Adam Boulton: Things may be bad, but there are reasons to be cheerful in 2024

Published

2 years ago

December 24, 2023

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If you think this has been a pretty tough year, you are not alone.

The annual Global Advisor survey conducted around the world by Ipsos records that a majority of us, 53%, think 2023 has been a bad year for us and our family.

Worse, a significantly greater proportion, 70%, say it has been a bad year for their country. This finding perhaps explains the widespread disillusionment with politics and, often, the governments in power.

Let’s face it: things have not gone well abroad or at home in 2023. The second year of war in Ukraine has been joined by the vicious conflagration in the seemingly intractable confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis.

Dozens of other insurgencies and regional wars are being fought out around the world.

In the UK the economy is teetering on the brink of recession as the cost of living pinches. Inflation hit a record high this century, so have NHS waiting lists and immigration into this country.

In spite of all these challenges and suffering, optimism remains an essential element of the human spirit. There are some reasons to be cheerful at the end of this year and as we head into the next.

Things may be bad but we seem to think that things have improved a little bit over the past twelve months, and we are looking forward to them getting better in 2024.

Even the grim majority judging this to be a bad year is smaller than twelve months ago, and has at last recovered to levels before the life-changing COVID pandemic. Worldwide 70% think that next year will be better than this one – up by 5% last year.

Great Britain comes 26th out of the 35 nations picked out by Ipsos, with 64% “optimistic that 2024 will be a better year for me than 2023”. That is just below Spain (66%) and the US (65%) but better than Italy (59%), Germany (57%) and France (46%).

There are still major financial worries; though here the gloom lifted slightly to its lowest since the end of 2021.

Ipsos’ net economic optimism index is still pessimistic at -28, but it is now moving in the right direction.

Only 22% think the economy will improve in the next year but that is up +3 from last month.

A sobering 50% say it will get worse, though that is down five. Still, stock markets are up and the expectations are that energy costs are heading downward.

A major factor behind the gradual return in confidence may be that people feel less powerless.

Many have the opportunity to make changes next year. More people than ever, around four billion globally, will have the chance to take part in elections next year in more than 70 countries, some 40 of which are considered to be free and fair democracies.

Not all these elections hold out the possibility of regime change.

That could happen in general elections in the US on 5 November, and in the UK, sometime next year and not the last possible date in January 2025, according to the prime minister.

There are also general or presidential elections in South Korea, South Africa, Pakistan, India and Russia – in descending order of those likely to be fair.

The elections for the European Parliament across the EU will give an important indication of the strength of populist concerns about immigration.

The British prime minister has not yet delivered his pledge to “stop the boats” but he can claim credit for reducing the number crossing the Channel by a third – largely through increased co-operation with Albania and France, rather than the expensive and stymied deportation to Rwanda policy.

After the three prime ministers in 2022 and the turmoil of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak has brought stability to UK politics, just as things seem settled for now in the British monarchy.

He has not been rewarded with loyalty from his own MPs, and they remain perhaps the greatest threat to his chances of holding the election at the time of his choosing – seemingly next autumn, as he chalks up two years in 10 Downing Street.

Labour’s lead in the opinion polls remains commanding, although over the year it has trimmed from an average of 20% to 18%. Labour’s strength has been confirmed in local elections and by-election victories.

These also included a decline in support for the Scottish National Party, which could be a decisive factor in a clear victory for Sir Keir Starmer. There will be another by-election test early in 2024 in Peter Bone’s former seat of Wellingborough.

In the general election year, the pressure will be on Sir Keir as an apparent prime minister in waiting.

The Conservatives are already targeting him as a “lefty lawyer”. Much more importantly for the health of the country, Labour will be under intense scrutiny for its own policies and ideas to rebuild the country, rather than simply pointing to the failures of the Conservatives over the past 13 years.

Whatever the outcome of the British general election of 2024 there will be a major clear out and refresh of the compromised and discredited political elite. Over 70 incumbent MPs have announced their intention of standing down, more than 50 of them Conservatives.

That figure is expected to climb towards 100 once the poll is imminent.

Jeopardy seems greater in the United States, where one way or another the Donald Trump issue will be settled.

There is an urgent need for that. Current conventional wisdom is that he is on course to secure the Republican nomination, and narrow favourite to beat Joe Biden in November.

I believe that democracy in America is not so supine. I expect that campaign 2024 will be tumultuous. Mr Trump has deepening legal problems and most Americans think Mr Biden is too old to be re-elected. It is too soon to conclude that either or both will be the main candidates come the vote.

Twenty-two months after Russia’s all-out attack, and a decade after its occupation of some of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has still not conquered his neighbour, after the loss of over 300,000 of his troops.

There are concerns about Ukraine-fatigue and the willingness of Western allies to sustain Ukraine’s defence.

But Nato has revived and embraced Ukraine while the EU has accepted it as an applicant country. Mr Putin will never prevail in extinguishing Ukraine as an independent nation.

It is even harder to identify glimmers of hope in the ongoing bloodshed in the Middle East – the horrific terror attack on Israel by Hamas and the heavy-handed response by Israel to track down killers who are using the civilian population of Gaza and their Israeli hostages as human shields. At least the war has not yet spread across the region.

After decades of negligence by the international community, it is apparent that neither the status quo before the 7 October attack nor the respective policies of the Netanyahu and Hamas-led governments are viable going forward.

Nobody has a better answer than a two-state solution, which has been increasingly advocated by foreign governments including the UK, US and EU. Whatever the belligerents are saying, my expectation is that over time a two-state solution will be imposed, by external international pressure if necessary.

The Ipsos survey identified other major global concerns. 2023 has been the hottest year on record and 81% expect average global temperatures will be higher in 2024. A majority think artificial intelligence will cost more jobs than it creates. 59% expect to spend more time in the office and less working from home.

Each of these can be subject to a glass-half-full or half-empty analysis. This has already been applied to this December’s COP28 which the UN says signals “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.

Most of us are only just waking up to the possibilities opened by AI, while lawmakers are rightly alert to its implications. Similarly we are still feeling our way towards the best hybrid balances for work and home; when we get there both productivity and well-being will improve.

This season we should not let these great challenges get us down. We have good reasons to hope for a happier new year.

UK

Four charged after £7m of damage caused to aircraft at RAF Brize Norton

Published

7 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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Four charged after £7m of damage caused to aircraft at RAF Brize Norton

Four people have been charged after £7m of damage was caused to two Voyager aircraft at RAF Brize Norton.

The investigation into the incident early on Friday 20 June was led by counter-terror police.

They have been charged with conspiracy to enter a prohibited place knowingly for a purpose prejudicial to the safety or interests of the UK – and conspiracy to commit criminal damage.

The four charged have been identified as:

• Amy Gardiner-Gibson, 29, of no fixed abode

• Daniel Jeronymides-Norie, 35, from London

• Jony Cink, 24, of no fixed abode

• Lewie Chiaramello, 22, from London

They will appear at Westminster Magistrates’ Court later today.

A 41-year-old woman arrested last week on suspicion of assisting an offender has been released on bail until 19 September.

Meanwhile, a 23-year-old man detained on Saturday was released without charge.

Last month’s incident at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire was claimed by the activist group Palestine Action.

Yesterday, MPs voted to proscribe the group as a terrorist organisation.

The legislation passed with 385 MPs voting in favour, while 26 were against.

UK

No 10 backs Chancellor Rachel Reeves and says she ‘is going nowhere’ after tearful appearance in Commons

Published

15 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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No 10 backs Chancellor Rachel Reeves and says she 'is going nowhere' after tearful appearance in Commons

Rachel Reeves has not offered her resignation and is “going nowhere”, Downing Street has said, following her tearful appearance in the House of Commons.

A Number 10 spokesperson said the chancellor had the “full backing” of Sir Keir Starmer, despite Ms Reeves looking visibly upset during Prime Minister’s Questions.

Politics latest: ‘A moment of intense peril’ for PM

A spokesperson for the chancellor later clarified that Ms Reeves had been affected by a “personal matter” and would be working out of Downing Street this afternoon.

Politics latest: Reeves looks visibly upset in Commons

UK government bond prices fell by the most since October 2022, and the pound tumbled after Ms Reeves’s Commons appearance, while the yield on the 10-year government bond, or gilt, rose as much as 22 basis points at one point to around 4.68%.

Downing Street’s insistence came despite Sir Keir refusing to guarantee that Ms Reeves would stay as chancellor until the next election following the fallout from the government’s recent welfare U-turn.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch branded the chancellor the “human shield” for the prime minister’s “incompetence” just hours after he was forced to perform a humiliating U-turn over his controversial welfare bill.

Emotional Reeves a painful watch – and reminder of tough decisions ahead

It is hard to think of a PMQs like it – it was a painful watch.

The prime minister battled on, his tone assured, even if his actual words were not always convincing.

But it was the chancellor next to him that attracted the most attention.

Rachel Reeves looked visibly upset.

It is hard to know for sure right now what was going on behind the scenes, the reasons – predictable or otherwise – why she appeared to be emotional, but it was noticeable and it was difficult to watch.

Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions, Ms Badenoch said: “This man has forgotten that his welfare bill was there to plug a black hole created by the chancellor. Instead they’re creating new ones.”

Turning to the chancellor, the Tory leader added: “[She] is pointing at me – she looks absolutely miserable.

“Labour MPs are going on the record saying that the chancellor is toast, and the reality is that she is a human shield for his incompetence. In January, he said that she would be in post until the next election. Will she really?”

Not fully answering the question, the prime minister replied: “[Ms Badenoch] certainly won’t.

“I have to say, I’m always cheered up when she asks me questions or responds to a statement because she always makes a complete mess of it and shows just how unserious and irrelevant they are.”

Mrs Badenoch interjected: “How awful for the chancellor that he couldn’t confirm that she would stay in place.”

The prime minister’s watered-down Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill, aimed at saving £5bn, was backed by a majority of 75 in a tense vote on Tuesday evening.

A total of 49 Labour MPs voted against the bill – the largest rebellion in a prime minister’s first year in office since 47 MPs voted against Tony Blair’s Lone Parent benefit in 1997, according to Professor Phil Cowley from Queen Mary University.

After multiple concessions made due to threats of a Labour rebellion, many MPs questioned what they were voting for as the bill had been severely stripped down.

They ended up voting for only one part of the plan: a cut to Universal Credit (UC) sickness benefits for new claimants from £97 a week to £50 from 2026/7.

Ms Badenoch said the climbdown was proof that Sir Keir was “too weak to get anything done”.

Ms Reeves has also borne a lot of the criticism over the handling of the vote, with some MPs believing that her strict approach to fiscal rules has meant she has approached the ballooning welfare bill from the standpoint of trying to make savings, rather than getting people into work.

Experts have now warned that the welfare U-turn, on top of reversing the cut to winter fuel, means that tax rises in the autumn are more likely – with Ms Reeves now needing to find £5bn to make up for the policy U-turns.

Asked by Ms Badenoch whether he could rule out further tax rises – something Labour promised it would not do on working people in its manifesto – Sir Keir said: “She knows that no prime minister or chancellor ever stands at the despatch box and writes budgets in the future.

“But she talks about growth, for 14 years we had stagnation, and that is what caused the problem.”

UK

Prosecutors consider more charges against Lucy Letby

Published

18 hours ago

July 2, 2025

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Prosecutors consider more charges against Lucy Letby

Prosecutors are considering whether to bring further criminal charges against Lucy Letby over the deaths of babies at two hospitals where she worked

The Crown Prosecution Service said it had received “a full file of evidence from Cheshire Constabulary asking us to consider further allegations in relation to deaths and non-fatal collapses of babies at the Countess of Chester Hospital and Liverpool Women’s Hospital”.

“We will now carefully consider the evidence to determine whether any further criminal charges should be brought,” it added.

“As always, we will make that decision independently, based on the evidence and in line with our legal test.”

Letby, 35, was found guilty of murdering seven children and attempting to murder seven more between June 2015 and June 2016 while working in the neonatal unit of the Countess of Chester Hospital and is currently serving 15 whole-life orders.

She is understood to have carried out two work placements at Liverpool Women’s Hospital, where she trained as a student, between October and December 2012, and January and February 2015.

Police said in December that Letby was interviewed in prison as part of an investigation into more baby deaths and non-fatal collapses.

A Cheshire Constabulary spokesperson said: “We can confirm that Cheshire Constabulary has submitted a full file of evidence to the CPS for charging advice regarding the ongoing investigation into deaths and non-fatal collapses of babies at the neo-natal units of both the Countess of Chester Hospital and the Liverpool Women’s Hospital as part of Operation Hummingbird.”

Detectives previously said the investigation was looking into the full period of time that Letby worked as a nurse, covering the period from 2012 to 2016 and including a review of 4,000 admissions of babies.

Letby’s lawyer Mark McDonald said: “The evidence of the innocence of Lucy Letby is overwhelming,” adding: “We will cross every bridge when we get to it but if Lucy is charged I know we have a whole army of internationally renowned medical experts who will totally undermine the prosecution’s unfounded allegations.”

On Tuesday, it was confirmed that three managers at the Countess of Chester hospital had been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter in a separate investigation.

Police said the suspects, who occupied senior positions at the hospital between 2015 and 2016, have all been bailed pending further inquiries.

There is also an investigation into corporate manslaughter at the hospital, which began in October 2023.

A public inquiry has also been examining the hospital’s response to concerns raised about Letby before her arrest.

In May, it was announced the inquiry’s final report into how the former nurse was able to commit her crimes will now be published early next year.

Earlier this year, Letby’s lawyers called for the suspension of the inquiry, claiming there was “overwhelming and compelling evidence” that her convictions were unsafe.

In February, an international panel of neonatologists and paediatric specialists told reporters that poor medical care and natural causes were the reasons for the collapses and deaths.

Their evidence has been passed to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), which investigates potential miscarriages of justice, and Letby’s legal team hopes her case will be referred back to the Court of Appeal.