The techno-optimists and doomsdayers inside Silicon Valley’s most dangerous AI debate
WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 13: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman speaks with reporters on his arrival to the Senate bipartisan Artificial Intelligence (AI) Insight Forum on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on September 13, 2023. (Photo by Elizabeth Frantz for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
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Now more than a year after ChatGPT’s introduction, the biggest AI story of 2023 may have turned out to be less the technology itself than the drama in the OpenAI boardroom over its rapid advancement. During the ousting, and subsequent reinstatement, of Sam Altman as CEO, the underlying tension for generative artificial intelligence going into 2024 is clear: AI is at the center of a huge divide between those who are fully embracing its rapid pace of innovation and those who want it to slow down due to the many risks involved.
The debate — known within tech circles as e/acc vs. decels — has been making the rounds in Silicon Valley since 2021. But as AI grows in power and influence, it’s increasingly important to understand both sides of the divide.
Here’s a primer on the key terms and some of the prominent players shaping AI’s future.
e/acc and techno-optimism
The term “e/acc” stands for effective accelerationism.
In short, those who are pro-e/acc want technology and innovation to be moving as fast as possible.
“Technocapital can usher in the next evolution of consciousness, creating unthinkable next-generation lifeforms and silicon-based awareness,” the backers of the concept explained in the first-ever post about e/acc.
In terms of AI, it is “artificial general intelligence”, or AGI, that underlies debate here. AGI is a super-intelligent AI that is so advanced it can do things as well or better than humans. AGIs can also improve themselves, creating an endless feedback loop with limitless possibilities.
Some think that AGIs will have the capabilities to the end of the world, becoming so intelligent that they figure out how to eradicate humanity. But e/acc enthusiasts choose to focus on the benefits that an AGI can offer. “There is nothing stopping us from creating abundance for every human alive other than the will to do it,” the founding e/acc substack explained.
The founders of the e/acc started have been shrouded in mystery. But @basedbeffjezos, arguably the biggest proponent of e/acc, recently revealed himself to be Guillaume Verdon after his identity was exposed by the media.
Verdon, who formerly worked for Alphabet, X, and Google, is now working on what he calls the “AI Manhattan project” and said on X that “this is not the end, but a new beginning for e/acc. One where I can step up and make our voice heard in the traditional world beyond X, and use my credentials to provide backing for our community’s interests.”
Verdon is also the founder of Extropic, a tech startup which he described as “building the ultimate substrate for Generative AI in the physical world by harnessing thermodynamic physics.”
An AI manifesto from a top VC
One of the most prominent e/acc supporters is venture capitalist Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz, who previously called Verdon the “patron saint of techno-optimism.”
Techno-optimism is exactly what it sounds like: believers think more technology will ultimately make the world a better place. Andreessen wrote the Techno-Optimist Manifesto, a 5,000-plus word statement that explains how technology will empower humanity and solve all of its material problems. Andreessen even goes as far as to say that “any deceleration of AI will cost lives,” and it would be a “form of murder” not to develop AI enough to prevent deaths.
Another techno-optimist piece he wrote called Why AI Will Save the World was reposted by Yann LeCun, Chief AI Scientist at Meta, who is known as one of the “godfathers of AI” after winning the prestigious Turing Prize for his breakthroughs in AI.
Yann LeCun, chief AI scientist at Meta, speaks at the Viva Tech conference in Paris, June 13, 2023.
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LeCun labels himself on X as a “humanist who subscribes to both Positive and Normative forms of Active Techno-Optimism.”
LeCun, who recently said that he doesn’t expect AI “super-intelligence” to arrive for quite some time, has served as a vocal counterpoint in public to those who he says “doubt that current economic and political institutions, and humanity as a whole, will be capable of using [AI] for good.”
Meta’s embrace of open-source AI underlies Lecun’s belief that the technology will offer more potential than harm, while others have pointed to the dangers of a business model like Meta’s which is pushing for widely available gen AI models being placed in the hands of many developers.
AI alignment and deceleration
In March, an open letter by Encode Justice and the Future of Life Institute called for “all AI labs to immediately pause for at least six months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.”
The letter was endorsed by prominent figures in tech, such as Elon Musk and Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman addressed the letter back in April at an MIT event, saying, “I think moving with caution and an increasing rigor for safety issues is really important. The letter I don’t think was the optimal way to address it.”
Altman was caught up in the battle anew when the OpenAI boardroom drama played out and original directors of the nonprofit arm of OpenAI grew concerned about the rapid rate of progress and its stated mission “to ensure that artificial general intelligence — AI systems that are generally smarter than humans — benefits all of humanity.”
Some of the ideas from the open letter are key to decels, supporters of AI deceleration. Decels want progress to slow down because the future of AI is risky and unpredictable, and one of their biggest concerns is AI alignment.
The AI alignment problem tackles the idea that AI will eventually become so intelligent that humans won’t be able to control it.
“Our dominance as a species, driven by our relatively superior intelligence, has led to harmful consequences for other species, including extinction, because our goals are not aligned with theirs. We control the future — chimps are in zoos. Advanced AI systems could similarly impact humanity,” said Malo Bourgon, CEO of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.
AI alignment research, such as MIRI’s, aims to train AI systems to “align” them with the goals, morals, and ethics of humans, which would prevent any existential risks to humanity. “The core risk is in creating entities much smarter than us with misaligned objectives whose actions are unpredictable and uncontrollable,” Bourgon said.
Government and AI’s end-of-the-world issue
Christine Parthemore, CEO of the Council on Strategic Risks and a former Pentagon official, has devoted her career to de-risking dangerous situations, and she recently told CNBC that when we consider the “mass scale death” AI could cause if used to oversee nuclear weapons, it is an issue that requires immediate attention.
But “staring at the problem” won’t do any good, she stressed. “The whole point is addressing the risks and finding solution sets that are most effective,” she said. “It’s dual-use tech at its purist,” she added. “There is no case where AI is more of a weapon than a solution.” For example, large language models will become virtual lab assistants and accelerate medicine, but also help nefarious actors identify the best and most transmissible pathogens to use for attack. This is among the reasons AI can’t be stopped, she said. “Slowing down is not part of the solution set,” Parthemore said.
Earlier this year, her former employer the DoD said in its use of AI systems there will always be a human in the loop. That’s a protocol she says should be adopted everywhere. “The AI itself cannot be the authority,” she said. “It can’t just be, ‘the AI says X.’ … We need to trust the tools, or we should not be using them, but we need to contextualize. … There is enough general lack of understanding about this toolset that there is a higher risk of overconfidence and overreliance.”
Government officials and policymakers have started taking note of these risks. In July, the Biden-Harris administration announced that it secured voluntary commitments from AI giants Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI to “move towards safe, secure, and transparent development of AI technology.”
Just a few weeks ago, President Biden issued an executive order that further established new standards for AI safety and security, though stakeholders group across society are concerned about its limitations. Similarly, the U.K. government introduced the AI Safety Institute in early November, which is the first state-backed organization focusing on navigating AI.
Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (L) attends an in-conversation event with X (formerly Twitter) CEO Elon Musk (R) in London on November 2, 2023, following the UK Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Summit. (Photo by Kirsty Wigglesworth / POOL / AFP) (Photo by KIRSTY WIGGLESWORTH/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Kirsty Wigglesworth | Afp | Getty Images
Amid the global race for AI supremacy, and links to geopolitical rivalry, China is implementing its own set of AI guardrails.
Responsible AI promises and skepticism
OpenAI is currently working on Superalignment, which aims to “solve the core technical challenges of superintelligent alignment in four years.”
At Amazon’s recent Amazon Web Services re:Invent 2023 conference, it announced new capabilities for AI innovation alongside the implementation of responsible AI safeguards across the organization.
“I often say it’s a business imperative, that responsible AI shouldn’t be seen as a separate workstream but ultimately integrated into the way in which we work,” says Diya Wynn, the responsible AI lead for AWS.
According to a study commissioned by AWS and conducted by Morning Consult, responsible AI is a growing business priority for 59% of business leaders, with about half (47%) planning on investing more in responsible AI in 2024 than they did in 2023.
Although factoring in responsible AI may slow down AI’s pace of innovation, teams like Wynn’s see themselves as paving the way towards a safer future. “Companies are seeing value and beginning to prioritize responsible AI,” Wynn said, and as a result, “systems are going to be safer, secure, [and more] inclusive.”
Bourgon isn’t convinced and says actions like those recently announced by governments are “far from what will ultimately be required.”
He predicts that it’s likely for AI systems to advance to catastrophic levels as early as 2030, and governments need to be prepared to indefinitely halt AI systems until leading AI developers can “robustly demonstrate the safety of their systems.”
In this photo illustration, the Bluesky Social logo is displayed on a cell phone in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on September 4, 2024.
Mauro Pimentel | AFP | Getty Images
Micro-blogging startup Bluesky has gained over 1.25 million new users in the past week, indicating some social media users are changing their habits following the U.S. presidential election.
Bluesky’s influx of users shows that the app has been able to pitch itself as an alternative to X, formerly Twitter, which is owned by Elon Musk, as well as Meta’s Threads. The bulk of the new users are coming from the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom, the company said Wednesday.
“We’re excited to welcome everyone looking for a better social media experience,” Bluesky CEO Jay Graber told CNBC in a statement.
Despite the surge of users, Bluesky’s total base remains a fraction of its rivals’. The Seattle startup claims 15.2 million total users. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in October said Threads had nearly 275 million monthly users. Musk in May claimed that X had 600 million monthly users, but market intelligence firm Sensor Tower pegged X’s monthly base at 318 million users in October.
Created in 2019 as a project inside Twitter, when Jack Dorsey was still CEO, Bluesky doesn’t show ads and has yet to develop a business model. It became an independent company in 2021. Dorsey said in May of this year that he’s no longer a member of Bluesky’s board.
“Journalists, politicians, and news junkies have also been talking up Bluesky as a better X alternative than Threads,” wrote Similarweb, the internet traffic and monitoring service, in a Tuesday blog.
Some users with new Bluesky accounts posted that they had moved to the service due to Musk and his support for President-elect Donald Trump.
“It’s appalling that Elon Musk has transformed Twitter into a Trump propaganda machine, rife with disinformation and misinformation,” one user posted on Bluesky.
This is Bluesky’s second notable surge in the last couple of months.
Bluesky said it picked up 2 million new users in September after the Brazilian Supreme Court suspended X in the country for failing to comply with regional content moderation policies and not appointing a local representative.
Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins speaks at The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival in New York on May 21, 2024.
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Cisco reported a fourth straight quarter of declining revenue even as results topped analysts’ estimates. The stock slipped 2.5% in extended trading.
Here’s how the company did in comparison with LSEG consensus:
- Earnings per share: 91 cents adjusted vs. 87 cents expected
- Revenue: $13.84 billion vs. $13.77 billion expected
Cisco’s revenue dropped 6% in the quarter ended Oct. 26, from $14.7 billion a year earlier, according to a statement. Net income fell to $2.71 billion, or 68 cents per share, from $3.64 billion, or 89 cents per share, in the same quarter a year ago.
Networking revenue plunged 23% to $6.75 billion, slightly below the $6.8 billion consensus of analysts surveyed by StreetAccount.
Security revenue doubled to $2.02 billion, topping the StreetAccount consensus of $1.93 billion. Cisco’s revenue from collaboration was $1.09 billion, a bit below the $1.04 billion consensus estimate.
Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said on the earnings call on Wednesday that orders from large-scale clients for artificial intelligence infrastructure exceeded $300 million in the quarter. Server makers such as Dell and HPE have also focused on sales of hardware that can help clients implement generative AI.
“We have earned more design wins and remain confident that we will exceed our target of $1 billion of AI orders this fiscal year from web-scale customers,” Robbins said.
Cisco has announced hardware containing Nvidia’s graphics processing units, which are widely used for training AI models, Robbins said.
“Over time, you’ll see us support other GPUs as the market demands,” he said. “But that partnership is still going fine. It’s still early. And I think 2025 is when we’ll start to see enterprise real deployment of some of these technologies.”
For now, enterprises are updating data center infrastructure to prepare for AI and the widespread deployment of AI applications, Robbins said.
U.S. government agencies have delayed deals with Cisco, rather than scrapping them altogether. The Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, which became law in June of last year, has limited U.S. government spending, said Scott Herren, Cisco’s finance chief.
Herren said that with Republicans poised to control the White House and both houses of Congress, he expects “to get a budget in place relatively soon.”
During the quarter, Cisco acquired security startups DeepFactor and Robust Intelligence.
Cisco lifted its full-year guidance to $3.60 to $3.66 in adjusted earnings per share on $55.3 billion to $56.3 billion in revenue, up from a prior forecast of $3.52 to $3.58 in EPS and $55 billion to $56.2 billion in revenue. Guidance would indicate projected revenue growth of 3.3% at the middle of the range.
Analysts expected adjusted earnings for the year of $3.58 per share on $55.89 billion in revenue.
As of Wednesday’s close, Cisco’s stock was up 17% year to date, while the S&P 500 index is up around 26% over that stretch.
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Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, (C) greets attendees during a campaign stop to address Pennsylvanians who are concerned about the threat of Communist China to U.S. agriculture at the Smith Family Farm September 23, 2024 in Smithton, Pennsylvania.
Win Mcnamee | Getty Images
After Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency last week, tech CEOs including Apple‘s Tim Cook, Meta‘s Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon‘s Jeff Bezos publicly praised the president-elect.
One name was conspicuously missing: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew.
His absence was notable considering that of all the top tech companies, TikTok faces the most immediate and existential threat from the U.S. government. In April, President Joe Biden signed a law that requires China’s ByteDance to sell TikTok by Jan. 19. If ByteDance fails to comply, internet hosting companies and app store owners such as Apple and Google will be prohibited from supporting TikTok, effectively banning it in the U.S.
Trump’s return to the White House, though, may provide a lifeline for Chew and TikTok.
Although both Republicans and Democrats supported the Biden TikTok ban in April, Trump voiced opposition to the ban during his candidacy. Trump acknowledged the national security and data privacy concerns with TikTok in a March interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” but he also said “there’s a lot of good and there’s a lot of bad” with the app.
Trump also leveraged TikTok’s shaky future in the U.S. as a reason for people to vote against Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.
“We’re not doing anything with TikTok, but the other side is going to close it up, so if you like TikTok, go out and vote for Trump,” the president-elect said in a September post on his Truth Social service.
Since his election, Trump hasn’t publicly discussed his plans for TikTok, but Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told CNBC that the president-elect “will deliver.”
“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail,” Leavitt said in a statement.
Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to turn after the president-elect met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in the Chinese-owned social media app.
Yass’s trading firm Susquehanna International Group owns a 15% stake in ByteDance while Yass maintains a 7% stake in the company, equating to about $21 billion, NBC and CNBC reported in March. That month it was also reported that Yass was a part owner of the business that merged with the parent company of Trump’s Truth Social.
TikTok’s CEO Shou Zi Chew testifies during the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on online child sexual exploitation, at the U.S. Capitol, in Washington, U.S., January 31, 2024.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
If ByteDance doesn’t sell TikTok by the January deadline, Trump could potentially call on Congress to repeal the law or he can introduce a more “selective enforcement” of the law that would essentially allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. without facing penalties, said Sarah Kreps, a Cornell University professor of government. “Selective enforcement” would be akin to police officers not always enforcing every single instance of jaywalking, she said.
At TikTok, meanwhile, Chew has remained quiet since Trump’s victory, just as he had been in the lead-up to Election Day.
The Chinese-owned company may be taking a neutral approach and a wait-and-see strategy for now, said Long Le, a China business expert and Santa Clara University associate teaching professor.
Le said it’s hard to foresee what Trump will do.
“He’s also a contrarian; that’s what makes him unpredictable,” Le said. “He can say one thing, and the next year he’ll change his mind.”
TikTok didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 31, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong | Getty Images
‘Facebook has been very bad for our country’
When it comes to social media apps, Trump’s campaign comments suggest he’s more concerned with TikTok rival Meta.
In his March interview with “Squawk Box,” Trump said Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, posed a much bigger problem than TikTok. He also said a TikTok ban would only benefit Meta, which he labeled “an enemy of the people.”
“Facebook has been very bad for our country, especially when it comes to elections,” Trump said.
But Trump’s negative views on Meta may have changed after comments by CEO Mark Zuckerberg over the past few months, Cornell’s Kreps said.
Zuckerberg described the photo of Trump raising his fist following a failed assassination attempt in July as “one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.” And after Trump’s win, Zuckerberg congratulated him, saying he was looking forward to working with the president-elect and his administration.
“My sense as an armchair psychologist of Trump is that he really likes people who sing his praises, and so his view on Zuckerberg and Meta, I would imagine, has changed,” Kreps said. “He might then just revert to his American economic nationalism here and say, ‘Let’s protect American industry and continue with the Chinese ban.'”
Meta didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Maintaining support of the TikTok ban could also win Trump political favor with lawmakers concerned about China’s global political and business influence, said Milton Mueller, a professor at Georgia Tech’s School of Public Policy.
“I don’t see him scoring big points politically by standing up for TikTok,” Mueller said, noting that few lawmakers, like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., have opposed the ban.
Even if Trump does provide a lifeline for TikTok, it’s unclear how much damage that would do to his administration since many politicians are reluctant to publicly criticize him, Le said.
“They’re not going to challenge him because he just got so much power,” Le said.
Since launching his TikTok account in June, Trump has amassed over 14 million followers. Given his social media savvy, Trump may not want to make a decision that results in him losing the public attention and influence he’s gained on TikTok, Le said.
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