In recent years, Week 9 of the college football season has been good at shutting down fun upstart stories — or at least severely wounding them.

Think of unranked Wisconsin pummeling No. 9 Iowa, Mississippi State upsetting No. 12 Kentucky and Michigan State upending No. 6 Michigan in 2021. Or unranked Louisville upsetting No. 10 Wake Forest in 2022. Or Oregon blowing out No. 13 Utah in 2023 and No. 20 Illinois in 2024. Or Texas finishing off last season’s Diego Pavia-and-Vanderbilt episode. Before we get to November, where nearly everything we remember from a given season happens, we evidently have to declutter a bit.

Maybe that says foreboding things this week about Texas A&M, with its highest poll ranking in 30 years, playing a desperate LSU in Baton Rouge. Or an unbeaten BYU team playing at Iowa State. But how do the college football gods properly declutter this season? Who’s the upstart that falls when No. 10 Vanderbilt hosts No. 15 Missouri? How does an ACC race with five to seven contenders, none of whom were the preseason favorites, get cleaned up?

The 2025 season has broken containment, and as we careen toward November, let’s see if it’s even possible for it to start making sense. Here’s everything you need to follow in a cluttered Week 9.

Another huge SEC tripleheader

Though there’s a chance the SEC race gives us another Alabama-Georgia conference title game, I still believe we might have a major plot twist or two. Week 9 will help us figure out who might benefit from that plot twist, as the league again gives us a tripleheader of interesting matchups.

No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Tiger Stadium is typically an absolute cauldron at night; the home team has won eight straight in this series (six by multiple scores), and LSU is desperate after losses at Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. A&M coach Mike Elko’s most important task might be keeping his unbeaten Aggies dialed in amid an early sea of noise and emotion.

The next task will be scoring points. The Aggies have done plenty of that this season, but LSU ranks sixth in defensive SP+ and has yet to allow more than 10 points at home. The Tigers are better against the pass than the run, which could be an issue — even without the injured Le’Veon Moss, A&M averaged 6.2 yards per carry against Arkansas last week. But on third-and-3 or more, Marcel Reed and the Aggies are converting just 23.5% of the time, 129th nationally. Tiger Stadium can get awfully loud on third down.

LSU’s offense is showing signs of improvement. Even with leading receiver Aaron Anderson limited, the Tigers averaged 6.7 yards per play against South Carolina and Vanderbilt, though red zone failures kept the point totals tamped down. Tight end Trey’Dez Green is becoming a matchup nightmare, and LSU ran the ball well for once against Vanderbilt. If Garrett Nussmeier can complete even a couple of downfield passes, this becomes a very dangerous team. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting on that.

On passes thrown at least 25 yards downfield, Nussmeier is a shocking 1-for-16 this season. If you can’t create easy points from big plays, and you stink in the red zone, it becomes awfully difficult to score touchdowns.

A&M is No. 3 in the country, but the stakes are higher for the Tigers, both because they’ve run out of margin for error in the playoff hunt and because of the increasing heat on coach Brian Kelly. If the Aggies overcome this team and this environment, they are legit SEC, and potentially national title, contenders.

Current line: A&M -2.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 0.8 | FPI projection: A&M by 0.6

No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

On Oct. 18, 1947, No. 10 Vanderbilt hosted Bear Bryant’s 20th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. Led by soon-to-be All-America center Jay Rhodemyre, Kentucky controlled the line of scrimmage, allowing just 151 total yards and getting just enough offense from George Blanda & Co. to prevail 14-0. The Commodores fell out of the AP top 10 … and didn’t return for 78 years. But here they are, ranked 10th and hosting Missouri and “College GameDay” on Saturday.

The Tigers and Commodores have lost only to Alabama, and one will be 7-1 and in the thick of the SEC and playoff hunts heading into November. If Mizzou wins, it will likely be Bear Bryant Kentucky-style, via the line of scrimmage. Ends Zion Young and Damon Wilson II key a Tigers defense that ranks seventh in success rate*, and after struggling to get Ahmad Hardy and the run game going against Alabama and Auburn, Missouri could get some respite against a Vandy defense that ranks just 62nd in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks). The Commodores are good at limiting big plays, but Mizzou will have an opportunity to generate efficiency for quarterback Beau Pribula.

The Tigers better do that because Vandy’s offense is as efficient as they come: The Dores are first nationally in points per drive and third in success rate. The offensive line is excellent, backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young average 7.3 yards per carry, and quarterback Diego Pavia is the best improviser in the sport. The passing game isn’t particularly explosive, but it’s really hard to knock Vandy off-schedule.

(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third and fourth.)

Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 1.3

No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)

From importance and “styles make fights” perspectives, Ole Miss’ first trip to Norman is one of the most interesting games of the week. As with Mizzou-Vandy, the winner will be in solid shape in the SEC race and in great shape for the College Football Playoff. Everywhere you look, it’s either strength-versus-strength or weakness-versus-weakness.

Ole Miss offense: 12th in points per drive
Oklahoma defense: second in points per drive

Oklahoma offense: 65th in points per drive
Ole Miss defense: 70th in points per drive

Oklahoma boasts the most aggressive defense in college football: Opponents have gained zero or fewer yards on 44.0% of snaps, most in the country. Ole Miss, however, has by far the best offense the Sooners have faced to date. Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels just scored 35 points on a Georgia defense that had been allowing 17 per game. Chambliss’ No. 2 and 3 pass catchers (Deuce Alexander and tight end Dae’Quan Wright) are listed as questionable, but Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. can usually scheme up success.

Of course, Ole Miss also allowed 43 points to the Dawgs. The Rebels are awful against the run, but OU hasn’t established much in that regard. Oklahoma’s success comes via the pass, but Ole Miss is decent in that regard (despite a poor pass rush), and Sooners quarterback John Mateer has averaged just 4.5 yards per dropback since rushing back from a hand injury.

With the way Ole Miss faltered late against Georgia and the way OU’s offense has performed of late, I could be talked into a blowout in either direction here.

Current line: OU -5.5 (up from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.0 | FPI projection: OU by 1.3

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Who remains unbeaten?

We’re suddenly down to just six unbeaten teams: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, BYU and Navy. The Buckeyes are off, and we mentioned A&M above, but here’s what the other perfect teams have in store.

UCLA at No. 2 Indiana (noon, Fox)

Surely UCLA can’t do it again, right? In the past three weeks, the Bruins have wrecked Penn State’s season (and James Franklin’s tenure), further wrecked Michigan State’s and hastened Maryland’s October demise. Now, they get a shot at Curt Cignetti’s brilliant Indiana Hoosiers.

The Bruins have turned around their season by creating negative plays and turnovers on defense and running the ball with ruthless efficiency behind backs Jalen Berger, Anthony Frias II and Jaivian Thomas. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is making just enough plays with his legs to overcome his sack-prone tendencies. (He’s also practicing this week after suffering an injury against Maryland last Saturday.)

Of course, Indiana almost completely avoids negative plays and turnovers on offense and both defends the run aggressively and sacks QBs like few others (third nationally in sack rate). The Hoosiers should handle this test quite well, though at this point, it might be fair to ask, what doesn’t Indiana do well? Where might the Hoosiers be vulnerable to a challenge between now and what feels like an inevitable battle with Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game?

From a statistical standpoint, I can really find only two areas of concern.

1. The Hoosiers are strangely poor on fourth downs. They’re just 3-for-11 this season. Granted, this would be more of a problem if they weren’t fourth nationally in third-down conversion rate (54.9%), but something’s off there.

2. They’re sometimes too aggressive up front. They’re first nationally in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), but when they give up a successful rush, it’s a pretty big one. Big plays are holding them back at least slightly.

Granted, it’s hard to complain too much about a defense that ranks third nationally in points allowed per drive, but big plays have been known to create upsets.

Current line: Indiana -25.5 (up from -23.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 27.9 | FPI projection: Indiana by 26.4

No. 11 BYU at Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Fox)

Not too long ago, Iowa State was 5-0 with wins over rivals Kansas State and Iowa and a blowout of Arizona. But after losing cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams to ACL injuries, and with a nonexistent pass rush, the Cyclones gave up too many big plays in road losses to Cincinnati and Colorado. (The offense also failed in Boulder, turning 441 yards into just 17 points.)

What do you do when your unbeaten season is ruined? Try to ruin someone else’s! Coming off a bye week, ISU is somewhat surprisingly favored at home against unbeaten BYU. The Cougars have already survived a few tight Big 12 contests. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is a lower-efficiency, higher-explosiveness passer, and he’s making a difference in the run game. Can ISU make enough stops? If not, can Rocco Becht and the offense keep up in a track meet?

Current line: ISU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 1.2

Syracuse at No. 7 Georgia Tech (noon, ESPN)

Syracuse is 0-3 since quarterback Steve Angeli was lost for the season; Rickie Collins has thrown six interceptions in his past two games, and the Orange have lost to Duke, SMU and Pitt by an average of 33-11. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t amazing but is probably good enough to keep Syracuse stuck in neutral.

Meanwhile, the Tech offense is the best the Orange have faced since Week 1 against Tennessee. It would be great for the Yellow Jackets if they could handle this one easily enough that Haynes King isn’t forced to run a lot and take lots of hits for once.

Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 17.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 13.7

Florida Atlantic at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN)

FAU is a unique out. Zach Kittley’s Owls go for it on fourth down more than half the time, they play at the nation’s second-fastest tempo and they hunt big plays. Unfortunately, they also rank 120th in success rate and 124th in turnovers. Their aggressiveness often fails to produce points (or give their defense a rest), and they’ve lost four games by an average of 27 points. Blake Horvath and Navy are projected underdogs in each of their past four games — at North Texas, at Notre Dame, vs. USF, at Memphis — but they should move to 8-0 here.

Current line: Navy -15.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 19.3 | FPI projection: Navy by 11.1

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Two old Big Ten rivalries (and great trophies)

They know trophies in the Big Ten. They also know 5-2 records. Eight of the conference’s 18 teams are 5-2, and any of those teams that can win out and get to the finish line at 10-2 will be in the CFP conversation.

This weekend gives us two of the sport’s best trophy games involving three members of the 5-2 club.

Minnesota at Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)

It’s really hard to beat the Floyd of Rosedale, a 98-pound bronze pig that Minnesota and Iowa have been fighting over for 90 years. Iowa has held on to it (him?) for nine of the past 10 years.

Iowa is the projected favorite in this one, both because of home-field advantage and because the Hawkeyes can run the ball and defend the run. They’re 17th in rushing success rate, a massive upgrade over a couple of years ago, and though quarterback Mark Gronowski threw for just 68 yards in last week’s win over Penn State, he rushed for 130 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Iowa is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, not including sacks.

The ground game can be all that matters in an Iowa-Minnesota game, but Minnesota is putting a lot on redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey’s right arm, and he’s holding up mostly well despite an inefficient ground game (103rd in rushing success rate). The Gophers were also brilliant last week, sacking Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola nine times, getting a 16-for-20 performance from Lindsey and even getting 148 rushing yards from Darius Taylor in a 24-6 win.

Current line: Iowa -8.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 10.2 | FPI projection: Iowa by 8.7

No. 25 Michigan at Michigan State (7:30 p.m., NBC)

The Paul Bunyan Trophy is a pretty good reward in a series that has seen some recent momentum shifts. Michigan State won eight of 10 between 2008 and 2017 — a run that included one of the most shocking endings of the 21st century — but Michigan has won five of the past seven.

Both of these teams need this one. Michigan’s excellent 24-7 win over Washington last week laid out a scenario in which the Wolverines are 9-2 and riding a five-game winning streak when Ohio State visits.

MSU, on the other hand, just needs something positive. The Spartans have lost four straight, all by double digits. Quarterback Aidan Chiles showed flashes of improvement early, but the Spartans’ offensive effectiveness has trailed off. Second-year coach Jonathan Smith is beginning to show up on “hot seat” lists, and though that seems foolish to me — you don’t hire a guy because of his long-term program-building prowess, then drop him in less than two seasons — this will still almost certainly be State’s fourth losing season in a row.

Current line: Michigan -14.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 15.8 | FPI projection: Michigan by 14.6

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This week in the Group of 5

Memphis’ shocking loss to UAB last week threw the races for both the American title and the Group of 5’s guaranteed playoff bid into uncertainty, and at first glance, it seems like USF is best poised to take advantage. Guess who will play against each other this weekend? Memphis and USF! It’s the pretty obvious G5 game of the week, though I’ve got another interesting game to put on your radar, too.

No. 18 South Florida at Memphis (noon, ESPN2)

USF leaves no doubt. Apart from their 18-16 win over Florida, the Bulls have won five games by an average of 52-19 and suffered their lone loss (to Miami) 49-12. Alex Golesh’s offense is both ridiculously explosive and, thanks in part to quarterback Byrum Brown‘s legs, excellent on third downs. And after an average defensive SP+ ranking of 113.0 in Golesh’s first two seasons, the Bulls are currently 57th.

If last week was just a “stuff happens” loss for Memphis — interim-coached teams (like UAB) have been shockingly good so far this season — the Tigers should have plenty to offer, especially at home. They start and finish drives beautifully (eighth in three-and-out rate, third in red zone TD rate), and though their pass rush is problematic, they control the line of scrimmage against the run and force third-and-longs. They have an immediate chance to right last week’s wrongs and climb back to the top of the conference pecking order.

Current line: USF -4.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 5.4 | FPI projection: Memphis by 0.1

San Diego State at Fresno State (3:30 p.m., FS1)

If you’re looking for playoff alternatives outside of the American, take a gander at San Diego State. Starting with a 34-0 stomping of Cal, Sean Lewis’ Aztecs have won four straight, overachieving against SP+ projections by 17.3 points per game. They’re not reliable yet — they’ve scored 34-plus four times and under 14 twice, and they’ve allowed 7.4 points per game in wins and 36 in their lone loss. But corner Chris Johnson and edge rusher Trey White are two of the G5’s best playmakers, and if they can score enough against a solid Fresno State defense (not a given), their odds of reaching 11-1 improve considerably.

Current line: SDSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 6.1 | FPI projection: SDSU by 2.7

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It’s Dakota Marker time!

FCS: No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 2 South Dakota State (8 p.m., ESPNU)

South Dakota State lost coach Jimmy Rogers to Washington State and more than 20 transfers, including quarterback Mark Gronowski (Iowa), to FBS teams. North Dakota State lost a few stars, too, including running back CharMar Brown (Miami) and safety Cole Wisniewski (Texas Tech). The transfer portal can hit you especially, hard even at the FCS level.

Oh right, I almost forgot: NDSU and SDSU are a combined 14-0 this season.

SDSU’s stats have slipped slightly, though big quarterback Chase Mason has 1,419 passing yards and thrown 11 touchdowns and one interception, and the pass defense is as nasty as ever, with 12 interceptions and 18 sacks in seven games. NDSU, however, has established a level of dominance we haven’t seen from the Bison in a while. The defending FCS champs have outscored opponents by an average of 44-10, and only one opponent has stayed closer than 27 points. Quarterback Cole Payton is producing Mason-like stats, and the receiver trio of Bryce Lance, RaJa Nelson and Reis Kessel is averaging 20.1 yards per catch. Based on their current SP+ rating, the Bison would be in the top 40 in FBS.

We’ve seen intriguing performances from programs such as Tarleton State (third in SP+) and Harvard (fourth), but until proven otherwise, these remain FCS’ defining programs. And for the third time since 2022, the Dakota Marker is a 1-versus-2 battle. The No. 2 team won both of the previous games, and it wouldn’t be a shock if SDSU pulled off a home upset. But it would definitely be an upset — the Bison have been at a different level thus far.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 6.9

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Week 9 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. We ended a three-week losing streak with a two-fer last week, so we’re back to 4-4 for the year.

This week, we set our sights on the Big 12. SP+ says there’s only a 54% chance that Cincinnati (75% win probability against Baylor), Utah (86% against Colorado), TCU (84% against West Virginia) and Texas Tech (99% against Oklahoma State) all win. I say there’s a 0% chance!

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Week 9 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

California at Virginia Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN). After the turmoil of the past few years, Cal reaching 5-2 is a cool story. But the Golden Bears have gotten here while beating only one team better than 90th in SP+. Virginia Tech is only 91st, but the interim-coached Hokies have been more competitive over the past month and are favored despite their 2-5 record.

Current line: Tech -4.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 0.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 6.6

Early Saturday

Auburn at Arkansas (12:45 p.m., SECN). This is easily the most stylistically interesting game of the week in the SEC. In league play, Auburn games have averaged 32.8 total points, while Arkansas games have averaged 76.0. It’s like the two teams are playing different sports at the moment, though they’re both losing at those sports. (Combined SEC record: 0-7.)

Current line: Arkansas -2.5 (flipped from Auburn -1.5) | SP+ projection: Auburn by 0.3 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 0.2

Northwestern at Nebraska (noon, FS1). Something has clicked for Northwestern: The Wildcats have won four in a row, and over the past three, they’ve overachieved against SP+ projections by 19.6 points per game. Nebraska is favored for a reason, but Matt Rhule’s Huskers were pretty poor in last week’s loss to Minnesota, and Northwestern’s defense is just as good as the Gophers’.

Current line: Huskers -8.5 | SP+ projection: Huskers by 12.0 | FPI projection: Huskers by 7.2

Kansas State at Kansas (noon, TNT). Kansas State’s past three games have been its best three of the season, and the sight of Kansas on the other sideline tends to bring out the Wildcats’ best — they haven’t lost the Sunflower Showdown since 2008. Kansas got a week off to recover from a humbling loss at Texas Tech; in which direction does the Jayhawks’ season go from here?

Current line: KU -2.5 | SP+ projection: KU by 5.0 | FPI projection: KU by 1.7

No. 16 Virginia at North Carolina (noon, ACCN). UVA tried pretty hard to lose to Washington State at home last week, while UNC went across the country and played its best game of 2025. It’s at least conceivable that Bill Belichick’s Heels can pull a surprise. Still, UVA’s offense is so clean, with minimal negative plays and efficiency via run and pass, that the Cavaliers get the benefit of the doubt.

Current line: UVA -10.5 (up from -8.5) | SP+ projection: UVA by 12.6 | FPI projection: UVA by 11.9

SMU at Wake Forest (noon, The CW). These teams went a combined 4-4 in September but are 5-0 in October. Wake plays great defense with the most all-or-nothing offense you’ll see, and SMU’s defense has rounded back into form after a poor start. The Mustangs need this one for ACC contention, but Jake Dickert has Wake moving in a very fun direction.

Current line: SMU -3.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 4.1 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.8

Saturday afternoon

No. 23 Illinois at Washington (3:30 p.m., BTN). Washington has averaged just 12.3 points per game against top-15 defenses (per SP+) and 51.3 against defenses ranked 85th or lower. Illinois’ defense is in the middle (48th), so I guess we assume the Huskies score 30 or so? Illinois can probably hit that mark against a shaky-but-improving UW defense, too. This should be fun.

Current line: UW -3.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 3.7 | FPI projection: UW by 2.9

No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). After a blowout loss at home, South Carolina turned around its 2024 season by nearly toppling Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning six straight. The circumstances are even worse for the Gamecocks this time — last week’s 19-point loss to Oklahoma dropped them to 3-4 — but maybe they still have a turnaround in them? Maybe Alabama suffers a letdown after four straight wins against ranked teams? Possibly? Yeah, I’m not convinced either.

Current line: Bama -12.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 10.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 10.7

Baylor at No. 21 Cincinnati (4 p.m., ESPN2). Baylor lives to entertain: Five of the Bears’ seven games have topped 60 total points, and they’re 19th in offensive SP+ and 98th on defense. Cincinnati doesn’t mind a good track meet, but the Bearcats’ bend-don’t-break defense has improved of late. With games against Utah and BYU looming, Cincy’s Big 12 title hopes would take a hit with an upset loss.

Current line: Cincy -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 10.9 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.5

No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State (SECN). Mississippi State is 0-3 in SEC play, but two losses went down to the wire. So did Texas’ frustrating overtime win at Kentucky last week. The MSU offense is quickly losing steam, but the Texas offense hasn’t really had any. One assumes the elite Texas defense drives another win, but this could be tight for a while.

Current line: Horns -7.5 | SP+ projection: Horns by 7.2 | FPI projection: Horns by 9.5

Western Michigan at Miami (Ohio) (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). WMU probably didn’t want a bye last week — the smoking-hot Broncos have won four straight since an 0-3 start, overachieving against projections by 21.3 points per game. Now, they trek to Oxford to face a Miami team that has also gone from 0-3 to 4-3. The winner of this one heads into November’s midweek MACtion slate as the conference title favorite.

Current line: Miami -1.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 2.5 | FPI projection: Miami by 0.5

Oklahoma State at No. 14 Texas Tech (4 p.m., ESPNU). With quarterback Behren Morton injured, Tech suffered its first blemish of the season at Arizona State last week. Backup Will Hammond appears likely to start again Saturday, but even without Morton (or tortillas), one assumes the Red Raiders should manhandle an OSU team that has fallen to an almost inconceivable 121st in SP+.

Current line: Tech -38.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 39.3 | FPI projection: Tech by 34.6

Saturday evening

Houston at No. 24 Arizona State (8 p.m., ESPN2). ASU has won 11 of its past 13 Big 12 games, and both of the losses were without Sam Leavitt. After Saturday’s injury-aided victory over Tech, the Sun Devils could be in great shape to return to the conference title game with a win here. But they’ll have to take on a strong Houston defense without star receiver Jordyn Tyson (hamstring), and Houston’s offense is coming off two strong performances.

Current line: ASU -6.5 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: ASU by 0.9 | FPI projection: ASU by 6.0

No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky (SECN). Kentucky showed signs of life for the first time in a while against Texas. Was that the start of something or a last gasp? If it’s the former, Tennessee has underachieved against SP+ projections for five straight games and could be vulnerable after last week’s demoralizing loss to Bama. If it’s the latter, never mind.

Current line: Vols -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Vols by 10.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 7.3

Stanford at No. 9 Miami (7 p.m., ESPN). Consider this a good temperature check for Miami after its first setback of the season against Louisville. The Hurricanes will likely roll over Stanford regardless, but with a big trip to SMU looming, now’s the time for a bounce-back game from quarterback Carson Beck and fewer missed tackles from the defense.

Current line: Miami -29.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 29.4 | FPI projection: Miami by 26.6

Wisconsin at No. 6 Oregon (7 p.m., FS1). Against teams ranked worse than 60th in SP+, Oregon has gone 5-0 with an average score of 51-9. Wisconsin is most certainly worse than 60th. In fact, after back-to-back shutout losses, the Badgers would probably take the nine points if offered. Hmm. Tell me why I listed this game?

Current line: Ducks -32.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 31.6 | FPI projection: Ducks by 29.4

Late Saturday

Colorado at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN). Utah needs to win out to keep its conference title hopes alive and is favored in each remaining game. But quarterback Devon Dampier is listed as questionable after an injury against BYU, and Colorado has dropped hints of defensive competence. Kaidon Salter and the Buffaloes also have some big-play potential on offense. This one might not be a gimme.

Current line: Utah -12.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 11.2

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Besides Dakota Marker, here are three games you should track.

FCS: No. 16 Presbyterian at Dayton (12 p.m., YouTube). We’re getting pretty used to incredible turnaround stories in college football — hello, Indiana and Vanderbilt — but hello, Presbyterian. In their first 16 years in FCS, the Blue Hose averaged 2.8 wins per season and won more than four games once. They were known primarily for hiring the Never Punts guy in 2021, and they went 1-10 in 2022, Steve Englehart’s first year in charge. But they won their last four games of 2024, three by blowouts, to jump to 6-6 and 85th in FCS SP+.

Seven games into 2025, Englehart’s team is unbeaten and up to 16th! They’re outscoring opponents by an average of 41-14. From quarterback Collin Hurst to a secondary that has picked off 10 passes, they have no obvious weaknesses, and they’re charging toward their first FCS playoff bid. This one could be tricky, though, because Dayton is up to 31st in SP+. Last week’s tight loss to Butler ended a five-game winning streak, but the Flyers are allowing only 16.1 points per game.

SP+ projection: Presbyterian by 4.9.

Division II: No. 18 Grand Valley State at No. 1 Ferris State (1 p.m., FloCollege). Always make room for the Anchor-Bone Classic! Top-ranked Ferris State looks as good as ever despite having lost quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss) and several other offensive stars to high-level FBS rosters. Redshirt freshman quarterback Wyatt Bower is posting even better numbers than Chambliss did, as the assembly line keeps cranking out talent. GVSU, however, needs this one. The Lakers are 4-2 after an upset loss to Saginaw Valley State last week, and their playoff résumé might not withstand another defeat.

SP+ projection: Ferris State by 12.9.

Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 9 Wisconsin-Whitewater (2 p.m., local streaming). Three weeks into my favorite small-school conference title race — D-III’s Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference — we have a glorious six-team logjam at 2-1. No. 12 Wisconsin-La Crosse hosts No. 24 Wisconsin-Oshkosh in one matchup of 2-1 teams, but the big one’s in Whitewater, Wisconsin, where two top-five defenses, per SP+, will likely dictate one of the sport’s most physical games at any level.

SP+ projection: UWW by 4.1.

TORONTO — Thirty-two years of frustration and failure, of disappointment and self-loathing, of trauma worn as a badge of honour, burst in magnificent fashion Friday night. The sixth inning of Game 1 of the World Series was an exorcism. Toronto, one of the world’s great metropolises, a city that has loved its baseball team through decades of it not loving back, screamed and bellowed and remembered what championship baseball looked like. And the Toronto Blue Jays, architects of an 11-4 devastation of the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers, did more than just author one of the greatest offensive innings in World Series history.

They showed the world what they were already certain of coming into the 121st World Series: They are no pushovers.

“We’ve had a genuine feeling for a long time that if we just played a certain brand of baseball, that we then will win the game,” Toronto right-hander Chris Bassitt said, and he’s right. In an era of copious strikeouts, the Blue Jays don’t. In a time of shoddy defense, the Blue Jays play clean. And even against a juggernaut like the Dodgers, a team full of late bloomers and second chancers can look like a dominant force.

Nothing personified that like the bottom of the sixth. It was one of the great half-innings in World Series history, a nine-run frenzy filled with everything the Blue Jays’ offense does well. Toronto entered the series with by far the best offense in Major League Baseball this postseason, scoring 6½ runs a game, nearly two more than the Dodgers. The sixth illustrated how.

Starting with a six-pitch walk, adding a single, drawing a hit-by-pitch on the ninth pitch of the at-bat and chasing two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell set the tone. A single scored the first run and gave the Blue Jays a 3-2 advantage. A nine-pitch walk scored another run and a single added one more. And after a tapper to the mound drew the first out on a force play at home, Blue Jays manager John Schneider called on his third pinch hitter of the inning, Addison Barger.

The past week has been hectic for Barger. On Monday night, the Blue Jays ousted the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series to clinch the pennant. Barger said the next morning, he flew to meet his wife at the hospital for the birth of their third child. A day later, he flew back to Toronto for the Blue Jays’ workout — but didn’t have anywhere to stay.

“They set up a place, but I was like, for a few days, I’m not paying for a hotel room,” Barger said. “I know that sounds crazy, but I’m just trying to save a buck.”

So after crashing on the couch of Blue Jays outfielder Myles Straw for a couple of days, Barger spent Friday night with teammate Davis Schneider, sleeping on a pullout couch in the living room of the hotel suite that overlooks Rogers Centre from center field. Barger wasn’t exactly comfortable — Schneider said he heard squeaks from the bed as Barger tried to find peace — but it didn’t impede him from unleashing the biggest hit of his young career.

On a 2-2 slider from reliever Anthony Banda, Barger rocketed a ball over the center-field wall for the first pinch-hit grand slam in World Series history, unleashing chaos inside the domed stadium, where primal screams bounced off the roof and reverberated to create a tsunami of sound.

The Blue Jays’ expertise in this style is nothing new — they won the most games in the AL this season precisely because they’re so adept at grinding at-bats like sandpaper to pitchers’ souls — but to see it on this stage, against a Dodgers team that limited Milwaukee to four runs in the National League Championship Series, hammered home that Toronto will not be just another layover on Los Angeles’ path to back-to-back championships.

The deluge continued. A Vladimir Guerrero Jr. single. Another home run, from catcher Alejandro Kirk, who went 3-for-3 and had drawn a nine-pitch walk in the first, when the Blue Jays made Snell throw 29 pitches and forecast his early exit. All told, Toronto saw 44 pitches, scored nine runs — the third most in a World Series inning and the most since 1968 — and turned a 2-2 nailbiter into an 11-2 stomping.

This is who the Blue Jays are. They’ve got a superstar (Guerrero) and a veteran of playoff wars (George Springer) and a returning All-Star (Bo Bichette, who played for the first time since Sept. 6, at a position, second base, that he hadn’t played since he was in Triple-A six years ago). The rest of their lineup is stocked with players who have bought into Toronto’s philosophy that as long as the Blue Jays don’t beat themselves, they’re good enough to outlast anybody — even a team as talented as the Dodgers.

“If we don’t strike out and we don’t give outs away and we essentially don’t beat ourselves and don’t give up home runs, we’re going to win the game,” Bassitt said. “It’s not about facing any team. It’s just the belief in our team that no matter who we play, this brand can win.”

It’s the kind of brand that has made the city fall in love with the Jays again. Toronto knows baseball heartbreak. After consecutive championships in 1992 and 1993, the Blue Jays fell into a pattern of perpetual mediocrity. Even when they were good in the mid-2010s, they fell short in the ALCS. Their previous three postseason berths ended in wild-card series sweeps. They tried to get Shohei Ohtani in free agency. He went to the Dodgers. They tried to get Juan Soto in free agency. He went to the New York Mets. The Blue Jays, snakebitten for decades, entered 2025 with little hope for a turnaround.

Baseball is funny that way, though. Sometimes, a team coalesces around an idea, and that idea turns into an ethos, and that ethos fuels a revolution. And the Dodgers are so good that all of this joy, this wellspring of emotion and excitement, could be short-lived. Maybe this was the apex of a season that was great, just not great enough.

Or perhaps the 44,353 at Rogers Centre were onto something when, with two outs in the ninth and Ohtani at the plate, a chant started to percolate through the stadium.

“We don’t need you,” Blue Jays fans said to the best player in the world. They didn’t need him this season. They didn’t need him Friday. They didn’t need him going forward.

It was hubristic, but that’s understandable. For the past 32 years, Toronto hasn’t experienced a night like this. The Blue Jays have had moments, sure. The Jose Bautista bat flip. The Edwin Encarnacion home run. All of it, ultimately, for naught. This time, though? With this team of true believers? In a city that’s living a dream?

The rest of the World Series will provide the answer. On this night, however, it was true. The Toronto Blue Jays needed only themselves. And they were plenty.

TORONTO — The bases were loaded with none out, Game 1 of the World Series was still tied, and a sold-out Rogers Centre crowd was going berserk when Emmet Sheehan came out of the bullpen in Friday’s sixth inning.

Sheehan is a 25-year-old with fewer than 150 career innings in the major leagues. Before that moment, he had checked into the middle of an inning only once before, while following an opener Sept. 15. What followed — a nine-run barrage that propelled the Toronto Blue Jays to an 11-4 rout in their first World Series game in 32 years — highlighted a glaring weakness the Los Angeles Dodgers carry into this final round:

If their starters don’t pitch deep into games, they’re in trouble.

“Just a tough game,” Dodgers ace Blake Snell said after recording just 15 outs, “but a lot to learn.”

On the eve of this World Series, the Dodgers learned Alex Vesia, one of their best relievers, was dealing with what the team described as a “deeply personal family matter” that would force his removal from the roster. Vesia’s absence essentially whittled down the list of trusted high-leverage relievers to four: Sheehan, Anthony Banda, Blake Treinen and Roki Sasaki. Two of them, Sheehan and Sasaki, are converted starting pitchers.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hoped to give Sheehan only clean innings in these playoffs. But when Snell’s 100th pitch plunked Daulton Varsho in the upper back to load the bases with the score tied 2-2, it was Sheehan who was called to clean up the mess. When he put the next three hitters on base, it was Banda’s turn. And by the end of Banda’s outing — featuring the first pinch-hit grand slam in World Series history, courtesy of Addison Barger, and a two-run homer by Alejandro Kirk — the Blue Jays had become the first team to score at least nine runs in a World Series inning since the Detroit Tigers in 1968.

“We just didn’t make pitches when we needed to to keep that game close,” Roberts said.

Sheehan allowed an RBI single to Ernie Clement on his second pitch, giving the Blue Jays a 3-2 lead, their first of the game. Then, he lost pinch-hitter Nathan Lukes on a full count, issuing a bases-loaded walk, and left a changeup over the plate that Andres Gimenez lined for another run-scoring single. Banda was called on to face the left-handed-hitting Barger, but Banda’s 2-1 slider caught too much of the plate, resulting in the 413-foot home run that elated Blue Jays fans. Three batters later, Kirk hit Banda’s 1-0 fastball near the middle of the zone 403 feet.

It was the first time Banda had allowed two home runs in an appearance, and it came at the worst time.

“I just didn’t do a very good job of executing,” Banda said.

With Vesia off the roster, Evan Phillips recovering from Tommy John surgery and Michael Kopech no longer considered viable, Banda and Treinen are the only remaining back-end relievers from last year’s bullpen-fueled championship run. The two relievers signed over the offseason to supplement that group, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, struggled throughout the year and were not deemed healthy enough to crack the World Series roster. It’s why Treinen and Banda are so critical, even during up-and-down seasons. It’s why Sheehan, a breakout starting pitcher who has allowed seven runs in 3⅔ innings this postseason, needs to pitch better.

“With the construct of our pen, we’re going to need them,” Roberts said. “We’ve got a long way to go, a lot of baseball, but they certainly got to make good pitches.”

The Dodgers’ pitching staff held the Milwaukee Brewers to four runs while sweeping them in the National League Championship Series, during which they deployed only their best pitchers. Sasaki, Vesia and the Dodgers’ four starters — Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani — accounted for all but nine of the Dodgers’ outs in that series, a byproduct of their rotation’s dominance.

In this series, though, they face a Blue Jays lineup that is every bit as patient but far more powerful than Milwaukee’s. Snell, lacking his typical fastball command and struggling to locate his changeup, needed 29 pitches to escape the first inning and ran his pitch count into the triple digits before recording his first out in the sixth. In five-plus innings, he allowed eight hits and issued three walks. When he exited, the bullpen was tasked with recording 12 outs.

Before the relievers recorded just three, the game was essentially over.

“We’re confident,” Snell said of a Dodgers team that entered the World Series with a 9-1 record in these playoffs. “We know how good we are. That was a tough game, and then they came out swinging it and had a better game. It’s four games. You got to win four.”