to establish a full ceasefire for 30 days, not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line.
“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, and we are ready to take this step.”
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he is ready to accept the US’ 30-day ceasefire proposal. Pic: Saudi Press Agency / Reuters
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20:04
Ukraine agrees 30-day ceasefire
‘Ukraine is ready for peace’
The Ukrainian president then said the US “must convince Russia to do this” and that “if the Russians agree – that’s when the silence will work”.
He added: “An important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support.
“Ukraine is ready for peace. Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it.
“The time has come for the full truth. I thank everyone who helps Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, in a joint statement with Kyiv following nine-hour-long talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said it will immediately lift the pause on intelligence-sharing and military aid.
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4:58
Analysis: A pause in aid for Ukraine
‘Ball is now in Russia’s court’
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, also told reporters that “the ball is now in Russia’s court” after meeting with the Ukrainian delegation.
After the positive talks, Mr Rubio said “we’re going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.
“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”
Image: ‘The ball is now in Russia’s court’ to agree to a ceasefire, Marco Rubio (R) said. Pic: Reuters
He then said that while no deadline has been set, he hopes a deal can be reached “as soon as possible” and that “this is serious stuff, this is not Mean Girls, this is not some episode of some television show”.
“The number one goodwill gesture we could see from the Russians is to see the Ukrainian offer and reciprocate it with a yes,” Mr Rubio added.
National security adviser Mike Waltz also added it is “very clear” that Kyiv shares Donald Trump’s vision for peace and that “they share his determination to end the fighting”.
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Over in the US, Mr Trump said that officials will meet with Russia either today or tomorrow and confirmed he would invite Mr Zelenskyy back to the White House.
“We want to get the Ukraine war over with,” the US president said, before saying he hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.
He also told reporters he thinks he will talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week – but warned “it takes two to tango”.
Image: Donald Trump said ‘we want to get the Ukraine war over with’. Pic: Reuters
US vice president JD Vancetold the Ukrainian president “you should be thanking” Mr Trump “for trying to bring an end to this conflict,” sparking a tense 10-minute back-and-forth.
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0:42
From February: What happened when Trump met Zelenskyy?
A press conference with the two leaders and the signing of an agreement was then cancelled.
Following a meeting with Kyiv officials in Saudi Arabia, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told reporters “the ball is now in Russia’s court” and the next step is for Moscow to agree to terms.
US President Donald Trump said “we want to get the Ukraine war over with” and hopes to have a total ceasefire in the coming days.
But what has been agreed by the US and Ukraine? Here’s what we know so far…
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1:16
‘Do you think you’ll get a ceasefire?’
Straight after the nine-hour talks in Jeddah, the US State Department said Washington would immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine.
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Mr Zelenskyy confirmed in his post that an “important element of today’s conversation is America’s readiness to restore defensive assistance to Ukraine, as well as intelligence support”.
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4:58
Analysis: A pause in aid for Ukraine
As part of their plan, the US said both sides should agree to an immediate 30-day ceasefire which could then be mutually extended.
A joint statement from the US and Ukraineadded that Washington “will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace”.
The Ukrainian president added that the proposal was “not only concerning rockets, drones, and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line” – although the official statement does not mention this.
The statement also makes no mention of territory – despite Ukraine previously calling for Russia to return occupied lands, and the US saying Kyiv might have to concede territory – or the foreign deployment of soldiers in Ukraine for peacekeeping.
The joint statement does say officials discussed aid efforts as part of the peace process, including “the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian detainees, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children”.
Ukraine also reiterated that European partners would be involved in the peace process, and both countries agreed a deal on Kyiv’s minerals and rare earths should “conclude as soon as possible”.
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2:32
How many critical minerals does Ukraine have?
What has Ukraine said?
Mr Zelenskyy said Ukraine agrees to the terms, adding that “the American side understands our arguments” and “accepts our proposals”.
He then said he wanted “to thank President Trump for the constructiveness of the conversation between our teams,” before adding: “Ukraine is ready for peace.
“Russia must show whether it is ready to stop the war or continue it. The time has come for the full truth.”
Image: Zelenskyy met with Saudi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before the US delegation arrived. Pic: Saudi Press Agency / Reuters
Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha – who was in Jeddah for the talks – called the meeting a step forward “both on the path to peace and in developing the strategic Ukraine-US partnership” on social media.
And speaking to Sky News’ Mark Austin, Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko added that “we will have to wait and see what comes of it” but that “clearly it’s good news”.
“On first glance it’s amazing,” she said. “If we can get the Russians to agree to a ceasefire for 30 days, then our soldiers on the frontline will have a break…”
However, she said: “In previous years [Russia has] shown an absolute inability to understand what a ceasefire is and to stick to the basic rules of a ceasefire – which means not firing any weapons.”
Mr Rubio said the next step is “going to take the offer” to Russia, adding: “We’re going to tell them this is what’s on the table, Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking, and now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no.
“I hope they’re going to say yes, and if they do then I think we made great progress.”
Mr Trump echoed this outside the White House, saying Ukraine has agreed to the “total ceasefire” and that “hopefully Russia will agree to it”.
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0:28
‘I’ll talk to Vladimir Putin’
He added that he will speak to Vladimir Putin in the coming days, warning the Russian president that “it takes two to tango”.
How has Russia reacted?
So far, there’s been no official reaction to the proposal other than to acknowledge Mr Trump’s comments about talks within the next week.
But ahead of the breakthrough talks in Jeddah, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Mr Zelenskyy does not want peace.
According to state news agency TASS, Mr Lavrov added: “Mr Zelenskyy publicly declares that he does not want any ceasefire unless the Americans provide him with assurances that they will launch a nuclear strike on Russia if necessary.
“He frames the issue in much the same manner. For now, [a peace talk] is not serious.”
Mr Zelenskyy has not called for the US to strike Russia with nuclear weapons, but did say last month that Ukraine should be given them if talks on joining NATO are protracted for years.