
Is Julian Sayin the next great Alabama quarterback?
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Paolo Uggetti, ESPNDec 19, 2023, 07:00 AM ET
CARLSBAD, Calif. — The way Julian Sayin played Madden was one of the very first tells.
At an early age, Dan Sayin noticed how his youngest son utilized motions, audibles and playcalls in the video game to fool the defense. When Pop Warner entered the picture, Dan and the other coaches found it easy to have 9-year-old Julian be part of a no-huddle offense with boards on the sideline signaling one of their 15 plays.
“They’re smarter than you think,” Dan said about Julian and his older brother Aidan, who quarterbacks for Penn. “Julian has always been very pragmatic, he’s never been indecisive, he’s always just moving forward.”
This is a kid who took his development into his own hands in middle school by messaging Danny Hernandez, a private quarterback trainer who has worked with 2023 NFL No. 1 draft pick Bryce Young and USC’s Caleb Williams, on Instagram and asking if he could come train. It didn’t take long for Hernandez to see how special Sayin could be. By eighth grade, plenty of others were taking note, filling up the family mailbox with offers. And eventually, at the end of his sophomore year, so did Alabama.
“They did offer late,” Dan said, which he said made him skeptical at first. “Getting one from Nick Saban was different. We used to root against Alabama, just because they were so good. But that’s also why you’d want to go there. When you have a pragmatic decision to make, you don’t want to go with the underdog.”
At one point this season, after losing to Texas and seemingly looking lost at the quarterback position, Alabama felt like the underdog for the first time in a while. Now, as signing day arrives, its situation has changed: Jalen Milroe has turned into one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and led the Tide back to the College Football Playoff after beating Georgia in the SEC championship. While Milroe announced he will return next season, Alabama’s long-term future still remains anchored to an 18-year-old who is No. 3 in the 2024 ESPN 300 (No. 1 among quarterbacks) and hails from a sleepy beach town about as far as you can get from Tuscaloosa.
Sayin may play the part of lanky surfer kid well, but his steadfastness in wanting to play at Alabama and face SEC competition has made him the ideal player for a program that has made its name on elite recruiting and development.
In fact, Sayin isn’t just enrolling early at Alabama; he visited with the team before the season to watch the Tide install their offense. The five-star is already living there, having moved in this past weekend. He will be with the team during its practices in the lead-up to its College Football Playoff semifinal matchup against Michigan.
“He’s not trying to be Alabama’s savior,” Sayin’s high school head coach, Thadd MacNeal, said. “But he wanted to play for Coach Saban. He wanted to play in a premier conference against the best players because that’s who he wants to be.”
IN THE LAST row of the Carlsbad High School football field bleachers, a group of kids has found a standing-room-only spot to commentate on the game below. They are fellow football players — some, hopeful ones — from other local high schools or junior high schools. One of the younger ones makes the sudden declaration.
“If Julian throws a touchdown pass on this next play, I’m gonna go to Carlsbad.”
It’s a cool October night at Carlsbad High School, 35 miles north of San Diego, and only about 35 football fields east of the Pacific. A place where you can feel the ocean, so even when you can’t see it, it’s easy to relax. But on this particular night, when it feels like the entire town has turned up for the homecoming game, the crowd is getting more tense by the minute.
Sayin’s Lancers are facing rival La Costa Canyon, which is wringing everything out of the night’s star player. Even without following the ball, it’s hard not to notice the 6-foot-2 Sayin, who stands tall among his teammates and opponents.
Watch him play long enough and you get the sense that, if Carlsbad wanted to, Sayin could drop back and make some kind of throw that would remind those in attendance who the best player on the field is. Instead, MacNeal opts for a more methodical approach: a pro-style offense that is balanced until it can’t be. That’s when Sayin makes magic happen.
On the next play after the quip from the top of the stands, Sayin obliges the young fan. Facing a long third down, he finds a cutting receiver down the field and the ensuing dime doesn’t just result in a first down, but a 37-yard touchdown.
The kid can’t believe it. “Oh my God, he did it!”
Every third or fourth down feels like an opportunity for Sayin to show just why he’s a five-star prospect heading to Alabama. A couple of drives later, Sayin casually launches a 50-yard throw that feathers its way into the hands of a receiver in the end zone. After going down by four points in the fourth quarter, he doesn’t flinch. Sayin leads a game-winning drive that ends with him throwing a 7-yard laser for a touchdown, taking off his helmet and showing more emotion than he has all game long.
“I’m a kid from a surfer town in Southern California, so I’m kind of just pretty laid back,” Sayin said in his San Diego drawl. “But I also have that fire and passion for the game.”
It takes a 443-yard, six-touchdown performance for Sayin’s Lancers to outlast their opponent. Without him, the result — and the Lancers’ ensuing 10-1 season — would not be the same.
“We can do things with him we can’t do with other quarterbacks,” said MacNeal, who also coached Sayin’s older brother. “He’s a very confident kid who has complete command of our offense.”
“He’s a player that knows how to generate power in small spaces,” Hernandez said. “He knows how to create angles and how to change up speed in order to put himself in the position to make every type of throw there is.”
MacNeal not only recognized Sayin’s potential but created an environment in which he could grow and flourish. That meant giving Sayin freedom within the offensive system, holding weekly film sessions and preparing him for the next stage of his career by trusting him with more than most.
“I know this offense pretty well now, and Coach Mac trusts me with being able to change plays and get us in the right situations and adjust on the fly,” said Sayin, who has started since his sophomore season. “I know to succeed at the next level, that’s what you have to do.”
As Hernandez explained, Sayin’s football IQ, spatial awareness and fluidity were already part of his résumé. MacNeal provided the system catered to feature Sayin’s skills while Hernandez continued to refine his fundamentals. Those traits, alongside miles of room to grow in his decision-making and athleticism, piqued then-Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien’s interest.
“Those guys say they love what we do [with our offense] because there’s a lot of crossover, even if it isn’t at the same volume,” MacNeal said. “If you watch [Sayin] on tape, he’s under center, he’s shotgun, we’re in RPO, we do play-action, we power run, we screen. They love that he moves around, that he goes through his progressions well. I’m lucky because I can do a lot with him.”
O’Brien took the lead on Sayin’s recruitment, explaining how Alabama’s offense thrived under Bryce Young and how Sayin would be utilized in a similar way. While O’Brien isn’t around to see it happen after taking the New England Patriots offensive coordinator job in 2022, it was Saban who delivered the lasting impression on Sayin and the rest of his inner circle.
“Saban really did his homework,” Hernandez said. “He was really able to point out a lot of details that he felt that Julian had in his game and how he fit and what they do there.”
“The whole pitch is, ‘You want to come here, we’d love to have you, but nobody’s gonna kiss your ass. You’re gonna work your ass off. You’re gonna play against the best and no place will prepare you better for the next level than Alabama. And if you want it, we’re here,'” Dan said of the recruiting experience with Alabama.
A COUPLE OF days after his impressive win over La Costa Canyon, Sayin is parked in front of the television at his home in Carlsbad. It’s Sunday and the Philadelphia Eagles are facing the Miami Dolphins, which means Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts are squaring off. The two former Alabama quarterbacks who were both part of the 2017 title-winning team are now two of the best quarterbacks at the highest level of the sport.
Sayin envisions himself there among players who share a college experience having been part of the program with the most first-round draft picks (41) since the turn of the century.
“What they do just translates to the NFL,” Sayin said. “I trust that surrounding me with the best players will give me the best opportunity to go make plays.”
There was a point during Sayin’s recruitment when his final destination was up in the air. According to Dan and MacNeal, Notre Dame was a close contestant. But once QB prospect C.J. Carr (the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr) committed to the Irish, Sayin focused on his preference to play in the SEC.
“He narrowed it down to Georgia, Bama and LSU,” Dan said. “If you want to go play against the best corners every week in practice and be protected by the best offensive linemen on Saturdays, those are three spots where you go.”
Alabama’s pitch appealed to Sayin. It wasn’t handing him a neatly packaged future with guaranteed starts or any delusions of grandeur. It was football-focused, while alluding to its national brand and the NIL potential that could come with success. Most importantly for Sayin, it offered him an opportunity to compete from the moment he stepped foot on campus. And hearing it from Saban — who Sayin and his father said is “the greatest coach in college football history” — made all the difference.
“It’s pretty cool, he’s kind of just like on TV,” Julian said of being recruited by Saban. “He’s not gonna tell you how much he needs you at Alabama or how much he wants you to go there. He’ll say we’ll definitely have you and give you the opportunity to go compete. But nothing’s gonna be given to you.”
Julian is all too familiar with the concept. From backyard games at an early age, he was always battling against Aidan, nipping at his heels in every competitive arena.
“He’s so comfortable in his own skin,” Hernandez said. “When he makes mistakes, he will always correct it on the next play, so he’s never really rattled. He’s a very confident kid who loves competition and knows he has to earn it, but feels like he can.”
As a result, Sayin has gone from a kid who didn’t play for a Southern California powerhouse to not flinching at the prospect of being the player Alabama wants as its future quarterback. Of course, the nature of college football makes nothing a guarantee, but Julian’s self-assuredness and attitude make him well-suited for whatever may come.
“I wanted to go to a place where nothing was really given to me,” Julian said. “I gotta go earn my spot.”
Mistakes and growing pains will surely arrive. Dan said Alabama has already pointed out that its nutritionists will help Julian bulk up in preparation to face SEC defenses. MacNeal, meanwhile, knows that while some concepts may be similar, the speed at which things happen at Division I could be a culture shock. For Sayin, however, the struggle will be part of the experience, one that will be far different from anything he has seen bouncing between beach towns in San Diego County. It’s what he signed up for once he said yes to the Tide.
“It’ll definitely be different from what I’m used to,” Sayin said of moving across the country. “But I’m also excited to go be somewhere where it’s all football, all the time.”
With no more waves for Sayin to catch, Tuscaloosa awaits.
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Sports
The secret to Corey Perry’s continued playoff success at age 40
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2 hours agoon
May 25, 2025By
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Ryan S. ClarkMay 25, 2025, 07:30 AM ET
Close- Ryan S. Clark is an NHL reporter for ESPN.
DALLAS — Imagine having a career that’s so strong that you’re not even aware that your next goal further enhances your Hall of Fame résumé.
That’s Corey Perry at the moment — and here’s why. His five goals during the 2025 playoffs have placed him in a tie for the second-most goals among the Edmonton Oilers. It further reinforces the narrative that the Oilers might be the deepest of the four remaining teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
It does something else too. Although each of his five goals has come with its own sense of significance, Perry’s next playoff goal will be even more special, because he’ll be tied with the legendary Jean Béliveau for the most postseason goals by a player in their age-39 season, according to QuantHockey.
“I think it’s just a love for the game. That’s why I want to play the game for as long as I can,” Perry said. “Once this game passes you by, it’s over, it’s done. There’s no coming back and I’ll move onto something else. That’s why what I want to do is play hockey, have fun and just be part of something.”
Postseasons create champions, challengers — and those who wish they could be either one. They create nostalgia for those who have won a title and are seeking another, and yearning for those who have yet to lift a Stanley Cup.
This particular postseason has provided Perry with the opportunity to grab one more before he eventually calls it a career. He is one of just 30 players that is part of the Triple Gold Club: winning a Stanley Cup, an Olympic Gold medal and the IIHF Men’s World Championship.
While this is still technically his age-39 season, he did turn 40 back on May 16. That makes him the second-oldest player still remaining in the playoffs, behind Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns.
Perry made his NHL debut on Oct. 5, 2005. He scored his first career goal five days later against the Oilers. He has since gone on to score 447 more, register more than 900 points and added a Hart Trophy as regular-season MVP, in a career that is either the same age or older than current young NHL stars such as Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith.
The notion that Perry’s career is now old enough to play in the NHL adds to the discussion about how and why he is able to perform at such a high level at a time in which more teams are trying to get younger.
“He’s been around so long that he understands that you need to find a role,” Oilers defenseman Troy Stecher said. “He won a Hart Trophy when he was in Anaheim, and he was the best player in the league then. Anyone coming here understands that [Connor McDavid] and [Leon Draisaitl] are probably going to get the majority of power-play time and offensive draws.
“I think with being the player he is and being around for so long, he’s done such a good job of finding a role and excelling in that role. Not just accepting it, but thriving in it.”
OPTIONS ARE EVERYTHING in the postseason. Possessing as many of them as possible enhances a team’s chances of winning.
Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch explained that the veteran winger provides the team with additional line combinations because of his versatility. He can be used on the fourth line or the top line, which is a prime example of how the Oilers have tapped into their depth to reach consecutive conference finals.
That’s when something else becomes clear: Playing Perry alongside Draisaitl and McDavid gives the Oilers three Hart Trophy winners on a single line.
It’s a distinction that no other active lineup in the NHL can claim.
“Throughout the playoffs, we’ve moved him around the lineup with Leon and Connor or just with Leon or with [Mattias] Janmark,” Knoblauch said. “Whatever position he’s been in, whether it’s the first or fourth line, he’s been able to give us quality minutes.”
0:20
Corey Perry gives Oilers 2-0 lead with his second goal
Corey Perry scores his second goal of the first period to give the Oilers a 2-0 lead over the Golden Knights.
A player doesn’t get to be an eight-time 30-goal scorer without talent for finishing scoring chances. At 30 years old, he had 34 goals in 82 games in the 2015-16 season, but he scored a combined 36 goals in the next two seasons — which signaled that he might need to reconfigure how he gets those goals going forward.
Perry started to operate more in a bottom-six role in which he was asked to provide more secondary and tertiary goals than that of a primary scorer. A sign that he was gaining comfort in that new role was when he reached double figures twice with the Tampa Bay Lightning (2021-22 and 2022-23).
It’s why the Oilers acquired him last season as they sought to add more depth in their eventual run to the Stanley Cup final with the idea he could return in 2024-25.
QuantHockey’s data shows that there have been 136 players who have had an age-39 season in NHL history. Perry’s 19 goals this season is the same amount that Jaromir Jagr scored in his age-39 campaign in 2011-12. Perry played 81 games this season, which ties him for 10th place with Brett Hull (2003-04).
Of the 27 players who have scored more goals in their age-39 season than Perry, 12 scored more than nine power-play goals. In Perry’s case, he did the majority of his work away from the power play, with 13 of them coming in 5-on-5 play. Perry is tied with Patrick Marleau and Gary Roberts, as they all had four goals with the extra-skater advantage.
“He’s reliable because he’s smart. He can read the play,” Knoblauch said. “Obviously, the speed isn’t there like other players. But he thinks at it so much better than others. One [thing] Corey is really good at is scoring goals. This year being pretty much in a fourth-line role to score 19 goals. I’m not sure how many he had on the power play in the regular season, but it was very low. For him to do that in his role says a lot.”
STARTING HIS CAREER with the Anaheim Ducks gave Perry the platform to become one of the best players of his generation, win a Stanley Cup and become someone whom Oilers teammate Evander Kane said is a future Hall of Famer.
It also gave him a front-row seat to study how future Hall of Famers such as Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger and Teemu Selanne prolonged their careers.
Niedermayer played until he was 36. Pronger made it to 37, whereas Selanne became one of 12 players in NHL history to play until he was 43.
“When you’re 22 years old, you’re sitting back and just watching. You don’t really do any of it but you might do some of it,” Perry said. “But when you see them do it everyday and continue to do it and when you get to a certain age, you’ve got to put in the work. If you don’t, these young guys coming in are bigger, faster and stronger, and you’ve got to keep up and do it at a high level.”
Every generation of players has its life cycle. Perry was part of the famed 2003 NHL draft class that gave the league future stars such as Patrice Bergeron, Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Marc-Andre Fleury, Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Pavelski, Zach Parise, Brent Seabrook, Eric Staal, Ryan Suter and Burns.
At one point, each of those aforementioned players were franchise cornerstones, and many won Stanley Cups. For the reverence they earned, they also understood what came with aging in a way previous generations didn’t quite encounter in the same way.
The group entered the NHL at a time in which younger players didn’t receive the most minutes, nor were they paid the most money. It’s a complete contrast to the contemporary landscape in which teams place a premium on younger players being trusted in key roles early, which then translates to signing bigger contracts.
A byproduct of that shift was that it heightened the expectations for players of a certain age to meet a physical threshold by placing a premium on body maintenance. It’s why many of them were able to play beyond age 35 by taking on various roles on their respective teams — and not necessarily on the top line or pairing.
Even then, there are limits. Parise and Pavelski retired at the end of last season not having won a Stanley Cup. Fleury, who won three Cups, announced his retirement this season. Burns, Perry and Suter are still active. So what’s the secret?
“It’s the off-ice work. It’s dietary. It’s everything,” Perry said. “It’s just about doing those different things that you can to keep your body in the best shape.”
0:46
Corey Perry tips in power-play goal for the Oilers
Corey Perry gets the Oilers on the board with a power-play goal in the second period.
Kane, who turns 34 in August, said that as someone on the back half of his career, he’s starting to understand that age is just a number. But, there are advantages to having older players in a dressing room because of their range of experiences.
Over the past two years, the Oilers have been the oldest team in the NHL. Elite Prospects lists them as having an average age of 30, while last season’s team averaged 29.2 years. Possessing that much experience has fed into a blueprint in which 11 of the players that the Oilers dressed in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals have more than 70 games of playoff experience.
Four Oilers — Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl and McDavid — have combined to appear in 342 playoff games. Perry has 227 games of postseason experience.
Another detail that the 6-foot-3 and 205-pound Perry provides to the Oilers is size. The Oilers are the fifth-tallest and fifth-heaviest team in the NHL. The team that was tallest and heaviest this season was the Vegas Golden Knights — a club that the Oilers beat in five games in order to advance to the Western Conference finals.
“With Pears, he’s been really good and really good in front of the net,” Kane said. “He’s been scoring some big, key goals at key moments for us which is obviously huge. He’s a guy that’s going to be in the Hall of Fame someday, right? He’s been a superstar player in the league for some time.
“When you have that type of pedigree and you’ve been in the league that long, you understand how to play the game and when you have different skill sets, not just one, you’re able to contribute in different ways and he’s able to do that.”
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Stars-Oilers Game 3 preview: Which team wins this pivotal showdown?
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2 hours agoon
May 25, 2025By
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We’ve got a series, folks! The Edmonton Oilers rallied back from a 6-3 loss in Game 1 in dominant fashion, winning Game 2 over the Dallas Stars 3-0.
That sets up a pivotal Game 3 in the Western Conference finals Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+), as both teams look to gain an edge.
Here are notes on the matchup from ESPN Research, as well as betting intel from ESPN BET:
More from Game 2: Recap | Grades
Matchup notes
Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers
Game 3 | 3 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+
With the series tied 1-1, the series winner odds on ESPN BET have flipped: The Oilers are now -140 favorites (previously +160), and the Stars are +120 (previously -190). The Oilers’ Cup winner odds are now +200 (+350 after Game 1), while the Stars’ are now +325 (+200 after Game 1). Connor McDavid (+300) has the second-shortest odds to win the Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky tops that table at +250.
The Oilers are 9-2 in their past 11 games this postseason after beginning the playoffs 0-2 and have run their record to 3-2 in Games 2 of a conference finals/Stanley Cup semifinals after losing the series opener. The other wins were in 1987 and 1991.
The Stars were shut out for the fourth time this postseason. No team has ever been shut out four times prior to reaching the Stanley Cup Final. The most was three, done by the 1950 Detroit Red Wings, 1997 Red Wings, 2012 New Jersey Devils … and 2020 Stars.
By blanking the Stars in Game 2, Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner recorded a shutout in his first three wins of a postseason, the ninth goaltender to pull off that feat. The previous eight: Marty Turco in (2007, Stars), Nikolai Khabibulin (2004, Tampa Bay Lightning), Ed Belfour (2004, Toronto Maple Leafs), Patrick Lalime (2002, Ottawa Senators), Brent Johnson (2002, St. Louis Blues), Martin Brodeur (1995, Devils), Turk Broda (1950, Maple Leafs), Dave Kerr (1940, New York Rangers)
Leon Draisaitl and McDavid are the fourth set of teammates in the past 25 years with 20 points in consecutive postseasons, joining Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh Penguins, 2008-09), Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel (Penguins, 2017-18) as well as Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point (Lightning, 2020-2021). The Penguins won the Cup in two of those seasons (2009, 2017), while the Lightning won in both 2020 and 2021.
Edmonton defenseman Evan Bouchard registered his 23rd career multipoint playoff game, all in the last four seasons. This is the most in a four-postseason span by a defenseman in Stanley Cup playoffs history — the old record was 22, by current Oilers assistant coach Paul Coffey.
Stars winger Mikko Rantanen failed to score a goal for the fifth consecutive game after scoring nine in a previous six-game span this postseason. The five-game goalless drought is Rantanen’s second-longest streak in his tenure with Dallas, behind a seven-game streak from March 14-26. Rantanen has one goal in seven games vs. the Oilers this season (two with Colorado, one with Carolina, four with Dallas).
Heading into Game 3, Miro Heiskanen has 13 career multipoint games in the playoffs, tied with Sergei Zubov for the most by a defenseman in North Stars/Stars franchise history.
Stars goalie Jake Oettinger is climbing the leaderboard for playoff wins by a U.S.-born netminder. His 32 are tied for fourth with Jon Casey and Frank Brimsek, behind Tom Barrasso (61), Jonathan Quick (49) and Mike Richter (41).
Scoring leaders
GP: 13 | G: 6 | A: 14
GP: 15 | G: 9 | A: 11
Sports
Which NL powerhouse has the edge? Sizing up 7 games in 14 days between the Dodgers and Mets
Published
2 hours agoon
May 25, 2025By
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Jorge Castillo
CloseJorge Castillo
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
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Alden Gonzalez
CloseAlden Gonzalez
ESPN Staff Writer
- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
May 23, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are about to see a whole lot of each other.
The defending World Series champions and the team they beat to win the National League pennant last fall play three games this weekend at Citi Field and four games at Dodger Stadium starting June 2. For those of you scoring at home, that’s seven matchups in a span of 14 days.
Both teams enter Friday’s opener in back-and-forth battles for first place in their respective divisions. How will their head-to-head play dictate the state of the NL East and West? Will they clash again come October? And who has the edge — both for now and if/when they cross paths in the playoffs?
ESPN MLB writers Jorge Castillo (based in New York) and Alden Gonzalez (based in Los Angeles) answer a few key questions about the Mets and Dodgers.
What has stood out most to you about each team’s strong start to the season?
Castillo: The starting rotation was identified as the Mets’ weakness before the season, especially after Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas sustained injuries during spring training. That has not been the case so far. Instead, the Mets own the best rotation ERA in the majors with a quintet of Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning toeing the rubber. The group has stumbled recently, and its innings total ranks in the bottom half of the majors. But the collective performance has allowed the Mets to overcome slow starts from various position players — most notably, Juan Soto.
Gonzalez: The emergence of three young players in particular: Dalton Rushing, Hyeseong Kim and Andy Pages. Rushing, the team’s most promising prospect outside of Roki Sasaki, torched Triple-A and prompted the Dodgers to cut ties with their longtime backup catcher, Austin Barnes. Kim, signed out of South Korea last offseason, did the same, then performed so well in the majors the Dodgers swallowed the remaining $13 million or so in Chris Taylor’s contract. Pages, meanwhile, went from being uncertain if he’d crack the Opening Day roster to establishing himself as an everyday player.
Their success underscores what has made the Dodgers the Dodgers: No matter how bloated their payroll, how poor their draft position or how often they trade prospects for veterans, they always seem to have that next wave coming.
Despite all the positives so far, what is your biggest concern about each team?
Castillo: Regression seems inevitable for the Mets’ starting rotation (unless it’s going to maintain an ERA under 3 all season). Add that to the recent bullpen injuries — namely losing A.J. Minter for the season — and the defense’s troubles, and run prevention could become a bigger issue for the Mets as the season progresses. Defensive lapses were apparent during last weekend’s Subway Series against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium, when Mark Vientos made two errors that cost runs and Pete Alonso’s errant throw allowed the go-ahead run to score in the finale. Francisco Lindor, a perennial Gold Glove contender, hasn’t been himself at shortstop, and the corner outfield spots are below average. It’s a recipe that would call for more offense.
Gonzalez: When the Dodgers concluded their fourth homestand of the season earlier this week, 14 pitchers resided on their injured list — seven in the rotation, seven in the bullpen. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Sasaki are all nursing shoulder injuries with nebulous timetables, severely compromising the rotation and forcing the bullpen to lead the majors in innings. That bullpen, meanwhile, is without four critical high-leverage options in Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates, leaving Dodgers manager Dave Roberts with few, if any, trusted right-handed options to hold leads late. Dodgers pitchers continue to get hurt at an alarming rate. And not even this team can overcome that rate of injury.
Who is one x-factor who could make or break each team’s season?
Castillo: Soto, by most standards, is not having a bad season at the plate. Many players would gladly take an OPS over .800. But he signed a $765 million contract to be one of the best hitters in the sport, and he’s been far from one of those. If Soto can unlock his usual form, and there’s nothing in his track record to suggest he won’t, the Mets’ lineup becomes a different animal. Soto, at his best, makes hitters around him better. He works pitchers. He shuffles and he swaggers. The Mets haven’t seen that version yet. The body language isn’t quite right and the production isn’t there. That’ll need to change for them to become legitimate pennant contenders in a loaded National League.
Gonzalez: Shohei Ohtani has been just as much an offensive force as he was last year, when he became the first full-time designated hitter to collect an MVP Award. But there’s a whole other half waiting to be unlocked. Ohtani is going through his pitching progression slowly. At this point it doesn’t seem as if he’ll join the rotation until sometime in July at the earliest — 22 months after his second UCL repair. The Dodgers backed him off his progression ahead of the season opener, they say, in hopes of not wearing him out and providing him with the best chance of being a factor in October. If he looks anything like he did on the mound from 2021 to 2023, he will be.
Who has tougher competition to win their division: The Mets in the NL East or the Dodgers in the NL West?
Castillo: The NL West has more playoff contenders (four to three), but the quality of competition in the NL East is better. The Philadelphia Phillies, the defending division champs, arguably have the best starting rotation in the majors with an experienced lineup that has been through it all. And the Atlanta Braves are back on track, reaching .500 after their ugly 0-7 start to the season, without much contribution from their two best players. Spencer Strider, activated from the injured list this week, has made only two starts. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn’t played in a game yet. All three teams are real October threats.
Gonzalez: It’s the NL West, because that fourth legitimate playoff contender could end up making a big difference in a tight race. The Mets still have a combined 16 games remaining against the rebuilding Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Dodgers can only beat up on the Colorado Rockies, who they’ll face 10 more times. And while the Phillies are great and the Braves are more dangerous than their record indicates, one can make a case for the San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants all being just as good, if not better. Of even more relevance is what the Dodgers will face in the ensuing weeks — 26 straight games against teams with a winning record, with the last 10 coming against division rivals.
These teams play seven times in the next 14 days. Give us your prediction for the series and the stars.
Castillo: This is shaping up to be a battle between a struggling pitching staff (Dodgers) and a struggling offense (Mets). Let’s go with Dodgers 4, Mets 3, because the Dodgers have one more home game. The Dodgers’ big three of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will power them to a season series victory.
Gonzalez: Betts got off to a slow start offensively, but he recently unlocked something in his swing and has started to round back into form of late. He’ll put his imprint on these matchups, but the Mets will win most of the games for a simple reason: On days when Yoshinobu Yamamoto does not pitch, the Dodgers don’t really know what they’ll get from their starting pitchers.
Which pitching rotation will be better come October: The Dodgers’ star-studded but oft-injured group or the Mets’ currently producing but lesser-known starters?
Castillo: It’s not even Memorial Day. These rotations could look completely different come October. But, for now, I’ll take the Dodgers. They’re bound to have at least a few of those star pitchers healthy for the postseason. If not, something went terribly, terribly wrong.
Gonzalez: The Dodgers’ priority this offseason wasn’t Soto. It was Snell. They chased him early and lavished him with $182 million because they knew pairing Snell with Glasnow and Yamamoto would give them a devastating trio for October. If those three are available then, I’m taking the Dodgers. But there’s no telling if that will be the case.
If these teams earn a rematch of the 2024 NLCS this October, who are you taking and why?
Castillo: Assuming health, the Dodgers because they’re better in every department.
Gonzalez: The Mets played the Dodgers tough last year, then signed the new Ted Williams. The Dodgers beat them despite a shorthanded rotation, then added arguably the two most coveted starting pitchers in Snell and Sasaki. Now the Mets and Dodgers are separated by one game, with near-identical run differentials. More than four months of the regular season remain. I plead the Fifth.
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