Bidens Economic Formula to Win in 2024

Published

1 year ago

December 18, 2023

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President Joe Biden and Democrats cannot win the debate over the economy without fundamentally reframing the terms of the choice they are offering voters, an extensive new research study by one of the partys prominent electoral-strategy groups has concluded.

The study, scheduled to be released today, seeks to mitigate one of the partys most glaring vulnerabilities heading into the 2024 election: the consistent finding in surveys that when it comes to managing the national economy or addressing inflation, significantly more voters express confidence in Republicans than in Democrats.

To close that gap, the study argues, Biden and Democrats must shift the debate from which party is best equipped to grow the overall economy to which side can help families achieve what the report calls a better life. The study argues that Democrats can win that argument with a three-pronged message centered on: delivering tangible kitchen-table economic benefits (such as increased federal subsidies for buying health insurance), confronting powerful special interests (such as major corporations), and pledging to protect key personal liberties and freedoms, led by the right to legal abortion.

The study was conducted by Way to Win, a group that provides funding for candidates and organizations focused on mobilizing voters of color, in conjunction with Anat Shenker-Osorio, of ASO Communications, a message consulting firm for progressive candidates and causes. Last year, Way to Win was among the top advocates pushing the party to stress a message of protecting personal freedoms and democracyan approach that helped Democrats overperform expectations despite widespread discontent about the economy.

Reversing the advantage Donald Trump and the GOP have on the economy will require Democrats to highlight the tangible improvements their policies have made in peoples lives, in lieu of speaking of abstract economic gains, as well as touting their future agenda of expanding on these gains, taking on corporate greed and the MAGA Republicans who aim to rule only for the wealthy few, concludes a memo summarizing the research that was provided exclusively to The Atlantic.

Read: The two Republican theories for beating Trump

Based on months of polls, focus groups, and other public-opinion research, the study comes amid simmering Democratic anxieties over national and swing-state surveys showing Trump leading Biden. Especially frustrating for the White House and other Democrats has been the persistence and pervasiveness of negative public attitudes about the economy, despite robust economic growth, low unemployment, and a huge reduction in the inflation rate over the past year. Democrats were particularly unnerved by a recent survey from Democracy Corps, a group founded by the longtime party strategists James Carville and Stanley B. Greenberg, that found that voters in the key swing states gave Trump a retrospective job-approval rating for his performance as president nearly 10 percentage points higher than what they give Biden for his current performance.

Biden has spent months trying to highlight positive trends in the economy by describing them under the rubric of Bidenomics. But the Way to Win study, like the Democracy Corps research, argues that it is counterproductive for the administration to try to convince voters that inflation is abating or that the economy is improving while so many are struggling to make ends meet. Telling voters that inflation is going down [produced a] backlash in the research, Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, Way to Wins senior vice president, told me: Their experience is that its up. If you make an overarching statement that things are getting better, it rubs people the wrong way.

Probably the key insight in the report is the contention that its a mistake for Democrats to focus the 2024 debate on any of the broad national trends in the economy, including those that have been positive under Biden, such as job growth.

For many years, the report argues, voters have been inclined to believe that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the overall economyan advantage that may be especially pronounced for Trump, a former business mogul, if hes the GOP nominee. But, the study found, swing voters, as well as the irregular voters the party needs to turn out in 2024, give Democrats an edge on which party can best deliver for you and your familys economic well-being.

If the argument is who [handles] the economy best, even though its not true in any sense, thats their brand advantage, Shenker-Osorio told me. If the question is who is going to create the best future for your family, that is a Democratic-brand advantage. That is a story we can tell. Its a credible story, and its a story that people care more about.

Read: A war on blue America

To shift the debate into this more favorable terrain, the report argues, Biden and other Democrats must simultaneously reorient their economic arguments in opposite directions. The group argues that Democrats must narrow their focus by talking less about macroeconomic trends and more about specific policies they have enacted to help families make ends meet. That includes policies that Biden has passed to lower prescription-drug and utility costs, and policies he could promote in a second term, such as restoring the expanded child tax credit that Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act last year.

Among both swing voters and surge voters, folks are moved more by talking about tangible gains than by talking about growing the economy, Shenker-Osorio said.

Simultaneously, the report argues that Democrats must link their economic agenda to a broader promise to defend voters against an array of forces threatening their ability to succeed. In its research, the group found that the strongest case for Democrats blended pledges to deliver concrete economic benefits with promises to defend fundamental rights and stand up to big, wealthy corporations.

Across all of these fronts, Fernandez Ancona argues, the key for Democrats is not just to warn about what a second Trump term could mean but to give voters a positive vision that emphasizes their success at stopping him and the prospect that reelecting Biden could deliver measurable benefits. We really believe we cant just rely on telling people the bad things, Fernandez Ancona said.

Key results in the 2022 election offer Democrats some reason for optimism that the approach urged by Way to Win can succeed. In the five swing states most likely to decide the 2024 presidential race, Democrats won seven of the nine Senate and gubernatorial races in 2022, primarily around variations on the themes that Way to Win wants the party to stress next year.

The range of problems confronting Biden, such as doubts about his age and capacity, cant all be resolved by recalibrating his message. Fernandez Ancona doesnt pretend otherwise. But she argues that a more precisely targeted message will provide Biden the best chance of maximizing his support whatever the background environment looks like next year. We cant control what conditions are, she told me. Messaging cant solve all problems. But it does do something to paint the path forward and make sure that voters go into the booth knowing what the stakes are.

With Trump looming as the likely GOP nominee, Democratic strategists at this point may have greater consensus about the stakes in 2024 than the path forward for the party. The sheer proliferation of studies proposing a new approach for Biden may be the most telling measure of how much more difficult this election looks than Democrats once anticipated.

Business

John Lewis Partnership profits leap but no bonus for third consecutive year

Published

2 hours ago

March 13, 2025

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John Lewis Partnership profits leap but no bonus for third consecutive year

The John Lewis Partnership (JLP) has revealed a 73% rise in annual profits but says staff will receive no bonus for the third year in a row.

The employee-owned business, behind John Lewis department stores and Waitrose supermarkets, said earnings over the 12 months to January came in at £97m – up from the £56m achieved in the previous year.

Group sales rose 3% to £12.8bn, driven by Waitrose, in a year when the department store chain restored its ‘Never Knowingly Undersold’ price promise that was scrapped in 2022.

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New chair Jason Tarry signalled a further £600m investment in its operations on the back of the improved profit performance and a focus on regular pay for staff, known as partners, over a one-off reward.

A 7.4% wage rise was revealed earlier this month as the business moved to bolster retention amid the barren spell for annual bonuses that has only seen one paid out over the last five years.

The last financial year marked only the fourth time since 1953 that JLP had not awarded a bonus.

Mr Tarry, who succeeded Dame Sharon White six months ago amid a post pandemic turnaround plan that included the closure of underperforming stores and thousands of job losses, said “careful consideration” had been given to the bonus.

He told the group’s 73,000 partners: “These are solid results, which show that our customers are responding well to our investments in quality products, value and service.

“We have made good progress with much more still to do.

“Looking forward, I see significant opportunity for growth from both our Waitrose and John Lewis brands.

“Our focus will be on enhancing what makes these brands truly special for our customers.

“This will involve considerable catch-up investment in our stores and supply chain.”

Politics

Apple vs Home Office encryption court battle must be held in public, say MPs

Published

2 hours ago

March 13, 2025

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Apple vs Home Office encryption court battle must be held in public, say MPs

Any court showdown between Apple and the Home Office over customer data must be held in public, MPs have demanded.

It comes after the tech giant announced last month that it would no longer offer UK customers its most advanced, end-to-end security encryption feature for cloud data storage following a row with the government.

The dispute was sparked when ministers reportedly decided to issue Apple with a Technical Capability Notice (TCN) demanding the right to see the user data.

Legally, neither of the parties can publicly confirm the existence of the order.

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However, ComputerWeekly and others have reported that Apple has launched an appeal against the TCN, with an initial hearing set to be heard on Friday before the Investigatory Powers Tribunal at the High Court in London.

A court listing document shows a behind-closed-doors application is due to be held before Lord Justice Singh and Mr Justice Johnson.

Veteran Tory MP and civil rights campaigner Sir David Davis told Sky News: “If the Home Office wants to have effectively unfettered access to the private data of the (innocent) general public, they should explain their case in front of the public.”

Also speaking to Sky News, Liberal Democrat technology spokesperson Victoria Collins said: “The move by the government endangers people here in the UK and sets a dangerous precedent for authoritarian regimes across the globe…

“I’m proud to add my name to the call for the hearing on this crucial issue to be open to the public. People deserve to know what’s happening to their private personal information.”

Reform UK chief whip Lee Anderson said: “If the government wishes to pry on its people, they can make that claim in public. This now puts the security and privacy of the British people at risk.

“The government should have as little involvement in our personal lives as possible. Not in our tweets, not in our text messages, and certainly not with full access to our phones.”

Prior to its removal in the UK, Apple‘s Advanced Data Protection service allowed users the ability to encrypt their data in such a way that no one, not even the tech company, would be able to access it.

Critics fear the use of end-to-end encryption – where third-party access is impossible – could help criminals like paedophiles hide their activity from authorities.

However, providing access to encrypted data, whether to a government or a company, provides potential pathways for third parties such as hackers to access information.

Successive governments have said they want to restrict the use of the function.

Apple has never commented on the TCN, but said in a previous statement: “Enhancing the security of cloud storage with end-to-end encryption is more urgent than ever before.

“Apple remains committed to offering our users the highest level of security for their personal data and are hopeful that we will be able to do so in the future in the United Kingdom.

“As we have said many times before, we have never built a backdoor or master key to any of our products or services and we never will.”

The Home Office declined to comment.

Politics

Ousted Reform MP Rupert Lowe consulting lawyers over libel action, Sky News understands

Published

2 hours ago

March 13, 2025

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Ousted Reform MP Rupert Lowe consulting lawyers over libel action, Sky News understands

Rupert Lowe is consulting lawyers about taking possible libel action against Reform UK, Sky News understands.

The Great Yarmouth MP has accused the party of making “untrue and false allegations” about him after he criticised leader Nigel Farage in the media, sparking a bitter public row.

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A day after the 67-year-old questioned whether Mr Farage could make it as prime minister, Reform UK announced on Friday it had referred him to police and suspended him, alleging he made “verbal threats” against chairman Zia Yousaf.

The Met has launched an investigation into these claims, which Mr Lowe has vehemently denied.

Reform has also claimed it has received complaints from two female employees about serious bullying in Mr Lowe’s constituency office.

The now independent MP has strenuously denied these claims as well, saying the allegations do not relate to him and were made by staff who themselves faced disciplinary action.

Mr Lowe believes he is the victim of a “witch hunt” after speaking out against the party’s leadership in an interview with the Daily Mail that was published last week, in which he challenged Mr Farage’s “messianic” tendencies.

He has not ruled out joining the Conservatives or another political party, while Mr Farage has said there is “no way back” for the suspended MP and accused him of being “out to cause maximum damage” to Reform UK.

The feud could deepen still with Mr Lowe now mulling legal action over claims made about him during the ongoing war of words, it is understood.

The former Southampton FC chairman has accused Mr Farage of spreading “outright lies” after he told GB News that he “knows for a fact” Mr Lowe was informed of a parliamentary investigation into bullying allegations on 29 Feb and gave an interview with the Mail “shortly after that”.

According to the Mail, the interview was held on 25 February – days before Mr Lowe received a letter from Reform’s chief whip Lee Anderson informing him of concerns over his conduct.

The letter, seen by Sky News, was from Reform rather than parliament and says the parliamentary party has determined an independent investigation is the best course of action.

Mr Lowe has urged Mr Farage to “apologise, retract and correct the record,” posting on X: “To suggest I used the interview to deflect from any investigation is factually untrue. I have heard absolutely nothing from parliament about any of this.”

Mr Lowe also denies claims made by Mr Anderson that he has not co-operated with the independent inquiry into his behaviour.

Last night, seven members of his team put their names on a statement coming to Mr Lowe’s defence, saying he is a “good, decent and honest man”, that they have never witnessed “violent or vicious” behaviour and allegations of bullying are “robustly denied by all of us”.

Sky News has contacted Reform UK for comment.

The row poses danger for a party that has its sights on entering government at the next election after a meteoric rise in the polls.

In his interview with the Mail, Mr Lowe said it was “too early to know” if Mr Farage will become prime minister and warned Reform remains a “protest party led by the Messiah” under the Clacton MP.

He also claimed that he was “barely six months into being an MP” himself and “in the betting to be the next prime minister”.

During Mr Farage’s online falling out with Elon Musk, in which he said Reform needed a new leader, Mr Lowe drew praise from the Space X billionaire.

In a move seen as a hint of a new splinter group, another ousted Reform UK politician, former deputy leader Ben Habib, told The Daily Telegraph that Mr Lowe was a “good friend” and he was “constantly in touch with” him.