Meta’s stock is wrapping up a record year, spurred by cost cuts that followed a disastrous 2022
More Videos
Published
1 year agoon
By
admin
Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks during the Meta Connect event at Meta headquarters in Menlo Park, California, on Sept. 27, 2023.
Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images
Last year at this time, Meta was navigating a crisis of confidence that had pushed its stock price to its lowest since 2016. Sales were dropping, TikTok was rising, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s bet-the-house wager on the metaverse was looking like a money pit.
Wall Street saw a very different story play out in 2023.
As of Friday’s close, Meta shares are up 178% for the year, on pace for their best year ever, topping the 105% jump in 2013, which was the year after Facebook’s IPO. The stock rose another 3% on Monday to $344.64, its highest in two years. It’s now just 10% below its record reached in September 2021, near the peak of the latest tech boom.
Among companies in the S&P 500, only chipmaker Nvidia had a better year, climbing 235% as of Friday.
Meta’s mega bounceback validates Zuckerberg’s declaration in early February that 2023 would be the company’s “year of efficiency” following the stock’s 64% plunge in 2022. Hefty cost cuts were at the top of his agenda, with Facebook’s parent company cutting more than 20,000 jobs and Zuckerberg acknowledging that economic challenges, stepped-up competition and advertising losses “caused our revenue to be much lower than I’d expected.”
After three straight quarters of declining sales last year, growth returned in 2023, and for the third quarter Meta recorded expansion of 23%, its sharpest increase in two years. The results were driven by a rebound in digital advertising and market share gains over rivals Alphabet and Snap.
The biggest catalyst, according to Longbow Asset Management CEO Jake Dollarhide, was Zuckerberg’s “change of attitude” and his willingness to listen to shareholder concerns instead of seemingly dismissing them in favor of his preferred mode of operation.
While Zuckerberg continues to invest heavily in the metaverse, which he sees as his company’s future, he’s refocused the business toward what actually matters today — advertising — and responded to investor concerns about out-of-control spending.
“It was the change in tone from Zuck,” Dollarhide said. “He went from thumbing his nose at shareholders” and talking about the billions he was spending on the metaverse “to listening and communicating in a different way,” Dollarhide added.
Plenty of challenges remain as the calendar turns to 2024.
Meta said in its latest earnings report that the digital ad market is still rocky, in part because advertisers are weighing the potential impact of the Israel-Hamas war. The company is also dealing with a number of new lawsuits that allege its products are harmful and addictive to children. And virtual reality continues to be a niche market, despite Meta’s hefty promotions of its new Quest 3 headsets.
“As long as the core business is humming along and is kind of improving, I think investors will probably continue to give them a pass,” said John Blackledge, an analyst at Cowen who recommends buying the stock.
Meta declined to provide a comment for this story.
Meta has now had well over two years to adapt to one of the most harmful changes to its business in the almost two decades since Zuckerberg started the company in his Harvard dorm room. In 2021, Apple updated its iPhone operating system in a way that gave users more control over how they could be targeted with ads. The update hit at the heart of Facebook’s ad business and resulted in the loss of billions of dollars of revenue.
As hard as Apple’s privacy changes hurt Facebook, they were equally devastating to other social media companies, most notably Snap. But Meta quickly got to work rebuilding its ad technology, with a major investment in artificial intelligence, and in the latest quarter reported much faster revenue growth than Google or Snap.
China has been a big part of the story. Susan Li, Meta’s finance chief, told analysts on the earnings call that online commerce and gaming “benefited from spend among advertisers in China reaching customers in other markets.” That means Chinese companies are spending heavily on Facebook and Instagram to send targeted advertising to the company’s billions of users around the world.
A Shein pop-up store inside a Forever 21 store in Times Square in New York on Nov. 10, 2023.
Yuki Iwamura | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JMP analysts estimate that e-commerce companies Temu and Shein, which both have roots in China, spent about $600 million and $200 million, respectively, on ads with Meta in the third quarter, leading to year-over-year growth of 44% from Asian advertisers.
In addition to Apple’s changes, Meta was also hurt in 2022 by the rapid rise of TikTok, which pioneered the short-video market, and a rotation out of tech stocks due to rising interest rates and surging inflation. All the while, Zuckerberg’s big bet on the metaverse continued to pile up billions of dollars in losses, underscoring the challenges of making virtual reality and augmented reality technologies appealing to mainstream consumers.
Altimeter Capital Chair and CEO Brad Gerstner wrote an open letter to Meta and Zuckerberg in October 2022 urging the company to “get fit and focused” by cutting staff and reducing metaverse investments.
Tom Champion, an analyst at Piper Sandler, told CNBC that Meta had to adjust to a rapidly changing reality. During Covid, digital media and e-commerce took off and, because the economy remained strong at the time, consumers and businesses had plenty of money to spend.
“We all extrapolated the growth trends around digital advertising that emerged during the pandemic, and Meta management invested behind that extrapolation of the trend as well,” said Champion, who has a buy rating on the stock. “The revenue picture changed a hell of a lot faster than cost.”
A few weeks after the Altimeter letter, Zuckerberg announced the first of what would be three rounds of layoffs affecting about 25% of the company’s workforce. Zuckerberg admitted to miscalculating what would happen when the economy reopened from the pandemic.
Reasons for skepticism
Meta’s initial round of layoffs in 2022 helped kickstart the stock’s rebound.
Then in February, Meta revealed that its total expenses for 2023 would be in the range of $89 billion to $95 billion, which was lower than its prior 2023 outlook of $94 billion to $100 billion.
The shares shot up 76% in the first quarter.
Ultimately, it appears as if expenses will be even lower than that revised number. Meta said in October that total costs for the year will be between $87 billion and $89 billion.
But, as Blackledge notes, Zuckerberg has so far largely spared the Reality Labs unit, which houses the company’s work in metaverse hardware and software. Meta said in its third-quarter report that operating losses in Reality Labs will “increase meaningfully year-over-year due to our ongoing product development efforts in augmented reality/virtual reality and our investments to further scale our ecosystem.”
The division lost $3.7 billion in the period and over $11 billion in the first nine months of the year.
Zuckerberg has spent much of the year touting Meta’s investments in AI, which has helped bolster its ad technology. Included in that conversation is the work Meta has done in building its large language model called Llama, which has gained popularity since OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot introduced the concept of generative AI to the mainstream.
“It’s a little tough for me to draw a line between a technology like Llama and the core business, but I think there are enough announcements and discussion and commentary from management to suggest that they are harnessing this technology in a lot of different ways,” Champion said.
Champion added that AI has helped Meta more efficiently operate its data centers, and he’s optimistic about the company’s use of AI to create more compelling digital assistants that could be useful for business messaging.
Despite Meta’s strong performance in 2023, Needham’s Laura Martin remains skeptical.
Martin has a sell rating on the stock, making her one of only two analysts tracked by FactSet without a buy or hold recommendation. She says 2024 will be a “cautionary tale” for the company because it still faces some major existential issues.
Meta doesn’t control a platform like Apple’s iOS or Google’s Android, which means it remains at risk of significant policy changes at those companies. While Meta eventually managed to weather Apple’s iOS privacy update through its AI investments, it now has to deal with Google’s upcoming plans to phase out third-party cookies in 2024, which will likely have a similarly weakening effect on its online ad business, Martin said.
“Cookie deprecation on Android is a big deal,” she said.
On top of that, Martin sees smart TVs as the area where advertisers are looking to divert spending as the major streaming platforms continue to pick up users who are abandoning linear television. That’s not Meta’s market.
Then there’s the influencer problem. Popular content creators are focusing their efforts on TikTok and YouTube, catering to younger audiences. A recent Pew Research Center study found that nearly 1 in 5 young adults say they use those video-streaming apps “almost constantly.”
TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, faces the risk of being shut down by U.S. lawmakers who have tried to make the case that it’s a national security concern. But that issue has been sidelined for months and in November a federal judge in Montana blocked a law that would have resulted in a statewide ban of TikTok starting in January.
Analysts aren’t expecting TikTok to go anywhere, meaning it will continue to pose a challenge to Meta.
“The regulators can’t get stuff done,” Martin said.
Piper Sandler’s Champion said he “personally can’t imagine in America where something like TikTok gets banned.” But he added, “Who knows — anything can happen.”
WATCH: Watch CNBC’s full interview with Liz Young, Sarat Sethi, Jim Lebenthal
You may like
Technology
Britain seeks to build homegrown rival to OpenAI in bid to become world leader in artificial intelligence
Published
13 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
admin
Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a media interview while attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, U.S. September 25, 2024.
Leon Neal | Via Reuters
LONDON — The U.K is looking to build a homegrown challenger to OpenAI and drastically increase national computing infrastructure, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government sets its sights on becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence.
Starmer is set to visit Bristol, England, on Monday to announce the pledge, which follows work done by British tech investor Matt Clifford to establish an “AI Opportunities Action Plan.” The plan aims to help the U.K. take advantage of the potential of AI.
The government is primarily seeking to expand data center capacity across the U.K. to boost developers of powerful AI models which rely on high-performance computing equipment hosted in remote locations to train and run their systems.
A target of increasing “sovereign,” or public sector, compute capacity in the U.K. by twentyfold by 2030 has been set. As part of that pledge, the government will begin opening access to the AI Research Resource, an initiative aimed at bolstering U.K. computing infrastructure.
Starmer’s administration last year canceled £1.3 billion of taxpayer-funded spending commitments towards two significant computing initiatives in order to prioritize other fiscal plans. The projects, an AI Research Resource and a next-generation “exascale” supercomputer, were pledges were made under Starmer’s predecessor, Rishi Sunak.
Sovereign AI has become a hot topic for policymakers, particularly in Europe. The term refers to the idea that technologies critical to economic growth and national security should be built and developed in the countries people are adopting them in.
To further bolster Britain’s computing infrastructure, the government also committed to setting up several AI “growth zones,” where rules on planning permission will be relaxed in certain places to allow for the creation of new data centers.
Meanwhile, an “AI Energy Council” formed of industry leaders from both energy and AI will be set up to explore the role of renewable and low-carbon sources of energy, like nuclear.
Building a challenger to OpenAI
The last major initiative the U.K. government proposed was to create homegrown AI “champions” of a similar scale to American tech giants responsible for the foundational AI models that power today’s generative AI tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
Britain plans to use the AI growth zones and a newly established National Data Library to connect public institutions — such as universities — to enhance the country’s ability to create “sovereign” AI models which aren’t reliant on Silicon Valley.
It’s worth highlighting that the U.K. faces serious challenges in its bid to create an effective OpenAI alternative. For one, several entrepreneurs in the country have bemoaned funding challenges that make it difficult for startups in the country to raise the kind of cash available to AI success stories.
Many U.K. founders and venture capitalists have called for the country’s pension funds to allocate a greater portion of their portfolios toward riskier, growth-focused startups — a reform the government has committed to pushing previously.
“In the U.K., there’s $7 trillion in this pocket,” Magnus Grimeland, CEO and founder of venture capital firm Antler, told CNBC in an interview last year. “Imagine if you take just 5% of that and allocate it to innovation — you solve the problem.”
U.K. tech leaders have nevertheless generally praised the government’s AI action plan. Zahra Bahrololoumi, Salesforce’s U.K. boss, told CNBC the plan is a “forward-thinking strategy,” adding she’s encouraged by the government’s “bold vision for AI and emphasis on transparency, safety and collaboration.”
Chintan Patel, Cisco’s chief technology officer in the U.K., said he’s “encouraged” by the action plan. “Having a clearly defined roadmap is critical for the UK to achieve its ambition to become an AI superpower and a leading destination for AI investment,” he said.
Britain doesn’t yet have formal regulations for AI. Starmer’s government has previously said it plans to draw up legislation for AI — but details remain thin.
Last month, the government announced a consultation on measures to regulate the use of copyrighted content to train AI models.
More generally, the U.K. is pitching a differentiated regulatory regime from the EU following Brexit as a positive factor — meaning, it can introduce regulatory oversight for AI but in a way that’s less strict than the EU, which has taken a more hard-line approach to regulating the technology with its AI Act.
Technology
What to expect from new crypto legislation on the crime prevention side of it
Published
21 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
admin
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S., July 27, 2024.
Kevin Wurm | Reuters
With the levers of power in Washington, D.C., about to change hands, a raft of pro-crypto legislation is expected from Congress and the Trump administration. To date, there’s been less focus on the cybersecurity side of the political effort, which could be an issue for crypto in relation to its popularity among a wary U.S. population.
Cryptocurrency, which includes not just bitcoin but ethereum, dogecoin, and others, has a faithful following among American adults. According to the Pew Research Center, 17% of American adults have traded in crypto, but that market share of American wallets has remained virtually unchanged since 2021. Meanwhile, according to a poll Pew conducted shortly before the election, 63% of adults say they have little to no confidence in crypto investing or trading, and don’t think cryptocurrencies are reliable and safe.
The incoming Trump administration has been touting its crypto bona fides, with a focus on the industry rather than the consumer.
“The No. 1 most important priority for the industry is to make sure they have a regulatory framework so that they can do business,” said Dusty Johnson (R-South Dakota), who helped author the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) that addresses the treatment of digital assets under U.S. law. The law passed in the House with bipartisan support but has not been taken up by the Senate.
FIT21 did contain specific crypto-cybersecurity provisions, which Johnson predicts will be built upon in the new administration.
Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture and a co-author of FIT21, says the cybersecurity provisions in the bill are still key in the upcoming administration.
“FIT21 requires important cybersecurity safeguards for financial intermediaries engaging with digital assets,” Thompson said in a statement to CNBC, adding that FIT21 includes explicit provisions to ensure that regulated firms take steps to evaluate and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities to protect both the services they offer and assets they hold on behalf of their customers.
“These cybersecurity requirements are critical for protecting digital asset markets and market participants,” Thompson said.
Some experts, however, doubt that there will be as much action on the security side of the legislation, given that crypto proponents are closely advising the Trump administration.
“Personnel is policy,” says Jeff Le, vice president of global government affairs and public policy at Security Scorecard and a former assistant cabinet secretary in the California governor’s office. The top ranks of the incoming economic team, made up of SEC Chair-designate Paul Atkins, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent, “have had a track record of supporting cryptocurrencies,” Le said.
Among other major posts in his second administration, President-elect Trump has appointed venture capital investor David Sacks to be his AI and crypto “czar.”
Crypto industry’s role in political realignment
The crypto industry donated significant sums to the 2024 election cycle, contributions that were not limited to the GOP, but focused more broadly on lawmakers with an industry-friendly view of crypto regulation. It’s likely that will continue to influence political calculations. The pro-crypto and bipartisan super PAC Fairshake and its affiliates have already raised over $100 million for the 2026 midterm elections, including commitments from Coinbase and Silicon Valley venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, an early backer of Coinbase. Top Andreessen Horowitz executives have been tapped for roles in the Trump administration.
“We have the most pro-crypto Congress ever [in] history, we have an extraordinarily pro-crypto president coming into office,” Faryar Shirzad, chief policy officer at Coinbase, recently told CNBC.
“It is rare to see cryptocurrency proponents advocate for increased regulation in the space, regardless of reason,” said Jason Baker, senior threat intelligence consultant at GuidePoint Security.
Baker says the anonymity and independence of cryptocurrency are often cited as primary benefits that legislation would curtail, and cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature makes it hard to regulate in a traditional sense.
“Given current signaling from the incoming administration and the interests of cryptocurrency proponents influential to the administration, we do not anticipate significant advances in cryptocurrency regulation within the next four years,” Baker said.
If there isn’t much action on regulation, there are some obvious ramifications for cybersecurity, he said, driven by the correlation between a pro-crypto Washington, D.C., and bullish bets by investors on digital assets.
“Cybercrime is often driven by benefits from increasing cryptocurrency value. In ransomware, for example, ransoms are commonly demanded in USD, but payments are made most frequently in bitcoin. When the value of bitcoin increases, cybercriminals will benefit,” Baker said.
The value of bitcoin has risen significantly over the past three months in what has been a risk-on market environment.
“Future de-emphasis on cryptocurrency regulation may positively signal that cybercrime operations in bitcoin remain viable and unlikely to suffer government disruption to operators in the space,” Baker said.
Cybercriminals have also been changing tactics to evade legislation and scrutiny, Baker added, switching to more under-the-radar cryptocurrencies like Monero.
Ransomware’s potential role in Congressional action
Baker predicts regulation centered on organizations issuing cryptocurrency payments — whether in the form of a ransom payment or for other purposes — is more likely achievable and palatable in the current regulatory environment.
“This could include, for example, increased requirements for reporting ransom payments when made, a policy which has been floated without gaining substantial traction in recent years,” Baker said. This approach can be argued as regulating end users and purposes rather than the underlying cryptocurrency itself.
In addition to ransomware payments to restore access to technology systems, there are other reasons why payment in cryptocurrency is common in digital extortion schemes, including to protect the identity and operational security of the criminal. Private organizations may also opt to use crypto to purchase leaked data or credentials which have been made available on illicit forums.
There could also be situations where private individuals attempt to report and receive payment for discovered vulnerabilities under a “bug bounty” program — whether voluntary or coerced (so-called “beg bounty”). They may request payment in cryptocurrency out of personal preference or general desire for privacy, and private organizations may or may not oblige.
“While there are doubtless other options for organizations to use cryptocurrency in some form, these are the primary forms we see on a regular or more frequent basis,” Baker said. “Though such actions would almost certainly have downstream impacts on cryptocurrency value by virtue of their impact on transaction volume,” Baker added.
Steve McNew, global leader of blockchain and digital assets at FTI Consulting, thinks some cyber-crypto legislation may happen, especially governing when a company victimized by a ransomware pays their attackers in cryptocurrency.
“There’s more than just public policy at issue,” said McNew. If a company has been compromised in a cyberattack and is required to make public disclosure of the ransoms it paid out, it can result in the company becoming a bigger future target for other criminal enterprises, McNew said. While it might make sense, on one hand, to provide disclosure as to where funds are going and what cryptocurrencies were used in a payment, doing so can put the company (and by extension its customers, employees and partners) in harm’s way.
“So, any policy decisions around cryptocurrency disclosures in this context will require balancing the need for transparency around the use of cryptocurrency in criminal matters alongside the risks such transparency might exacerbate,” McNew says.
Though FIT21 passed the House with broad bipartisan support, it did not address these issues specifically.
Le expects some legislation action that may attempt to address this topic. “The next Congress could see more traction for proposed legislation like Cryptocurrency Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2022, which allows companies to share information regarding cybersecurity threats with the federal government and with one another,” he said.
Le said Congress may also revisit the work of outgoing Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-North Carolina) and Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colorado) and the Ransomware and Financial Stability Act of 2024, which aimed at “strengthening the resilience of the U.S. financial system against ransomware attacks, establishing clear protocols for ransom payments, and ensuring that such payments, including those involving cryptocurrencies, are made within a controlled and legally compliant framework.”
But he added that it is unclear if the Trump administration will continue the Biden administration’s leadership role in the International Counter Ransomware Initiative, a 68-country coalition aimed at preventing the payments of ransomware.
The broader bitcoin governance battle
McNew says that many basic parameters surrounding crypto, even down to its definition, could hamstring legislation, even aspects of it intended to foster innovation and adoption of the industry.
“U.S. lawmakers have work to do in determining roles, responsibilities, and basic parameters for how the industry will be governed before any meaningful legislation can take hold,” McNew said. As an example, establishing a designated authority for digital assets is an imperative that has yet to be addressed.
Basic governance structure was a major sticking point during the Biden administration, and a primary reason Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler was a thorn in the side of the crypto industry.
“Lawmakers must decide whether responsibility will fall under the SEC, the CFTC, or another body. Issues around taxation and broker-dealer definitions for digital assets markets will also need to be defined and provided with a set of clear rules for legislation to be effective,” McNew said, adding that given how closely divided the House will be in the next session, it may be tough to craft an agreement.
Technology
Ahead of looming ban, TikTok creators ask fans to find them on Instagram or YouTube
Published
23 hours agoon
January 12, 2025By
admin
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Before Jack Nader started posting beauty videos on TikTok in 2023, he was working as a Starbucks barista in Chicago and living at home with his parents.
But after Nader, who’s now 21, started taking his videos seriously in April of that year, his TikTok account blew up. With more than half a million followers, he was able to generate enough income through brand sponsorships and his share of ad revenue that he quit his coffee shop gig and got his own apartment.
“This is my 9-to-5 job,” Nader, who said he makes between $1,000 and $12,000 per month as a creator, told CNBC. “This is what I do to make a living. This is how I pay for my groceries. This is how millions of small businesses make their money.”
Nader’s new reality, however, is far from stable. TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, is nearing a Jan. 19 deadline by which it has to be sold, or it faces a ban in the U.S. Like many other creators who have come to rely on TikTok, Nader has been urging his fans to find him on other social media apps before he potentially loses them altogether and the substantial income stream that they represent.
“Not everyone from my TikTok following is going to come over, and that’s really sad,” Nader said.
The TikTok risk has been present for years, but was amped up in April, after President Joe Biden signed a law that requires ByteDance to divest the short-form video app this month. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok in time, Apple and Google will be forced by law to ensure their platforms no longer support the app in the U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump, who favored a TikTok ban during his first administration, has since flip-flopped on the matter. Late last month, he urged the Supreme Court to intervene and forcibly delay implementation of Biden’s ban to give him time to find a “political resolution.” His inauguration is Jan. 20.
Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to turn after he met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in ByteDance who also owns a stake in the owner of Truth Social, Trump’s social media company.
The Supreme Court heard oral arguments from both sides on Jan. 10. During the more than two-hour session, justices peppered TikTok’s head lawyer with questions about the app’s ties to China and appeared generally unconvinced by TikTok’s main argument, that the law violates the free speech rights of its millions of individual users in the U.S.
On Thursday, businessman Frank McCourt’s internet advocacy group Project Liberty announced it had submitted a proposal to buy TikTok from ByteDance. Calling it, “The People’s Bid for TikTok,” the group said it would restructure the app to exist on an American-owned platform and prioritize users’ digital safety, though it didn’t disclose terms of its bid.
Jack Nader, 21 of Chicago, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun moving his content from the Chinese-owned app onto Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts.
Courtesy of Jack Nader
A ruling could come at an point. Nader isn’t waiting for a resolution to figure out what’s next.
He’s currently downloading four or five of his TikTok videos each day to save them as he migrates his content to Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts. After downloading the videos, Nader re-edits them, optimizing the clips for each app.
“It took me over a year and a half to build the following that I have right now on TikTok to make it my full time job,” Nader said. “Now it’s kind of about rebuilding that entire brand on another platform, which is not ideal.”
Nader said he isn’t yet making any money from Reels or Shorts.
‘This isn’t just a silly app’
Danisha Carter, 27, is in a similar spot. A resident of Los Angeles, Carter has been a full-time creator since 2021, posting social commentary and lifestyle videos. Although she’d known about the TikTok ban for months, she said she had a wake-up call in the middle of the night in November.
“I need to start taking this seriously before I lose access to the platform that I built and the followers that I built,” Carter said, recalling her panicked realization. “I need to not waste any more time.”
Carter, who previously worked in luxury retail, has ended her TikTok videos by telling her followers that they can find her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon.
“This isn’t just a silly app that people have been using to post dance videos,” said Carter, who makes about $4,000 per month on average from her TikTok activity. “It’s been remarkable in terms of changing people’s lives, changing people’s businesses.”
Danisha Carter, 27 of Los Angeles, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun ending her videos by asking her fans to follow her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon before the Jan. 19 law banning the Chinese-owned app takes effect.
Courtesy of Danisha Carter
TikTok could still find a way to stay operational in the U.S., but if the app does get suspended, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram are poised to be the biggest winners in the fallout, experts predict.
TikTok has about 115 million monthly active users in the U.S., well behind YouTube at 258 million and Facebook at 253 million, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Instagram has 131 million. Short videos, the kind that mimic clips on TikTok, are gaining viewership across those apps, accounting for about 41% of user time on Instagram, Sensor Tower data shows.
While TikTok has a smaller userbase in the U.S. and lower share of total ad dollars than its top rivals, it’s the dominant platform for creators, particularly those focused on short-form content.
Influencer marketing platform HyperAuditor defines a creator as a user with over 1,000 subscribers. TikTok has nearly 8.5 million people in the U.S. who fit that category, compared with about 5.2 million on Instagram and 1.1 million on YouTube, according to HyperAuditor.
Meanwhile, TikTok accounts for 9% of digital ad spend on social media platforms in the U.S., according to Sensor Tower, compared to 31% for Facebook, 25% for Instagram and 21% for YouTube.
Should TikTok go away, “this equates to billions of dollars potentially up in the air for competitors to seize,” Sensor Tower told CNBC in an email. Emarketer estimates that Meta and YouTube could grab about half of the reallocated dollars should a ban go into effect.
That type of market shift has taken place elsewhere. India banned TikTok in June 2020, when the app had about 150 million monthly users in the country. A year later, Instagram’s monthly active users in India had increased by 20% while YouTube’s had gone up 11% year-over-year, according to Sensor Tower estimates.
“That’s when we saw the biggest jump in Reels utilization ever,” said Meghana Dhar, a former Instagram executive who was at the company at the time of the India ban. “Should TikTok get banned and creators have to scramble, between YouTube Shorts and Instagram, a lot of creators are already hedging their bets.”
At Meta, leaders within Instagram scheduled numerous impromptu meetings on Friday after listening to the oral arguments before the Supreme Court, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. Though many within the company had long expected TikTok would remain active in the U.S., leaders at Instagram began directing their teams to prepare for a potential influx of users should the ban go through, said the person, who asked not to be named due to confidentiality.
(L-R) Sarah Baus of Charleston, S.C., holds a sign that reads “Keep TikTok” as she and other content creators Sallye Miley of Jackson, Mississippi, and Callie Goodwin of Columbia, S.C., stand outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building as the court hears oral arguments on whether to overturn or delay a law that could lead to a ban of TikTok in the U.S., on January 10, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Need to diversify
Kristina Nolan, vice president of media services at marketing agency DMi Partners, said the TikTok situation is the latest example of why social media creators should always be diversifying their followings.
“We’re consistently reminding them to create audience depth on other platforms,” said Nolan, whose agency works with more than 50,000 creators.
In recent weeks weeks, DMi has seen more of its creators start to migrate followers elsewhere in a variety of ways, Nolan said. But they have to be careful. Nolan said that some creators worry that TikTok will “shadow ban” them, or reduce their exposure to users, if the technology recognizes that they’re promoting profiles elsewhere.
Some creators will suggest followers find them on “fbook,” for example, rather than writing out Facebook. Others will bleep out just enough words to get the message to their followers while hoping to avoid TikTok’s detection, Nolan said. Some creators are teaming up with brands to incentivize users by holding prize giveaways for users who follow them on other apps, she added.
“They’re obviously not saying, ‘Come over to Instagram,'” Nolan said. “They’re like, ‘Go follow me on’ and they’re mouthing it.”
After working on a horse farm, Nealie Boschma, 27, was able to move to Los Angeles and live full-time as a creator after starting to post videos to TikTok in 2022.
Courtesy of Nealie Boschma
Even with multiple other options for finding large audiences, creators are worried about trying to rebuild their business and whether enough followers will migrate with them.
“Whatever is going to happen is going to happen, and we’re just going to make the most of it,” said Nealie Boschma, 27 of Los Angeles, who has been living as a full-time creator since 2022. “That’s just how I have to look at it, so I don’t panic.”
Despite the potential upheaval, Boschma, said she views the potential ban as an opportunity to expand her career and get more creative.
Boschma started making TikTok videos after quitting her job working on a horse farm, choosing to live off of her savings while experimenting as a creator. Boschma’s bet on herself worked and she’s earned enough to live in Los Angeles, paying for her own place and a car.
Now she’s making sure her TikTok fans see the links to her other profiles so they can find her on other apps, including YouTube. If the ban goes through, Boschma said she plans to make a video specifically asking her fans to follow her elsewhere.
It’s going to be quite a lift, as she currently has 2 million TikTok followers compared to just 278,000 on YouTube. But Boschma said she is going to try her hand at making longer-form videos, something she’s always wanted to explore.
“Whether TikTok goes away or not, I do think something will work out” Boschma said. “I’ll find my footing in other places, like I did on TikTok.”
WATCH: Supreme Court likely to uphold TikTok ban, says Christoff & Co. CEO Niki Christoff
Trending
-
Sports2 years ago
‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months ago
Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year ago
Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years ago
MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years ago
Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years ago
Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years ago
Bank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway