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President Joe Biden and Democrats cannot win the debate over the economy without fundamentally reframing the terms of the choice they are offering voters, an extensive new research study by one of the partys prominent electoral-strategy groups has concluded.

The study, scheduled to be released today, seeks to mitigate one of the partys most glaring vulnerabilities heading into the 2024 election: the consistent finding in surveys that when it comes to managing the national economy or addressing inflation, significantly more voters express confidence in Republicans than in Democrats.

To close that gap, the study argues, Biden and Democrats must shift the debate from which party is best equipped to grow the overall economy to which side can help families achieve what the report calls a better life. The study argues that Democrats can win that argument with a three-pronged message centered on: delivering tangible kitchen-table economic benefits (such as increased federal subsidies for buying health insurance), confronting powerful special interests (such as major corporations), and pledging to protect key personal liberties and freedoms, led by the right to legal abortion.

The study was conducted by Way to Win, a group that provides funding for candidates and organizations focused on mobilizing voters of color, in conjunction with Anat Shenker-Osorio, of ASO Communications, a message consulting firm for progressive candidates and causes. Last year, Way to Win was among the top advocates pushing the party to stress a message of protecting personal freedoms and democracyan approach that helped Democrats overperform expectations despite widespread discontent about the economy.

Reversing the advantage Donald Trump and the GOP have on the economy will require Democrats to highlight the tangible improvements their policies have made in peoples lives, in lieu of speaking of abstract economic gains, as well as touting their future agenda of expanding on these gains, taking on corporate greed and the MAGA Republicans who aim to rule only for the wealthy few, concludes a memo summarizing the research that was provided exclusively to The Atlantic.

Read: The two Republican theories for beating Trump

Based on months of polls, focus groups, and other public-opinion research, the study comes amid simmering Democratic anxieties over national and swing-state surveys showing Trump leading Biden. Especially frustrating for the White House and other Democrats has been the persistence and pervasiveness of negative public attitudes about the economy, despite robust economic growth, low unemployment, and a huge reduction in the inflation rate over the past year. Democrats were particularly unnerved by a recent survey from Democracy Corps, a group founded by the longtime party strategists James Carville and Stanley B. Greenberg, that found that voters in the key swing states gave Trump a retrospective job-approval rating for his performance as president nearly 10 percentage points higher than what they give Biden for his current performance.

Biden has spent months trying to highlight positive trends in the economy by describing them under the rubric of Bidenomics. But the Way to Win study, like the Democracy Corps research, argues that it is counterproductive for the administration to try to convince voters that inflation is abating or that the economy is improving while so many are struggling to make ends meet. Telling voters that inflation is going down [produced a] backlash in the research, Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, Way to Wins senior vice president, told me: Their experience is that its up. If you make an overarching statement that things are getting better, it rubs people the wrong way.

Probably the key insight in the report is the contention that its a mistake for Democrats to focus the 2024 debate on any of the broad national trends in the economy, including those that have been positive under Biden, such as job growth.

For many years, the report argues, voters have been inclined to believe that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the overall economyan advantage that may be especially pronounced for Trump, a former business mogul, if hes the GOP nominee. But, the study found, swing voters, as well as the irregular voters the party needs to turn out in 2024, give Democrats an edge on which party can best deliver for you and your familys economic well-being.

If the argument is who [handles] the economy best, even though its not true in any sense, thats their brand advantage, Shenker-Osorio told me. If the question is who is going to create the best future for your family, that is a Democratic-brand advantage. That is a story we can tell. Its a credible story, and its a story that people care more about.

Read: A war on blue America

To shift the debate into this more favorable terrain, the report argues, Biden and other Democrats must simultaneously reorient their economic arguments in opposite directions. The group argues that Democrats must narrow their focus by talking less about macroeconomic trends and more about specific policies they have enacted to help families make ends meet. That includes policies that Biden has passed to lower prescription-drug and utility costs, and policies he could promote in a second term, such as restoring the expanded child tax credit that Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act last year.

Among both swing voters and surge voters, folks are moved more by talking about tangible gains than by talking about growing the economy, Shenker-Osorio said.

Simultaneously, the report argues that Democrats must link their economic agenda to a broader promise to defend voters against an array of forces threatening their ability to succeed. In its research, the group found that the strongest case for Democrats blended pledges to deliver concrete economic benefits with promises to defend fundamental rights and stand up to big, wealthy corporations.

Across all of these fronts, Fernandez Ancona argues, the key for Democrats is not just to warn about what a second Trump term could mean but to give voters a positive vision that emphasizes their success at stopping him and the prospect that reelecting Biden could deliver measurable benefits. We really believe we cant just rely on telling people the bad things, Fernandez Ancona said.

Key results in the 2022 election offer Democrats some reason for optimism that the approach urged by Way to Win can succeed. In the five swing states most likely to decide the 2024 presidential race, Democrats won seven of the nine Senate and gubernatorial races in 2022, primarily around variations on the themes that Way to Win wants the party to stress next year.

The range of problems confronting Biden, such as doubts about his age and capacity, cant all be resolved by recalibrating his message. Fernandez Ancona doesnt pretend otherwise. But she argues that a more precisely targeted message will provide Biden the best chance of maximizing his support whatever the background environment looks like next year. We cant control what conditions are, she told me. Messaging cant solve all problems. But it does do something to paint the path forward and make sure that voters go into the booth knowing what the stakes are.

With Trump looming as the likely GOP nominee, Democratic strategists at this point may have greater consensus about the stakes in 2024 than the path forward for the party. The sheer proliferation of studies proposing a new approach for Biden may be the most telling measure of how much more difficult this election looks than Democrats once anticipated.

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Edmonton takes control over Stars: Game 3 grades, takeaways

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Edmonton takes control over Stars: Game 3 grades, takeaways

While fans in Edmonton and Dallas are always singing about how they have friends in low places, only one of them has the high ground in the Western Conference finals. And that’s the Oilers after their 6-1 win Sunday in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.

With the series tied heading into Sunday, the objective for Game 3 was to gain a firm grasp of the conference finals, and the Oilers did just that by having five players with multipoint performances. As for the Stars, losing Game 3 left them trailing a series for the second time this postseason, with the only other such occurrence coming after Game 1 against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.

Now that the Oilers are in control of the series, what does it mean for them going forward? What must the Stars do differently ahead of Game 4 for them to return home tied rather than a game away from elimination? Ryan S. Clark and Greg Wyshynski examine those questions while delving into what lies ahead for two teams that not only faced each other in the conference finals last season but between them have been involved in every conference final since 2020.

Edmonton Oilers
Grade: A

Much could change between now and whenever the playoffs end. But for now, the argument could be made that this was the most important playoff game the Oilers have had this postseason.

The Oilers have had numerous strong performances, such as Game 3 against the Los Angeles Kings in the first round or their final two games against the Vegas Golden Knights in the conference semifinals. But what made the Oilers’ performance in Game 3 against Dallas arguably their most important was that they found a balance between being difficult in the defensive zone while not relying on a shutout to accomplish that objective.

The Stars finished with 37 shots, 13 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 play and scored only once. Connor McDavid has repeatedly stressed that the Oilers can play defense, and that has been made clear over their past five games. But Sunday proved they didn’t need Stuart Skinner or their defensive structure to blank an opponent to win. — Ryan S. Clark

Dallas Stars
Grade: C+

The final score doesn’t reflect the majority of this game, which Dallas coach Pete DeBoer can mine for positives among the many (many) negatives and some mitigating circumstances. Having Roope Hintz warm up but not be able to go because of the foot injury he suffered from a Darnell Nurse slash in Game 2? That’s deflating. Having the on-ice officials miss a delay of game call on Brett Kulak in the first period only to have Evan Bouchard open the scoring 10 seconds later? Also deflating.

So it’s to the Stars’ credit that they got to their game at 5-on-5 in Game 3 better than they have in any game of the series, at least before Edmonton ran up the score in the third. The results weren’t there and a loss is a loss — and a loss by this margin is difficult to stomach — but their second period and the performances from some of their slumbering depth players give the Stars at least a glimmer.

However, there’s no question Edmonton has this thing in well in-hand and the Stars have to find a way to solve Skinner, which is not something I thought I’d be writing at this stage of the postseason. — Greg Wyshynski


Three Stars of Game 3

Two goals and an assist for his seventh career multigoal playoff game. Hyman’s second goal was the Oilers’ fourth off the rush, the most in one game by any team this postseason. Hyman also was plus-5 Sunday.

Bouchard scored his sixth goal of the postseason and these two were on the ice for the first two Edmonton goals. At 5-on-5 this postseason, the Oilers are outscoring their opponents 7-1, and 5-0 in this series, when Bouchard and Kulak are on the ice.

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Connor McDavid restores Oilers’ 2-goal lead

Connor McDavid finds the back of the net to restore the Oilers’ two-goal lead vs. the Stars.

3. Connor McDavid
C, Oilers

For all the talk about the lack of goals from the best hockey player in the world (which was odd because he had 20 points in 13 games and was a plus-7 entering Game 3 despite having only three goals), McDavid punched out a pair of tucks for his sixth career multigoal playoff game. Also, seeing McDavid with the puck barreling toward the net on a 3-on-1 is nightmare fuel for opponents. — Arda Öcal


Players to watch in Game 4

Zach Hyman
LW, Oilers

To go from 16 goals last postseason to just three goals entering Game 3 of the conference finals is one way to assess Hyman. Another is to realize that he’s been the most physical player on a team that is among the tallest and heaviest in the NHL.

Hyman came into Game 3 leading the NHL with 99 hits. He remained physical Sunday by leading the way with six hits in a game that saw the Oilers continue their punishing style with 47. But to then see Hyman score two goals and finish with three points in addition to that physicality? It once again adds to the narrative that the Oilers might not only have more dimensions than last year’s team, they could be better than the team that finished Stanley Cup runner-up in 2024. — Clark

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Zach Hyman’s 2nd goal puts Oilers up 4

Zach Hyman taps home his second goal of the game to put the Oilers up 5-1 vs. the Stars.

This is the first two-game losing streak for the Dallas goaltender in the playoffs. A lot of what happened in Game 3 wasn’t necessarily on him — a Connor McDavid beauty and a Zach Hyman breakaway were among the Edmonton tallies — but outside of the third period of Game 1, he’s not been a difference-maker in this series. Oettinger came into the game leading the playoffs with 5.58 goals saved above expected, according to Stathletes. The Stars have been able to depend on him as a slump-breaker. But this is his third game with a save percentage south of .900 in the series. As the Stars try to build on some positives from this game, they need Otter to provide the foundation for it — and in the process, silence those “U.S. backup!” chants from the Oilers fans. — Wyshynski


Big questions for Game 4

Are the Oilers about to do to the Stars what they did to the Golden Knights?

Simply put, the Oilers are where hope goes to die. Teams in a championship window that have yet to win a title are always being judged on their evolution. What the Oilers did to the Stars a year ago in the conference finals by winning the last three games showed that they could close out a series after trailing. This postseason Edmonton has shown a calculated and methodical coldness when it comes to putting away opponents.

The Golden Knights won Game 3 on a last-second goal to create the belief they may have found an opening. They didn’t score again for the rest of the playoffs after being in the top five of goals per game throughout the regular season. Breaking out for six goals to open the series seemed to be a sign the Stars may have found an opening. Since then? They’ve scored only once in the last six periods while facing questions about what’s happened to another team that went from being in the top five in goals per game in the regular season. — Clark

Can Dallas make Edmonton uncomfortable at all?

Our colleague Mark Messier made this point between periods of Game 3: The Stars have yet to do anything to get McDavid or Leon Draisaitl off their games. That extends to the rest of the Oilers. Outside of an anomalous run of three power-play goals in the third period of Game 1, there have been precious few instances of the Stars carrying play for long stretches or putting a scare into Edmonton at 5-on-5.

They had that for a bit in Game 3 with a dominant second period: plus-14 in shot attempts, plus-11 in scoring chances and a 10-1 advantage in high-danger shot attempts. But they were digging out of a 2-0 hole, only managed to get one goal of their own on the board and then McDavid stuck a dagger in them with 19 seconds left in the second.

The Stars need a lead. They need zone time. They need to get their rush game going: Skinner had a .897 save percentage on shots off the rush entering the game. Edmonton is playing with a champion’s confidence. Dallas has to find a way to inject a little doubt into its opponent or this series is going to end quickly. — Wyshynski

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U.S. wins 1st worlds in 92 years, honors Gaudreau

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U.S. wins 1st worlds in 92 years, honors Gaudreau

STOCKHOLM — Buffalo Sabres star forward Tage Thompson scored the winner 2:02 into overtime, and Team USA outlasted Switzerland 1-0 in the final of the ice hockey world championship at Avicii Arena on Sunday.

It is the first on-ice trophy for USA Hockey in this tournament in 92 years, after the Americans brought it home back in 1933. And it was an emotional one. As Team USA posed for its championship photo at center ice, players held up a No. 13 jersey of Johnny Gaudreau, the former NHL and USA Hockey star forward who died tragically last August when he and his brother, Matthew, were hit by an allegedly drunken and enraged driver as they cycled at night in New Jersey.

Thompson, who had 44 goals and 72 points with the Sabres this season, is hoping to polish off his resume for a spot on the U.S. roster for the 2026 Olympics, and he’s off to a great start. A Team USA reserve for the 4 Nations Face-Off in February who did not suit up, Thompson made the most of his time playing with a host of young NHL forwards who either did not make, or have been eliminated from, the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Thompson’s shot, off passes from Utah Hockey Club forward Logan Cooley and Nashville Predators defenseman Brady Skjei, flew past the blocker of Swiss goaltender Leonardo Genoni, ending a dramatic but tight title game. Team USA outshot Switzerland 40-25.

Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman capped off the shutout in the final, finishing with 25 saves a year after his NHL teammate, David Pastrnak led the Czech Republic to this same title.

“We did it, the wait is over,” Swayman said in a post to USA Hockey fans on the organization’s social media platforms. “Thanks for sticking along with us. It’s going to be a great summer.”

The Americans were also formally awarded the title in 1960 when they won the Olympic tournament and the worlds did not take place. But they hadn’t won it on the ice in more than nine decades.

The Swiss played without injured star center Nico Hischier, the captain of the New Jersey Devils. After the loss, Genoni was named the tournament’s MVP.

Earlier Sunday, Sweden defeated Denmark 6-2 in the bronze medal game. Calgary Flames center Mikael Backlund and Minnesota Wild forward Marcus Johansson scored two goals each for the hosts, marking the second-straight third-place finish for Sweden. The fourth-place result was the best-ever finish for Denmark.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Oilers ‘reset,’ handle Stars for 2-1 series lead

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Oilers 'reset,' handle Stars for 2-1 series lead

EDMONTON, Alberta — Zach Hyman had two goals and an assist, Connor McDavid also had a two-goal outing and the Edmonton Oilers took a 2-1 lead in their Western Conference final series with a 6-1 victory over the Dallas Stars on Sunday.

Evan Bouchard, with a goal and an assist, and John Klingberg also scored for the Oilers. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins added three assists.

Stuart Skinner made 33 saves in the Edmonton net to improve to 4-4 in the postseason this year, his first victory in the playoffs that wasn’t a shutout.

“We had a bit of a dip, they had a bit of push,” Nugent-Hopkins said of the Stars’ play in the second period, lauding Skinner for keeping the team in it. “He stepped up big time for us, and made some big saves. You need your goalies to do that.”

The Oilers have won two straight since their third-period collapse in Game 1 in Dallas, and improved to 10-3 in the postseason since dropping the first two games of their first-round series vs. the Los Angeles Kings.

Jason Robertson scored for the Stars, who are hoping to avoid being knocked out in the third round by the Oilers for a second consecutive season.

“They were definitely the better team in the second period,” Skinner said of the Stars. “And we kind of knew that going into the third. So, we just had to reset.”

Jake Oettinger stopped 18 shots in Dallas’ net, falling to 5-10 in his career in West final contests.

Game 4 will be in Edmonton on Tuesday.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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