Connect with us

Published

on

An attendee wears a Meta Platforms Inc. Oculus Quest 2 virtual reality (VR) headset at the Telefonica SA stand on day two of the Mobile World Congress at the Fira de Barcelona venue in Barcelona, Spain, on Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023.

Angel Garcia | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Meta is spending billions of dollars a quarter to fulfill CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s dream of a futuristic virtual world that he calls the metaverse.

Despite the company’s commitment to making its founder’s dream come true, the virtual reality market is contracting.

Sales of VR headsets and augmented reality glasses in the U.S. plummeted nearly 40% to $664 million in 2023, as of Nov. 25, according to data shared with CNBC by research firm Circana. That’s a much steeper drop than last year, when sales of AR and VR devices slid 2% to $1.1 billion.

The two-year decline underscores Meta’s continuing challenge in bringing the immersive technology out of a niche gaming corner and into the mainstream. While Zuckerberg said, in announcing Facebook’s pivot to Meta in late 2021, that it would likely take a decade to reach a billion users, he may need to start showing more optimistic data to appease a shareholder base that’s been critical of the company’s hefty and risky investments.

Thus far, there hasn’t been a breakout success — or killer app — to validate Zuckerberg’s vision. Meta’s Reality Labs unit, which is developing VR and AR technologies, lost $3.7 billion in the third quarter on sales of $210 million. In total, the division has lost about $25 billion since the beginning of 2022, shortly after Zuckerberg renamed his company.  

Meta declined to provide a comment for this story but pointed to a blog post on Monday from Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth, who runs Reality Labs. Bosworth called artificial intelligence and the metaverse Meta’s “two long-term bets on technologies of the future,” and said they’re beginning to “intersect in the form of products accessible to huge numbers of people.”

“Making long-term bets on emerging technologies isn’t easy,” Bosworth wrote. “It’s not guaranteed to work, and it’s certainly not cheap. It’s also one of the most valuable things a technology company can do — and the only way to remain relevant over the long run.”

Meta is currently the leader in the VR market, with sales of its Quest-branded headsets representing the bulk of the U.S. market by a large margin, said Ben Arnold, Circana’s consumer technology analyst. Sony released its second-generation PlayStation VR2 headset earlier this year but hasn’t picked up much market share due in part to the device’s reliance on the PlayStation 5 video game console, Arnold said.

Sony didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Arnold attributed the market’s rough year to a dearth of new stand-alone VR headsets that could excite users and a continued lack of a breakout app that has wide appeal among mainstream consumers.

Meta debuted the Quest 3 VR in October, starting at $499, or $200 more than where the predecessor Quest 2’s base model was initially priced in 2020. Sales have at least been strong enough to help lift the VR market during the pivotal holiday period, even if the year overall has been week.

Andrew Bosworth, Chief Technology Officer of Facebook, speaks during Meta Connect event at Meta headquarters in Menlo Park, California on September 27, 2023.

Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images

During an eight-week period spanning October and November, sales of VR headsets in the U.S. were $271 million, a 42% jump from the $191 million generated during the same period last year, Circana data showed.

Arnold said that the design and appeal of VR headsets has significantly improved over the years, and that “the products are progressing along a timeline that makes sense.”

“If there’s a challenge there, it’s how do you get great content for this hardware, how do pull some of those levers that enable a developer to put more resources into building a game or some kind of experience,” Arnold said. “That’s a little bit about the economics, and it’s about how many people are gravitating towards this platform or this particular device, and if I’m a developer, is that worth my while.”

Meta is hoping the Quest 3 will inspire developers to create compelling apps and games that utilize the device’s so-called passthrough feature, which allows for augmented reality experiences that mix digital graphics with real-world experiences. Numerous developers who attended Meta’s Connect conference in September said the passthrough technology represented an upgrade from the Quest 2.

Bosworth wrote in his blog post that, “Within months of the Meta Quest 3 launch, seven of the top 20 apps are mixed reality apps.” He added that Meta is “seeing strong signals that people really value these experiences.”

Bosworth said Meta is testing generative AI technologies in its newest Ray-Ban smart glasses to help people translate foreign languages “or come up with a funny caption for a photo you’ve taken.”

“Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses will let AI see the world from our perspective for the first time,” he wrote.

The company’s second-generation Ray-Ban glasses were released in October with a starting price of $299. Meta is hoping the devices offer another path for Zuckerberg to realize his metaverse vision, which has thus far been tethered to Quest headsets.

Here comes Apple

Heading into 2024, the big wild card for the VR market is Apple.

In June, Apple unveiled its Vision Pro mixed-reality headset, which is slated to hit the market next year at a starting price of $3,499.

The premium price suggests Apple is targeting early adopters, developers and companies as potential customers, VR developers told CNBC at Meta’s Connect event. VR enthusiasts are excited about Apple’s first headset, considering the company’s smashing success with consumer devices, and Vision Pro’s potential to integrate with products like the iPhone and iPad.

Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The Vision Pro’s debut could also play a pivotal role in bolstering the fledging VR and AR market in 2024, according to research from IDC. In a September news release about the state of the market, Ramon Llamas, IDC research director, said, “Apple’s entry next year will bring much needed attention to a small market, but it will also force other companies to compete in different ways.”

Andrew Boone, an analyst at JMP Securities, said he was initially so impressed by Apple’s Vision Pro demos that he began to worry about Meta’s future in the market.

His thought at first was, “Apple was so far ahead that maybe Meta would just throw in the towel,” Boone said.

“I think my tone on that has changed,” he said. “I think the price was too high to actually get mass demand, so Zuck is going after a different version of this. Clearly, the Quest is more game focused.”

Apple CEO Tim Cook: We're excited about what we're seeing from Vision Pro developer labs

Boone says there’s “enough differentiation” between the Quest and Vision Pro devices that they can cater to different crowds, though he expects to learn a lot more about the VR market over the next 12 months.

Rolf Illenberger, CEO of German VR startup VRdirect, said companies are excited about the Vision Pro “because it’s Apple,” but there’s a perception that it’s more of a “lifestyle” device. Apple’s demos highlighted more entertainment-friendly uses like the ability to watch movies on a giant virtual display. Apple describes the Vision Pro as a “spatial computer,” capable of blending the physical world with digital content and visuals.

“That product is premium, so it also got people thinking about what does an ultra-premium experience look like and what are the use cases that arise from that,” said Circana’s Arnold.

High hopes for the enterprise

Illenberger sees the potential for Meta’s Quest 3 to make a splash in the enterprise for tasks like workforce training, onboarding and marketing. He noted that the device is $500 cheaper than the Quest Pro, which was released in 2022 as more of a business-focused device, and has many of the same features.

The consumer is more challenging. Aside from “early adopters and hardcore gaming kids,” Illenberger says, “there’s not enough convincing arguments to spend even $500 on VR.”

In the corporate VR market, Meta and Taiwan’s HTC are the leading suppliers of devices. Pico-branded headsets from TikTok parent ByteDance “are losing more and more ground,” Illenberger said. ByteDance has reportedly canceled the next version of its Pico headset and is instead shifting resources to another device more similar to Apple’s Vision Pro.

ByteDance didn’t respond to a request for comment.

When it comes to selling to businesses, Illenberger says Meta is starting to benefit from its name change in late 2021. He said that Zuckerberg’s rebranding has had a “psychological” impact on some companies who feel more more comfortable purchasing the devices without the tarnish of Facebook’s brand and the numerous associated data privacy scandals

“Rebranding the company to Meta was a genius move,” Illenberger said. “Not because he’s claiming the market for his company, but people more and more forget that Meta is in fact Facebook.”

WATCH: Meta, IBM launch new coalition

Meta and IBM launch AI alliance with more than 50 other companies

Don’t miss these stories from CNBC PRO:

Continue Reading

Technology

Britain seeks to build homegrown rival to OpenAI in bid to become world leader in artificial intelligence

Published

on

By

Britain seeks to build homegrown rival to OpenAI in bid to become world leader in artificial intelligence

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer gives a media interview while attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarters in New York, U.S. September 25, 2024.

Leon Neal | Via Reuters

LONDON — The U.K is looking to build a homegrown challenger to OpenAI and drastically increase national computing infrastructure, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government sets its sights on becoming a global leader in artificial intelligence.

Starmer is set to visit Bristol, England, on Monday to announce the pledge, which follows work done by British tech investor Matt Clifford to establish an “AI Opportunities Action Plan.” The plan aims to help the U.K. take advantage of the potential of AI.

The government is primarily seeking to expand data center capacity across the U.K. to boost developers of powerful AI models which rely on high-performance computing equipment hosted in remote locations to train and run their systems.

A target of increasing “sovereign,” or public sector, compute capacity in the U.K. by twentyfold by 2030 has been set. As part of that pledge, the government will begin opening access to the AI Research Resource, an initiative aimed at bolstering U.K. computing infrastructure.

Starmer’s administration last year canceled £1.3 billion of taxpayer-funded spending commitments towards two significant computing initiatives in order to prioritize other fiscal plans. The projects, an AI Research Resource and a next-generation “exascale” supercomputer, were pledges were made under Starmer’s predecessor, Rishi Sunak.

Sovereign AI has become a hot topic for policymakers, particularly in Europe. The term refers to the idea that technologies critical to economic growth and national security should be built and developed in the countries people are adopting them in.

To further bolster Britain’s computing infrastructure, the government also committed to setting up several AI “growth zones,” where rules on planning permission will be relaxed in certain places to allow for the creation of new data centers.

Meanwhile, an “AI Energy Council” formed of industry leaders from both energy and AI will be set up to explore the role of renewable and low-carbon sources of energy, like nuclear.

Why Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta are investing in nuclear power

Building a challenger to OpenAI

The last major initiative the U.K. government proposed was to create homegrown AI “champions” of a similar scale to American tech giants responsible for the foundational AI models that power today’s generative AI tools such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Britain plans to use the AI growth zones and a newly established National Data Library to connect public institutions — such as universities — to enhance the country’s ability to create “sovereign” AI models which aren’t reliant on Silicon Valley.

It’s worth highlighting that the U.K. faces serious challenges in its bid to create an effective OpenAI alternative. For one, several entrepreneurs in the country have bemoaned funding challenges that make it difficult for startups in the country to raise the kind of cash available to AI success stories.

Many U.K. founders and venture capitalists have called for the country’s pension funds to allocate a greater portion of their portfolios toward riskier, growth-focused startups — a reform the government has committed to pushing previously.

“In the U.K., there’s $7 trillion in this pocket,” Magnus Grimeland, CEO and founder of venture capital firm Antler, told CNBC in an interview last year. “Imagine if you take just 5% of that and allocate it to innovation — you solve the problem.”

U.K. tech leaders have nevertheless generally praised the government’s AI action plan. Zahra Bahrololoumi, Salesforce’s U.K. boss, told CNBC the plan is a “forward-thinking strategy,” adding she’s encouraged by the government’s “bold vision for AI and emphasis on transparency, safety and collaboration.”

Chintan Patel, Cisco’s chief technology officer in the U.K., said he’s “encouraged” by the action plan. “Having a clearly defined roadmap is critical for the UK to achieve its ambition to become an AI superpower and a leading destination for AI investment,” he said.

Britain doesn’t yet have formal regulations for AI. Starmer’s government has previously said it plans to draw up legislation for AI — but details remain thin.

Last month, the government announced a consultation on measures to regulate the use of copyrighted content to train AI models.

More generally, the U.K. is pitching a differentiated regulatory regime from the EU following Brexit as a positive factor — meaning, it can introduce regulatory oversight for AI but in a way that’s less strict than the EU, which has taken a more hard-line approach to regulating the technology with its AI Act.

Continue Reading

Technology

What to expect from new crypto legislation on the crime prevention side of it

Published

on

By

What to expect from new crypto legislation on the crime prevention side of it

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S., July 27, 2024.

Kevin Wurm | Reuters

With the levers of power in Washington, D.C., about to change hands, a raft of pro-crypto legislation is expected from Congress and the Trump administration. To date, there’s been less focus on the cybersecurity side of the political effort, which could be an issue for crypto in relation to its popularity among a wary U.S. population. 

Cryptocurrency, which includes not just bitcoin but ethereum, dogecoin, and others, has a faithful following among American adults. According to the Pew Research Center, 17% of American adults have traded in crypto, but that market share of American wallets has remained virtually unchanged since 2021. Meanwhile, according to a poll Pew conducted shortly before the election, 63% of adults say they have little to no confidence in crypto investing or trading, and don’t think cryptocurrencies are reliable and safe. 

The incoming Trump administration has been touting its crypto bona fides, with a focus on the industry rather than the consumer.

“The No. 1 most important priority for the industry is to make sure they have a regulatory framework so that they can do business,” said Dusty Johnson (R-South Dakota), who helped author the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21) that addresses the treatment of digital assets under U.S. law. The law passed in the House with bipartisan support but has not been taken up by the Senate.

FIT21 did contain specific crypto-cybersecurity provisions, which Johnson predicts will be built upon in the new administration.

Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pennsylvania), Chairman of the House Committee on Agriculture and a co-author of FIT21, says the cybersecurity provisions in the bill are still key in the upcoming administration.

“FIT21 requires important cybersecurity safeguards for financial intermediaries engaging with digital assets,” Thompson said in a statement to CNBC, adding that FIT21 includes explicit provisions to ensure that regulated firms take steps to evaluate and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities to protect both the services they offer and assets they hold on behalf of their customers.

“These cybersecurity requirements are critical for protecting digital asset markets and market participants,” Thompson said.

Rep. French Hill on crypto: We need a market structure for digital assets

Some experts, however, doubt that there will be as much action on the security side of the legislation, given that crypto proponents are closely advising the Trump administration.

“Personnel is policy,” says Jeff Le, vice president of global government affairs and public policy at Security Scorecard and a former assistant cabinet secretary in the California governor’s office. The top ranks of the incoming economic team, made up of SEC Chair-designate Paul Atkins, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary-designate Scott Bessent, “have had a track record of supporting cryptocurrencies,” Le said.

Among other major posts in his second administration, President-elect Trump has appointed venture capital investor David Sacks to be his AI and crypto “czar.”

Crypto industry’s role in political realignment

The crypto industry donated significant sums to the 2024 election cycle, contributions that were not limited to the GOP, but focused more broadly on lawmakers with an industry-friendly view of crypto regulation. It’s likely that will continue to influence political calculations. The pro-crypto and bipartisan super PAC Fairshake and its affiliates have already raised over $100 million for the 2026 midterm elections, including commitments from Coinbase and Silicon Valley venture fund Andreessen Horowitz, an early backer of Coinbase. Top Andreessen Horowitz executives have been tapped for roles in the Trump administration.

“We have the most pro-crypto Congress ever [in] history, we have an extraordinarily pro-crypto president coming into office,” Faryar Shirzad, chief policy officer at Coinbase, recently told CNBC.

“It is rare to see cryptocurrency proponents advocate for increased regulation in the space, regardless of reason,” said Jason Baker, senior threat intelligence consultant at GuidePoint Security.

Baker says the anonymity and independence of cryptocurrency are often cited as primary benefits that legislation would curtail, and cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature makes it hard to regulate in a traditional sense.

“Given current signaling from the incoming administration and the interests of cryptocurrency proponents influential to the administration, we do not anticipate significant advances in cryptocurrency regulation within the next four years,” Baker said.

If there isn’t much action on regulation, there are some obvious ramifications for cybersecurity, he said, driven by the correlation between a pro-crypto Washington, D.C., and bullish bets by investors on digital assets.

“Cybercrime is often driven by benefits from increasing cryptocurrency value. In ransomware, for example, ransoms are commonly demanded in USD, but payments are made most frequently in bitcoin. When the value of bitcoin increases, cybercriminals will benefit,” Baker said.

Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

hide content

The value of bitcoin has risen significantly over the past three months in what has been a risk-on market environment.

“Future de-emphasis on cryptocurrency regulation may positively signal that cybercrime operations in bitcoin remain viable and unlikely to suffer government disruption to operators in the space,” Baker said.

Cybercriminals have also been changing tactics to evade legislation and scrutiny, Baker added, switching to more under-the-radar cryptocurrencies like Monero.

Ransomware’s potential role in Congressional action

Baker predicts regulation centered on organizations issuing cryptocurrency payments — whether in the form of a ransom payment or for other purposes — is more likely achievable and palatable in the current regulatory environment.

“This could include, for example, increased requirements for reporting ransom payments when made, a policy which has been floated without gaining substantial traction in recent years,” Baker said. This approach can be argued as regulating end users and purposes rather than the underlying cryptocurrency itself.

In addition to ransomware payments to restore access to technology systems, there are other reasons why payment in cryptocurrency is common in digital extortion schemes, including to protect the identity and operational security of the criminal. Private organizations may also opt to use crypto to purchase leaked data or credentials which have been made available on illicit forums.

There could also be situations where private individuals attempt to report and receive payment for discovered vulnerabilities under a “bug bounty” program — whether voluntary or coerced (so-called “beg bounty”). They may request payment in cryptocurrency out of personal preference or general desire for privacy, and private organizations may or may not oblige.

“While there are doubtless other options for organizations to use cryptocurrency in some form, these are the primary forms we see on a regular or more frequent basis,” Baker said. “Though such actions would almost certainly have downstream impacts on cryptocurrency value by virtue of their impact on transaction volume,” Baker added.

Steve McNew, global leader of blockchain and digital assets at FTI Consulting, thinks some cyber-crypto legislation may happen, especially governing when a company victimized by a ransomware pays their attackers in cryptocurrency.

“There’s more than just public policy at issue,” said McNew. If a company has been compromised in a cyberattack and is required to make public disclosure of the ransoms it paid out, it can result in the company becoming a bigger future target for other criminal enterprises, McNew said. While it might make sense, on one hand, to provide disclosure as to where funds are going and what cryptocurrencies were used in a payment, doing so can put the company (and by extension its customers, employees and partners) in harm’s way.

“So, any policy decisions around cryptocurrency disclosures in this context will require balancing the need for transparency around the use of cryptocurrency in criminal matters alongside the risks such transparency might exacerbate,” McNew says.

Though FIT21 passed the House with broad bipartisan support, it did not address these issues specifically.

Le expects some legislation action that may attempt to address this topic. “The next Congress could see more traction for proposed legislation like Cryptocurrency Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2022, which allows companies to share information regarding cybersecurity threats with the federal government and with one another,” he said.

Le said Congress may also revisit the work of outgoing Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry (R-North Carolina) and Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colorado) and the Ransomware and Financial Stability Act of 2024, which aimed at “strengthening the resilience of the U.S. financial system against ransomware attacks, establishing clear protocols for ransom payments, and ensuring that such payments, including those involving cryptocurrencies, are made within a controlled and legally compliant framework.”

But he added that it is unclear if the Trump administration will continue the Biden administration’s leadership role in the International Counter Ransomware Initiative, a 68-country coalition aimed at preventing the payments of ransomware.

The broader bitcoin governance battle

McNew says that many basic parameters surrounding crypto, even down to its definition, could hamstring legislation, even aspects of it intended to foster innovation and adoption of the industry.

“U.S. lawmakers have work to do in determining roles, responsibilities, and basic parameters for how the industry will be governed before any meaningful legislation can take hold,” McNew said. As an example,  establishing a designated authority for digital assets is an imperative that has yet to be addressed.

Basic governance structure was a major sticking point during the Biden administration, and a primary reason Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler was a thorn in the side of the crypto industry.

“Lawmakers must decide whether responsibility will fall under the SEC, the CFTC, or another body. Issues around taxation and broker-dealer definitions for digital assets markets will also need to be defined and provided with a set of clear rules for legislation to be effective,” McNew said, adding that given how closely divided the House will be in the next session, it may be tough to craft an agreement. 

Continue Reading

Technology

Ahead of looming ban, TikTok creators ask fans to find them on Instagram or YouTube

Published

on

By

Ahead of looming ban, TikTok creators ask fans to find them on Instagram or YouTube

Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Before Jack Nader started posting beauty videos on TikTok in 2023, he was working as a Starbucks barista in Chicago and living at home with his parents. 

But after Nader, who’s now 21, started taking his videos seriously in April of that year, his TikTok account blew up. With more than half a million followers, he was able to generate enough income through brand sponsorships and his share of ad revenue that he quit his coffee shop gig and got his own apartment. 

“This is my 9-to-5 job,” Nader, who said he makes between $1,000 and $12,000 per month as a creator, told CNBC. “This is what I do to make a living. This is how I pay for my groceries. This is how millions of small businesses make their money.”

Nader’s new reality, however, is far from stable. TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, is nearing a Jan. 19 deadline by which it has to be sold, or it faces a ban in the U.S. Like many other creators who have come to rely on TikTok, Nader has been urging his fans to find him on other social media apps before he potentially loses them altogether and the substantial income stream that they represent.

“Not everyone from my TikTok following is going to come over, and that’s really sad,” Nader said. 

The TikTok risk has been present for years, but was amped up in April, after President Joe Biden signed a law that requires ByteDance to divest the short-form video app this month. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok in time, Apple and Google will be forced by law to ensure their platforms no longer support the app in the U.S.

President-elect Donald Trump, who favored a TikTok ban during his first administration, has since flip-flopped on the matter. Late last month, he urged the Supreme Court to intervene and forcibly delay implementation of Biden’s ban to give him time to find a “political resolution.” His inauguration is Jan. 20.

Trump’s rhetoric on TikTok began to turn after he met in February with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in ByteDance who also owns a stake in the owner of Truth Social, Trump’s social media company.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments from both sides on Jan. 10. During the more than two-hour session, justices peppered TikTok’s head lawyer with questions about the app’s ties to China and appeared generally unconvinced by TikTok’s main argument, that the law violates the free speech rights of its millions of individual users in the U.S.

On Thursday, businessman Frank McCourt’s internet advocacy group Project Liberty announced it had submitted a proposal to buy TikTok from ByteDance. Calling it, “The People’s Bid for TikTok,” the group said it would restructure the app to exist on an American-owned platform and prioritize users’ digital safety, though it didn’t disclose terms of its bid.

Jack Nader, 21 of Chicago, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun moving his content from the Chinese-owned app onto Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts.

Courtesy of Jack Nader

A ruling could come at an point. Nader isn’t waiting for a resolution to figure out what’s next.

He’s currently downloading four or five of his TikTok videos each day to save them as he migrates his content to Meta’s Instagram Reels and Alphabet’s YouTube Shorts. After downloading the videos, Nader re-edits them, optimizing the clips for each app. 

“It took me over a year and a half to build the following that I have right now on TikTok to make it my full time job,” Nader said. “Now it’s kind of about rebuilding that entire brand on another platform, which is not ideal.”

Nader said he isn’t yet making any money from Reels or Shorts.

‘This isn’t just a silly app’

Danisha Carter, 27 of Los Angeles, is a full-time TikTok creator who has begun ending her videos by asking her fans to follow her on YouTube, Instagram and Patreon before the Jan. 19 law banning the Chinese-owned app takes effect.

Courtesy of Danisha Carter

TikTok could still find a way to stay operational in the U.S., but if the app does get suspended, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram are poised to be the biggest winners in the fallout, experts predict.

TikTok has about 115 million monthly active users in the U.S., well behind YouTube at 258 million and Facebook at 253 million, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Instagram has 131 million. Short videos, the kind that mimic clips on TikTok, are gaining viewership across those apps, accounting for about 41% of user time on Instagram, Sensor Tower data shows.

While TikTok has a smaller userbase in the U.S. and lower share of total ad dollars than its top rivals, it’s the dominant platform for creators, particularly those focused on short-form content.

Influencer marketing platform HyperAuditor defines a creator as a user with over 1,000 subscribers. TikTok has nearly 8.5 million people in the U.S. who fit that category, compared with about 5.2 million on Instagram and 1.1 million on YouTube, according to HyperAuditor.

Meanwhile, TikTok accounts for 9% of digital ad spend on social media platforms in the U.S., according to Sensor Tower, compared to 31% for Facebook, 25% for Instagram and 21% for YouTube.

Should TikTok go away, “this equates to billions of dollars potentially up in the air for competitors to seize,” Sensor Tower told CNBC in an email. Emarketer estimates that Meta and YouTube could grab about half of the reallocated dollars should a ban go into effect.

That type of market shift has taken place elsewhere. India banned TikTok in June 2020, when the app had about 150 million monthly users in the country. A year later, Instagram’s monthly active users in India had increased by 20% while YouTube’s had gone up 11% year-over-year, according to Sensor Tower estimates. 

“That’s when we saw the biggest jump in Reels utilization ever,” said Meghana Dhar, a former Instagram executive who was at the company at the time of the India ban. “Should TikTok get banned and creators have to scramble, between YouTube Shorts and Instagram, a lot of creators are already hedging their bets.”

At Meta, leaders within Instagram scheduled numerous impromptu meetings on Friday after listening to the oral arguments before the Supreme Court, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. Though many within the company had long expected TikTok would remain active in the U.S., leaders at Instagram began directing their teams to prepare for a potential influx of users should the ban go through, said the person, who asked not to be named due to confidentiality.

(L-R) Sarah Baus of Charleston, S.C., holds a sign that reads “Keep TikTok” as she and other content creators Sallye Miley of Jackson, Mississippi, and Callie Goodwin of Columbia, S.C., stand outside the U.S. Supreme Court Building as the court hears oral arguments on whether to overturn or delay a law that could lead to a ban of TikTok in the U.S., on January 10, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Andrew Harnik | Getty Images

Need to diversify

After working on a horse farm, Nealie Boschma, 27, was able to move to Los Angeles and live full-time as a creator after starting to post videos to TikTok in 2022.

Courtesy of Nealie Boschma

Even with multiple other options for finding large audiences, creators are worried about trying to rebuild their business and whether enough followers will migrate with them.

“Whatever is going to happen is going to happen, and we’re just going to make the most of it,” said Nealie Boschma, 27 of Los Angeles, who has been living as a full-time creator since 2022. “That’s just how I have to look at it, so I don’t panic.”

Despite the potential upheaval, Boschma, said she views the potential ban as an opportunity to expand her career and get more creative. 

Boschma started making TikTok videos after quitting her job working on a horse farm, choosing to live off of her savings while experimenting as a creator. Boschma’s bet on herself worked and she’s earned enough to live in Los Angeles, paying for her own place and a car.

Now she’s making sure her TikTok fans see the links to her other profiles so they can find her on other apps, including YouTube. If the ban goes through, Boschma said she plans to make a video specifically asking her fans to follow her elsewhere.

It’s going to be quite a lift, as she currently has 2 million TikTok followers compared to just 278,000 on YouTube. But Boschma said she is going to try her hand at making longer-form videos, something she’s always wanted to explore. 

“Whether TikTok goes away or not, I do think something will work out” Boschma said. “I’ll find my footing in other places, like I did on TikTok.”

WATCH: Supreme Court likely to uphold TikTok ban, says Christoff & Co. CEO Niki Christoff

Supreme Court likely to uphold TikTok ban, says Christoff & Co. CEO Niki Christoff

Continue Reading

Trending