Bidens Economic Formula to Win in 2024

Published

1 year ago

December 18, 2023

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President Joe Biden and Democrats cannot win the debate over the economy without fundamentally reframing the terms of the choice they are offering voters, an extensive new research study by one of the partys prominent electoral-strategy groups has concluded.

The study, scheduled to be released today, seeks to mitigate one of the partys most glaring vulnerabilities heading into the 2024 election: the consistent finding in surveys that when it comes to managing the national economy or addressing inflation, significantly more voters express confidence in Republicans than in Democrats.

To close that gap, the study argues, Biden and Democrats must shift the debate from which party is best equipped to grow the overall economy to which side can help families achieve what the report calls a better life. The study argues that Democrats can win that argument with a three-pronged message centered on: delivering tangible kitchen-table economic benefits (such as increased federal subsidies for buying health insurance), confronting powerful special interests (such as major corporations), and pledging to protect key personal liberties and freedoms, led by the right to legal abortion.

The study was conducted by Way to Win, a group that provides funding for candidates and organizations focused on mobilizing voters of color, in conjunction with Anat Shenker-Osorio, of ASO Communications, a message consulting firm for progressive candidates and causes. Last year, Way to Win was among the top advocates pushing the party to stress a message of protecting personal freedoms and democracyan approach that helped Democrats overperform expectations despite widespread discontent about the economy.

Reversing the advantage Donald Trump and the GOP have on the economy will require Democrats to highlight the tangible improvements their policies have made in peoples lives, in lieu of speaking of abstract economic gains, as well as touting their future agenda of expanding on these gains, taking on corporate greed and the MAGA Republicans who aim to rule only for the wealthy few, concludes a memo summarizing the research that was provided exclusively to The Atlantic.

Read: The two Republican theories for beating Trump

Based on months of polls, focus groups, and other public-opinion research, the study comes amid simmering Democratic anxieties over national and swing-state surveys showing Trump leading Biden. Especially frustrating for the White House and other Democrats has been the persistence and pervasiveness of negative public attitudes about the economy, despite robust economic growth, low unemployment, and a huge reduction in the inflation rate over the past year. Democrats were particularly unnerved by a recent survey from Democracy Corps, a group founded by the longtime party strategists James Carville and Stanley B. Greenberg, that found that voters in the key swing states gave Trump a retrospective job-approval rating for his performance as president nearly 10 percentage points higher than what they give Biden for his current performance.

Biden has spent months trying to highlight positive trends in the economy by describing them under the rubric of Bidenomics. But the Way to Win study, like the Democracy Corps research, argues that it is counterproductive for the administration to try to convince voters that inflation is abating or that the economy is improving while so many are struggling to make ends meet. Telling voters that inflation is going down [produced a] backlash in the research, Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, Way to Wins senior vice president, told me: Their experience is that its up. If you make an overarching statement that things are getting better, it rubs people the wrong way.

Probably the key insight in the report is the contention that its a mistake for Democrats to focus the 2024 debate on any of the broad national trends in the economy, including those that have been positive under Biden, such as job growth.

For many years, the report argues, voters have been inclined to believe that Republicans are better than Democrats at managing the overall economyan advantage that may be especially pronounced for Trump, a former business mogul, if hes the GOP nominee. But, the study found, swing voters, as well as the irregular voters the party needs to turn out in 2024, give Democrats an edge on which party can best deliver for you and your familys economic well-being.

If the argument is who [handles] the economy best, even though its not true in any sense, thats their brand advantage, Shenker-Osorio told me. If the question is who is going to create the best future for your family, that is a Democratic-brand advantage. That is a story we can tell. Its a credible story, and its a story that people care more about.

Read: A war on blue America

To shift the debate into this more favorable terrain, the report argues, Biden and other Democrats must simultaneously reorient their economic arguments in opposite directions. The group argues that Democrats must narrow their focus by talking less about macroeconomic trends and more about specific policies they have enacted to help families make ends meet. That includes policies that Biden has passed to lower prescription-drug and utility costs, and policies he could promote in a second term, such as restoring the expanded child tax credit that Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia stripped from the Inflation Reduction Act last year.

Among both swing voters and surge voters, folks are moved more by talking about tangible gains than by talking about growing the economy, Shenker-Osorio said.

Simultaneously, the report argues that Democrats must link their economic agenda to a broader promise to defend voters against an array of forces threatening their ability to succeed. In its research, the group found that the strongest case for Democrats blended pledges to deliver concrete economic benefits with promises to defend fundamental rights and stand up to big, wealthy corporations.

Across all of these fronts, Fernandez Ancona argues, the key for Democrats is not just to warn about what a second Trump term could mean but to give voters a positive vision that emphasizes their success at stopping him and the prospect that reelecting Biden could deliver measurable benefits. We really believe we cant just rely on telling people the bad things, Fernandez Ancona said.

Key results in the 2022 election offer Democrats some reason for optimism that the approach urged by Way to Win can succeed. In the five swing states most likely to decide the 2024 presidential race, Democrats won seven of the nine Senate and gubernatorial races in 2022, primarily around variations on the themes that Way to Win wants the party to stress next year.

The range of problems confronting Biden, such as doubts about his age and capacity, cant all be resolved by recalibrating his message. Fernandez Ancona doesnt pretend otherwise. But she argues that a more precisely targeted message will provide Biden the best chance of maximizing his support whatever the background environment looks like next year. We cant control what conditions are, she told me. Messaging cant solve all problems. But it does do something to paint the path forward and make sure that voters go into the booth knowing what the stakes are.

With Trump looming as the likely GOP nominee, Democratic strategists at this point may have greater consensus about the stakes in 2024 than the path forward for the party. The sheer proliferation of studies proposing a new approach for Biden may be the most telling measure of how much more difficult this election looks than Democrats once anticipated.

Entertainment

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs in court as high-profile trial begins with jury selection in New York

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1 hour ago

May 5, 2025

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The trial of hip-hop mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs has begun, with the process to pick the jurors who will determine his fate now under way.

Combs, wearing a white shirt with a black crew-neck sweater, grey trousers and glasses, his hair and goatee now grey, hugged and shook hands with all his lawyers as he arrived at the federal courtroom in Manhattan, New York, for the start of the proceedings.

The 55-year-old has been held in detention in Brooklyn since he was arrested and charged in September 2024, accused of engaging in sex trafficking and presiding over a racketeering conspiracy over two decades.

He has pleaded not guilty to criminal charges, said all his sexual relationships and encounters were consensual, and strenuously denied all allegations of wrongdoing.

Due to the high-profile nature of the case, the jury selection process is expected to last all this week, with opening statements by the lawyers set to begin next week.

Unlike some other high-profile trials in the US, this one won’t be broadcast live because federal courtrooms, unlike some state courtrooms, don’t allow electronic recordings inside.

Judge Arun Subramanian started proceedings shortly after 9am on Monday (2pm UK time), first making several rulings on what issues experts will be allowed to testify on when they take to the witness stand.

He then gave an overview of the case and began the questioning of prospective jurors one by one – a process known as “voir dire” – with the aim of finding a panel of 12 jurors and six alternates who can be fair and impartial despite heavy media coverage of the case.

Jurors are being asked if they have any views on the prosecution or the defence, if they or someone close to them has been a victim of crime, and their beliefs on hiring sex workers, the use of illegal drugs, hip-hop artists and law enforcement.

They are also being questioned on whether they have heard of names included on a list of individuals, including celebrities, who may be mentioned during the trial. The list is long, the court heard, with the judge saying it reminded him of Lord Of The Rings.

What have potential jurors been asked?

One prospective juror said they had heard of actors Michael B Jordan and Mike Myers, but this would not prevent them being fair and impartial should they be selected. Another said they had heard of Kanye West.

The context in which Jordan, Myers, West and other people may be mentioned is not yet known.

Other names that came up included Aubrey O’Day and Dawn Richard – former members of girl group Danity Kane, who were signed to Bad Boy – and singer Michelle Williams.

Several prospective jurors indicated they had seen news reports about Combs, and one prospective juror described a still image she had seen as “damning evidence”. She was rejected from consideration.

Another potential juror was excluded because she said a family member had experienced something that made them feel uncomfortable about hearing the case.

At one point during proceedings, Combs asked for a bathroom break, telling the judge: “I’m sorry your honour, I’m a little nervous today.”

One potential juror said they had seen a joke on social media about baby oil authorities say they found in Combs’ residences during searches in March 2024. They said they could remain impartial.

Throughout the day, as potential jurors were questioned, Combs appeared to express his approval or disapproval, either with a nod or by shaking his head no, to his attorneys.

What is Combs accused of?

In the indictment listing the formal charges against the rapper, he is accused of a pattern of abusive behavior over two decades, allegedly with the help of people in his entourage.

Prosecutors say he manipulated women into participating in drug-fuelled sexual performances with male sex workers, which he called “Freak Offs”.

Combs and his associates resorted to violent acts, including beatings, kidnapping and arson, when he didn’t get his way, they allege.

Lawyers for Combs say any group sex was consensual, that there was no coercion involved, and nothing that happened amounted to a criminal racket.

If convicted, he faces the possibility of decades in prison.

The Cassie video

One issue likely to be featured in the trial is an incident in 2016, when a security camera recorded Combs allegedly kicking and hitting his then girlfriend Cassie Ventura in a Los Angeles hotel hallway.

Cassie filed a lawsuit in November 2023 saying Combs had subjected her to years of abuse, including beatings and rape, but the case was settled the following day.

The hotel footage emerged in May 2024. Shortly afterwards, Combs released a video apology, saying his behaviour in the video was at a time when he had “hit rock bottom” but nonetheless was “inexcusable” and that he was “disgusted” with himself.

One of his lawyers, Marc Agnifilo, has said Combs was “not a perfect person” and that there had been drug use and toxic relationships, but that all sexual activity between Combs, Cassie and other people was consensual.

Jury selection continues today and throughout this week, with the trial expected to last about eight weeks.

Sports

Trump plan cuts funding for brain injury research

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1 hour ago

May 5, 2025

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Trump plan cuts funding for brain injury research

Michael RothsteinMay 5, 2025, 02:10 PM ET
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The Trump administration’s 2026 fiscal budget request to Congress eliminates major federal funding for traumatic brain injury (TBI) research and education, potentially undercutting efforts to address head injuries in sports, particularly at the high school and youth levels.

The White House’s proposed budget, released Friday, includes eliminating the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention umbrella agency responsible for TBI research, including the $8.25 million marked for brain injury research and public education about the dangers of concussions. The CDC is facing $3.59 billion in budget cuts.

Although the president proposes the federal budget, it is up to Congress to approve a final budget bill, so the TBI program could be restored or moved to a different agency. The White House did not respond to an ESPN request for comment.

The budget proposal comes after the CDC on April 1 placed all five staffers devoted to administering the government’s main traumatic brain injury program on paid administrative leave, CDC employees told ESPN. Paid administrative leave means the workers are still government employees.

The budget cuts would “roll back decades of progress,” said Dr. Owen Perlman, a brain injury specialist and board member of the Brain Injury Association of America.

Among the items targeted is Heads Up, a concussion-prevention program for youth and high school coaches, athletic trainers and other sports officials. The CDC staffers put on leave administered the program. Forty-five states participate in the program to varying degrees, a CDC official said, asking not to be identified.

Staffers interviewed by ESPN declined to speak on the record, citing fears of administration retribution.

“We’re really worried about the hundreds of thousands of coaches who have to take this training,” the CDC official said. “This is really built in, and we’ve lost the whole team” behind the program.

Some Heads Up training is part of coaches’ and other sports officials’ state compliance requirements. The CDC official said hundreds of email queries are arriving every week asking how to comply as the federal program shuts down. The Heads Up website says more than 10 million people have participated in its online training programs.

Congress first approved TBI research funding in 1996. Legislation to keep the program going expired at the end of 2024, and a House bill to renew it has yet to advance out of committee.

In a 2018 CDC survey, 12% of adult respondents reported experiencing a head injury in the previous 12 months, including but not limited to sports-related activities. A follow-up study was being prepared when the staffers were placed on leave. The research data was part of a program to measure TBI prevalence and boost prevention, care and recovery efforts.

The Heads Up website remained active Monday but offered no clues regarding the program’s endangered status.

“In the last month, I don’t think the public has felt an impact,” a laid-off CDC employee said. “But when those websites, trainings and materials get pulled down or when they can’t be updated, I think that’s when the public will feel it.”

In the proposed White House budget, the National Institutes of Health would retain an institute devoted to overall brain research, although the name would slightly change. The institute focuses on medical issues such as stroke and migraines, and it’s unclear whether TBI programs would be absorbed into it.

Hospitals and universities conducting TBI research funded by the CDC are bracing for potential funding cutbacks.

“We might not [get] the next year of renewal or the next wave of funding. And that’s sad and scary and impactful for all kinds of people, including myself in this project,” said Christine Baugh, an assistant professor at the University of Colorado’s School of Medicine who is studying how parents decide whether to let their children play contact sports and whether brain-injury awareness campaigns influence their decisions.

On April 23, the National Academy of Sciences received orders to cancel work on two TBI workshops, one of which analyzed the risks of repeated head impacts on children. Both workshops had already been held. One of the workshop organizers, Dr. Fred Rivara, a pediatrics professor at the University of Washington, told ESPN that the cancellation affected funding for publishing the information, and he called the potential cuts “tragic.”

“That’s a perfect example of how this change in, or devastation of, funding at the CDC is impacting people,” Rivara said. “They want to know, for sports: What about these repetitive impacts? Are they bad for kids? It’s a perfect example of the impact of this.”

Traumatic brain injuries have lifelong repercussions on a person’s physical, cognitive, emotional and behavioral health, Perlman said.

Even though some states fund TBI-treatment programs independently of the federal government, concerns are growing about a domino effect if Congress fails to renew funding.

“For many people with concussions or certainly moderate or severe brain injuries, there’s no endpoint,” Perlman said. “It’s a lifetime problem, and there needs to be lifetime funding for it.”

Sports

Stanley Cup playoff picks: Who wins every second-round series?

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1 hour ago

May 5, 2025

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Stanley Cup playoff picks: Who wins every second-round series?

The first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs is complete. Eight of the teams that made the postseason bracket have moved on, and eight others have been eliminated.

Before the second-round series begin, ESPN’s experts have identified their picks for each matchup. Which four teams will move on to the conference finals?

More: Full schedule
Betting intel

Atlantic Division

John Buccigross: Panthers in seven
Ryan Callahan: Panthers in six
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Panthers in six
Sachin Chandan: Panthers in six
Meghan Chayka: Panthers in six
Ryan S. Clark: Panthers in seven
Linda Cohn: Panthers in six
Rachel Doerrie: Panthers in six
Ray Ferraro: Panthers in six
Emily Kaplan: Panthers in seven
Tim Kavanagh: Maple Leafs in six
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Panthers in six
Steve Levy: Panthers in six
Vince Masi: Panthers in six
Victoria Matiash: Panthers in six
Sean McDonough: Panthers in six
Mark Messier: Panthers in six
AJ Mleczko: Panthers in six
Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs in six
Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs in seven
John Thoering: Panthers in six
Bob Wischusen: Panthers in six
Greg Wyshynski: Panthers in six

Consensus prediction: Panthers (20 of 23 picks)

Metropolitan Division

John Buccigross: Capitals in seven
Ryan Callahan: Capitals in seven
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Capitals in six
Sachin Chandan: Capitals in six
Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes in six
Ryan S. Clark: Capitals in seven
Linda Cohn: Capitals in six
Rachel Doerrie: Capitals in six
Ray Ferraro: Capitals in seven
Emily Kaplan: Capitals in seven
Tim Kavanagh: Capitals in six
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes in seven
Steve Levy: Capitals in five
Vince Masi: Hurricanes in six
Victoria Matiash: Hurricanes in six
Sean McDonough: Capitals in seven
Mark Messier: Hurricanes in six
AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes in five
Mike Monaco: Hurricanes in six
Arda Öcal: Capitals in six
Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes in six
John Thoering: Capitals in seven
Bob Wischusen: Capitals in seven
Greg Wyshynski: Capitals in seven

Consensus prediction: Capitals (16 of 24 picks)

Central Division

John Buccigross: Stars in seven
Ryan Callahan: Stars in five
Sachin Chandan: Stars in six
Ryan S. Clark: Stars in seven
Linda Cohn: Jets in seven
Rachel Doerrie: Stars in six
Ray Ferraro: Stars in six
Emily Kaplan: Stars in six
Tim Kavanagh: Stars in seven
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars in six
Steve Levy: Stars in seven
Vince Masi: Jets in seven
Victoria Matiash: Jets in seven
Sean McDonough: Stars in six
Mark Messier: Stars in six
Mike Monaco: Stars in six
Arda Öcal: Stars in six
Kristen Shilton: Stars in six
John Thoering: Stars in seven
Bob Wischusen: Jets in seven
Greg Wyshynski: Stars in six

Consensus prediction: Stars (17 of 21 picks)

Pacific Division

John Buccigross: Oilers in seven
Ryan Callahan: Golden Knights in six
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Oilers in seven
Sachin Chandan: Oilers in seven
Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights in seven
Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights in seven
Linda Cohn: Oilers in seven
Rachel Doerrie: Golden Knights in seven
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights in seven
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights in seven
Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights in six
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights in six
Steve Levy: Golden Knights in seven
Vince Masi: Oilers in six
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights in six
Sean McDonough: Golden Knights in seven
Mark Messier: Oilers in seven
AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights in six
Mike Monaco: Oilers in six
Arda Öcal: Oilers in six
Kristen Shilton: Oilers in seven
John Thoering: Golden Knights in seven
Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights in seven
Greg Wyshynski: Oilers in seven