If you think this has been a pretty tough year, you are not alone.
The annual Global Advisor survey conducted around the world by Ipsos records that a majority of us, 53%, think 2023 has been a bad year for us and our family.
Worse, a significantly greater proportion, 70%, say it has been a bad year for their country. This finding perhaps explains the widespread disillusionment with politics and, often, the governments in power.
Let’s face it: things have not gone well abroad or at home in 2023. The second year of war in Ukraine has been joined by the vicious conflagration in the seemingly intractable confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis.
Dozens of other insurgencies and regional wars are being fought out around the world.
In the UK the economy is teetering on the brink of recession as the cost of living pinches. Inflation hit a record high this century, so have NHS waiting lists and immigration into this country.
In spite of all these challenges and suffering, optimism remains an essential element of the human spirit. There are some reasons to be cheerful at the end of this year and as we head into the next.
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Things may be bad but we seem to think that things have improved a little bit over the past twelve months, and we are looking forward to them getting better in 2024.
Even the grim majority judging this to be a bad year is smaller than twelve months ago, and has at last recovered to levels before the life-changing COVID pandemic. Worldwide 70% think that next year will be better than this one – up by 5% last year.
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Great Britain comes 26th out of the 35 nations picked out by Ipsos, with 64% “optimistic that 2024 will be a better year for me than 2023”. That is just below Spain (66%) and the US (65%) but better than Italy (59%), Germany (57%) and France (46%).
There are still major financial worries; though here the gloom lifted slightly to its lowest since the end of 2021.
Ipsos’ net economic optimism index is still pessimistic at -28, but it is now moving in the right direction.
Only 22% think the economy will improve in the next year but that is up +3 from last month.
A sobering 50% say it will get worse, though that is down five. Still, stock markets are up and the expectations are that energy costs are heading downward.
A major factor behind the gradual return in confidence may be that people feel less powerless.
Many have the opportunity to make changes next year. More people than ever, around four billion globally, will have the chance to take part in elections next year in more than 70 countries, some 40 of which are considered to be free and fair democracies.
Not all these elections hold out the possibility of regime change.
That could happen in general elections in the US on 5 November, and in the UK, sometime next year and not the last possible date in January 2025, according to the prime minister.
There are also general or presidential elections in South Korea, South Africa, Pakistan, India and Russia – in descending order of those likely to be fair.
The elections for the European Parliament across the EU will give an important indication of the strength of populist concerns about immigration.
The British prime minister has not yet delivered his pledge to “stop the boats” but he can claim credit for reducing the number crossing the Channel by a third – largely through increased co-operation with Albania and France, rather than the expensive and stymied deportation to Rwanda policy.
After the three prime ministers in 2022 and the turmoil of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak has brought stability to UK politics, just as things seem settled for now in the British monarchy.
Labour’s lead in the opinion polls remains commanding, although over the year it has trimmed from an average of 20% to 18%. Labour’s strength has been confirmed in local elections and by-election victories.
In the general election year, the pressure will be on Sir Keir as an apparent prime minister in waiting.
The Conservatives are already targeting him as a “lefty lawyer”. Much more importantly for the health of the country, Labour will be under intense scrutiny for its own policies and ideas to rebuild the country, rather than simply pointing to the failures of the Conservatives over the past 13 years.
Whatever the outcome of the British general election of 2024 there will be a major clear out and refresh of the compromised and discredited political elite. Over 70 incumbent MPs have announced their intention of standing down, more than 50 of them Conservatives.
That figure is expected to climb towards 100 once the poll is imminent.
Jeopardy seems greater in the United States, where one way or another the Donald Trump issue will be settled.
There is an urgent need for that. Current conventional wisdom is that he is on course to secure the Republican nomination, and narrow favourite to beat Joe Biden in November.
I believe that democracy in America is not so supine. I expect that campaign 2024 will be tumultuous. Mr Trump has deepening legal problems and most Americans think Mr Biden is too old to be re-elected. It is too soon to conclude that either or both will be the main candidates come the vote.
Twenty-two months after Russia’s all-out attack, and a decade after its occupation of some of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has still not conquered his neighbour, after the loss of over 300,000 of his troops.
There are concerns about Ukraine-fatigue and the willingness of Western allies to sustain Ukraine’s defence.
But Nato has revived and embraced Ukraine while the EU has accepted it as an applicant country. Mr Putin will never prevail in extinguishing Ukraine as an independent nation.
It is even harder to identify glimmers of hope in the ongoing bloodshed in the Middle East – the horrific terror attack on Israel by Hamas and the heavy-handed response by Israel to track down killers who are using the civilian population of Gaza and their Israeli hostages as human shields. At least the war has not yet spread across the region.
Image: An Israeli soldier in the Gaza Strip
After decades of negligence by the international community, it is apparent that neither the status quo before the 7 October attack nor the respective policies of the Netanyahu and Hamas-led governments are viable going forward.
Nobody has a better answer than a two-state solution, which has been increasingly advocated by foreign governments including the UK, US and EU. Whatever the belligerents are saying, my expectation is that over time a two-state solution will be imposed, by external international pressure if necessary.
The Ipsos survey identified other major global concerns. 2023 has been the hottest year on record and 81% expect average global temperatures will be higher in 2024. A majority think artificial intelligence will cost more jobs than it creates. 59% expect to spend more time in the office and less working from home.
Each of these can be subject to a glass-half-full or half-empty analysis. This has already been applied to this December’s COP28which the UN says signals “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.
Most of us are only just waking up to the possibilities opened by AI, while lawmakers are rightly alert to its implications. Similarly we are still feeling our way towards the best hybrid balances for work and home; when we get there both productivity and well-being will improve.
This season we should not let these great challenges get us down. We have good reasons to hope for a happier new year.
Britain’s most-wanted fugitive is still on the run – exactly 20 years after the fatal shooting of a young mother of three.
Kevin Parle is a suspect in the murder of Lucy Hargreaves, 22, who was shot dead at her home in Liverpool before the house was set on fire on 3 August 2005.
Since then, after many appeals for information, there has been no confirmed sighting, word or trace of him.
Two decades on, Ms Hargreaves’ family have had no justice. Two young men prosecuted for her murder had charges dropped when a judge ruled there was insufficient evidence against them.
In a statement marking the anniversary of her death, they said: “The way we lost Lucy is not something families can ever truly come to terms with – it is still incredibly difficult and painful to think about.
“Over the past 20 years, people will have talked with family and friends. A number of people were contacted by males using a phone that was stolen along with a vehicle used in Lucy’s murder.
“We appeal directly to them to please come forward. Now is the time.”
Image: Police prediction of how Kevin Parle has aged since 2005. Pic: Merseyside Police
Three men burst into Lucy’s home 20 years ago today, shot her dead as she slept on a sofa, and set alight the duvet she’d been sleeping under.
It’s believed the gang were looking for her boyfriend Gary Campbell, who was upstairs. He fled from a window with their two-year-old daughter and then tried in vain to save Ms Hargreaves.
Mr Campbell had allegedly been a passenger in a stolen car that had hit and killed a young boy 12 years earlier, supposedly the motive for the shooting. He denied he was in the car at the time.
Image: Ms Hargreaves with her three children
Howard Rubbery, head of the Serious Crime Review Unit at Merseyside Police said: “The family remain absolutely devastated by Lucy’s death.
“It’s important to note Lucy is an absolutely innocent victim. She’s not from a family of criminality. She wasn’t involved in criminality.
“The hunt for Kevin Parle is very much on, and we ask anybody with information, anybody who is close to Parle and knows where he is, to please come forward.
“There were three males responsible for this offence and we are looking for justice for Lucy’s family in relation to all three.
“I do believe that there are people out there who have yet to speak to the police, even though it’s 20 years on, who hold information that’s absolutely vital to our investigation.”
Police believe Parle, now in his 40s, fled to Spain where he hid among the vast expat community with criminal help.
Several years later, I tracked his movements to a holiday complex near Torrevieja, where staff convinced me he had stayed there for several weeks.
Image: Former detective Peter Bleksley says Parle is being protected
‘Huge value to organised crime’
Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley, who recently spent four years on a personal hunt for Parle, also visited the complex and said: “He was bold and he was brash and he had a girlfriend at one point.
“The police actually should have captured him there, but they were too late.”
He claimed he nearly caught up with Parle at a villa elsewhere in Spain, but spooked him into disappearing again.
Mr Bleksley hosted an award-winning podcast and wrote a book in which he chronicled his manhunt.
He said: “Kevin Parle has remained hidden because he is funded, protected, looked after and of huge value to global, serious and organised crime.”
Parle can’t be hard to spot – he’s well-built, 6ft 5in tall, red-haired with a face scar and, originally at least, has a Liverpool accent. Of course, he might be dead.
Mr Bleksley said: “I can think of many reasons why certain criminals would want to get rid of Kevin Parle because he could, in terms of evidence about the cases that he’s wanted for, should he flip and become a witness for the Crown, be highly damaging for a lot of very tasty criminals.”
Image: 16-year-old Liam Kelly was shot dead a year before Ms Hargreaves. Pic: Merseyside Police
Parle is also wanted in connection with the murder of 16-year-old Liam Kelly, who was shot dead over an alleged £200 debt in June 2004, a year before Lucy’s death. Parle was arrested and questioned, but then freed on bail.
There have been reports of the fugitive in Australia and Dubai, but nothing to corroborate any of them.
If he’s alive and if no one is prepared to shop him, what might lead to his capture?
“I think when he has a fallout with those who have guarded him, funded him, fed him, put a roof over his head and all of that, maybe even paid for his plastic surgery that could have altered his appearance,” Mr Bleksley said.
“When he finally has a fallout, when he’s no longer of use, then perhaps that will be the day that somebody goes, Peter, he’s here.”
Several demonstrators have been detained after rival groups faced off over a hotel accommodating asylum seekers in north London, with police breaking up brief clashes.
The Metropolitan Police has since imposed conditions on the protest and counter-protest outside the Thistle City Barbican Hotel in Islington.
The protest was organised by local residents under the banner “Thistle Barbican needs to go – locals say no”.
The group of several hundred people waved union flags and banners, and one man chanted: “Get these scum off our streets.”
Image: Anti-immigration protesters waved Union Jack flags. Pic: PA
A larger group staged a counter demonstration to voice support for asylum seekers, bearing a banner that read: “Refugees are welcome.”
People inside the hotel, believed to be migrants, watched on, with some waving and blowing kisses from the windows.
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Image: People believed to be asylum seekers waved the hotel windows. Pic: PA
Image: Pro-immigration protesters gathered by the Thistle City Barbican Hotel. Pic: PA
A man wearing an England football shirt was detained by police after getting into an altercation with officers.
There have been nine arrests so far, seven of which were for breaching conditions police put on the protests under the Public Order Act.
Rival groups separated by police
Another protest was scheduled in Newcastle on Saturday, outside The New Bridge Hotel, as anti-migrant sentiment ripples through some communities around the country, also flaring up recently in Epping.
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Last week: Protesters divided over migrant hotels
The counter-protest in London was organised by local branches of Stand Up To Racism, and supported by former Labour leader and Islington North MP Jeremy Corbyn.
Other community groups including Finsbury Park Mosque and Islington Labour Party were also involved.
Groups online that backed the original protest include “Patriots of Britain” and “Together for the Children”.
At one point, a large group of masked protesters dressed in black, calling themselves anti-fascists, appeared from a side street and marched towards the rival group outside the hotel.
The two groups briefly clashed before police rushed in to separate them.
Image: Pic: PA
Image: Supporters of local protest group ‘Thistle Barbican needs to go – locals say no’. Pic: PA
Why are asylum hotels used?
The government is legally required to provide accommodation and subsistence to destitute asylum seekers while their claims are being decided, most of whom are prohibited from working.
A jump in the use of hotels since 2020 has been attributed to the impacts of the COVID pandemic, a backlog in unresolved asylum cases, and an increase in the number of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.
However, the number of asylum seekers living in hotels has fallen recently, from 38,079 at the end of 2024 to 32,345 at the end of March 2025, according to the Refugee Council.
How police tried to keep groups apart
The police imposed conditions on both groups in London to prevent “serious disorder” and minimise disruption to the community.
Those in the anti-asylum hotel protest were told to remain within King Charles Square, and to gather not before 1pm and wrap up by 4pm.
Those in the counter-protest were to required to stay in an area in Lever Street, and assemble only between 12pm and 4pm, but were still in eye and ear shot of the other group.
Chief Superintendent Clair Haynes, in charge of the policing operation, said: “We have been in discussions with the organisers of both protests in recent days, building on the ongoing engagement between local officers, community groups and partners.
“We understand that there are strongly held views on all sides.
“Our officers will police without fear or favour, ensuring those exercising their right to protest can do so safely, but intervening at the first sign of actions that cross the line into criminality.”
Meanwhile, the protest in Newcastle was promoted by online posts saying it was “for our children, for our future”.
The “stop the far right and fascists in Newcastle” counter-protest was organised by Stand Up To Racism at the nearby Laing Art Gallery.
A man has been remanded into custody charged with child cruelty offences after allegedly lacing sweets with sedatives.
Jon Ruben, 76, of Ruddington, Nottinghamshire, appeared at Leicester Magistrates’ Court on Saturday after youngsters fell ill at a summer camp in Stathern, Leicestershire.
He has been charged with three counts of wilfully assaulting, ill-treating, neglecting, abandoning or exposing children in a manner likely to cause them unnecessary suffering or injury to health.
The charges relate to three boys at the camp between 25-29 July.
Image: The scene in Stathern, Leicestershire. Pic: PA
Ruben spoke only to confirm his name, age and address.
Police received a report of children feeling unwell at a camp being held at Stathern Lodge, near Melton in Leicestershire, last Sunday.
Officers said paramedics attended the scene and eight boys – aged between eight and 11 – were taken to hospital as a precaution, as was an adult. They have since been discharged.
Police said the “owners and operators of Stathern Lodge are independent from those people who use or hire the lodge and are not connected to the incident”.
Leicestershire Police has referred itself to the Independent Office for Police Conduct, after officers initially reported the incident as having happened on Monday, only to later amend it to Sunday.
It is still unclear when officers responded and whether that is why the watchdog referral has been made.
Ruben will next appear at Leicester Crown Court on 29 August.