If you think this has been a pretty tough year, you are not alone.
The annual Global Advisor survey conducted around the world by Ipsos records that a majority of us, 53%, think 2023 has been a bad year for us and our family.
Worse, a significantly greater proportion, 70%, say it has been a bad year for their country. This finding perhaps explains the widespread disillusionment with politics and, often, the governments in power.
Let’s face it: things have not gone well abroad or at home in 2023. The second year of war in Ukraine has been joined by the vicious conflagration in the seemingly intractable confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis.
Dozens of other insurgencies and regional wars are being fought out around the world.
In the UK the economy is teetering on the brink of recession as the cost of living pinches. Inflation hit a record high this century, so have NHS waiting lists and immigration into this country.
In spite of all these challenges and suffering, optimism remains an essential element of the human spirit. There are some reasons to be cheerful at the end of this year and as we head into the next.
More from Politics
Things may be bad but we seem to think that things have improved a little bit over the past twelve months, and we are looking forward to them getting better in 2024.
Even the grim majority judging this to be a bad year is smaller than twelve months ago, and has at last recovered to levels before the life-changing COVID pandemic. Worldwide 70% think that next year will be better than this one – up by 5% last year.
Advertisement
Great Britain comes 26th out of the 35 nations picked out by Ipsos, with 64% “optimistic that 2024 will be a better year for me than 2023”. That is just below Spain (66%) and the US (65%) but better than Italy (59%), Germany (57%) and France (46%).
There are still major financial worries; though here the gloom lifted slightly to its lowest since the end of 2021.
Ipsos’ net economic optimism index is still pessimistic at -28, but it is now moving in the right direction.
Only 22% think the economy will improve in the next year but that is up +3 from last month.
A sobering 50% say it will get worse, though that is down five. Still, stock markets are up and the expectations are that energy costs are heading downward.
A major factor behind the gradual return in confidence may be that people feel less powerless.
Many have the opportunity to make changes next year. More people than ever, around four billion globally, will have the chance to take part in elections next year in more than 70 countries, some 40 of which are considered to be free and fair democracies.
Not all these elections hold out the possibility of regime change.
That could happen in general elections in the US on 5 November, and in the UK, sometime next year and not the last possible date in January 2025, according to the prime minister.
There are also general or presidential elections in South Korea, South Africa, Pakistan, India and Russia – in descending order of those likely to be fair.
The elections for the European Parliament across the EU will give an important indication of the strength of populist concerns about immigration.
The British prime minister has not yet delivered his pledge to “stop the boats” but he can claim credit for reducing the number crossing the Channel by a third – largely through increased co-operation with Albania and France, rather than the expensive and stymied deportation to Rwanda policy.
After the three prime ministers in 2022 and the turmoil of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak has brought stability to UK politics, just as things seem settled for now in the British monarchy.
Labour’s lead in the opinion polls remains commanding, although over the year it has trimmed from an average of 20% to 18%. Labour’s strength has been confirmed in local elections and by-election victories.
In the general election year, the pressure will be on Sir Keir as an apparent prime minister in waiting.
The Conservatives are already targeting him as a “lefty lawyer”. Much more importantly for the health of the country, Labour will be under intense scrutiny for its own policies and ideas to rebuild the country, rather than simply pointing to the failures of the Conservatives over the past 13 years.
Whatever the outcome of the British general election of 2024 there will be a major clear out and refresh of the compromised and discredited political elite. Over 70 incumbent MPs have announced their intention of standing down, more than 50 of them Conservatives.
That figure is expected to climb towards 100 once the poll is imminent.
Jeopardy seems greater in the United States, where one way or another the Donald Trump issue will be settled.
There is an urgent need for that. Current conventional wisdom is that he is on course to secure the Republican nomination, and narrow favourite to beat Joe Biden in November.
I believe that democracy in America is not so supine. I expect that campaign 2024 will be tumultuous. Mr Trump has deepening legal problems and most Americans think Mr Biden is too old to be re-elected. It is too soon to conclude that either or both will be the main candidates come the vote.
Twenty-two months after Russia’s all-out attack, and a decade after its occupation of some of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has still not conquered his neighbour, after the loss of over 300,000 of his troops.
There are concerns about Ukraine-fatigue and the willingness of Western allies to sustain Ukraine’s defence.
But Nato has revived and embraced Ukraine while the EU has accepted it as an applicant country. Mr Putin will never prevail in extinguishing Ukraine as an independent nation.
It is even harder to identify glimmers of hope in the ongoing bloodshed in the Middle East – the horrific terror attack on Israel by Hamas and the heavy-handed response by Israel to track down killers who are using the civilian population of Gaza and their Israeli hostages as human shields. At least the war has not yet spread across the region.
After decades of negligence by the international community, it is apparent that neither the status quo before the 7 October attack nor the respective policies of the Netanyahu and Hamas-led governments are viable going forward.
Nobody has a better answer than a two-state solution, which has been increasingly advocated by foreign governments including the UK, US and EU. Whatever the belligerents are saying, my expectation is that over time a two-state solution will be imposed, by external international pressure if necessary.
The Ipsos survey identified other major global concerns. 2023 has been the hottest year on record and 81% expect average global temperatures will be higher in 2024. A majority think artificial intelligence will cost more jobs than it creates. 59% expect to spend more time in the office and less working from home.
Each of these can be subject to a glass-half-full or half-empty analysis. This has already been applied to this December’s COP28which the UN says signals “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.
Most of us are only just waking up to the possibilities opened by AI, while lawmakers are rightly alert to its implications. Similarly we are still feeling our way towards the best hybrid balances for work and home; when we get there both productivity and well-being will improve.
This season we should not let these great challenges get us down. We have good reasons to hope for a happier new year.
The UK will play its “full part” in peacekeeping in Ukraine, Sir Keir Starmer has said.
The prime minister told Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby that the conflict with Russia was not just about “sovereignty in Ukraine” but about the impact it also had on the UK, including the cost of living crisis.
Sir Keir was speaking to Sky News while on a surprise visit to Ukraine on Thursday – his first since his party’s landslide election win six months ago.
The purpose of the trip was to discuss the next steps for Ukraine, with the situation now more uncertain following Donald Trump’s election victory in November.
Mr Trump, whose inauguration takes place on 20 January, has said he wants a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine within 100 days.
But some European leaders fear pushing Kyiv into a deal could lead to Ukraine ceding some of its territory to Vladimir Putin.
More on Ukraine
Related Topics:
Sir Keir said he did not want “to get ahead of ourselves” but that the UK would play its “full part” in any peace negotiations – including by deploying British troops for peacekeeping.
Asked if he would be prepared to do that, the prime minister replied: “Well, I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but I do have indicated that we will play our full part – because this isn’t just about sovereignty in Ukraine.
“It’s about what the impact is back in the United Kingdom and our values, our freedom, our democracy. Because if Russia succeeds in this aggression, it will impact all of us for a very, very long time.”
Sir Keir said the drone threat was “a reminder of what Ukraine is facing every day” and that the war was brought about by “Russian aggression”.
Elsewhere in the interview, Sir Keir was asked about his views on Ukraine’s longstanding desire to join NATO – something President Putin strongly opposes.
At a NATO summit in Washington last summer, the alliance’s members announced that Ukraine was on an “irreversible” path to NATO membership.
“We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements and decide its own future, free from outside interference. Ukraine’s future is in NATO,” the declaration said.
However, Mr Zelenskyy has somewhat tempered his language around NATO membership, telling Sky News in an exclusive interview in November that a ceasefire deal could be struck if Ukrainian territory he controlled falls “under the NATO umbrella” – allowing him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way”.
However, Mr Trump has acknowledged Moscow’s opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, saying: “Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feeling about that.”
Watch the full interview with Beth Rigby and Sir Keir Starmer on the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge at 7pm.
An abusive boyfriend whose girlfriend blamed him for her death in a suicide note – after he subjected her to years of violence – has been jailed for six-and-a-half years for controlling and coercive behaviour and assault.
He was the first defendant in England to face trial for the unlawful killing of his partner after her suicide following domestic violence.
Shortly after Ms Dawes wrote her note on her phone, in which she described Wellings as a “monster”, the 23-year-old hairdresser left it with a friend before she took her own life on 22 July 2022.
Prosecuting, Paul Greaney KC cited the suicide note at Wellings’s trial. In it, Ms Dawes said he had “killed [her]”.
“He ruined every bit of strength I had left,” the note said. “I had dreams. I had a future at one point. That was taken away from me.”
Wellings denied the allegations against him and told jurors “I’m not a monster”.
While a jury cleared Wellings of Kiena’s manslaughter, Mr Greaney invited the court to sentence the defendant “on the basis that [the offending of which he was convicted] formed the background to and set the scene for her death”.
He said the abuse was “both regular and routine across the relationship”.
On one occasion, the court heard the defendant “held a drill to Kiena’s face, switched the drill on and threatened to drill out her teeth”.
‘Breaks my heart’
In a personal statement read out on her behalf in court, Angela Dawes, Kiena’s mother, said: “It breaks my heart that [Kiena’s] beautiful baby doesn’t have her mummy here because of that monster.”
“I truly hope that no other young lady or child has to go through what he did to my daughter and her baby,” she added.
Kiena’s grandmother, Irene Ball, said she had noticed at times during Kiena’s relationship with Wellings that her smile was “false” but recalled her granddaughter “tried to reassure [her]”.
“It was extremely shocking to see my granddaughter hurt and with injuries to her beautiful face,” she said.
“I told Kiena that he would really badly hurt her one day and I pleaded with her not to go back to him.”
Kynan Dawes, Kiena’s brother, said: “I introduced Kiena to this monster and I will regret that for the rest of my life.”
Mr Dawes said he felt “justice [had] been served” as “the world now knows what a monster he is”.
Addressing those who’d been following Kiena’s case online, he added: “I want people to see that domestic violence is not OK and men should respect their partners.”
He also urged anyone experiencing domestic violence to “go to the police”, adding “if you don’t feel like you can do this, speak to family or friends”.
‘Friendly and kind young woman’
In sentencing, Judge Robert Altham said Ms Dawes was “a popular, vivacious, friendly and kind young woman”.
“She pleaded with you to stop hitting her, but you just carried on. You tried to persuade her that it was her fault for upsetting you,” he added.
Ms Dawes had attempted suicide in the past, before her relationship with Wellings, and lawyers for Wellings told the court her death was because of “multiple factors”.
The judge said the defendant was aware of Ms Dawes’s history of mental health issues, he “called her names connected with her illness” and “repeatedly told her that she may as well kill herself”.
However, he said his sentence was based on the jury’s conclusion that the defendant had “no criminal responsibility” for Kiena’s death.
In mitigation, John Jones KC told the court the relationship between Ms Dawes and Wellings, a landscape gardener from Bispham who had a previous conviction for battering an ex-partner, was “inconsistent” throughout its two-and-a-half years.
“It would be wrong to say that that coercive relationship was in existence throughout,” he said.
The court heard the abuse of Ms Dawes included regular slapping and “ragging” by her hair, and threats to use a drill to take out her teeth and throw acid in her face.
After she became pregnant, Wellings gave her a black eye and began criticising her weight, calling her “fat” while contacting escorts and prostitutes online.
Police were called more than once, but Wellings threatened Ms Dawes that their daughter would be taken from them if she told them what was happening, so she declined to help prosecute him.
But she did report Wellings following an attack which left her needing hospital treatment and he was arrested.
He broke his bail conditions but was not locked up, leaving Ms Dawes feeling let down by police. Four days later, she killed herself.
Wellings’ sentences, to run consecutively, were for controlling or coercive behaviour in an intimate relationship and for assault occasioning actual bodily harm.
A further count of assault on the defendant’s former friend Scott Fletcher was also included as part of the sentence, an offence to which he had previously pleaded guilty.
Wellings will serve half of the sentence in prison before he is released on licence.
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
The teenager who stabbed 15-year-old Elianne Andam to death in a row over a teddy bear has been found guilty of murder.
Hassan Sentamu, 18, attacked Elianne with a kitchen knife in “white-hot anger at having been disrespected” after she stood up for his ex-girlfriend, the Old Bailey heard.
He had been due to return items including a teddy bear to Elianne’s friend following their break-up but instead came armed, wearing two pairs of gloves and a facemask.
Elianne collapsed outside the Whitgift Centre in central Croydon, south London, after being stabbed four times in what police described as a “frenzied” attack, which was caught on CCTV, on 27 September 2023.
Her friend compared Sentamu to a character from the Netflix crime drama Top Boy and said Elianne had her hand out begging him to “stop”.
He threw his gloves and mask in a bin and hid the knife in a garden but was arrested within 90 minutes after police stopped a bus near his home in New Addington.
Sentamu, who was 17 at the time, admitted manslaughter but denied murder on the basis of “loss of control” because he has autism.
There were sobs in the public as he was found guilty by a majority verdict of 10 to two, while he stood propping himself up with both arms in the dock and crying.
He was also found guilty on a charge of having a blade. Sentamu had also denied this charge – claiming he had a lawful reason for carrying it.
Grime artist Stormzy was among thousands of mourners who gathered at a candlelit vigil after Elianne – who went to the private Old Palace of John Whitgift School – was killed, and there is now a memorial to her at the scene.
‘I’ll do it again’
The month after Elianne’s death, Sentamu got into a row with a fellow inmate in youth custody and when he was accused of killing girls, said: “I’ll do it again,” the court heard.
“I’ll do it to your mum,” he said. “Do you want to end up like her, six feet under? I’ll do the same again.”
Sentamu, who came to the UK aged five with his mother and three sisters, had a history of violent and aggressive behaviour, as well as making repeated threats to take his own life.
He was given a police caution after pulling a knife out in class and telling a teacher he wanted to kill himself when he was just 12 years old.
Sentamu was expelled from one school after threatening another child with a knife and in other incidents put girls in headlocks and threatened to stab a student with a pair of scissors.
While in foster care he threatened to harm a cat or chop off its tail, the court heard.
‘I can’t let this slide’
Weeks before he killed Elianne, who wanted to become a human rights lawyer, Sentamu said: “The real me is evil, dark and miserable” in a message to a friend.
The day before the attack, he had met Elianne and her friend, who had recently split up with him, at the Whitgift Centre, where the girls “teased” him and his ex-girlfriend splashed him with water.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:56
Attack caught on CCTV
Sentamu, who was studying sports science at Croydon College, later sent what police called a “chilling” message to a friend saying: “I can’t let this slide bro.”
He met Elianne, his ex-girlfriend and another of their friends the following day to swap belongings.
The girl handed him a plastic bag of his clothes, but he did not have her teddy bear as arranged, and Eliane snatched the bag back.
A Snapchat video shows Elianne smiling and laughing before her expression turned to “abject terror,” jurors were told.
Sentamu pulled the kitchen knife from his trousers and repeatedly stabbed her, plunging the blade 12cm into her neck.
‘He exacted vengeance on a girl running away’
Prosecutor Alex Chalk KC earlier told jurors Sentamu was “angry… having brooded on the insult and he took the knife to the scene to reassert dominance”.
“He exacted vengeance on a young girl clearly running away from him and posing no threat,” he said.
Sentamu, who was diagnosed with autism in 2020, did not give evidence.
His barrister Pavlos Panayi KC said it was not disputed the killing was a “grotesque overreaction” but the “central issue” in the case was Sentamu’s autism history and symptoms.
Metropolitan Police Detective Chief Inspector Becky Woodsford said it was a “violent, aggressive and frenzied knife attack on a young girl”.
“Elianne was doing what was right, she was standing up for her friend,” she added.