Published
11 months agoon
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adminMore than a year after the federal government first cut off her disability benefits, Denise Woods drives nightly to strip malls, truck stops, and parking lots around Savannah, Georgia, looking for a safe place to sleep in her Chevy.
This story is part of the Overpayment Outrage series onCox Media GroupTV stations. It can be republished for free. Overpayment Outrage
Social Security has been overpaying billions of dollars to people, many on disability then demanding the money back, even if the government made mistakes, an investigation by KFF Health News and Cox Media Group revealed. The reporting has triggered harsh criticism in Congress and led to an investigation by the agency.Read More Share Your Story
Do you have an experience with Social Security overpayments youd like to share? Click here to contact our reporting team.Contact us
Woods, 51, said she had rented a three-bedroom house she shared with her adult son and grandson until March 2022, when the government terminated her disability payments without notice.
According to letters sent by the Social Security Administration, the agency determined it had been overpaying Woods and demanded she send back nearly $58,000.
Woods couldnt come up with the money. So, until February 2026, the agency is withholding the $2,048 in disability she would have received each month.
I still dont know how it happened, said Woods, who has requested a waiver and is seeking a hearing. No one will give me answers. It takes weeks or months to get a caseworker on the phone. They have made my life unbearable.
Kilolo Kijakazi, acting commissioner of the Social Security Administration, told a congressional subcommittee in October that her agency notifies recipients when they have received overpayments and works to help those who want to establish repayment plans or who seek waiver of the debt.
But relief from overpayments goes to only a relatively small number of people. And many others face dire consequences: Some become homeless, are evicted from rental housing, or see their mortgages fall into foreclosure.
The SSA has a painful legacy of excluding Black people from benefits. Today the agencys own published research shows its overpayments most often hit Black and Hispanic people, the poorest of the poor, those with the least education, and those whose medical conditions are unlikely to improve.
Woods is one of millions who have been targeted in the Social Security Administrations attempt to claw back billions of dollars it says was wrongly sent to beneficiaries. Years can pass before the agency catches a mistake, and even the little bit extra it might send each month can add up.
In reclaiming it, the government is imposing debts that can reach tens of thousands of dollars against those least able to pay.
(WHIO, Dayton)
Wreaking Havoc in Peoples Lives
KFF Health News and Cox Media Group reporters interviewed people who have received overpayment notices and nonprofit attorneys who advocate for them and reviewed SSA publications, policy papers, and congressional testimony.
A 64-year-old Florida man said he could no longer afford rent after his Social Security retirement payments were garnished last year because he allegedly had been overpaid $35,176 in disability benefits. He said he now lives in a tent in the woods. A 24-year-old Pennsylvania woman living with her mother and younger siblings in public housing lost the chance to buy her own home because of an alleged $6,063 overpayment that accrued when she was a child.
Social Security overpayments are wreaking havoc in peoples lives, said Jen Burdick, an attorney with Community Legal Services of Philadelphia, which represents clients who have received overpayment notices. They are asking the poorest among us to account for every dollar they get. Under their rules, some people can save up money for a funeral burial but not enough to get housing.
Woods has lupus and congestive heart failure and struggles to walk, but she started working part-time after her benefits were rescinded. She said she makes $14 an hour transporting railroad crew members in her 2015 Chevy Equinox between Savannah and Jacksonville, Florida, when she can get assignments and her health allows it.
The SUV costs $386 a month a large portion of her income but without it, Woods said, she would not have a job or a place to sleep.
My life is just survival now, Woods said. Sometimes I feel like I am just waiting to die. Woods drives nightly to strip malls, truck stops, and parking lots around Savannah, Georgia, looking for a safe place to sleep in her Chevy.(Cox Media Group)
The Social Security Administration has said it is required by law to attempt to recover overpayments. Notices ask beneficiaries to repay the money directly. Authorities can also recoup money by reducing or halting monthly benefits and garnishing wages and federal tax refunds.
Agency officials describe an orderly process in which they explain to beneficiaries the reason for the overpayment and offer the chance to appeal the decision and have the charges waived if they cannot afford it. One way to qualify for a waiver is if paying us back would mean you could not pay your bills for food, clothing, housing, medical care or other necessary expenses, according to a letter sent to one recipient.
Those most impacted by Social Securitys decisions, including people with disabilities and widows receiving survivors benefits, paint a different picture. They talk about having their benefits terminated without explanation or warning, an appeals process that can drag on for years, and an inability to get answers from the SSA to even basic questions.
Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, a group that pushes for the protection and expansion of the program, recalled how stressful it was when a colleagues mother received an overpayment notice.
After weeks of nonstop phone calls, he was able to get the matter resolved, but not before it put his mother in the hospital, Altman said. One can just imagine how much worse it would be for someone for whom English is not their native language, who lacks a high school education, and who is unassisted by such a knowledgeable and caring advocate.
Problems surrounding the Social Security Administration are aggravated by congressional actions, including funding shortages that brought agency staffing to a 25-year low by the end of fiscal year 2022. Even so, advocates for people with disabilities say the agency does far less than it could to help people who have been overpaid, often through no fault of their own.
They said challenges faced by beneficiaries underscore how overpayments disproportionately impact Black people and other minority groups even as President Joe Biden and Social Security leaders promise to fix racial inequity in government programs.
Most overpayments are linked to the Supplemental Security Income program, which gives money to people with little or no income who are disabled, blind, or at least 65. The majority of SSI recipients are Black, Hispanic, or Asian people.
Congress has turned a blind eye to this, said David Weaver, a former associate commissioner for research, demonstration, and employment support at the SSA. Politicians just want to save money. It is misplaced priorities. It is completely inexcusable. Email Sign-Up
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The Social Security Administration did not make its leaders available for an interview. Spokesperson Nicole Tiggemann declined to answer questions about the cases of Woods and other beneficiaries, citing privacy laws.
In a written statement, Tiggemann acknowledged that receiving an overpayment notice can be unsettling, but said the agency helps beneficiaries navigate the process and informs them of their rights if they believe they were not at fault or cannot repay the debt.
Even if they do not want to appeal or request a waiver, the notice says to contact us if the planned withholding would cause hardship, Tiggemann said. We have flexible repayment options including repayment of as low as $10 per month. Each persons situation is unique, and we handle overpayments on a case-by-case basis.
Critics say fighting an overpayment notice is not that simple.
Beneficiaries many challenged by physical, mental, or intellectual disabilities often are overwhelmed by complex paperwork or unable to find financial documents that may be years old.
The Social Security Administration has the authority to waive overpayments if officials determine recovering them would violate equity and good conscience, or the disputed amount falls below certain thresholds. The agencys guidance also says collecting an overpayment defeats the purpose when the individual needs substantially all of their current income to meet their current ordinary and necessary living expenses.
Advocates for people with disabilities contend most overpayments arise from delays in processing paperwork and errors by the Social Security Administration or recipients making innocent mistakes. The agency can waive overpayments when the beneficiary is found not at fault.
But in fiscal year 2023, the Social Security Administration collected about $4.9 billion in overpayments with an additional $23 billion yet uncollected, according to an agency report. Just $267 million was waived, the report said.
David Camp, the interim chief executive officer of the National Organization of Social Security Claimants Representatives, which advocates for improvements in federal disability programs, said the Social Security Administration is a broken structure.
The agency sometimes tries to claw back overpayments from people falsely accused of failing to provide required documents, Camp said.
Dropping off forms at their field offices is not a guarantee paperwork will be processed, he said. Mail is slow, or it doesnt get opened. We see it so many times you are left with the idea that has to do with the structure.
(WFXT, Boston)
Left Destitute
Advocacy groups and others said they dont know how many people become homeless after their benefits are terminated, but they say anecdotal accounts are common.
A study found that more than 800,000 disability applicants from 2007 to 2017 experienced homelessness. Advocates say it only makes sense that overpayments could lead more people to become homeless, since nearly 40% of people receiving disability benefits experience food insecurity and cannot keep up with their rent and utility bills, according to research.
Ronald Harrell sleeps in the woods near Wildwood, Florida, about 50 miles northwest of Orlando. He said he shelters in a tent, cooks his meals on a small grill, and showers at a friends house.
Harrell, 64, said he rented a room in a house for $125 a week until last year, when the Social Security Administration cut off his retirement benefits.
A letter the SSA sent him, dated Feb. 6, 2023, says his benefits are being withheld because of overpayment of $35,176 that accrued when Harrell received disability payments. The letter acknowledges he has asked the agency to lower his payments.
I dont know how they are doing this to me, Harrell said. I did everything by the law.
Harrell said he once worked as an HVAC technician, but nerve damage left him unable to work sometime around 2002.
He said he collected disability benefits until about 2009, when rehabilitation allowed him to return to the workforce, and he said he reported the information to the federal government. Harrell said he applied for early Social Security retirement benefits last year when his health again declined.
I started working when I was 16, Harrell said. I never thought my life would be like this.
Kijakazi, the acting Social Security commissioner, and others have said overpayments stem at least partly from low staffing and budget cuts.
From 2010 to 2023, the agencys customer service budget dropped by 17%, after inflation, according to a report by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank that conducts research on government programs.
At the same time, the report says, the number of Social Security beneficiaries grew by nearly 12 million people, or 22%.
Jonathan Stein, a former attorney with Community Legal Services of Philadelphia who has participated in workgroups and meetings with federal officials about access to Social Security payments for vulnerable populations, said budget cuts cannot fully account for the agencys penchant for denying applications and terminating benefits.
Officials suspended Supplemental Security Income benefits for about 136,540 people in 2019 for failure to furnish report, which means they did not meet deadlines or paperwork requirements, Stein said, despite knowing many of those people were unable to contact the agency because they are homeless or have been evicted and lost access to phones and computers.
Thats more than double the number in 2010, he said.
They have an implicit bias for denying benefits, Stein said. It is a very skewed view of integrity. It reinforces a culture of suspicion and prosecution of applicants.
The 24-year-old Pennsylvania woman who received Supplemental Security Income as a child because of a learning disability described her ordeal on the condition that her name not be published. A letter from the Social Security Administration says she received an overpayment notice for more than $6,000.
It was frustrating, the woman said. You are dealing with nasty people on the phone. I couldnt get any answers.
In November 2022, she contacted a nonprofit law firm, which helped her file an appeal. One year later, she received another letter from Social Security saying the overpayment had been waived because it was not her fault. The letter also said officials would not seek repayment because she could not afford basic needs such as food and housing without the monthly benefits.
The woman had already paid a price.
She lived in public housing and the Philadelphia Housing Authority had offered her a chance to fulfill a long-held goal of owning a house. But when the overpayment appeared on her credit report, she said, she could not obtain a mortgage.
I was excited about getting my own home, she said. Thats what everybody wants. Losing it is not a good feeling.
David Hilzenrath of KFF Health News, Jodie Fleischer of Cox Media Group, and Ben Becker of ActionNewsJax in Jacksonville, Florida, contributed to this report.
Do you have an experience with Social Security overpayments youd like to share? Click here to contact our reporting team.
Fred Clasen-Kelly: fredck@kff.org, @fred_ckelly Related Topics Aging Health Care Costs Multimedia Disabilities Florida Georgia Homeless Investigation Overpayment Outrage Pennsylvania Video Contact Us Submit a Story Tip
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Sports
CFP Anger Index: Better call Paul — the committee is disrespecting the SEC
Published
3 hours agoon
November 13, 2024By
admin-
David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterNov 12, 2024, 09:05 PM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
The committee has released its second crack at the top 25, and it’s (almost) all Big Ten at the top.
That might seem a bit strange to the conference that boasts the most playoff-caliber teams and the most nonconference wins against other Power 4 leagues, and also has Paul Finebaum there to remind everyone just how angry they should be at this affront to good judgment.
With that, we’ll handle much of Finebaum’s homework for him. Here’s this week’s Anger Index.
1. The SEC
Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, and one thing seems abundantly clear: The SEC is the best conference in college football. Take a look at Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, for example, where nine of the top 17 teams are from the SEC. Or use ESPN’s FPI metric, where the SEC has spots 1, 2, 4, 5 and 9. Consider that the team currently ninth in the SEC standings, South Carolina, has three wins over SP+ top-40 teams and losses to the committee’s No. 10 and 22 teams by a combined total of five points.
Yes, the SEC’s dominance and depth seem obvious.
So, of course, four of the top five teams in the committee’s rankings this week are from the SEC.
Wait, no, sorry about that. We’re getting late word here that, in fact, it’s the Big Ten with teams No. 1, 2, 4 and 5 in this week’s rankings.
It’s not that those four Big Ten teams aren’t any good. Oregon (No. 1) has chewed up and spit out nearly all comers this season. Ohio State (No. 2) is the best squad the gross domestic product of Estonia can buy. Penn State (No. 4), well, the Nittany Lions still haven’t beaten Ohio State, but we assume the rest of the résumé is OK. Indiana (No. 5) is blowing the doors off people.
But that’s it. The rest of the Big Ten is a mess. You need a magnifying glass to find Michigan‘s QB production. Iowa finally learned how to score and somehow has gotten worse. Minnesota looked like the next-best team in the conference, and the Gophers have losses to North Carolina and Rutgers.
A lack of depth does not inherently mean the teams at the top are not elite. Indeed, the other teams in any conference remain independent variables when addressing the ceiling for any one team. If the Kansas City Chiefs joined the Sun Belt, Patrick Mahomes would still be a magician and Andy Reid would still be saying “Bundle-a-rooskie-doo” in your nightmares.
But the cold, hard facts are these: Indiana’s best win came last week against Michigan (No. 40 in SP+) by 3. Penn State’s best win (by SP+) came by 3 against a below-.500 USC team that just benched its QB. Ohio State is absolutely elite on paper, but on the field, the Buckeyes’ success is entirely buoyed by a 20-13 win at Penn State, a team we also know very little about.
The SEC gets flack for boasting of its greatness routinely, and to be sure, that narrative has often bolstered less-than-elite teams. But this year, every reasonable metric suggests the SEC’s production actually matches its ego, and when Ole Miss (No. 11), Georgia (No. 12), Alabama (No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 15) — all with two losses — are dogged as a result of playing in a league where every other team warrants a spot in the top 25, it undermines the entire point of having a committee that can use its judgment rather than simply look at the standings.
Let’s compare two teams with blind résumés.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 14 in ESPN’s strength of record. Best win came vs. SP+ No. 20, loss came to a top-10 team by 3. Has four wins vs. Power 4 teams with a winning record, by an average of 14 points.
Team B: 8-1 record, No. 11 in ESPN’s strength of record. Best win came vs. SP+ No. 28, loss came to a top-15 team by 15. Has one win vs. a Power 4 team with a winning record, by 3.
So, which team has the better résumé?
This shouldn’t take too long to figure out. Team A looks better by almost every metric, right?
Well, Team A is SMU, who checks in at No. 14 in this week’s ranking.
Team B, though? That’d be the Mustangs’ old friends from the Southwest Conference, the Texas Longhorns. Texas checks in at No. 3.
Perhaps you’ve watched enough of both Texas and SMU to think the eye test favors the Longhorns. That’s fair. But should the eye test account for 11 spots in the rankings? At some point, the results have to matter more.
Or, perhaps it’s the brand that matters to the committee. If that same résumé belonged to a school that hadn’t just bought its way into the Power 4 this year, it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t be in the top 10 with ease.
Let’s dig into three different teams still hoping for a playoff bid, even if the odds are against them at this point.
Team A: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ top 40. No. 28 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 18 points.
Team B: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ top 40. No. 25 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 13 points.
Team C: 7-2, no wins over SP+ top 40. No. 24 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 21 points.
You could split hairs here, but the bottom line is none has a particularly compelling résumé, and they’re all pretty similar.
So, who are they?
Team B is Iowa State, which plummeted from the rankings after losing two straight. But the committee isn’t supposed to care when you lost your games. Losing in September is not better than losing in November. At least that’s what they say.
Team A is Arizona State. Its 10-point loss to Cincinnati came without starting QB Sam Leavitt and was due, at least in part, to a kicking game so traumatic head coach Kenny Dillingham held an open tryout afterward. The Sun Devils and Cyclones are two of three two-loss Power 4 teams unranked this week (alongside Pitt), but unlike Iowa State and Pitt, Arizona State isn’t coming off back-to-back losses. The Sun Devils’ absence seems entirely correlated to the fact that no one believed this team would be any good entering the season, and so few people have looked closely enough to change their minds that the committee feels comfortable ignoring them.
The team the committee can’t ignore, however, is Team C. That would be Colorado. Coach Prime has convinced the world the Buffaloes are for real, even if nothing on their résumé — a No. 77 strength of schedule, worse than 7-2 Western Kentucky‘s — suggests that’s anything close to a certainty.
The Big 12 remains wide open, but it’s to the committee’s detriment that it has so eagerly dismissed two of the better teams just because they’re not as fun to talk about.
Has Missouri played with fire this year? You betcha. Just last week, the Tigers were on the verge of falling to Oklahoma before the Sooners’ woeful QB situation reared its ugly head again and the game ended in a 30-23 Tigers win.
But here’s the thing about playing with fire: So long as you don’t turn your living room into an inferno, it’s actually pretty impressive.
Missouri is 7-2 with wins against SP+ Nos. 26 and 28, and its only losses are to the committee’s No. 10 and No. 15 teams. SP+ has Missouri at No. 17, though we can chalk that up to Connelly’s hometown bias. But No. 23? After a top-10 season in 2023, don’t the Tigers deserve a little benefit of the doubt? They currently trail three three-loss teams (Louisville, South Carolina and LSU) and are behind Boise State, Colorado, Washington State and Clemson, who, combined, have exactly one win over SP+ top-40 teams.
There’s a good chance that, should Brady Cook not return to the lineup, Missouri will get waxed at South Carolina on Saturday, and then the argument is moot. But the committee isn’t supposed to look ahead and take guesses at what it believes might happen (Florida State’s snub last year notwithstanding). It’s supposed to judge based on what’s on the books so far, and putting Missouri this far down the rankings seems more than a tad harsh.
The committee threw a nice bone to the non-Power 4 schools this week, with four teams ranked, including No. 25 Tulane Green Wave. That seems deserved, given Tulane’s recent run. But what is it, exactly, that puts the Green Wave ahead of UNLV?
UNLV has the No. 31 strength of record. Tulane is No. 32.
UNLV has the No. 98 strength of schedule played. Tulane is No. 96.
Tulane has a one-possession loss to a top-20 team. UNLV has a one-possession loss to a top-20 team.
The key difference between the two is UNLV has wins against two Power 4 opponents — Houston and Kansas. Houston, by the way, just knocked off Kansas State, a team that beat Tulane.
So perhaps the committee should spread a bit more love outside the Power 4.
Also Angry: Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, unranked), Duke Blue Devils (7-3, unranked), Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, No. 12), Utah Utes AD Mark Harlan (the Utes would be ranked if Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark hadn’t rigged the system!) and UConn Huskies (7-3, unranked and thus prohibiting us from Jim Mora Jr. giving a “You wanna talk about playoffs?!?” rant).
Environment
Elon Musk Tapped to Lead New ‘DOGE’ Department—Despite the Government Already Having One for Efficiency
Published
3 hours agoon
November 13, 2024By
adminTesla CEO Elon Musk is to officially join Trump’s administration as the co-head of the new US Department of Government Efficiency – a second federal department with the goal of making government spending more efficient.
You can’t get more ironic than that.
Throughout the elections, Musk, who is already CEO of Tesla, and SpaceX, a well as the defacto head of X, xAI, Neuralink, and the Boring Company, has been floating the idea to add to his workload by joining the Trump’s administration to lead a new department aimed at making the federal government more efficient.
He has been calling it the “Department of Government Efficiency”, which spells out ‘DOGE’, a meme that Musk appears to enjoy.
Well, now Trump appears to want to be going through with this idea.
He announced the new department and Musk as head, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, in a statement today:
I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”). Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies – Essential to the “Save America” Movement. “This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people!” stated Mr. Musk.
What’s most ironic is that there’s already a federal department with the goal of cutting government waste and ensuring efficiency: the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
The GAO’s main objectives are:
- auditing agency operations to determine whether federal funds are being spent efficiently and effectively;
- investigating allegations of illegal and improper activities;
- reporting on how well government programs and policies are meeting their objectives;
- performing policy analyses and outlining options for congressional consideration;
- issuing legal decisions and opinions;
- advising Congress and the heads of executive agencies about ways to make government more efficient and effective
It sounds similar to what Musk described when talking about his DOGE, but Trump hasn’t gone into many details other than it will “cut waste.”
He also has a confusing message as he compares the initiative, which is supposed to cut government spending, to “The Manhattan project”, a massive and expensive government project.
Trump said that DOGE will help the government “drive large scale structural reform”:
It will become, potentially, “The Manhattan Project” of our time. Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of “DOGE” for a very long time. To drive this kind of drastic change, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.
The statement also noted that DOGE will only operate until July 4, 2026.
Musk has previously claimed that he could cut at least $2 trillion dollars of the $6.5 trillion dollar US federal budget.
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Environment
Oil could plunge to $40 in 2025 if OPEC unwinds voluntary production cuts, analysts say
Published
3 hours agoon
November 13, 2024By
admin
A pump jack in Midland, Texas, US, on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.
Anthony Prieto | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that oil alliance OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts, said market watchers who are predicting a bearish year ahead for crude.
“There is more fear about 2025’s oil prices than there has been since years — any year I can remember, since the Arab Spring,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, an oil price reporting agency.
“You could get down to $30 or $40 a barrel if OPEC unwound and didn’t have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. They’ve seen their market share really dwindle through the years,” Kloza added.
A decline to $40 a barrel would mean around a 40% erasure of current crude prices. Global benchmark Brent is currently trading at $72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures are around $68 per barrel.
Oil prices year-to-date
Given that oil demand growth next year probably won’t be much more than 1 million barrels a day, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep slide in crude prices, possibly toward $40 a barrel,” Henning Gloystein, head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic posited that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since Covid.”
However, the alliance is more likely to opt for a gradual unwinding early next year, compared to a full scale and immediate one, the analysts said.
Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double.
Martoccia Francesco
Energy strategist at Citi
The oil cartel has been exercising discipline in maintaining its voluntary output cuts, to the point of extending them.
In September, OPEC+ postponed plans to begin gradually rolling back on the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts by two months in an effort to stem the slide of oil prices. The 2.2 million bpd cut, which was implemented over the second and third quarters, had been due to expire at the end of September.
At the start of this month, the oil cartel again decided to delay the planned oil output increase by another month to the end of December.
Oil prices have been weighed by a sluggish post-Covid recovery in demand from China, the world’s second-largest economy and leading crude oil importer. In its monthly report released Tuesday, OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day.
The pressured prices were also conflagrated by a perceivably oversupplied market, especially as key oil producers outside the OPEC alliance like the U.S., Canada, Guyana and Brazil are also planning to add supply, Gloystein highlighted.
Bearish year ahead for oil
The market consensus is that there’ll be a “substantial” oil stock build next year, said Citibank energy strategist Martoccia Francesco.
“Should the producers group proceed with their production plan, the market surplus could nearly double… reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels per day,” said Francesco.
Even if OPEC+ doesn’t unwind the cuts, the future ofl prices is still looking break. Citi analysts expect Brent price to average $60 per barrel next year.
Further fueling the bearish outlook is the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, whose return is associated by some with a potential trade war, said analysts who spoke to CNBC.
“If we do get a trade war — and a lot of economists think that a trade war is possible, and particularly against China — we could see much, much lower prices,” said OPIS’ Kloza.
Trump has also touted a “drill baby drill” policy for U.S. producers, vowing to cut energy prices in half.
For that to happen to retail gasoline prices, oil would need to drop to “below $40” per barrel, said Matt Smith, Kpler’s lead oil analyst.
Right now, retail gasoline prices are at a “sweet spot” at $3 per gallon, where consumers do not feel the pinch and input prices are still sufficiently high for producers, Smith added.
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